Division Series: Saturday, October 4th, 2003

Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 07:36 AM EDT

Contributed by: robertdudek

Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics, 7:30 PM ET (game 3)

Here's one for armchair managers. Do you start the lefthander Ted Lilly in Fenway Park against a potent Boston lineup, or do you go with the inexperienced fireballer Rich Harden? Personally, I don't think experience (or lack thereof) is as important as going with the pitcher who's best equiped to succeed in a given environment: I would have gone with Harden.

Derek Lowe (2002/2003)
versus AB H HR TB W K HBP SB CS OBP SLG K pct W pct
right 744 178 10 245 45 122 13 10 6 .294 .329 .152 .057
left 838 204 19 309 75 115 10 21 4 .313 .369 .125 .082

Derek Lowe (2002/2003)
versus	AB	H	HR	TB	W	K	HBP	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	K pct	W pct
right	744	178	10	245	45	122	13	10	6	.294	.329	.152	.057
left	838	204	19	309	75	115	10	21	4	.313	.369	.125	.082

Grady Little has set up his rotation correctly, going with groundballer Derek Lowe where he has the most value, Fenway Park.

Oakland Athletics versus Righthanded Pitchers (2002/2003)
Player	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	W	K	SB	CS	HBP	avg	obp	slg
B McMillon	136	39	11	0	5	19	28	0	0	2	.287	.382	.478
E Durazo	532	139	31	2	28	114	112	1	2	2	.261	.394	.485
M Tejada	994	297	58	0	44	56	127	8	0	15	.299	.346	.490
E Chavez	819	251	57	7	48	102	135	11	3	1	.306	.384	.569
R Hernandez	628	167	29	0	19	56	112	0	0	15	.266	.340	.403
S Hatteberg	798	217	44	4	21	108	79	0	1	6	.272	.363	.416
M Ellis	692	182	34	7	11	69	119	8	1	10	.263	.339	.380
T Long	777	188	38	5	25	65	105	6	5	2	.242	.302	.400
E Byrnes	318	78	20	7	8	35	58	9	2	4	.245	.328	.428

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

Tejada flip flops with Chavez to create an alternating lefty-righty lineup. Macha is going with two extra lefthanded bats - McMillon and Long. Only the 4 up-the-middle defenders for the A's will suffer a platoon disadvantage in this game. I look for the A's to play a little more small-ball than usual (even though they are on the road), with possible run and hits and possibly a steal attempt or two.

Ted Lilly (2002/2003)
versus	AB	H	HR	TB	W	K	HBP	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	K pct	W pct
right	836	209	35	372	74	171	9	26	2	.318	.445	.186	.081
left	240	50	4	76	15	53	2	4	2	.261	.317	.206	.059

For a lefthander, Ted Lilly is vulnerable to the stolen base, which makes Johnny Damon a threat if he can get on. If Lilly gets in trouble early, look for Rich Harden to come in against all those righthanded bats.

Boston Red Sox versus Lefthanded Pitchers (2002/2003)
Player	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	W	K	SB	CS	HBP	avg	obp	slg
J Damon	350	101	19	8	6	28	40	3	4	3	.289	.346	.440
N Garciaparra	289	97	21	5	10	18	29	5	3	4	.336	.383	.547
B Mueller	241	66	18	1	11	29	36	0	0	3	.274	.359	.494
M Ramirez	216	87	21	0	14	40	25	1	0	1	.403	.498	.694
D Ortiz	234	49	15	1	9	13	56	0	0	3	.209	.260	.397
K Millar	253	76	17	0	8	32	36	0	1	2	.300	.383	.462
J Varitek	254	73	16	1	12	24	43	2	1	4	.287	.358	.500
G Kapler	192	55	17	3	0	16	29	4	2	0	.286	.341	.406
D Jackson	147	34	8	0	0	11	21	7	3	0	.231	.285	.286

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

The power hitting righthanders, most notably Ramirez, Garciaparra and Millar, will take aim at the Monster against Lilly. Benching Jason Varitek would have been a crime today. The Sox will go with 7 righthanded bats, with Damian Jackson bolstering the infield defence. But David Ortiz is again the DH; perhaps Little is hoping David can hit it the opposite way.

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