Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
So what do you do when it’s May 1 and your favourite major-league team looks like it’s lost a fight with a cement mixer? You go look at the minor-leaguers, of course, especially since they’re the ones upon whom this franchise is really being constructed. The Blue Jays are rebuilding at every level of the system, and despite the sorry recent results in Toronto, there’s reason for solid optimism for the future.

This is the first in what I hope will be a series of monthly updates on the progress (or lack thereof) of key Blue Jays prospects and other denizens of the organization’s minor-league system. Not all prospects are accounted for, just the ones with notable performances thus far. All stats are current through April 29. Here we go.


AAA Syracuse Skychiefs
International League


The good

Jimmy Alvarez, 2B
46 AB, 6 R, .304/.340/.457, 3 BB, 7 K, 0 HR, 0 SB
Holding his own pretty well so far, Jimmy gives reason to think he could actually improve on this line: he drew 79 walks at AA last year, cracked 8 HRs and stole 20 bases (though granted, he was caught 11 times and struck out in 121 trips to the plate). He still projects as just a utility infielder, but it’s not like the incumbent at second base in Toronto ran away and hid with the job.

Reed Johnson, RF
46 AB, 8 R, .348/.396/.565, 1 BB, 6 K
That must sting, huh? Finally promoted to the big leagues, you play solid baseball for your 20 minutes in a Toronto uniform, and you get sent right back down again. Johnson is scrapping hard to return to the majors: his OBP results from four HBPs (against a solitary walk). He’s a perfect fourth OF and is probably better than about a dozen guys currently starting in the majors, and he’ll get his chance. That average will drop, though.

Josh Towers, RHP
5 G, 5 GS, 3.38, 29 IP, 29 H, 7 BB, 16 K
And to think, we all supposed that Syracuse would mop up the International League this year. Josh Towers has been by far the Skychiefs’ best pitcher so far. And frankly, his supporting stats are mediocre: that ERA is going to get launched soon. It’s been an ugly start for the Skychiefs, losing 6 consecutive games to rain and snow at one point. They should all improve, but AA is the hot spot in the farm system right now.

The bad

Corey Thurman, RHP
4 G, 4 GS, 4.50, 20 IP, 21 H, 9 BB, 16 K
Exhibit A in the “They’re Better Than This” case. Thurman got beaten up pretty good in two starts, but otherwise has been very effective, hurling a one-hitter over 6 innings his last time out. He’ll improve that line in a hurry as the weather warms up, and should probably be in Toronto before September.

Vinny Chulk, RHP
4 G, 4 GS, 5.95, 19 IP, 20 H, 11 BB, 11 K
Vinny, meet the Finesse-Pitcher-Destroying AAA Wall. Wall, meet Vinny.

Mike Smith, RHP
4 G, 3 GS, 8.15, 17 IP, 21 H, 10 BB, 8 K
Mike, meet the Six-Year-Free-Agent List. List, meet Mike.

The otherwise notable

Kevin Cash, C
60 AB, 3 R, .250/.297/.317, 3 BB, 11 K, 4 2B, 0 HR
Cash has shown both better power and more patience than this. He should come around, so long as Ken Huckaby’s down there teaching him about catching, not hitting.

Brian Bowles, RHP
11 G, 0 GS, 0.63, 6 Saves, 14 IP, 10 H, 10 BB, 10 K
See, bad organizations, they stop reading after the first four stats. The last four paint a truer picture of one of last season’s Toronto bullpen punching bags.

DeWayne Wise, CF
75 AB, 9 R, .213/.250/.387, 4 BB, 17 K, 4 2B, 3 HR
The window of opportunity is closed, locked, and had the curtains drawn over.


AA New Haven Ravens
Eastern League


The good

Gabe Gross, RF
72 AB, 13 R, .347/.460/.514, 13 BB, 10 K, 2 HR
Now that’s more like it. Gross, who started off his last AA campaign 7-for-71 and struggled to recover his form, is making sure that doesn’t happen again. Through 18 games, his OPS is a sterling 974. The power is coming slowly – 6 doubles and 2 HR – but with his smooth batting stroke, it will indeed come. Gabe recently fouled a ball hard off his foot – the same one he injured last year – but he was okay. Gross is back on track, and should be in Syracuse by July.

