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Please welcome Batter's Box reader Dyl as he suggests a new 5x5 format for fantasy ball.


An alternative 5x5 scoring format for fantasy baseball
by Dyl


With the amount of discussion on this website about how the current stats are not useful for determining a player's real worth, I wonder why no one has ever proposed a new scoring format.

Is it because of tradition? The ease of reporting stats like HR,RBI and Wins as opposed to Total Bases and OBP? The current format relies on statistics which cannot be solely attributed to a player's skill. For example, Bonds is a great hitter, but in fantasy circles he wouldn't be considered a lock for the first round because the lineup around him won't give him a fair amount of opportunities to score runs and RBIs. Similar, Jake Peavy is having a great season so far, but you wouldn't know it from his 1-1 record.

A new scoring format should allow you to use intuition to pick the best players, instead of esoteric formulas that show how a player's skills, team and situation predict the number of rbi-generating opportunities he will face in the season and how proficient he is at converting these opportunities.

I would like to hear what your suggestions and your reasoning for metrics should be included in a new 5x5 format. If we do hammer out a new format, and if enough people are willing, let's start a mid-season league to test it out!

I do have a couple of constraints, the most important being the use of Yahoo defined stats. This way, there is the greatest chance of adoption by other leagues since Yahoo will do most of the scoring work for you for free.

Batters

OBP - The advantages of On Base Percentage over Batting Average to help determine a batter's worth has been argued to death here and elsewhere. So I don't think I need to say more on this one.

Total Bases - Home Runs are sexier, but if we want to more accurately determine a batter's power, than all those doubles and triples have to count too. Power bats will still reign supreme since a lot of home run hitters get a lot of two baggers as well and the added bonus is that mid-power guys will get recognition over slap hitters.

Stolen Base - Yes, yes, a steal is not worth as much as an out in most cases. Still you have to admire those guys who can steal bases at will and give their team an improved scoring chance. One of the reasons I prefer 5x5 over 4x4 is that steals are not as valuable in 5x5.

FLD% - Fielding Percentage is not the ideal metric to measure the defensive prowess of a position player. But it is adequate when combined with positional requirements. Fielding percentages measure the ability of players to make defensive plays and not make a fielding error. Yes it would be better if this category could also factor in defensive range, but you take what you can get from Yahoo.

Runs - I really can't think of a fifth stat at the moment. I would probably lean towards using Runs since it would somewhat measures how good a player's base-running judgment is (not getting picked off, knowing when to take off after a hit and when to wait, etc.)

Pitchers

WHIP - probably the most important statistic for a pitcher. The less runners you allow on the bases, the less chance that a run will be scored on you.

Strikeouts - A strikeout is a better way of preventing a batter to reach base than allowing a flyball or grounder because then the pitcher doesn't have to rely on his team's defense to get the out.

Runs Scored - In the end, a pitcher has to be able to limit how many runs are scored while he's on the mound. ERA doesn't do it because it suffers from the fallacy of when exactly is a run and 'earned' one. I resist turning this stat into a rate stat because I think its easier to simply aggregate how many runs a pitcher has allowed and because rate stats are prone to abuse (see LIMA plan).

IP - Innings Played is a category I like because it does reflect how efficient and effective a pitcher is with his pitches. The longer he can go for, the less need for the rest of the bullpen to expend their energy to close out the game. Rather the bullpen can save that energy for the next game. Although many mediocre starting pitchers could do well in this category, would you want to insert one in and risk a horrible WHIP or runs scored? No.

G - Games played in. Probably the most controversial of my picks. I wanted a category that would show which relief pitchers would be considered the bullpen ace or the fireman that really puts out the fires. My belief is that the number of games that a reliever plays in shows the amount of trust the team manager has in a particular reliever to hold batters off the bags. If anyone could think of a better stats to use than # of Games then I would be happy to hear about it.

So there you go, those are my ten category picks for what should be a revolutionary way to play fantasy baseball. One based not on exploiting the team situations that a players finds himself playing in, but one where the player's skills are used to win the fantasy prize.
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_David Armitage - Friday, April 30 2004 @ 11:35 PM EDT (#68813) #
I don't really think the games played in category is such a good idea. I understand the logic behind you're reasoning, the problem is that the method of counting the stat is dependent on prior performance. Surely there should be some other way of differentiating between a good pitcher and a bad one. The likelihood of both types of players appearing in a game is much higher at the beginning of a season than at the end.

