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Batter's Box denizens aren't the only ones wondering what would happen if the Blue Jays, who entered this season fully expecting to rebuild all year and collect prospects at the trade deadline, find themselves in contention. Dave Perkins asked JP Ricciardi the same thing. Here's what he said:

Best-case scenario, if we can keep the same team and not have to deal anybody, we'll do it. [If the Jays can stay in the wild-card playoff picture], I go sleep on Ted Rogers' doorstep and try to beg, borrow or steal whatever we can get. I hope we're in that situation, to find out. If we've done everything on our end to win, we could hope so.



This should come as great reassurance to those of us who worried that JP would damn the torpedos and forge ahead, carving up a wild-card contender at the deadline in order to complete a master plan for contention two or three years down the road. JP is a very competitive guy, and he really, really likes winning. Given a chance to win -- and we all know how fleeting those chances can be -- he'll take it, and become a buyer rather than a seller at the deadline. He should be commended for his attitude.

That said, I will respectfully disagree. In the unlikely event that the team continues to do very well -- the .703 ball they've played during May was great fun while it lasted -- and competes with the likes of Anaheim and Boston for the wild-card entry, still JP should not be swayed. Changing course midstream is rarely a good idea, and his long-term plan is a fine one that deserves to be played out. Stewart and Lidle could bring back some awfully nice return in trade from a contender on the brink, and if the Blue Jays can get a #2 starter for 2006 by dealing Shannon in July, they shouldn't hesitate. As for dealing minor-leaguers, JP won't trade away Grade-A prospects like Gabe Gross or Russ Adams, of course, but he could lighten the farm system sufficiently to bind his hands a couple of years down the road, when he really does need to deal away serious talent.

The players might not like it, but most of them will be gone in the next couple of years anyway. Who'll be on the roster Opening Day 2005? Halladay, Hinske, Wells, Phelps and maybe one or two others. Important guys, to be sure, but also professionals; they'll get over it, especially if staying on course now rewards their discipline with a string of playoff appearances later. The media will no doubt howl, but by September the Leafs are playing exhibition games anyway and Joe Public will settle in front of the TV for his hockey fix. It will be forgotten in the long run.

There are conditions under which I would support a playoff push. If one or more of the Big Five -- Angels, Mariners, A's, Yanks, Red Sox (I'm assuming Minny will be the only Central Division post-seasoner) -- is clearly hurting or too far out, then the risk becomes more reasonable. If the Jays are, like, 2 games out of the WC or division lead with an easy schedule left, then you want to guard against the White Flag Sox Syndrome (though take a look at Toronto's August schedule -- brutal, in a word). But otherwise, this is a team and organization assembled for the long haul, and an amazing May run shouldn't derail that train.

Others may sensibly and powerfully disagree, of course. Please feel free. :-)
Too Good, Too Soon? | 16 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_Matthew Elmslie - Friday, May 30 2003 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#101253) #
I agree with you. There are probably things that can be safely done to improve the team this season, but the most important thing should be the long term. Especially in a baseball world that contains a wild card. Before the wild card, you had to go for it every year you could, because who knows when you might get another chance? With the wild card, there will always be another chance, and only long-term thinking will ensure that you can try for a lot of them instead of just this year's.
Pepper Moffatt - Friday, May 30 2003 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#101254) #
http://economics.about.com
Stewart and Lidle could bring back some awfully nice return in trade from a contender on the brink, and if the Blue Jays can get a #2 starter for 2006 by dealing Shannon in July, they shouldn't hesitate.

How likely are either of these guys to bring in a Grade A prospect? It seems to me that over the last couple years that the prospects that get sent to teams are of the "Scott Wiggins" variety. Since say, 2000, how many deadline deals involved great prospects? I can't remember too many. If Ray Durham was only worth Jon Adkins, what would Lidle or Stewart fetch?

Mike
_Matthew Elmslie - Friday, May 30 2003 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#101255) #
I'd say that if you're not going to get a good prospect back - a legitimate good prospect, someone you really want - you just don't make the trade. There's no gun to the Jays' collective head this year.

There is the problem of not being compensated if Stewart, Escobar or Lidle sign with another team as a free agent, but if it puts an extra draft pick in Ricciardi's hands I can live with it.

Does anyone know if there'll be draft pick compensation next year? Is it in or is it out?
_Ken - Friday, May 30 2003 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#101256) #
totally agree if the return is not worthwhile hold on to stew, esco or lidle and get an extra draft choice (how strong is next years draft considered to be?)

whos to say that if the jays trade stewart and escobar they can't still contend..........cat moves up to leadoff and hinske could move into the no2 spot in the lineup, IF he returns from injury and plays like last year. i think trading Stewart is the logical thing to do, he should fetch a very good prospect considering he is consitent and dependable and the OF depth in the minors mean he is pretty much expendable. Hopefully werth will be able to make a comfortable transition to the majors if stewart leaves.

At this point in time there are so many ifs and buts that its just to hard to gauge what JP is going to do though. but always fun to speculate!
_Chuck Van Den C - Friday, May 30 2003 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#101257) #
Does anyone know if there'll be draft pick compensation next year? Is it in or is it out?

