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Florida Marlins (Carl Pavano) at Chicago Cubs (Mark Prior)

I didn't think the Marlins would get to game 6, but Josh Beckett pitched perhaps the best game of the post-season so far and the offence uncharactically plated their runs via the long ball. Tonight, I'm predicting a Cubs victory, but in a hard-fought contest.

After how terrible Brad Penny looked in his game 2 start, I commend McKeon for starting a well-rested Carl Pavano. He'll pitch well tonight and may even shut down the Cubs completely. Prior is going to be asked to go deep into the game again - a 120+ pitch count seems like a lock. I'll go out on the limb and say that Prior shows signs of tiring in the 6th or 7th. The final score will be "Cubs 4, Marlins 3" with the winning run scoring in the bottom of the 8th or 9th.

Get ready for party-time in Wrigleyville.

National League Championship Series, Game 6 - 8 PM ET | 38 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_Donkit R.K. - Tuesday, October 14 2003 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#88172) #
1-0 Cubs after one after Sosa drove in Lofton with a double. BTW, No matter how 'wrong' the approach is, Randall Simon is fun to watch.
_A - Tuesday, October 14 2003 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#88173) #
Ain't it suck to be cursed? Who saw an 8 run implosion coming?
_A - Tuesday, October 14 2003 @ 10:58 PM EDT (#88174) #
Daunting stats like the Cubs have lost 67 straight games while trailing after 9 make me smile just a little bit. Then factor in the 5-run defacit and it turns into an all out grin. Except I actually want to see the Cubbies get past this round.
_Jacko - Tuesday, October 14 2003 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#88175) #
Yikes.

Let's hope Kerry Wood has good stuff tomorrow...
_A - Tuesday, October 14 2003 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#88176) #
That was a beautiful piece about not beating up the fan that factored into the eight run inning by interfering with Moises Alu's attempt to catch a foulball.

I bet he doesn't have a windshield by tomorrow morning and that his funeral is being planned by day's end. I'm not endorsing it but when you figure into the curse like that it just isn't gonna turn out well.
_A - Tuesday, October 14 2003 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#88177) #
That was a beautiful piece about not beating up the fan that factored into the eight run inning by interfering with Moises Alu's attempt to catch a foulball.

I bet he doesn't have a windshield by tomorrow morning and that his funeral is being planned by day's end. I'm not endorsing it but when you figure into the curse like that it just isn't gonna turn out well.
_Steve Birnie - Tuesday, October 14 2003 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#88178) #
Un-freaking-believeable.
Craig B - Tuesday, October 14 2003 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#88179) #
Oh mercy. That was not pretty.

The worst thing was that the whole team, from Dusty on down, completely quit on the game when the score was still only 3-3.
Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, October 14 2003 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#88180) #
http://economics.about.com
Oh man.. that was great!

I really hope the Cubs lose game 7. If they do, people are going to remember this game 6 for a long, long time. Since I don't care about any of the teams in the playoffs, all I'm looking for is a good story. Cubs break curse or Red Sox break curse is not an entertaining story. Cubs snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory is a much more compelling story, IMHO.

All I can think right now is that Will Carroll is going to be really, really pissed.

Mike
_Shrike - Tuesday, October 14 2003 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#88181) #
I am still stunned by the outcome of this game.

As I am rooting for the Cubs to win the Series this year by default, I was yelling at the television during the 8th inning for Baker to pull Prior (after grimly accepting that Baker had put him out there to begin with). I mean, he's over a hundred pitches thrown with a shutout through 7 IP. Get him safely out of the game and trust your bullpen--which has several competent pitchers--to get 6 outs! I mean, it royally screws the Cubs' chances to win the brass ring now that they have to pitch Kerry Wood in a game seven, winner-take-all affair.
_Grimlock - Tuesday, October 14 2003 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#88182) #
Oh man.. that was great!

Me Grimlock agree. There's nothing, NOTHING like a postseason implosion like we just witnessed. Especially when they occur to a franchise and fanbase that is desperate for a pennant.

Hell, it's why me Grimlock watches things like the Little League World Series. You KNOW those kids are gonna choke! And then cry afterwards. You see the look on all those hurtbag Cubs fans? All those fools standing around on Waveland Ave? Man, the game ended half an hour ago, and me Grimlock still can't wipe the grin off me Grimlock's face!

Go Fish!
Dave Till - Tuesday, October 14 2003 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#88183) #
Ohmigawd.

