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The Bandwagon Update is now going to run once every two weeks. It will become official only when Toronto has finished playing Oakland and Seattle and if they have a realistic shot at a playoff birth.

TeamGamesWinsLossesBehindLast 2 Weeks
Seattle Mariners7449250.0 (+5.5)7-6
New York Yankees7344294.5 (+2.0)9-2
Minnesota Twins7440349.0 (+1.0)5-8


Oakland Athletics7343300.0 (-5.5)9-3
Toronto Blue Jays7543321.0 (-2.0)9-2
Boston Red Sox7341322.0 (-3.0)6-6
Kansas City Royals7238344.5 (-1.0)8-4




Current Playoff Matchups: Seattle vs Minnesota; New York vs Oakland

Anaheim, hanging on the edges of the pennant races, lost 3 of 4 to Seattle and 2 of 3 to the Dodgers. Seattle lost 2 of 3 to the lowly Padres, one of which was a blown save in the 9th by Jeff Nelson. The Yankees impressed against two N.L. Central contenders, and then went on to take care of the weakling Mets and Devil Rays. Boston swept the Astros, but lost 2 of 2 to the Phillies - in Saturday's contest they were twice 1 out away from winning. The Blue Jays played steady baseball, outwrestling the determined Cubs and Expos to take 2 of 3 from each. They had no difficulty with the Pirates and Orioles, taking all 5 contests.

The Athletics are starting to roll. However, they took 6 of 8 contests decided by 1 or 2 runs and all their games were at home, so it remains to be seen if they can continue their winning ways on the road. Kansas City is back in the race for the A.L. Central thanks in part to taking 3 of 4 from the visiting Twins.
Blue Jays' Playoff Bandwagon Update (Unofficial) | 57 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_DS - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#99354) #
Quick minor league hijack.

Does this line look familiar?

4 ip, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K

His previous game:

3.1 ip, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K

James Vermilyea had another outstanding outing for the Auburn Doubledays. Methinks that he's not finding short season A ball much of a challenge.
Pistol - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#99355) #
http://www.baseballgraphs.com/winshares/
I have to get out of the habit of enjoying a Red Sox or A's win. My dislike for the Yankees have led me to like these teams, and now they're neck and neck with the Jays.

FWIW, year to date win shares are available if you click on the link in my name. Despite someone suggesting Halladay is more valuable than Delgado, Delgado leads the AL with 17 WS to Halladay's 7.
Coach - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#99356) #
The Athletics are starting to roll.

This is the biggest obstacle for the Jays' championship hopes. As Boston found out last year, you can have a pretty good season and finish second in the East without making the playoffs. The other challenge Toronto faces is keeping up with their competitors' roster moves over the next few weeks. Standing pat while everyone else makes improvements is about as "aggressive" as J.P. can afford to be this year; many astute observers still think he should ignore public opinion and get what he can for his most tradeable commodities. I was in that camp not long ago, but I'm now hoping he moves Stewart, if that lets him rent a starting pitcher. However, I won't be surprised (or disappointed) if Ricciardi cashes in all his trading chips before the deadline and sticks with his rebuilding plan. That would take courage, as the backlash for "white flag" deals would be considerable. The same columnist who (not so long ago) suggested the Orioles were better than the Jays will be leading the criticism, and the average ticket buyer won't understand.

The playoff bandwagon is a delightful, unexpected diversion this year for Jays fans, but is anyone taking it seriously? The most optimistic of the ZLC faithful (including me) didn't see this coming until 2004. When the inevitable losing streaks occur, I hope people will put them in perspective; this season shouldn't be measured by the final standings. 2003 was supposed to be about progress, not results, so it's already been a huge success.
_Spicol - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#99357) #
FWIW, year to date win shares are available if you click on the link in my name.

Thanks for the link, Pistol. Ranking the Win Shares, the Top 4 Jays are no surprise: Delgado, Wells, Cat and Halladay. The 5th was surprising though, to me at least...Orlando Hudson.
_Spicol - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#99358) #
many astute observers still think he should ignore public opinion and get what he can for his most tradeable commodities...The playoff bandwagon is a delightful, unexpected diversion this year for Jays fans, but is anyone taking it seriously?

I'm with you on this one. JP should not abandon the long range plan. The only way he should be adding established players (Schilling or whomever) is if they can be had for next to nothing and the only reason he should be keeping his own established players (Lidle, Stewart) is if he doesn't get early-round-pick type talent in return.

Escobar might have turned himself into a different story. He might fit into the long range plan now, whereas Lidle and Stewart do not.
Dave Till - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#99359) #
I still think Kelvim Escobar will break all our hearts. I hope I'm wrong.

