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Welcome to another view of the Blue Jays at the quarter pole. This article is remarkably analysis-free.




Russ Adams
At this point, I don't know: he isn't doing anything particularly well. I don't see how he is going to improve enough to be a quality player. Of course, I was saying that about Rios in April. Any time I give up on a player, he blossoms. It's a tough job, but somebody's got to do it.

Frank Catalanotto
He must have made an adjustment at the plate, as he's never walked this much before. What's he doing differently? I can't see it. Help.

Troy Glaus
I like the ads on the subway that feature Glaus: "Meet the new head of HR." It's great to have a player who is (a) having a great season with the bat and (b) playing at his established level of ability. I'm used to seeing these guys on other teams, or playing for the Jays and then signing for other teams as expensive free agents. Five years ago, he would have become a Yankee.

Aaron Hill
He's the best .200 hitter I've ever seen. I don't mean this as a slur, or a backhanded compliment; he just looks like he's going to be a good major league player. Of course, I'm a lousy scout. Orlando Hudson isn't hitting much better, and isn't fielding much better. In mathematical terms, Glaus - Koskie > Hudson - Hill.

Shea Hillenbrand
I can't think of anything to say about Shea. He's an established talent, playing at about one click better than his norm.

In every player's career, there is some point at which they must realize that they're aren't going to get any better, and that it's all downhill from here. I'll have another, bartender; thank you.

Eric Hinske
He is what he is. As a 25th man, he is useful, as he can serve as an emergency fill-in at third, the outfield, or first. He runs well enough to pinch-run, and he hits well enough to pinch-hit. He's better than, say, J.T. Snow or Bubba Crosby (to pick equivalent players on the divisional rivals). That's damning with faint praise, isn't it?

Reed Johnson
It's probably worth remembering that Sparky has a history of streaks and slumps. He tends to play well for a short period of time, only to drop into a slump once his Energizer Battery runs down. But that doesn't mean he isn't a valuable player, and this hot streak has been better than his past ones: he's got a .473 on-base percentage as I write this, and has scored nearly a run a game.

John McDonald
Let's not get carried away here. Mac is a tremendous fielder, but he can't hit at all. He shouldn't be playing too often, as the team can't afford an offensive hole this large. (If Adams doesn't hit, the Jays need to find somebody else.) He's still a useful man to have on the roster, though, as every team needs a good glove on the bench.

Bengie Molina
Did you know that he has only struck out seven times all year? That ranks him 12th on the team. He has more extra-base hits than strikeouts. Not a star, but a little bit better than most catchers. And every little bit better counts. So what if he can't outrun a turtle or your grandmother (or your grandmother's turtle, or your turtle's grandmother)?

Lyle Overbay
He's like one of those quiet, mild-mannered ninjas who looks unthreatening but quietly beats you up. Then bows politely afterwards. Thank you for the lesson, Overbay-san. I hurt all over now.

Alex Rios
For a couple of years, I've been writing that Rios's upside is Dave Winfield, but I've been telling a lie: his upside is Vladimir Guerrero. Like Vlad, Alex isn't drawing walks because he's too busy hitting the first pitch within reach for extra bases. And, again like Vlad, Alex has a world-class arm in right.

I still think that an adjustment period awaits. Eventually, pitchers will do to him what they did to Delgado: they'll throw him nothing but nibbly off-speed stuff on the corners, and will see whether he'll lay off it. This means, if all goes well, that his walks will go up and his power will go down. That's perfectly okay - he can get on base, and Wells and Glaus can drive him home. It's all good.

Vernon Wells
In 2005, everybody was asking too much of him. His job description called for him to field like Devon White, hit like Carlos Delgado, and serve as the team leader. All at the age of 26. I postulate that Glaus's arrival and the development of Rios have liberated Wells: all he needs to do is be one of a bunch of good hitters. Which, paradoxically, frees him to be much more. It's a Zen thing.

Gregg Zaun
Y'know, this might all be for the best. In the past, Zaun has shown signs of fatigue as the season wore on: playing as hard as he does has to be wearing him out, especially since he's on the high side of 30. Now, playing in spots, he's refreshed, and he's hitting the snot out of the ball (to use a technical term). How many teams have two catchers this good?

A.J. Burnett
The worst-case scenario isn't that he doesn't come back until after the all-star break: the worst-case scenario is that he never pitches again. I don't think it's going to be that bad, but it bears repeating: the human arm was not meant to take the strain of pitching. And Duane Ward, among others, was initially diagnosed as having tendinitis.

