Chicago Cubs at Florida Marlins, 8 PM ET (Game 3)
If there's a game in the playoffs where its okay to get blown out - it's a Game 2 facing Mark Prior. The Fish were a long shot going into the game and after Brad Penny got torched, there wasn't much anyone in the Florida clubhouse could have done.
Mark Redman will need the support of the crowd and the park behind him to succeed tonight - the Cubs hit lefties well (see Division Series entries with Mike Hampton starting for Atlanta for details). The Marlins offence isn't built upon the walk - a good weapon to have against the occasionally wild Wood. They'll have to make the most of their baserunners tonight.
Florida needs to take 2 of 3 over this weekend in their backyard. Even in that scenario, Chicago will be able to pitch Prior and Wood in Games 6 and 7. Chicago favoured to win tonight: 57% to 43%.
| Player | PA | RunsProduced rate | Adjusted RunsProduced | Adjusted BaseRuns | BaseRuns per PA | OBP | SLG |
| Juan Pierre | 31 | .329 | 5.15 | 1.96 | .063 | .258 | .310 |
| Luis Castillo | 30 | .140 | 2.01 | 4.71 | .157 | .433 | .480 |
| Ivan Rodriguez | 29 | .578 | 8.13 | 6.03 | .208 | .448 | .640 |
| Derrek Lee | 29 | .223 | 3.15 | 3.91 | .135 | .345 | .400 |
| Juan Encarnacion | 27 | .157 | 2.09 | 3.23 | .120 | .269 | .500 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 26 | .362 | 4.72 | 4.79 | .184 | .360 | .667 |
| Jeff Conine | 26 | .213 | 2.67 | 3.84 | .148 | .423 | .500 |
| Alex Gonzalez | 24 | .083 | 1.02 | -0.67 | -.028 | .083 | .043 |
| others | 31 | .196 | 3.06 | 4.20 | .135 | .333 | .517 |
| Team | 253 | .255 | 32 | 32 | .126 | .332 | .451 |
notes: RunsProduced Rate is (Runs/PA)+(RBI/AB); Adjusted Runs Produced is RP rate scaled to actual team runs; Adjusted BaseRuns is base runs plus outs saved/consumed, scaled to actual team runs; BaseRuns per PA is adjusted BaseRuns per plate appearance.
Adjusted Runs Produced and Adjusted Base Runs don't agree on the impact of the first three batters in the order. Juan Pierre has scored a lot of runs in proportion to the number of times he's reached base. The opposite can be said of Luis Castillo. Ivan Rodriguez has been the most productive hitter in the lineup, according to both methods.
You may have noticed that Alex Gonzalez has a negative Adjusted Base Runs total. This arises because Base Runs are adjusted for outs saved/consumed in relation to the team. Because Gonzalez has an outs rate of 94% (very high) he has taken away opportunites, and therefore runs, from his teammates. Also notable is the exceptional performance of the substitutes, pinch-hitters and pitchers in the others category.
| Player | PA | RunsProduced rate | Adjusted RunsProduced | Adjusted BaseRuns | BaseRuns per PA | OBP | SLG |
| Kenny Lofton | 34 | .276 | 4.40 | 4.65 | .137 | .424 | .433 |
| M Grudzielanek | 33 | .188 | 2.94 | 2.83 | .086 | .303 | .333 |
| Sammy Sosa | 32 | .333 | 4.64 | 5.54 | .173 | .406 | .500 |
| Moises Alou | 30 | .312 | 4.50 | 5.09 | .170 | .433 | .536 |
| Aramis Ramirez | 30 | .281 | 3.99 | 4.92 | .164 | .333 | .593 |
| Alex Gonzalez | 23 | .551 | 6.03 | 6.71 | .292 | .435 | 1.000 |
| Eric Karros | 17 | .353 | 2.99 | 4.02 | .236 | .412 | .765 |
| Randall Simon | 16 | .438 | 3.48 | 2.78 | .174 | .438 | .625 |
| Damian Miller | 16 | .071 | 0.53 | 1.12 | .070 | .250 | .286 |
| Paul Bako | 14 | .396 | 2.46 | 1.47 | .105 | .357 | .273 |
| others | 32 | .196 | 3.02 | -0.15 | -.005 | .097 | .167 |
| Team | 277 | .298 | 39 | 39 | .141 | .349 | .492 |
notes: RunsProduced Rate is (Runs/PA)+(RBI/AB); Adjusted Runs Produced is RP rate scaled to actual team runs; Adjusted BaseRuns is base runs plus outs saved/consumed, scaled to actual team runs; BaseRuns per PA is adjusted BaseRuns per plate appearance.
The Base Runs formula says the Marlins should have scored 33.16 runs - they have fallen a little short of that (32 runs scored). The Cubs' Base Runs projection is almost spot on - a predicted 39.10 as compared to 39 actual runs scored. Alex Gonzalez and Eric Karros have been their most efficient hitters.
| Friday | CHI | Kerry Wood | at | FLA | Mark Redman | 8 PM |
| Thursday | BOS | Derek Lowe | at | NYY | Andy Pettitte | 6-2 NYY |
| Wednesday | FLA | Brad Penny | at | CHI | Mark Prior | 12-3 CHI |
| BOS | Tim Wakefield | at | NYY | Mike Mussina | 5-2 BOS | |
| Tuesday | FLA | Josh Beckett | at | CHI | Carlos Zambrano | 9-8 FLA |
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https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20031010080137999