In our June 10 interview with Keith Law, he didn't have much to say about the Jays' picks in the recently-completed amateur draft other than, "I could brag about all of them, but I think most teams would say the same about their own selections." This was understandable restraint, as cynics would jump on any raves that appeared self-congratulatory, but we thought you might enjoy an impartial expert opinion. Following the lead of our friend Aaron Gleeman, who invited Derek Welvang of The Prospect Report to discuss the Twins' draft on his blog, we are delighted to present the following insights to Batter's Box readers. Welvang modestly calls this "a brief (sometimes pretty much non-existent) description of all of the Jays picks this year, largely sans analysis," and promises a more analytical Jays feature "in the near to mid future" on his site. Derek, on behalf of the whole ZLC, thank you very much. We can't wait. -Kent
by Derek Welvang
Toronto had a great draft last year and a pretty good one this year. Really, my only serious qualm with what they did is with their first pick Aaron Hill. He's a good ballplayer, but I wouldn't have taken him at 13. They centered on college players (first 28 picks, if you count a JUCO guy) and pitchers (two-thirds of all selections, 11 of first 14). The first few hitters they took were performance guys with good plate discipline, followed by a mix of hitter types. As for pitchers, the stereotypical Toronto pitcher selection in this draft would be: a guy with a medium frame, who is either short or average in height, has average stuff and good control, and tends to hit batters (which is a proxy for either lack of control or, in this case, a willingness to pitch inside). Incidentally, this is a player type I like - physical enough so as not to preclude success, skilled enough to get outs.
#1 (13th overall) | Aaron Hill | SS | Louisiana State | R-R | 5-11, 195 | 3/21/82
(265 AB; .358/.466/.592, 9 HR, 67 RBI, 9 SB, 47 BB, 21 SO)
Hill is the only shortstop the Blue Jays tabbed in the draft. I'm marginally disappointed in this pick - not because Hill is bad - rather, I think that the Jays could have done better. It's fashionable in some quarters to call Hill another Khalil Greene (both polished college middle infielders with big numbers and adequate tools) - however, I'd say that a far better comp is another LSU shortstop who put up big numbers and went in the first round, though it was thought that he might have to move to third someday … Russ Johnson.
Incidentally, LSU has a tremendous track record of putting out middle infielders - Todd Walker was Johnson's double play partner - they were followed by Warren Morris and the criminally under-respected Jason Williams, Brandon Larson, Mike Fontenot, and so on.
I'm not convinced that Hill would slot into the top half of that group, as far as college performance is concerned. He's a little more athletic than they were, on average … but I have faith that the Blue Jays can identify players with 90% of the talent of Hill (say, a Mike Rouse) in a later round, reserving this pick for a player with a higher ceiling.
Oh yeah, what he does. Hill has gap power (27 doubles), solid plate discipline, a plus arm, and good hand eye coordination, enabling him to be a steady fielder on the left-hand side of the diamond. His quickness is iffy for short - don't be surprised if he eventually ends up at second or third.
#2 (50th overall) | Josh Banks | RHP | Florida International | R-R | 6-3, 195 | 7/18/82
(8-3 3.50 ERA; 17 G, 15 GS, 1 CG, 105.1 IP, 95 H, 12 HR, 25 BB, 114 SO)
Banks is a talented pitcher who had a slightly disappointing junior season. He throws 4 pitches from a 7/8 slot - a low 90s fastball with so-so downward movement, a plus splitter and breaking ball, and an adequate change that could become an average or better pitch. He repeats his delivery well, has solid command of all four pitches, works quickly, and looks durable. He also pitched well on the Cape (4-1 2.05 in 44 IP, 14 BB and 48 SO - the league ERA was 2.51) and could quickly move to AA. That homer rate is a little troubling and he has had problems with blisters this year.
#3 (80th overall) | Shaun Marcum | RHP | SW Missouri State | R-R | 6-1, 180 | 12/14/81
(1-4 2.51 ERA; 23 G, 13 SV, 43 IP, 34 H, 3 HR, 13 BB, 54 SO)
This year's David Bush, a reliever that will (likely) get a shot at the rotation. The undersized righty has two plus pitches - a 90-mph fastball and tight slider - as well as an average curve and decent change from a 3/4 slot. His control is great as are his K rates - this includes his performance on the Cape, where he went 4-1 1.48 in 24.1 IP, with 4 BB and 31 SO. He's athletic (doubled as the Bears' SS) and his mechanics are sound.
