A couple years ago I was about 50/50 on these. Last year I picked 10 and got 8 right.

Perhaps a box contest?

Each person could pick 10 that they like and rank them in confidence from 1-10 (10 being highest) and the person with the high score wins great respect and admiration from the Bauxites. The losers will get hangnails.

I'll give it a go:

10 - Jays over 83
9 - Boston over 96.5
8 - Tampa under 69.5
7 - Seattle under 88.5
6 - Oakland over 89.5
5 - Cubs under 93
4 - Texas under 72
3 - Atlanta under 85
2 - Milwaukee over 66.5
1 - Detroit under 66.5

10 - Seattle under 88.5
9 - Baltimore under 81.5
8 - Mets under 81
7 - Reds under 72
6 - Astros over 90.5
5 - Red Sox over 96.5
4 - Marlins under 81.5
3 - Cubs under 93
2 - Pirates over 66.5
1 - Angels under 91.5

http://economics.about.com
I went 4 for 5 on the over/under last year, and I missed the Pirates by a game and a half, so I did pretty well. :)

The Jays should be 83 games, but I don't think it'll be the cakewalk a lot of people say it will be. With the Yankees, Red Sox, and an improved Orioles team in the division, my gut tells me the Jays won't win 90 this year.

I like the Expos over and the Rangers, Mets, Mariners, and Orioles under. Unlike last year, nothing on this list looks like easy money.

Cheers,

Mike

10 Sea 88.5 under
9 NYY 99.5 under
8 Tor 83 over
7 TB 69.5 under
6 LA 83 under
5 Bal 81.5 under
4 ChC 93 under
3 NYM 81 over
2 Min 85.5 under
1 Oak 89.5 over

Here were my NL predictions from 3 days ago:

#148912 Posted 03/01/2004 11:09 AM by Mike Green:

All right, Jonny. The NL figures to play about .495 ball this year. So I pencilled in some numbers, and then toggled them a bit.

Therefore: NL West- SF 86 wins, LA 86 wins, Az. 82 wins, SD 81 wins, Col. 71 wins. Rationale: old position players decline, younger position players improve. NL Central- Astros 94 wins, Cubs 92 wins, Cardinals 90 wins, Milwaukee 73 wins, Pittsburgh 69 wins, Cincinatti 58 wins. Rationale: the cream rises to the top. NL East- Philadelphia 94 wins, Atlanta 86 wins, Florida 81 wins, New York 77 wins, Montreal 72 wins. Rationale: Addition adds; subtraction subtracts.

Pretty darn similar to Bowman's. So, for Pistol's game:

10- Cincinnati under 72
9- Baltimore under 81.5
8- St. Louis over 85
7- Devil Rays over 69.5
6- Milwaukee over 66.5
5- Houston over 90.5
4- Boston over 96.5
3- Yankees under 99.5
2- Jays over 83
1- Seattle under 88.5

But, I don't bet, and neither should you.

10 - NYM under 81
9 - Sea under 88.5
8 - TB under 69
7 - Cle over 74
6 - Mil under 66.5
5 - ChC over 93
4 - StL under 85
3 - AZ under 83
2 - Tor over 83
1 - KC over 80

http://economics.about.com
But, I don't bet, and neither should you.

Thank you Captain Morality.

If you do bet, make sure to comparison shop a little. My favorite service is BoDog, and their lines are a bit different.

But as Leigh says, we don't endorse gambling.

Cheers,

Mike

Hey, Craig B. Five matches and five different teams on our list. No one seems to like the Mariners much.

Mike M,

BoDog has Alex Rodriguez at 7-2 to win the AL home run title and Carlos Delgado at 24-1. I guess the mass of bettors doesn't yet understand about park effects.

I still won't be betting, but I'm tempted :)

Thank you Captain Morality.

I originally read this as "Captain Mortality" which is a great name for a superhero.

Mike M-that site looks great. After spending this past weekend in Vegas, many of the hours spent sitting in the various sportsbooks, it was exciting to see so many bets on individual stats/players. All I saw all weekend was: Blue Jays 40-1.

Again, on BoDog, a fairly low over/under on Jays wins (82.5). Halladay was only 10-1 for leading the league in wins, with 5 guys ahead of him (Vazquez, Beckett, Schilling, Pedro, Prior). Not a whole lot of respect for the guy who's led the league over the last two years.

Guesses and stupid opinions:

10 - NYY under 99.5 Aged pitchers go to pieces
9 - Atl over 85 Still better than Philly w/Bowa
8 - Sea under 88.5 Warning: moron in charge
7 - Tor over 83 Div champs, the feel-good story of the summer
6 - Pit over 66.5 Good pitching
5 - LA under 83 Bad hitting
4 - Bal over 81.5 Kid pitchers make good
3 - Mtl over 73 Still much better than Bud's Brewers
2 - Det under 66.5
1 - Col under 73.5

I just did some quick math to see if there's a bias in the lines, and there very clearly is.