I like the idea of sticking with the long-range plan - up to a point. If the Jays are still legitimately contenders by the trade deadline, I'd say go for it. Don't forget that, after 2004, Delgado is likely gone - and not only gone, but probably wearing the uniform of a divisional rival.

By 2005, the offense probably won't be as good as it is now (it may have already peaked, actually), so we Jays fans will just get to our 89 wins by a different route.
_Jabonoso - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#99360) #
Still i do no get it as why Liddle should go. For me he is a very good 3rd pitcher for 2 to 4 years to come, he is healthy so far. One of the very important tasks that JP has yet to accomplish is to sign Doc long term and Kelvim and Cory for 2 or 3 years. Convincing them to take market value should be tough but reacheable.
I tried to post in the Youkilis tread but did not opened the comments box, my opinion is that as with uber hyped Nick Johnson, I rather have a player like Wells that make you win by many other options than just taking pitches and for same reason I rather have Rios on my team than this freak, not that it is not nice to have many that do take a lot of pitches and bases and tires the opp pitcher, but you still need the big time hits and that solid contact that scares the pitcher as not to pitch in the zone, plus D, plus speed, plus...
_Spicol - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#99361) #
Still i do no get it as why Liddle should go. For me he is a very good 3rd pitcher for 2 to 4 years to come, he is healthy so far.

He is a very good #3 guy but he will have priced himself out of Toronto. He'll almost certainly win at least 15 games and pitch 200 innings. As a full fledged free agent in a market where he will be a top commodity (Colon and Millwood are the other two good SPs eligible for FA), he will stand to earn at least $7M, and I think I'm being pretty conservative when I say that. That's too much cake for this town, at least for a middle of the rotation guy anyway.
_Gwyn - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#99362) #
FWIW, year to date win shares are available if you click on the link in my name

I won't pretend to be an expert on Win Shares, but aren't they only useful after a full season ?
Pistol - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#99363) #
He is a very good #3 guy but he will have priced himself out of Toronto. He'll almost certainly win at least 15 games and pitch 200 innings. As a full fledged free agent in a market where he will be a top commodity (Colon and Millwood are the other two good SPs eligible for FA), he will stand to earn at least $7M, and I think I'm being pretty conservative when I say that. That's too much cake for this town, at least for a middle of the rotation guy anyway.

I still donít think Lidle will get anywhere close to what has been discussed ($7 MM+). You can get paid for wins in arbitration, but on the free agent market I donít think a team will only look at wins and innings and hand out a big contract. Heíd have to have a stellar 2nd half like he has the past 2 seasons (does 2 seasons make a trend, or is it a coincidence?) to get anywhere near that money.

I think Paul Byrd is a good comparable player. He won 18 or so games on a bad Royals team with a high ERA but he only got 2 years and $10 million from the Braves. Thereís so few teams willing to add money these days I canít imagine any team willing to spend big money on a middle of the rotation pitcher.

Earlier I was in the trade for prospects camp. However, I think the Jays will ultimately get more in the long run by keeping the players, offering arbitration, offer no more than 1 year, let them sign a multi year deal somewhere else and collect the draft picks. The players are good enough that if they accept arbitration it doesnít put a strain on the budget. I canít imagine a team offering the Jays 2 good prospects for any of Lidle, Stewart or Escobar. Think of it this way, would you consider trading Adams and Bush for any of those players?

I think the Jays should actually be in acquisition mode, if the price is right. If you could rent Colon for the rest of the year and then let him go to another team in the offseason youíd essentially be trading a prospect for 2 draft picks, plus you get to use Colon to try and win now. Essentially what Oakland does frequently (Damon, Durham, etc..). You try to win today, and yet youíre improving your team in the long run.

I suspect thatís why JP spent some time in New Haven Ė to see who heís willing to give up.
_dp - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#99364) #
Why not try to win this year? The offense is a machine, and the only guys we can expect to slump (based on career numbers) are Wilson/Myers, Johnson (who's benched when Stew's healthy, right?), and maybe Vern. I think Phelps is set for a better 2nd half, Woodward has started to hit a little better lately, and Hinske's comeback- hopefully at full strength- should offset any offensive downturn by the overachievers. The front 3 starters look solid, and grabbing an upgrade for the 4/5 slots shouldn't take much of anything. JP is smart enough not to sell the farm for a reliever, and I think the 'pen could be upgraded by promoting one of the young fireballers for August/September.

