Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
You would think that a late-September game between a team that can only finish third and a club that has clinched last place would be meaningless, but that's certainly not the case. Whether you blame the bush league umpiring, MLB, Carl Crawford, or a pitch thrown at Ken Huckaby a year ago, there's no love lost between the Jays and the Rays. Tampa needs to win two of their last four to avoid another 100-loss season, and would like to leave town with a split. The home team, needing two wins to achieve their preseason goal, wants to make a statement by winning this fiercely contested set.

This was supposed to be Vinny Chulk's first big-league start, but that's something else you can blame on Phil Cuzzi. The rookie with the zero ERA worked three innings after Roy Halladay was ejected on Monday, so Pete Walker gets the nod tonight. The veteran righthander got the win with two scoreless relief innings in Baltimore on Sunday, and went five strong innings against the Tigers in his last start ten days ago. Since returning from the DL in August, Walker has a 3.00 ERA, and he hasn't walked a batter in four outings this month.


Jorge Sosa takes the mound for the visitors. The Dominican righty gave up homers to Hinske, Wells and Delgado the last time he faced the Jays, but he was much more effective in July and August, holding Toronto batters to three runs in 12.1 IP, despite seeing them twice in five days. Like several of his teammates, he's erratic (58 walks, 70 strikeouts, 132 hits in 123.2 IP) but has good stuff.

The Jays lineup does not include Josh Phelps or Greg Myers, as Frank Catalanotto is the DH and Kevin Cash is catching. Though last night's game was uneventful, there's still plenty of animosity between the teams, and between the Jays and this umpiring crew, which also had trouble getting along with the St. Louis Cardinals recently. Brian Onora, the crew chief, takes his turn behind the plate and will try to maintain order. But as we've learned, anything can happen against the D-Rays.
Game 159: Bitter Rivals | 81 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_Jack Foley - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#14090) #
http://sixthstarter.sentientcitizen.com
I'm wondering if Chulk will get a start Sunday should Towers be suspended.

And a question to those smarter than me---if Towers is suspended, must he serve out his suspension this year? Can a suspension be carried over to another season (or served entirely in another season)?
Coach - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#14091) #
300!

Carlos Delgado smashed a fastball off the restaurant to give the Jays a 3-0 lead.
Pepper Moffatt - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#14092) #
http://economics.about.com
We've been discussing what the '04 Jays may look like next year and whether or not there will be enough money to resign Escobar. Unless something changes, the Jays budget will be $48M next year.

First of all, it seems that the following 15 players are going to be on the Jays next year. I've got their approx salaries, and I've guessed that Halladay will get 7.5M in arbitration next year. That's just a wild guess, so if anybody can give me any more accurate numbers, I'd appreciate it. Also let me know if I'm missing anybody. The estimated 2004 salaries are beside each players name.

---
THE PLAYERS:

Under Contract (3):

Delgado 18.5
Hinske 0.8
Wells 0.7

Non-Arbitration Eligible (11):

Hudson 0.5
Kielty 0.5
Phelps 0.5
Johnson 0.5
Hendrickson 0.5
Towers 0.5
Walker 0.5
Lopez 0.5
Kershner 0.5
Miller 0.5
Wilson 0.5

Arbitration Eligible (1):
Halladay 7.5
---

That's a total of $33M right there for 15 players. We've got the following positions covered:

C (1)
1B (1)
2B (1)
3B (1)
SS (0)
DH (1)
OF (3)
P (7)

So there's $15M left for 10 more players. The Jays would still need a shortstop, another catcher, a couple of backup infielders, a backup outfielder, and about 5 more pitchers. There's the following internal options:

Arbitration Eligible (2):
Catalanotto
Woodward

Free Agents (8):
Berg
Bordick
Myers
Creek
Tam
Lidle
Escobar
Sturtze

Young/Inexperienced Players (7):
Thurman 0.4
Werth 0.4
Huckaby 0.4
Cash 0.3
Arnold 0.3
Gross 0.3
Clark 0.3

So how should the Jays spend the remaining $15M to fill up the 10 spots? Which players should be resigned? Are there any outside players (either free agents or players to trade for) that should be brought in?

