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The end-of-season minor-league wrap-ups continue, and today's contestant (thanks to Jonny German!) is an interesting site called On Deck Baseball Prospects. The site rates organizations from top to bottom, which is very unusual: most places don't pay attention to any teams below High-A (here are the league rankings), let alone go into the depths of each organization (I mean, that's more than 200 individual clubs to keep track of). The site also has the right idea about contextualizing the results: players receive bonuses or demerits if they're young or old for the league, account is taken for leagues that are more power-friendly than others, strikeouts for hitters are not punished, and extra points are awarded if the player is close to the majors. All sensible approaches to incorporate into a minor-league review.

However, I think there are still some problems with On Deck's system. For one thing, the tools they've chosen to use are questionable: AB, R(?), H, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI(??), BB (no K at all?), and SB (no CS?) for hitters, IP, H, ER, BB, and K (no HR or KBF?) for pitchers. These are very traditional stats to use in an exercise that usually demands more sophistication. For another, the points totals seem arbitrary; I'm not suggesting that they release their formula, but it's hard to know how seriously to take the points totals when you have only the faintest inkling how they were arrived at (e.g., are doubles worth more or less than walks? Are ratios like BB/K and K/IP being used?). To evaluate the evaluation, you need to know more about how the various factors and varaiables are being crunched together. Finally, I have to wonder about the system if it's producing results in the Blue Jays position player rankings like these:

7. Luke Hetherington, Pulaski
10. Gabe Gross, Syracuse

5. Nick Thomas, Pulaski
13. John-Ford Griffin, New Haven

9. Carlo Cota, Auburn
20. Russ Adams, New Haven

15. Yuber Rodriquez, Pulaski
34. Tyrell Godwin, New Haven

And so forth. The rankings, far from favouring players close to the majors, seem to do the opposite. I'm the biggest Vito Chiaravalotti booster out there, but in no way is he the #2 hitting prospect in the organization (and ditto for Robinson Diaz at #1).

Similarly for the pitchers:

3. Vince Perkins, Dunedin
7. David Bush, New Haven

6. Jesse Harper, Dunedin
9. Jason Arnold, Syracuse

I like On Deck's approach and I admire anyone who'll go into this much detail in ranking all of an organization's players. But as someone who's relatively familiar with the Jays system, I can safely say that reality simply isn't according with many of the results produced by the formula. I would encourage On Deck to keep refining their approach and their tools, because the more good information we have about prospects, the better; but right now, it surely needs some work.

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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Coach - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 09:58 AM EST (#14233) #
Interesting, and an impressive amount of work, but not to be taken seriously. That's not to suggest that On Deck should give up; Jordan is right to encourage them to refine their approach and their tools. At a glance, I'd say that the secret formula should be adjusted to better reflect quality of competition -- Scott Rex does say "I take points away the further you are from the Majors," but obviously, not enough. Though the individual league ratings aren't bad, the Jays' organizational report is badly skewed toward players who put up big numbers at the lowest levels.
Mike D - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 10:58 AM EST (#14234) #
Guys, I'm not sure you scrolled down to the bottom of that page. After the author lists his "formula" results, he then has a first team through fifth team of organizational prospects, and he then concludes with an overall top prospects ranking.

His overall rankings -- i.e., not the ones based on the formula -- are much more in line with our rankings here at Batter's Box. The low-minors bias disappears.
Mike D - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 10:59 AM EST (#14235) #
Here's his Top 20, which is an entirely legitimate list:

1. Dustin McGowan, RHP
2. Alexis Rios, OF
3. Jason Arnold, RHP
4. Vince Perkins, RHP
5. Brandon League, RHP
6. Guillermo Quiroz, C
7. Francisco Rosario, RHP
8. David Bush, RHP
9. John-Ford Griffin, OF
10. Gabe Gross, OF
11. Aaron Hill, SS
12. Josh Banks, RHP
13. Russ Adams, SS
14. Jayson Werth, OF
15. Kevin Cash, C
16. Edward Rodriguez, RHP
17. Vinnie Chulk, RHP
18. Jamie Vermilyea, RHP
19. Kurt Isenberg, LHP
20. D.J. Hanson, RHP
_Jordan - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 11:21 AM EST (#14236) #
Ah, that's more like it -- thanks, Mike! This does make much more sense -- I have to wonder, then, about the extent to which their rating formula is useful at all. It appears that they make numerous "adjustments" between the raw number rankings and the final list, which is a thoroughly sensible one. I'll admit I stopped reading soon after "7. Luke Hetherington."

