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Giving most major league teams millions of dollars to play with and a list of available free agents is like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys. (Thank you, P.J. O'Rourke.)

So the madness is beginning...

The Chicago Cubs have signed LH Scott Eyre to a three year deal that guarantees Eyre $11 million (performance bonuses could kick it up to $13.4 million.)

Washington signed utility guy Marlon Anderson to a two year deal worth $1.85 million.

Chipper Jones is finally restructuring his contract - Jones has evidently offered to do this after each of the two preceding seasons; this year the Braves are taking him up on it. The prospect of Rafael Furcal playing elsewhere seems to have concentrated the mind wonderfully.

Jason Bay is getting some big money - $18.25 million over the next four years. The Pirates are doing what Toronto did with Wells and Hinske - lock up the player through his arbitration years. This will save them money. I would think this approach has already saved the the Blue Jays some money as well.

Query - is Terry Adams an "old friend?" I seek enlightenment. Anyway, among the players DFA'd by the Pirates were infielders Bobby Hill and Mike Restovich.

News on the big free agents: no news! Isn't that strange? Because surely the two most impressive free agents this off-season are Rafael Furcal and Paul Konerko. Everyone seems to be taking it for granted that Konerko is staying put, although the $52 million offer from Chicago is but a rumour so far. The Angels haven't given up yet. As for Furcal, the Mets seem convinced that he's off to the Cubs, but the Braves are clearly positioning themselves to try to keep him where he is (see Chipper Jones, above.) And if they can't bring Furcal back, John Schuerholz has his eye fixed on Trevor Hoffman.

As for the rest: St. Louis is backing out of the Brian Giles sweepstakes, having decided to concentrate on pitching instead... the Yankees will offer Giles $33 million over three years to play CF ... Giles' agent says he and his client haven't made plans to go anywhere yet, that he spoke with Ricciardi on Sunday, and that the Blue Jays remain in the hunt... the Cardinals are going after A.J. Burnett, although they're also very much interested in Octavio Dotel.... the Yankees have not been able to persuade B.J. Ryan to come to town and be Mariano Rivera's set-up man... having already lost out on Scott Eyre, the Bombers are now looking at Kyle Farnsworth and Bob Howry...

Rumours! - the Marlins may be about to deal Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to Texas for Hank Blalock and a pitching prospect. (The deal is aparently being put together by Jeff Loria and Tom Hicks, which makes one wonder how the two GMs feel about it.)

Teams are purchasing player contracts in preparation for the Rule 5 Draft, and the Blue Jays have added Josh Banks and Ryan Roberts to the 40 man roster.

Ken Rosenthal mentions that the Jays are interested in Gerald Laird (tip of the hat to Bauxite mathesond) - apparently San Diego, Colorado, and Tampa are also making inquiries. Laird is 26 years old and has a .224 lifetime average in 81 games, which seems to make him a hot commodity.

Jays fans regularly dream of bringing a Big Scary Bat to town, and two of the names that often appear on the wish list are Adam Dunn and Justin Morneau. What would it take?

Bear this in mind - Cincinnati is looking to dump salary, and Minnesota is never interested in taking on salary. So you can pretty much forget about including Batista and Hinske in a Dunn trade. The Reds would more likely be calling out names like Chacin and Bush and McGowan. As for the Twins, they are very well stocked in young pitching - just wait til you all get a look at Francisco Liriano - but they have problems in the infield. And the outfield. And scoring runs in general. So I expect the first words out of Terry Ryan's mouth would be "Aaron Hill. For starters."

I don't know that anyone around here has had much to say about it, but baseball does have a shiny new steroid policy, that calls for a 50 game suspension for a first offense, a 100 game suspension for a second offense, and... well, three strikes and You're Out, of course. Possibly even more earth-shaking, however, will be the testing for amphetamines - the first penalty for being caught will be mandatory additional testing - a second offense will cost 25 games, a third offense will cost 80 games. Jeff Blair is all over this:

Wait until you see the dog days of August played out without the benefits of 'beanies' or 'greenies' or 'clubhouse coffee.' I'm going to say what a whole lot of people are thinking: A cleaner game is not necessarily going to be a better game, and I wonder how many fans realize it.

With everybody "playing naked", as the players call it, two things to look for - will this have more of an effect on older players? Are they more likely to run down without help (especially if they've come to rely on it?). Or perhaps older players will have a better idea on how to pace themselves through the long season. Secondly, does this mean that a wise manager will use his bench players more than in the past, and make sure his regulars are getting plenty of rest?

Baseball America listed the compensation types for free agents in their lastest 'Ask BA':

Type A		
Wilson Alvarez (LAD)	Tom Gordon (NYY)	Joe Randa (SD)
Brad Ausmus (Hou)	Mark Grudzielanek (StL)	Al Reyes (StL)
A.J. Burnett (Fla)	Ramon Hernandez (SD)	Kenny Rogers (Tex)
Jeromy Burnitz (ChC)	Trevor Hoffman (SD)	B.J. Ryan (Bal)
Royce Clayton (Ari)	Bob Howry (Cle)	        Rudy Seanez (SD)
Roger Clemens (Hou)	Todd Jones (Fla)	Julian Tavarez (StL)
Jeff Conine (Fla)	Paul Konerko (CWS)	Ugueth Urbina (Phi)
Johnny Damon (Bos)	Matt Lawton (NYY)	Billy Wagner (Phi)
Octavio Dotel (Oak)	Braden Looper (NYM)	Larry Walker (StL)
Erubiel Durazo (Oak)	Kevin Millar (Bos)	Jeff Weaver (LAD)
Scott Eyre (SF)	        Bengie Molina (LAA)	Rondell White (Det)
Kyle Farnsworth (Atl)	Matt Morris (StL)	Bob Wickman (Cle)
Rafael Furcal (Atl)	Bill Mueller (Bos)	Tim Worrell (Ari). 
Brian Giles (SD)	Mike Piazza (NYM)	
			
Type B		
Antonio Alfonseca (Fla)	Rick Helling (Mil)	Todd Pratt (Phi)
Rich Aurilia (Cin)	Roberto Hernandez (NYM)	Felix Rodriguez (NYY)
Paul Byrd (LAA)	        Jason Johnson (Det)	Reggie Sanders (StL)
Hector Carrasco (Was)	Jacque Jones (Min)	J.T. Snow (SF)
Elmer Dessens (LAD)	Al Leiter (NYY)	        Sammy Sosa (Bal)
Cal Eldred (StL)	Esteban Loaiza (Was)	Russ Springer (Hou)
Juan Encarnacion (Fla)	Kenny Lofton (Phi)	Frank Thomas (CWS)
Shawn Estes (Ari)	Brian Meadows (Pit)	Brett Tomko (SF)
Carl Everett (CWS)	Jim Mecir (Fla)	        Michael Tucker (Phi)
Julio Franco (Atl)	Jose Mesa (Pit)	        Daryle Ward (Pit)
Nomar Garciaparra (ChC)	Dan Miceli (Col)	Jarrod Washburn (LAA)
Alex Gonzalez (Fla)	Kevin Millwood (Cle)	Bernie Williams (NYY)
Todd Greene (Col)	Jamie Moyer (Sea)	Preston Wilson (Was)
Chris Hammond (SD)	Mike Myers (Bos)	Eric Young (SD)
Scott Hatteberg (Oak)	Rafael Palmeiro (Bal)	
			
Type C		
Joey Eischen (Was)		
Scott Elarton (Cle)		
Abraham Nunez (StL)
The Jays will owe compensation for any Type A or Type B free agent signed that is offered arbitration by their former team. The deadline to offer arbitration is December 7th. Further detail can be found at the BA link above.

Ah. Never a dull moment.

This Day In Baseball: Weekend Edition | 113 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Saturday, November 19 2005 @ 09:13 AM EST (#132474) #
Coach favourite Pete Laforest was DFAed by Tampa. Hmm.
Anders - Saturday, November 19 2005 @ 12:10 PM EST (#132481) #
A couple of things. If the Yankees are offering Brian Giles 3/33 to play cf, I would rather pay this money and make a hard run at someone else. (BJ?) than pay 5/55 to AJ. I think the consensus is that we need more hitting than pitching.