Also is there anyone I'm missing and/or have I got anyone in the wrong spot?
_StephenT - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#14093) #
J.P. is on the radio.
Coach - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#14094) #
Jack, if Towers appeals, he could pitch Sunday, but would have to serve any suspension at the beginning of next season. Chances are, he'll get disciplined, mostly because he didn't lie. As Richard Griffin pointed out in today's column, the "dog-fearing youngster" will know better next time.
_Jabonoso - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#14095) #
Coach, would you please tell us your assessment of Chulk ( so far ).
_Blue in SK - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#14096) #
Just as a comparison, Millwood got $10 in arbitration this year. Your Halliday estimate might be a bit low. If JP can sign him long term and back load the deal, then maybe you could estimate $7.5M. Given Carlos' contract, JP may do just that.
_Marc Rapin - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#14097) #
I would love to see the Jays spend some money on a free agent SS that is a defense first(but not an offense last) kind of player. Everything else(position player wise) should be done internally, or cheaply. Spend everything else on one 5-7M SP, or a couple 4M SP and make sure we get one Mr. Reliable type of reliever.
_Wildrose - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#14098) #
Actually Mike the 2004 budget is at 50 million,reduced to 48 million in 2005.Good job with the formatting ,will comment after the game.
Pistol - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#14099) #
If I'm not mistaken Berg is under contract for next year for about $700,000. I think Woodward will be back with the team as well.

I think Myers will sign a similar contract again, Cash will be with the team, and Wilson won't be with the team next year.

I expect Werth to be with the team at the start of the year. I think Cat will be traded for a B level prospect (since $2 million can be better spent elsewhere).

Howie Clark would fill out the remaining non-pitcher spot.

I think Thurman will be with the Jays next year - starting or relieving if starting doesn't work out.

If I count right I believe that leaves 3 pitching spots open and about $10 million. That should be a good amount for 2 starters and a quality reliever.
Coach - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#14100) #
All right!

Carlos goes deep again. That's 39 for the season, and he's homered in three straight at-bats off Sosa.
_A - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#14101) #
Thanks for the update, ESPN's GameCast is brutally out of whack this evening (at least half an inning).
Coach - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#14102) #
Coach, would you please tell us your assessment of Chulk ( so far )

Jabonoso, he's been a very pleasant surprise. When you make your big league debut against the heart of the order in Yankee Stadium, it's not easy to stay calm. Vinny gave up an infield single to his very first batter (Jeter) then made a great pitch to Giambi that could have resulted in a double play grounder, only it slipped under Delgado's glove for another "cheap" hit. At that point, most youngsters would fall apart. Chulk battled back to get Bernie Williams on a tapper back to the mound, then struck out Matsui on a gorgeous slider (despite being squeezed by the ump on a perfect 2-2 pitch) and popped up Boone to strand the runners. He got through another inning easily enough, and I was very impressed with his control of his breaking stuff and his poise. His fastball isn't overpowering, but he kept it down.

The other night when Doc got tossed, the rookie came in to another tense situation and kept his cool again. He threw 27 strikes and just 13 balls, allowing only two baserunners. From where I sat, it looked like he was hitting the glove consistently and executing well.

He's much better than I expected from his AAA stats. I'm disappointed Vinny didn't get the start tonight, because that will be the test -- when he faces the same hitters the third time through the order, will they be able to figure him out? In other words, I think he belongs up here, but is he going to be a starter, or a reliever?
_Spicol - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#14103) #
Berg does have a guaranteed contract. He made $700K this season but financial terms were never disclosed on the terms of the 2nd yr when he signed. I think we can assume it's in the same neighborhood though.

$7.5MM sounds about right for Halladay. Millwood was in his 3rd year of arb, which is likely why he got so much coin.

I think you missed Politte too, who is eligible for arb. He'd get around a $1MM award, or a little more. Ditto for Woodward, should he be tendered a contract.
Pepper Moffatt - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#14104) #
http://economics.about.com
I think you missed Politte too, who is eligible for arb. He'd get around a $1MM award, or a little more. Ditto for Woodward, should he be tendered a contract.

