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Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics, 4 PM ET (game 2)

I couldn't keep my eyes open past 1 AM ET, so I missed the latter innings of this game. Some of what I wrote yesterday came true: the game was decided by the bullpens, the Sox did manage to elevate the ball, and the A's were very patient.

One thing that I did not foresee was the lack of confidence the Sox had in their bullpen, which precipitated leaving Pedro on the mound to face two tough lefthanders even as his pitch count climbed towards 130. Time will tell if his effort has an impact on his next start (assuming the series goes that long).

Today, the Athletics have the edge. Lefthander Barry Zito will attempt to neutralize some of Boston's potent lefthanded bats. Tim Wakefield is an enigma - I don't expect a lot of success for him against a team as disciplined as the A's.



Tim Wakefield (2002/2003)
versusABHHRTBWKHBPSBCSOBPSLGK pctW pct
right72416025 26345175 18208.283.363.222.059
left651 15413242 77128324 7.320.372.175.106

These are interesting splits. Wakefield seems to pitch inside a lot more against righthanded batters (lots of HBP), while keeping the ball away from leafthanders (resulting in a high walk rate). This bodes well for the Durazo, Hatteberg and Chavez. Chavez has the speed to steal off Wakefield - we'll see if he gets the chance. Because of the number of passed balls Wakefield induces, the key for him will be keeping runners off the base paths.

Oakland Athletics versus Righthanded Pitchers (2002/2003)
PlayerABH2B3BHRWKSBCSHBPavgobpslg
M Ellis692182347 11691198110.263.339.380
E Durazo53213931228114112122.261.394.485
E Chavez81925157 7481021351131.306.384.569
M Tejada994297580 44561278015.299.346.490
S Hatteberg7982174442110879016.272.363.416
J Guillen4881402222925933413.287.338.518
R Hernandez62816729019561120015.266.340.403
J Dye56012727125561132011.227.279.413
E Byrnes3187820783558924.245.328.428

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

With the exception of Byrnes instead of Singleton in centre, there are no changes to the Athletics' lineup.

Barry Zito (2002/2003)
versusABHHRTBWKHBPSBCSOBPSLGK pctW pct
right131727731416127257121913.286.316.177.088
left36891121433971343.324.389.173.096

Zito appears to have a reverse platoon split, but keep in mind that the better lefthanded batters bat against a top lefthanded starter for the most part. Zito faces about 2 lefties and 7 righties/switch hitters in a typical lineup. Zito likes to pitch up and the zone and walks guys when he can't command his excellent curveball. I'll be surprised if there are fewer than 10 runs scored in this ballgame.



Boston Red Sox versus Lefthanded Pitchers (2002/2003)
PlayerABH2B3BHRWKSBCSHBPavgobpslg
J Damon35010119 862840343.289.346.440
N Garciaparra28997215101829534.336.383.547
T Walker3168117162027202.256.305.373
M Ramirez2168721 0144025101.403.498.694
D Ortiz23449151 91356003.209.260.397
K Millar2537617083236012.300.383.462
B Mueller24166181 112936003.274.359.494
G Kapler1925517301629420.286.341.406
D Mirabelli962940 5917001.302.368.500

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

How many lefties would Little put in the lineup? Damon was a lock, and Walker went from possible to likely after he hit a homerun off a lefty. David Ortiz seemed like a long shot, while Trot Nixon was almost sure to get the day off to rest. Boston might have gone with Mirabelli behind the plate with Varitek DH'ing (or vice versa)

So what did the Sox do? Varitek sits in favour of Ortiz as the DH. I, for one, do not see the percentage in this move.



