The 2003 Auburn Doubledays finished the short-season New York-Penn League schedule with a 56-18 record. To put that in perspective, a similar winning percentage (.756) for the Toronto Blue Jays would give them a 122-40 record. In other words, yeah, Auburn was pretty good this year.
The record-setting performance of the Jays’ NYP club is due largely to the efforts of the 2003 draft class, many of whom were senior collegians whom the club considered its better prospects (lower-regarded youngsters often start in Pulaski). Not all the Doubledays finished the season in the NY-Penn: first-round draft pick Aaron Hill and ninth-round pitcher Jamie Vermilyea got the call to Dunedin when it became clear they were simply too much for the competition. But of those who did finish the season, the most interesting of them (16 in all) are listed here (there are more who deserve some consideration, but time just won’t allow it).
I’ll repeat here some of what I said yesterday about Low-A Ball: try not to read too much into these stats. Although the NYP presents a clearer picture of its players’ performances through their stat lines, still we’re talking about the second-lowest rung on the North American minor-league ladder. A lot can and will happen between here and the Florida State League, the first real proving ground for almost every Jays prospect. And that doesn’t even include the possibility – no, the virtual certainty – that some young arms will be lost to injury.
Keep in mind also that in 2003, NYP batters averaged a .245/.325/.348 line, the lowest in organized baseball (a .701 REqA; just behind, with a .702 mark, was none other than the Florida State League). So raise your amazement thresholds for the pitchers, and lower them slightly for the hitters, especially those who weren’t substantially older than the league-average age of 21.4 years (thanks to BB reader Andy Martin for this stat; and while I’m at it, thanks to Robert Dudek for his exemplary work on average age and more in all the minor leagues).
With all that in mind, here we go:
Josh Banks, RHP, 21
7-2, 2.43, 15 GS, 66 IP, 58 H, 10 BB, 81 K, 1 HR, 30.6% KBF
Here’s what Josh Banks did in the last 6 starts of the season: 27 IP, 16 H, 4 BB, 35 K. I bring this up to make a point about his stamina. His final short-season total, 66 IP, was more than he’d amassed in either of his first two years at Florida International, where he was both a starter and a reliever (he saved 5 games in 2001 and 2002). More importantly, in 2003 he was a starter almost full-time, and threw 105 IP in college before bringing his season’s total to 171 with Auburn. If he was running out of gas as he pitched his final 30 innings, it sure wasn’t evident.
Now, I’m as cautious as the next guy about overworking a young arm (so long as the next guy isn’t Jeff Torborg), and Banks had some blister problems in college that may have cost him a first-round draft slot. So needless to say, you don’t want to overwork him. But Banks is a remarkably efficient pitcher, and the Jays are extremely cautious about workload; all the young starters saw their outings shortened towards the end of the season. But none of those arms are as potentially valuable as Banks’. He’s a healthy 21 and is building strength as he goes; he’s a tall, whiplike figure at the moment (6’3”, 195) and he’ll probably add a little muscle to that frame yet. He throws in the 90-94 range with a sharp slider and a mid-80s splitter, all of which he can pinpoint for strikes; his change is coming along nicely too. The MLB Scouting Bureau drew comparisons with Bret Saberhagen; to me, he more closely resembles the last pitcher the Jays chose in the second round of the draft: David Bush. Watch for him in Dunedin and maybe even Manchester next season: Banks is coming, and fast.
Bubbie Buzachero, RHP, 22
1-1, 13 Sv, 1.54, 30 G, 0 GS, 35 IP, 25 H, 7 BB, 47 K, 1 HR, 34.5% KBF
For someone with such an unforgettable name, Buzachero seems to be flying below the organizational radar a little bit. This was his second pro season; he debuted with Medicine Hat last year and though he recorded a lot of strikeouts, his command was negligible (25 BB and 10 WP in 40 IP). But in 2003, he found his control, and everything else fell into place. His final numbers were as strong as any Auburn reliever except Jamie Vermilyea. Bubbie has a live fastball and a very tight, hard curveball; since that appears to be the extent of his repertoire, he’s probably looking at a career in the bullpen. He’s a small guy: 5’11”, 180 lbs, which makes me think of another shortish righty with a great curve, Tom Gordon. Bubbie reportedly has had some questions surrounding his maturity, however, and that may be holding him back; but if he’s controlled his behaviour like he now controls his pitches, he should be fine going forward. He turned 22 in June, so it’s time this little doggie got along. Dunedin seems reasonable for 2004, though Charleston is also a possibility.
Vito Chiaravalloti, 1B, 22
228 AB, .351/.469/.605, 47 R, 29 2B, 1 3B, 12 HR, 67 RBI, 47 BB, 48 K
What’s there left to say? The remarkable debut of Vito Chiaravalloti has been discussed repeatedly here at Batter’s Box and elsewhere. After tearing up college pitching his first two full years at the University of Richmond (to the tune of .328/.459/.672 in 2001 and .357/.465/.727 in 2002), he slumped to .306/.398/.528 as a senior in 2003 (possibly because of an injury, though I haven’t been able to confirm it). Toronto chose him in the 15th round and he responded by taking home the NY-Penn League’s Triple Crown.
The positives: Vito is big (6’3”, 220 lbs) and powerful, yet has quick hands and a compact stroke. He’s an excellent athlete (a former all-state swimmer) who showed leadership abilities (he captained his college baseball team). He’s also a smart, highly disciplined, opposite-field slugger. Check out these quotes from an article about Vito in The Jersey Journal (thanks to Repoz from Baseball Primer for the link):
“I made a lot of adjustments through the year and I did so very quickly, and that's what helped me. One of the biggest adjustments was just staying within myself and not trying to do too much. With the wooden bat, I tried to use the right side of the field and the middle of the field and not pull everything. That's my style; patience at the plate. Getting the right pitch to hit is very important. I was making sure I didn't give my at-bats away. I focused each day, even when I was tired. I focused every time I was at-bat and was ready to take my walks when they came. Sometimes the first pitch is the one you need to drive, but when you're hitting in the 3-4-or-5-spot, the pitcher is trying to get you to hit the pitch he wants. Working the pitcher is very important. The more pitches he throws, the more mistakes he's liable to make."