Aggregate wins predicted:
NL: 1295 (16 teams)
=80.9375 wins on average
AL: 1160.5 (14 teams)
=82.893 wins on average

Looking at both leagues together:
MLB: 2455.5 (30 teams)
=81.85 wins on average

Unless something goes dramatically wrong this season, there should be 2430 wins in the major leagues, meaning Bowman's is predicting 25.5 wins more than will actually occur. This only amounts to a 1.05% upward bias, but I'd think that's enough to make you consider under a better bet than over. Does anyone have insight into why they inflate the lines? Do people tend to bet over more than under, so they adjust it upwards to even the betting?

I did a quick count of the lines on the BoDog site Mike linked to, and it predicts 6 games less than Bowman's, namely 2449.5 wins in MLB this year.

Learned bauxites seem to intuitively understand what these numbers show, as the majority of our predictions are under (Pistol 7, Craig B 7, Jonny German 7, Mike Green 4, Mike H 6, 3RunHomer 5). Obviously we are only naming 10 of the 30 teams, so I'm not attempting to jab at Mike Green for his optimism, just thought it was an interesting trend.

10 - Houston over
9 - Montreal over
8 - NYM under
7 - Baltimore under
6 - Cincinnati under
5 - Oakland over
4 - Philly over
3 - Seattle over
2 - Colorado under
1 - STL over

I heartily endorse this event or product.

I'll be ya $3.82 I'm watching the Cubs/Giants game on ESPN.

That should be "bet." Sigh.

Captain Mortality? Yikes, that's a little close to the bone for a middle-aged man.

David, I had noticed Bowman's mild optimism. You'll notice that my choice with the highest degree of confidence was the Reds under. My estimate was a whopping 14 wins under Bowman's. Nothing else came close.

1. Atlanta over
2. Seattle under
3. Toronto over
4. San Diego over
5. White Sox under
6. Baltimore under
7. Pittsburg over
8. Montreal over
9. Los Angeles under
10. Houston over

Mike Green, my off-hand remark was in reference to your 4 unders, and yes, you do have unders as the top 2. No slight intended if any was perceived. Looking back at your predictions, you are closer to the mean of 81 wins per team than either Bowman's or BoDog. I again wonder out loud if the bookies are inflating the win over/unders a bit in light of betting tendencies. After all, nothing these Vegas bookies do is uncalculated.

I originally read this as "Captain Mortality" which is a great name for a superhero.

Mike Green is Craig B's superhero? What?

Do people tend to bet over more than under, so they adjust it upwards to even the betting?

I would think people tend to bet on their favourite / local team, and they tend to be over-optimistic about said team. I don't see anybody taking the under on the Jays yet... wait for Mick.

Looks like I'm all alone with my optimism for the Mets. My rationale, such as it is, is that their starting pitching will be better than most expect.

http://www.aarongleeman.com
Looks like I'm all alone with my optimism for the Mets. My rationale, such as it is, is that their starting pitching will be better than most expect.

Gleeman did a scaled down version of a game log for the Mets-Dodgers game yesterday. Granted I haven't done much reading on the Mets this offseason, Aaron's the first person to talk about them in a reasonably positive light. COMN.

I again wonder out loud if the bookies are inflating the win over/unders a bit in light of betting tendencies. After all, nothing these Vegas bookies do is uncalculated.

I didn't include the vigorish in these listings. I assume that it makes up for the discrepancy.

I love to gamble!

10. Jays over ( Pitching upgrades will lead to more wins)
9. Boston over ( the real team to beat even Arod less)
8. Oakland under (Zito gets hurt, Offence cant score,bullpen implodes)
7. Cubs over ( Im a believer)
6. Seattle 0ver (Still have great pitching, Bavasi trades for hitting)
5. Cleveland over ( the next blue jays, AL central is easier though)
4. Florida over ( Not a fluke)
3. Reds under ( Awful)
2. Detroit under ( still awful)
1. Anaheim under ( too high expectations in a tough division)

Unless something goes dramatically wrong this season, there should be 2430 wins in the major leagues, meaning Bowman's is predicting 25.5 wins more than will actually occur. This only amounts to a 1.05% upward bias, but I'd think that's enough to make you consider under a better bet than over. Does anyone have insight into why they inflate the lines? Do people tend to bet over more than under, so they adjust it upwards to even the betting?

