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Florida Marlins at Chicago Cubs, 8 PM ET (Game 1)

Both teams' offences are righthander-heavy. This is an advantage for the Cubbies, since all their starters will be righties, while lefties are scheduled to start Games 3,4 and 7 (unless McKeon starts Carl Pavano) for Florida.

The only lefthanded hitters we'll see on a regular basis are Kenny Lofton (Cubs), Juan Pierre (Marlins), and the switch hitter Luis Castillo (Marlins). Lefthanded hitting Paul Bako might catch Kerry Wood, and Randall Simon will make a few appearances for the Cubs. The rest of the starting lineups will feature righthanded hitters. It will be a tall order for the Fish to score runs in this series.



The Marlins-Giants series averaged 9 runs a game while the Cubs-Braves series averaged 6.8 runs a game. The Braves hitters are much better than Florida's, and their starting pitchers are a little worse. That's an indication the series will be a low scoring affair.

NLCS: Starting Pitchers - 2003 regular season
PlayerStartsIP/start R/9ipW/9ipK/9ipHR/9ipTeam
Carlos Zambrano32 6.693.703.957.070.38CHI
Mark Prior307.042.852.1310.430.64CHI
Kerry Wood326.593.284.2711.351.02CHI
Matt Clement326.304.463.537.630.62CHI
Josh Beckett236.133.453.579.640.57FLA
Brad Penny32 6.144.402.576.330.96FLA
Mark Redman296.573.872.887.130.76FLA
Dontrelle Willis275.953.423.257.950.73FLA
        
Chicago Cubs 6.713.453.469.330.67 
Florida Marlins 6.233.843.047.740.76 

The team lines are the weighted average by expected number of series starts, assuming a 7-game series. The Cubs have the edge in everything except walks per 9 IP. Keep in mind that Florida plays in a park where homeruns are hard to come by. Assuming both bullpens give up runs at a rate of 4 per 9 innings, the Cubs non-park-adjusted pitching edge is about half a run. That goes up to about 0.7 when parks are considered.

Prior and Wood are slated to pitch games 6 and 7 if necessary, so the Marlins pretty much have to be up 3-2 after 5 games. They need to win both games that Josh Beckett starts (Games 1 and 5) and beat one of Chicago's big two at least once in the first 5 contests. If the Marlins lose game 1, they potentially will face Wood/Prior in 4 of the 6 remaining games and will therefore need to beat them twice at a minimum. That's why this first game is more important to Florida than to Chicago.



National League Division Series - Pitching
TeamIPHERWKHRBF BIPBIP avgK rateW ratePitches
per BF
ERA
Chicago Starters34.7281115322 14797.268.218.1033.782.86
Florida Starters22.31812112109664.281.223.0963.694.43
              
Chicago Pen9.3746 1014124.250.250.1254.203.86
Florida Pen14.71439706749.286.115.0513.641.84

notes: BIP rate is batting average on balls in the field of play; W rate is non-intentional walks per opportunity (PA-IW-HBP)

The Marlins starters kept up with the Cubs in strikeouts and walks, but had a higher ERA. They didn't go as deep into games (5.58 IP/start versus 6.93 for the Cubs) as Chicago's starters and therefore relied heavily on their bullpen. That will likely repeat itself in this series.


Probable Pitchers
       
TuesdayFLAJosh BeckettatCHICarlos Zambrano8 PM ET

 


2003 Playoff Series
New York Yankees
versus
Minnesota Twins
NY wins 3-1
...........| |...........
Atlanta Braves
versus
Chicago Cubs
CHI wins 3-2
 
New York Yankees
versus
Boston Red Sox
ALCS
 
Chicago Cubs
versus
Florida Marlins
NLCS
 
Oakland Athletics
versus
Boston Red Sox
Bos wins 3-2
...........| |...........
San Francisco Giants
versus
Florida Marlins
FLA wins 3-1
National League Championship Series: Tuesday, October 7th, 2003 | 22 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
robertdudek - Tuesday, October 07 2003 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#88797) #
There goes my prediction for a low-scoring series.

Zambrano was pounding the Marlins inside and they were looking for the ball there. To be successful, the Cubs pitchers will have to pithch up and down in the zone.

