Let's define what constitutes a top prospect: Is it 1) Will assist the major league club the soonest or 2) Will have the most productive major league career?

I think... has the highest expected future Major League value.

Robert, I would only quibble with your rankings of Arnold and Adams. Based upon not overwhelming K rates and age I think Arnold has to be behind Quiroz and Rios at least given what they are doing at AA at the ages at which they are doing them. I have trouble seeing Arnold with a huge upside in the sense of being a dominant #1 or 2 starter (don't get me wrong, I think he will be a solid major league starter but I just don't see the huge upside). Adams suffers only from a lack of power. Admittedly he has time to grow into that but even JP has never really expressed an expectation of that. His analogies to Walt Weiss at the time of the draft I think may do some disservice to Adams' ultimate offensive abilities but I do not see plus .400 slugging percentages in his future. The OBS so far is consistantly excellent and that of course has value. My top 5 would be Quiroz, Rios, Gross, Arnold, Adams.

1. Quiroz
2. Gross
3. McGowan
4. Rios
5. Adams
6. Bush
7. Arnold
8. League
9. Nin
10. Griffin

Kevin Cash is right there too. He's that good defensively. I really like Francisco Rosario but will have to see how he bounces back from surgery. And it's too early to tell on Aaron Hill obviously, but I like the thought of Hill.

These are all going to look pretty similar very quickly.

1. Quiroz
2. Rios
3. Bush
4. McGowan
5. Gross
6. Arnold
7. Adams
8. League
9. Hill
10. Vermilyea

Honorable mentions: Werth, Cash, Griffin, Pleiness, Perkins, Nin, Rosario, and the rest of the 2003 pitching booty. And Simon Pond gets the Top Not-Quite-Prospect award.

I'll do a meta-analysis when people stop posting. Thanks for setting this up, Robert.

Nigel,

I don't consider my rankings to be a "highest upside" list. I think Arnold will be a productive major league pitcher. I think Adams will have to develop some power to be a star, and that isn't a foregone conclusion. Rios and Quiroz have broken out this year, but that's only a little more than half a season, so I think sample size dictates that we reign in our expectations a little.

The main reason I chose Arnold at #1 is that he's the closest to the big leagues and has a chance to be a very good pitcher. I tend to shy away from A ball pitchers because there is an awful lot that has to go right for them to be even marginal big leaguers.

For that reason I'll flip-flop League and McGowan at #7 and #9. So my revised list is: Arnold, Quiroz, Adams, Rios, Gross, Bush, McGowan, Griffin, League, Perkins

If you add 6-10 ranked players we'll include you in the official tally.

1. Rios
2. Quiroz
3. McGowan
4. Bush
5. Adams
6. Gross
7. Arnold
8. Perkins
9. Griffin
10. League

Boy, this is tough. I think having Rios and Quiroz 1 and 2 is pretty obvious, but then after that it's based on each poster's biases, and even then I'm not sure in any of these cases because I haven't seen a lot of these guys play. And this is going to get even tougher in a couple of years.

Honourable Mention: Werth, Cash, Rosario (same reservations as everyone else- if he's healthy, he's top 5), Nin, Pleiness, and the 2003 class (too early to make any predictions - although HIll and Vermilyea are doing their best to bring attention to themselves)

Thanks Rober for setting this up. My full list:

1. Quiroz
2. Rios
3. Gross
4. Arnold
5. Adams
6. McGowan
7. Bush
8. Griffin
9. Cash
10. League

I agree with Robert I think you have to put A ball pitchers and below low on the list. But League is holding his own in high A at twenty (I think) so that is pretty impressive.

1-Rios
2-Mcgowan
3-Quiroz
4-Gross
5-Bush
6-League
7-Arnold
8-Griffin
9-Adams
10-Perkins
You may flip first five and next five any way you want.

I have nothing to contribute other than what The Prospect Report said back in November:

System Overview In 30 Words Or Less: Not really a superstar in the group, but 10 solid prospects here. It's a "good depth over star quality" type of system.

