- Gene Mauch
The Toronto Blue Jays have a 5-14 record in one-run games.
In all their other games, the Blue Jays have gone 43-33. If they had played the 19 close games at that same pace, they’d have won 11 of them. And they’d have a 54-41 record, and be in first place in the AL East.
The mystery of why some teams play better in one-run games than others... well, if I had the answer, it wouldn’t be a mystery, would it? But there are four factors that are often mentioned. In order of importance, they would be:
1. Luck. This is mostly random chance, the luck of the draw. The mind resists this, but it's the one I believe is by far the most important...
2. The bullpen. These pitchers are almost always on the mound when these games are decided. Logic suggests that the teams with the best bullpens should have an advantage, in particular the team with the best relief pitchers (as opposed to the team with the deepest bullpen. The Toronto bullpen, as a group, is much deeper and stronger than the Yankees bullpen. But no one is better than Mariano Rivera.)
3. The bench. Wouldn’t a team with depth, a team that can bring in talented pinch-hitters at key moments, wouldn’t they have an advantage. Stands to reason, anyway.
4. The manager. Superior tactical skills - this ought to be a factor, no?
The Blue Jays have played .263 ball in one-run games, and played at a .566 clip the rest of the time. That’s an enormous difference in winning percentage. That gap, of .303, is the largest in the major leagues. By a considerable margin. Here’s the data:
1-RUN games NOT 1-RUN games
W L Pct. W L Pct. Difference
Toronto 5 14 .263 43 33 .566 -.303
Cleveland 14 22 .389 35 25 .583 -.194
Florida 10 17 .370 37 29 .561 -.190
Baltimore 7 11 .389 43 33 .566 -.177
St. Louis 16 14 .533 45 20 .692 -.159
Detroit 11 17 .393 35 30 .538 -.146
Kansas City 7 18 .280 27 43 .386 -.106
Atlanta 13 13 .500 41 29 .586 -.086
Pittsburgh 10 17 .370 30 38 .441 -.071
Minnesota 20 19 .513 31 23 .574 -.061
NY Mets 11 12 .478 38 34 .528 -.050
Houston 12 13 .480 36 33 .522 -.042
Oakland 12 12 .500 37 33 .529 -.029
Texas 15 14 .517 33 31 .516 .002
NY Yankees 10 8 .556 41 34 .547 .009
Philadelphia 12 11 .522 37 36 .507 .015
Chicago Cubs 13 12 .520 35 35 .500 .020
LA Angels 20 13 .606 36 26 .581 .025
Boston 11 8 .579 41 34 .547 .032
LA Dodgers 11 12 .478 32 40 .444 .034
Milwaukee 15 14 .517 32 35 .478 .040
Colorado 11 16 .407 22 44 .333 .074
Chicago Sox 23 9 .719 39 22 .639 .079
Seattle 14 14 .500 27 39 .409 .091
San Francisco 12 11 .522 29 42 .408 .113
Washington 24 13 .649 30 28 .517 .131
Cincinnati 15 14 .517 25 41 .379 .138
Arizona 18 13 .581 28 38 .424 .156
San Diego 18 10 .643 32 36 .471 .172
Tampa Bay 14 13 .519 18 51 .261 .258
After I look at these numbers, I believe more and more that the most important factor, by a mile, is the first one. Plain random luck. I think Lou Piniella’s a fine manager, but I don’t think his genius accounts for Tampa Bay’s much better record in one-run games than all the other ones. And I know it’s not their bench or their bullpen.Sometimes, maybe it is the bullpen. San Diego and Washington both have very fine bullpens, and have also performed much better in one-run games than otherwise. But maybe not - Cleveland’s bullpen has an ERA of 2.79, better than any other bullpen in the majors, and their record in one-run games is almost as disappointing as Toronto’s. Whereas Arizona’s bullpen has an unsightly 5.56 ERA, and they’ve got a fine record in one-run games.
So who the hell knows? But here’s what we can do in the meantime: we can take a good close look at those 19 Blue Jays games that were decided by a single run. Maybe we’ll see some patterns. Maybe we can distinguish different types of one-run games. We won’t know until we look.
APRIL (13-12 overall, 3-4 in one-run games)
Game 1 (LOSS) - 8 April 2005
R H E BOS (2-2) 111 001 200 6 9 0 TOR (2-2) 011 000 102 5 8 1Game Type: Rally That Fell Short.
