Hi. For those of you who are new here: at the end of every month, I like to write up a monthly report card for the Jays, grading each player on a scale from A+ ("we're not worthy") to F ("get out of town, and don't come back"). Here's the card for April.
Warning: my comments are remarkably free of statistical analysis, and occasionally are over-reliant on overworked metaphors. Read at your own risk.
To say that this was a forgettable month for the Blue Jays would be a laughable understatement: the Jays started badly, ended badly, and finished with a day of rain, which is about the best they could have hoped for. We seem to be witnessing an unheard-of phenomenon: a genuinely good team playing .318 baseball.
Offense
Dave Berg
"Hello. You may not remember me. My name is Dave Berg. B-E-R-G. No, I'm not the MAD magazine columnist; he used to see the lighter side of things, and I'm not seeing the lighter side of anything right now, thank you very much. I'm the guy who occasionally plays for the Toronto Blue Jays, appearing in the lineup only when they're down by 10 runs, or five other guys are hurt or hung over. I'm glued to the bench on a team that seems destined for 110 losses, my batting average is lower than that of most pitchers, and everyone in the greater Toronto area who knows who I am is calling for me to be replaced by an outfielder, another pitcher, Ed The Wonder Horse, or anybody at all, really. Why, exactly, didn't I become an accountant like my Uncle Ernie advised me to?"
Grade: F, or "nobody likes me, everybody hates me, think I'm gonna eat some worms"
Kevin Cash
Got off to a tremendous start, which saved his career and built up his self-confidence: he, and everybody else, now thinks he belongs in the major leagues. I agree with this assessment, but I'm still not sure that he will hit well enough to remain a major-league regular; his batting average is slowly sinking in the west, he doesn't walk, and he's second on the club in strikeouts behind Phelps. Certain pitchers make him look hopelessly overmatched at the plate. Still, it's best to judge a player by what he can do, instead of what he can't: Cash can hit certain pitches a significant distance, and he plays defense like he was born with a catcher's mitt in his hand. At the very least, he'll become the next Buck Martinez, and he should be playing baseball somewhere 10 years from now, even if he's only a Triple-A emergency reserve. Owns left-handed pitching, which is a relief, given the other hitters' struggles with them.
Grade: B
Frank Catalanotto
The only consistent and reliable Jay this month, Frank has quietly stayed at about .280 the whole way, fouling off pitches until he gets one he likes, and occasionally whacking an extra-base hit when the opposing pitcher makes a mistake. The Cat doesn't draw many walks, as he prefers to foul off the borderline pitches; this hurts his on-base percentage. On defense, he's got decent range, and goes back on a ball much better than I realized, but he doesn't have much of an arm. The downside is that there isn't anything he's really good at, unless he gets his average back up over .320: he doesn't hit home runs, he doesn't steal bases, he doesn't reach base 40% of the time, and he's not a superior outfielder. I like him, I'm glad he's here, and I think he deserves his job, but he's only a good player, and the Jays' divisional rivals have great players in the outfield. Or, to put it another way: hands up, those of you who would trade the Cat for Manny Ramirez. Probably should sit against tough lefthanders: he's batting .105 against southpaws.
Grade: C+
Howie Clark
Came to the rescue when needed, and has done well with the small number of at-bats he's been given. Like Berg, he isn't really an outfielder, and shouldn't be asked to play there too often. Warning sign: he's drawn only one walk in his 27 at-bats.
Grade: B+
Carlos Delgado
This past month has convinced me: the Jays need to re-sign Delgado. He is the heart and soul of the Jays' offense; without him, they're nothing. The proof: when he started the year in the worst slump of his career, all the bats crashed and burned with him. When he woke up, they woke up. Proof that he is a great player: even in one of the worst months of his baseball life, Carlos still managed a .367 on-base percentage and an .861 OPS. Want more proof? The Jays' current leader in runs scored is Vernon Wells, the player with the worst on-base percentage in the starting lineup, but the man with the privilege of batting immediately ahead of Carlos.
Grade: A-
Chris Gomez
Attention, Carlos Tosca: Do not bat this man second. Sure, he's off to a good start, but his career OBP is .320, and his career slugging percentage is .360. You do not want him in the middle of your lineup. Having said that, you've got to give him credit for an amazing 23 at-bats: he led the team in both on-base percentage (.464) and slugging (.522) in that small sample size. And, he played anywhere on the infield the Jays asked him to. I'd still rather have Mike Bordick, but so far this looks like a good signing.
