It’s the first stop on the Reality Check Tour for Blue Jays prospects: Dunedin in the Florida State League, the highest A-Ball league in the system and one of the toughest hitters’ circuits around (.250/.327/.350, according to Michel Wolverton’s minor-league equivalencies, second-lowest in organized baseball, by a single percentage point, to the New York-Penn League). This is the first stage at which the wheat and the chaff say their goodbyes and promise to write each other often. Once a prospect graduates from Dunedin with good results, then you can start taking him a little more seriously going forward.
It was a good year for Dunedin: they won the FSL’s second-half pennant and defeated the Fort Myers Miracle in the first round of the league playoffs before falling to the St. Lucie Mets in the finals. It was also a year of remarkably high turnover: in addition to the players listed below, 2003 D-Jays included Dustin McGowan, David Bush, Russ Adams, Tyrell Godwin and Adam Peterson; those players will be profiled in tomorrow’s New Haven edition. Those are the guys who’ve already graduated; among the current class, there are two or three honours students sure to move up quickly, and a larger group of maybes and hopefuls that could yet break through and become serious prospects for the organization. Here we go:
Neomar Flores, SP, 21
7-8, 4.78, 29 G, 18 GS, 111 IP, 108 H, 44 BB, 78 K, 8 HR, 16.1% KBF
I worried last year about Flores’ 2002 innings total (159) for a 20-year-old who stands 6’1” and weighs 160 lbs in a rainstorm. I’m not saying that’s necessarily why he struggled so much this season after a successful 2002 at Charleston (8-10, 3.28). If anything, his KBF rate (a whelming 18.1%) last year in the Sally presaged the troubles he’d face this season. More distressingly, his walks remained about the same in 48 fewer IP. I actually do think Neomar was worked too hard in ‘02. But Flores is still very young, and High-A has always been the first real test for a prospect. His stuff isn’t dominant – a fastball that hovers around 90, plus a fine change and decent breaking stuff. He should be back in Dunedin next season, but with the wave of very talented pitchers rising up from Auburn and Charleston, Flores may find himself forced to the bullpen, or worse. It’s not a good time to tread water as a Blue Jay pitching prospect.
Jesse Harper, RHP, 22
13-4, 2.54, 26 G, 24 GS, 131 IP, 112 H, 31 BB, 100 K, 4 HR, 18.8% KBF
The organization might not have thought too much about Jesse Harper when 2003 began; by the time it ended, he was its Howard Webster Award winner for being Dunedin’s best player over the course of the season. That’s not necessarily a sign of greatness to come – last year’s HWA winners included Gary Burnham, Justin Owens and Mike Snyder – but it was certainly more than the Jays had bargained for. Harper doesn’t overpower you – he throws around 90 mph with a slider, curve, change and occasional splitter – but he gets enough strikeouts to keep batters honest and he really keeps the ball in the park (just 11 HRs in 310 minor-league innings). His peripheral numbers, admittedly, are borderline – he can’t get by with any more walks or any fewer K’s, and hits allowed is a notoriously unstable stat. He could get brained at AA, or he could continue to rise to his level of competition, as he’s done so far in his career. My money is on the latter, though; his age and his control both make me think he has the potential to be useful. If he has a Gassneresque season at Manchester, then we’re definitely on to something here.
Aaron Hill, SS, 21
Dunedin 2003
119 AB, .286/.343/.345, 26 R, 7 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 11 RBI, 11 BB, 10 K, 1 SB, 0 CS
Auburn 2003
122 AB, .361/.446/.492, 22 R, 4 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 34 RBI, 16 BB, 20 K, 1 SB, 1 CS
I don’t know who the Blue Jays are going to choose with their first-round draft pick next June – they choose 16th, by the way – but I think I can safely bet the mortgage payment that it won’t be a shortstop. Following the selection of UNC’s Russ Adams in his first draft, JP Ricciardi went to another major college in 2003 and came away with LSU’s Aaron Hill, a solid, compact (5’11”, 195 lbs) infielder with an accurate arm and good instincts around the bag, less speed but more pop than Adams. Offensively, he’s a gap hitter who’s going to add more power as he gets stronger, but will never be a slugger. Like his predecessor Adams, he’s an on-base machine who takes the pitches he doesn’t want and drives the ones he does. Defensively, some scouts think his range will eventually make him better suited for third base than shortstop, but JP has said that Hill is a shortstop until he proves otherwise.