You could cut-and-paste that into an organizational textbook for how to be a great hitter.
The negatives? Despite his athleticism, Vito is not considered gifted defensively, and projects as an adequate first baseman at best. He’s vulnerable to hard inside stuff (then again, so are many sluggers) and was kind of old for his league. Dominating short-season A-Ball, even in a pitchers’ league like the NYP, isn’t the same as ripping it up at Dunedin or even Charleston; everyone remembers Jason Perry, who posted a 1.300 OPS in Rookie Ball last year (but that was, keep in mind, an important half-level below the NYP). And while the Triple Crown sure is nice, the last Jays prospect to achieve it was Greg Morrison of the 1997 Medicine Hat Blue Jays. I’m sure you remember him.
So there you have it, the positives and negatives. Which will win? Put me in the positives camp. Vito is strong, disciplined, and has a quick bat; you can’t ask for three better characteristics in a hitter than that, at any level. He’ll almost certainly start 2004 at Dunedin, and as we know, the Florida State League is the first real test for a hitter, one that Jason Perry struggled with. Vito will not post a 1.074 OPS at Dunedin, but watch him closely: check his BB/K rate and his isolated power. The FSL is his first professional exam; if he passes with honours, then you can start taking Vito very seriously as a batting prospect. I think he’ll impress and surprise a lot of people.
Carlo Cota, 2B/3B, 23
169 AB, .320/.416/.521, 31 R, 13 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 34 RBI, 27 BB, 45 K, 3 SB, 2 CS
If not for Vito Chiaravalloti, the biggest bat on the Auburn Doubledays would have belonged to a player you might not have heard of: Carlo Cota. The compact infielder showed excellent strike-zone judgment and unprecedented power (5 HRs this year at Auburn, compared with 5 total round-trippers in his three years in college), though with more K’s than you’d necessarily like to see (one every four ABs). Cota’s name might lead you to think he was a free-agent signing from Latin America, but in fact he was an outstanding scholar-athlete with a degree in international business who was regarded as one of the leaders of a San Diego State team coached by Tony Gwynn. Cota was a long-shot pick (taken 33rd in the 2002 draft) and had a decent debut last year at Medicine Hat.
Now, consider these two key caveats: this is his second year in Rookie Ball, and he was 23 by season’s end (or, put differently, only a year younger than Dominic Rich). So perhaps needless to say, Carlo needs to get out of short-season ball and start producing at the Low- or High-A level before he can be considered a prospect. But he seems like a good, smart guy, and I’m hoping he can perform well at a higher level. If he has a future position, I think it’ll be second base.
Mike Galloway, OF, 22
172 AB, .302/.379./.477, 36 R, 12 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 33 RBI, 20 BB, 47 K, 3 SB, 1 CS
We like to ensure that there’s always one Canadian on these lists somewhere. A proud graduate of Elgin Central High in St. Thomas, Ontario, Galloway played at Central Michigan before transferring to Miami of Ohio for his senior year. The change must’ve done him good: he led the Mid-American Conference with a .422 average and a .722 slugging percentage his final year, which was enough to get the Jays’ attention; they took him in the 14th round in 2002. He struggled in his rookie league debut with Medicine Hat, but played well in his second go-round this year.
Galloway plays outfield, but he was an infielder in college, playing first, third and catcher; you might guess that’s he not a particularly fleet-footed outfielder. His game is power and aggressiveness: he appears to be a gung-ho type, popular with fans who like the hoo-wah type of personality. He cranked out 15 homers his final year at Miami, but the Jays are still waiting to see that power in the pros, and all those strikeouts just point up his lack of serious pop all the more. Mike turned 22 in May, so the clock is ticking a little; but the organization also loaned him out to Dunedin and Syracuse a couple of times this year, so they’re at least paying attention to him. He figures to be in the Charleston outfield in 2004, and though he needs to show more power, that’s normally hard to come by in the Sally. Next year looks like a key season for Galloway.
Jeremy Harper, RHP, 22
5-1, 3.79, 19 G, 1 GS, 40 IP, 28 H, 18 BB, 36 K, 2 HR, 21.6% KBF
One round after the Jays selected Navy lefty Matt Foster (who made a cameo appearance at Pulaski before heading off to begin his military commitment; expect him back full-time in 2005), they dipped right back into the armed forces and came up with Jeremy Harper from the Virginia Military Institute (VMI), a school reportedly surpassed in its toughness and discipline only by the Citadel (Texas’ Ryan Glynn is an alumnus). Harper throws in the low 90s with a pretty good curve and change-up. His numbers at college and in the pros remind me a little of Chad Pleiness: few hits allowed, but an inordinate number of walks and not as many strikeouts as you’d like. Considering Chad’s struggles this season at Dunedin, Harper (who, like Pleiness, was also a standout basketball player) might be in for more of the same in 2004. But like Foster, I don’t anticipate Harper having any problems adjusting to life in the low minors. After VMI, the overnight bus rides and the cramped motels will probably seem like Park Avenue.
Kurt Isenberg, LHP, 21
7-2, 1.63, 13 GS, 60 IP, 40 H, 19 BB, 57 K, 1 HR, 23.3% KBF
Here’s Exhibit A for the argument that stats alone can’t tell you everything. In his final year at James Madison, Kurt Isenberg posted this lofty line: 8-8, 5.85, 97 IP, 116 H, 42 BB, 97 K, 7 HR, 10 WP. The second coming of Tanyon Sturtze, you say. But Jays scouts saw something they liked — I’ll bet the 1/1 K/IP ratio didn’t hurt – and grabbed him with a 4th-round 2003 pick that some people thought was an overdraft. But the team improved his delivery and polished his curveball, bringing it from a minus to a plus that complemented his 90-mph moving fastball and a decent change-up. The result: the lowest ERA in the New York-Penn League. He’ll be 22 next season, so there’s a very good chance he could start the year in Dunedin; but considering how crowded that rotation appears to be, Kurt could well start off in the Sally. His overall numbers were excellent, though not overwhelming in the BB/IP department, so you might want to consider him a half-step behind Banks right now. But he’s still young and he’s a lefty, and I think there’s something special here. If he can trade 10 walks for 10 Ks next year, watch out.