Whoops.. completely forgot about Politte. I'm pretty sure they'll keep him. At any rate, he should be on the arb-eligible list.

Thanks for the help everyone!

Mike
_Spicol - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#14105) #
Uh, what's up with Julio Lugo? HR in 4 straight games...
Coach - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#14106) #
Vinny Chulk had nothing tonight; after retiring Baldelli on one pitch, he walked two straight batters and grooved a fastball to Marlon Anderson for a bases-clearing triple that tied the game. Toby Hall then singled up the middle, and the Rays lead 6-5. Too bad for Pete Walker, who deserved a win after five solid innings.
_Jabonoso - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#14107) #
Thank you Coach
Coach - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#14108) #
THREE homers for Delgado!

Carlos takes Joe Kennedy deep to tie it up -- that's #40 in a fantastic season.
robertdudek - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#14109) #
Great slide by Kielty on the errant throw by Lugo. I wish Tosca would junk the hit and run - it's far too risky a play and it puts the hitter in a difficult situation. If the Jays approach is to wait for your pitch and hit it hard, then the hit and run stands for everything that is in opposition to that.
_Spicol - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#14110) #
THREE homers for Delgado!

See, Craigers...this is why we MUST wait to vote. ;)
_Justin B. - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#14111) #
For all the rancour that Cuzzi has drudged up here this series, that was a very good call on a narrowly-missed tag on Kielty's slide.
_Andrew Edwards - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#14112) #
Two small thoughts - I haven't worked through the big picture fully:

(1) If they go to arb with Halladay, I'll be seriously disappointed. There's almost nobody in baseball I can think of who'd be better to sign to a 3-to-5 year contract. Assuming that's the case, 7.5m might be a little low, but not too much.

(2) I think it's clear from JP's approach to the team so far that he will look to internal options first in most cases, and save his money for players who are really worth it. I think SS is the one lineup spot where we really have very little though, so there he might pick someone up. Is Rey "the good Rey" Sanchez available?

In my experience playing through a lot of sims (OOPT5 especially, which is obviously different from RL, but still), it's rarely a good idea to spend a fair amount of money on a pretty good player. You're better off, on a limited payroll, to go with a 'stars and scrubs' approach - spend money on really good players - Halladay, Delgado, Giambi, etc. - and then find value in the rest of your slots. Seems to be both JP's and Beane's approach to things too.
_Jabonoso - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#14113) #
Also Tosca is missing Politte, and Bowles, and why on Earth, he brings Reichert with the game in line. What is next? Sturtze?
_Andrew Edwards - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#14114) #
Ouch. Guess Chulk is still a work in progress. Keep at 'em, Vinnie!
_Andrew Edwards - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#14115) #
Oh good. A beanball. That should help everyone stay calm.
_Andrew Edwards - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#14116) #
A sacrifice moving the runner to second? Alright, that's weird. Is that the first time the Jays have done that this year?
_Andrew Edwards - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#14117) #
Paid off. Sparkplug singles Hudson in to tie it.

FDoesn't mean bunting was a good idea, but whatever.
robertdudek - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#14118) #
Cash might single-handedly cost us the all-time record for fewest sac hits in a season by a team.
_Rich - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#14119) #
Does anyone know what kind of money Hudson, Mulder, and Zito are in line for over the next couple of seasons? I imagine Roy would be in the same range. I'm confident JP will get a deal done without going to arbitration. Hell, if they do go, unless Doc asks for 15 or 20 million per, what kind of argument can JP make against him? JP is smart enough not to drag the single most important person in the entire organization through a potentially ugly process when the whole point is to establish a new long-term commitment.
Coach - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#14120) #
FOUR!!!!
robertdudek - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#14121) #
Un-freaking-believable. That one was well over the restaurant!
_Another Scott - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#14122) #
Holy flurking snit!
Coach - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#14123) #
The first Blue Jay ever to hit four in a game. A new club record for RBI in a season. Can I change my MVP vote?
_EddieZosky - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#14124) #
FUNNEST GAME EVARR!!!
Coach - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#14125) #
Great hustle by Hinske to leg out a triple, and a nice job by Kielty to bring him home with a sac fly for the go-ahead run.