Brian Giles home line last year: .267/.368/.417 with 12 2b, 6 hr and 31 rbi
Brian Giles road line last year: .333/.463/.545 with 26 2b, 9 hr and 52 rbi.

The Skydome played at 1.152 last year. Petco played at 0.837. In other words, even if he starts into his natural decline phase, this is likely to be offset by the move to the skydome, and he probably will hit closer to the road line than the home line.


Also, Florida might be making a mistake unless theyre getting a top flight prospect.

Blalock OPS
2003: .872
2004: .855
2005: .749

Although he's turning 25 in a week.
6-4-3 - Saturday, November 19 2005 @ 12:45 PM EST (#132482) #
. . . having already lost out on Scott Eyre, the Bombers are now looking at Kyle Farnsworth . . .
Immediate reaction?

"I see before me the possibility of a perfectly heavenly enchantment and spectacle :--it seems to me to scintillate with all the vibrations of a fine and delicate beauty, and within it there is an art so divine, so infernally divine, that one might search in vain for thousands of years for another such possibility; I see a spectacle so rich in significance and at the same time so wonderfully full of paradox that it should arouse all the [baseball] gods on Olympus to immortal laughter--Kyle Farnsworth as Yankee!"

Baseball Santa needs to deliever on this one. Farnsworth. A-Rod. Varitek. Manny. The combination of these forces could lead to the greatest basebrawl moment in history.

More seriously, if the Texas / Florida trade goes through, which player would the Marlins be getting? The .316/.382/.560 hitter, or the .243/.300/407 guy? Or would Blalock's numbers look even worse when he's playing in Pro Player?

One thing that this roundup missed was Blair's comment that JP wants to lockup Shea to a multiyear deal, but is being delayed because some teams are inquiring into his availablity. I wouldn't mind if JP traded Shea, but I wonder what his trade value is right now.

Mike D - Saturday, November 19 2005 @ 12:49 PM EST (#132483) #
I would not trade Aaron Hill for Justin Morneau this offseason. Period. Morneau requires a risk-related discount.

Morneau was dreadful in May, June, July, August and September. Have pitchers figured him out? Was he injured? Would either alternative be comforting?

Tread carefully around Mr. Morneau. There are surer bets out there.
Mike D - Saturday, November 19 2005 @ 12:52 PM EST (#132484) #
On another note, the New York media is coming around to the possibility that the Jays may land AJ and BJ.

The fact that this is -- though not quite probable -- possible is a tribute to the state of the Jays' organization.
Cristian - Saturday, November 19 2005 @ 12:56 PM EST (#132485) #
I'd trade Hill for Morneau in a heartbeat. Yes, Morneau comes with risk. However, doesn't Hill? Hill wasn't spectacular with the bat after his hot start. The potential reward with Morneau far outweighs the risk that he's too injured or too figured out.
Mike Green - Saturday, November 19 2005 @ 01:09 PM EST (#132487) #
A multi-year contract for Hillenbrand? 5/55 for AJ? Hill for Morneau? I think I'll go for a soda, instead.
SK in NJ - Saturday, November 19 2005 @ 01:20 PM EST (#132488) #
Blalock's road OPS per year...

2002: .482
2003: .736
2004: .783
2005: .611

Moving to Pro Player certainly won't help him.

Man, it's only November 19. Still a long way to go before significant moves are made.
Rob - Saturday, November 19 2005 @ 01:32 PM EST (#132491) #
Mike, may I join you in your soda-getting?

Hillenbrand's 2005 wasn't significantly different from 2004. And I wasn't enthralled with his 2004. What you see is what you get -- is .300/.345/.450 really the best the Jays can get from their first baseman when the average AL 1B hit .270/.342/.452?

It's not just first base:
Avg. AL 2B: .271/.325/.412
Hudson: .271/.315/.412
Hill: .274/.342/.385
Adams: .256/.325/.383
Avg. AL SS: .276/.333/.406

That infield is not average offensively. It's depressingly average. (I know Hudson's defense is other-wordly, but it's just bizarre that his line is so...average.)
Pistol - Saturday, November 19 2005 @ 01:44 PM EST (#132493) #
The free agent types are now known (and tacked on to the end of the original post).

It'll be interesting to see if SF takes the two free picks that they'll get if they offer arbitration to Scott Eyre.

Most of the second tier (or lower) players likely won't sign prior to the December 7th deadline because the teams that will sign them will want to know what, if any, compensation will be due.

TJ Caino - Saturday, November 19 2005 @ 02:15 PM EST (#132495) #
643, Nick mentiopned it in the last thread. I'll paste his nice summary:

**here is Blair's latest blog entry:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20051101.wblai/BNStory/Sports/

Key points that haven't already been mentioned:

- Jays have not formally offered 5 years and $50 million to Burnett because JP knows that will not get it done. He has told AJ's agent to get back to after he gets his best offer. My take: This is sounding more and more like a disaster situation, but I will hold my tongue until an actual transaction takes place. It is stupid to rip something that hasn't happened yet and may never happen.

- Carl Pavano already wants out of NY, a la Vazquez.

- BJ Ryan's visit went pretty well - contrary to what the Star reported the other day. "Ryan has told friends that he is impressed with the Blue Jays and the city of Toronto and that he believes the visit to Toronto last week went surprisingly well."

- Expect to see Reed Johnson and Scott Downs signed to new deals "within a matter of days."

- Jays will try to sign Hillenbrand to multi-year contract but will take their time so they can sort through the trade offers coming in for him.

- "Yankees owner George Steinbrenner is not pleased that his team has been unable to make a strike in the free-agent market and will read the riot act to the front office this weekend in Tampa."
Anders - Saturday, November 19 2005 @ 03:23 PM EST (#132498) #
Jason Alfaro is no longer a Blue Jay.

Pirates signed infielder Jason Alfaro to a minor league contract.
The Blue Jays were eager to take a look at Alfaro a year ago, but he disappointed in spring training, and his Triple-A line went from .325/.363/.477 with New Orleans in 2004 to .247/.285/.394 with Syracuse. He'll likely begin next season at Indianapolis.

from rw.
Anders - Saturday, November 19 2005 @ 03:29 PM EST (#132499) #
Also - live GameDay of Canada/U.S. right now. Canada lost against Mexico yesterday, but I believe they are through no matter what.

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/index.jsp
Cristian - Saturday, November 19 2005 @ 04:07 PM EST (#132502) #
Jason Alfaro is a guy I thought could contribute at the major league level based on what he did in New Orleans, a severe pitchers' park. I didn't expect he'd have such an awful year at Syracuse. I fully expected him to force himself into the middle infielder mix in Toronto. At minimum I thought he'd make Menechino expendable. Hopefully he'll get his career on track in Pittsburgh. It shouldn't be too hard to outhit Freddy Sanchez and Flapjack.
Jim - Saturday, November 19 2005 @ 06:11 PM EST (#132503) #
'Jays will try to sign Hillenbrand to multi-year contract but will take their time so they can sort through the trade offers coming in for him.'


I can't imagine what these are, but if they get anything of real value for him and quite an ROI on the original trade. A pretty good season coupled with additional players in a trade for virtually nothing.
Jordan - Saturday, November 19 2005 @ 08:01 PM EST (#132505) #
The fact that this is -- though not quite probable -- possible is a tribute to the state of the Jays' organization.

Extremely well said, Mike. It's a completely different world from just two seasons ago.

I've been wondering about the Jays' off-season strategy ... it's become pretty clear to me that AJ Burnett is Ricciardi's great white whale, and that he'll move earth and at least parts of heaven to get him. If he does so, at something like 5 years/$60M -- and again I say, yikes -- then you have Halladay, Burnett, Chacin, Towers and Lilly as a potent front five, with Bush, Batista and even Downs as potential extra starters.

I wonder if a Burnett signing would make possible a deal where two of these guys get sent elsewhere for a bat, and if that's one the reasons JP is so determined to land Burnett -- he would provide rotation depth and hence trading-floor flexibility. I would think that a Chacin-Bush package would get a lot of teams interested, and if Brandon League is added, interest would rise again. Landing Ryan as well would allow the Jays to move Batista to the back of the rotation -- meaning that the team could trade 2/5 of its 2005 rotation and conceivably end up with an equally effective front five (Halladay, Burnett, Towers, a healthy Lilly and a pressure-free Batista -- though I'd happily insert Frasor as closer instead to achieve the same end).