Grade: A
Chad Hermansen
I'm troubled by this move. If they decided in March that Hermansen couldn't make the grade as a fourth outfielder, why would 19 at-bats in Syracuse change that decision? Any hitter can get hot for 20 at-bats or so - see Chris Gomez above - so they should not have been surprised to discover that Hermansen wasn't going to help the Jays (seven at-bats, three strikeouts, no hits). Even the worst Rotisserie Ultra player (who may very well be me - hi, Harry, if you're reading this!) knows that you have to give your players at least a few weeks on the active roster before you make any decisions. Oh, well - it only cost the Jays the price of a minimum-salary contract for a week or two, plus a round-trip ticket to Syracuse. I'll be surprised if he ever returns.
Grade: F
Eric Hinske
Even when he is slumping, his plate discipline is always good, so he'll never be a total drag on the offense. It's too early to tell whether he's going to raise his average once he finds his range, or whether he's always going to have some holes in his swing, and thus always be on the low side of .270. I haven't had a chance to see him play much this year, as the Jays' TV broadcasts are always either being moved to pay-per-view or being pre-empted by detailed analyses of what the Toronto Maple Leafs!!!! had for breakfast this morning. Grrr. His defense isn't really that bad, by the way: sure, he doesn't exactly have the greatest hands, and occasionally his throws go in a direction he didn't intend them to, but he goes to his left well, he can backhand balls, and he's made some nice leaping grabs. He's much, much better than Ed Sprague was.
Grade: C+
Orlando Hudson
Nobody's noticed, but the O-Dog is hitting better lately. He's tied for third on the team in extra-base hits, he'll take a walk now and again, and his on-base percentage is slowly rising. And his defense is getting better, and is getting noticed. If he keeps this up, he could wind up with a Gold Glove on his mantelpiece. At the plate, Hudson's troubles against lefties have been well-documented, but he's actually hitting better against them than Hinske, Woodward, or Catalanotto.
Grade: B-
Reed Johnson
As everyone reading Da Box probably knows by now, Johnson is the perfect fourth outfielder. He can play all three outfield positions, he runs well, he can pinch-hit, and he can bunt. As a fourth outfielder, he can serve as an injection of hustle from off the bench, and is perfect for a late-inning situation with a left-handed pitcher on the mound. But he doesn't hit well enough to play right field in the major leagues on a regular basis; don't forget that the Jays' divisional opponents have people like Gary Sheffield manning the same position. Unless your outfielders are kicking butt and taking names, your only chance of seeing October baseball is to press the "POWER" button on your remote control.
Grade: C+
Greg Myers
Ouch. I fear it will take him a long time to come back from that little rupture. From what I've read, he was seriously thinking of retiring after 2003; now, I'll bet he'll pack it in after this season. Worst-case scenario: Buck Martinez recovered from his 1985 leg injury, but was so slow that the infielders could afford to play way back on him, cutting down on his hitting zones. The same fate may befall Crash, who wasn't exactly a speed demon before his injury.
Grade: Medic!
Josh Phelps
Everybody says that Phelps is an intelligent man, and I believe them: he has to be very smart to stay in the major leagues with a swing as long as that. I fear that major-league pitchers now have a detailed map of his strengths and weaknesses at the plate, and know just where to pitch him. The result is a lot of strikeouts, and a so-so batting average. At this point, I'd say that he doesn't hit anywhere near well enough to play first base in the major leagues on a full-time basis, which means that the Jays' front office needs to be preparing a 2005 contract with the name "Delgado" on it. I hope I'm wrong about Josh, I really do, but I fear I'm not.
Grade: C-
Simon Pond
Did anyone ask him whether he would prefer playing regularly in the minors to sitting on the bench in the majors? His problem is that he bats left, which means that Howie Clark can do everything he can do, plus play better defense and hit a bit more. Who would have thought that you can, too, have too many left-handed hitters? Oh, well - at least he can say he has played major league baseball, and a lot of talented young athletes have never gotten that far.
Grade: Incomplete
Vernon Wells
Tom Candiotti, who is a good colour commentator, claims (if I remember correctly) that opposition pitchers have found a hole in V-Dub's swing: they're working him up and away with fastballs, and he's not catching up to them. Normally, pitchers work up and in, and down and away, and Wells can hit those pitches. I'm deeply worried about him: he's never really had good plate discipline, for the simple reason that he never needed to walk - in the past, he would always find a pitch he could hit hard before the pitcher could walk him. Those instincts are betraying him right now; unless he can make the adjustment, it will take him a long time to rebuild his approach to the plate. The good news: his strikeout and walk totals aren't out of line with his numbers from last year, and his defense is still excellent. The moral: baseball is hard.