Bordick has added an insurance run with a solo blast. The 13,000 fans are getting their money's worth, and then some.
_Sean - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#14126) #
Bluejays.com had better update this headline pretty soon!
("Delgado lofts three home runs at Skydome")
_Matthew Elmslie - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#14127) #
I'm getting to be too old for these Jays-Rays games. My poor old heart just can't take the strain.
robertdudek - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#14128) #
He lofted one of them, but crushed three of them.
_Spicol - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#14129) #
FOUR!!!!

There have been a handful of times watching baseball when I've had overwhelming premonitions that something great is going to happen before it actually does: a Kelly Gruber slam in a meaningless game in the early 90s, Winfield's double, Joe's HR and tonight, with Carlos going for 4.

That was great.
_Another Scott - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#14130) #
Unbelievable. I thought they'd actually IBB him leading off the 8th, but then I guess Piniella's too proud for that.
_Duane Grassbaug - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#14131) #
OH my I just checked in on the game---LOS rules!!!!!4 too bad Tampa Bay isn't televising this game...on a side note this game has given my Yahoo team 5 HRs two weeks to late....I needed them 2 weeks ago in the semifinals and not now when I'm winning a blowout for 3rd place...oh well...Jays rule!!!
_Matthew Elmslie - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#14132) #
So what's Toronto's record against Tampa Bay this year - 8-11 or something? That's not so bad.
Coach - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#14133) #
He lofted one of them, but crushed three of them.

That one was a changeup on the outside corner from Sosa, that he pulled anyway, and was strong enough to get it just over the wall.

He absolutely pounded the curveball from Kennedy, which I think may have been the most satisfying, but the last one was the best -- off the top of the restaurant.

"I got lucky," Carlos told Black and Tabler. "Three hundred home runs just means I've been around for a long time."
_perlhack - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#14134) #
Was anyone else thinking that the Jays should keep it a tie game, so that Carlos could have a shot at #5?
robertdudek - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#14135) #
I remember when Mike Cameron had his 4 homerun game (I'm pretty sure it was last year). He actually came up again and had a shot at #5 - the pressure must have been unbelieveable. No one's ever hit 5 in a game in the majors.
_Matthew Elmslie - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#14136) #
This win also means that the Jays would have to get swept by the Indians to avoid getting Tosca's 85 wins.

Of course, that doesn't matter, because the Halladay loss means that my prediction of 88 wins can't come true; what's the point of watching baseball if not to see your own predictions validated?
_Donkit R.K. - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#14137) #
All I cna say is WOW... that fourth home run was one serious blast!
_Wildrose - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#14138) #
Damn its going to be a tough decision a year from now regarding Delgado. My brain says... 32 years old on the career downside,many potential,cheaper replacements as a first base/D.H. type, huge salary, bad knees...but my heart after seeing that smile ,watching him be the first Jay on the scene to protect Lopez the other night,enjoying him smacking those four dingers ,says there has to be a way to keep him around.
Dave Till - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#14139) #
Wow. Just got home - missed the game. I'll be listening to mlb.com's archive tomorrow.

Delgado does have cranky knees, but he's not overweight, he works hard, he's very durable, and he obviously hasn't lost any bat speed :-). If he'd be willing to take a bit of a hometown discount, and if he'd be willing to split time between 1B and DH, I'd say sign him. He'll be as slow as molasses by the end of his career, but that just means it'll take him a little longer to round the bases after he crushes one off the restaurant.

It would be great to have Wells/Delgado/Phelps as the 3-4-5 punch for the next few years, methinks.
_Matthew Elmslie - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#14140) #
Wildrose: I know what you mean. It wouldn't be the same around here without him.
_Graham Hudson - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 11:34 PM EDT (#14141) #
As [deity] as my witness, I thought that last home run by Delgado was going to bounce off the JumboTron.

