Steve Z has brought us a troika of interesting columns this morning, all dealing with how the Blue Jays are coping with Hurricane George (and, to a lesser extent, Typhoon Theo) in this tumultuous off-season. From the Hijack Central 3 thread:
John Donovan of SI.com wrote this column, while there are two surprisingly good local columns today: one from Dave Perkins of the Star, and the other from Ken Fidlin of the Sun.
I'll add this one, in a similar vein, from ESPN's Buster Olney. All these columns have one thing in common: a hopeful confidence that the Yankees and Red Sox are spending their way to short-term gain and long-term oblivion.
Before we get too far along, we really should accept one thing: by the time this off-season is over, Boston and New York will be the prohibitive co-favourites to win next year's World Series. The Yankees' projected lineup compares favourably with any starting nine fielded in the Bronx since a guy named Ruth roamed right field, and more pitching help is undoubtedly on the way. The Red Sox had a record-breaking offence last year, and their pitching staff is going to be almost twice as good this season. Both franchises have minor-league systems that are just about out of gas, but there are a few valuables down there that can be dealt, along with debt relief, for more help next July. So le's not kid ourselves: Toronto should expect another third-place finish next season, even though the team will have taken giant steps forward and could reasonably be asked to win 90 games (though a Giambi hamstring pull and Pedro shoulder pain are never far away, and youneverknow what can happen).
All that said, I'd much rather place money on the 2005 Jays than on either of the other two eastern juggernauts that season, and by 2006 I'll be expecting a deep playoff run. The Yankees won't pay for their largesse this year, but by spring '05, a lot of these expensive acquisitions are going to hit their best-before date, and the homegrown talent (Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada, even Derek Jeter) has long since peaked. Conceivably, George could swallow this $200 million and go buy another $200 million worth of stars, but conceivably I could become the star of Loft Story; it's not worth worrying about. What is true is that the latest Steinbrenneresque moves have more than a whiff of the 1980s about them. The smarter Yankee fans, while of course enjoying this latest outburst, are also thinking back worriedly to two onimous words: Steve Kemp. History never repeats itself, but it does move in patterns, and George's tendency to buy big names rather than expected performance is looking a tad familiar. The Yanks won't crash and burn -- they're too rich and too good for that -- but I'm going to state my belief right here that they won't win another World Series this decade.
The Red Sox are similar, but crucially different. They also acquired age and experience, but if you gave me the choice between Curt Schilling and Gary Sheffield, I'd take everyone's favourite Everquest player even if I didn't need the pitching. While the Yankees are taking on massive salaries, the Red Sox are trying to dump them (a la Manny Ramirez), and I think it's unlikely that they'll be making many more of these huge acquisitions (Alex Rodriguez would be a worthwhile exception). There are very few owner-GM-advisor combos out there better than John Henry, Theo Epstein and Larry Lucchino, not to mention the sagacity of Bill James in the background. Smart people and lots of money is a recipe for success that rarely goes wrong. But Boston has also cleaned out its farm system, except for Kevin Youkilis (who may be Wade Boggs or may be Scott Cooper) and Hanley Ramirez, who mostly projects as the next Juan Samuel. This team is not young either, and there are only going to be so many free agents to go around each winter.
Meanwhile, as Peter Gammons says, the Blue Jays' future keeps getting brighter: the bumper crop of JP draftees is rocketing closer to the majors. Roy Halladay will soon have guys like Dustin McGowan, David Bush and Jason Arnold in the rotation with him; Vernon Wells will be flanked by Alexis Rios and Gabe Gross in the outfield; Josh Phelps and Eric Hinske will be maybe the most fearsome corner-infield combo in the league. And the whole roster will be fielded each year for about what the Yanks committed to Sheffield a couple of days ago. All of this will be well underway by spring 2005, when the Jays will be burdened by no long-term deals and will have some more money to invest. Think back to the Jays' championship years: the big free-agent signings (Morris, Winfield, Stewart, Molitor) were the last pieces of the puzzle, not the first. They were brought in to complete the picture after the homegrown and trade-acquired players had laid the foundation. This strategy can still work: would the Marlins have won the 2003 World Series without free agent Ivan Rodriguez?
Now's the time for Jays fans to be quietly confident. There's no point in wringing our hands over what the competition is doing, and indeed, it's refreshing to see so many major mainstream columnists sensing that maybe the Yanks and Red Sox are boxing themselves in and that the Jays are on the verge of redefining the power structure in the East. At the same time, let's not expect that the Yanks and Sox will be eating crow this season, or that they still won't be very tough in 2005. But there's a change in the air, like the hint of spring in late February. The Jays and the rest of the league are being buffeted by the winter storms of 2003; but Toronto is better poised than almost anyone else to emerge safely once the winds have died down and the two storms have spent their fury.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20031203095924999