The overall list is not bad. I would put Bush much higher, drop Perkins lower till he can find his command, bring Russ Adams higher, and definitely push Quiroz into the Top Three. And Rosario, for all his one-time promise, doesn't belong on any prospect list (let along seventh place) until he gets back onto a mound. But otherwise, I have only minor quibbles with placement; this complete list is far better.
_Jonny German - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 11:38 AM EST (#14237) #
I agree that the On Deck formula appears a little off when it comes to comparing players across various levels, and knowing almost nothing about the formula makes it difficult to evaluate, let alone buy into. But you're missing one important thing: Below all the numerical ratings, he gives a "Top 40 Prospects" list for the league or team in question. These do not strictly follow the numbers he generates - he specifically states that they are based on his personal opinion. In other words, he applies a final fudge factor to adjust for quirks in the formula.

Here are his Top 10 Blue Jays:
1. Dustin McGowan, RHP
2. Alexis Rios, OF
3. Jason Arnold, RHP
4. Vince Perkins, RHP
5. Brandon League, RHP
6. Guillermo Quiroz, C
7. Francisco Rosario, RHP
8. David Bush, RHP
9. John-Ford Griffin, OF
10. Gabe Gross, OF

That's a pretty reasonable group of 10, and personally I don't see the point in getting all squirrelly about the exact order of a Top 10 prospects list. Here are the players missing from the On Deck list Top 10 as compared to Jordan's prediction of BA's forthcoming list (Oct 15 Alexis Rios thread): Aaron Hill (11th according to On Deck), Jayson Werth (14th), Russ Adams (13th), DJ Hanson (20th). Taking the place of those four on the On Deck Top 10 are Vince Perkins, Brandon League, Francisco Rosario, and John-Ford Griffin. I'd just say that's an optimistic take in the case of the three pitchers and the hurdles still ahead of them, but not indefensible.
_Jonny German - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 11:38 AM EST (#14238) #
Oops, looks like Mike D beat me to it.
_Jordan - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 11:56 AM EST (#14239) #
While we're on the subject, I might as well throw my hat into the ring: here are my own personal Top Ten Blue Jays Prospects as of today (this can and will change over the course of the winter):

1. Alexis Rios
2. Guillermo Quiroz
3. David Bush
4. Dustin McGowan
5. Gabe Gross
6. Jayson Werth
7. Russ Adams
8. Jason Arnold
9. John-Ford Griffin
10. Adam Peterson

There's very little separating prospects 1 through 5, and it's heavily weighted towards players at AA and AAA. In fact, there are no A-Ball players on this list; if I were to make a separate A-Ball ranking, it would probably look like this:

1. Aaron Hill
2. Josh Banks
3. Vince Perkins
4. Brandon League
5. Jamie Vermilyea
6. Rodney Medina
7. DJ Hanson
8. Vito Chiaravalotti
9. Kurt Isenberg
10. Robinson Diaz
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 12:01 PM EST (#14240) #
Jordan, you must be a heckuva nice guy. "Thoroughly sensible" despite rating Arnold, League and Perkins ahead of Quiroz? I like all of these pitchers at least to some degree, but they've had their ups and downs and none compare with a 21 year old catcher with fine defensive skills who's just dominated double A offensively.

How about "while the ratings seem to favour starting pitchers, they do seem to reflect a reasonable appreciation of the value of players at different levels of the organization"?
_Jordan - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 12:07 PM EST (#14241) #
Jordan, you must be a heckuva nice guy

Yes. Yes, I am. :-)
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 12:07 PM EST (#14242) #
Jordan, not only a heckuva nice guy, but astute. My top 5 accords with yours. I like Aaron Hill and Josh Banks for two of the 6-10 spots in place of Griffin and Peterson, and Shaun Marcum and Juan Peralta definitely make my A ball list.
Craig B - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 12:33 PM EST (#14243) #
Mike sez

Jordan, you must be a heckuva nice guy

Jordan sez

Yes. Yes, I am. :-)