Gus Chacin
Will his new cologne help cure a sore arm? If I recall correctly, the slogan for Chacin the cologne is "A curveball for the senses". It's little things like this that keep me going.

Vinnie Chulk
I'm sure that, by now, he's heard all sorts of supposedly encouraging maxims, such as "When the going gets tough, the tough get going," and "When life hands you a lemon, make lemonade." And I'm sure he regularly tells these well-meaning people to fold their maxims eight ways and jam them into a rather personal area. Has he rented an apartment in Syracuse, or is he expecting to come up again very soon?

Scott Downs
"Thank you for purchasing this generic left-handed pitcher. With proper care and use, your generic left-handed pitcher should provide you with many years of trouble-free service. Be sure to store your generic left-handed pitcher in a clean, dry and room temperature environment. Once you have used your generic left-handed pitcher, be sure to allow plenty of time for rest and recharge. Warranty null and void if used to pitch to Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, or any other dominant right-handed power hitter. Do not taunt your generic left-handed pitcher."

Jason Frasor
I think that the only reason he got sent down was because this allowed Gibbons to bring up fresh arms from Syracuse to cover a temporary case of the pitching shorts. His good outing in the last Anaheim series should move him back to #4 on the bullpen depth chart (behind, in order, Ryan, Speier, and Schoeneweis).

Roy Halladay
His K/IP ratio is down a bit, but that's mostly because his stuff is moving a lot and batters are obligingly hitting six-hoppers to second. He has shown himself to be a mere mortal at times, but I wouldn't trade him for any other pitcher in baseball. Would you?

Casey Janssen
I'm wondering whether it's possible to scout poise. Some young pitchers seem overwhelmed by the idea of pitching in the majors: when they are facing the hitters they used to see only on television or on baseball cards, they start thinking that they have to make perfect pitches in order to survive. Other young pitchers just continue doing what they have been doing, and discover, to their delight, that they can get major league hitters out the same way they've been getting minor league hitters out. Janssen has this poise: he is pitching as if he's always belonged in the major leagues, and now he does.

However, his K/IP ratio is a red flag: he's not striking out many batters, and I'm wondering whether he'll start getting clobbered if he stops hitting his spots. But he's inducing grounders, which means his margin of success is greater than Towers'.

And for those of you who still miss Dave Bush: this guy does exactly the same things Bush does, but doesn't allow home runs.

Ted Lilly
Back in March, if you had told me that Lilly would be the team's most dependable and reliable starter, I would have laughed until I cried. And, to a certain extent, he's been doing it with mirrors: you can't allow a hit an inning and two walks every three innings and remain successful in the majors. But I no longer brace myself for inevitable disappointment when he is announced as the starting pitcher.

Dustin McGowan
I don't understand why he wants to be in the bullpen. And I didn't understand why the Jays called him up: he wasn't doing that well in Syracuse. But he's still a good prospect: if he was in Tampa Bay, he'd be in the starting rotation right now.

Francisco Rosario
Lots of potential; not sure about the actual yet. But it's easier to teach a hard thrower to find the strike zone than to teach a control pitcher to throw hard. If he was in Tampa Bay, he'd be in the starting rotation right now.

B.J. Ryan
Let us take a moment to meditate on B.J.'s numbers. 18 2/3 innings. 6 hits allowed. 4 walks. 20 strikeouts. Zero home runs allowed. One run allowed, period. An 0.48 earned run average. Ommmmmmmmmm.

What would he fetch on the free-agent market if he were to be let loose now? Theo Epstein would buy him half of Massachusetts. I wouldn't trade him for any other relief pitcher in baseball.

Scott Schoeneweis
I'm not worried about him: he just has a very bad day every now and again. For obvious reasons, he's not being used as much in the eighth and ninth innings. One advantage of having a left-handed closer: you rarely see the Jays start the inning with a right-hander, switch to Schoeneweis, and then bring in another right-hander. Mid-inning pitching changes are about as boring as watching the Tax Tips Channel (or the Golf Channel).

Justin Speier
I swear that, during his delivery, his right elbow touches his left ear. Prove me wrong.

Josh Towers
Towers' problems have been obvious - he hasn't been hitting his spots with superhuman accuracy the way he did last year, and his stuff isn't good enough to allow him to get away with mistakes. But the schedule has hurt him: he's been forced to pitch a lot against teams that can foul off the borderline strikes off which Towers makes his living. I seem to recall that he had trouble last year against the Red Sox and Yankees, and he's already had to face them a lot. He might do better once he gets to face mere mortals, in ordinary-size ballparks, at sea level.