Encarnacion's homerun was probably the hardest hit ball of the postseason. Florida up 5-4 after 3.
_StephenT - Tuesday, October 07 2003 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#88798) #
Sportsnet says it is carrying the Wrigley game tomorrow night; no mention of at least one station carrying the Red Sox game (not even Sportsnet East). Fox says most of its stations will also carry the Wrigley game. On Rogers Digital in Ottawa, we just get the Detroit and Seattle Fox channels (not Buffalo any more, unfortunately). Of course, FX is not available in Canada. I'm getting concerned the Yankees game won't be televised in Ottawa. I get all of Rogers' sports programming and my cable bill is over $100/month.

I'll probably listen to the game on the Red Sox radio broadcast (as ESPN Radio says it's not allowed to broadcast on the Internet, and I don't think I can get good reception of an over-the-air broadcast).
_A - Tuesday, October 07 2003 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#88799) #
Alex Gonzalez ties up the game with his 2nd HR in as many games. Did hell freeze over?
_MR. OCTOBER - Tuesday, October 07 2003 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#88800) #
So much for Moneyball?

The A's have a great grasp of how to win games during the season. They do it better than anyone when you factor in their budget.

So, what do they do when they get to the post season...Start bunting and stealing, giving away precious outs.

Go figure?

MR. OCTOBER
_MR. OCTOBER - Tuesday, October 07 2003 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#88801) #
Sorry, did not mean to change the subject!
_A - Tuesday, October 07 2003 @ 11:25 PM EDT (#88802) #
Tie game! Sammy Sosa goes deep on Urbina, breaking out of a 1-11 lifetime slump against him.

They're going to the top of the 10th
Mike D - Tuesday, October 07 2003 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#88803) #
Un-be-lievable. What a postseason!
_gid - Tuesday, October 07 2003 @ 11:36 PM EDT (#88804) #
Urbina is pitching in the 9th, Marlins ahead 8-6. Al Leiter (3rd announcer) commenting on a pitch to Grudzielanek: "The only reason he didn't swing at that was that he was looking for a fastball. If Urbina throws another one like that, it's going to get hit hard." The pitch was a slider that didn't break much. Next batter is Sammy Sosa. Sure enough, Urbina throws another one. Sosa blasts it into the crowd in the street past the left field bleachers. Game tied, 8-8, end of 9th.
_A - Tuesday, October 07 2003 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#88805) #
MIKE LOWELL, OFF THE BENCH PUTS THE MARLINS AHEAD...does it get better than this??
_A - Tuesday, October 07 2003 @ 11:59 PM EDT (#88806) #
After Lowell's jack in the top of the 10th, the Cubs got intro trouble but snuck out only down by the lone run thanks to a kindly placed line drive that played into an inning-ending double play.

Another last chance.
_A - Wednesday, October 08 2003 @ 12:05 AM EDT (#88807) #
The fun and games had to end sometime. Looper comes in and nails down the win in a convincing 1-2-3 fashion...The Marlins take game 1.
robertdudek - Wednesday, October 08 2003 @ 12:12 AM EDT (#88808) #
I'm glad the Marlins won today because it means we have a competitive series on our hands. I wouldn't have figured Beckett to give up 6 runs. Where was his curveball?

I love Pudge's intensity - shaking his glove to set a target that last inning.

Sloppily played game at times, but lots of drama, and a few great plays (Alex Florida Gonzalez's play to get the force at second was one of the best I've seen).
_S.K. - Wednesday, October 08 2003 @ 12:26 AM EDT (#88809) #
I've been really impressed with I-Rod in these playoffs - not his talent, which is a given, but his passion and leadership. This really seems to be his team, at times. Not looking at all like a guy playing for a paycheque.
Leigh - Wednesday, October 08 2003 @ 12:59 AM EDT (#88810) #
Back to what StephenT was saying: are we going to get the sox/yankees game? As if his purse-string shit with the jays was not enough, Ted Rogers could make it onto my enemies list if I don't see the alcs game tomorrow night.
Leigh - Wednesday, October 08 2003 @ 12:59 AM EDT (#88811) #
Back to what StephenT was saying: are we going to get the sox/yankees game? As if his purse-string stuff with the jays was not enough, Ted Rogers could make it onto my enemies list if I don't see the alcs game tomorrow night.
Leigh - Wednesday, October 08 2003 @ 01:01 AM EDT (#88812) #
Sorry about this repeat posts [although I am sure that this apology post only compounds the problem], I hit the stop button on Explorer to try to keep the first one from being posted because I realized at the last moment that it had some questionable language. Although that may be against policy, please do not ban my IP for use of the "s" word; I love the box.
robertdudek - Wednesday, October 08 2003 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#88813) #
Al Leiter was brilliant as a colour man yesterday. They should dump Lyons immediately and let Leiter do it alone. I think it's a good idea to get a player who played in the current year against the teams we're watching - he has access to current information that a retired player doesn't.