What was the estimated distance on that? I don't recall anyone hitting it off the top of the restaurant in dead centrefield before.
_Ryan - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 11:41 PM EDT (#14142) #
Delgado's hit it off the top of the restaurant a few times, although he's the only one I can recall ever doing it. When Barry Bonds was in town last year, in batting practice he hit one into the restaurant above Windows Restaurant.
Pistol - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#14143) #
Does anyone know what kind of money Hudson, Mulder, and Zito are in line for over the next couple of seasons?

Oakland locked those 3 up earlier in their careers so their salaries won't be comparable. Halladay will probably make more than each of them next year.
Named For Hank - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 11:46 PM EDT (#14144) #
http://bluejayscheerclub.com
The 13,000 fans are getting their money's worth, and then some.

AMEN, BROTHER!!

And I ran into Jonny German in the nice seats. You picked the right game to come to, Jonny.

OK, now that's gotta get some of you out to the Cheer Club with us.

Tonight's sign simply read LOUDER!
_R Billie - Thursday, September 25 2003 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#14145) #
Delgado could be one of those rare athletes like Bonds or Edgar Martinez or Paul Molitor who retain their hitting ability well into their 30's. Health is obviously the biggest question mark but after performances like tonight I'm always left scratching my head at how this guy has never hit 50 homeruns in a year. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if he had a 60 homerun year before his career was over. He reminded me a lot of Barry Bonds tonight...just jaw dropping power on some pitches which weren't even fat. The one off of Carter was a *changeup* that he waited back on.

I have no idea if they can keep Delgado AND Halladay long term on a payroll around $50 million (especially with Wells and Hinske's tickets going up in the coming years). But they're the only things currently standing between the Jays and a Baltimore/Tampa Bay level of talent.
_R Billie - Friday, September 26 2003 @ 12:08 AM EDT (#14146) #
Zito has an option year which pays him $7 million in 2006 before which he will have had 5.5 years of experience pitching at a high level.

Mulder is due a $7.25 million option in 2006 as well before which he'll have 6 years of high level pitching under his belt.

Hudson is due his $6 million option in 2005 (already exercised) before which he'll have over 5.5 years of high level pitching.

These guys were all locked up early and to put it mildy, they'll be huge bargains in comparison to Halladay who was paid over $2 million before he was even arbitration eligible for the first time (talk about handing out pointless money when you don't even buy out a guy's arbitration years). Halladay already earned $3.8 million in his first arby year. Next year he'll project to over $7 million and might surpass $8 million because of his performance two straight years.

Roy's not going to be a bargain. But he'll be worth what he gets. Especially to the Jays.
_Jonny German - Friday, September 26 2003 @ 12:21 AM EDT (#14147) #
There have been a handful of times watching baseball when I've had overwhelming premonitions that something great is going to happen before it actually does: a Kelly Gruber slam in a meaningless game in the early 90s, Winfield's double, Joe's HR and tonight, with Carlos going for 4.

When in the game did you feel it though? At the park, with Carlos at the plate the 4th time, I think pretty much all 246 of us in attendance expected him to crank it. He seemed to be in an unreal groove, crushing the ball without any real effort. I would have put my money on him hitting 5, and 6 and 7, if he had the opportunities.

And I ran into Jonny German in the nice seats

Running into me is definitely not part of getting your money's worth Hank... interesting that we should run into each other in both games I've been to since we met. Sorry for not chatting more, I was with my Dad who's more of a peace & quiet guy... although 4 home runs is enough to get a few hollers out of him.
_A - Friday, September 26 2003 @ 04:40 AM EDT (#14148) #
I'm not an especially vindictive person. Well it depends what you've done to me, but that's a different story. Either way, what kept my spirits up about the end of this season was checking in on the woeful Tigers and now they're threatening to not be the leagues worst team since 1900. This distresses me for predominantly evil reasons but you've gotta figure that if you've gone to the trouble of losing 118 games, 121 isn't THAT much worse and the guys that will never make it into the record books (for positive reasons) might have a portion of their dream come true.

But I think the Tigers' season brings up an interesting question. With the upper-class/tier of baseball spenders (Yankees, Red Sox, etc.) continuing to spend increasingly more while other teams are trying to cut back as far as possible, will we see a perenial Detroit Tigers? Will one club be freakishly close to the 120 loss plateau every year?