Further to that question, would all "type A" departing FA's yield draft choices, or just those offered arbitration?
_Jabonoso - Friday, May 30 2003 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#101258) #
Good prospects fetch at deadline trades? Mike Young for Esteban Loaiza.
Back to the buyers or sellers question. One very important argument is that you learn how to win... only winning. The lessons from a good run will be very important. Dealing with pressure, performing day in and day out, and enjoying the whole thing. It has been a while that our minor leaguers had not been in a winning team. And the cost is very relative. At the same time you are discovering jewels for that type of games ( as the Angels did ) and you find out who is not made for such ocassions...
Is Tosca the manager for a winning team? the sooner you find out the better, and so on...
Gitz - Friday, May 30 2003 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#101259) #
The rule, as I understand it, is that a Type A FA will yield one draft pick unless arbitration is offered, in which case there will be two.
_Jonny German - Friday, May 30 2003 @ 07:47 PM EDT (#101260) #
Since say, 2000, how many deadline deals involved great prospects?

Well, how about

May 7, 2002
In a three-way deal; the Oakland Athletics traded Carlos Pena, Franklyn German and a player to be named later (Jeremy Bonderman - Aug 22nd) to the Detroit Tigers, the Tigers traded Jeff Weaver to the New York Yankees, the Yankees traded Ted Lilly, Jason Arnold and John-Ford Griffin to the Athletics.
_Andrew Edwards - Friday, May 30 2003 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#101261) #
Hijack!

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-bluejays-rotation&prov=ap&type=lgns

Jays go to a four-man rotation. A good idea, based on the data I've seen. What do other folks think?
Pepper Moffatt - Friday, May 30 2003 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#101262) #
http://economics.about.com
Jonny: I didn't know they had move the trade deadline up to May. :)

Andrew: I think it's absolutely brilliant. I wonder how many relievers they'll carry now.

Mike
_Cristian - Saturday, May 31 2003 @ 12:56 AM EDT (#101263) #
I don't think that the Jays should stay the '2005 and beyond' course if the opportunity to win presents itself this year. I think that Ted Rogers understands that the only thing that brings fans into Skydome is winning baseball. If a strong WC push brings fans into the stadium and creates a buzz it makes more sense go for it.

Right now, JP's plan seems to be to win with an Oakland salary. This is fine. However, with fannies in the seats, the Jays plan can change to profitably compete with a mid market salary.
_Lefty - Saturday, May 31 2003 @ 03:24 AM EDT (#101264) #
Just to Chime in here it looks to me like theres a few more yea's than nays. I kinda ...... well really ripped into JP last night and those who would trade away a very good team this year on speculation for 2005 and beyond and perhaps fairly was in turn ripped by r billie. Anyway, I stick to my guns and say lets go for it. This is a very very good team right now, a blend of wily ole vets and youthful enthusiasim. We are one starter and one reliever short of having the WC in the bag I believe. Perhaps Escobar works out and then we are short one starter or relief pitcher. Also I mentioned last night the Canadian buck is up about 14% from last year. For sure that makes a differnce. To me 2005 is still a fairy tale. And whats wrong with keeping Stewart all year, all he does is get on base everyday and score 100 runs. I also wonder why we would have gone out and got Lidle if the intention is to trade him away a few months later. Thats just plain silly.
_Ken - Saturday, May 31 2003 @ 06:36 AM EDT (#101265) #
lefty, i think the jays need more than 1 starter and 1 reliever to have the WC in the bag. The bullpun is incredibly weak aside from politte and lopez, it just can't compete with teams like minny or seattle. I agree that another quality starter is definately something the jays should get if they want to make the postseason, but what would we have to give up?
Dave Till - Saturday, May 31 2003 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#101266) #
I'm of two minds on this. On the one hand, the Jays don't have any pitching depth at all - they have two reliable starters, two reliable bullpen pitchers (Politte and Lopez, sort of), and a whole lot of prospects and suspects. That's not normally enough to win.

On the other hand, the Jays have one heck of an offense, and by the time the pitching gets better, Stewart and Delgado are likely to be gone, and the runs will stop coming. (This was the problem in the Gord Ash era: in 1997-1998, they had the pitching; in 2000, they had the hitting; they never had both.) If the Jays genuinely have a chance to win, they probably should go for it. It might bring the fans back.

And winning with this team is not totally beyond the realm of possibility. The 1993 Blue Jays won with an all-world offense, two good starters, and two or three good bullpen pitchers. (As you probably recall, they won one game of that series 15-14!)
Pepper Moffatt - Saturday, May 31 2003 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#101267) #
http://economics.about.com
Also I mentioned last night the Canadian buck is up about 14% from last year. For sure that makes a differnce.

I don't really think short term currency fluctuations should matter too much, as I imagine the Jays are hedging quite heavily to avoid currency risk.

Mike
robertdudek - Saturday, May 31 2003 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#101268) #
Mike...

Agreed that short term currency fluctuations aren't all that important, but I believe the CDN$ will be in the 73-76 cent range for several years to come, and that will make a difference in revenue versus player salaries. It will mean we can afford better quality free-agents or may even be able to afford Delgado if he's willing to take a hometown discount and sign a 4-year contract for 43 million or so.

We should pursue something like the deal KC gave Brett, whereby the club agreed to employ him as a spokesman or in the front office after his career was over. I believe there is real economic value to keeping a popular superstar player - even if his on field performance doesn't quite justify his salary - mostly, in terms of the positive vibes it creates in the community. Delgado has the talent and personality to make it work, just as Brett, Ripken and Gwynn did.
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