Craig sez

Nice guy, but everything he says is false.
robertdudek - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 01:39 PM EST (#14244) #
There should be separate lists for pitchers and position players.
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 01:49 PM EST (#14245) #
Slight hijack. It was nightmare for the Javelinas who lost 15-14 in the AFL yesterday. Russ Adams went 0-3 with 2 walks, but made a key error that led to 5 unearned runs in the ninth. Jordan DeJong went 1.2 innings and gave up 4 earned runs on 1 hit and 5 walks. Ouch.
_R Billie - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 01:59 PM EST (#14246) #
I listened to parts of the game from MLB.com's archive and it sounded like DeJong got ahead of a lot of batters pretty quick but still lost them. I think he has a Corey Thurman syndrome where he has just one plus pitch.
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 02:18 PM EST (#14247) #
R. Billie, I'm not sure if that's what is wrong with De Jong. His control record last year in college and in the Pioneer League was quite good, and he seems to have completely lost it at all levels this year.

I suppose you might be right. This year, the organization might have asked him to learn a new pitch (a split?), and this might be a source of the problem.

In any event, he'll be 25 in April, and as he hasn't yet succeeded at double A, you'd have to say that he's a longshot at this point.
_R Billie - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 02:33 PM EST (#14248) #
Well a 23 year old fooling 18-20 year olds in Rookie ball is different from fooling older batters at higher levels. His walk rate and K rate taking such a hit seems to suggest he never really threw that many strikes to begin with and he was able to get a lot of players to chase out of the zone. Not so it seems at the higher levels.

He could be a bit too K happy. I remember a lot of 1-2 and 0-2 counts for him yesterday but his attempted out pitch whatever it was just wasn't working. I'd equate it to Escobar who had a tendancy to get ahead and then stubbornly throw 3 or 4 splitters in a row to try for a K instead of finishing the at bat.
_A - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 03:07 PM EST (#14249) #
Quick hijack: the Yankees have begun their World Series enduced killing spree. The first to go was hitting coach, Rick Down.
_Scott - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 03:36 PM EST (#14250) #
As well yesterday, Team USA beat Team Canada 5-1 with Gross hitting another home run. I believe that was his third in 14 games.
_jason - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 05:50 PM EST (#14251) #
A list of the top 40 prospects, and not one left handed pitcher.

I also noted on the home page that this site has Escobar rated the number 3 free agent starter, behind Colon and Petite and ahead of Millwood. Kiss the home town discount goodbye.

jason
_Jordan - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 07:41 PM EST (#14252) #
A list of the top 40 prospects, and not one left handed pitcher.

19. Kurt Isenberg, LHP

Also, I think Dave Gassner certainly deserves a Top 40 ranking, more so than Russell Savickas, for instance.
_jason - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 08:34 PM EST (#14253) #
Oops, sorry.
jason
_Ray - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 10:40 PM EST (#14254) #
I was just wondering exactly how these player ratings are ranked? like can somebody tell me how the system works? the way i see it, it is totally based on stats and not skills or performance? what is the formula for this calculation? anyone know?
_benum - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 10:47 PM EST (#14255) #
Congrats to Wells and Delgado on the Silver Slugger Awards.
_Ray - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 10:59 PM EST (#14256) #
Yeah i forgot to mention that i think the prospect list is a huge crock. like how can hetherington and cota be ahead of 1st rounder, 2 million dollar man soon too be big leaguer Gabe Gross. the system is a joke. so i think i speak for everyone when i say there should be a new one with a better method of judgement. give us a break.
_logan - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 11:19 PM EST (#14257) #
This guy uses RBI as one of the stats to measure hitters. That pretty much tells you all you need to know about the site.
_Jonny German - Wednesday, October 29 2003 @ 11:28 PM EST (#14258) #
Two suggestions Ray:

a) Read the whole thread, you'll find the deficiencies of the On Deck rating system have already been discussed, as well as the fact that the formula is not explained.

b) Try tackling the task of rating ~5,000 minor leaguers yourself before offering such rude criticism of someone else's work. While the rating system does appear to need some work, this guy has done a respectable job of listing the Top 40 Blue Jay prospects, and he is not specifically a Blue Jay fan - i.e. we can expect he'll do a reasonable job of ranking the Top 40 for all 30 Major League Baseball organizations. How many sites do that, never mind for free?
Pistol - Friday, October 31 2003 @ 12:48 PM EST (#14259) #
http://premium.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2447
BP has a column on Rios, Gross and JFG today. I believe it's a free feature.

Click on my name to read it.
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