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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, 8 PM ET (Game 2)

The Yankees have scored only 18 runs in 5 post-season games, which is almost 2 runs less per game than their regular season rate. Of course you don't face the likes of Tampa Bay and Texas in the post-season so a drop off should be expected. The Red Sox have experienced a similar drop off, but have faced a more impressive assortment of pitchers in their 6 post-season games.

I'm not worried about the linedrive hitters - Jeter, Bernie and Nick Johnson. Posada and Giambi are more of a concern - hitters who depend on the walk and the deep fly. Collectively, they have 8 hits in 40 AB, with 4 doubles, 3 walks and 13 strikeouts. Derek Lowe is fairly good at preventing walks and homerunss, and it's especially difficult to hit homeruns off Pedro. With mediocre offensive players Juan Rivera (I'd love to see them start Sierra) and Aaron Boone at the bottom of the lineup, the offence doesn't look all that great when Jorge and Jason are making outs.



Andy Pettitte is a little bit of a mystery to me. When I watch him, I often think: "this guy has the stuff to be one of the 5 best pitchers in the American League". He always seems to lose a little of his command at the wrong time or has games when he gets torched. He entered the Yankees rotation as a 23-year old and made a seamless adjustment to the big leagues. His year-end numbers have been consistent throughout his career - but they've never been awesome.

Andy Pettitte
YearIPWalksStrikeoutsBFK rateW rateAge3-year K3-year W
1995175.06311474515.48.123   
1996221.07216292917.57.624   
1997240.365166986 16.86.625 16.67.4
1998216.387146932 15.79.326 16.77.8
1999191.789121851 14.310.227 15.78.6
2000204.780125 90313.98.528 14.69.3
2001200.741164 85819.24.529 15.8 7.7
2002134.73297 57017.15.33016.66.2
2003208.350 18089620.25.331 19.05.0

After Pettitte's massive workload in 1997, he suffered a decline in his strikeout rate. It looked like he might be on the finesse lefty career path. The arrival of Roger Clemens in New York signalled a return to higher strikeout rates for Pettitte. Whether it was Roger's influence, arm recovery, or something else, his strikeout rate has climbed to a career best in 2003 of just over 20% (one of the highest rates among American League starting pitchers).

There's been some talk that Andy Pettitte will be cut loose by the Yankees after this post-season. I find this hard to believe, but if he bombs against the Red Sox and George gets angry we ought to entertain this as a possibility. I think Pettitte has about 6 very good years left in him, and he should get up to the 260-275 wins range by the time he calls it a day. That would make him an interesting Hall of Fame candidate, but having great offensive and bullpen support has boosted his win total and I'm not sure the next generation of sportswriters will be able to account for it.

Probable Pitchers
ThursdayBOSDerek LoweatNYYAndy Pettitte8 ET
       
Wednesday FLABrad Pennyat CHIMark Prior12-3 CHI
 BOSTim WakefieldatNYYMike Mussina5-2 BOS
TuesdayFLA Josh BeckettatCHICarlos Zambrano9-8 FLA

 


2003 Playoff Series
New York Yankees
versus
Minnesota Twins
NY wins 3-1
...........| |...........
Atlanta Braves
versus
Chicago Cubs
CHI wins 3-2
 
New York Yankees
versus
Boston Red Sox
Bos leads 1-0
 
Chicago Cubs
versus
Florida Marlins
tied 1-1
 
Oakland Athletics
versus
Boston Red Sox
Bos wins 3-2
...........| |...........
San Francisco Giants
versus
Florida Marlins
FLA wins 3-1
American League Championship Series: Thursday, October 9th, 2003 | 31 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Coach - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#88675) #
This must-win for the Yankees comes against a pitcher they can handle. They hit .317 in four starts against Derek Lowe this year. Though he did go 2-0, his ERA was a modest 5.55 and his career numbers against the Bombers are .303, 6-7 and 5.22, so don't expect a shutout. In addition to the line-drive hitters Robert mentions, Hideki Matsui is 6-for-11 with 6 RBI in his limited exposure to the sinkerballer.