Baseball America drew a comparison to Rich Aurilia, while JP said Hill reminded him a little of Craig Biggio. I don’t have a specific player comp in mind, but I do think he’ll be the kind of guy who does almost everything – hit, walk, hit for extra bases, field, score and lead – very well. Like Adams, Hill is not going to be a superstar player, but he will be a very solid contributor with both the bat and the glove. He should eventually wind up hitting 15 HRs a year in the bigs, probably with an average in the .275-.290 range, strong OBP numbers and extremely reliable defence. After ripping up the NY-Penn League, Aaron did very well at Dunedin, with an especially impressive BB/K rate, and kept his batting average high. Like Adams, expect Hill to start 2003 in the Florida State League and make a mid-season leap to Double-A. It’s not a stretch at all to suggest Adams and Hill could be the double-play combo and the 1-2 hitters for your 2006 Toronto Blue Jays.
Maikel Jova, OF, 22
Dunedin 2003
240 AB, .271/291/.383, 34 R, 12 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 24 RBI, 6 BB, 42 K, 0 SB, 1 CS
Charleston 2003
216 AB, .292/.320/.394, 19 R, 15 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 28 RBI, 8 BB, 21 K, 6 SB, 2 CS
There are only four players active in the majors or minors from San Jose, Costa Rica, and Jova is the best of them. Damning with faint praise? Sort of. Jova has impressive power potential, and his doubles are starting to turn into homers; at 6’0”, 195 lbs, he could still find some more room for muscle. On the flip side, 2003 was his third straight year at Charleston, and though he continued to hit, his strike-zone command is atrocious. Put it this way: that 8/21 rate in Charleston was his best ever; his career BB/K rate is 38/246 in 1,638 ABs (that’s one walk every 43 at-bats, for those keeping score at home). Jova will not thrive in this organization with a .300 OBP, but he has the tools to make a slugging impact if he can learn the strike zone. We’ll see what 2004 brings in that regard.
Brandon League, RHP, 20
Dunedin 2003
4-3, 4.75, 13 G, 12 GS, 66 IP, 76 H, 20 BB, 34 K, 3 HR, 11.4% KBF
Charleston 2003
2-3, 1.91, 12 G, 12 GS, 70 IP, 58 H, 18 BB, 61 K, 1 HR, 22.0% KBF
You couldn’t have asked for a better illustration of the chasm that exists between Low-A and High-A. League’s GS, IP and (happily) BB numbers were virtually identical between the two; everything else got seriously ugly. But this should be considered perfectly normal: Brandon, the club’s 2001 2nd-round pick, has far and away the club’s best fastball, a sizzler consistently in the mid-to-high 90s that some reports have clocked in the triple-digits. Moreover, contrary to my earlier mistaken belief, that sucker moves: League fires his nasty stuff from a low ¾ angle, producing tremendous sinking action that breaks hitters’ bats or blows them away. So what’s the problem? His breaking stuff, of course, which hasn’t yet caught up with his heater. His change-up is not too bad, but his slider is nowhere near ready to get batters out.
League is just two years out of high school, though, and he won’t turn 21 till March, so he has lots of time yet to learn some good off-speed stuff. If he does develop a good power slider and his change-up continues to improve, then you’re looking at a future ace. But keeping in mind his age, his currently limited repertoire and the constant shadow of injury that hangs over every young pitcher, you’d be wise to proceed with caution, as the Jays will. I think League will spend all of 2003 at Dunedin come good times or bad, learning the pro game on and off the field. Cross your fingers that this young man’s tremendous potential will be fulfilled.
Justin Maureau, LHP, 22
3-4, 4.84, 38 G, 3 GS, 48 IP, 55 H, 28 BB, 35 K, 0 HR, 15.4% KBF
This time last year, the 2002 draft looked awfully good, with guys like Maureau and Chad Pleiness leading the way. If we can take anything away from Justin’s very difficult season in Dunedin, it’s to approach any short-season results (including those posted by your 2003 Auburn Doubledays) with caution. Maureau reportedly has the best curveball in the organization; the fact that he’s left-handed just makes that all the more intriguing. But it didn’t help him much this year. Justin spent some time on the DL in April and May, but neither beforehand nor afterwards did he meet with any success. I’ve tried in vain to find any explanations; if I had to guess, his slight build (a Floresesque 6’1, 170) and his unexciting fastball (high 80s) left him without the power needed to set up his killer curveball. Many people projected Maureau as an ideal LOOGY, and that may yet be his destiny, though it seems a shame to pigeonhole a guy so early. He deserves, and will get, another chance; don’t write him off yet.
