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Is it possible that Roy Halladay's turnaround could be attributed to the fact he's gotten over being separated from his personal catcher? His worst starts were the two immediately after Huckaby was designated for assignment; he then followed up with three middling starts, and has turned it on since, with four gems.


Eddie Perez still hasn't slowed down. You don't sign a 35-year-old catcher with less than 1,000 career at bats to be a major offensive contributor, but Eddie is hitting .322/.344/.542 in May, with four home runs, and he's fourth on the team in slugging percentage... if you don't count the contributions of Brooks Kieschnick.

Kieschnick has been a story himself; he's getting innings and pinch-hitting appearances to boot, and what's more he's hitting for once, though with only eleven plate appearances so far. He's made nine appearances in May, and if he can continue at that pace, getting twelve PA and 14 innings a month, he's a terrifically useful player. His peripherals are good so far, opponents are hitting .281/.317/.439 off him. He had three fine scoreless innings in a 6-0 loss to the Dodgers on Saturday. Unfortunately, Ned Yost hasn't yet cottoned on to Kieschnick's potential contributions in the field; his 11 PA have all come as a pitcher or pinch-hitter and he hasn't played a defensive position other than pitcher yet.

Roger Cedeno has to be, finally, on the way out in New York. The Mets have been electing to start Jeromy Burnitz in center over Cedeno, an unbelievable slight to any legitimate CF but Cedeno, of course, is no such thing. The Mets generally look to be in need of a complete tear-down; the imminent end of Mo Vaughn's career due to degenerative damage to the cartilage in his knee really ought to be the cue to Steve Phillips to begin the healing. But of course, being Steve Phillips, he'll do no such thing, he'd rather go down thrashing about, trying to recapture the lightining of 2000 in a 2003 bottle. It's tempting to pick on Mets fans (I mean, putting hope in Ty Wigginton?) but really they do have my sympathies.

With Minnesota having a rash of injuries (that vaunted depth does sometimes come in handy) they called up Lew Ford to fill in in the outfield. Ford was hitting very well at AAA Rochester, his MLE stats for 2003, park-adjusted to the Metrodome, give him a line of .310/.359/.468, a function of Rochester being a fairly severe pitcher's park. Ford began his career as a defensive replacement for Torii Hunter last night - Hunter has been injured, but it's still something to brag about to the boys back home. He also hit a ninth-inning single.

It's good to be back doing the Notes, at least for tonight, and hopefully I'll be able to continue most days. One final note, if anyone has a site for current Japanese stats in English, please let me know. I have grown accustomed to NPB's own site (NPB is the Japanese equivalent of MLB) which has always had an English section. Unfortunately, that's now unreachable.
Notes : Breaking Up Is Hard To Do | 15 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Gitz - Friday, May 30 2003 @ 02:57 AM EDT (#101298) #
Craig,

Glad the notes are back.

I saw Ford's single tonight: a crisp line drive to right-center field on the first pitch. If I ever got to the major leagues, I don't know if I'd be able to take that first pitch, no matter how much discipline I had in the minors or in college.
_Andrew Edwards - Friday, May 30 2003 @ 07:07 AM EDT (#101299) #
Interesting point on Halladay. His main failing this year seems to have been his HRs allowed -- is there any chance that Huckaby was as responsible as Doc for the lower HR totals?
_R Billie - Friday, May 30 2003 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#101300) #
Halladay seemed to start struggling with location (and stuff) after a Spring Training game against the Phillies where he hit Jim Thome and touched off a brawl in which Larry Bowa accused him of throwing at Thome intentionally.

Halladay's location wasn't good whether it was Huckaby behind the plate or otherwise. He's still not completely in the zone but he's much more consistent at putting the ball where he wants to today.
_Spicol - Friday, May 30 2003 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#101301) #
Halladay was pretty good in starts #2 and #3 though, so the Huckaby explanation is not only cute, it may have teeth as well.

I'm going to post something here that never goes over well but here goes:

Tom Wilson: 5.96 CERA
Greg Myers: 3.99 CERA

These are 2003 stats. For those who don't know, CERA is the ERA for the pitching staff when that particular catcher is behind the plate.

I realize that Keith Woolner's study on CERA wasn't exactly a vote of confidence for the metric, and there are a number of logical reasons why just comparing the two numbers to compare catchers isn't precise, but 2 runs? 2 WHOLE RUNS?!?

Discuss.
_R Billie - Friday, May 30 2003 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#101302) #
Well how often does Myers catch Halladay and Lidle as opposed to Wilson? What relievers came in and stunk out the joint with Wilson as opposed to Myers? On a team where pitching is very thin such as the Jays, such things mean a lot.

There are so many variables that CERA is suspect over a full season, let alone over two months. Maybe Huckaby just looked so good because he got to catch practically every Halladay start.
_Shane - Friday, May 30 2003 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#101303) #
Didn't Halladay just say this week he was overthrowing/pressing too hard in April, as well as experiencing a "dead arm" period?
_Spicol - Friday, May 30 2003 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#101304) #
Well how often does Myers catch Halladay and Lidle as opposed to Wilson?