Simon Pond, 3B
74 AB, 19 R, .378/.516/.622, 18 BB, 7 K, 7 2B, 3 HR
Wow. The guy’s not a true prospect, not at 26, but a 1.138 OPS is near-impossible to ignore at any level, especially AA. Pond has spent April locked in: twice as many walks as strikeouts in the early going, with solid power. Now keep in mind, he went .284/.357/.479 at Single-A Dunedin last year, so this is out of character, to say the least. If he can keep it up, maybe he could be a throw-in to a July Kelvim Escobar deal. Though at this point, Escobar would be the throw-in to a Simon Pond deal.

Alexis Rios, CF
49 AB, 12 R, .449/.481/.653, 2 BB, 6 K
Speaking of wow. Unlike Pond, Rios is a prospect, but he’s obviously not this good, and an injury has reduced his sample size of at-bats. Two walks in 49 ABs is less than even his usual unimpressive rate, but I’m not gonna rag on a guy hitting .449 here. Rios is an extreme contact hitter, with few strikeouts and fewer walks, and with three doubles, two triples and a homer so far, he’s still developing the power that’s expected. Let’s see what range his numbers settle into when the hot streak ends.

Guillermo Quiroz, C
66 AB, 17 R, .333/.389/.712, 6 BB, 16 K, 7 2B, 6 HR
Are we out of wows yet? I spoke rather dismissively of Quiroz in my pre-season evaluation of the Blue Jays’ minor-leaguers, and he clearly printed out my assessment and pinned it to his locker. Q, I regret dissing you so supremely. But you have to admit, after going .260/.330/.421 at High-A ball last year, your first good season with the bat, your performance thus far is unbelievable. And to be honest, I don’t entirely believe it. As great and commendable as this has been, let’s check back in a month to see how he’s doing.

Jason Arnold, RHP
4 G, 4 GS, 0.77, 23 IP, 11 H, 8 BB, 20 K
In terms of advancement, he’s clearly Toronto’s best pitching prospect. Arnold is doing everything right: the H/IP, K/IP and BB/K ratios are all good in the early going (okay, maybe the command could be a little better, but no biggie). Despite the sterling start, I’d like to see him stay in New Haven a few more months, in order to give him one full year at the AA level. Syracuse by July? Without any doubt.

The otherwise notable

John-Ford Griffin, LF
77 AB, 10 R, .234/.326/.481, 11 BB, 22 K, 7 2B, 4 HR
Replace half those Ks with hits and Griffin would be in the section above. The walks and power look just fine; he’ll pull up the average.

Dominic Rich, 2B
26 AB, 5 R, .269/.387/.308, 4 BB, 3 K
Slowed by a groin injury, but the batting eye is still as sharp as ever. No need for concern.

Cameron Reimers, RHP
4 G, 4 GS, 2.92, 24 IP, 17 H, 5 BB, 18 K
Was battered at AA and AAA last year, but he's throwing darts now. Turns 25 this fall, though.

Rich Thompson, OF
77 AB, 19 R, .338/.402/.364, 4 BB, 8 K, 7 SB, 0 CS
My sentimental favourite prospect, hitting and running the way he does best. Serious July trade bait.


High-A Dunedin Blue Jays
Florida State League


The good

Dustin McGowan, RHP
6 G, 6 GS, 1.97, 32 IP, 22 H, 10 BB, 25 K
Continuing his steady climb up the organizational ladder, former supplementary first-round high-schooler McGowan is showing off good command and allowing fewer hits per inning. His Ks are down slightly, which could just be a sign he’s learning to pitch more economically. He’ll likely be here all season, unless the strikeouts really jump. As solid a pitching prospect as you can get at A-Ball.