I'm not saying it's impossible to build a competitive team on a low budget because we've seen this accomplished in our own backyards. But is it possible that the game is shifting into a new, SABRmetric, era and as that is realized teams who were not built on this set of principals will experience growing pains (thats putting it mildly, imagine being a Tigers' fan) similar to that of the AL Central's basement dwellers?
Pepper Moffatt - Friday, September 26 2003 @ 07:46 AM EDT (#14149) #
http://economics.about.com
But is it possible that the game is shifting into a new, SABRmetric, era and as that is realized teams who were not built on this set of principals will experience growing pains (thats putting it mildly, imagine being a Tigers' fan) similar to that of the AL Central's basement dwellers?

Probably not. I can't see things going back to 1930's levels of competitiveness, not when every team has an equal sized minor league system and the worst teams get the first draft picks. There's quite a bit of a natural regression to the mean built into baseball.

While Boston and Toronto have been successful using sabremetrics tools, there's teams like Atlanta and San Francisco that tend to use more traditional methods and have been very successful. The Marlins and the Twins are both low-payroll and non-sabremetric.

Building a baseball team, like any endeavor has quite a few different paths to success.

Mike
Craig B - Friday, September 26 2003 @ 08:38 AM EDT (#14150) #
Sorry, folks... all of you who were hoping I'd make it out tonight. I can't; little Jay has his first cold and I'm rushing home as soon as I can crank out enough work to keep everyone off my back.

Next year, you all will see me more often I'm sure.

Re Carlos... WOW. Very satisfying to watch. He is the greatest Blue Jay of all time.
Craig B - Friday, September 26 2003 @ 08:41 AM EDT (#14151) #
See, Craigers...this is why we MUST wait to vote. ;)

I told Spicol that if Delgado hits ten home runs in his last five games, we're just going to give the Player of the Year to him anyway, and ignore the voting.

Four down, six to go.
Craig B - Friday, September 26 2003 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#14152) #
By the way, anyone who wants to change their Player of the Year votes (like Coach Kent!)... just send another e-mail, which you can do by clicking here, or if the link doesn't work, just send an e-mail with a major league and minor league Player of the Year for the Jays to otnorot55@yahoo.ie with the subject line "Players Of The Year".
Craig B - Friday, September 26 2003 @ 08:57 AM EDT (#14153) #
One final note. How awesome is this?

Delgado,1b 4 4 4 6
_Mick - Friday, September 26 2003 @ 09:23 AM EDT (#14154) #
I watched the Cameron game on TV and he actually had TWO more ABs ... and in one of them, hit the ball to the warning track in right, the opposite way.

As much as last night's game was very impressive, and it was -- as I said in a meeting yesterday, I don't mean to be skeptical, it just comes naturally -- it was at best a fluke.

I mean, Mike Cameron? Bob Horner? Mark Whiten?

Sure, sure, Willie Mays. But keep this in mind ... Hank Aaron never even hit three in a game. I remember the year Cecil Fielder signed with the Tigers, early on he hit three bombs in a game and just missed a fourth, he said something like "Great power hitters don't worry about hitting two or three or four in a game. Great power hitters are hitting one every two or three games."

Spot on. And incidentally, Delgado is, or is very close to being, a great power hitter. But this was flukey.
_Jordan - Friday, September 26 2003 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#14155) #
I mean, Mike Cameron? Bob Horner? Mark Whiten?

True enough, Mick. But also ... Mays, Mike Schmidt, Rocky Colavito, Chuck Klein, Lou Gehrig, Joe Adcock ... even Ed Delahanty. The list of four-homer guys is a lot shorter and more impressive than, say, the Cycle guys, whose accomplishment really is a fluke. You can be lucky to hit four HRs in a game, but more likely, you have to be good.
_Grimlock - Friday, September 26 2003 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#14156) #
One final note. How awesome is this?

Delgado,1b 4 4 4 6


There is only one word to describe it. Tits.

Delgado's game was PURE tits.
_Jonny German - Friday, September 26 2003 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#14157) #
And incidentally, Delgado is, or is very close to being, a great power hitter. But this was flukey.