The lines are meant to get equal action on both sides of the team being bet on. That's how they make their money. Since more people are optimistic about their team in the spring it'll almost always be over .500.

10. San Diego over
9. Colorado under
8. Houston over
7. Toronto over
6. Mets under
5. Detroit under
4. Cleveland over
3. Seattle under
2. Minnesota under
1. White Sox over

Not to be too partisan, but:

Baltimore 81.5 - Under. Not even close.
Yankees 99.5 - Under
Detroit 66.5 - Under
Seattle 88.5 - Under
Cubs 93 - Under
Cincinnati 72 - Under
Mets 81 - Under
Philadelphia 92.5 - Under
White Sox 82 - Under
Toronto 83 - Over. WAY over.

10. Montreal under
9. Houston under
8. Los Angeles over
7. Chicago Cubs under
6. Cincinnati over
5. Chicago White Sox over
4. Saint Louis over
3. Atlanta over
2. New York Yankess under
1. Kansas City under

I haven't looked at any one else's, so any similarities are coincidental:

10 - Seattle under 88.5
9 - Kansas City over 80
8 - Saint Louis over 85
7 - White Sox under 82.5
6 - Oakland over 89.5
5 - Milwaukee over 66.5
4 - Cubs under 93
3 - Atlanta over 85
2 - Toronto over 83
1 - Anaheim under 91.5

http://bbfl.scottlucas.com
Just to remind everyone, Batter's Box will be reprising its "Batter's Box Prediction Contest", aka Throwing Down the Gauntlet". I'll be posting it a few days before the season begins.

Whoops, forgot to order them:

10. Toronto 83 - Over. WAY over.
9. Baltimore 81.5 - Under. Not even close.
8. Yankees 99.5 - Under
7. Detroit 66.5 - Under
6. Seattle 88.5 - Under
5. Cubs 93 - Under
4. Cincinnati 72 - Under
3. Mets 81 - Under
2. Philadelphia 92.5 - Under
1. White Sox 82 - Under

Based on giddy pro-Jays optimism:

10. TOR (over)
9. NYY (under)
8. LA (under)
7. SEA (under)
6. BAL (under)
5. CHC (under)
4. TAM (under)
3. DET (under)
2. ARI (under)
1. MIN (over)

(I had to bracket those middle eight unders with an over, and I own Grant Balfour and Johann Santana, so what the hey ...

Sorry - forgot to put what the over/under is based on:

10. TOR 83.0 (over)
9.  NYY 99.5 (under)
8.  LA  83.0 (under)
7.  SEA 88.5 (under)
6.  BAL 81.5 (under)
5.  CHC 93.0 (under)
4.  TAM 69.5 (under)
3.  DET 66.5 (under)
2.  ARI 83.0 (under)
1.  MIN 85.5 (over)

10. Baltimore 81.5 UNDER (I'm def betting this in Vegas next week)
9. Montreal 73 Under
8. Milwaukee 66.5 Over
7. Seattle 88.5 Under
6. Colorado 73.5 Under
5. NY Mets 81 Over
4. Toronto 83 Over
3. Arizona 83 Under
2. Pittsburgh 66.5 Over
1. Cleveland 74.5 Over

10. Tor 83 over
9. Mtl 73 over
8. Det 66.5 under
7. Sea 88.5 under
6. Bal 81.5 under
5. NYY 99.5 under
4. NYM 81 under
3. KC 80 over
2. Fla 81.5 over
1. Cin 72 under

10. Seattle - under
9. Cincy - under
8. KC - over
7. NYY - under
6. Arizona - under
5. Toronto - over
4. Baltimore - under
3. White Sox - under
2. Cleveland - over
1. Montreal - over

Scott,

Speaking of the Gauntlet, did anyone ever figure out who won the 2003 version? I did well (6 of 8 playoff teams), but probably didn't win.

Mike H., I think Scott Lucas won last year. Since Lucas is now a member of the Cabal, however, one has to question the legitimacy of these results.

I won, so I have the honour of supervising this year's contest. Someone else will have to maintain this contest, if interested. The advent of the BBFL will occupy enough of my time as is.

Gitz is wrong about the existence of the Cabal, of which I am not a member (should it exist, which it does not)... but I note with no lack of irony that I probably will be getting married at the Austin Scottish Rite of Freemasonry theatre. But there is no cabal.

Lucas, that's excellent. Temples are usually great stages for a wedding.

And thanks for standing up for The Cabal, which as you quite correctly indicated, does not exist.