Justin James, RHP, 22
2-1, 3.20, 13 G, 8 GS, 39 IP, 34 H, 11 BB, 42 K, 2 HR, 26.4% KBF
A teammate of Jayce Tingler at the University of Missouri, James almost didn’t make it to college: coming out of high school, he was chosen by the Red Sox in the 6th round of the 2001 draft. But he demurred and went to college, where the Jays snagged him in the 5th round this past June as a sophomore. As a result, he’s a little younger than some of the collegians at Auburn (he was 21 most of the year), which bodes well. James is, in some ways, the archetypal Blue Jays pitching draft choice. His stuff isn’t overpowering: a fastball that hangs around 90, but with a fine curveball and a solid change-up; and at 6’3”, 215 lbs, he might yet add some mph on the heater. More importantly, he throws strikes: in his final year at Mizzou, his BB/K rate was 26/92 in 114 innings. When he was drafted, a lot of observers thought the Jays had gotten themselves a steal, and though James started slowly, he really came on strong later in the season: his final numbers are a little deceiving in that regard. He finished the year in the rotation, so that will probably be his role when 2004 begins. I would suggest a start in Charleston, but I have a feeling he could move up in a real hurry. If there’s a rotation sleeper from the ’03 draft, he’s it.
Erik Kratz, C, 23
157 AB, .312/.411/.503, 25 R, 15 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 26 RBI, 21 BB, 31 K
One of the great things about doing these reports is that I find something new and cool in almost every edition. Today’s vehicle for discovery is Erik Kratz, a 2002 29th-round draft choice who spent most of this year splitting catching duties for the Doubledays. Kratz is unusually big for a catcher: at 6’4”, 240 lbs, he’s a cement block behind the plate. By way of comparison, Josh Phelps is 6’3”, 220. History shows us that big men don’t stay behind the plate very long, and indeed, Kratz played several games at first base this year. Probably better for his body, but not so good for his pro chances: those numbers are very good for a backstop but barely adequate for a first sacker, especially one who turned 23 in June. Erik does have some big numbers on his CV, however: in his final year at college, he batted .507 with 14 HRs and 59 RBIs.
Now before you start sputtering, note that Kratz played for Eastern Mennonite University in the Old Dominion Athletic Conference – not exactly the Big 10. But EMU itself is the pretty cool part: it’s a tiny Virginia college with fewer than 1,500 students in a town of 40,000. It offers master’s degrees in conflict transformation and hosts the Annual Shenandoah Valley Bach Festival. It’s seriously Mennonite, offering numerous MAs in divinity and church leadership, and overall, they’re a quietly iconoclastic bunch. I like ‘em. Kratz is their first baseball player to turn pro, though not their first pro baseball alumnus: Larry Sheets attended EMU on a basketball scholarship. So there you go: Erik Kratz, 23, who needs to keep hitting at a higher level and to stay behind the plate if possible, is also the pride of Eastern Mennonite University. What dreams may come.
Shaun Marcum, RHP, 21
1-0, 8 Sv, 1.32, 21 G, 0 GS, 34 IP, 15 H, 7 BB, 47 K, 1 HR, 37.9% KBF
A two-way collegian, Marcum actually made the Missouri Valley Conference’s All-Star team in 2002 as a utility player; in 2003, he played shortstop and cracked 7 homers with a .280/.331/.427 line. But his best position was on the mound: in his two years as a reliever and then as a record-setting closer at Southwest Missouri State (he transferred from Mizzou after an unsuccessful freshman year there), his combined line was 76 IP, 68 H, 16 BB, 82 K. Like Justin James, Shaun (the Jays’ third-round choice in 2003) doesn’t have an overwhelming repertoire, but he does throw his 90ish fastball, a 12-to-6 curve and a nasty slider (his out pitch) for strikes, and he has the makings of a decent change-up too. The Jays have been known to draft a closer and put him into the rotation, and I expect they’ll try the same with Marcum. His numbers at Auburn were tremendous, even for a reliever, and he’ll be 22 next spring, so he’ll very likely get a promotion to Dunedin. If he makes the Bush transition from dominant reliever to dominant starter, then the Jays have struck gold again.
Tom Mastny, RHP, 22
8-0, 2.26, 14 GS, 63 IP, 56 H, 12 BB, 68 K, 1 HR, 27.0% KBF
Among life’s many mysteries is the question of how a 6’5”, 220-lb starter who led the entire NCAA in ERA (1.09) his senior year and struck out 103 batters in 124 innings could have hung around till the 11th round, where the Blue Jays picked him up from Furman. Mastny was second only to Josh Banks among Auburn’s very tough starters, failing to match him only in the strikeout category. Tom brings a sinking two-seam fastball in the low 90s and a big curveball; though he’s played around with other pitches, these two are his best offerings. He would seem to be poised for great success; nonetheless, he was 22 this year and in a pitchers’ league. And I can’t help wondering why no team, including the Jays, was interested in selecting him in the first ten rounds, with that pedigree. So for some reason, I’m actually a little cautious about projecting great things, though they seem likely to come. Just a back-burner thought to consider going forward.