#4 (110th overall) | Kurt Isenberg | LHP | James Madison | R-L | 6-0, 185 | 1/15/82
(8-8 5.85 ERA; 17 G, 14 GS, 97 IP, 116 H, 7 HR, 42 BB, 97 SO)
I'm not thrilled with this pick. It's not bad - Isenberg is a better pitcher than his ERA suggests (decent peripherals and stuff), but the Jays could have done better. Another college two-way guy, he has a low 90s fastball (not bad for a lefty), curve, and change - all of which occasionally look like solid pitches. He's not afraid to work inside (15 HBP on the season) and was okay on the Cape (0-1 3.03 ERA in 35.2 IP, with 9 BB and 32 SO).
#5 (140th overall) | Justin James | RHP | Missouri | R-R | 6-3, 215 | 9/13/81
(7-6 4.03; 17 G, 17 GS, 114 IP, 116 H, 14 HR, 26 BB, 92 SO)
James is a lot like Banks, but with a little better body and a little less stuff and polish. He has three slightly better than average pitches: a 90-mph fastball, change, and curve. He works quickly, throws strikes, and likes to work inside (10 HBP). He looks like he knows what he's doing, though BA reports that he lacks deception (which could explain the high HR totals), but the Jays can work with him on that. He was adequate on the Cape last year (1-1 4.33 in 35.1 IP, with 10 BB and 21 SO) and lousy as a freshman (7.16 ERA). A draft-eligible sophomore, James was a 6th round choice of the Red Sox out of high school.
Who else did the Jays take?
Catcher
Joey Reiman (16) is a Scott Hemond type who hit .395 with gap power and 20 steals for Grand Canyon (D2). He threw out a third of opposing runners, but doesn't block the ball that well. I kind of like Joey Wolfe (33). He hit .338/.440/.498 for Louisiana-Lafayette (36 BB/22 SO in 207 AB), has an average arm and good defensive reputation. Jeremy Knicely (42) hit well (.380/.494/.620) for Longwood (Michael Tucker's alma mater), but could use work defensively. He's an academic All-American.
First Base
Vito Chiaravalotti (15) is a bit of a sleeper. He had an exceptional sophomore season (.357/.465/.727 in 238 AB, 23 HR, 50 BB, 50 SO) followed by a mediocre junior year (.306/.398/.528 in 229 AB, 34 BB, 37 SO). He takes vicious, all-or-nothing swings at the plate and might be a better defender in an outfield corner than at first. Jim Burt (35) is a good fielding first baseman who had a decent season for Miami (.296/.385/.500 in 226 AB, 31 BB, 30 SO). If he doesn't sign, Toronto will control his rights as a fifth-year senior. Oh, he's the son of former NFL'er Jim Burt. Paul Franko (45) was a high school teammate of Brandon Wood and pitcher Matt Trink (36).
Second Base
Jeremy Acey (23) tore up the California JUCO ranks, hitting .497/.550/.789, stealing bases, posting a solid W/K ratio, and is considered a slick fielder - but was older than the competition at 22. Brian Patrick (25) is more of a utility man, having spent a lot of time in the outfield in college. He hit .329/.393/.505 in 210 AB with 21 BB and 25 SO and has a strong arm (has hit 90 off the mound). I'd like to see Snavely (6) move here.
Third Base
The Jays picked up a pair of on-base oriented college guys, UT-Arlington's Ryan Roberts (18) and Rutgers' Vinny Esposito (22) - neither of whom has gotten much attention as a prospect. Roberts (.422/.514/.765) is the better of the two and a potential sleeper - the Southland player of the year's performance at the plate compares well with recent Reds draftee Mark Schmarek, though Roberts is less toolsy and lacks Schmarek's glove. Esposito hit .328/.448/.488 in 201 AB (42 BB, 40 SO), while fielding .911 and also has experience in the outfield. Both players have already signed. Also, Hill (1), Snavely (6), and Johnson (44) are considered possible future third basemen in some quarters.
Shortstop (see Aaron Hill)
Left Field
I have an admittedly irrational love for Ohio State's Christian Snavely (6). He's a very good hitter - posting college numbers (.335/.487/.665) that are comparable to those of his former teammate, Oakland's Nick Swisher. A decent athlete (though not as athletic as Swisher), he should have 15-20 homer power, with a solid average and good walk totals. The question is as to what position he'll play - he bounced all around the diamond in college, playing mostly second last year and this outfield this season. A weak arm probably will keep him from third or right in the bigs and he may not be quick enough to play second. In many ways, he's like Stetson's Brian Snyder, a first round pick this year who drew comparisons to Kevin Youkilis. Snavely's stock fell, in part, because of a prolonged slump to begin the season. Kyle Thousand (26) was Iowa's best player - a guy who hits for an okay average with some doubles and plus speed. He played center in college.