Very close? Wow... high praise from Mick. I do enjoy your viewpoints Mick, it's good to see what a non-Jays fan thinks. I think most of us would tell you something like "Delgado is the greatest power hitter in the American League".

It was flukey, in a statistical probability sense... I'm sure Mike Moffatt or John Neary could nail that down for us if they're inclined too. But it was not flukely in this sense: Delgado, in the SkyDome, against Tampa Bay. Without running the numbers (maybe I'll do that later), I'm saying that that combination of player, park, and pitching was one of the most likely to produce a 4-homer game in the AL this year. This was much more like Willie Mays than like Mark Whiten.
robertdudek - Friday, September 26 2003 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#14158) #
I agree with Jonny. I think Delgado and Giambi are the best power hitters in the AL. A-Rod and Manny swing at more pitches (are less selective).
Craig B - Friday, September 26 2003 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#14159) #
It was flukey, in a statistical probability sense...

Sure. If you had asked me, before the game, whether Carlos Delgado would hit four consecutive home runs in four at-bats (not plate appearances, or one game, which is harder), that would be an easy calculation.

Carlos's HR rate coming in was 37 in 557 AB, so that is (37/557)^4, or a .0000195 chance. About 51,000 to 1 against.

Now if you could guarantee him four at-bats in every game, the chances he would have of hitting four HR in his first four AB in any one game in a season would be 1-((1-.0000195)^162), or about .00315.

That's about 316 to 1 against.
Pepper Moffatt - Friday, September 26 2003 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#14160) #
http://economics.about.com
Sure. If you had asked me, before the game, whether Carlos Delgado would hit four consecutive home runs in four at-bats (not plate appearances, or one game, which is harder), that would be an easy calculation.

That's assuming that home runs are iid, which they're probably not. I'd expect there to be some positive correlation between events, but it might be small enough so that this is a close enough approximation.

At any rate, it's something that is really, really, really unlikely to happen.

Cheers,

Mike
Named For Hank - Friday, September 26 2003 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#14161) #
I swear, if Carlos had two more at-bats he'd have two more homers that game. He just looked so good out there, like he could hammer anything they gave him. I can't imagine what this will do for his confidence level tonight...he could tear the place up!

Looks like the Cheer Club is meeting up in 524B tonight, for anyone who wants to find us. I'll be there around 7:30, so you can look for my orange shoes, silly goatee and big sign. I'm wearing a cheap reproduction of an '80s dark blue batting practice jersey today.
_Jonny German - Friday, September 26 2003 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#14162) #
Okay, as threatened, here are some numbers in regards to the likelihood of Carlos Delgado hitting 4 home runs in one game against Tampa Bay last night, at the SkyDome.

2003 AL Home Run Leaders
		
HR  Name
1 47  Álex Rodríguez
2 41  Carlos Delgado
3 41  Jason Giambi
4 41  Frank Thomas
5 37  Rafael Palmeiro
6 36  Manny Ramírez
7 36  Alfonso Soriano
8 34  Aubrey Huff
9 34  Bret Boone
10 33  Vernon Wells

2003 AL Team Pitching Home Run Rates

Team G HR HR/G
1 Texas 159 207 1.30
2 Detroit 159 191 1.20
3 Balt. 159 190 1.19
4 Tampa 159 190 1.19
5 Anaheim 159 188 1.18
6 KC 159 187 1.18
7 Minn. 159 184 1.16
8 Toronto 159 183 1.15
9 Cleve. 159 176 1.11
10 Seattle 159 171 1.08
11 Chicago 159 158 0.99
12 Boston 159 151 0.95
13 NewYork 159 145 0.91
14 Oakland 159 137 0.86

2003 AL Park HR Factors
		
Park HR Factor
1 Chicago 1.32
2 Toronto 1.21
3 Texas 1.19
4 KC 1.13
5 Balt. 1.03
6 Seattle 1.03
7 Oakland 1.01
8 Minn. 1.00
9 NewYork 0.98
10 Boston 0.90
11 Detroit 0.86
12 Tampa 0.81
13 Anaheim 0.81
14 Cleve. 0.71

So based on these admittedly rough numbers, it appears that we had the 2nd most likely hitter hitting 4 home runs off the 4th most likely pitching staff in the 2nd most likely park in the American League. This is not to say that we would expect it to happen on a regular basis if we simulated the 2003 AL season a couple thousand times. It was indeed a fluke. But less of a fluke than Kevin Cash doing it against the Red Sox in Boston.