Juan Peralta, SS/2B, 20
288 AB, .247/.346/.333, 62 R, 14 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 30 RBI, 43 BB, 50 K, 14 SB, 7 CS
Raw but intriguing, Juan Peralta and his numbers might not necessarily jump out at you, but he’s a prospect. An infielder who seems best suited to play shortstop (he got his full-time chance there after Aaron Hill was promoted to Dunedin), Peralta has a strong arm, quickness and a good feel for the position, and will probably get even better with the glove. He has good speed and is slowly adding power as he fills out his 5’11”, 170-lb frame (he gained 15 pounds just this year). But his outstanding skill is his strike-zone judgment: as a 17-year-old debuting in the Dominican Summer League in 2000, Juan posted a 52/45 BB/K rate in just 267 AB, which is almost unheard of. He’s maintained that batting eye through his first three pro seasons in North America (151/180 in 1,140 ABs), including one of the best BB/AB ratios on the deeply talented Auburn squad in 2003.
If there’s an early flaw, it’s his difficulty making contact: .247 isn’t good at all for Low-A ball, even if his walks gave him a fine OBP of .346. He needs to cut down on his K’s and put the ball in play some more, taking advantage of his speed, if he wants to be anything more than a defensive replacement and pinch-walker at higher levels. But Peralta is only 20 and has made excellent strides already. With more time to harness his remarkable talent and make more contact, Peralta could emerge as a serious infield prospect for the Blue Jays.
AJ Porfirio, OF, 23
271 AB, .286/.357/.421, 49 R, 8 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR, 40 RBI, 30 BB, 63 K, 4 SB, 2 CS
Angelo (A.J.) Porfirio was a late-round selection (30th) in the Jays’ 2002 draft out of college powerhouse Rice, where he played a hustling centrefield with good power and decent speed. But although he made the New York-Penn League’s All-Star team, his tools so far haven’t really translated into much success in the minor leagues. Despite his seven home runs, AJ actually didn’t display a whole lot of pop at Auburn this year, which is unfortunate, considering he struck out about once a game. His walks were just around the minimum 1/10 BB/AB ratio demanded by the organization, which is fine as far as it goes. But this was his second tour of duty in the NYP League, and he’ll turn 24 in December. I’m not sure he projects as much of a prospect at this point.
Brian Reed, RHP, 22
1-2, 1 Sv, 1.99, 28 G, 0 GS, 40 IP, 29 H, 11 BB, 53 K, 0 HR, 32.3% KBF
In 2002, Brian Reed was a dominant closer at the University of Alabama, posting a 1.76 ERA and striking out a whole lot of guys. He was injured warming up for an NCAA regional playoff game that year, however, and that may have contributed to a mediocre 2003 season in which, while he set the school record for saves, his ERA soared and his effectiveness diminished. But the Jays saw something there, and spent a mere 27th-round draft choice on Reed, who rewarded them by being one of the most dominant guys out of a ridiculously dominant Doubledays bullpen. I’ll throw only two quick red flags here, one being his age (an advanced 22), the other being a certain wildness that also plagued him in college. At his age and with those numbers, I expect him to start 2004 in the Dunedin pen. I’ll add only that it must have been hard for a devoted Crimson Tide like Reed to spend all that time at Alabama, then make his pro debut at Auburn.
Paul Richmond, C, 23
169 AB, .266/.408/.426, 37 R, 8 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 34 RBI, 41 BB, 36 K
What is it with the Blue Jays and catchers? I could tick off ten names of promising current or former young backstops in this organization: Josh Phelps, Jayson Werth, Kevin Cash, Guillermo Quiroz, Tim Whittaker, Erik Kratz, Robinson Diaz, Joey Reiman, Joey Wolfe, and John Schneider. Add to that list Paul Richmond, plucked from Baylor in the 28th round of the 2002 draft, who met with more success in his second trip through the NYP, largely because his strike-zone judgment went from pretty good (20/19 in 155 AB in ’02) to phenomenal (41/36 in 169 AB in ’03). Despite this improvement, Richmond could only hike his average a few points to .266, and for a 23-year-old in Auburn, that’s not terrific, even for a catcher. But I’ll always have time for someone who walks in a quarter of his at-bats, so Paul deserves a second look in 2004, though I imagine it will be in Charleston.
Ryan Roberts, 3B, 23
248 AB, .278/.374/.440, 52 R, 10 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 36 RBI, 35 BB, 63 K, 7 SB, 3 CS
You’d think that a third baseman’s .422/.514/.765 final year at college (with a 42/31 BB/K rate) would get some people’s attention, but Ryan Roberts had to wait till the 18th round of the 2003 draft before he was claimed out of the University of Texas-Arlington by the Blue Jays. So far, he’s looking like a steal: Roberts showed power, patience and even a little speed in his inaugural half-season in the pros. A compact 5’10”, 190 lbs, Roberts is a gap hitter who nonetheless has the strength to go yard: he finished second on the Doubledays in homers to Big Vito. The only knocks against him are the two knocks you’ve seen repeatedly through this report: he strikes out a lot and he’s pretty old (Ryan turned 23 in September). He can’t do much about the latter, but the former is at least something the organization can help him with. Roberts is sufficiently intriguing that he probably merits a promotion to Dunedin to begin 2004.
In fact, were I in charge of the Blue Jays’ minor-league system (and let’s all offer a little prayer of gratitude that I’m not), I’d be pushing all these 22- and 23-year-olds pretty hard next season (though I imagine Dick Scott will be doing that even without my input). The Jays have to find out soon whether these older collegiate players like Roberts, who performed so well in short-season ball, can make it through the winnowing process in the South Atlantic and (especially) the Florida State Leagues. Toronto’s 2002 draft class looked just amazing this time last year, but predictably, a number of those players struggled in their sophomore seasons against tougher competition. Baseball is largely about adjustments, and your degree of success depends as much upon your ability to adjust to opposition tactics as it does on your talent or your work ethic; not everyone adjusts. The Doubledays had a season for the ages, but remember that a number of these guys aren’t going to make it even as high as Double-A, let alone the majors. But of course, be positive about these guys, too -- many organizations wish they had even half of Auburn’s roster in their system. And have fun tracking them as they rise to Charleston, Dunedin and beyond in 2004; this is an exciting, promising group.