This is a deep farm system- there's a complete OF (plus Werth) in the minors, and the Jays only need 2 of those guys. They've got a slew of SP prospects, a handful of middle infielders, plus two valuable commodities at C. I'm not a big fan of doing things to "send a messege" to the fans (after watching the Mets do this poorly for years), but giving up with the team less than 5 games out in July would be suicide, not so much for what it says to the fans but for what it tells the players. The Yankees have been vulnerable this year- and that isn't true very often- plus they have no depth in the farm to deal from and are depending on Wells and Clemens to carry them. They're running Todd Zeile, Ruben Sierra and Juan Rivera out there consistently. Boston is tough but beatable. Until the Jays show can't hang, JP should stick with what he has, and maybe upgrade if it can be done cheap.
Gerry - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#99365) #
I agree with Dave Till that Escobar will break our hearts. When I look at Escobar I see Esteban Loiaza. Escobar knows that the dollars are attached to being a top starter. He knows he is a free agent and, like Loaiza, he is pitching for dollars. Next year, with the new contract in hand, he will get distracted again and he will be the no-focus Escobar.

Trade him, or offer Arbitration, but he is not a long term keeper.

Lidle versus Byrd. Byrd is older. Byrd had one year with an ERA under 4 in the NL. Coming into this year, Lidle had 2 years with ERA's under 4 in the AL. Better stats and younger equals more dollars. I agree that $7 mil is more likely than $5 mil. How many people would take Byrd ahead of Lidle in a straight one on one choice? Not many.
_Spicol - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#99366) #
I think Paul Byrd is a good comparable player.

Paul Byrd is not a good comparison. He had injury problems even before this year and that drove his price down. Lidle doesn't carry that injury baggage. He also has given up 50% more HR than Lidle over his career (0.15 HR/IP for Byrd, 0.10 for Lidle).

There are teams who will still pay for "Proven Winners" from "Proven Veterans". If Baltimore will dish out $7.5M for crappy, wappy Omar Daal, what would they pay for Lidle? A rapidly aging Tom Glavine got $35M over 3 years from the Mets. Woody Williams got $14.9 over 2 years from the Cards and he's injured more than Johnny Knoxville. San Fran has become pretty stupid with their money. The Pirates are always patsies when it comes to $$ and the Cubs aren't much better. John Hart has cash in Texas and is pretty old school. And the White Sox employ Kenny and Kenny is always capable of being Kenny.
Pepper Moffatt - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#99367) #
http://economics.about.com
I think the Jays should actually be in acquisition mode, if the price is right. If you could rent Colon for the rest of the year and then let him go to another team in the offseason youíd essentially be trading a prospect for 2 draft picks, plus you get to use Colon to try and win now. Essentially what Oakland does frequently (Damon, Durham, etc..). You try to win today, and yet youíre improving your team in the long run.

The other thing that nobody has mentioned is that a pennant run would put a *lot* of people in the seats, which could easily pay for renting Colon for three months.

The problem is that most teams play with a fixed "budget" which seems absolutely absurd to me. In any other business, you consider the benefits and costs of a new project and if the benefits sufficiently outweigh the costs, you go ahead.

In baseball if you're a GM and you're at your budget, you can't add any players unless you can convince your owner to increase your arbitrary budget. Fortunately Ted Rogers is an excellent businessman, so JP may have more leeway than most GMs.

Mike
robertdudek - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#99368) #
"The other thing that nobody has mentioned is that a pennant run would put a *lot* of people in the seats, which could easily pay for renting Colon for three months."

I've mentioned the "pennant race (win or lose) = more revenue" angle off and on over the last month. If we are within shouting distance, at the very least we should upgrade our bullpen.
Pepper Moffatt - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#99369) #
http://economics.about.com
Well, obviously you don't count.

:)

Mike
_dp - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#99370) #
"If we are within shouting distance, at the very least we should upgrade our bullpen."

I think there's a tendancy for teams to overpay for in-season bullpen upgrades because it is easy for a setup guy to post gaudy numbers over a half-season. Benitez is the only really "reliable" guy out there, and even if the Mets weren't asking too much for him, he really seems to implode in big pressure situations (anyone see that horrid 9th he pitched against the Yanks last night?).

I like the idea of auditioning Thurman, Chulk or Arnold in the 'pen- all the Jays need to make a big improvement is a hot two months out of one of those guys working two innings every couple games.

We could always see what the White Sox want for Billy Koch...
Dave Till - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#99371) #
When I look at Escobar I see Esteban Loiaza. Escobar knows that the dollars are attached to being a top starter. He knows he is a free agent and, like Loaiza, he is pitching for dollars. Next year, with the new contract in hand, he will get distracted again and he will be the no-focus Escobar.

