Division Series: Saturday, October 4th, 2003

Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 01:05 AM EDT

Florida Marlins at San Francisco Giants, 1 PM ET (Game 4)

This is what I wrote earlier today:

Scratch that. The Giants will start Jerome Williams.

Jack McKeon wouldn't mind things either way. He would have had the edge against either Williams or Ponson with Josh Beckett pitching. Now, the Marlins have a better shot at winning it at home and the Florida ace will be well rested for game 1 of the NLCS.

Dontrelle Willis (2002/2003)

versus	AB	H	HR	TB	W	K	HBP	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	K pct	W pct
right	515	129	12	205	48	114	3	3	3	.318	.398	.201	.085
left	88	19	1	27	10	28	0	0	0	.296	.307	.286	.102

Florida goes with another lefthander. The Giants left tons of people on base yesterday, and the Marlins will have to hope they do the same today.

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

The Giants made some surprising choices, going with Torrealba behind the plate, Snow against a lefty, and Hammonds instead of the struggling Jose Cruz (not surprising, except that he's batting 2nd).

With all the great picthers starting over the last few days, only Jason Schmidt was able to toss a shutout. Apparently Felip Alou changed his mind and went with the "regular rest" option. Jerome Williams has been extremely effective against lefthanded hitters. Keep an eye on that next year to see if it will hold up.

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

If the lefthanders are able to get on base, it could be a long day for the Giants. Jerome Williams has a reverse platoon split, so Florida's righthanded lineup works in their favour.

New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins, 1 PM ET (Game 3)

The Yankees are the better team, but they must win at least 1 game in the toughest place for a road team to win in the post-season. Lohse and Santana will be going against Clemens and Wells - that's a fairly evenly matched starting four. STill, the Yankees offence is always dangerous and I'm going to wager that they do indeed split in Minnesota, setting up a game 5 in their backyard with the pitching matchup solidly in their favour (likely a rested Mussina against Radke on 3-days rest.

Roger's splits really surprised me. The relative lack of success against righthanded powers for a power pitcher is extraordinary. Clemens seems willing to go after righthanders and the've hit him hard when they've gotten their bats on the ball. Although he walks lefthanded batters at a much higher rate, they haven't been able to make solid contact. We'll see how many good pitches to hit a lefty-stacked Minnesota lineup gets.

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

I've discussed Gardenhire's lineup choices in previous entries.

I don't like the decision to start Lohse, considering the Twins have lefthanders Kenny Rogers and Eric Milton available. Lohse in vulnerable to lefthanded batters and no one has more of these than the Yankees.

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

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