Playoff Schedule
       
TuesdayMINJohan SantanaatNYYMike Mussina3-1 MIN
...FLAJosh Beckettat SF Jason Schmidt2-0 SFG
...CHIKerry WoodatATLRuss Ortiz4-2 CHI
       
WednesdayFLABrad PennyatSFSidney Ponson9-5 FLA
...CHICarlos ZambranoatATLMike Hampton5-3 ATL
...BOSPedro MartinezatOAK Tim Hudson5-4 OAK
       
ThursdayBOSTim WakefieldatOAKBarry Zito4:00
...MINBrad Radkeat NYYAndy Pettitte8:00
       
FridaySFKirk RuerteratFLAMark Redman4:00
...ATLGreg MadduxatCHIMark Prior8:00

 

2003 Playoff Series
New York Yankees
versus
Minnesota Twins
MIN leads 1-0
...........| |...........
Atlanta Braves
versus
Chicago Cubs
tied 1-1
 
ALCS
 
NLCS
 
Oakland Athletics
versus
Boston Red Sox
OAK leads 1-0
...........| |...........
San Francisco Giants
versus
Florida Marlins
tied 1-1
Division Series: Thursday, October 2nd, 2003 | 21 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Pistol - Thursday, October 02 2003 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#89255) #
I don't expect a lot of success for him against a team as disciplined as the A's.

Are the A's really all that disciplined?

NY - 684 walks
Bos - 620 walks
Oak - 556 walks
Minn - 512 walks

Oakland is closer to Minnesota in walks than they are Boston. Durazo's the only player on the team that draws a lot of walks. There's a couple around 1 walk for every 10 ABs (Hatteburg, Chavez), and then there's a handful well below that.

Am I missing something? Are they taking a lot of pitches and not walking? Something else?
robertdudek - Thursday, October 02 2003 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#89256) #
If you look at walks only, I'd agree. The A's are #1, I believe, in pitches per PA.
_Mick - Thursday, October 02 2003 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#89257) #
One thing that I did not foresee was the lack of confidence the Sox had in their bullpen, which precipitated leaving Pedro on the mound ... as his pitch count climbed towards 130

Forget Pedro for a minute. No, seriously. Say he wins two games in a short series; someone else has to win at least one. All due respect to Tim Wakefield, the Sawx best shot at that is Derek Lowe.

Who threw 42 pitched in relief last night.

I didn't stay up either, even in the Central time zone, and missed innings eight through 12. But Lowe out of the pen? One of my co-workers speculated that the Bostons couldn't stand the idea of losing a Pedro-started game. She may be right.

P.S. If the Yankees and Red Sox DO both advance, can we please reserve the Game 2 Headline Writers Option now for "Wakefield vs. Weak Field"?
_Jacko - Thursday, October 02 2003 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#89258) #
What was also interesting was the confidence that Macha showed in Rich Harden, going to him in 12th inning. And it very nearly backfired. The only thing he was able to get over for strikes was his fastball, and the Red Sox started sitting on it. If it wasn't for the Chavez play to end the inning, the Red Sox would have gone to the bottom of the 12th in the lead.

Where can one find a definitive list of which players made it to postseasons rosters? I wanted to figure out who was left in the A's pen before the bottom of the 12th, and completely failed in my attempts to look that up.
_gid - Thursday, October 02 2003 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#89259) #
Some of what I wrote yesterday came true: the game was decided by the bullpens, the Sox did manage to elevate the ball, and the A's were very patient.

Another thing you mentioned was that it was a good idea to bat Durazo second. The key hits with RISP of course contributed runs, but one thing that might not be noticeable from the box score was a 12th inning walk off Lowe. Chavez hit into a FC and replaced Durazo at first, and later went on to score the winning run.

The 12th inning was just surreal. Harden threw at 99mph but wildly -- a couple pitches were at or above head level -- one of which Hernandez couldn't even touch (it went to the backstop). The play by Chavez to come up with that rocket one-hopper and beat Manny to 3rd base was amazing. Then, Derek Lowe (pitching at almost midnight local time, 3AM Eastern) walked a bunch of guys and also gave up a couple uncontested steals. The bunt by Hernandez just broke the Red Sox' collective backs - you could see it in their faces as it dribbled out there - Mueller grabbed it and looked around in vain for something to do with it.
Craig B - Thursday, October 02 2003 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#89260) #
Bradford R
Foulke R
Halama L
Harden R
Harville R
Hudson R
Lilly L
Mecir R
Rincon L
Sparks R
Zito L
Craig B - Thursday, October 02 2003 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#89261) #
Halama, Harville, Lilly, Mecir, Sparks were the guys left. Lilly is the Game 3 starter I believe, so that leaves the other 4 guys available.
robertdudek - Thursday, October 02 2003 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#89262) #
If you go to MLB.COM's Gameday, you can see who is available in the game in the "On The Bench" folder.
Pistol - Thursday, October 02 2003 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#89263) #
The A's are #1, I believe, in pitches per PA.