Also contributing to this loss was a bullpen failure put the Jays into a hole too large to rally back from. This was a tight game through the first five innings, but Brandon League gave up three runs in the 6th and 7th to put the Jays down by four. His own throwing error led directly to two runs scoring. A ninth inning rally got the tying run to second base with one out, and loaded the bases with two out, but fell short. The other team’s perspective on this game is “We Just Held On.”
Game 2 (WIN) - 10 April 2005
R H E BOS (2-4) 010 000 002 3 10 0 TOR (4-2) 000 120 001 4 9 0Game Type: Big Hit in a Tie Game
Toronto took a 3-1 lead into the 9th, but the Red Sox rallied to tie off Miguel Batista. The key hits were a chopper off home plate by Johnny Damon and a two-run single by Edgar Renteria. But the Jays scored in the bottom half with an infield hit by Johnson and a double to the wall by Hudson.
Game 3 (WIN) - 14 April 2005
R H E TOR (7-3) 100 000 100 2 5 1 TEX (4-6) 000 010 000 1 5 1Game Type: Big Hit in a Tie Game
A fine pitching duel between Roy Halladay and Pedro Astacio. The big hit was Gregg Zaun’s seventh inning double, that moved Alex Rios to third, from where he scored on an Adams ground out.
Game 4 (LOSS) - 17 April 2005
R H E TOR (8-5) 000 103 100 5 10 0 TEX (6-7) 420 000 00x 6 12 1Game Type: Rally That Fell Short.
Josh Towers fell behind early, but Pete Walker stopped the bleeding. The Jays closed to within 2 runs in the sixth, and put the tying runs on base - but pinch-hitter John McDonald struck with runners on second and third. In the seventh, the Jays scored another and had runners on the corners with two outs, but the Rangers escaped when Adrian Gonzalez made a nice play on Hinske’s hard grounder. In the eighth, Zaun doubled with one out, but was caught off second as McDonald lined into a double play.
Game 5 (WIN) - 19 April 2005
R H E TOR (9-6) 000 001 021 4 13 0 BOS (8-6) 100 000 200 3 6 0Game Type: Bullpen Failure
The Jays were on the happy end of this one (so from their perspective, it’s a Successful Rally!). David Ortiz hit a two-run homer off Halladay to put the Red Sox up 3-1 in the seventh, but Vernon Wells answered right back with a two-run shot off his own off Alan Embree. The Jays scored the winner off Keith Foulke in the 9th. Catalanotto was hit by a pitch and Zaun walked. Hillenbrand singled, but Jay Payton threw pinch-runner Reed Johnson out at the plate to keep the score tied. But Corey Koskie, who had a huge game, then singled to drive in Zaun with the go-ahead run.
Game 6 (LOSS) - 21 April 2005
R H E NYY (7-9) 000 220 000 4 9 1 TOR (9-8) 000 030 000 3 13 0Game Type: Rally That Fell Short? Couldn’t Get a Big Hit?
After scoring three times in the fifth to close to within a run, the Jays couldn’t push across the tying run despite a number of chances. In the sixth, they loaded the bases with one out: Zaun popped out, Hillenbrand grounded out. Wells doubled with one out in the seventh, but Hinske and Rios couldn’t cash him in. Hudson walked to lead off the eighth, but never made it any further. With two out in the ninth, Wells and Hinske singled, but Rivera got Rios to ground out to end it. The Jays stranded 13 baserunners.
Game 7 (LOSS) - 30 April 2005
R H E TOR (13-12) 000 020 010 3 8 0 NYY (10-14) 200 100 001 4 10 0Game Type: Bullpen Failure
This was Chien-Ming Wang’s debut, and he and Dave Bush matched up in a close game. Corey Koskie’s eighth inning homer tied it. In the bottom of the ninth, Vinnie Chulk gave up a leadoff walk to Rodriguez, and a single to Martinez. An intentional walk loaded the bases for Womack, who delivered the game-winning single.
MAY (Overall 15-12; 1-5 in one-run games)
Game 8 (WIN) - 3 May 2005
R H E TOR (16-12) 000 000 010 1 5 1 BAL (17-9) 000 000 000 0 3 0Game Type: Big Hit in a Tie Game
A wonderful pitching duel between Josh Towers and Daniel Cabrera. Finally, Hinske and Zaun walked to start the eighth. Hinske moved to third on Rios’ force out. The Jays tried a suicide squeeze, but Russ Adams bunt went foul. Adams then rolled a nubber past the pitcher for an infield hit that scored the game’s only run.