The longer I look at it, the less I think Brian Giles, or any free-agent bat, is going to end up in Toronto. I think the offence is going to come through the trade wire, and that that's why Ricciardi is going so hard after the high-end free-agent pitchers. It might not be the strategy I'd employ, but if that's what they're aiming for, it's certainly not the worst idea in the world.

Ron - Saturday, November 19 2005 @ 08:09 PM EST (#132506) #
At this early point of FA, I'm just excitied the Jays are connected to some of the bigger name FA's out there. Of course if none of them sign here, than it means nothing, but I at least have hope right now.

I believe most of the major moves will go down during the Winter Meetings, so I'm really looking foward to that.

And unlike last year, I'm pretty sure you won't see Marty York daily on RSN news.
Gerry - Saturday, November 19 2005 @ 08:24 PM EST (#132507) #
Re: Alfaro. I cannot remember the exact sequence, either he reported heavy last year, got injured, and was injured on and off for the year, or, he got injured early, became heavy, and then got injured again.

In any event Alfaro never realised on his potential last year.
Gerry - Saturday, November 19 2005 @ 08:28 PM EST (#132508) #
We all know the Jays budget has gone up this year and JP has two ways to spend his money. He can sign free agents or trade for higher salary players. The trade part could happen but there are few, if any, teams trying to dump payroll this winter. I cannot name one. Most teams are looking for value for value trades.

Some names that the Jays could be interested in have been floating around, Mench, Overbay, Morneau, Dunn, but none of them would use up the Jays $20 million. If JP does not sign some of the premier free agents he could be left with cash in his pocket.
birdwatcher - Saturday, November 19 2005 @ 08:31 PM EST (#132509) #
Five ďeasyĒ steps to Blue Jay success:

1. Sign AJ Burnett, at 12x5 if necessary (and no, thatís
not the Rolling Stones album).
2. Delgado is in play, so go get him. Offer Lilly and
Hinske. If thatís not enough, top it up with the likes
of Gross and/or League.
3. Get Craig Monroe or Adam Dunn or somebody similar.
Offer Bush, McGowan and the Cat.
4. Get Kevin Mench for Batista, Rios and prospects if
necessary.
5. Either sign Jason Johnson as a No.5 starter or put Downs
in the rotation and sign Chris Hammond or Mike Myers for
the bullpen.

Batting Order:
Adams/Hill, Hillenbrand, Wells, Delgado, Dunn/Monroe, Mench, Koskie, Zaun, Hudson.

Bench:
Johnson, Adams/Hill, McDonald, Quiroz

Starting pitching:
Doc, AJ, Towers, Chacin, No.5 (Johnson/Downs)

In the pen:
Closer: Frasor/Speier
RH Set-up: Frasor/Speier and Chulk
LH Set-up: Downs or Hammond/Myers and Schoenweis
Longmen: Two of Marcum, Walker or AAA surprise (Rosario, Arnold ?)
Nolan - Saturday, November 19 2005 @ 09:16 PM EST (#132510) #
"Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to Texas for Hank Blalock and a pitching prospect."

I'm in favour of JP going hard after Burnett, but I'd much rather have Beckett and Lowell than Burnett....And this would be for considerably less money.

I am curious if the Marlins would consider a package from the Jays along the lines of Shea or Koskie, a middle infielder [Adams/Hill] a reliever [Chulk?] and David Bush? I realize that Blalock's name carries a lot of weight, but as some here have already pointed out, he is not a fair trade for Beckett, it's clearly a salary dump.

Heck, if the Jays could swing this deal, they could possibly still run at Burnett. If I recall correctly, Lowell is making around 8 or 9 million a year, leaving around 11 or 12 a year for AJ.

Imagine:

Doc
AJ
Beckett
Lilly
Chacin
Towers
Downs

I'm sure JP could find a way to then turn around and flip a couple of the extra starters for another bat. Lilly and League for Johny Gomes?

Lowell may even rebound; his situation reminds me a little of Morgan Ensberg who had a terrible season in 2004 and then came back strong in '05.

King Ryan - Saturday, November 19 2005 @ 09:27 PM EST (#132512) #
You know, I love these "Let's trade a bunch of things we don't want for something we do!" trades. Quantity means nothing in a trade. If one crap player isn't going to get it done, then neither will 5 crap players.
TimberLee - Saturday, November 19 2005 @ 09:30 PM EST (#132513) #
Sure, it could, as long as the Royals are around. They collect them.
Ron - Saturday, November 19 2005 @ 10:15 PM EST (#132514) #
King Ryan, I agree. A lot of the trade suggestions I read here and on other sites crack me up.

They're are so slanted in the Jays favor, it would be like a Rangers fan suggesting they trade Kevin Mench and Chris Young for Doc.

Or how about a Reds fans suggesting they trade Eric Milton and Austin Kearns for Doc and Wells.

If the main piece of your proposal is Hill, Adams, Koskie, Chacin, Bush, League, or Batista, the chances of getting a star player in return is slim to none.
King Ryan - Saturday, November 19 2005 @ 11:08 PM EST (#132515) #
People don't seem to realize that if a team is going to accept 4 players in a deal, then they have to clear four roster spots for those players. You can only play one position at a time!

People seem to think that 3 mediocre players = 1 superstar, but unless it's MVP Baseball, that's just not going to work. Even if you offered 10 mediocre players, it wouldn't return you a superstar, because nobody wants to clear roster spots for 10 new players! Quantity means nothing in real-life trades.

So, while Bush for Dunn is a dumb proposal, Down+Downs for Dunn isn't any better!
Twilight - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 12:26 AM EST (#132516) #
Well, that all depends. It looks like Florida is going to lose a lot of players to free agency. The Beckett/Lowell package seems definitely like a salary dump, and they are going to want pitching back as without Beckett and AJ they are going to have 2 spots open in their rotation. So a Chacin/Bush/reliever package would benefit them because those 3 players together only take about $1m of salary and for the performance you get from those guys, it's hard to say that's a bad deal for the rebuilding Marlins.
Nolan - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 12:31 AM EST (#132517) #
"You know, I love these "Let's trade a bunch of things we don't want for something we do!" trades. Quantity means nothing in a trade. If one crap player isn't going to get it done, then neither will 5 crap players."


I assume you're responding to my post.

First off, it's just fun to speculate. Second, I realize that quantity does not equal quality and that trades like I suggested require roster room. However, I do not agree that the trade proposal is any more slanted in the Jays favour than the reported Texas/Marlins proposed deal. I'd take Hill, Bush and Shea over Blalock any day...or at least some days. The Marlins would love to get young and cheap pitching in Bush, a good third baseman in Shea and an infielder like Hill (they had problems in their infield last year).

Maybe Chacin instead of Bush would have been a better option for the Marlins.

[I suggested Chulk as a fourth player in the deal as the Marlins had trouble with their pen last year, but he probably has little trade value....]
Nolan - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 12:39 AM EST (#132518) #
"so, while Bush for Dunn is a dumb proposal, Down+Downs for Dunn isn't any better!"

If I may be a petty for a second, I think this is a bad example of your point [which I do agree with...].

The Reds are in desperate need of pitching as well as keeping their payroll done, so the situation MAY be that the Reds would perfer 3 good, young [and cheap] starters over 1 very good starter in exchange for Dunn. I think the Reds would jump at Lilly, Bush and Chacin for Dunn (providing we help with Lilly's salary a bit). Whether one wants to trade away all the depth on the staff is another question.

In the case of trying to pry Howard from the Phillies, it would be more a case of having to give up a higher quality player for him. I think it's very possible that Howard is going to bring a better return than Dunn will.

In the end however, I really have absolutely no idea what really goes on in the world of general managers and may be miles from the truth in my opinions.
CSHunt68 - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 02:17 AM EST (#132520) #
Yeah, which trade suggestions, in particular, crack you guys up?
bird droppings - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 07:12 AM EST (#132522) #
Anything with Hinske in it.

We don't want him, why would anybody else?