Center Field
Jayce Tingler (10) is this year's Steve Stanley. Teeny Tingler (5-7 153) does an outstanding job of getting on-base, has some speed, and is a solid fielder in center but has absolutely no power. He led the Cape Cod league with a .456 on base average and had a W/K ratio for the Tigers of 48/9, while hitting .395/.525/.488. Jack Ryser (38) has a little speed, a little bat (though shaky plate discipline), and is another utility guy (2b and cf, mainly). Brent Johnson (44) probably won't sign. He's a decent hitter with gap power, a strong arm, some speed, and the ability to play multiple positions (he started at third for UNLV this year). Expect him to be a first day pick next year.
Right Field
Patrick Breen (28) is a toolsy fourth outfielder type with respectable power who may or may not sign. Angel Hernandez (50) is a long shot to sign, but he has a nice frame, good power/defense potential, and an excellent arm. I'm unaware of any college commitment that he might have, but it's likely that he has one, as he lasted until the last round.
Pitchers
RHP Danny Core (7) had a solid college career for Florida Atlantic. He's a finesse guy who works with a moving high-80s fastball and above average curve. He had a good, though not fantastic, year, going 10-2 3.31 in 106 IP, with 91 H, 4 HR, 34 BB, 98 SO. He's not afraid to pitch inside (16 HBP). RHP Chad Mulholland (8), from SW Missouri State, is an underrated pitcher who turned into the Bears' best pitcher (10-3 2.98; 18 G, 15 GS, 4 CG, 111.2 IP, 96 H, 7 HR, 30 BB, 114 SO). He has a decent build, diverse repertoire, based around a 90 mph fastball that reportedly hit 95 and like, Core, hits a lot of guys (12 HBP). New Mexico RHP Jamie Vermilyea (9) is another good pick. He went 7-3 4.07 ERA in 119.1 IP, with 134 H, 13 HR, 24 BB, 105 SO - which is better than it sounds as the Lobos' home park is great for hitters. He has a good build, good stuff (90-mph fastball, splitter, and slider) and might add a little more velocity over time. Also, he went 1-3 1.63 in 27.2 IP with 8 BB and 35 SO in the Cape Cod League, co-closing with Stanford's Paul Hudgins.
RHP Tom Mastny (11) led the nation in ERA for Furman, going 11-2 1.09 in 124 IP, allowing 78 H, 22 BB, and striking out 103. He's tall (6-6), lanky and has three pitches - a 90 mph fastball that could stand to move a little more than it does, curve, and change. RHP Jayson Rodriguez (12) is a short, skinny guy from Indian River CC who's an interesting relief prospect. He uses a low 90s fastball and slider who, as a freshman for Seton Hall a year ago, went 1-0 3.86 in 16.1 IP with 19 H, 10 BB, and 17 SO. Navy's LHP Matt Foster (13) is one of the draft's more interesting stories. He might have gone higher, but a so-so senior year coupled with concerns about how he can fulfill his military commitment dropped his stock. He has good stuff - a low 90s fastball, solid change, and decent curve - along with a lanky and projectable body, but his approach needs refinement. He's signed - the rumor was that he'd split time between extended spring training and active duty until the beginning of 2005.
Like Chad Pleiness, VMI's 6-3 RHP Jeremy Harper (14) is a former college basketball player. Unlike Pleiness, he doesn't know how to pitch yet (3-9 7.51), though he's a decent thrower, showing a 90 mph fastball, curve, and change. Amusingly, he allowed 30 steals in 74.1 IP. RHP Jordy Templet (17) was solid but unexceptional for Louisiana Lafayette (6-5 4.02; 96.1 IP, 93 H, 5 HR, 30 BB, 83 SO). He's a diminutive righty and another former shortstop, whose main pitch is an 88 mph fastball. RHP Adrian Martin (19), Toronto's first high school selection, is a fairly polished, though undersized, righty with an 88-mph fastball and solid curve. In his first 42 innings this season, he allowed 5 walks while striking out 71. He's also a decent prospect at short, but his future is on the mound. RHP Brad Depoy (20) is Toronto's biggest signability question. He's got a 90-mph fastball, plus slider, and mound bulldog-ery. He's also got a deal at the University of Houston.