Pettitte must keep surprise leadoff man Gabe Kapler and Bill Mueller off the bases, because the next three hitters -- Nomar Garciaparra (10-for-26, 1.005 OPS), Manny Ramirez (16-for-41, 1.044) and (surprisingly?) David Ortiz (9-for-22, 1.140) -- have all hit the lefty well over the years. Andy sure rose to the occasion in his latest, fanning ten Twins in perhaps his best start since July 6, when he shut down these Red Sox, in this Stadium, with eight innings of four-hitter and another ten strikeouts.

I'm rooting for the Sox, and I think they do have a chance to win tonight if Lowe is at his very best, but I expect this series to be all even going into Saturday afternoon's clash of the titans.
Coach - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#88676) #
What was Mueller thinking? With Kapler running, he has two choices on that pitch -- foul it off, or hit it to right field. Instead, he took strike three into an easy double play and ruined a potential big inning.
_Shrike - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#88677) #
Despite the Red Sox not scoring in the first inning despite three hits and a walk, they are demonstrating an approach that will win them the game, if Pettite doesn't find his command: run up his pitch count and get into the soft Yankee bullpen.
Coach - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#88678) #
Ortiz really sees the ball well off Pettitte. He just stared at three staight low ones after falling behind 1-2, loading the bases for Millar, who popped up to end the inning. Thanks to Mueller's brain cramp on a full-count pitch that was way too close to take, Boston comes up empty despite three singles and a walk.
robertdudek - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#88679) #
It was just plain stupid to have Kapler running.
_A - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#88680) #
I really enjoyed the replay of Bernie Williams making contact on the ground ball to end the Yankee's first. It showed a couple of things, first, he opened up and looked like he was trying to pull the ball even though it was low and away, and secondly you could see that he was making contact with the ball late, in foul territory. The result was no shock, a routine grounder to the left side.
_A - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#88681) #
It was just plain stupid to have Kapler running.
It doesn't make any sense to run on the tandom of Pettitte and Posada unless you're in a 3-2-2 situtation. Pettitte's move allows for the stingiest of leads and Posada is more than capable of getting the ball down there, especially without the pressure of having to make up for a pitcher with a bad delivery.
Coach - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#88682) #
It was just plain stupid to have Kapler running.

At the risk of sounding like I'm defending Grady Little, who I've wanted fired this week for his moronic bullpen management and have ridiculed all season for admitting he lets his "visions" decide his strategy, he sent Kapler because he thought he had a guy with a good eye and good bat control at the plate.

Three more hits off a very ordinary Pettitte, and Boston scores first, but it should be 3-0 or 4-0 instead of 1-0. Bad call or bad execution, they blew it, and these squandered opportunities may come back to haunt them.
Coach - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#88683) #
Ever notice the resemblance between Nick Johnson and G.H. Ruth?
_A - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#88684) #
No.
robertdudek - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#88685) #
If the guy has a good eye, you've got a good chance to get a walk. Mueller can hit and the heart of the order was coming up - no need to give the opposition outs.

Suppose Mueller hits a linedrive at an infielder - that's a DP as well. Sure there's a risk of the conventional DP if you don't run, but not enough to offset the things that can go wrong when you hit and run.

I think the hit and run is only a good idea when you have someone like Juan Pierre up - someone who doesn't walk or strikeout much and keeps the ball on the ground. You can H+R against a pitcher who doesn't strike out many guys, which was not the case here.

There's a reason Earl Weaver excommunicated the hit and run from the playbook. The Sox are an Earl Weaver team.
Pepper Moffatt - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#88686) #
http://economics.about.com
Weaver used a modified version of the Hit and Run a fair deal which he called the Run and Hit.
robertdudek - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#88687) #
Mike,

The run and hit is a completely different play. That requires the runner to be a competent base stealer, not Gabe Kapler against Andy Pettitte.
Pepper Moffatt - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#88688) #
http://economics.about.com
Kapler is a pretty good base stealer (74% success rate), though he doesn't do a ton of it (career high of 23).

Posada is only throwing out 28% of base runners this year. Basestealers are 13 out of 14 against Pettitte this year. With Mueller up, I don't think a Run and Hit is a bad idea. Kind of early in the game, though.