Game 9 (LOSS) - 8 May 2005
R H E CHW (24-7) 120 200 000 5 10 2 TOR (16-16) 000 400 000 4 9 0Game Type: Rally That Fell Short
Gus Chacin fell behind early, but the Jays closed the gap to one run with a four-spot off Mark Buehrle, aided by a key Uribe error. The final five innings were scoreless - the Jays didn’t really threaten until the ninth. Zaun walked with one out - he was injured sliding into second on McDonald’s force out, but Hudson followed with a pinch-hit double, putting both the tying and winning runs on base. Reed Johnson then lined out to centre to end it.
Game 10 (LOSS) - 14 May 2005
R H E TOR (19-18) 020 000 000 2 7 0 CLE (16-19) 020 000 10x 3 5 0Game Type: Bullpen Failure
A lengthy rain delay removed starters Gus Chacin and Kevin Millwood. The ensuing battle of the bullpens was settled when Jhonny Peralta homered off Jason Frasor in the seventh. Alex Rios, who walked to lead off the sixth, and singled to lead off the ninth, was the only Blue Jay to reach base after the fourth inning.
Game 11 (LOSS) - 18 May 2005
R H E TOR (21-19) 001 100 000 2 7 0 MIN (22-16) 020 100 00x 3 7 0Game Type: Big Hit in a Tie Game
Michael Cuddyer’s fourth inning homer off Dave Bush, who worked a complete game. Vernon Wells led off the sixth with a double; he was the last Toronto hitter to reach base, as the Twins retired 16 of the final 17 batters.
Game 12 (LOSS) - 28 May 2005
R H E MIN (29-19) 020 020 000 4 6 2 TOR (26-23) 001 000 002 3 9 1Game Type: Rally That Fell Short
Kyle Lohse beat Dave Bush for the second time in 10 days. Bush was not happy about being pulled in the fifth with two outs and the bases empty. By the time the weekend was over, he was in Syracuse. Aaron Hill delivered a two run double off Joe Nathan, putting the tying run on second with one out, but Adams and Zaun couldn’t deliver the needed hit.
Game 13 (LOSS) - 30 May 2005
R H E TOR (27-24) 000 010 200 3 8 0 SEA (21-29) 000 310 00x 4 7 0Game Type: Rally That Fell Short
Trailing 4-1 against Jamie Moyer, the Jays got seventh inning homers from Hudson and Johnson off Mateo to cut the gap to a single run. Hillenbrand singled to lead off the eighth, and Hudson walked with two out, but Thornton got Zaun to fly out to snuff out the Jays best chance.
JUNE (Overall 12-15; 1-1 in one-run games)
Game 14 (WIN) - 22 June 2005
R H E BAL (42-29) 001 100 000 2 7 0 TOR (36-36) 001 020 00x 3 7 1Game Type: Couldn't Get a Big Hit in A Close Game
The Jays scored the go-ahead run on Daniel Cabrera’s fifth inning balk, and got some yeoman relief work out of Jason Frasor (retired Palmeiro and Gibbons with two men on in the sixth), Scott Schoeneweis (struck out Roberts with a runner aboard in the seventh) and Miguel Batista (retired Sosa and Palmeiro with the tying run on second in the eighth.) Then Orlando Hudson made an amazing stop on Jay Gibbons leading off the ninth.
Game 15 (LOSS) - 27 June 2005
R H E TOR (38-39) 000 200 010 3 10 1 TAM (27-50) 003 100 00x 4 7 0Game Type: Couldn't Get a Big Hit in A Close Game
Aubrey Huff’s three-run homer off Pete Walker helped push the Devil Rays to a 4-2 lead. In the eighth inning, Wells walked and Hillenbrand doubled. Wells was out at the plate on Hill’s fielder’s choice and Hinske struck out. Rios singled to score Hillenbrand and move Hill to second, but Hudson grounded out to end the threat. Danys Baez set them down in order in the ninth.