Sure he's not nearly as bad as people make him out to be and I'm sure GM's realize this but he's extremely overpaid. Even if we pay most of his salary he's only worth a medicore prospect.

Bush, Chacin, Hills, Adams, Downs are all nobodies. Sure they've turned a few heads this past season but some of you in crazy drunk land feel they're studs when in reality they're medicore, unproven players. In conclusion, alot of the above deals are offering risks (especially the pitchers) for studs. Not. Gunna. Happen.
Named For Hank - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 09:41 AM EST (#132526) #
Yeah, which trade suggestions, in particular, crack you guys up?

Any trade that's obviously the poster's three least-favourite Jays for someone good. Usually Hinske-Batista-Koskie, the Three Whipping Boys of the Apocalypse.
JayFan0912 - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 09:43 AM EST (#132527) #
I think that quantity can match quality - in this market. Look at how much it costs to acquire a guy like burnet. Dunn is going to cost a lot of money in the next few years, if he chooses to stay with the reds, which he probably wont. The reds will get offered top prospects, or maginal starters for Dunn. I don't think anyone will trade a young ace for Dunn.

IMO, bush, chacin, and batista are somewhat more established than a top flight prospect. Chacin for instance pitched 200+ innings in the AL east, with a sub 4 era. Clement, earning over 25 times as much did not, and there is no guarantee that any prospect will work out. I think of the giants pitching prospects from a few years ago, what happened to foppert, williams, etc.

Also, I think the angels and blue jays are a better fit for a trade. It seems like the angels need a few starters, a 3B/DH to split time with McPherson, and have a pretty good prospect at 1B.
XooM - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 09:53 AM EST (#132528) #
"Cubs sign Eyre $11 million (performance bonuses could kick it up to $13.4 million."

Wow... is Eyre really worth that much these days? If he is, then BJ Ryan must be close to double that? That doesnt sound good for the Jays.
CSHunt68 - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 10:17 AM EST (#132529) #
"Bush, Chacin, Hills, Adams, Downs are all nobodies. Sure they've turned a few heads this past season but some of you in crazy drunk land feel they're studs when in reality they're medicore, unproven players. In conclusion, alot of the above deals are offering risks (especially the pitchers) for studs. Not. Gunna. Happen."

You are certifiable if you think those guys you've listed don't have trade value. It's always about finding the right fit. Certainly not EVERY team is going to want those guys, but give me a break.
Two words for you.
Puh. Lease.
Jim - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 11:03 AM EST (#132531) #
Which one cracked me up?

How about:

3. Get Craig Monroe or Adam Dunn or somebody similar.
Offer Bush, McGowan and the Cat.


This one is funny for a couple of reasons. First, Adam Dunn is lumped in with Craig Monroe. Dunn has 158 major league HR and turned 26 less then 2 weeks ago. Dunn has a career line of 383/518 and a career OPS+ of 132.

Monroe has 64 career home runs and turns 29 in February. His career line is 313/453 and sports the robust OPS+ of 102. You can find a dozen players similiar to Monroe without trading anything of real value.

Secondly the idea that you are going to get Adam Dunn for a pitcher who hasn't shown he's back from TJ surgery, a finesse right hander and Frank Catalanotto is pretty funny.

If you want to throw around names like Adam Dunn you better be prepared to trade 3 at least grade B+ prospects if you aren't trading young cheap major league ready players. Something like McGowan, Purcey, League, and Lind might get you in the conversation.
Mike Green - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 11:09 AM EST (#132532) #
Milestone birthdays today for Jay Johnstone, J.D. Drew and Rick Monday. Funny...there are some similarities between Drew and Monday on the field. Monday was fast when he arrived, but lost his speed in record time.
Jim - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 11:12 AM EST (#132533) #
'Bush, Chacin, Hills, Adams, Downs are all nobodies'

I certainly disagree with this. Downs you can throw out, he has no trade value.

Chacin is left-handed and threw 200 above average innings in 2005. I think he could be the second piece in a trade for a 'star'.

I also see a lot of value in Aaron Hill, it was a season with a peak and a valley, but a .342 OBP at the age of 23 is certainly promising. I think he's ahead of Adams both with the bat and with the glove.

I think that a trade with Hill, Chacin and someone like McGowan or League could bring back a very good player.

I'm just guessing but Adams would be behind those two players because of questions about his defense.

Bush has two problems, there might be a perception that he doesn't get along with Gibbons so you lose some leverage, and there is always a prejudice against right-handers with his velocity.

No one of those players is bringing back a lineup changing offensive player, but in combinations those 4 all have at least some value, and I feel a couple of them have good value.
Grasshopper - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 01:44 PM EST (#132538) #
Why would we trade so much future talent. So that we could do slighty better next year. I think that is a very bad idea. when guys like Chacin and Hill mature a bit they could be big stars. Toronto wont win the series next year so why blow our chances for years down the road.
Magpie - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 02:17 PM EST (#132540) #
Toronto won't win the series next year

Here is how the last few World Series champs did the season before they won the big prize.

Chicago White Sox in 2004: 83-79
Boston Red Sox in 2003: 95-67
Florida Marlins in 2002: 79-83
Anaheim Angels in 2001: 75-87
Arizona Diamondbacks in 2000: 85-77

Hmmm.

King Ryan - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 02:34 PM EST (#132541) #
Nolan, I wasn't referring to you in particular. It was a general comment directord towards the countless proposals I've seen since the off-season began. I'm referring to any proposal where you are trading player you don't want for a superstar.

In particular? How about:

"Delgado is in play, so go get him. Offer Lilly and
Hinske. If thatís not enough, top it up with the likes
of Gross and/or League. "

So to get Delgado, we are going to trade a pitcher nobody wants and a third baseman nobody wants. And if that doesn't get it done, we "top it up" with a 27 year old who's played 84 MLB games, or a pitcher that has a 5.80 career ERA.

The only player that has any value in that trade is League, because he's young and has good stuff. But he got hit hard last year, and the Marlins know that.

If you want to get an Adam Dunn or a Carlos Delgado, be prepared to lose someone you want to keep. I realize the Marlins are rebuilding, but at the very least they are going to ask for something like Wells+Jackson.
TJ Caino - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 02:46 PM EST (#132542) #
This website is better than most when it comes to having intelligent commentary. Most other sites are riddled with absurd trade proposals, petty arguments, and of course, tons of emoticons.
Blue in SK - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 02:49 PM EST (#132543) #
From the Palm Beach Post - "The original proposal also called for Texas to send Florida one of two pitching prospects ó John Danks or Thomas Diamond, both first-round draft picks. But the Rangers' front office has balked at losing either pitcher and is now trying to find a way to finish the deal. One option is for Texas to dangle first baseman Adrian Gonzalez as trade bait to a third team for pitchers to flip to Florida."

I know a team that has some good young pitching prospects and could use a 1st baseman. But, just quickly looking over his minor league stats, he doesn't seem like a real power prospect. Maybe I'm missing something?
King Ryan - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 02:57 PM EST (#132544) #
Not sure where you get that impression.

He hit 18 HR in half a season in the PCL. That's quite powerful. At the end of the year, the league leader in HR's had 31 of them. If Gonzalez had stayed in the minors all year, he probably would have beaten that easily.
Jacko - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 03:37 PM EST (#132545) #
Probably because before 2005, Gonzalez never hit for any kind of power. He looks like the second coming of Mark Grace.
That isn't terrible, but an offensively weak team like the Jays needs a lot more offense out of the 1B position.
Blue in SK - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 03:42 PM EST (#132546) #
Using this link,

http://cbs.sportsline.com/mlb/players/playerpage/288903

Adrian's only hit 51 in over 2100 minor league ABs. His career (minor league) line is 289/359/431. He looks like a good player, just not a great one. I must note I could not find his 2005 numbers.

My real question though is should the Jays look at this seriously?
Rob - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 03:54 PM EST (#132547) #
Adrian Gonzalez's profile at The Baseball Cube. He hit .338/.399/.561 in 84 games this year for Oklahoma (PCL).
Jdog - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 04:12 PM EST (#132549) #
King Ryan

As I am sure you are aware, the Marlins are trading Delgado as a way of getting out of his big contact that was back loaded, thus they are not going to ask Wells and Jackson...frankly that sounds absurd to trade a great CF who is underpaid for a huge contract. The Marlins are most likely going to ask for a couple nice prospects or may be just willing to dump him to get rid of the salary(ala Hillenbrand for Peterson).