I agree that Loaiza is pitching for dollars, but I don't think it's ever possible to determine an obvious cause-effect relationship for Escobar. If dollars was his only motivation, he could have earned them as a closer; instead, he blew up, horribly, in April.

Watching Escobar is like watching an auto race: you're overwhelmed by the raw speed, and you're wondering when, or if, he's going to miss a corner and go SPLAT against the wall. But you can't look away.
robertdudek - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#99372) #
dp...

People overpay because they don't know who is and is not a good reliever. I'm confident that J.P. and company can tell the difference.
_Dave Till, afte - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#99373) #
If dollars was his only motivation

"If dollars were his only motivation," of course. Now put down those truncheons.
Pepper Moffatt - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#99374) #
http://economics.about.com
You could always get another starter, put Hendrickson in the pen and you'd probably improve both the relief and starting corps.

Mike
_Spicol - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#99375) #
If we are within shouting distance, at the very least we should upgrade our bullpen.

One guy who I absolutely love (in a baseball fan sort of way) is Scot Shields out in Anaheim. For a guy whose primary pitch is a sinker, he has good K-rates (6.3/9IP career and 7.1 this season) and good control (2.8 BB/9 this season). Prospectus has him ranked the 12th best reliever in all of MLB. With Donnelly, Weber, K-Rod and Percival, Anaheim's bullpen is a primary strength, they will soon be out of contention and their system is thin, especially thin of position players. Might this add up to something?

But again, a trade should only be made if it doesn't ruin long range plans.
_dp - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#99376) #
Robert-

"People overpay because they don't know who is and is not a good reliever. I'm confident that J.P. and company can tell the difference."

Jeff Tam and Doug Creek, the Carlos Tosca remixes. I don't have your confidence.
_Spicol - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#99377) #
You could always get another starter, put Hendrickson in the pen and you'd probably improve both the relief and starting corps.

I like where you're going with that but Tosca doesn't get thrilled about the idea of Lurch in the pen. I'd post a link to the article I'm thinking of, but it looks like Canoe took it down. Essentially, Tosca's point is that since Mark doesn't really have an out pitch and since getting his big body up and down in the pen would be taxing, he's really much better as a starter. In my mind, the first point is sort of BS but the second may have merit.

But you could stick Davis in the pen if another starter were acquired and make Hendrickson the 5th starter/long man, not prone to frequent work.
Craig B - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#99378) #
The playoff bandwagon is a delightful, unexpected diversion this year for Jays fans, but is anyone taking it seriously? The most optimistic of the ZLC faithful (including me) didn't see this coming until 2004.

Coach, I did predict before the season that the Jays would contend until August or so and then fall out of the race and end up at 83 or 84 wins, mostly because I anticipated some deals in July. I may be wrong about that, and they may finish with a better record.

I still think Seattle or Oakland will walk away with the Wild Card, but if Oakland can't repeat their supernatural second-half performances recently, then there's an opening.

The Jays' best chance seems to me to be for the AL East crown. The Yankees are going to be very, very tough to beat but there is a chance that they could fall apart... especially if Torre does get fired.

This is a deep farm system

I'd have to beg to differ. Talent is pretty thin at pitcher (hopefully this draft will have helped), and I don't see a lot of "A" or "B+" grade hitting prospects, though Rios and Adams look good at their positions, and I like Griffin.

Overall, the teams in the Jays' system (the Dominican Summer League team excluded) are playing .486 baseball this year, and that's about right... the organization's depth is slightly below average.

I won't pretend to be an expert on Win Shares, but aren't they only useful after a full season ?

Like any other stat, WS are more meaningful after a full year and they are calibrated using a full year as a standard chunk. But WS can be applied to any sample of games meaninfgully.
Pepper Moffatt - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#99379) #
http://economics.about.com
But you could stick Davis in the pen if another starter were acquired and make Hendrickson the 5th starter/long man, not prone to frequent work.

I was thinking the same, but the stats show that Lurch tends to start out strong then implode, whereas Davis tends to implode first then improve if he's left in. In both cases the sample sizes are small, so it just could be random.

The problem with getting more pitchers is: Who on the roster do you get rid of? The last thing I want the Jays to do is carry 14 pitchers on the roster... but at the same time, I can't see them dumping anyone. Plus Walker will come back eventually.

Mike
_Spicol - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#99380) #
The problem with getting more pitchers is: Who on the roster do you get rid of?