JULY (Overall 8-8; 0-4 in one-run games)
Game 16 (LOSS) - 8 July 2005
R H E TOR (44-42) 060 000 000 6 6 3 TEX (44-40) 111 200 002 7 14 0Game Type: Bullpen Failure
Not entirely a failure by the bullpen - Miguel Batista gave up two runs in the ninth to lose the game, but he only gave up one clean hit, a single by Blalock. Errant throws by Hillenbrand and Zaun accounted for most of the carnage. Jason Frasor gave up a pair of fourth inning runs to allow the Rangers back into the game, but the rest of the bullpen held fast until the calamitous ninth. This was the game in which Halladay was injured.
Game 17 (LOSS) - 10 July 2005
R H E TOR (44-44) 000 130 013 8 13 1 TEX (46-40) 021 020 04x 9 12 2Game Type: Bullpen Failure / Rally That Fell Short
Trailing 5-4, the Jays tied in the top of the eighth. Zaun singled and Hinske doubled to start the inning. Rios’ grounder scored Zaun and moved Hinske to third. But McDonald and Adams both grounded out to leave him there. With one out and no one aboard in the bottom of the inning, Jason Frasor relieved Scott Schoeneweis and immediately imploded, giving up a pair of two-run homers, to DeRosa and Teixeira. The Jays rallied for three off Cordero in the top of the ninth. With one out, Wells singled, Hillenbrand was hit by a pitch, and Hill’s double cashed in both runners. Zaun walked, and Hinske doubled to score Hill. But Zaun, possibly flagging a little in the Texas heat, stopped at third on the play and was stranded there as Rios struck out and Johnson grounded out.
Game 18 (LOSS) - 16 July 2005
R H E TAM (30-62) 031 200 000 6 12 1 TOR (45-46) 003 002 000 5 9 1Game Type: Rally That Fell Short
A missed call by John Hirschbeck on a play at first cost the Jays a run, as Carl Crawford’s subsequent homer cashed two runs instead of one. That put the Jays down 6-3, but they cut the gap to a single run on Rios’ double in the sixth. Wells was intentionally walked to load the bases, but Hillenbrand popped out and Hill grounded out to end that threat. The Jays got the leadoff man aboard in the seventh and eighth, but couldn’t do anything with it.
Game 19 (LOSS) - 17 July 2005
R H E TAM (31-62) 000 100 031 5 12 2 TOR (45-47) 020 000 200 4 8 1Game Type: Bullpen Failure
A wild game, and a tough loss, as the Jays took a 4-1 lead into the eighth inning. The Rays scored a run off Schoeneweis, and Batista entered the game with two out and a man on first. He allowed a single to Gomes and then Toby Hall doubled down the left field line to cash both runners. Gregg Zaun and John Gibbons didn’t think much of John Hirschbeck’s work on the play. Reed Johnson then saved three runs with a spectacular diving catch in the gap, the best catch I’ve seen all season. All this sent the game to the ninth tied at 4-4, where, with two out, Batista gave up back-to-back doubles by Lugo and Cantu to put the D’Rays ahead. Rios walked to start the bottom of the ninth, and Adams singled with two out, but Johnson lined out to deep left to end the game. Some Quick Observations
In fully half of the Jays 14 one-run losses - seven times - the Jays cut a deficits ranging from 3 to 6 runs down to a single run, but fell short. A few of these games were not really close, but the Fighting Jays kept swinging and made them close.
Bullpen failures in the late innings play a key role in five Toronto losses, which really doesn't seem all that bad. In two games, Jason Frasor got tagged for homers in a tie game: once for a single solo homer, and once for a pair of two-run shots. Miguel Batista had a rough game against Tampa, and was essentially betrayed by his defense against Texas. Vinnie Chulk walked the leadoff man in the ninth inning of a tie game, which often leads to trouble.
However, the Jays didn't have much success in inducing game-deciding bullpen failures from the other team. Three of the Jays close wins were settled by the starting pitchers: Doc outduelled Astacio, and they beat Daniel Cabrera twice. Against the other teams bullpens... not so much. They got a big hit off Mike Timlin in the ninth inning of a tie game; they beat Keith Foulke. Granted, Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan have a history of not allowing those types of hits. The Jays also came up short against people like Danys Baez, Matt Thornton and Damaso Marte.
Sometimes the other guys got a key hit in a close game- Cuddyer's fourth inning solo HR off Bush, Peralta's seventh inning solo HR off Frasor - but the Jays had a few key hits of their own, of course.
