The new Walking Man

Sunday, June 22 2003 @ 01:17 AM EDT

Perhaps you are aware of the best leadoff prospect in baseball since Wade Boggs. He happens to play third base and is property of the Boston Red Sox. His name is Kevin Youkilis - a minor deity featured in Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game and coveted by Oakland GM Billy Beane. One wonders how much the presence of Youkilis in the Sox' organisation weighed on Beane's original decision to jump ship. One also wonders whether the negotiated compensation for Oakland (Youkilis) was what pulled Billy back aboard. But I digress...

In the 2001 draft, the college senior was taken in the 8th round after remaining undrafted the year before as a junior. You see, this guy didn't look like an athlete: he wasn't fast, he wasn't strong and he didn't have great hands on defence. But he was very good at putting the bat on the ball and had an exceptional batting eye.

He put his skills on display in short-season A ball after signing, putting up numbers that were better than anyone else in the league. Did the baseball world take notice? Baseball America did not rank him as one of the top 20 prospects (11 position players made the list) of the New York-Penn League, nor did they include him in their list of top 100 prospects in baseball.

Here is the story the numbers tell about the Walking Man:

Yrs	Lg	PA	OBP	SLG	Power	norm	BipAvg	norm	Walks	norm	K rate	norm	age
2001	NYP	260	.512	.464	.140	.108	.357	.301	.275	.086	.108	.198	22.29
2001/02	SAL	83	.422	.338	.093	.113	.315	.302	.188	.085	.134	.198	23.10
2002	FSL	339	.422	.388	.092	.113	.323	.292	.146	.088	.110	.178	23.29
2002/03	EAS	466	.466	.444	.119	.131	.347	.300	.182	.085	.099	.174	23.87

When Youkilis posted similar numbers in AA, he could no longer be completely ignored by the baseball establishment. Baseball America ranked him the #17 prospect in the Florida State League and #8 in the Eastern League at the conclusion of 2002 although the publication still omitted him from the top 10 third base prospects list. Interestingly, the prospect lists by league are compiled after discussions with managers in those leagues. The top 100 and top prospects by position lists are based on assessments by scouts, who remain unconvinced by Youkilis' success.

Youkilis doesn't have much power, certainly not as much as a certain first baseman who posted a .525 OBP in AA as a 20-year old a few years ago. But Youkilis is extremely difficult to strikeout and he should hit for a little more power as he approaches 30. His promotion to AAA is long overdue.

Youkilis has always been regarded as too bulky and not agile enough to play the hot corner. Reports suggest that he now takes fitness and preparation very seriously (working out with Nomar Garciaparra over this past off-season) and has shed some pounds. It's certainly possible he will remain at third base and play adequate defence despite his "bad body" reputation (Boggs was regarded a poor fielder when he arrived in the majors).

Lack of power is why Youkilis is better suited to leading off than to batting #3. The worst case scenario for Youkilis (other than a career-ending injury) is that he moves to first base and becomes a rich man's Scott Hatteberg. The best case is that he becomes a righthanded Wade Boggs.

I predict that in a few years we will see this man putting up OBPs in the .380 to .420 range for the Red Sox.

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