It sounds like Leiter would make an excellent pitching coach after he retires.
Craig B - Wednesday, October 08 2003 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#88814) #
Leigh, I don't mind the profanity too much, provided it's used in some moderation. You won't get banned for it.

Beckett's breaking pitches weren't breaking, as Robert pointed out, and I wonder if he might have a blister or finger injury or something that's preventing him from snapping off the curve.
_Steve Birnie - Wednesday, October 08 2003 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#88815) #
I completely agree with Robert about Leiter's work. When they introduced him at the beginning of the game, I cringed since three man booths are usually annoying. Besides, I despise the traitorous &@$+@^(

But as the game went on, Leiter won me over. Especially when he was commenting on what the pitcher's were trying to do, or what pitches the were throwing. There were a couple of times when he and Lyons contradicted each other about types of pitches, or pitch location. And Leiter was always right.

By the way, funny how Craig brings up blisters right after Robert mentions Leiter.
_Chuck Van Den C - Wednesday, October 08 2003 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#88816) #
I despise the traitorous &@$+@^

By traitorous you mean electing to accept a contract from one organization after having faithfully honoured a (now expired) contract from another organization?

It wasn't philanthropy or charity that motivated the Jays to stick with Leiter through his blister woes. It was the potential payoff, which they got when he pitched well in 1995. Afterwards, they were certainly free to challenge Florida to retain him but chose not to.

Had the Jays elected to dump Leiter at any point, any number of other organizations would have scooped him up given his potential.
_Steve Birnie - Wednesday, October 08 2003 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#88817) #
I agree the Jays weren't being charitable with Leiter, though I think the main reason the Jays stuck with Leiter was because they had traded a very popular player (Barfield) to get him, and felt they had to get something out of Al in order to save face.

That being said, though, the Jays DID make an extensive effort to preserve Leiter's chance at a productive big league career. IIRC, he not only had the blister problem, but also suffered a fairly significant arm injury during that time. The time, money and expertise the Jays invested (whatever their motivations) have a great deal to do with why he has had ten successful big league seasons. Considering the disarray the Yankee organization was in at that time, had he stayed there he might have been out of pro ball by 92.

Given all that, I just think Leiter should have shown a certain amount of loyalty to the Jays, rather than bolt for the big money and prizes in Florida. Maybe the motivations behind the effort and investment the Jays put into Al can be viewed a bit cynically, but it was still to his enormous benefit. In the end, the Jays made a significant investment in an asset, only to have that asset yield it's highest return for other organizations, through no fault of their own. And that's what ticks me off.
_Chuck Van Den C - Wednesday, October 08 2003 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#88818) #
the Jays DID make an extensive effort to preserve Leiter's chance at a productive big league career.

I don't exactly agree. You are wording things to make the Jays sound overly magnanimous.

The Jays made a business decision. They decided that the cost of giving Leiter the opportunity to overcome his physical ailments was worth the potential pay off of him pitching well for them while they had him under contract. It was certainly not a "productive big league career" that was on their minds.

And had the Jays not elected to stick with Leiter, any number of other organizations certainly would have given him the same opportunity.

The Jays made a business decision to invest in Leiter. It was not personal. He honoured his contracts with them. When he became a free agent, he accepted a contract with someone else. It wasn't personal.

In the end, the Jays made a significant investment in an asset, only to have that asset yield it's highest return for other organizations, through no fault of their own.

Yeah, and that happens all the time in sports and in real life. You make investments. Some pay off, some don't. Sometimes you pay Drew Henson millions of dollars. Sometimes you draft Mike Piazza in the 183rd round.
National League Championship Series: Tuesday, October 7th, 2003 | 22 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.