That fan is going to require police protection, alas. Some overzealous Cub fan will undoubtedly try to assault him.

Ex-Jays are not doing well in the postseason: first, Cruz botches things in San Francisco, and now Gonzalez punts an inning-ending double play ground ball.

The Cubs could still win game 7, but they'll have 95 (or 48) years of
history on their backs.

A Marlins-Yankees World Series would be a drag.

I'm glad I'm not a Cubs fan.
Gitz - Tuesday, October 14 2003 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#88184) #
First, we don't even know if Alou would have actually made the catch. Secondly, and far more importantly, Gonazalez is the goat in this inning, plain and simple. Third, Craig B. had the exact same thought I did.

Does anyone have some numbers on what happens in game sevens after a team has blown a 3-1 lead? It seems to me that if the team that was ahead 3-1 didn't close it out in games five or six then they can't do it in game seven a majority of the time.
_StephenT - Tuesday, October 14 2003 @ 11:53 PM EDT (#88185) #
The same thing could so easily happen to a Jays fan at SkyDome some day. Several times a year a SkyDome fan reaches over the field to turn a potential triple into a fan interference double. All the Jays have to do is put a tarp over the first row of seats down the line so fans just can't reach onto the field. But after fourteen years of those pre-game announcements not getting through, the Jays still haven't fixed the problem. They should resolve to fix it now, before they start selling those seats for 2004. It makes the game less exciting when the action is killed by a fan. (I don't see a need to adjust the Wrigley seats, however, as the kind of play that happened tonight would be pretty rare, and technically wasn't even interference as the ump ruled.)
robertdudek - Wednesday, October 15 2003 @ 12:03 AM EDT (#88186) #
It was awfuly close to fan interference. I believe the ball would have come down right on the ledge or just in the field of play if it had remained untouched. Had no fans been sitting there, Alou would have caught the ball.

Not quite the Denkinger call that helped turn the tide against the Saint Louis Cardinals in 1985, but so far it has led to one complete meltdown in Game 6 by the Cubs. Tomorrows game should be very exciting.

I think Mark Redman is a very crafty pitcher and he should hold the Cubs down to 2 or 3 runs through 6 innings.
Coach - Wednesday, October 15 2003 @ 12:17 AM EDT (#88187) #
Gonazalez is the goat in this inning, plain and simple.

Oh, yeah. The poor guy that interfered with the ball is going to be legendary, but that easy bouncer to Alex was Buckneresque. What an amazing postseason. I can't wait for tomorrow.
_Chuck Van Den C - Wednesday, October 15 2003 @ 12:24 AM EDT (#88188) #
I wonder if that play wouldn't more likely have been called interference had it affected the road team, where the umpire might have inferred some malice on the part of the fans.

But rather than malice, some boob (in a Cubs hat no less) and his sidekick decide that home field advantage doesn't stack up to a $6 baseball.

Dusty Baker sees his ace pitcher go south, perhaps the by-product of needlessly milking pitches out of him in a blow-out in his previous start.

And then the whole team folds up shop.

Tell me again why the Cubs are the lesser of the four remaining evils?
_Jacko - Wednesday, October 15 2003 @ 12:27 AM EDT (#88189) #

Does anyone have some numbers on what happens in game sevens after a team has blown a 3-1 lead? It seems to me that if the team that was ahead 3-1 didn't close it out in games five or six then they can't do it in game seven a majority of the time.


No stats here, but who can forget the great ALCS collapse of 1985?

Jim Freaking Sundberg.

The Royals also came back from 3-1 down to win the World Series.
_StephenT - Wednesday, October 15 2003 @ 12:49 AM EDT (#88190) #
It wasn't interference because the ball was on the fans' side of the fence. This is like the George Bell in Anaheim play (1985). Even if the ump thinks the player would have caught the ball if the fans had stayed out of the way, he can't rule interference in that situation. (The Fox announcers got this right, but the Sportsnet analyst, like Fergie Olver in 1985, apparently didn't know the rule.)

Most stadiums have the possibility of interference on pop fouls near the edge of the seats. SkyDome is worse in that it makes it easy for fans to interfere on balls rolling down the line; then the ump has to judge where to place the baserunners.

Don't tell Ottawa Senators fans that it's automatic for the winner of Games 5 and 6 to also take Game 7. :-)
_Chuck Van Den C - Wednesday, October 15 2003 @ 07:19 AM EDT (#88191) #
It wasn't interference because the ball was on the fans' side of the fence.