For example, Billy Wagner gets 3 saves in a week without allowing a run, and strikes out 6 but only pitches in 3 games. On the other hand the Tigers get blown out 5-6 times in a 7 game week, and Gary Knotts makes 5 appearances allowing all kinds of hits/walks/runs, he would gain more points in that category then Wagner?

I think the key to good stat categories is that the opportunity to achieve a desired output remains constant throughout the season. As time passes on the opportunity to collect a stat like that becomes less obtainable to a higher percentage of pitchers/fantasy teams.
_snellville jone - Saturday, May 01 2004 @ 01:51 AM EDT (#68814) #
When we started the BBFL we debated many of these issues. For those not familiar, we ended up with R/RBI/SB/AVG/OBP/SLG and IP/W/SV/ERA/(K/BB)/WHIP. It has proven to be fairly accurate of what I would consider a player's value.

In comparison to your batting categories, we share the OBP, SB, and R. Instead of Total Bases, we use the equivilant rate stat, SLG%. Fielding is something that would be great to take advantage of, but I think the consensus is that the lack of adequate metrics leaves us with no good alternatives.

In pitching, we share the IP and WHIP categories. While there has been some discussion here about the validity of Earned Runs, I don't believe a pitcher should be punished by a bad defense any more than he already will be on plays that aren't ruled errors (fly balls lost in sun, range, etc.).

I understand your hesitance to include things such as W, SV, RBI, and R. These, as you say, are situational. The way I look at it, there are two things a baseball player needs to do: put your team in a position to win, and then, actually win.

Good Rate Stats (AVG/OBP/SLG, ERA/(K/BB)/WHIP) are what puts teams in a position to win. If Jake Peavy tosses 7 innings of 3-hit 1-run ball, he's put his team in a good position to win. For his team to actually win, he needs to give up less runs than his team scores. If Barry Bonds goes 2 for 2 with a couple of 2Bs and 2BB, he's put his team in a good position to win. To actually win, he needs to score runs or drive them in.

The situational stats, or counting stats, are balanced by the rate stats here; three of each for both pitching and hitting. The real wild card, in my mind, is the stolen base. It would be nice to see it tied into slugging, adding it as a total base as well as subtracting when caught stealing. It'd be great to have a category like a "productive at-bat" where the at-bat caused a run to score later; sacrifices as well as, say, moving a scoring runner over, or getting a single that gets a guy to third that later scores.

Damn, that was long.
_3RunHomer - Saturday, May 01 2004 @ 07:51 AM EDT (#68815) #
IMHO, the best fantasy scoring method is a simple points system:

batters: total bases + walks - outs made
pitchers: (outs * 3) - total bases allowed - walks

Baseball is all about outs and total bases, isn't it?
Walks are figured in too because they aren't in total bases (or maybe they are, I'm not really sure).
_NDG - Saturday, May 01 2004 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#68816) #
I agree that a points system probably best reflects ability, but it's biggest drawback is that it's boring! Points leagues operate a bit like VORP, where a single elite player can have more worth than 2-3 average players. Also since you are scoring on a single points system, you never need to make up for batter deficiences (like lack of speed, no power, etc:). These two things mean that trades never occur (other than hitter for pitcher), and that you never need to change your lineup (since you don't need to worry about being super strong in one category and weak in another like you do in rotisserie). This just leads to boredom.
_Dyl - Saturday, May 01 2004 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#68817) #
I agree with NDG. Once I started playing rotisserie style, I never went back =)
_Brendan Donnell - Saturday, May 01 2004 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#68818) #
David, granted, Knotts in your scenario scores more points than Wagner, but in only ONE category, the same performance costs in Whip Runs Scored, the beauty of a games played category or more in my line of thinking the Holds, is you can gain reward for the guys that get you to the ninth, the guys that are pretty important, but always sit undrafted in fantasy leagues, the guys that really make a difference, the guys, that even go to all star games.
_Jurgen - Saturday, May 01 2004 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#68819) #
I agree, the BBFL 6x6 has been pretty smooth. I'd highly recommend the format to anyone looking for something different.
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