Scott Service for one. Trever Miller would be no big loss if Davis were in the bullpen. Tanyon Sturtze has been better out of the pen than the rotation, but is by no means reliable nor likely to become a better pitcher all of a sudden.
_Jabonoso - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#99381) #
Colon pitches for a team in baseball weakest division, e.g. they will be in the hunt.
Saying that Escobar and Loaiza pitch for the money and only for the money is short sighted and a bit racist. This a premise in the "keep it simply" JP's philosophy "latinos are head cases" so you are better off with whites that get their uniform dirty. I rather have Loaiza in my team making half of Sturtzes salary that obviously is here for the love of the game.
_Jennifer Lopez - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#99382) #
I like tacos!!!
_Jurgen - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#99383) #
I'd also rather get more bullpen help than a "rental" starter. Unfortunately, the Yankees and Red Sox are in the same boat. With this offense, I'm more concerned about holding onto late inning leads than winning pitching duels.

If Urbina and Benitez are the "best" relievers on the market, I wonder if the Astros have tried shopping Wagner? The Astros' bullpen is certainly deep enough to withstand the loss, and they needed more starting pitching even before Oswalt went down. And, god, if they have no intention of playing Jason Lane why don't they just trade him to someone who could give them something useful for a third/fourth OF? (Royals? Rangers? Diamondbacks? Giants?)

And now for a 180...

There's talk of the Yankess getting Benson for Weaver (that makes sense in Yankeeland--Weaver is older than Lilly, and Benson is older than Weaver), but surely Toronto can offer something better than that without emptying the farm. He'd at least be under contract for 2004, albeit at a slightly pricey $6 M. He's worth that it he can regain pre-surgery form... but he's been fairly mediocre ever since.

Besides, I'm not convinced Colon will be available. There's no way the Chisox offense will remain this bad, and the wins have to start piling up soon, right? It's not like they're looking up at the Red Sox and Yankees; the Twins are hardly a powerhouse (although Morneau helps a metric ton, as will getting Santana into the rotation, and they've got the kind of bullpen that'll go far in the postseason).
robertdudek - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#99384) #
If Paul DePodesta's computer can spit out the name "Chad Bradford" then I'm sure Keith Law's is good for a couple of guys who can pitch who have little or no rep as prospects, and so would cost almost nothing in return.

Personally, I find it hard to believe that Keith Law recommended the signings of Doug Creek and Jeff Tam, but I can readily believe that Keith's input was instrumental in picking up Aquilino Lopez in the Rule 5.
Pistol - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#99385) #
Paul Byrd is not a good comparison

Paul Byrd is 32 and had an ERA+ of 132 last year, started full time for 3 seasons prior to this one averaging 177 innings, including 228 last year (which perhaps is why he's hurt now).

Cory Lidle is 31 (and will enter free agency the same age Byrd did) and put up ERA+ of 121 and 119 the last 2 years, this is also his 3rd full year starting, and he's averaged 190 innings the last 2 years.

So both didn't start full time until their late 20s, both started for 3 full seasons before hitting free agency at age 31, and both have been slightly above average in those 3 years. I don't see a difference.
_Jurgen - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#99386) #
If Paul DePodesta's computer can spit out the name "Chad Bradford" then I'm sure Keith Law's is good for a couple of guys who can pitch who have little or no rep as prospects, and so would cost almost nothing in return.

It'll be harder for Keith, Paul, and whoever's running the mainframe in Boston to get their man when their computers are all telling them to get the same guy. Oakland's advantage will be tested as they put up against the superior financial resources of the Jays and (especially) Red Sox. And don't you think clubs will be more reluctant about trading supposed middle of the road relievers if Oakland, Boston, and Toronto all want them? (Count me among those who think Beane won't be able to pull off another blockbuster this year.)

Good to give Keith props for Aquilino, but what about losing Lyon?
_Spicol - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#99387) #
Re: Lidle/Byrd...So both didn't start full time until their late 20s, both started for 3 full seasons before hitting free agency at age 31, and both have been slightly above average in those 3 years. I don't see a difference.

It's really not a question of stats as much as it is health. Aside from the HR, they are similar enough statistically. But the fact of the matter is that GMs pay less for guys with a sketchy injury history.
_dp - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#99388) #
"but what about losing Lyon?"

I've found it strange that the decision to let Lyon go is given a free pass on this board. That was a really, really bad call- he was rushed to the majors by Ash and then made to pay for it by JP. He was young and talented enough that they could've just sent him to AA for a half season to see what he still had, but instead, they let him go for nothing, at the point when his value had bottomed out. It kinda sucks that the solution to the Jays bullpen woes is the "closer" for a division rival and the fix for the rotation is the only thing keeping the White Sox in contention (not that I would've brought back EL, but it still sucks)...
Pepper Moffatt - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#99389) #
http://economics.about.com
I've found it strange that the decision to let Lyon go is given a free pass on this board.