10. Vinny Chulk
9. League
8. Gross
7. Bush
6. Adams
5. Werth
4. Rios
3. Rosario
2. Cash
1. McGowan

At the time, Arnold was the number #2 prospect in Oakland, behind Harden, and Griffin #5. But McGowan was #65 in the overall rankings, and Arnold #80. So, cut League and Chulk, make Arnold the Jays' #2, and toss Griffin in either just ahead or just behind Rios, and you've still got a "solid" top ten.

Jurgen,

You would still take Cash over Quiroz?

Hey, it's not my list, but clearly the absence of Quiroz is the most glarring from the Prospect Report's list.

Was Quiroz on anybody's radar screen in 2002?

Yup, Gord built us a good minor league system.

And Werth above Adams, Bush, and Gross?

The more significant change to me is that none of our own lists puts Francisco Rosario in the top ten. Rosario's status hasn't changed since October -- he had a torn ligament then, and as far as I know he's recovering from TJ now -- so the only possible explanations are:

1. Based on the same evidence, we all think Rosario is a significantly worse prospect than TPR did, or
2. Other players have passed Rosario on the strength of good half-seasons.

I think that #2 is the right answer. Kevin Cash has disappointed, Jason Arnold has been underwhelming since his promotion, and Jayson Werth hasn't exactly set the world on fire, but no one has gone down in flames except Justin Maureau and Dominic Rich, who weren't on TPR's list to begin with. By contrast, McGowan, Adams, Bush, Gross, League, Perkins, Griffin, Pleiness, and Nin have exceeded expectations, and Rios and Quiroz have succeeded beyond any reasonable hope.

Rosario had a wonderful season last year, and I expect him to come back and pitch well in 2004 or 2005. However, he wasn't markedly better last year than Bush, McGowan, and League have been so far in 2003. I had initially ranked him #10 but in the end I couldn't justify it. While his upside is high and the after-effects of TJ are much less than they used to be (see Claussen, Brandon), it's still something you'd rather not see in a young pitcher.

I take your point, Jurgen, that the names haven't changed much. However, there are a few new ones (Quiroz, Griffin, Perkins, Nin, Hill, Vermilyea) and a few who have dropped or disappeared (Cash, Rosario, Werth). This is partly just a fun exercise. It will also be interesting to see what the consensus is. TPR's October list was reasonable, but I bet that if we'd done a BB consensus list in October we wouldn't have ended up with Vinny Chulk on it. And we certainly ain't gonna end up with Cam Reimers (Vinny Chulk v.2003) on our list this year.

As far as I can see, the strength of this system is still depth, but the star quality is edging upwards.

Offseason top prospect lists:

    TPR      BA       TPA      Jordan
1   McGowan  McGowan  Werth    Adams
2   Cash     Werth    McGowan  Gross
3   Rosario  Cash     Rosario  Arnold
4   Rios     Rosario  Arnold   Godwin
5   Werth    League   Gross    Griffin
6   Adams    Rios     Quiroz   Werth
7   Bush     Adams    Perry    Smith
8   Gross    Chulk    Cash     Rich
9   League   Gross    League   Perry
10  Chulk    Quiroz   Rios     Cash
11                             Bush, McGowan, League

TPR = The Prospect Report (November 2, 2002)
BA = Baseball America (December 4, 2002)
TPA = Top Prospect Alert (February 21, 2003)
Jordan = needs no introduction (February 21, 2003)

As a sign of how much things have changed, Rios and McGowan only made three of these top 10 lists. Quiroz made two, and Bush made one. (I haven't counted Jordan's 11th-places). Omitting any of those four right now would be awfully strange.

BA and TPA had GQ on their radar screen last year. On the other hand, the not-yet-anointed ZLC was skeptical of the high rankings that BA gave to Rios, Quiroz, and McGowan.

Personally, I think this little retrospective supports the practice of naming A-ball pitchers to top prospect lists despite the hurdles they have to overcome to make it to the show.

Just a quick question, how do people see the jays system vs other team's?
I would place them in the top 10, maybe top 5. In a years time when most of the current talent has moved up and started to fill syracuse then the jays will definately have one of the best farms in all of baseball.

the not-yet-anointed ZLC was skeptical of the high rankings that BA gave to Rios, Quiroz, and McGowan.

