A.L. East Pennant Race: Pitching Staffs

Monday, June 02 2003 @ 03:01 AM EDT

Contributed by: robertdudek

With all three clubs off today in preparation fro inter-league games, this seems an approapriate time to compare and contrast the clubs battling for the division lead.

Starting Staffs:


team ------- GS IP IP/GS RA ERA UER Outs% Krate Wrate BIPavg HRrate GB/FB
Yankees --- 56 370.0 6.6 4.33 3.89 18 .711 .194 .051 .310 .040 0.96
Red Sox ---- 55 315.7 5.7 5.53 5.16 13 .690 .180 .088 .304 .034 0.98
Blue Jays -- 58 341.7 5.9 5.56 4.93 24 .693 .143 .064 .302 .026 1.30


Bullpens:

team ----- RApp RApp/G IP RA ERA UER Outs% Krate Wrate BIPavg HRrate GB/FB
Yankees ---- 117 2.09 139.3 4.52 4.39 2 .692 .177 .078 .320 .016 0.80
Red Sox ---- 141 2.56 178.3 5.96 5.55 8 .665 .163 .072 .325 .035 0.93
Blue Jays -- 180 3.10 170.3 5.23 4.86 7 .661 .188 .091 .301 .053 1.01


Overall:

team ------ Games IP RA ERA UER Outs% Krate Wrate BIPavg HRrate GB/FB
Yankees ----- 56 509.3 4.38 4.03 20 .706 .189 .059 .313 .023 0.92
Red Sox ----- 55 494.0 5.68 5.30 21 .680 .174 .082 .312 .034 0.96
Blue Jays --- 58 512.0 5.45 4.90 31 .682 .158 .073 .302 .044 1.20


There are 2 stats that you may not have seen before. Outs percentage is IP*3/(BF-IW) - this measure includes pick offs, caught stealings, runners out on double plays and other baserunners thrown out. The other is Homerun rate (HR rate), which is homeruns allowed per number of balls put in play (INCLUDING homeruns): it excludes strikeouts, walks and hit batsmen.

The Yankees' staff has allowed homeruns at roughly half the rate that the Blue Jays staff has. They've also been better at striking out opposing hitter and avoiding walks. Their defence has given some of that edge back - the Jays have a significant advantage in opponent BIP average over their competitors.

Though Blue Jays starters have pitched more innings than Bosox starters (5.9 versus 5.7 innings per game), the Jays have used over half a reliever more per game. The Jays are on pace to break the AL record for relief pitchers per game.


Let's proceed to individual pitchers.

Relievers ranked by Outs percentage (10 or more innings):


Player -------Team App IP GB/FB Wrate Krate Outs%
M Timlin -----BOS 23 31.7 1.39 -- .008 .164 .742
M Rivera -----NYY 11 12.3 2.00 -- .041 .220 .740
S Hitchcock --NYY 12 20.0 0.68 -- .036 .205 .723
C Hammond ----NYY 23 22.3 0.58 -- .033 .172 .720
C Politte ----TOR 26 25.0 0.59 -- .057 .219 .714
A Embree -----BOS 18 15.7 0.74 -- .076 .197 .712
J Anderson ---NYY 11 11.3 0.45 -- .125 .104 .708
P Walker -----TOR 10 12.7 1.20 -- .074 .093 .704
A Lopez ------TOR 27 29.0 0.79 -- .107 .282 .702
J Shiell -----BOS 9 15.3 1.20 -- .136 .179 .687
B Lyon -------BOS 23 25.7 0.56 -- .071 .186 .681
A Osuna ------NYY 18 21.7 0.77 -- .115 .198 .677
S Woodard ----BOS 7 17.7 1.00 -- .038 .152 .671
T Miller -----TOR 29 18.3 1.50 -- .099 .176 .647
J Acevedo ----NYY 23 23.0 0.59 -- .066 .167 .639
J Tam --------TOR 28 29.7 1.76 -- .100 .142 .631
J Contreras --NYY 8 11.3 1.86 -- .167 .259 .630
D Creek ------TOR 21 13.7 0.67 -- .141 .167 .621
R Mendoza ----BOS 23 30.7 1.11 -- .048 .100 .613
K Escobar ----TOR 15 17.3 1.55 -- .080 .258 .584


Starters ranked by Outs percentage (3 or more starts)

Player ------Team Starts IP GB/FB Wrate Krate Outs%
M Mussina -----NYY 11 79.0 0.78 -- .046 .268 .785
P Martinez ----BOS 9 60.3 0.83 -- .071 .257 .751
C Lidle--------TOR 12 81.3 1.21 -- .048 .165 .731
D Wells -------NYY 10 72.3 0.81 -- .010 .134 .726
R Halladay ----TOR 13 90.0 1.88 -- .034 .180 .705
R Clemens -----NYY 12 76.3 0.91 -- .068 .252 .702
M Hendrickson--TOR 12 65.3 1.44 -- .043 .100 .698
C Fossum ------BOS 11 58.3 0.65 -- .092 .187 .697
K Escobar -----TOR 3 12.7 2.83 -- .218 .236 .691
J Burkett -----BOS 11 61.7 0.85 -- .074 .128 .678
A Pettitte ----NYY 11 65.7 1.55 -- .062 .178 .675
D Lowe---------BOS 11 62.3 2.40 -- .097 .136 .668
D Davis--------TOR 6 29.0 0.75 -- .092 .069 .664
T Wakefield ---BOS 11 64.0 0.73 -- .108 .206 .660
J Weaver ------NYY 11 69.7 0.95 -- .067 .132 .657
T Sturtze -----TOR 8 44.0 0.89 -- .095 .122 .644
P Walker ------TOR 4 19.3 1.05 -- .111 .132 .637


Note that a pitcher whose defence has betrayed him is going to look worse than a pitcher whose defence has helped him (provided the quality of the pitcher's performance is similar).





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