Grade: D+
Chris Woodward
Wow, talk about good timing. At mid-month, Woody was in danger of losing his job to Chris Gomez, and possibly being punted off the roster: he wasn't hitting, he wasn't fielding, and he looked overmatched. Then, suddenly, he got red-hot, making his numbers better than those of any other Jay. He won't stay at this level, but he's just earned himself a career: when one of the young kids pushes his way to the top, Woody will push aside whoever is employed as the Jays' reserve infielder, and will start a long career as a fifth infielder and occasional pinch-hitter. It's a role he's handled before. It's too bad Michael Lewis focused on the Oakland A's instead of the Jays in his book; I think Woody probably deserves a chapter more than Scott Hatteberg did. Woody has had some tremendous at-bats, fouling off pitch after pitch, and no doubt bringing a smile to J.P.'s face (possibly the only one he's had this month).
Grade: A
Gregg Zaun
Give J.P. credit. Smart general managers have backup plans in place. There are some front-office types who would not have bothered to sign a replacement-level backup catcher and park him in AAA just in case. Rick Dempsey's nephew won't contribute that much, but he won't hurt the team with his bat the way Huckaby's did, and he'll handle the backup job just fine. That home run didn't hurt, either.
Grade: Incomplete
Pitching
Terry Adams
The problem is that they're too similar. Adams, Ligtenberg, and Speier are all right-handed, and they've all had experience as a closer, so it's too tempting to constantly shuffle them like cards. Adams is tougher to hit than the other two, which I guess is why Tosca favours him. I'd make Adams the #1 setup guy, as he's more durable than the other two, but it doesn't matter too much to me either way, as long as Tosca makes a decision and sticks with it. The Jays' bullpen started off as a team strength, and could become one again.
Grade: B
Miguel Batista
The Jays are talking about telling El Artista to focus on three or four of his pitches, instead of all eight or 14 or however many he has. But there's one thing I'd want to know first: is he consistently struggling with one or more of his pitches, or is he equally consistent (i.e., inconsistent) with all of them? If it's the latter, I'd say let him throw everything. Sure, it's frustrating watching his various offerings sail up, down and out of the strike zone during the first couple of innings, until he's finally got all his instruments recalibrated, but when he's on, he's a joy to watch. And he managed to outpitch Curt Schilling in Fenway Park. Pitchers who come to Toronto from elsewhere often face a rough adjustment period: the Dome is large and cavernous, the turf is bouncy, and the ball tends to fly over the fence. It takes a while to figure out what works here.
Grade: D
Valerio De Los Santos
The latest in a long line of spot lefthanders who have brought glory to the Jays, standing tall and proud next to the likes of Pedro Borbon, Trever Miller, Felix Heredia, and Dave Geisel. Doesn't really help or hurt the club that much, as he only faces about two batters an outing, and he'll likely prolong Carlos Tosca's life by about five years, as the skipper gets regular exercise walking out to the mound to summon him, and then walking out to the mound again to pull him. Oh, the life of a LOOGY: twenty pitches a week, millions of dollars in salary, and all the amenities of the major-league lifestyle. Why was I born right-handed?
Grade: C-
Sean Douglass
Pitched four scoreless innings in Toronto, and then went down and got stomped in Syracuse. He'll probably be back up at some point, when the Jays give up on the five other guys they're trying out in the 12th man role.
Grade: Incomplete
Jason Frasor
He throws hard, and he's willing to take the ball whenever you want to give it to him. Unfortunately, this means he'll likely be worked until he drops. You can't blame a player for demanding every last dollar he can get when negotiating, as most careers are very short.
Grade: B
Roy Halladay
Actually doing significantly better than he did this time last year, but he's showing some of his usual April problems: he's getting hit more than he usually does, and some of those hits are long bombs. But not to worry: when the weather gets warm, he'll go through American League lineups like a group of hungry computer programmers scarfing down a free pizza lunch (trust me, this is a good metaphor). We absolutely do not have to worry about this guy.