David Bush, RHP
6 G, 6 GS, 4.61, 27 IP, 24 H, 4 BB, 23 K
In his first pro experience last year in Auburn (in relief, not starting), Bush blew everyone away (39 Ks in 22 IP), with ordinary control (7 BB). This year in High-A, his strikeouts are down (though still around one per inning), but his control has improved markedly. His ERA is high, but I’m not terribly concerned, not with that outstanding BB/K ratio (4/23). All systems go.

Russ Adams, SS
108 AB, 18 R, .283/.369/.358, 12 BB, 11 K, 5 SB, 1 CS
In his first full season of professional ball at the High-A level, Adams is holding his own. The BA and OBP are fine, though the power has yet to emerge (just 7 extra-base hits, no HRs), and these numbers certainly aren’t overwhelming. But considering he hit just .231 in 147 Dunedin at-bats last fall, and that he was finishing exams this time in 2002, this is very good progress, and the power will arrive eventually. If he cranks that OBP to .400, New Haven will be in his near future.

Jordan DeJong, RHP
11 G, 0 GS, 0.00, 12 IP, 6 H, 8 BB, 13 K, 7 Saves
Sure, minor-league closers aren’t usually worth tracking. But DeJong, who was a starter in college, has been drawing raves for his performance. Better command is all he needs to be working on at the moment: he walked 10 in 44 innings in Rookie League last summer, so this is nothing new. If he can sharpen his control, his arrival in Toronto could be sooner than many expect.

The bad

Jason Perry, DH
47 AB, 3 R, .213/.321/.319, 7 BB, 19 K
A cold streak, or a little overmatched? Perry destroyed the Pioneer League as a 22-year-old last summer, and did well enough in a late-season promotion to Dunedin. But he’s off to a rough start this year: 19 Ks in 47 AB is bad. But 7 walks is quite good. He should turn it around pretty soon; if not, I hear Charleston is lovely in May.

Neomar Flores, RHP
9 G, 0 GS, 7.36, 14 IP, 20 H, 12 BB, 7 K
His K/IP ratio at Charleston last year was unimpressive, though his other stats looked great. So you see why we like K/IP.

The otherwise notable

Chad Pleiness, RHP
5 G, 5 GS, 3.91, 25 IP, 24 H, 10 BB, 23 K
Averaging almost a strikeout an inning, but the big guy's allowing too many baserunners so far.

Derrick Nunley, RHP
7 G, 0 GS, 3.00, 12 IP, 10 H, 7 BB, 16 K
Similar ratios here last year resulted in a 4.81 ERA. A breakthrough or a one-month mirage?


Charleston Alley-Cats
South Atlantic League


The good

Vince Perkins, RHP
5 G, 5 GS, 0.92, 29 IP, 10 H, 15 BB, 39 K, 0 HR
Okay, you can take this line seriously. Even in the Sally, nobody can touch this young Canadian’s H/IP and K/IP line. Perkins’ command is improving from his stint in short-season Auburn last year, though at 4.4 walks per 9 IP, it still needs work. But am I complaining here? I am not. Another month to consolidate these impressive gains will probably precede a promotion.

Brandon League, RHP
5 G, 5 GS, 2.22, 28 IP, 25 H, 7 BB, 21 K
The Hawaiian high schooler with the mid-90s fastball is doing quite well, thank you. He’s still pretty raw and working on reliable secondary and thirdary pitches, but this 2002 draft choice is doing all the right things. He’s not ready for a level jump yet – the K/IP is 3/4, and you’d like to see a little more dominance of opposing bats at this level. He’s coming along fine, though.

Sandy Nin, RHP
5 G, 5 GS, 1.82, 29 IP, 25 H, 4 BB, 24 K
This is nice. Nin is improving his K/IP and BB/K numbers in his second go-round the South Atlantic League – the command is particularly impressive. Nin has electric stuff, and it bodes well that he’s able to harness it so early in his career. Again, let’s check in with him in June to see how he’s holding up, but I think he’ll be in Dunedin pretty soon. He’s a sleeper.