My two cents:

10. Detroit (under)
9. Anaheim (under)
8. Florida (over)
7. San Francisco (over)
6. Pittsburgh (over)
5. Houston (under)
4. San Diego (under)
3. Baltimore (under)
2. St. Louis (over)
1. Cleveland (over)

It's been one of those weeks; I'm joining the party late. Even when I was a betting man, it was only on horses, but this is like a free lottery ticket, so here goes:

10. Toronto (over)
9. Baltimore (under)
8. Oakland (over)
7. White Sox (under)
6. Detroit (under)
5. Anaheim (under)
4. Philly (over)
3. Cardinals (over)
2. Royals (over)
1. Seattle (under)

As always, I don't claim to be scientific. There's a great deal of personal bias in these picks.

As opposed to Coach, my list is completely scientific. I ran the teams over a bunson burner, under a microscope, and through a spectrometer. Here's my scientific list with no bias whatsoever. That's the objectivity you get when you go to a Cristian scientist as opposed to a Christian scientist.

Boston (over)
Toronto (over)
Houston (way over)
Yankees (under)
St.Louis (under)
Kansas City (over)
ChiSox (under)
Texas (under)
Colorado (over)
Milwaukee (way under)

I ran the teams over a bunson burner, under a microscope, and through a spectrometer.

I did this last year. Incidentally, the average baseball team is about 0.35% potassium.

Incidentally, the average baseball team is about 0.35% potassium.

You'd think it would be greater with the amount of players that come from banana republics in the Caribbean.

Here's my list, though I don't bet on baseball (or on anything).

10 - Bal under 81.5 (bwah hah hah hah)
9 - Atl over 85
8 - Tor over 83
7 - SF over 85
6 - NYM under 81
5 - KC under 80
4 - ChW over 82.5
3 - ChC under 93
2 - Oak over 89.5
1 - Bos under 96 (!!)

I don't bet because I've never been good at predictions. Here goes.

10. NYM      81 (over)
9. SF       85 (under)
8. NYY      99.5 (under)
7. Phi      92.5 (over)
6. Min      85.5 (under)
5. Sea      88.5 (under)
4. Ana      91.5 (under)
3. ChC      93 (under)
2. Hou      90.5 (over)
1. Bos      96.5 (under)

First time poster, long-time reader:

10 TOR (over) -- and I'm American
9 OAK (over)
8 DET (under)
7 CINTI (under)
6 FLA (over)

I've just scored this contest. The final standings - keeping in mind that top ranked pick was worth 10, second worth 9, and so on down to tenth being worth 1 - are listed below.

A perfect score would be 55. In order to break even, you would need a score of 55/2 (27.5). In reality, the sportsbook would also take 10% of your winning bets, making the actual break even point 30.25. This contest, however, involves only Batter's Box dollars, redeemable for photos of odd looking animals, the quality and quantity of which will be determined at Moffatt's whim. It's bad karma to charge vig, so consider yourself to have broken even at 27.5.

1. Dave Till - 46
1.  Jim - 46
3.  Jeff - 44
4.  Craig B - 43
5.  Rob - 41
6.  Mike Green - 40
7.  Robert Dudek - 36
7.  Dylan B - 36
9.  Lucas - 33
10. Pistol - 29
10. Mike H - 29
12. Ted C - 27
13. 3RunHomer - 24
14. Rob Andrew - 22
14. Another Rob - 22
16. Coach - 21
16. Harry Heatherington - 21
18. Jonny German - 20
19. King Rat - 19
20. Kristian - 18
20. Christian - 18
22. Johnny Mack - 10

Dave Till and Jim win great respect and admiration from the Bauxites. Congratulations, fellows!

Johnny Mack will get a hangnail.

I should break down my own figures...

10 - Seattle under 88.5
9 - Baltimore under 81.5
8 - Mets under 81
7 - Reds under 72
6 - Astros over 90.5
5 - Red Sox over 96.5
4 - Marlins under 81.5
3 - Cubs under 93
2 - Pirates over 66.5
1 - Angels under 91.5

If I were a betting man, I'd only have laid on the top three here, as they were the only ones I felt confident in. Even then, Baltimore went down almost to the wire before chugging in at 78-84. So I went 3-0, which is almost enough for me to place a few over/under bets next year... Seattle under 88.5 was possibly the easiest money I ever could have made in my life.

I scored on Seattle, Baltimore, the Mets, the Astros, the Red Sox, the Cubs, and the Pirates. I missed on the Reds, Marlins, and Angels, none significantly (four games, 1.5 games, and half a game). I never would make that Red Sox bet in real life... betting OVER 96.5 is not the sort of thing I would do because of the margin for error. It says something about the Sox, though, that they could have what I thought was a tremendously disappointing season, and still win 98 games and beat their Vegas over/under. Wow!

And if had really made that Houston bet, I'd have probably sold it in July for five cents on the dollar.