King Ryan - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 04:19 PM EST (#132550) #
Jdog

And you don't think that other teams are going to be interested in Delgado? Please. If the Jays offer is Lilly and Gross, you can be damn sure that some team is going to offer something better.
Dylan - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 04:25 PM EST (#132551) #
"So to get Delgado, we are going to trade a pitcher nobody wants and a third baseman nobody wants. And if that doesn't get it done, we "top it up" with a 27 year old who's played 84 MLB games, or a pitcher that has a 5.80 career ERA."

I'd agree that nobody wants Hinskie, but Lilly Id have to disagree. Even tho he had a up and down year, he still seems to have value. The Phillies offered Howard for him near the beggining of the year, has his value diminished that much. Another thing with Delgado, isnt it a salary dump on a highly backloaded contract, I think Florida is looking for money rather than great players (to a degree). But isn't his salary the reason we got rid of him in the first place.
Jdog - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 04:31 PM EST (#132552) #
Lilly and Gross are not "nice prospects" . in my opinion thats what will be traded for Delgado...they are looking for good prospects or else young cheap players....of course Lilly and Gross aint going to do it....put suggesting that they would require Wells and Jackson is absurd in my mind(maybe I'm out to lunch) but i think they would happily take a Mcgowan and Hill combo to get out of his contract so they can sign Willis and Cabrera long term.

In fact if they pulled off a deal like that, they would come out like bandits. I mean they sign a free agent to a huge contract, the first year of which is peanuts. They get great production for that cheap year and then flip him for a couple great prospects......thats 7 or 8 million(whatever they paid the first year) dollars well spent.
Jacko - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 05:09 PM EST (#132554) #
Nobody thinks that Lilly and Hinske would bring in a premium hitter with no baggage.

However, both Delgado (48 MM over 3 years) and Thome (46 MM over 3 years) have significant salary baggage. The Marlins and Phillies are crazy if they think they can get premium players or prospects in return for them. Which means they might have to settle a package that includes someone like Hinske or Lilly if they want to get some salary relief.

I see three "classes" of players who are expendable on the Jays:

1. Chacin/Bush/Towers: decent, cheap, back of the rotation starters who don't have filthy stuff. There's so much pitching coming through the system in the next few years there won't be room for all of them.

2. Lilly/Batista/Hinske: decent players who are overpaid relative to their performance.

3. Hudson/Adams/Hill: young middle infielders with lots of potential. Yes, Hudson doesn't quite fit this mold, but I think we can all agree that his bat is most charitably described as "having potential".

Take one player from each class, and I think you have more than enough to get back a Delgado or Thome.

If the free agent market proves to be fruitless this offseason, it might not be a bad deal to make.

Cristian - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 05:19 PM EST (#132555) #
It's because the free agent class is so fruitless this year that teams like the Phillies and Marlins aren't crazy to think they can pry premium prospects from teams.
greenfrog - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 05:50 PM EST (#132556) #
I would add a fourth class of tradable players: talented young pitching prospects. McGowan, Purcey, Romero, Banks, Janssen, League, Marcum, Rosario, Jackson (I may have missed a couple). There is likely a market for some of these players, although most seem to be mid-rotation prospects at best.
King Ryan - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 06:09 PM EST (#132558) #
If you think that Wells and Zach Jackson is an "absurd" price for an elite hitter like Carlos Delgado, then I think you're overrating Wells and Jackson.

I'm not saying I would do that trade, by the way.
CaramonLS - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 06:13 PM EST (#132559) #
If Philly even thinks they could put Thome on waivers right now and have him picked up, they'd be insane.
Lefty - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 06:20 PM EST (#132560) #
Thats spot on CLS. Thome and Delgado's salary for 2006 are overmarket value. The reason Florida secured Delgado is the were willing to pay more for him than any other team.

I can't see anything that changes this factor. I wouldn't offer more than Hinske in order to balance out the salaries a wee bit and Florida still gets a dump.
The Bone - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 06:32 PM EST (#132561) #
Wow - if some people believe Delgado, at age 33 and making 16 million for the next three seasons, could fetch a package like Vernon Wells and Zach Jackson, then these people must really believe J.P. dropped the ball when he was trying to cut salary and had the 30-32 year old version of Delgado at 18 million a year (at the very least the same value of player) and didn't trade him for a young star and a solid prospect
King Ryan - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 06:57 PM EST (#132564) #
Delgado makes, what, 14M next year? If he was a free agent, you don't think he'd get that much? Considering Paul Konerko was offered 4/52, and he is vastly inferior to Delgado, I would have to disagree. I don't think Delgado is overpaid much at all, and I think there are more than a few teams interested in him.

THAT is why I think he'd fetch a pretty nice package, because teams will be bidding for him.

I don't see how you can compare Delgado to Thome since Delgado had a healthy, productive season while Thome did not.

I think you guys are blowing some things well out of proportion. It's not like Delgado makes 20M next year and hit .230 last year.
King Ryan - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 07:03 PM EST (#132565) #
then these people must really believe J.P. dropped the ball when he was trying to cut salary and had the 30-32 year old version of Delgado at 18 million a year (at the very least the same value of player) and didn't trade him for a young star and a solid prospect

First off, "these people" = me. Don't beat around the bush.

Second of all, Delgado had a no-trade clause and refused to waive it. Otherwise he probably would have traded him for a pretty neat package.

Third of all, I, again, think you're overrating Vernon Wells. He's a good defender, but I would hardly call him a "young star" at this point.

Whatever though, if you guys really think Delgado will get traded for an Aaron Hill and a Ted Lilly, then I guess we'll just have to disagree. We'll see what he eventually goes for.

RhyZa - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 07:16 PM EST (#132566) #
King Ryan, in my opinion you're way off base here, unless they pick up some of Carlos' salary I think an offer to acquire him will be closer to what your opposition suggests than for 'star' players or blue chip prospects. And since when did Lilly, and especially Aaron Hill (??) become chopped liver... it's weird you seem to be the anti-homer.
VBF - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 07:28 PM EST (#132567) #
Where have we seen this before?

Loria's going to destroy another team. He plans on cutting payroll by 25 million down to 40 million.

King Ryan - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 07:37 PM EST (#132568) #
Ted Lilly has always been chopped liver. The Jays got him for Bobby Kielty. Maybe I'm underrating Hill, but the only people who seem to think he is (going to be) excellent are Jays fans.

Again, we'll see what Delgado goes for. I won't have a problem admitting I'm wrong if he ends up getting traded for something similar to what my "opposition" suggests.
slitheringslider - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 07:51 PM EST (#132569) #
Third of all, I, again, think you're overrating Vernon Wells. He's a good defender, but I would hardly call him a "young star" at this point.

He is 26 years old and has averaged about 30HRs, 100RBIs along with playing gold glove caliber defence in CF (not necessarily a common place for big boppers). He is definitely one of the top CF in the major leagues. The only player that I would take over Vernon Wells in CF without hesitation is Andruw Jones.

So yes, I would say Vernon Wells is a young star in baseball and would have a very good trade value because he would still be relatively cheap for the next couple years.
Named For Hank - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 07:56 PM EST (#132570) #
The Phillies offered Howard for him near the beggining of the year, has his value diminished that much.

Didn't J.P. say that this was false when he was asked about it?
King Ryan - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 07:56 PM EST (#132571) #
Okay.

Maybe I went a little bit overboard. But my original point still stands. Any trade "proposal" where you're offering players you don't like/want for a player you do is a silly one. Lilly+Hinske+Gross isn't going to get you Delgado. That was the actual suggestion offered up in this very thread.

I do not think that Delgado's value is anywhere near as low as Jim Thome's, and I expect that the Marlins will get some pretty good players in return for him.

Vernon Wells is overrated, but that's a different discussion for a different day.
Jacko - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 08:03 PM EST (#132572) #
BTW, I think trading McGowan is completly nuts.

If he fails to pan out as a starter, he will make a tremendous closer.