Derrick Nunley, RHP, 23
3-2, 1 Sv, 2.20, 42 G, 0 GS, 57 IP, 41 H, 36 BB, 64 K, 1 HR, 26.0% KBF
The mystery man of Dunedin. I’ve kept half an eye on him all season to see what Nunley was up to. A ’99 high school draftee at 19, he’s struggled throughout his brief career, and even last year was 0-3, 4.81. Interestingly, his numbers then were nearly identical to his numbers this year, in terms of IP and walks; but in 2003, he allowed 10 fewer hits, struck out 13 more batters, and reduced his HRs allowed from 6 to 1. The result: effectiveness, though he’s still plenty wild (add 12 WPs to that line). I’m not sure what will become of him – at his age, he needs to get his command straightened out in a hurry – but anyone who strikes out more than a batter an inning in the FSL deserves serious attention. I don’t have a read on his stuff – I imagine it’s pretty nasty – or on his future; right now, he looks like a slightly older version of....
Vince Perkins, RHP, 22
Dunedin 2003
7-6, 2.45, 18 G, 17 GS, 84 IP, 58 H, 53 BB, 69 K, 1 HR, 19.6% KBF
Charleston 2003
3-1, 1.83, 8 GS, 8 GS, 44 IP, 19 H, 22 BB, 60 K, 1 HR, 35.7% KBF
And here’s Part Two of our Low A – High A Chasm Illustration. Perkins was at one point near the top of Baseball America’s Hot Prospects List while ripping the Sally to shreds – he was the last pitcher to give up a run in 2003, throwing 27 1/3 shutout innings to start the year – but the spotlight faded upon his promotion to Dunedin. Frankly, though, the warning signs were there at Charleston, where despite his unquestioned dominance he was still walking a batter every two innings; that just got worse in the Florida State League. You can almost see the 20 or so batters who refused to chase a fastball out of the strike zone, or who laid off a slider away.
Vince has tremendous stuff – his two-seam fastball is regularly in the mid-90s, and his slider and change-up are pretty good too – but he’s not going anywhere until he can control it all and cut down his pitch counts, and he’s frankly not close to that right now. The name John Wetteland keeps coming up in Perkins discussions, and unlike Nunley, who’s already in the pen, Vince hasn’t yet had a chance to try harnessing his control in short-inning bursts. Others, though, compare him to his friend and high school classmate Rich Harden, with whom Perkins stays in close contact; Harden too has struggled with his control, and actually credits Perkins with helping him through it. Perkins himself has said that it’s all about the approach to the at-bat, trying to get the batter to hit a grounder or flyout rather than to throw the perfect pitch that nets you strike three. Knowing it and doing it are two different things, but at least he has the idea.
Hard throwers will always get an extra chance or two than will control/finesse guys, and Perkins throws hard. Watch to see where he begins 2004: if it’s in the Dunedin rotation, the organization is giving him one more crack at starting, which at his age and development would be the better idea. But if it’s the bullpen at Dunedin or even Manchester, and the command arrives at the same time, he could move up in a big hurry.
Chad Pleiness, RHP, 23
7-8, 3.41, 25 G, 24 GS, 129 IP, 124 H, 60 BB, 89 K, 9 HR, 9 HB, 15 WP, 15.8% KBF
The thing is, hits allowed by a pitcher can be one of the most misleading statistics out there (cf. anything on BIP average). Last year at Auburn, Big Bad Chad allowed only 48 hits in 74 innings, giving the impression of dominance; but he walked 32 that season and struck out just 70, less than one per inning. These portents were fulfilled this year at Dunedin, where Pleiness walked a batter every two innings and posted a very poor strikeout rate. When considering a pitching prospect, the best approach is to look first at his BB/K, then at his K/IP, then his league, then his age; you’ll usually learn most of what you need right there. Pleiness is a large (6’6”, 235 lb) young man who, although 23 already, is only lately come to baseball. He’s a former basketball player and I suspect his size means his mechanics tend to get messed up and hurt his effectiveness. His fastball hangs out a few degrees above and below 90, but his curve is solid and his change is decent too. If he can keep his body under control, he could improve measurably on 2003. Like Maureau, who also was a high-round draft pick in 2002, it’s way too early to give up on Pleiness.
Mike Snyder, 1B, 22
496 AB, .268/.356/.371, 70 R, 24 2B, 0 3B, 9 HR, 75 RBI, 66 BB, 113 K, 6 SB, 0 CS
How can a 2nd-round draft pick who stands 6’5”, 230 and bats from the left side be a virtually anonymous presence in an organization? Well, like this. Snyder was the MVP last season at Charleston, but it was his first good year since becoming a Jay farmhand upon his 1999 selection from a California high school. A former third baseman, he switched corners when his size made it apparent he couldn’t manage the position; all well and good, but you need a serious power bat to justify your presence at first base, and Snyder has had difficulty delivering on that. Granted that the Florida State League can sap your power, Mike wasn’t in the league’s top ten in any offensive category but RBI, and we know how much weight JP places on that stat. Now, he’s still young, and the 24 doubles presage more power to come, and the walks are certainly great. But that’s a lot of K’s to pay for just 9 round-trippers, and I don’t imagine things are going to get any better at Double-A. No need to pencil in Snyder’s name on the list of possible Carlos Delgado replacements just yet.