The bad

Nom Siriveaw, 1B/3B/OF
52 AB, 4 R, .115/.193/.154, 5 BB, 17 K
The less fortunate Charleston Canuck, Siriveaw started the year in a 2-for-43 spin, which gave him an unreal line of .047/.128/.070. Put differently, he had more walks (4) than total bases (3). Siriveaw’s better than this, and he’s starting to come around, but sometimes slumps can get inside your head and become confidence killers, as Gabe Gross can attest.

Adam Peterson, RHP
5 G, 0 GS, 5.19, 8 IP, 9 H, 10 BB, 2 K, 3 WP
Last year’s fourth-round draft choice is, how you say, struggling. His numbers last year were respectable, low 3.00s ERA and reasonable control; this came out of the blue. There’s no indication of whether he’s hurt, he’s slumping, or if he’s gone Ankiel, but here’s hoping this nightmare ends soon.

The otherwise notable

Rodney Medina, LF
91 AB, 17 R, .286/.330/.516, 6 BB, 16 K, 4 HR, 1 SB
Charleston’s leadoff man had only 3 HRs in 339 AB last season. Nautilus is your friend.

Justin Owens, DH
64 AB, 11 R, 14 BB, 17 K, .297/.423/.438, 1 HR
Last year’s Auburn MVP has started another strong-OBP, low-power season.

D.J. Hanson, RHP
5 G, 5 GS, 4.24, 23 IP, 20 H, 12 BB, 22 K
Coming off a strong performance at Low-A, Hanson’s struggling a little. Good K’s, though, bode well.


So there's your April roundup. No point getting too high or too low on anyone -- one month's results don't tell you a whole lot, especially with the lousy weather hampering games in the regions where three of the four teams play. But there's solid progress to report on a number of key players. This time last year, Gabe Gross was hitting his body temperature and Jason Arnold was property of Billy Beane, so things are inarguably looking up for this system. Comments are welcome, and I can fill you in on any prospects not listed here. Thanks for reading, and we'll do this again June 1.









Farm Report: April | 14 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_coliver - Thursday, May 01 2003 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#102866) #
What has happened to Jossephang Bernhardt? He began the season with Dunedin, but he dissapeared from the roster around April 20. Is he injured? Has he been released? Or did he get "homesick" and return to the Dominican Republic like he did in 2000?
Dave Till - Thursday, May 01 2003 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#102867) #
Bernhardt is hitting .118 (with an OBP of .167 and a slugging percentage of .147) this season, so I don't think it matters much one way or another.
_Jordan - Thursday, May 01 2003 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#102868) #
Bernhardt was indeed released in April, closing a particularly ignominous chapter in the Big Book of Blue Jays Latin American Signings.
robertdudek - Thursday, May 01 2003 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#102869) #
Gideon,

Would you consider listing strikeouts per batter faced for pitchers in your synopses? In my opinion, it is the most important stat for a minor league pitcher.
Coach - Thursday, May 01 2003 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#102870) #
(Cash) should come around, so long as Ken Huckaby’s down there teaching him about catching, not hitting.

Good line about a real plus. Kevin can stop the running game, but he's not likely to adjust to big league pitching right away. Expect him to pop the occasional homer with a Huckaby-like average until he's been up for a year or two. It's worth trying Cash as the Jays #1 in the second half; Wilson will still have value at C vs. southpaws and pinch-hitting, Myers can make spot starts, be a mentor to the kid, and is a good lefty bat off the bench. Quiroz moves up to AAA, where Huck can impart some wisdom to both prospects. Hard to draw it up any better; Frankencatcher has been a Toronto offensive strength while the kids mature.

And to think, we all supposed that Syracuse would mop up the International League this year.

