Florida Marlins (Brad Penny) at New York Yankees (David Wells)
Both teams used up their best pitchers in thrilling, high-scoring LCS seventh games. There's no inherent advantage to either staff; it's going to be an interesting weekend.
It's possible that David Wells will be off form because he pitched a relief inning Thursday, but the Babe-worshipping Boomer, on the game's biggest stage in the House That Ruth Built, is more likely to rise to the occasion. The corpulent lefty was 8-2 with a 3.40 ERA in the postseason before this year, and allowed a single run in each of his two playoff starts (the clincher against the Twins and a huge win in Fenway) before that homer to David Ortiz the other night. He's not completely unknown to Marlins hitters; Pudge has a fine 10-for-27 mark and .962 OPS, Conine is 9-for-38, but three homers raise his OPS to .828, and Encarnacion is 6-for-22 with an .895 OPS.
Brad Penny drew the short straw for the Fish. Ineffective (he was replaced after four innings on the short end of a 4-1 score) as the Game 1 starter in the NLDS, the big righty was banished to the bullpen for the rest of that series. In the deciding Game 4, he blew the save for Willis, but the Marlins rallied after Penny's 1.2 innings of work. Given another chance to start in Game 2 of the NLCS, Penny was absolutely horrible, giving up seven hits, two walks and seven earned runs in two innings. He turned in a shaky inning of relief in Game 4, then did get the job done in his Game 7 appearance, though I still don't understand why he, not Beckett, was awarded the decision. So he's officially 1-1, but his playoff ERA is 10.24 and let's just say his confidence isn't sky high.
I've made my series prediction elsewhere, and I think Game One will set the tone. The Yankees hitters will knock Penny out early, and the Marlins will be playing catchup. If Boomer weakens after five or six innings, there may be a narrow window of opportunity for Pudge and his mates, as I don't think Rivera will be asked for more than three outs. The second-best Marlins pitcher throughout the postseason, with five scoreless relief appearances, a solid start and a 1.74 ERA, has been Carl Pavano. He'll probably have to hold the fort after Penny departs, but I think he'll have more trouble with the Yankees than he did with the Giants or the Cubs.
If you get annoyed by the TV talking heads, Jon Miller and Joe Morgan are calling the game on the radio. Play ball!
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