Jamie Vermilyea, RHP, 21
Dunedin 2003
0-2, 2 Sv, 2.49, 9 G, 0 GS, 21 IP, 21 H, 2 BB, 25 K, 1 HR, 29.0% KBF
Auburn 2003
5-1, 0 Sv, 2.37, 9 G, 2 GS, 30 IP, 22 H, 5 BB, 53 K, 0 HR, 44.5% KBF
Hello. There’s not much more to be said about this guy than what’s come out already – the superstar-sleeper of the 2003 draft class – but here’s a few quick observations. Don’t make too much of the New Mexico influence; there’s no question that Vermilyea’s college numbers were inflated by the thin desert air, but that’s not the reason the Jays took him and that’s not why he’s been utterly dominating in his pro debut. Jamie’s fastball may rarely crack 90, but he fires it from a ¾-ish angle that gives it tremendous movement; coupled with a very sharp slider and an assortment of other pitches, he has more than enough weapons to make a lot of hitters look foolish, which is how he spent his summer (a 7/78 BB/K rate in 51 IP). His future – is he a starter or a reliever? – is still up in the air; you know the club would prefer to harness this arm for the rotation, but Vermilyea has stated a fondness for bullpen work. Whatever – if he keeps pitching like this, the Jays will be happy just to have him in uniform, and to move him up in a hurry despite his age. Finally, remember the small sample size caveats: David Bush pitched this few innings last year, and went on to great things. But Jordan DeJong pitched this few innings too.
Jason Waugh, OF, 23
Dunedin 2003
286 AB, .273/.344/.409, 32 R, 14 2B, 2 3B, 7 HR, 38 RBI, 32 BB, 61 K 0 SB, 5 CS
Charleston 2003
139 AB, .209/.262/.295, 18 R, 7 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 10 BB, 30 K, 2 SB, 0 CS
Pitchers like League and Perkins leave Charleston for Dunedin and go into the tank; a hitter like Waugh takes the same route and blossoms into a star. The Florida State League is a better sluggers’ league, but in terms of BA and OBP, it’s pretty much identical to the South Atlantic League. What gives? There’s a very good reason for this seemingly contradictory state of affairs, and you’ll find it written out in detail on the back of this paper. Waugh probably caught the Jays’ eye in his senior year at St. Mary’s College in California, where he hit .399 with 14 homers to go along with speed, hustle and sparkling defensive play in centerfield. Keep in mind, though, that the West Coast Conference in which St. Mary’s played sported a collective 5.93 ERA that year.
Score one for the Blue Jays’ minor-league instructors, though. A self-professed first-ball, fastball hitter in college who rarely walked, Waugh has become somewhat more selective as a professional, now sporting a 74/141 BB/K rate in 680 career minor-league ABs. But he has also developed a new problem: for a guy who never hit below .340 in college, this year’s .273 at Dunedin represented a professional high, and he’s striking out way too often. Waugh has good power and athleticism, but it’s taking him a long time to put it all together. And at 23, the clock is ticking. If he can make more contact going forward and find a consistent power stroke, then Waugh may blossom into something. If not, he can change his name to Evelyn and seek out Sandy (Anais) Nin to set up a Florida State League Book Club.
Tim Whittaker, C, 24
287 AB, .282/.353/.369, 34 R, 22 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 41 RBI, 28 BB, 65 K
Pro: Whittaker is yet another catching prospect for the Blue Jays, a solid 6’0”, 205 lbs behind the plate who was an All-America selection as catcher in his senior year with the University of South Carolina, hitting for average and power; he’s steadily advanced one level every year in the organization, never hitting below .280 with an OBP of .350 at any stop. Con: Whittaker is one of almost a dozen catching prospects in an organization replete with them, who despite his reputation for power has hit just 7 home runs in almost 700 AB as a professional, yet has struck out more than twice as often as he’s walked the last two seasons and whose BB/AB rate is barely at the organization minimum of 1 in 10; not renowned for his defence, he’ll be 25 on Opening Day next year and can hope to be no higher than Double-A at that time. Prognosis? With a break here or there, he could make it to the big leagues as a second- or third-string catcher someday, but no more than that and almost certainly not with the Blue Jays. Hmm: this could be a whole new style of minor-league review for me…..
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20031016111222999