If we must deal a live young arm, then it should be League, who hasn't yet figured out how to get K's with his 100 MPH fastball..
Jacko - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 08:13 PM EST (#132573) #
Let's get the disinformation about Delgado's contract out of the way. I've seen people throwing around all kinds of inaccurate figures in this thread.

The Marlins signed him to a 52 MM dollar 4-year contract that was heavily backloaded (4MM in 2005 and 48 MM in 2006-2008). Effectively, he's owed 16 MM per year for the next three years. And the Marlins want to get rid of that contract.

At current market rates, 16 MM is _way_ too much for a player of Delgado's age and position. Which leaves the Marlins in a crappy bargaining position when it comes to asking for premium prospects or MLB players.
Flex - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 08:20 PM EST (#132575) #
My prediction: the Marlins will eat precisely $9 mil of Delgado's remaining contract, which will cut his per-year average to a reasonable $13 mil, and will finish off the Marlins' financial commitment at $13 mil (4+9) which is what they should have paid him last year in the first place.
Jacko - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 08:21 PM EST (#132577) #
Ted Lilly has always been chopped liver. The Jays got him for Bobby Kielty.

Lilly was chopped liver in 2005, but he was an allstar in 2004.

He's a headcase, but when he's on he has pretty dominating stuff. Lots of K's, weak grounders, and popouts. Just a few too many walks.

He's got his flaws, but he's better than what a lot of teams are running out there every fifth day. Unless he gets an insane arbitration award (i.e. 5MM+) he's worth hanging on to. That is assuming his arm is ok...

King Ryan - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 08:33 PM EST (#132578) #
I am actually a fan of Ted Lilly. When he's *on* there's not many pitchers that are more fun to watch.

But, come on, let's face some facts. Lilly is 30 years old and has never pitched a 200 inning season. His career ERA+ is 97. He's a useful player, but I don't see how he's much better than, say, Brian Lawrence.

Lawrence was traded for Vinny Castilla, so that tells you how much value he has.
BallGuy - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 08:35 PM EST (#132579) #
Ted is so frustrating. Career 500 record, he is an unbeleivably streaky pitcher and it seems he is difficult to coach. I say (and have said before and will say again) trade him to A) free up some cash B) free up a spot in an apparently crowded rotation C) bring in a bat when Ted is traded as part of a package.
Lilly seems to have a lot of supporters but I don't get it. He's like a left handed version of Todd Stottlemyer; dominant for a few games, headcase for a few more games. But he apparently has value so get him outta here. Would Lilly, League and Hudson get the Jays Adam Dunn?
The Bone - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 08:56 PM EST (#132582) #
King Ryan, I don't see how you can argue Vernon Wells is not a young star - as another poster mentioned 30 HR and Gold Glove defence for a person entering their prime says star to me

And Delgado only refused to waive his no-trade clause in July 2004 because he didnt want to be a rental. I'd wager that when J.P. was brought on in 2002 and Delgado had 3 years on his contract at 18 per, he could have been talked into waiving his no-trade clause - and if J.P. could have got a Wells+Jackson esque package for him, he would have done it
slitheringslider - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 09:25 PM EST (#132583) #
King Ryan, I definitely agree with you that the idea of trading Lilly/Hinske/Gross for Delgado is a ridiculous idea and would never be realistic. A bunch of established mediocre players will never equate to a star.

However, I think you're overestimating Carlos Delgado's value and underestimating Vernon Wells' value. If I am JP I would definitely not trade VW for Delgado straight up. Delgado might be the superior hitter right now, but the little bit of extra production is not worth another 10 million dollars on the payroll. Also, we would have to factor in their respective defensive values and career progression. Delgado's production, at age 33, has nowhere to go but down. On the flip side, VW, at age 26, the worst I could imagine him do is maintain his current level of production (.270/30/100).

I don't think any team would trade a established young star for the likes of Carlos Delgado. Look for the team that wins the Delgado sweepstake to offer High Level Prospects on the verge of breaking out and a couple serviceable major league veterans. Young stars on the block are rare commodities, that's why the more I think about it, the more we should go after Adam Dunn, and hard.
JayFan0912 - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 09:37 PM EST (#132585) #
Not only is delgado signed for the next 3 years at 48 Million but he has a clause, so that if he is traded, you have to pick up the difference in tax (florida doesn't have a state tax). So this becomes more than 48 million -- perhaps 54-56 over 3 years.

Also, he has an option for a 5th year (I don't know it), but it didn't seem hard to attain. So this can be a 4 year commitment. Can you imagine a 38 year old delgado getting 18 Million per year ?

Lastly, the jays wont trade for delgado ... they let him go for all sorts of reasons. They tried hard to trade him at the deadline last year, and he didn't budge, he wanted an extension to become a mercenary. It would seem odd, for florida to get a slugger like delgado for $4 Million a season, and then the trading partner has to assume the remainder of the (HUGE) contract and give up a blue chip prospect. The jays didn't even get a compensatory draft pick for him.

Pistol - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 09:38 PM EST (#132587) #
Your AJ update:

Darek Braunecker, the agent for free agent A.J. Burnett, said the Mets will be the final team he talks with of the eight or nine who have expressed an interest in his client. The Mets have told Braunecker that they have other matters to address before they can begin discussions concerning the 28-year-old right-hander.

Braunecker thinks he'll talk with the Mets no later than next month's winter meetings in Dallas.

http://tinyurl.com/7m2kz
King Ryan - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 09:43 PM EST (#132588) #
slider, I think I need to clear something up post-haste. I am in no way advocating trading Vernon Wells for Carlos Delgado. I agree that would be an asinine deal to make. What I'm trying to say is that, in my opinion, the Marlins would want Wells if the Jays inquired about Delgado. Personally, I would think that if the Marlins can't get Wells, they probably won't be interested in dealing with the Jays, as I think other teams can give them better deals. Of course this is all conjecture, but the Jays farm system isn't as great as most fans seem to think it is. I have a hard time believing the Jays can outbid the Mets for Delgado without giving up a good player.

As for Wells, I don't want to hijack this thread with a discussion of how good Wells is, but, while you say he's a .270/30/100 hitter, I say his OPS ranked 9th out of 18 CFers that qualified for the batting title.
Smithers - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 09:51 PM EST (#132589) #
"Teams are purchasing player contracts in preparation for the Rule 5 Draft, and the Blue Jays have added Josh Banks and Ryan Roberts to the 40 man roster."

Has there been any word come out on who other teams are leaving exposed for the upcoming Rule V draft? It's been a while since the Jays kept a player around for the entire season after picking them up, but might this year buck the trend?
Mike Green - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 10:09 PM EST (#132590) #
The Jays' 40 man roster is full. They can't make a Rule 5 selection.

There are interesting players out there. For instance, Brandon Sing was left unprotected by the Cubbies, who lost Andy Sisco last year.
Mike Green - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 10:16 PM EST (#132593) #
One of the players the Pirates DFAed was Hacking Mass' favourite Tike Redman. Why does DFA sound more final than DOA?
slitheringslider - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 10:32 PM EST (#132597) #
King Ryan, by no means was I saying that you wanted to trade VW for Delgado. I absolutely agrees with you that trading for Delgado would not be a prudent move on the Jays part. Even if we do decide to go after him, I don't think we have the prospects that the Marlins would want for Delgado.

As for the issue regarding the Blue Jays farm system, I would also have to agree with you. The Blue Jays farm system has great pitching depth, but other than that, there are really nothing to brag about. There really aren't any players that I would salivate over in the Jays system. There are no Roy Halladays or even Vernon Wells within the Horizon.

As for Wells, I don't want to hijack this thread with a discussion of how good Wells is, but, while you say he's a .270/30/100 hitter, I say his OPS ranked 9th out of 18 CFers that qualified for the batting title.

I agree, therefore, this will be my last Wells comment. These are the eight players ranked above Vernon Wells in .OPS in that order

Ken Griffey Jr.
Andruw Jones
Jim Edmonds
Grady Sizemore
Johnny Damon
David DeJesus
Brady Clark
Preston Wilson

I said that out of all CF in the ML, I would only take Andruw Jones over VW without hesitation, and I stand behind my decision. .OPS is a good indicator of offensive production, but by no means is it an exact science, and to limit the evaluation of a player solely by looking at one stat would not produce an accurate evaluation. For example, I think we would all agree that the idea of David DeJesus being a superior player to Vernon Wells is absolutely ridiculous.