The record-setting performance of the Jays’ NYP club is due largely to the efforts of the 2003 draft class, many of whom were senior collegians whom the club considered its better prospects (lower-regarded youngsters often start in Pulaski). Not all the Doubledays finished the season in the NY-Penn: first-round draft pick Aaron Hill and ninth-round pitcher Jamie Vermilyea got the call to Dunedin when it became clear they were simply too much for the competition. But of those who did finish the season, the most interesting of them (16 in all) are listed here (there are more who deserve some consideration, but time just won’t allow it).
I’ll repeat here some of what I said yesterday about Low-A Ball: try not to read too much into these stats. Although the NYP presents a clearer picture of its players’ performances through their stat lines, still we’re talking about the second-lowest rung on the North American minor-league ladder. A lot can and will happen between here and the Florida State League, the first real proving ground for almost every Jays prospect. And that doesn’t even include the possibility – no, the virtual certainty – that some young arms will be lost to injury.
Keep in mind also that in 2003, NYP batters averaged a .245/.325/.348 line, the lowest in organized baseball (a .701 REqA; just behind, with a .702 mark, was none other than the Florida State League). So raise your amazement thresholds for the pitchers, and lower them slightly for the hitters, especially those who weren’t substantially older than the league-average age of 21.4 years (thanks to BB reader Andy Martin for this stat; and while I’m at it, thanks to Robert Dudek for his exemplary work on average age and more in all the minor leagues).
With all that in mind, here we go:
Josh Banks, RHP, 21
7-2, 2.43, 15 GS, 66 IP, 58 H, 10 BB, 81 K, 1 HR, 30.6% KBF
Here’s what Josh Banks did in the last 6 starts of the season: 27 IP, 16 H, 4 BB, 35 K. I bring this up to make a point about his stamina. His final short-season total, 66 IP, was more than he’d amassed in either of his first two years at Florida International, where he was both a starter and a reliever (he saved 5 games in 2001 and 2002). More importantly, in 2003 he was a starter almost full-time, and threw 105 IP in college before bringing his season’s total to 171 with Auburn. If he was running out of gas as he pitched his final 30 innings, it sure wasn’t evident.
Now, I’m as cautious as the next guy about overworking a young arm (so long as the next guy isn’t Jeff Torborg), and Banks had some blister problems in college that may have cost him a first-round draft slot. So needless to say, you don’t want to overwork him. But Banks is a remarkably efficient pitcher, and the Jays are extremely cautious about workload; all the young starters saw their outings shortened towards the end of the season. But none of those arms are as potentially valuable as Banks’. He’s a healthy 21 and is building strength as he goes; he’s a tall, whiplike figure at the moment (6’3”, 195) and he’ll probably add a little muscle to that frame yet. He throws in the 90-94 range with a sharp slider and a mid-80s splitter, all of which he can pinpoint for strikes; his change is coming along nicely too. The MLB Scouting Bureau drew comparisons with Bret Saberhagen; to me, he more closely resembles the last pitcher the Jays chose in the second round of the draft: David Bush. Watch for him in Dunedin and maybe even Manchester next season: Banks is coming, and fast.
Bubbie Buzachero, RHP, 22
1-1, 13 Sv, 1.54, 30 G, 0 GS, 35 IP, 25 H, 7 BB, 47 K, 1 HR, 34.5% KBF
For someone with such an unforgettable name, Buzachero seems to be flying below the organizational radar a little bit. This was his second pro season; he debuted with Medicine Hat last year and though he recorded a lot of strikeouts, his command was negligible (25 BB and 10 WP in 40 IP). But in 2003, he found his control, and everything else fell into place. His final numbers were as strong as any Auburn reliever except Jamie Vermilyea. Bubbie has a live fastball and a very tight, hard curveball; since that appears to be the extent of his repertoire, he’s probably looking at a career in the bullpen. He’s a small guy: 5’11”, 180 lbs, which makes me think of another shortish righty with a great curve, Tom Gordon. Bubbie reportedly has had some questions surrounding his maturity, however, and that may be holding him back; but if he’s controlled his behaviour like he now controls his pitches, he should be fine going forward. He turned 22 in June, so it’s time this little doggie got along. Dunedin seems reasonable for 2004, though Charleston is also a possibility.
Vito Chiaravalloti, 1B, 22
228 AB, .351/.469/.605, 47 R, 29 2B, 1 3B, 12 HR, 67 RBI, 47 BB, 48 K
What’s there left to say? The remarkable debut of Vito Chiaravalloti has been discussed repeatedly here at Batter’s Box and elsewhere. After tearing up college pitching his first two full years at the University of Richmond (to the tune of .328/.459/.672 in 2001 and .357/.465/.727 in 2002), he slumped to .306/.398/.528 as a senior in 2003 (possibly because of an injury, though I haven’t been able to confirm it). Toronto chose him in the 15th round and he responded by taking home the NY-Penn League’s Triple Crown.
The positives: Vito is big (6’3”, 220 lbs) and powerful, yet has quick hands and a compact stroke. He’s an excellent athlete (a former all-state swimmer) who showed leadership abilities (he captained his college baseball team). He’s also a smart, highly disciplined, opposite-field slugger. Check out these quotes from an article about Vito in The Jersey Journal (thanks to Repoz from Baseball Primer for the link):
“I made a lot of adjustments through the year and I did so very quickly, and that's what helped me. One of the biggest adjustments was just staying within myself and not trying to do too much. With the wooden bat, I tried to use the right side of the field and the middle of the field and not pull everything. That's my style; patience at the plate. Getting the right pitch to hit is very important. I was making sure I didn't give my at-bats away. I focused each day, even when I was tired. I focused every time I was at-bat and was ready to take my walks when they came. Sometimes the first pitch is the one you need to drive, but when you're hitting in the 3-4-or-5-spot, the pitcher is trying to get you to hit the pitch he wants. Working the pitcher is very important. The more pitches he throws, the more mistakes he's liable to make."