Grade: A-
Pat Hentgen
When I saw him on the tube this week, I realized how much I love watching this guy pitch. Hentgen competes. Even though he's 35, and is reaching 85 tops on the radar gun, he's still not afraid to challenge a hitter with an upstairs fastball, if he thinks he's got the batter set up properly. He gives you everything he's got, and I wish with all my heart that he'd never been let go in the first place. Having said that, it's clear that he's just about reached the end of the line. He can only last about six innings or so before he runs out of gas, he has to hit his spots just right in order to be effective, and sometimes he gets lit up out there. He's only struck out six batters in 25 2/3 innings, which is an almost ridiculously low ratio. Still, I think I'd rather have him out there than Escobar - and, if you could put Hentgen's brain and heart in Escobar's body, you'd have a pitcher who could rule the world.
Grade: C-
Jason Kershner
Seems to have lost whatever he had for a while last year. Because the Jays have more bullpen depth now, and because none of their starters are getting yanked in the third or fourth inning any more, they've pretty much left Kershner to rot on the sidelines. The only good news: having ineffective lefties reduces the temptation to make three pitching changes in a single inning. I don't know how to grade him: how can you judge a pitcher on 5 2/3 innings of work?
Grade: D-
Kerry Ligtenberg
Is now the #3 man behind Adams and Speier. This week, at least. Stay tuned. Has been accused in the past of being a ROOGY - ineffective against lefties - but he's actually doing better against lefties than righties so far. Striking out over a man an inning, as all good bullpen denizens should.
Grade: B
Ted Lilly
I think it was Gitz who warned us about Lilly, saying that sometimes he'll just lose it totally out there. He forgets that we're used to seeing Kelvim Escobar. Compared to Escobar (or even Lidle), Lilly is a hallmark of consistency. I hope that that 2-hitter didn't burn out his arm. Every team needs a decent left-handed starter; so far, Lilly looks OK. Strikeout-to-walk ratio is good.
Grade: B
Aquilino Lopez
It looks like he left it all on the field last year. Joins Darren Hall, Victor Cruz, Bob File, Jeff Musselman, and a host of others on the list of one-year bullpen wonders. You never know, but I think he might not come back.
Grade: F
Justin Miller
Was throwing strikes in his outing, and looked good at Syracuse. Has always had filthy stuff; the questions are whether he can keep it in the strike zone, and whether he can pitch without causing parts of his arm to fly off. Nobody knows the answers to either of these questions yet.
Grade: Incomplete
Michael Nakamura
Showed up in mid-month, pitched well in one outing, and then pitched really badly in a key game situation. Throws sidearm, which makes him useful if used judiciously. I don't know yet whether he has major-league stuff or not, as the sports networks keep bumping the Jays broadcasts to show things like Celebrity Mud Wrestling. When's that on next, by the way?
Grade: Insufficient Data
Justin Speier
If you take away that one horrible outing, he's had a pretty good month: he surrendered seven earned runs in April, four of which came in that one game. And even that game wasn't that bad: they were hitting him, but the first three of the four hits were on sharply-hit grounders; if one of those grounders had been hit right at an infielder, Speier would have gotten a double play, and would still be considered the closer. He threw 17 pitches in that outing, and 13 were strikes. Sometimes, you just have to shrug your shoulders, chalk it up to bad karma, and go out there and get 'em tomorrow.
Grade: C+
Josh Towers
While I don't disagree with the decision to punt Towers - he doesn't really have major-league stuff - I don't see why he was only given two starts to prove his worth. Unless the Jays were planning on giving Miller the fifth starter job all along, as soon as he proved that he was healthy, why make a switch so early? The problem with having a whole bunch of replacement-level options available is that the grass always looks greener on the other side of the fence: the guys in Syracuse will always have better numbers than the guys in Toronto, so the temptation to constantly swap them is always there. The Jays should decide which are their 11 or 12 or, God forbid, 13 best pitchers, and just leave them here for a while. Towers was waived out of the league, which suggests that nobody else thinks that he has major-league stuff, either.
Grade: F, and buh-bye
Overall
Right now, the Jays appear to be like wandering sheep: just when you've got one element of the team under control, another gets up and runs off. When the hitting was slumping, the starting pitching was good. When the hitting started to come around, the starting pitching lost it. When both the hitting and starting pitching were getting better, the bullpen imploded. The Jays are going so badly that even the baseball columnists have stopped gloating, and have started issuing murmurs of sympathy, as there's no point in kicking somebody when they're down.
Eventually, you would think, all of the team's elements will come together, and the Jays will get untracked. Unfortunately, it's probably already too late for the Jays to have a fighting chance of contending this year, or even of drawing much fan interest beyond us diehards. I hope that Rogers' bottom line can withstand another year or two of sharp growing pains, as I fear that they will need to.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20040501113347999