Guilty as charged. I've just always been partial to League over McGowan -- no logical reason, I'm playing a hunch -- and I didn't believe that either Rios or Quiroz would be able to change their approach as dramatically as they have this year. It's a credit to both players, and the coaching staff; sometimes being wrong is a wonderful thing.

Gord built us a good minor league system

Nobody ever suggested the cupboard was bare when J.P. took over, and he's promoted the right guys without trading away any future stars. In fact, flipping Lopez for Arnold was immediately one of my favourite Ricciardi moves. It may also be necessary to deal one or two of the talented young pitchers and outfielders this winter to rebuild the Toronto pitching staff for 2004. But it's the last two drafts that have given the system its present depth and made selecting a top 10 a difficult exercise. I have no idea where Hill, Banks and Vermilyea fit in, or who they may eventually bump from the list. I'm just glad there's no "filler" like Vinny Chulk (or Jayson Werth) being mentioned any more.

Was Quiroz on anybody's radar screen in 2002?

Absolutely. He always had the arm. That bat was expected to come around but he really exceeded expectations pretty quickly. BA ranked him 12th before the season.

1. Quiroz
2. Rios
3. McGowan
4. Gross
5. Arnold
6. Griffin
7. Adams
8. Bush
9. League
10. Negron (mostly so I can say I had him on my list if he pulls a Rios)

I did not consider any of the 2003 draft class in this list, although if I did only Hill would slip in the top 10 right now (and probably at 10).

my list:

1-Rios
2-McGowan
3-Quiroz
4-Bush
5-Gross
6-Adams
7-Arnold
8-League
9-Griffin
10-Nin

Geez, John -- thanks for bringing up my boneheaded pre-season Top 10. There goes whatever legitimacy I had built up around here vis-a-vis prospects. ;-)

Looking back on my list, we can start by clearing Tyrell Godwin and Mike Smith out of there. I expected Godwin to blossom more than he did; although he's finally healthy and he's displaying good strike-zone judgment, he's not developing the all-around skills I thought he would. Smith I simply overestimated; rookie mistake.

I'll also confess I didn't see Rios or Quiroz coming at all. I didn't think Alexis would really take to the plate-discipline instruction, nor did I think he would explode like this -- though I did say that if he ever did put it all together, we could be looking at the next Dave Winfield, and in that at least I'm looking a tad prescient. I didn't buy Quiroz's bat being for real, either -- in fact, until his walk totals jumped in June, I was still expecting a drop-off. The offence really has come out of nowhere, but the defence was always there.

As for the rest, Russ Adams has justified my faith in him; after posting fairly ordinary numbers in Dunedin, he's broken out of the gate strong at Double-A: .326/.375/.416 in his first 89 ABs. Ditto for Gabe Gross, who ran up a 900 OPS at New Haven a year after struggling at Tennessee. Jason Arnold was solid in New Haven and although he's struggled somewhat thus far at Syracuse, his peripherals are still strong and I still expect him to be in Toronto by next June. John-Ford Griffin is still striking out too much, but he's really come on strong lately: up to .275/.348/.482 with 22 2Bs and 13 HRs in 313 AB, after scuffling along in the .240s much of the year. Jason Perry didn't flatten the Florida State League the way he did rookie ball, but he was finding his stroke before the trade to Oakland.

Disappointments included Jayson Werth, who's had extra adversity to deal with; Dominic Rich, who was injured early and didn't really start getting his stroke back till recently (his average is now all the way up to .256), and Kevin Cash, another guy whose bat has warmed up (100-point OPS jump from May). Really, I think a lot of these guys suffered when rain and snow wiped out a lot of April and May games in the northeast, and now that the weather's picked up, so have they.

The three pitchers at #11 -- Bush, McGowan, League -- were placed there purposely, not because of any doubt about their talent but because A-Ball pitchers are just too much of a crapshoot (did someone mention Frankie Rosario?). Now that Bush and McGowan have hit AA, however, and held their own, I'm much more confident in them.