Corollaries, corollaries, corollaries...

Whether Delgado's 4 home runs last night should be included in the data is debatable. I've got them in. He hit them, they count.

Obviously Carlos did not face the entire Tampa pitching staff. For those of you who want to break it down further, here are the 2003 and career HR/9 for the three pitchers he lit up:
Sosa .98 / 1.18
Kennedy 1.40 / 1.41
Carter 1.28 / 1.17

My park factors would probably not get the Robert Dudek Seal of Approval, but I think they should be reasonable. They were calculated as follows:

Batting HR/G at home Pitching HR/G at home
( -------------------- + --------------------- ) / 2
Batting HR/G away Pitching HR/G away
Robert, please inform if I've made some critical error. I know it would be a little more accurate to use HR/IP rates, you can chalk that discrepancy up to laziness.

I agree with Named for Hank (and we can vouch for each other that we were actually at the game) that Carlos looked completely unstoppable last night. I expected him to hit the 4th, and I would have expected a 5th if he came up again... except of course they probably wouldn't have pitched to him.
_Jonny German - Friday, September 26 2003 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#14163) #
It just occurred to me that I should have overall home run rates in the denominators rather than road home run rate. This just makes the numbers more severe though, they should still be in the right order. Indeed, my assessment of SkyDome as the second-most homer friendly park agrees with Robert's numbers posted July 24.
Named For Hank - Friday, September 26 2003 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#14164) #
and we can vouch for each other that we were actually at the game

And I can vouch for the fact that Jonny is nuts enough to spend like $5 a cone on SkyDome ice cream for him and his dad. :)
robertdudek - Friday, September 26 2003 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#14165) #
Jonny,

With the denominator changed as you indicated, you've got it basically right. We could get more sophisticated and go with balls put in play (AB-K+SF) instead of games.
_Mivck - Friday, September 26 2003 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#14166) #
Very close? Wow... high praise from Mick. I do enjoy your viewpoints Mick, it's good to see what a non-Jays fan thinks. I think most of us would tell you something like "Delgado is the greatest power hitter in the American League."

Right now, I'd probably agree with you. I think you can make an argument for Giambi and Ramirez, maybe even A-Rod, but Deglado is right there.

My original point, though, was that he's "very close to great" in the pantheon, which is VERY different from "greatest right now."

At one point, Andre Thornton was arguably the best power hitter in the American League (go ahead, someone can prove me wrong statistically, but Thornton was feared) ... but he's not in the Aaron, Mays, Bonds pantheon. Neither is Delgado.

Carlos has well surpassed Thornton, sure, don't think I'm making that comparison. But he's several levels down from the pantheon of power hitters.
_Mi&^%$@#!!!!ck - Friday, September 26 2003 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#14167) #
I hate using unfamiliar keyboards. Ergonomics (not economics, Mike) suck sometimes.
_Jonny German - Friday, September 26 2003 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#14168) #
I won't argue with you there Mick, it's a long ways from 300 home runs to 600.

Economics do suck sometimes though. If it weren't for economics we could write Delgado's name into the number 4 spot of the 2005 lineup right now.
_Donkit R.K. - Saturday, September 27 2003 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#14169) #
Ryan , I read at least one publication ( I think it was just a CP article) saying the ball went into that restaurant above Windows, before careening back out. That is, however, debatable.
Craig B - Saturday, September 27 2003 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#14170) #
When I saw the replay last night, it was a brief flash and you didn't see the contact, but the trajectory looked as if it was above Windows, maybe hitting off the facade before coming down.

I was too busy yelling "Oh Maaaahhhhh Gaaawwwwwwd!" the first time to notice anything of where it went. :)
Game 159: Bitter Rivals | 81 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.