Stephen, I'm not saying it's crystal clear either way, but to me, it looked like the fan reached over the railing, though admittedly not a lot.

For what it's worth, the picture at ESPN makes it look that way as well (though I certainly acknowledge that a photo can be very deceptive).
_lurker - Wednesday, October 15 2003 @ 07:56 AM EDT (#88192) #
I predict the Cubs will lose game 7, and I'll tell you why. You can tell by their reaction that they're not mentally tough and cannot put things behind them. You could see it in Alou when he couldn't catch the ball, you could see it in the lack of focus on the grounder to A-Gonz, and you could see it in their complete folding and in Baker's post game comments about the fan not being a Cubs fan.

If Baker was a good manager, first he'd refuse comment on the fan and say the team has nobody to blame but themselves. Second, he'd have a team meeting immediately and tell his players to block out what's happened and focus on the one home game they have to win to get to the World Series. That meeting should continue until he pounds it into everyone's head that game 6 is in the past.

I doubt he's done this though, which is why the Cubs will choke tonight.
Named For Hank - Wednesday, October 15 2003 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#88193) #
Get ready for party-time in Wrigleyville.

Robert jinxed them. ;)

Vanessa's cheering for the Cubs. I was, too, but then something about the play of the Marlins really got me into them. I'd be happy to see either get into the World Series, and I'm glad that we're going to see game seven and that there's no foregone conclusion.

Is it mean of me to want to see a Red Sox vs. Cubs World Series because one of them would have to lose and continue their streak?
robertdudek - Wednesday, October 15 2003 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#88194) #
I was an inning late on Prior tiring, and I didn't foresee Alex's muff. If that had not happened the Cubs might have won 4-3.
_Mick - Wednesday, October 15 2003 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#88195) #
First, let's all remember that old baseball maxim, "Momentum is only as good as tonight's starting pitcher." I like Redman, but would much rather have Wood going in a Game 7. Texas bulldog.

Quote of the day from the Chicago Tribune:
Another fan yelled, "You could tell we're better than Boston or he'd be dead already."
_George Tsuji - Wednesday, October 15 2003 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#88196) #
Don't tell Ottawa Senators fans that it's automatic for the winner of Games 5 and 6 to also take Game 7. :-)

Heh. Thought you might say that, Steve! :)

Does anyone have some numbers on what happens in game sevens after a team has blown a 3-1 lead?

Don't have baseball numbers, but before Game 7 of the Sens-Devils series, I did go and look up how teams had fared after rallying to win Games 5 and 6 of NHL playoff series.

Going back to 1992, 12 of the last 16 teams that had won games 5 and 6 also won Game 7, with 9 (of 12) of them doing it on the road. (The latter qualifier would make the stat more significant as these nine teams were all "worse" than their opposition).

Of course, that stat is now 12 of 17...
Mike D - Wednesday, October 15 2003 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#88197) #
As the unofficial postseason historian for Batter's Box, the short answer is: Of all teams to have won Games 5 and 6 to force a Game 7, 8 went on to win the series, while 4 lost Game 7.

Here's the longer answer:

The following teams won Game 7 after winning Games 5 and 6:

* 1925, Pirates over Senators, at home.
* 1958, Yankees over Braves, on the road.
* 1968, Tigers over Cardinals, at home.
* 1979, Pirates over Orioles, on the road.
* 1985, Royals over Blue Jays (grr), on the road.
* 1985, Royals over Cardinals (after Denkingergate), at home.
* 1986, Red Sox over Angels, at home.
* 1996, Braves over Cardinals, at home.

And the following teams lost Game 7 despite winning Games 5 and 6:

* 1912, Giants lost to Red Sox, on the road. This was actually a Game 8, since Game 2 was called a tie due to darkness. The N.Y. Giants won Games 6 and 7, and coughed up Game 8.
* 1967, Red Sox lost to Cardinals, at home.
* 1972, Reds lost to A's, at home.
* 1992, Pirates lost to Braves (barely), on the road.