Where can you find that?
_R Billie - Friday, October 03 2003 @ 05:51 AM EDT (#89264) #
Hooray for Zito and Foulke (again). I'm very impressed with the A's, using their ace reliever just as he was meant to be used. 3 innings in a game in which they trailed by one or were tied. And then of course to nail down a four run lead. If the Jays could find a relief ace like that...

Now that they're up 2-0 and there's no Jeremy Giambi to forget sliding, the A's are in a decent position. They have to win in Boston with Lilly though or else Hudson has to battle Pedro again to keep the series from being tied.
Craig B - Friday, October 03 2003 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#89265) #
Where can you find that?

Don't know actually. I do know this... that the Blue Jays led the majors in 3-2 counts. I thought that was interesting.
robertdudek - Friday, October 03 2003 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#89266) #
Look at the stats pages at mlb.com. They list PA and NP (number of pitches) on the second page. You can then calculate NP/PA.
Pistol - Friday, October 03 2003 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#89267) #
Well, by pitches per at bat the A's are on top in the AL. I find it interesting that they're first in pitches/AB, but are way behind in walks.

Oakland Athletics 3.88
Chicago White Sox 3.84
Boston Red Sox 3.83
New York Yankees 3.82
Seattle Mariners 3.81
Texas Rangers 3.80
Toronto Blue Jays 3.80
Kansas City Royals 3.76
Baltimore Orioles 3.73
Cleveland Indians 3.72
Detroit Tigers 3.68
Minnesota Twins 3.66
Anaheim Angels 3.66
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 3.62
robertdudek - Friday, October 03 2003 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#89268) #
One reason, I think is that they have a few guys who seem to be good at fouling off pitches (Hatteberg and Tejada).
robertdudek - Friday, October 03 2003 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#89269) #
Incidentally, the difference between the A's and the Rays amounts to roughly 10 pitches per game, assuming an equal number of PA. Of course, the A's, with a higher OBP, will also get more PAs.
_Jacko - Friday, October 03 2003 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#89270) #

Hooray for Zito and Foulke (again). I'm very impressed with the A's, using their ace reliever just as he was meant to be used. 3 innings in a game in which they trailed by one or were tied. And then of course to nail down a four run lead. If the Jays could find a relief ace like that...


Let the second guessing begin!

Why use Foulke to protect a 4-run lead? Especially when he had his longest outing of the season the day before. In Macha's place, I would have brought in someone else to get them some work. Probably Harville or Halama...
robertdudek - Friday, October 03 2003 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#89271) #
I think the stakes are too high. They have a day off the next day, and as long as they felt Foulke was ready to pitch, I say why not.
Craig B - Friday, October 03 2003 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#89272) #
I agree, using the "first-line" duo of Bradford and Foulke makes the most sense when there is a day off in the schedule coming up.
_Jacko - Friday, October 03 2003 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#89273) #

I agree, using the "first-line" duo of Bradford and Foulke makes the most sense when there is a day off in the schedule coming up.


Guess so, but you run the risk of burning out your top guys if you use them too much. Giving the other guys no work also makes them rusty...
robertdudek - Friday, October 03 2003 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#89274) #
I don't think you worry about rust this time of year. Most of the time those guys are only going to pitch in the playoffs in blowouts. If I'm managing in the playoffs I want to win or lose with my best guys.
Craig B - Friday, October 03 2003 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#89275) #
Which also leads me to question why you put 11 pitchers on a roster... but that's a horse of a different color.
Division Series: Thursday, October 2nd, 2003 | 21 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.