That's the screwiest part...Halladay has a 3.44 ERA pitching to Wilson and a 5.06 ERA pitching to Myers. They've both caught Halladay 5 starts each. The load of the pitching staff has been pretty equally distributed between the two catchers.

I fully admit that when you break it down to one pitcher, you're subjecting yourself to extreme sample size problems. But when we're talking about 231 and 228 innings, which is what Wilson and Myers have caught respectively, at a difference of 2 runs/game (check that: over 2 runs, ESPN updated their stats since I last posted with Myers at 3.87 and Wilson at 5.96), I am inclined to think there is something there. I can chalk 0.5 runs or 1 runs or as much as 1.33 runs up to chance but 2.09 runs? A 54% increase? The faults in the measure mean that I can't determine exactly what it is with confidence but there has to be something, be it pitch calling or pitch framing or simply confidence in that particular catcher on the part of the pitchers.
Pepper Moffatt - Friday, May 30 2003 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#101305) #
http://economics.about.com
You also have to consider what the opposing teams were. If Myers was catching a lot of games against the Orioles and Devil Rays, and Wilson was catching a lot of games against the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rangers, we'd expect there to be a huge difference.

I imagine there is a difference between the two, but there's so much noise in the numbers its really difficult to figure out what the magnitude of that difference is.
_Jonny German - Friday, May 30 2003 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#101306) #
What about how the offense performs with Myers or Wilson in the lineup? Wilson has been hitting well, but Myers has been tearing the cover off the ball. Are the Jays putting up significantly more runs when Myers is in the lineup, and if so what effect does that have on the pitchers?

Too many questions, too little data, no good answers. Someday somebody will perfect sabremetrics, and their conclusion will be "You never know what can happen in a ballgame!".
_Chuck Van Den C - Friday, May 30 2003 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#101307) #
...is there any chance that Huckaby was as responsible as Doc for the lower HR totals?

Only if he has a special "don't hang your curve" sign that Wilson and Myers don't.
_Spicol - Friday, May 30 2003 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#101308) #
What about how the offense performs with Myers or Wilson in the lineup? Wilson has been hitting well, but Myers has been tearing the cover off the ball.

You're getting into a level of scrutiny that no measure can pass. Should we discount the Jays' team OBP since they have lost nearly half their games and the opposing pitcher might be letting up a bit since he has a lead? No, of course not. Every single measure is subject to thousands of variables.

I imagine there is a difference between the two, but there's so much noise in the numbers its really difficult to figure out what the magnitude of that difference is.

I agree 100%. But do we need to determine the magnitude of the difference as long as we determine there likely is a difference? This evidence, as sketchy as it is, combined with platoon splits, tells me there is absolutely NO WAY Wilson should see any time vs. RHP, as he did Wednesday night against Jon Garland. It all adds up to more questionable decision making by Tosca. He seems to be a great leader, but is he ever a bad game manager.
_Chuck Van Den C - Friday, May 30 2003 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#101309) #
He seems to be a great leader, but is he ever a bad game manager.

I agree. Such managers are appropriate for young, 70-win teams trying to become 80-win teams. They tend to be a problem for 80-win teams trying to become 90-win teams, however.
robertdudek - Friday, May 30 2003 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#101310) #
"He seems to be a great leader, but is he ever a bad game manager."

That's exactly what they said about Cito Gaston. If you have the horses it takes a moronic manager to mess it up with in-game strategy. Tosca is no Earl Weaver, but neither is he Jeff Torborg.
_Matthew Elmslie - Friday, May 30 2003 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#101311) #
I can't point to anything I said at the time he was hired, but I've never been sold on Tosca as the manager long-term. I don't know if Ricciardi has someone in mind to take over in 2005, or whenever, but I suspect he's thinking about it.
Dave Till - Friday, May 30 2003 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#101312) #
"He seems to be a great leader, but is he ever a bad game manager."

That's exactly what they said about Cito Gaston.


Ironically enough, Cito was called a bad in-game manager because he didn't change pitchers enough, didn't pinch-hit enough, etc. Tosca is being accused of changing pitchers too frequently and pinch-hitting at the wrong times with the wrong people. Neither manager liked the bunt.

Cito and Tosca's greatest strength was winning the respect of the players. The 1992-1993 Jays and the 2003 Jays both seem like clubs that are genuinely functioning as a team. (The Jimy Williams Jays were notorious for not behaving as a team, and it's clear that the Gordo-era Jays had a bit of a country club atmosphere.)

Tosca also uses his bench well - Berg, Bordick, and the catching platoon have all been productive, and Reed Johnson seems to be heading down that road too. Cito often didn't have much of a bench to call on - when your best option on the bench is Derek Bell or Turner Ward, it's often better just to hope that the regulars don't wear out. Cito did handle the Winfield/Carter situation well, though - both men wanted to play right field.

When the team starts to contend, Tosca might lose the respect of his players if his in-game strategy starts losing them games in the middle of a pennant race.
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