Well, here we are. At the All-Star Break, the Blue Jays are 49-46, 3 games above .500, 9 games out of first place in the AL East, and 7 games out of the Wild Card spot (behind Boston, Anaheim and Oakland). The consensus is that they’re out of contention for a playoff spot, and that the selling of free-agency-eligible veterans is about to begin. The most important thing to keep in mind at this juncture, I submit, is that the Jays are pretty much right where they ought to be. If they stay at this current pace, they’ll finish with 83.5 wins, which seems to be par for the expected course.
Their “current pace,” of course, is a tad misleading, since this has been a remarkably streaky team thus far this year.
First 25 games: 9-16
Next 25 games: 17-8
Next 25 games: 17-8
Next 20 games: 6-14
I’m pretty sure that the Jays aren’t the .680 club they played like in the middle there, and they’re not the .333 club they played like at either end. What they are is a young team with the raw talent to reel off tremendous runs of success, and with the weaknesses and gaping holes that get them into funks they can’t break out of. Now, for my money, that’s a lot better than a team that loses one, wins one, loses two, wins one, loses one, wins three. When they say this is an exciting team, they’re right: you never know when the next roller-coaster ride is about to start.
It’s been a roller-coaster for us fans, too. The team emerged from a productive off-season and spring training with a lot of optimism, which was quickly dashed with a gruesome Opening Day loss and the ugly 7-13 trip through the Terrible Twenty. Soon afterwards came The Comeback against Kansas City, the sweeps of the Yankees and Red Sox, and the remarkable 20-8 May. Eventually, the next big downturn arrived, presaged maybe by Kelvim Escobar’s drilling of Jeff Conine that turned around a somnolent Baltimore team.
A few stats: the Blue Jays are second in the league in runs scored (behind Boston), second-last in the league in runs allowed (ahead of Texas), and third from the bottom in both errors and fielding percentage (ahead of Cleveland and Detroit). The hitting can be expected to cool off – already, guys like Orlando Hudson, Vernon Wells and Tom Wilson are in deep July funks, and the Greg Myers show will soon grind to a halt – but there’s hope the pitching can turn around, especially if the bullpen stabilizes itself and good young arms like Corey Thurman can take a few turns in the rotation. The defence – well, we saw this past week that the defence still needs some work.
But that’s fine. Nobody said this was going to be a great team or a playoff contender; they said this was a learning and developing year, and that’s what it’s turned out to be, with the spice of fleeting playoff aspirations thrown in. Add the blossoming of Vernon Wells into a more dangerous hitter than many of us would’ve imagined, the defensive excellence of Orlando Hudson, and the confirmation that Roy Halladay is one of the five best starting pitchers in baseball, and you really can’t complain.
So now what? JP Ricciardi is not known for being an indecisive man, so I daresay the decision on whether to fish or cut bait has been made, and that the bait is currently being cut. It’s become clear that although the Jays are ahead of schedule developmentally, they’re not far enough ahead to warrant deviation from the reconstruction plan. We’re unlikely to see any Steve Trachsel- or Esteban Loaizia-like short-term-fix acquisitions (or, if we’re lucky, any more John Wasdin-like acquisitions); rather, the players JP will be adding in the next several months will be longer-term parts to the puzzle, while subtracting guys who don’t fit in to the long-range plan.
Here’s what we can reasonably expect:
- Cory Lidle will be dealt. Despite his struggles, he’s still a workhorse with a sterling second-half record and one of the few pitchers with any sort of pedigree available on the market. He’ll be too expensive to bring back next season and won’t be offered arbitration, so there’s no value in keeping him around for the full year. He’s history.
- Greg Myers will be dealt. He has zero value to a rebuilding club, but a left-handed-hitting catcher having the best season of his life is going to be useful to a number of teams down the stretch. Don’t expect much in return – heck, cash or a PTBNL would be nice for a guy who many (but not Coach) expected to be backing up Ken Huckaby this year – but wish him the best wherever he goes.
- Shannon Stewart will probably be dealt, depending on the market. His name is worth more than his skills now: he’s essentially become a .360-OBP singles hitter who rarely steals and has no defensive value. Essentially, that’s Frank Catalanotto, and Frankie was non-tendered this past off-season. Keep your expectations low for what Shannon can bring back. If there’s no market for him, the Jays may keep him around till the end of the season; depending on the state of the market, they may offer him arbitration if they’re confident someone else will sign him. If he goes during the season, Reed Johnson can handle right field until Gabe Gross is ready.
- Kelvim Escobar might be dealt, if the return is sufficient. Interest in Kelvim around baseball has never waned, even at his lowest ebb earlier this year. His recent run of success as a starter – particularly against National League opponents – has not gone unnoticed, and there will be inquiries. The decision for JP & Co. will be twofold: whether Kelvim will bring more in a trade during the season or as a compensatory draft choice in the off-season, and whether Kelvim has in fact turned the corner and should be locked up for a few years as a Blue Jay. These decisions will be in influenced by factors beyond our knowledge – there’s still the little matter of a pending lawsuit, for one – so we’ll just have to sit back and watch this one unfold.
Generally, in the second half, we should look for some Blue Jays prospects to make their full-time major-league debuts, including Kevin Cash and Corey Thurman; for Josh Phelps to get regular at-bats and start hammering the ball again; and for JP to continue to separate the wheat from the chaff. In the minors, expect Jason Arnold and Gabe Gross to end September in Toronto; Alexis Rios and Guillermo Quiroz to end it in Syracuse, and many of the young prospects to take one step closer to the big leagues.
The Blue Jay world is still unfolding more or less as it should, and everything seems to be coming along at the expected pace. The key difference is that the players – and their fans – have gotten a taste of success, a flash of what it means to be in a pennant race. And that’s going to pay off big dividends, I think, in the next couple of years. Steady as she goes, folks.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20030713091529999