You could cut-and-paste that into an organizational textbook for how to be a great hitter.
The negatives? Despite his athleticism, Vito is not considered gifted defensively, and projects as an adequate first baseman at best. He’s vulnerable to hard inside stuff (then again, so are many sluggers) and was kind of old for his league. Dominating short-season A-Ball, even in a pitchers’ league like the NYP, isn’t the same as ripping it up at Dunedin or even Charleston; everyone remembers Jason Perry, who posted a 1.300 OPS in Rookie Ball last year (but that was, keep in mind, an important half-level below the NYP). And while the Triple Crown sure is nice, the last Jays prospect to achieve it was Greg Morrison of the 1997 Medicine Hat Blue Jays. I’m sure you remember him.
So there you have it, the positives and negatives. Which will win? Put me in the positives camp. Vito is strong, disciplined, and has a quick bat; you can’t ask for three better characteristics in a hitter than that, at any level. He’ll almost certainly start 2004 at Dunedin, and as we know, the Florida State League is the first real test for a hitter, one that Jason Perry struggled with. Vito will not post a 1.074 OPS at Dunedin, but watch him closely: check his BB/K rate and his isolated power. The FSL is his first professional exam; if he passes with honours, then you can start taking Vito very seriously as a batting prospect. I think he’ll impress and surprise a lot of people.
Carlo Cota, 2B/3B, 23
169 AB, .320/.416/.521, 31 R, 13 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 34 RBI, 27 BB, 45 K, 3 SB, 2 CS
If not for Vito Chiaravalloti, the biggest bat on the Auburn Doubledays would have belonged to a player you might not have heard of: Carlo Cota. The compact infielder showed excellent strike-zone judgment and unprecedented power (5 HRs this year at Auburn, compared with 5 total round-trippers in his three years in college), though with more K’s than you’d necessarily like to see (one every four ABs). Cota’s name might lead you to think he was a free-agent signing from Latin America, but in fact he was an outstanding scholar-athlete with a degree in international business who was regarded as one of the leaders of a San Diego State team coached by Tony Gwynn. Cota was a long-shot pick (taken 33rd in the 2002 draft) and had a decent debut last year at Medicine Hat.
Now, consider these two key caveats: this is his second year in Rookie Ball, and he was 23 by season’s end (or, put differently, only a year younger than Dominic Rich). So perhaps needless to say, Carlo needs to get out of short-season ball and start producing at the Low- or High-A level before he can be considered a prospect. But he seems like a good, smart guy, and I’m hoping he can perform well at a higher level. If he has a future position, I think it’ll be second base.
Mike Galloway, OF, 22
172 AB, .302/.379./.477, 36 R, 12 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 33 RBI, 20 BB, 47 K, 3 SB, 1 CS
We like to ensure that there’s always one Canadian on these lists somewhere. A proud graduate of Elgin Central High in St. Thomas, Ontario, Galloway played at Central Michigan before transferring to Miami of Ohio for his senior year. The change must’ve done him good: he led the Mid-American Conference with a .422 average and a .722 slugging percentage his final year, which was enough to get the Jays’ attention; they took him in the 14th round in 2002. He struggled in his rookie league debut with Medicine Hat, but played well in his second go-round this year.
Galloway plays outfield, but he was an infielder in college, playing first, third and catcher; you might guess that’s he not a particularly fleet-footed outfielder. His game is power and aggressiveness: he appears to be a gung-ho type, popular with fans who like the hoo-wah type of personality. He cranked out 15 homers his final year at Miami, but the Jays are still waiting to see that power in the pros, and all those strikeouts just point up his lack of serious pop all the more. Mike turned 22 in May, so the clock is ticking a little; but the organization also loaned him out to Dunedin and Syracuse a couple of times this year, so they’re at least paying attention to him. He figures to be in the Charleston outfield in 2004, and though he needs to show more power, that’s normally hard to come by in the Sally. Next year looks like a key season for Galloway.
Jeremy Harper, RHP, 22
5-1, 3.79, 19 G, 1 GS, 40 IP, 28 H, 18 BB, 36 K, 2 HR, 21.6% KBF
One round after the Jays selected Navy lefty Matt Foster (who made a cameo appearance at Pulaski before heading off to begin his military commitment; expect him back full-time in 2005), they dipped right back into the armed forces and came up with Jeremy Harper from the Virginia Military Institute (VMI), a school reportedly surpassed in its toughness and discipline only by the Citadel (Texas’ Ryan Glynn is an alumnus). Harper throws in the low 90s with a pretty good curve and change-up. His numbers at college and in the pros remind me a little of Chad Pleiness: few hits allowed, but an inordinate number of walks and not as many strikeouts as you’d like. Considering Chad’s struggles this season at Dunedin, Harper (who, like Pleiness, was also a standout basketball player) might be in for more of the same in 2004. But like Foster, I don’t anticipate Harper having any problems adjusting to life in the low minors. After VMI, the overnight bus rides and the cramped motels will probably seem like Park Avenue.
Kurt Isenberg, LHP, 21
7-2, 1.63, 13 GS, 60 IP, 40 H, 19 BB, 57 K, 1 HR, 23.3% KBF
Here’s Exhibit A for the argument that stats alone can’t tell you everything. In his final year at James Madison, Kurt Isenberg posted this lofty line: 8-8, 5.85, 97 IP, 116 H, 42 BB, 97 K, 7 HR, 10 WP. The second coming of Tanyon Sturtze, you say. But Jays scouts saw something they liked — I’ll bet the 1/1 K/IP ratio didn’t hurt – and grabbed him with a 4th-round 2003 pick that some people thought was an overdraft. But the team improved his delivery and polished his curveball, bringing it from a minus to a plus that complemented his 90-mph moving fastball and a decent change-up. The result: the lowest ERA in the New York-Penn League. He’ll be 22 next season, so there’s a very good chance he could start the year in Dunedin; but considering how crowded that rotation appears to be, Kurt could well start off in the Sally. His overall numbers were excellent, though not overwhelming in the BB/IP department, so you might want to consider him a half-step behind Banks right now. But he’s still young and he’s a lefty, and I think there’s something special here. If he can trade 10 walks for 10 Ks next year, watch out.