I thought Lyon was done. I still think a lot of his success is small sample size related. His ERA is over 4 since May 1.

Keep in mind that not only did the Jays not want him, but about 9 or 10 teams didn't either, as they had a higher waiver priority than the Red Sox. So I don't think you can blame JP for not keeping him any more than you can blame Paul Shapiro or John Hart for not taking him.

To think the Tigers, D-Rays, and Rangers all had a chance to snap him up and didn't take it.

Mike
_Lurch - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#99390) #
When did the Tigers, D-Rays, and Rangers become good judges of pitching talent?
Gitz - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#99391) #
It should be noted the A's did not pick Bradford up from waivers or as a free agent; they traded Miguel Olivo, a good catching prospect, for Bradford.
_rodent - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#99392) #
Dave Till: "dollars was" works...concepts are singular.

Agree with Craig B. about an AL East first being easier to to get than the wild card behind the Yanks or Boston.

Jabonoso vividly refers to Youkilis as "this freak" What successful players with a unexpected assemblage of virtues do we recall? Do they customarily rust unburnished?

Also, about Kelvim and Loaiza and opportunism: Cito let us all see that he was convinced, with some justification, that baseball was all about race...Frank Robinson, too, but I don't get any racism off either JP or anyone on BB.

Anyway, I haven't seen anyone else mention it, but it's Coach's 50th birthday today. I am in high spirits, and as many seem to be, on Coach's bandwagon.
_dp - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#99393) #
Mike-
Here's his resume:
http://tsf.waymoresports.thestar.com/thestar/baseball/player.cgi?2768

There's nothing outstanding there, but he's 23 and could still develop. Would you take a chance on a guy like that in the Rule V? I would. It isn't like they were making room for anyone great by letting him go, so I saw him as a low-risk investment- worst case is he tanks, and at that point you can cut him, but best case is he does what he's done this year, and middle of the road is he posts solid AA numbers and can be used as a trading chip.

He's having a good year- 2 HR allowed in 39 IP, plus 35 K. Given up more H + BB then you'd like, but otherwise has been OK. No matter what you thought of him last year, we could use that arm in our pen now.
Gerry - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#99394) #
Re: Lidle/Byrd...So both didn't start full time until their late 20s, both started for 3 full seasons before hitting free agency at age 31, and both have been slightly above average in those 3 years. I don't see a difference.

Forgive my formatting...

Status of Byrd and Lidle prior to free agency

..............Byrd................Lidle
..............ERA.......WHIP......ERA.......WHIP
FA Yr........3.90......1.15......4.82......1.27
Pr. Yr........4.44......1.41......3.89......1.19
Pr. Yr -1.....6.51......1.49......3.59......1.15

Lidle has established a level of performance. Byrd had one year at his free agency year level of performance.
Pepper Moffatt - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#99395) #
http://economics.about.com
He's having a good year- 2 HR allowed in 39 IP, plus 35 K.

Agreed. But I don't see how this is any more representative of his abilities than his 14HR in 62IP last year.. or his 20HR in 125IP lifetime.

Would you take a chance on a guy like that in the Rule V? I would.

Given his awful HR/IP ratio, no, not really. Which is one of the few times I agree with the bulk of AL GMs out there.

No matter what you thought of him last year, we could use that arm in our pen now.

Given his stats this year, he'd be their second best performer. I'd wait until the end of the season to see whether or not his perfomance is a fluke, tho.

Mike
_Gwyn - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#99396) #
won't pretend to be an expert on Win Shares, but aren't they only useful after a full season ?

Like any other stat, WS are more meaningful after a full year and they are calibrated using a full year as a standard chunk. But WS can be applied to any sample of games meaninfgully.


Bill James disagrees:

Jake (Mountlake Terrace, WA): Bill, can we gleam anything from the Win Shares system after only 40-odd games, or is it a tool that's truly accurate after a full 162-game schedule?

Bill James: Nothing. Win Shares are a tool used to analyze a season after it is over. They have no relevance at all to a moving object.


That was from an espn chat. I knew I'd seen him say something to this effect somewhere, so I looked it up. I'd like to hear more as to why they're no good for a smaller sample set. Craig's argument makes sense to me.
_Spicol - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#99397) #
Anyway, I haven't seen anyone else mention it, but it's Coach's 50th birthday today.

Happy Birthday, Bearded One! Is it at all possible that this site could get to 100,000 hits today, as a sort of a birthday present?

I've found it strange that the decision to let Lyon go is given a free pass on this board.