Although this following argument have no scientific background to it, I feel like that Vernon Wells under-performed last year and we should look for him to perform closer to his 2003 line than his 2005 line.
TamRa - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 10:57 PM EST (#132598) #
Don't forget any team acquiring Delgado is responsible for the income tax differential. that 16 million is going to be taxable at several million dollars in some locations.

Canada being one of them.
Pistol - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 11:03 PM EST (#132599) #
Here's a link to a thread with a number of potential Rule 5 picks (no roman numerals):

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2005/11/19/142150/79

I can't imagine the Jays taking someone even if there was room on the 40 man roster. The bullpen has no room to carry anyone and with John McDonald on the team there's no place for a position player.

Pistol - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 11:14 PM EST (#132600) #
The tax differences wouldn't be that great (at least in the US). He's already paying federal taxes so it'd just be the difference in state taxes which is around 5% in most cases. So at most I think you'd be looking at another million.
Ryan Day - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 11:16 PM EST (#132601) #
A couple points of reference for talk of trading for Big Contract players:

Randy Johnson was acquired for Javier Vazquez, Brad Halsey and Dioner Navarro, and cash. That's two decent, but not outstanding, prospects and a veteran who'd been absolutely shelled in NY.

Curt Schilling was acquired for Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon and Jorge de la Rosa. Again, decent prospects, but not exactly gangbusters.

Kevin Brown was acquired for Jeff Weaver and Yhency Brazoban - another guy who couldn't pitch in New York and a good relief prospect. Oh, and cash.

The moral of the story is that if a team wants to unload a player for salary or other reasons, they will take less in talent if it means clearing salary. Let's remember that Boston put Manny Ramirez on waivers, and by all accounts would have let any team claim him.

If the Marlins expect anyone to pick up all or most of Delgado's salary, they're not going to get a whole lot back. Of course, I don't think the Jays would be interested in any case. And Adam Dunn's another case entirely, as I don't think the Reds are desperate to move him.
Jacko - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 11:43 PM EST (#132602) #
There are interesting players out there. For instance, Brandon Sing was left unprotected by the Cubbies, who lost Andy Sisco last year.

Those are some decent power/patience numbers. I wonder what the knock on him is. Bad defense? Slow bat?

His profile reminds me a bit of Jason Dubois, who so far, has been a bit of a bust. However, Sing walks quite a bit more than Dubois, so he would probably not be eaten alive by MLB pitching.

Given the Jays' complete lack of power hitting prospects in the high minors, it does seem a little weird that they wouldn't take a flier on Sing. The Rule 5 draft is not just for relievers and light hitting shortstops (see Shelton, Chris).

Jacko - Sunday, November 20 2005 @ 11:57 PM EST (#132603) #
Lastly, the jays wont trade for delgado ... they let him go for all sorts of reasons. They tried hard to trade him at the deadline last year, and he didn't budge, he wanted an extension to become a mercenary. It would seem odd, for florida to get a slugger like delgado for $4 Million a season, and then the trading partner has to assume the remainder of the (HUGE) contract and give up a blue chip prospect. The jays didn't even get a compensatory draft pick for him.

The Marlins are being cheap, pure and simple. They don't want to pay Lowell and Delgado 25 MM combined over the next few years. Didn't know about that tax clause in Delgado's contract. That closes the value gap between him and Thome quite a bit.

It's kind of funny seeing how upset Delgado is with the Marlins. He did a deal with the devil when he signed on with Loria and Co. And given how they backloaded the deal, he should not be surprised at all that they are now trying to trade him. Seriously Carlos, cry me a river.

Dylan - Monday, November 21 2005 @ 01:00 AM EST (#132604) #
"Didn't J.P. say that this was false when he was asked about it"

Most likely, was just thinking of rumours I had heard, but thats not the point. To say Lilly has no trade value is ridiculous. He has shown the ability to dominate just not consistently and has been prone to injury. But he's a lefty with good stuff, can strike guys out, and isnt making a ton of money. Even Mark Hendrickson netted us Spier. Of course he wouldn't be the centerpiece in a big name trade but Im sure alot of teams would like him on their team.

I think Jacko and Ryan Day explained the situation perfectly perfectly. Most of the trades I see in today's game are not talent for talent, it seems to be proven talent for potential, or salary for youth.
Cristian - Monday, November 21 2005 @ 01:25 AM EST (#132605) #
Ostensibly, the Marlins need to dump salary in order to negotiate long term deals with Cabrera and Willis. Now, if you are Cabrera and Willis, do you sign long term deals with Loria or do you bolt the Marlins the first chance you get? I suppose these guys could sign deals that buy out their arbitration deals only--like Jason Bay did. However, if the Marlins don't get a discount on any Cabrera/Willis free agent years, do they really save much money by locking up arbitration years?

I'm sorry if this doesn't make much sense but it's late and I'm off to bed. The crux of my argument is...only fools sign long term deals with Loria.
Pistol - Monday, November 21 2005 @ 08:38 AM EST (#132608) #
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/baseball/rangers/stories/112105dnsporanglede.39e1038.html

Apparently the Rangers are willing to throw in one of their highly regarded pitching prospects to land Josh Beckett (Diamond or Danks). Of course, both prospects struggled in their first look in AA.
Maldoff - Monday, November 21 2005 @ 09:00 AM EST (#132609) #
I think an interesting guy in the Rule V draft would be Colt Griffin. He was a high draft pick a few years back, and has a wicked arm, just no head on his shoulders. Reminds me of a guy from last year....Bobby Jenks.
dmac - Monday, November 21 2005 @ 11:38 AM EST (#132619) #
What's with all the Delgado talk? Getting him is a bad investment, pure and simple.
John Northey - Monday, November 21 2005 @ 12:09 PM EST (#132620) #
If the Marlins cover a chunk of Delgado's contract and it doesn't cost too much in prospects, then it is a good investment. How much has to be covered? What prospects are too much? Hard to say as I haven't dug too much into it due to the fact I doubt the Jays will re-aquire Delgado.

I suspect Giles is plan A for offense with Thome/Howard being plan B. Delgado is probably on the list of plans but way down and odds are someone will spring more anyways. Never say never, but at this time I doubt it'll be more than a bunch of fans of the Jays dreaming of the biggest slugger we've ever had returning after a one year sabatical.
Ducey - Monday, November 21 2005 @ 12:47 PM EST (#132626) #
Its going to be a long off season for all 12 Marlin's fans. While they can expect a few prospects to come over they are poised to lose 2 of their 3 best starters and their big bopper first baesman.

Loria is just dealing in bad faith again. Lets see, he puts payroll at major leagues lowest, upsets legislators and fans and then says "I can't make it in this market". He then tries to move the team (probably to Vegas) when he points a gun to a whole new group of people.

What really highlights his dishonesty is that the Marlins are starting a new TV deal in 2006 that was to get them $9 million a year. To add that money and start collecting revenue sharing guarantees Loria a healthy profit while he guts the team. Shameful.
actionjackson - Monday, November 21 2005 @ 12:53 PM EST (#132628) #
Hey Delgado lovers: Get over it! He kicked us in the bag 2 months before leaving. All he's interested in is money. I don't think he even wants to win. The highest bidder is music to his ears. Look who he signed with. He 'didn't want to be a rental player'. Most of the time, being a rental player gives you a chance to win. Players with an ounce of competitive fire would've jumped at the chance to have a shot at the big prize. Especially, after 11 seasons of mediocrity. What concerned him at the trade deadline? An extension. He already had enough money to buy a bunch of islands and instead of going to a winner he opted to dig in his heels and ask for more money. I don't begrudge the players making the incredible money they do. But, if we're footing the bill I want players that will do what it takes to win. Delgado is not one of those players. A great human being off the field and a highly skilled player on it, but I for one question the fire in his belly.
TJ Caino - Monday, November 21 2005 @ 12:55 PM EST (#132629) #
"Never say never, but at this time I doubt it'll be more than a bunch of fans of the Jays dreaming of the biggest slugger we've ever had returning after a one year sabatical."