Justin James, RHP, 22
2-1, 3.20, 13 G, 8 GS, 39 IP, 34 H, 11 BB, 42 K, 2 HR, 26.4% KBF
A teammate of Jayce Tingler at the University of Missouri, James almost didn’t make it to college: coming out of high school, he was chosen by the Red Sox in the 6th round of the 2001 draft. But he demurred and went to college, where the Jays snagged him in the 5th round this past June as a sophomore. As a result, he’s a little younger than some of the collegians at Auburn (he was 21 most of the year), which bodes well. James is, in some ways, the archetypal Blue Jays pitching draft choice. His stuff isn’t overpowering: a fastball that hangs around 90, but with a fine curveball and a solid change-up; and at 6’3”, 215 lbs, he might yet add some mph on the heater. More importantly, he throws strikes: in his final year at Mizzou, his BB/K rate was 26/92 in 114 innings. When he was drafted, a lot of observers thought the Jays had gotten themselves a steal, and though James started slowly, he really came on strong later in the season: his final numbers are a little deceiving in that regard. He finished the year in the rotation, so that will probably be his role when 2004 begins. I would suggest a start in Charleston, but I have a feeling he could move up in a real hurry. If there’s a rotation sleeper from the ’03 draft, he’s it.
Erik Kratz, C, 23
157 AB, .312/.411/.503, 25 R, 15 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 26 RBI, 21 BB, 31 K
One of the great things about doing these reports is that I find something new and cool in almost every edition. Today’s vehicle for discovery is Erik Kratz, a 2002 29th-round draft choice who spent most of this year splitting catching duties for the Doubledays. Kratz is unusually big for a catcher: at 6’4”, 240 lbs, he’s a cement block behind the plate. By way of comparison, Josh Phelps is 6’3”, 220. History shows us that big men don’t stay behind the plate very long, and indeed, Kratz played several games at first base this year. Probably better for his body, but not so good for his pro chances: those numbers are very good for a backstop but barely adequate for a first sacker, especially one who turned 23 in June. Erik does have some big numbers on his CV, however: in his final year at college, he batted .507 with 14 HRs and 59 RBIs.
Now before you start sputtering, note that Kratz played for Eastern Mennonite University in the Old Dominion Athletic Conference – not exactly the Big 10. But EMU itself is the pretty cool part: it’s a tiny Virginia college with fewer than 1,500 students in a town of 40,000. It offers master’s degrees in conflict transformation and hosts the Annual Shenandoah Valley Bach Festival. It’s seriously Mennonite, offering numerous MAs in divinity and church leadership, and overall, they’re a quietly iconoclastic bunch. I like ‘em. Kratz is their first baseball player to turn pro, though not their first pro baseball alumnus: Larry Sheets attended EMU on a basketball scholarship. So there you go: Erik Kratz, 23, who needs to keep hitting at a higher level and to stay behind the plate if possible, is also the pride of Eastern Mennonite University. What dreams may come.
Shaun Marcum, RHP, 21
1-0, 8 Sv, 1.32, 21 G, 0 GS, 34 IP, 15 H, 7 BB, 47 K, 1 HR, 37.9% KBF
A two-way collegian, Marcum actually made the Missouri Valley Conference’s All-Star team in 2002 as a utility player; in 2003, he played shortstop and cracked 7 homers with a .280/.331/.427 line. But his best position was on the mound: in his two years as a reliever and then as a record-setting closer at Southwest Missouri State (he transferred from Mizzou after an unsuccessful freshman year there), his combined line was 76 IP, 68 H, 16 BB, 82 K. Like Justin James, Shaun (the Jays’ third-round choice in 2003) doesn’t have an overwhelming repertoire, but he does throw his 90ish fastball, a 12-to-6 curve and a nasty slider (his out pitch) for strikes, and he has the makings of a decent change-up too. The Jays have been known to draft a closer and put him into the rotation, and I expect they’ll try the same with Marcum. His numbers at Auburn were tremendous, even for a reliever, and he’ll be 22 next spring, so he’ll very likely get a promotion to Dunedin. If he makes the Bush transition from dominant reliever to dominant starter, then the Jays have struck gold again.
Tom Mastny, RHP, 22
8-0, 2.26, 14 GS, 63 IP, 56 H, 12 BB, 68 K, 1 HR, 27.0% KBF
Among life’s many mysteries is the question of how a 6’5”, 220-lb starter who led the entire NCAA in ERA (1.09) his senior year and struck out 103 batters in 124 innings could have hung around till the 11th round, where the Blue Jays picked him up from Furman. Mastny was second only to Josh Banks among Auburn’s very tough starters, failing to match him only in the strikeout category. Tom brings a sinking two-seam fastball in the low 90s and a big curveball; though he’s played around with other pitches, these two are his best offerings. He would seem to be poised for great success; nonetheless, he was 22 this year and in a pitchers’ league. And I can’t help wondering why no team, including the Jays, was interested in selecting him in the first ten rounds, with that pedigree. So for some reason, I’m actually a little cautious about projecting great things, though they seem likely to come. Just a back-burner thought to consider going forward.