Was he let go though? My impression is that JP tried to sneak him through waivers, thinking that no one would pick him up due to his injuries, and it didn't work. It was worth a shot...Lyon is useful but nothing special. The drop in his K/9 was pretty scary.
_Lefty - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#99398) #
On the question of go fer it, or not

Upon review of todays excellent debate I declare once again that they yea's have prevailed over the nay's.

So JP as it appears we have reached a decision and in view of the overwhelming view of your legion of disciples from the BB you should go forth and seek a reliable starting pitcher. We will leave it to you to decide what is the best deal available. We do however reserve the right to tag him 1 through 5 starting pitcher.

We believe that you have to accomplish this with the body of Shannon Stewart and prospects, but not really good propects.

We would also ask you to try on behalf of us to exact some measure of revenge from Kenny in Chicago if its in the cards. But please make it Colon, not Billy Goat.
_Lefty - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#99399) #
These two notes just in from Roto-world.com

Shannon Stewart - OF - Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23

Blue Jays activated outfielder Shannon Stewart from the 15-day disabled list.
Stewart will go back to being the regular left fielder. Reed Johnson will get starts in right field against left-handers and will give Stewart the occasional day off, but in order to increase his trade value, the Jays will want Stewart to play as much as possible.
Jayson Werth - OF - Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23

Blue Jays optioned outfielder Jayson Werth to Triple-A Syracuse.
Werth got all of four at-bats in his 19 days with the Blue Jays, which is a really poor way to treat a top prospect. Considering that Werth opened the year on the DL and didn't play much while with the Blue Jays earlier this year, he needs all the at-bats he can get.
_Ken - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#99400) #
So the jays may have a shot at the playoffs............. i really hope JP doesn't give up on any of the good prospects in the minors to have that shot.
Even if the jays don't make a trade who's to say they can't still compete? additions at the trade deadline don't always work, so why not stand pat and see what this team can do for the rest of the year.

That said i think the jays should definately trade Stew for a starting pitcher, maybe package him with some lower level prospects. the depth of the OFs in the system allows the organisation to trade stewart, i just hope there is a good market out there for OFs. Lets hope KC stay in the hunt! However i'm not optimistic on the return we would get for shannon, in my opinion he is still underated by other teams.

can't wait for the dealine............(baited breath)
Pistol - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#99401) #
Regarding Byrd/Lidle, I know see that I missed Byrd's 2000 season where he only pitched 83 innings. I thought it was part of his split season between Philly and KC in 2001.

I still think it's a good comparison. Call me stubborn.

Regardless I'd like to see Lidle end up with an ERA+ of 132 at the end of the season.
_Brent - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#99402) #
Very interesting news today. The Jays sent Jason Perry to Oakland to complete the JFG trade from last year. It looks like the December trade looks like Lopez/Perry for Arnold/Griffin. Does everyone still agree that this is still a good deal?

My opinion: it certainly is. With very few arms in the upper minors, JP had to do something, and Lopez was probably the hottest chip on the table. It stings to lose Perry, as he is exactly the kind of hitter that the organization likes, however he is exactly the kind of hitter Oakland likes as well. The value from Griffin should cancel out (or better) the value from Perry anyways. Emphasis on should.
_benum - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#99403) #
Bottom Line: If you have a chance to go for it, go for it. The rebuilding plans may all come to naught. Maybe the Yankees will load up with Vlad-types and be unstoppable in 2004/2005.
_Brent - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#99404) #
Another hijack to finish my thoughts. Perhaps I can phrase a better question: Perry or Griffin?
Craig B - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#99405) #
Re Lyon... I recall seeing that Lyon had said he wouldn't go to the bullpen, which may have had something to do with the Jays' decision not to keep him, I don't know. I might be wrong. I'd rather have him than not, but he's been just about adequately replaced by waiver pickups.

Jabonoso, implying that someone is a racist is a pretty serious charge. Isn't it a bit odd that someone who doesn't like Latinos would hire one as his field manager?

Re win shares, Gwyn points out that Bill James disagrees:

Jake (Mountlake Terrace, WA): Bill, can we gleam anything from the Win Shares system after only 40-odd games, or is it a tool that's truly accurate after a full 162-game schedule?

Bill James: Nothing. Win Shares are a tool used to analyze a season after it is over. They have no relevance at all to a moving object.


Well, my explanation is right and Bill's is wrong. He said that because he didn't think about it, which he never does on chats... Bill James in a chat is liable to say anything, I've seen it several times.