I was dreaming about that too... But then things kind of got weird. Something about the World Series trophy and Jessica Alba.
TJ Caino - Monday, November 21 2005 @ 01:19 PM EST (#132632) #
Action Jackson: When Delgado signed, the Marlins were in a great position to win. They had three good young pitchers and a strong line up. Their performance was very disappointing, and below what many expected of them.

That doesn't change the fact that an off-season fire sale was probably foreseeable. But for last year at least, Delgado put himself in a position to win.
Lefty - Monday, November 21 2005 @ 01:54 PM EST (#132636) #
As all this Delgado talk is pie in the sky so far. I won't comment on whether the Jays enter the stakes for Carlos.

But I will remind folks that Godfrey had kind things to say about him, and opened the door for possible return in the future, either as a player or organizational man.

All I can say is that if the shoe fits, wear it.
John Northey - Monday, November 21 2005 @ 01:54 PM EST (#132637) #
Also, for whatever reason, many thought Florida was going to get a new stadium last year. I thought they were dreaming but it wouldn't surprise me if Delgado thought it was possible. Given many thought Atlanta would finally become a normal team, Philly always seems to come up short, the Mets are the Mets and the ex-Expos were signing (hehe) Vinny Castilla I can see thinking the Marlins could win and be a consistent winner. Especially with the young pitching.
actionjackson - Monday, November 21 2005 @ 02:45 PM EST (#132642) #
OK, I retract the 'monday morning quarterback' shot at the Marlins. However, the fact remains that he denied himself an opportunity to be a rental player for a team close to the playoffs 2/3 of the way through the season, which is closer to the playoffs than any team can be on Opening Day, because he wanted an extension. I have serious questions about his desire to win. I have zero questions about his abilities, or whether he's a great human being with principles, when it comes to world affairs.
John Northey - Monday, November 21 2005 @ 03:53 PM EST (#132646) #
Good point actionjackson on Delgado not wanting to be a rental. However, what benefit to him was there in going and what did the Jays ask him? If they straight out asked for Delgado to write off his no-trade clause then Delgado would've been foolish to say 'sure' since he did get that no-trade clause for a reason, so he didn't end up somewhere he didn't want to be and so if he was traded he'd be compensated for the pain-in-the-butt of moving. If the Jays told him 'Carlos, we are working on trade deals, who would you be willing to go to, what conditions would you put on it' and Carlos said 'get lost' then that is another ball game. Sadly, there is no way for us as fans to ever know what happened.

If I was the Jays I'd try for the first (please waive it fully) then ask the second (if you wont fully waive it tell me who you would go to so I don't waste my time trying to trade you just to be vetoed). As I recall the buzz was the Jays just tried the first and never asked if Delgado had somewhere he was willing to go. Delgado not wanting to go to a contender no matter what doesn't really say much about his wanting to win so much as it tells us he didn't want to give the Jays a freebie. If he told JP he wouldn't go anywhere mid-season no matter what (ie: even if they offered a contract extension or were a team in first by 10 games) then you can question his wanting to win.

In the end, to me, if he can perform at a near MVP level then he is useful to have. Oakland was buried in those types back in the early 70's (playing for themselves, not the team) and won 3 WS in a row. Attitude is a good divider when debating between two average players. It shouldn't be a big factor though with guys at Delgado's level.
binnister - Monday, November 21 2005 @ 04:17 PM EST (#132652) #
Re: Kenji Johjima signs with Seatle

Hmm... looks as if Yorvit Torrealba might be had for cheap.

Young, and could be a good back up for Zuan. Could also be a 'Plan B' if Q doesn't work out.

Fawaz - Monday, November 21 2005 @ 07:11 PM EST (#132667) #
I don't think Delgado's refusal to be a rental speaks poorly of his competitiveness at all. Would he be closer to winning a title? Probably, but is it the title that really motivates a competitive player, or is it the notion that he might make a meaningful contribution or even carry a winner? Does latching on to a successful team and then being awarded a ring the next spring really demonstrate more drive than wanting to be a part of a team from the beginning and really making an impact on the team's future (remembering that, while the negotiations were not smooth, Delgado did say he wanted to get a deal done with the Jays)?

The comparison isn't perfect because in baseball one teammate's productivity doesn't necessarily affect another's, but I'm reminded of Karl Malone and Gary Payton hooking on to the Lakers at a discount to 'compete' for a title. They clearly wanted rings; I'm not convinced they wanted to earn them.

I, for one, am not impressed by those that try to set up their own ring ceremonies by jumping to already strong teams (a la Kariya and Payton). To me it smacks of a hunger for glory, not a hunger for competition.
The Bone - Monday, November 21 2005 @ 07:29 PM EST (#132670) #
Ok, espn.com is reporting that a Lowell + Beckett for Hanley Ramirez + Pitching Prospect deal may be imminent. Two questions:

Firstly, if you're J.P. would you rather have Lowell + Beckett at about a $13 million dollar cost (while losing Chacin and Hill) in 2006 or Burnett + Hillenbrand at about $17 million dollars next year combined (while losing no one)?

Secondly, if you're the Florida G.M., would you rather have Aaron Hill and Gustavo Chacin or Hanley Ramirez and a Boston pitching prospect?
Pistol - Monday, November 21 2005 @ 07:46 PM EST (#132671) #
1. The latter and I don't even think it's close.

2. It depends on the pitcher, but assuming it's one of the top 3-4 pitchers I think the Marlins take the Red Sox package (unless they wanted major league ready players).

I find it interesting that the Sox are mulling such a big move without an official GM.
Pistol - Monday, November 21 2005 @ 08:08 PM EST (#132672) #
Word has it per Gammons on the radio that its a done deal pending phyiscals.

Boston gets
RHP Josh Beckett
3B Mike Lowell

Florida gets
SS Hanley Ramirez
RHP Anibal Sanchez
and PTBNL
Ron - Monday, November 21 2005 @ 08:11 PM EST (#132675) #
If this goes through, what a great trade by the Sox.

Hanley is over-rated. I know scouts loves his tools but last season he was missing the tool box. He's very inconsistant and showed little at the plate.

Losing Sanchez will sting a little bit but Theo and his crew did a great job of rebuilding the farm system. There's a boatload of arms coming through the system (Lester, Hansen, Papelbon, Alvarez, Meredith, Pauley).

Beckett is a fantastic pitcher and one of the best young arms in all of baseball. And we all know what he did in the playoffs. I believe Lowell will bounce back, especially playing at Fenway.

It appears to me the Sox will have too many SP's:

Schilling
Beckett
Clement
Wakefield
Arroyo
Papelbon

I'm assuming Wells gets dealt and I don't know if they still have Wade Miller under contract.
daryn - Tuesday, November 22 2005 @ 11:16 AM EST (#132730) #
how is this deal better for the Marlin's than the Blalock one?
Unless they REALLY need to move salary..

I like the idea of sending Beckett and Lowell to get Blalock and be able to keep Willis...

but this ... I don't know
TJ Caino - Tuesday, November 22 2005 @ 12:28 PM EST (#132734) #
I guess they prefer Ramirez over Blalock. Younger cheaper and you keep him longer. Should be around when they make another run at it.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, November 22 2005 @ 12:34 PM EST (#132736) #
Weren't the Marlins talking about moving Cabrera back to third? If that's the case, there'd be no point in acquiring Blalock.
Cristian - Tuesday, November 22 2005 @ 12:40 PM EST (#132739) #
"Should be around when they make another run at it."

By 'it' I assume you mean Las Vegas.
Chuck - Tuesday, November 22 2005 @ 06:28 PM EST (#132764) #
Schilling Beckett Clement Wakefield Arroyo Papelbon

I'm assuming Wells gets dealt and I don't know if they still have Wade Miller under contract.

The old saw is that you can never have too much pitching. And considering the health risks that are Beckett, Schilling and Wells (and Miller, if he returns) then they'll need your whole list and possibly more to get through the season.

Is there talk of putting Papelbon in the rotation?

Brian W - Tuesday, November 22 2005 @ 06:45 PM EST (#132766) #
The Jays have announced their spring training schedule including a split squad game against Team Canada (World Baseball Classic edition).

Full Schedule
Sportsnet Article

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