I'm a little surprised that RHP Mark Sopko (21) left Arizona State for the Jays. He's an undersized righty with a low 90s fastball and solid breaking ball who pitched well this year (3-2 2.30 in 54.2 IP as a spot starter, 52 H, 2 HR, 13 BB, 43 SO). He's a groundballer and yet another guy with high HBP totals (9). He projects as a setup man. RHP Nick Evanglista (24) pitched well for Pittsburgh, going 8-5 3.32 in 89.1 IP, 20 BB, 76 SO and has decent control and stuff, but a bad body. He throws in the upper 80s. RHP Brian Reed (27) led the SEC in ERA a year ago as a co-closer for Alabama, but wasn't as effective this year, positing a 4.07 ERA (along with 12 saves), while allowing a hit an inning. LHP Chris Nieto (29) went 8-3 2.05 in 87.2 IP with 31 BB and 87 SO for Riverside CC. He's yet another guy who hits a lot of batters (9 HBP, 1 WP).
RHP Billy Wheeler (30) from South Suburban JC (IL) has a low to mid 90s fastball. RHP Joaquin Canizal (31), aka "Kike", went 4-3 2.73 in 69.1 IP, with 55 H, 2 HR, 22 BB, 65 SO for Union, in Kentucky. Okay - I don't know either of those guys. But, I do know LHP Brad Mumma (33). He's a good value for the round, a senior from Western Michigan who went 6-4 3.27 in 85.1 IP, 76 H, 2 HR, 35 BB, 79 SO - this last figure led the conference - and allowed few extra base hits last season. His stuff is decent, working with a high 80s fastball and plus curve. He has a big, durable build, but was worked very hard this season, including a stretch of seven (!) consecutive complete games.
RHP Jeremy Noegel (34) was a Division 2 All-American as West Florida's closer. He operates with only a mid 80s fastball and offspeed stuff, but went 3-3 1.72 10 SV in 47 IP with 11 BB and 77 SO. Prep RHP Matt Trink (36) is a good pitcher and has an upper 80s fastball, changeup, and curve - along with the ever important "p's" (pitchability and projectability). LHP Aric Van Gaalen's (37) name ought to sound familiar to Jays fans, they've picked him before. He's tall, lanky, and has room to improve - both physically and in terms of polish. He throws your standard fastball/curve/change assortment and could throw hard one day. LHP William Blackmon (39), a Texas A&M recruit, is tall and has been on of the better prep pitchers in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area the last two years. By contrast, Spartanburg Methodist JC's LHP Jimmy Coker (40) is another Jays' small pitcher. He went 4-2 1.66 in 48.2 IP with 41 H, 3 HR, 14 BB, and 55 SO - though only 9 of his 19 runs allowed were earned after a prep career where he was twice all-state. His main pitch is a moving high 80s fastball, but his command comes and goes. The O-Dog is among the school's alums.
RHP Scott Tolbert (41) will probably not sign. He had the best season of anyone on Georgia Southern's all prospect staff, going 7-2 3.03 in 68.1 IP with 49 H, 4 HR, 33 BB, SO, working with a low-to-mid 90s fastball and above average slider. I think that LHP Ryan Gordon (43) was an excellent pick - though I'm biased as he's from my alma mater (UNC Greensboro). Named a first team All-American by Collegiate Baseball, as a DH/LHP, Gordon is slowly returning to pitching after Tommy John surgery two years ago. The small (6-0) lefty mixed high 80s fastball, curve, and change to the tune of 4-2 2.59 in 59 IP, with 21 BB and 55 SO. He also hit .416/.473/.610 with good steal numbers. If he doesn't sign, Toronto will control his rights until the next draft (another reason this is a nice pick).
Ahhh… people I know nearly nothing about. I'm sure that there are people on this board who know more about RHP Paul Marlow than I do; he's from Elgin Park HS in British Columbia. I'm also sure that there are people who know things about lefty juco pitchers LHP Jeff Walker (47) and Bryan Hansen (48). Feel free to tell the world about them. RHP Michael Rider (49) went 2-2 2.41 6 SV in 33.2 IP with 10 BB and 38 SO for Consumnes River JC, posting a lower ERA than his teammate Nick Pesco, who signed a seven-figure deal with Cleveland.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20030618084828999