The only other historical footnote here is that the 1903 Boston Pilgrims fell behind Pittsburgh 3 games to 1, and went on to win Games 5, 6, 7 and 8 in the best-of-nine series.
_S.K. - Wednesday, October 15 2003 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#88198) #
Lurker: It's downright ridiculous to say that Alou's failure to catch a fan-deflected ball reflects a lack of character. Further, you can't really blame the Cubs as a whole for being shell-shocked after the game - *I* was still marvelling at things hours later. The only Cub whose focus matters tonight is Kerry Wood, and I think he'll be fine.
_George Tsuji - Wednesday, October 15 2003 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#88199) #
The Black Sox won Games 6 and 7 to force a Game 8 (which they lost)... does that count? :-)
Coach - Wednesday, October 15 2003 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#88200) #
I'm still puzzled as to why the spectator (Steve Bartman, 26, a youth coach and avid Cubs fan) is getting so much blame.

The out that Alou probably would have made had no bearing on the score. The whole "interference" issue was nothing but (perhaps) a bad omen. They would have been out of the inning with the score 3-1, if Gonzalez fields the two hopper.

Now Bartman is going to be reviled and equated with the likes of Mrs. O'Leary's cow, as Richard Griffin suggests, when really, it should be A-Gone who lives in infamy beside Fred Merkle and company for misplays of classic proportions.
Craig B - Wednesday, October 15 2003 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#88201) #
Tangotiger has a terrific discussion of the Cubs' choke act using "win expectancy" over at the Primate Studies of Baseball Primer. He correctly identifies the three crucial plays... Lee's double (by far the biggest play of the inning), Mordecai's double, and Gonzalez's error.

"Anatomy of a Collapse". The best thing I have read on the Inning From The Depths Of Hell.
_gid - Wednesday, October 15 2003 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#88202) #
I'm still puzzled as to why the spectator (Steve Bartman, 26, a youth coach and avid Cubs fan) is getting so much blame.


It's the natural human instinct to blame somebody else for one's problems.
Craig B - Wednesday, October 15 2003 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#88203) #
Hey, last time I checked, Alex Gonzalez was somebody else, as were Mark Prior and Dusty Baker. No one is getting on them.
_gid - Wednesday, October 15 2003 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#88204) #
They're part of the team, much closer to a typical fan than some random other fan, even if it happens to be a fan of the same club.
Gitz - Wednesday, October 15 2003 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#88205) #
As usual, I'm with Coach on this one. As I said last night, Gonzalez is the villain from the fiasco. He should be sending that fan a generous contribution for keeping the blame, for the most part, away from the people who really deserve it.
Dave Till - Wednesday, October 15 2003 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#88206) #
Some second thoughts on the Incident:

- I forget where I read this, but did Alou actually call for the ball as he was heading towards the left-field stands? That might have warned fans to stay away.

- It's easy to forget how difficult it is for the untrained eye to track the flight and location of a ball. To realize that the ball could be caught by Alou, the fan would have had to take his eye off of it, which would have increased the risk of being hit on the head by the darned thing.

I agree with the general consensus: I blame Gonzalez. That was an easy double-play ball.
Coach - Wednesday, October 15 2003 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#88207) #
the three crucial plays... Lee's double (by far the biggest play of the inning), Mordecai's double, and Gonzalez's error.

Though I'd never argue with Tangotiger's work, I'm convinced that Gonzalez should have turned two. If that happens, Lee and Mordecai don't even bat. Sure, as it turned out, their hits were "bigger" plays than the error, but unless I'm missing something, that assumes the Cubs would have settled for the force at second had Gonzo caught the ball.

I'm not absolving Prior and Dusty of their "Loss Shares" -- one was tired and the other ignored it -- but Alex did more to blow the game than anyone, and Bartman's role has been greatly exaggerated.
robertdudek - Wednesday, October 15 2003 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#88208) #
No one has mentioned Ivan Rodriguez' AB. Prior had him 0-2, I think. He wasted one high and came back with a fastball on the inner half low. Pudge lined it into LF.

I think I would have taken Prior out at that point, as it was clear from that AB and the Castillo walk that Prior had lost some of his command. But Farnsworth wasn't any good and the Marlins probably win the game even if he had taken Prior out then.

That was pretty good hitting by Pudge - in fact, most of the Marlins hitters in that innning had quality ABs too (particularly Castillo - lots of foul balls before coaxing ball 4).
Thomas - Friday, October 17 2003 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#88209) #
Anyone else catch this?

http://money.cnn.com/2003/10/16/news/companies/movie_fan/
National League Championship Series, Game 6 - 8 PM ET | 38 comments | Create New Account
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