Of course, they were doing the more traditional Hit and Run, which is a bit different.
robertdudek - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#88689) #
But Pettitte is awfully good at picking guys off.

Unless I have Rickey Henderson or Tim Raines, or the pitcher is easy to run on, I never send a runner with no out and my #2 hitter up.
_gid - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#88690) #

Ever notice the resemblance between Nick Johnson and G.H. Ruth?


Yeah. It took a couple weeks of watching the regular season Fox Saturday Afternoon Yankee And/Or Mets Game (or "game of the week", whatever they call it) to realize who Johnson was reminding me of.

Bottom of the 3rd, Giambi at bat. It looks like Lowe throws two consecutive fastballs moving left to right out over the plate. Giambi gets under the first one and fouls it off, but hits the second one squarely into the outfield. Big mistake by Lowe. Before the game Bret Boone said something like "Lowe only throws sinkers", but McCarver cleared him up on that. Lowe's been throwing a lot of fastballs.
Coach - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#88691) #
Thanks, gid. So many Ruth photos were from when he was older and considerably heavier, but at a similar age, the Stick looks even more like the Bambino. The pinstripes and high socks enhance the effect, and when Nick gets a cookie down the middle, he knows what to do with it. I can't think of anyone better to "enforce" the Curse, if you believe in that sort of thing, which I don't. If Johnson takes Pedro deep to win Game Seven, I might change my mind.
_Donkit R.K. - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#88692) #
I think Giambi and Karim Garcia resemble each other... BTW, 4-1 Yanks now.
Coach - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#88693) #
Contreras vs. Garciaparra could be interesting...
Coach - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#88694) #
... or not.

Does Torre leave Contreras in, or ask Rivera for two innings?
Dave Till - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#88695) #
I want Mariano Rivera to get clobbered, just to shut the @#$@ announcers up. They've been going on and on about how great he is. I agree, but jeez, already.
robertdudek - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#88696) #
I loved how the Buck-McCarver immediately started making excuses for Jeter when he looked awful on two grounders yesterday. I wonder how many people in New York are aware that Jeter is a mediocre defensive shortstop. The more the better - I hope Jeter plays short for the Yankees the rest of his career.
Coach - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#88697) #
Sauerbeck, who didn't pitch at all against Oakland, just showed why. Two-run double, wild pitch, walk. So much for having to use Rivera.
Coach - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#88698) #
Contreras has absolutely great stuff. Hard to say whether he'll ever be "worth" $32 million, because he still hasn't put it all together, but he's the kind of speculative investment the Yankees can afford to make.
_Jacko - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#88699) #

I think Giambi and Karim Garcia resemble each other... BTW, 4-1 Yanks now


Aaron Boone = skinny G
Karim Garcia = fat G
Coach - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#88700) #
The Fox crew is fanning the fire for a beanball war on Saturday. Pictures of the game when Pedro hit Soriano and Jeter, including the gratuitous ambulance shot, graphics about total HBP, plenty of chatter. MLB should send Steve Palermo and Phil Cuzzi to Boston right away to protect these teams from themselves.
_A - Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#88701) #
$32 Million was spent on Contreras for this exact situation: Yankee-Red Sox ALCS. If the Yankees hadn't signed him, Boston would have.
Gitz - Friday, October 10 2003 @ 12:21 AM EDT (#88702) #
I am now also rooting for a tie in this series.

While I am generally against many of the toys of modern technology, one thing I am immeasurably grateful for is the command on my remote control that goes by the humble name of "MUTE."
_Shrike - Friday, October 10 2003 @ 03:49 AM EDT (#88703) #
Ah, blessed silence.

I much enjoyed watching some hockey a while back where the on-air personnel were on strike. No commentary=no problem!
_Donkit R.K. - Friday, October 10 2003 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#88704) #
I also think Pettite and Posada look alike.
_blindman - Friday, October 10 2003 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#88705) #
I thnk Uma Thurman looks like Joe Torre with T$ts
American League Championship Series: Thursday, October 9th, 2003 | 31 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.