So, now that we're doing midseason lists, who to rank where? Using Robert's criteria of the player with the highest fulfillable upside, rather than the players closest to the majors (which I think is the right approach), here's where I stand now:

1. Alexis Rios
2. Gabe Gross
3. Russ Adams
4. Guillermo Quiroz
5. David Bush
6. Dustin McGowan
7. Jason Arnold
8. John-Ford Griffin
9. Kevin Cash
10. Dave Gassner (a guy can dream, can't he?)

If I did include A-Ball pitchers, I would start with Brandon League and include Vince Perkins, Sandy Nin, and the prodigal Francisco Rosario.

On this list, there's little difference between 1 and 2, between 3 and 4, and among 5 through 7. Adams and Quiroz are as high as they are because of their combination of offence and defence at key positions; if Rios and Gross didn't project to be major bashers, these two would be on top. I'd like to place Cash higher, but that 18/55 BB/K ratio at Syracuse, even with his recent hot streak, has me concerned.

I have to say, I'm really pumped about the Blue Jays' top prospects. It's very possible that a low-budget 2005 lineup could look like this:

SS Adams
3B Hinske
RF Gross
CF Wells
LF Rios
1B Phelps
DH Griffin
C Quiroz
2B Hudson

SP Halladay
SP Bush
SP Arnold
SP Thurman
CL McGowan

I have to say, I'm really pumped about the Blue Jays' top prospects. It's very possible that a low-budget 2005 lineup could look like this...

And that probably wouldn't even get you up to a $25 million payroll.

The Jays are putting themselves in an extremely flexible situation.

More experts opinions...Deric McCamey of Baseball HQ released his revised top 50 prospects list today.

14. Gabe Gross (previously 31 at beginning of season)
35. Alexis Rios (NR)
38. Dustin McGowan (79)
41. Guillarmo Quiroz (NR)
43. Russ Adams (74)
47. Jason Arnold (49)

Pretty good ratio when you have 6 of the top 50 prospects and by odds you should have less than 2.

In another thread, I rated Quiroz fairly low, and I guess I was being too pessimistic; I didn't notice the good walk rate.

I'd say that the Jays have nine legitimate prospects: Gross, Rios, McGowan, Quiroz, Adams, Arnold, Griffin, Bush, and Hill (who is obviously further away). I'd rank Cash and some of the young pitchers (League, Pleiness, etc.) as possibles.

The big question is whether any of these players will become stars. You can't win unless you have players who are among the very best in the league, and it's impossible to tell how whether any of these prospects are going to get that good. I assume that the Jays are going to lose Halladay, Delgado and Escobar (I guess they might keep Doc); to get where they want to go, they're going to have to replace that talent and then build on it.

After consulting the ouija board...

1. Quiroz
2. Adams
3. Bush
4. Rios
5. Gross
6. Arnold
7. Hill
8. League
9. McGowan
10. Griffin

Guys I hated to leave out: Rich, Cash, Rosario, Perkins, Banks, Vermilyea. Obviously, I'm giving a lot of weight to position scarcity. Jordan, I think that Bush will be the closer in 2005, with McGowan in the rotation. Pistol, I'm hoping that Halladay's renegotiated and extended contract might push the payroll up a bit over $25 MM, but it's still a lot of talent for the money. They will be able to afford a better bullpen and some veteran pinch-hitters.

Somebody questioned above about the place the BJ's minor league system among other organizations. I do not know how to get the sources, but its been in 10 to 20 range. Absolutly not in the top five. Good systems are very very goood ( Indians, Cubs, Atlanta )
Our is still thin. No corner infielders of real value, no lefthanders, no big power guys, few middle infielders ( it does not matter if we have more than enough ). My guess is that BA will have us around 12th.

Pistol, I'm hoping that Halladay's renegotiated and extended contract might push the payroll up a bit over $25 MM

I had Halladay getting $10 million of that $25 total. I don't remember the specifics of the Hinske and Wells contract, but it averaged $3 million/year, so let's say $5 million in 2005. Most of the rest of the team will still be in the first 3 years of their contract so they'll be real cheap.

Of the hitters in the minors I think Quiroz has the highest ceiling, just because he's doing so well in AA at just age 21. His age is age/level ratio is probably the best in the organization.