Jordan said it well about Chulk and Smith, and I'm inclined to agree on Bowles. The OF is also disappointing -- there were hopes that at least one of Aven, Colangelo and Ryan would claim a big-league job, but nobody stepped up, and all three are off to miserable starts in AAA. Howie Clark and Mike Moriarty got hurt in the spring; neither is hitting yet. Shawn Fagan impressed in camp with his work ethic, but he seems overmatched at the plate. I'm getting "free Simon Pond" e-mails, so maybe he should trade places with Fagan.
_Jabonoso - Thursday, May 01 2003 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#102871) #
What do you think about C. Baker and D. Gassner from N Haven, too old?, not overwhelming? I think they are better than many in Syracuse...
If it were in your hands, would you drop J. Perry to low A and M Logan to Dunedin. They may need that, but they are old for such move.
Syracuse was overhauled by JP, and is doing very, very bad ( pitching staff era 5.30, oba .277 ) is this one of his pre-admitted agressive mistakes?
I like Alvarez upside, he is young and learning...
What do you think about our latin pitchers crop: Nin, Ramirez, Valdez, Castellanos, Chacin. Early to tell?
Thanks.
_Jordan - Thursday, May 01 2003 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#102872) #
Thought I'd pass along a few updates from yesterday's games. After saying Alexis Rios wouldn't take a base on balls if the catcher stood up and held out his mitt four times, Rios goes out and walks four times in a doubleheader (went 1-for-3 with a double otherwise). I've said it before: if a guy with his size and tools (a) adds power and (b) learns the strike zone, say hello to the new Dave Winfield.

* Syracuse got hammered 15-5 by Ottawa last night. Bruce Aven had three hits and continued to come around, but Evan Thomas, one of the promising NRIs signed last winter, was crunched for 8 runs in 4 1/3. His ERA is a sequential 7.89. Alumni update: Pedro Swann went 1-for-4 for the Lynx, and got plunked too.

* The Ravens dropped their day-nighter with Binghampton 6-5 and 3-0. Starters Chris Baker and Dave Gassner both deserved better, throwing six shutout innings each.

* Dunedin edged Fort Myers 2-1. Chad Pleiness also threw six shutout innings (it's all the rage!), allowing only three baserunners: that's more consistent with his potential. Struck out 5, too. Russ Adams tripled and singled and is up to .292. Jordan DeJong: save #8.

* The Alleycats beat Lake County 8-6. Israel Ramirez (more on him later) went 6 IP with 5 H, 1 BB, 2 ER and 4 Ks. Amazingly, Rodney Medina hit his 5th HR and is now at .305/.353/.558.
_pete_the_donkey - Thursday, May 01 2003 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#102873) #
Am I the only one who'd like to see RBI totals?
I don't feel like I'm getting the full picture (one of the few complaints I have about the Baseball Prospectus book purchased this spring).
_R Billie - Thursday, May 01 2003 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#102874) #
I think Gassner already went to Syracuse. As for Baker and Bauer, I never know what to make of pitchers who have to repeat a level. I guess pitchers don't always make consistent steps up the ladder...which I think will be different with Arnold. Mental makeup and intelligence does make a big difference with pitchers.

I think with Syracuse having a fairly veteran offensive team and a number of decent young pitchers such as Thurman, Chulk, and Smith, it would have been hard to predict this start. The lower levels seem to be doing fine; New Haven faced just as many weather problems and their pitching is league average (thanks mainly to Arnold and Reimers).

So what is it at the AAA and major league levels that causing this mass implosion of the pitching? Lack of talent? True to an extent. Lack of luck? Maybe. Bad coaching? I have no idea. Has everyone been cursed? That's a logical conclusion.
_R Billie - Thursday, May 01 2003 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#102875) #
Scratch my note on Gassner.
_Eric - Thursday, May 01 2003 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#102876) #
http://www.bluejayway.ca
Gassner was called up to AAA, replacing Shawn Fagan. After his first start he was then sent down, with Fagan replacing him. Not trying to bepicky or anything Jordan, but a year ago Arnold was still property of the Boss, and was sent to Oakland in June as part of the Jeff Weaver deal. Also Brandon League was drafted in the second round of the *2001* draft.
_Jordan - Thursday, May 01 2003 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#102877) #
I'll try to cover all the points raised:

Robert, that's a very good idea. I'll institute K/BF for the next round of assessments. Pete, I actually tend to be somewhat distrustful of RBIs. They're very dependent on situation, of course -- position in batting order, frequency and speed of runners on base -- and I think they can be misleading with regard to how good (or bad) a prospect really is. But if there's a groundswell of support, I'm very much open to including ribbies in the listings. Are there any other (easily accessible) stats for pitchers or hitters that people would like to see?