What would it matter if you looked at the Win Shares numbers after 155 games? Does playing the final seven games of the season have any relevance? Clearly, you wouldn't want WS to be used to determined a Player of the Game, of Player of the Week, because of the granularity. But using WS to determine a Player of the Month isn't a bad idea!
_Spicol - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#99406) #
I might be wrong, but I think there's a Jason Perry reference in Moneyball. Page 32. It doesn't actually refer to Jason Perry, simply a Perry who's in the 2002 draft.
Coach - Monday, June 23 2003 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#99407) #
I've also heard that Lyon didn't handle his demotion to the bullpen well, and continued sulking when he was sent to AAA. He never worked on his conditioning or pitching in the offseason. He was nicknamed "Spicoli" by his peers (which, with apologies to our pal Spicol, is a handle that doesn't suggest intense concentration or dedication to his craft.) Getting cut loose was the wakeup call Lyon needed to start taking his career seriously; he hired a personal trainer for the first time and stopped whining about being a reliever. His improvement was unlikely to happen if he was out of shape and pouting for another year in Syracuse, so I don't consider it a mistake by the Toronto organization.

I think any suggestion of racism is ludicrous; the main thing that ex-Jays Lopez, Cruz, Mondesi and Gonzalez have in common is an inability to lay off 58-foot curve balls and eye-high heaters. Some of them --just like Lyon -- weren't the most coachable individuals, either. J.P. hasn't purged the farm system of talents like Quiroz and Rios, he's given them a chance to improve their games, and both have responded. The Jays do want a certain "type" of player, but ethnicity, like size, age and previous big league experience, doesn't seem to be a factor in their personnel decisions at all. Identifying Aquilino Lopez as the best keeper among their three fine Rule 5 selections, instead of slugging American on-base machine Jason Dubois, supports that theory. J.P. cares about talent, not passports.
_Jabonoso - Tuesday, June 24 2003 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#99408) #
Given the same conditions for two players and one happen to be of other culture, he will be handicapped by that and the one WASP or WIC (white italian or irish chatolic ) will be chosen.
Even Delgado was charged for prsonalty issues ( that captain thing, that lack of leadership bs ). Tosca is a well educated, grown in the US specimen. But Lopez, Cruz, Mondesi, Escobar, Loaiza, Heredia, Coco, Estrella were brought up in slums, other language, other values. Garciaparra for one thing is mexican but could and did chose to be american and is in better shape for that. Does not have to queu every time in or out Canada.
Is not that all latinos should go, is just simpler to deal with colleges guys, whites guys. It is not bad per se, is just a way about taking care of bussiness.
I do not like the trade of Griffin for Perry unless it was the only way to get Arnold.
If the blog considers me a nuisance I will shut up...
robertdudek - Tuesday, June 24 2003 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#99409) #
Cruz was brought up in the slums? Seems like an odd place for the son of a major leaguer and future student at Rice U. to grow up in.

Are you sure all the other guys lived in the slums? I have my doubts.

jabanoso,you are really reaching here.

Of course there are particular difficulties faced by Latin Americans living in North America. There are various cultural barriers, just as there would be for me if I went to live in a Spanish-speaking country.

There's nothing wrong with a team trying to build a ballclub with certain types of players (as long as they don't go overboard). If one team gets rid of good ballplayers, another team will be happy to acquire them. Cruz is a good ballplayer, but not exactly the type J.P. wants and was deemed too expensive. The Giants were happy to pick him up.

Perhaps you think there is some MLB-wide conspiracy to keep Latins out. If so, you'd better take a look at the 40 man rosters in 2003 versus 20 years ago.
_Jabonoso - Tuesday, June 24 2003 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#99410) #
You are right about Cruz and many others, I do not have any conspiracy theory, there is racism in the states much more than in Canada, one of the many reasons iam a fan of a Canadian team. There are a lot of good latinoamericans playing at the highest level. If you make your all stars US vs rest except for pitching depth the rest would make a heck of a team.
Summarizing: My comment was related to a bunch of people that thinks that Escobar should go as Loaiza has to be cutted. I know a bit about Loaiza and one of his middle season problems was his fiancee being diagnosed cancer, if his skipper tought that being complacient and let him use his cell phone in the club house and not focused on games, did not help much. He always said that he could not understand the logic in Gordos extension ( too much money! in his own words ), i will be very happy if he starts the all star game even if he is not in BJs uniform.
And regarding JP and his team all I said that he is very clear about keeping everything simple. That means, among several other things, that cultural issues should be held to its more manageable form.
Having Carlos as skipper is not a multicultural thing as hiring Tim Johnson was ( he spoke very good Spanish and had managed several years in latino america ) and Gordo thought very high of his latino pups. Latinos vs americans is similar in a sense as college vs high school.
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