Juan Peralta, SS/2B, 20
288 AB, .247/.346/.333, 62 R, 14 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 30 RBI, 43 BB, 50 K, 14 SB, 7 CS
Raw but intriguing, Juan Peralta and his numbers might not necessarily jump out at you, but he’s a prospect. An infielder who seems best suited to play shortstop (he got his full-time chance there after Aaron Hill was promoted to Dunedin), Peralta has a strong arm, quickness and a good feel for the position, and will probably get even better with the glove. He has good speed and is slowly adding power as he fills out his 5’11”, 170-lb frame (he gained 15 pounds just this year). But his outstanding skill is his strike-zone judgment: as a 17-year-old debuting in the Dominican Summer League in 2000, Juan posted a 52/45 BB/K rate in just 267 AB, which is almost unheard of. He’s maintained that batting eye through his first three pro seasons in North America (151/180 in 1,140 ABs), including one of the best BB/AB ratios on the deeply talented Auburn squad in 2003.
If there’s an early flaw, it’s his difficulty making contact: .247 isn’t good at all for Low-A ball, even if his walks gave him a fine OBP of .346. He needs to cut down on his K’s and put the ball in play some more, taking advantage of his speed, if he wants to be anything more than a defensive replacement and pinch-walker at higher levels. But Peralta is only 20 and has made excellent strides already. With more time to harness his remarkable talent and make more contact, Peralta could emerge as a serious infield prospect for the Blue Jays.
AJ Porfirio, OF, 23
271 AB, .286/.357/.421, 49 R, 8 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR, 40 RBI, 30 BB, 63 K, 4 SB, 2 CS
Angelo (A.J.) Porfirio was a late-round selection (30th) in the Jays’ 2002 draft out of college powerhouse Rice, where he played a hustling centrefield with good power and decent speed. But although he made the New York-Penn League’s All-Star team, his tools so far haven’t really translated into much success in the minor leagues. Despite his seven home runs, AJ actually didn’t display a whole lot of pop at Auburn this year, which is unfortunate, considering he struck out about once a game. His walks were just around the minimum 1/10 BB/AB ratio demanded by the organization, which is fine as far as it goes. But this was his second tour of duty in the NYP League, and he’ll turn 24 in December. I’m not sure he projects as much of a prospect at this point.
Brian Reed, RHP, 22
1-2, 1 Sv, 1.99, 28 G, 0 GS, 40 IP, 29 H, 11 BB, 53 K, 0 HR, 32.3% KBF
In 2002, Brian Reed was a dominant closer at the University of Alabama, posting a 1.76 ERA and striking out a whole lot of guys. He was injured warming up for an NCAA regional playoff game that year, however, and that may have contributed to a mediocre 2003 season in which, while he set the school record for saves, his ERA soared and his effectiveness diminished. But the Jays saw something there, and spent a mere 27th-round draft choice on Reed, who rewarded them by being one of the most dominant guys out of a ridiculously dominant Doubledays bullpen. I’ll throw only two quick red flags here, one being his age (an advanced 22), the other being a certain wildness that also plagued him in college. At his age and with those numbers, I expect him to start 2004 in the Dunedin pen. I’ll add only that it must have been hard for a devoted Crimson Tide like Reed to spend all that time at Alabama, then make his pro debut at Auburn.
Paul Richmond, C, 23
169 AB, .266/.408/.426, 37 R, 8 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 34 RBI, 41 BB, 36 K
What is it with the Blue Jays and catchers? I could tick off ten names of promising current or former young backstops in this organization: Josh Phelps, Jayson Werth, Kevin Cash, Guillermo Quiroz, Tim Whittaker, Erik Kratz, Robinson Diaz, Joey Reiman, Joey Wolfe, and John Schneider. Add to that list Paul Richmond, plucked from Baylor in the 28th round of the 2002 draft, who met with more success in his second trip through the NYP, largely because his strike-zone judgment went from pretty good (20/19 in 155 AB in ’02) to phenomenal (41/36 in 169 AB in ’03). Despite this improvement, Richmond could only hike his average a few points to .266, and for a 23-year-old in Auburn, that’s not terrific, even for a catcher. But I’ll always have time for someone who walks in a quarter of his at-bats, so Paul deserves a second look in 2004, though I imagine it will be in Charleston.
Ryan Roberts, 3B, 23
248 AB, .278/.374/.440, 52 R, 10 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 36 RBI, 35 BB, 63 K, 7 SB, 3 CS
You’d think that a third baseman’s .422/.514/.765 final year at college (with a 42/31 BB/K rate) would get some people’s attention, but Ryan Roberts had to wait till the 18th round of the 2003 draft before he was claimed out of the University of Texas-Arlington by the Blue Jays. So far, he’s looking like a steal: Roberts showed power, patience and even a little speed in his inaugural half-season in the pros. A compact 5’10”, 190 lbs, Roberts is a gap hitter who nonetheless has the strength to go yard: he finished second on the Doubledays in homers to Big Vito. The only knocks against him are the two knocks you’ve seen repeatedly through this report: he strikes out a lot and he’s pretty old (Ryan turned 23 in September). He can’t do much about the latter, but the former is at least something the organization can help him with. Roberts is sufficiently intriguing that he probably merits a promotion to Dunedin to begin 2004.
In fact, were I in charge of the Blue Jays’ minor-league system (and let’s all offer a little prayer of gratitude that I’m not), I’d be pushing all these 22- and 23-year-olds pretty hard next season (though I imagine Dick Scott will be doing that even without my input). The Jays have to find out soon whether these older collegiate players like Roberts, who performed so well in short-season ball, can make it through the winnowing process in the South Atlantic and (especially) the Florida State Leagues. Toronto’s 2002 draft class looked just amazing this time last year, but predictably, a number of those players struggled in their sophomore seasons against tougher competition. Baseball is largely about adjustments, and your degree of success depends as much upon your ability to adjust to opposition tactics as it does on your talent or your work ethic; not everyone adjusts. The Doubledays had a season for the ages, but remember that a number of these guys aren’t going to make it even as high as Double-A, let alone the majors. But of course, be positive about these guys, too -- many organizations wish they had even half of Auburn’s roster in their system. And have fun tracking them as they rise to Charleston, Dunedin and beyond in 2004; this is an exciting, promising group.