Regarding Baker, he actually pitched at Syracuse last year, and was not effective: 4.33 ERA, 89 IP, 94 H, 29 BB, 42 K, 13 HR, just 0.11 K/BF. He's now repeating AA, as R Billie says, and aside from ERA, the results are only somewhat better -- 1.64, 33 IP, 34 H, 6 BB, 20 K, 0.15 K/BF. He's really not overpowering anyone, he'll turn 26 in August, and so I think he's a career minor-leaguer.

Gassner, who's 24, intrigues me a little more. He arrived late in the organization, but went from A to AA to a late-season AAA start last year. He showed pinpoint control, but didn't strike many guys out, which is normally a warning siren. But he's off to a good beginning this year and actually got another spot start at Syracuse (though that may say more about the Skychiefs' problems than anything else). Here's his limited line from 2003:

AA
2 G, 1 GS, 1.69, 16 IP, 12 H, 1 BB, 12 K
AAA
1 G, 1 GS, 1.80, 5 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K

It's not much to go on, and Gassner really should hit the wall everywhere he goes, but he hasn't yet. Don't expect greatness of him, necessarily, but keep an eye on his performances, especially if he goes back to AAA.

I'm the farthest thing from Dick Scott, but I wouldn't drop Perry and Logan yet, not until they get 100 ABs at least. Logan isn't any great shakes necessarily, but he does have an 8/6 BB/K ratio in his 38 ABs, so that's something positive.

I quite like Sandy Nin -- he's pretty much undiscovered country right now, and it's fun watching to see what he'll turn into. And I really did overlook Ismael Ramirez. He was fairly mediocre in limited time in Auburn and Charleston last year, but he's off to a fine start in '03 at Charleston: 5 G, 4 GS, 2.22, 24 IP, 16 H, 5 BB, 14 K, .15 K/BF. The strikeouts are of course the weak spot, but I'm told he's hitting the low '90s with his fastball, has a good change-up, and is developing a slider. He's nowhere close to real prospect status yet, but he's a young 22 and he's worth keeping an eye on.

I was leery of Chacin before the season started, and that hasn't changed much: he's in the pen full-time now at New Haven, but he's not posting good numbers (11 IP, 14 H, 3 BB, 5 K). Neither he nor Castellanos have shown much so far.

I don't know that I'd call the Skychiefs' struggles a mistake of aggression thus far. The NRIs that JP brought in last winter were borderline major-league candidates, but they'd demonstrated fine minor-league records or strong supporting statistics. Evan Thomas, Tim Young, Doug Linton, Bruce Aven, Mike Moriarty, Howie Clark and Rob Ryan are all AAA or AAAA quality, so collectively they shouldn't be stinking this badly. It was a sensible approach to take, I think: the Chiefs are a year away from having the real organizational prospects graduate from AA and A, so why not bring in some veterans who should be able to hold the fort till then? I'm not fully convinced, after 22 games, that this won't work. If Syracuse is still punch-drunk in June or July, then I think we can safely say this batch of players was a washout. But like their big-league brethren, I think we need to give this troupe a little longer to get its act together before ringing down the curtain.
_Jordan - Thursday, May 01 2003 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#102878) #
Eric, be as picky as you like. :-) Both corrections noted and appreciated.
_steve - Tuesday, May 06 2003 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#102879) #
Alexis Rios (or as they're calling him now, "Lexis") went 3-3 with a HR and a walk in the first game of today's double header! That's a homerun in three straight games (4 total) and he's now walked 10 times, compared to 8 K's (in 76 PA's).
Farm Report: April | 14 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.