It's amazing looking at the lists from this winter how fast players can rise and fall.

Aren't corner infielders just people who can't cut it elswhere?

I am going with the Jordan list, only changed slightly. Pitchers are always a risk and have to be downgraded accordingly. Catchers too develop differently than other position players.

1. Alexis Rios
2. Gabe Gross
3. Russ Adams
4. Guillermo Quiroz
5. Jayson Werth (he needs consistent playing time)
6. John-Ford Griffin
7. David Bush
8. Dustin McGowan
9. Jason Arnold
10. Dominic Rich (someone has to vote for him)

11 ballots have been submitted to this point. I'd like as many top 10 lists as possible, since the more participants there are the more confidence we can have in the consensus list.

In a couple of days I will post the consensus list.

Gord built us a good minor league system

No, he didn't. A minor league system isn't just a collection of players; talented players are the raw materials. You have to develop those players and you have to have a plan.

That said, Ash had some pretty good drafts - but I like the last two drafts better, hopefully those guys will come along.

My list:

1 Rios
2 Arnold
3 Adams
4 Gross
5 Quiroz
6 Bush
7 McGowan
8 Griffin
9 Hill
10 Cash

Rios and Gross have shot up this list, obviously. Hill could be #1 by the end of this year, he has annihilated the NYP League and has been the best player in the league so far except Vermilyea. Once he moves up, we'll get a better handle on whether he's a superstar prospect or not.

The first nine players on that list are now excellent prospects in my view, a testament to the teaching staff this team has, because over the winter I would have thought maybe two of them were excellent.

Incidentally, there's nothing really wrong with what Tyrell Godwin's done in an league that is super-tough on hitters. He's still a prospect, but obviously not a top one... but he is so new to baseball you want to give him a couple years before making judgments.

highest expected future Major League value

Robert, I'm taking it that you want us to take a "sum-over-histories" approach to this, where players with a very small shot at reaching a marginally higher upside are ranked lower than players with a more likely chance to reach a lower upside.

Craig B,

Yes. I conceive of this as expected future value, not highest potential future value, based on something like win shares.

So,

Player A has a 15% chance of accumluating 200 win shares, a 40% chance of 100 and a 45% chance of 0.

Player B has a 25% chance of accumulating 150 win shares, a 65% chance of 100 and a 10% chance of 0.

Player A (expected WS) = .15*200+.40*100 = 70
Player B (expected WS) = .25*150+.65*100 = 102.5

Player B should rank ahead of player A.

Actually, Jordan, I think your preseason list stacks up well against the others. Yours was one of only two lists to name both McGowan and Bush. Your top three are better than anyone else's -- each of the other lists has two of Cash, Werth, and Rosario in the top three.

Coach is now Aaron Hill's official #1 booster.

Gerry,

Werth isn't eligible (more than 50 PA).

Gerry's revised (Werth-less)list

1. Alexis Rios
2. Gabe Gross
3. Russ Adams
4. Guillermo Quiroz
5. John-Ford Griffin
6. David Bush
7. Dustin McGowan
8. Jason Arnold
9. Dominic Rich (someone has to vote for him)
10. Brandon League

http://economics.about.com
Yes. I conceive of this as expected future value, not highest potential future value, based on something like win shares.

Wouldn't it make more sense to base it on a system that uses replacement value as a floor? I mean, a prospect who ends up just being a replacement level player isn't really of much value. Something like:

Player A: 5% chance of being a star, 80% of being replacement value, 15% of never making it

Player B: 15% chance of being a star, 5% of being replacement value, 80% of never making it.

Using win shares might lead to valuing player A more, but I'd rather have player B.

Or to put it more formally, I think you need to consider higher order moments, and not just the first moment (mean), because of the skewness of the talent distribution.

Mike

a prospect who ends up just being a replacement level player isn't really of much value

I have to disagree... this is where "replacement level" players come from - your minor league system. If you can't produce replacement-level talent out of your farm system, you've hurt yourself substantially.

So can we get some kind soul to compile our Consensus Top Ten?

I think Robert Dudek said he was doing it.