Pete Walker
More of the same from P-Walk: reliable middle and long relief, but not suitable for use elsewhere. If he was in Tampa Bay, he would be, etc.

Overall
To me, the Jays seem to be like a precision automobile that's missing one or two key parts. I don't think that this is going to be the year. But I still think that the Jays are on track to becoming one of the Big Boys in the AL East. The gap was never likely to be bridged in a single year, and this is an important transition year. Attendance should increase enough to keep Rogers from losing money, so they will be able to continue to afford to fund the team. And the Yanks and Sox will keep getting older and more injury-prone.

I also believe that the pitching is better than it has seemed so far, and the offense isn't as good as it has looked. With the roof closed, the Rogers Centre is a launching pad, particularly for right-handed power hitters; in the summer, some of those balls are going to die on the warning track. Josh Towers, among others, must be anxiously checking the weather forecasts.


At the Quarter Pole, Part II | 10 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
js_magloire - Saturday, May 20 2006 @ 12:49 AM EDT (#147262) #
If the Jays are only "1 or 2 parts" away from being a world-series winning precision automobile, then why not go for it now? Is now not better than when the core of this team completely disappears and we're left with slightlyi inflated salaries in 2008, inflated because we thought putting them altogether now could make us win.

A: Towers is now 1-8. Please, he has to go. Period. Too many chances. One of our many great prospects could have salvaged at least a couple more of those 8 losses, essentially putting us in first place without AJ Burnett!!!! Once Chacin is back, put in anyone either Taubenheim, Rosario, Walker, Downs, etc etc.

B. I liked the comparison the Rockies commentators made today: that Alex Rios has a kind of Derek Lee upside.

C. Aaron hill now has a respectable average, especially considering he's a sophomore that has put much concentration on a defensive position switch - to which he has been quite successful. As well, he has few strikeouts and is putting the ball in play, which means he's bound to get his average up because eventually more hits will fall in. I believe in Adams too - he's hitting somewhat decently and is getting his numbers up (but I do have to admit he has a bad arm, defensively).

That's basically it. Hoepfully, A.J. Burnett comes back mid to late June - if he comes back on the off day of June 19th (1 month from today), he still makes 4 starts before the all-star break.

And on a yankee update: they lost to the Mets tonight. Also, they put Bubba Crosby on the DL, and Pavano is out for the year. Johnson is not the pitcher he once was. This is our time to strike for that wild card!!!!

Geoff - Saturday, May 20 2006 @ 02:31 AM EDT (#147265) #
B. I liked the comparison the Rockies commentators made today: that Alex Rios has a kind of Derek Lee upside.

Hmmph.  Did they?

Not only is Bubba Crosby hurting on the DL, and Pavano headed for surgery, but Tanyon Sturtze is going to the operating table as well. And Posada left tonight's game with tightness in his upper back that prevented him from throwing to second — Believed to be effects of a home plate collision with Mark Teixeira a few days ago. Soon Cashman will have to scour the waiver wire for guys like Miguel Negron. Or Guillermo Quiroz.

AWeb - Saturday, May 20 2006 @ 03:30 AM EDT (#147266) #
Why is it the Jays can't win this year? If Towers had given them even a chance for most of the year, they'd be in first place now. The Jays are on pace to win 90 games or so despite starting pitching being a problem (but with an offense that is unlikely to continue at this level). Last year, 95 wins took the division. Given the strength of the league, and the Yankees/Red Sox duo, 95 wins might take it again. It's hard to believe after the last decade, but this is quite plausible. Things do not all have to go the Jays way for this to happen, they just need their fair share of good fortune. They certainly don't need every part to be high performance.

All of the divisional rivals have problems: The Yankees are injury prone, have given Bernie Williams 115 ABs so far, have bad starting ptiching and no bench.

The Red Sox have a hole in the lineup at SS, possibly an aging catcher, a terrible bench, and mediocre starters (based on performance so far).

The Jays have a SS problem, no 2B hitting, Towers, and pitching injuries.

The Rays have a team batting line worse than Adams and a team pitching line like Vinnie Chulk so far this year.

The Orioles have pitching like the Rays, but with better hitting.

See? It's easy to nitpick, but my point is the Jays do have a real shot this year. Pitching will continue to improve as jobs are won or lost on performance (I'm looking at you, back half of bullpen and rotation). Hitting, let's hope it doesn't drop off too much. It kept going in 2003, and if that bunch could score 900 runs, this one can too.
Chuck - Saturday, May 20 2006 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#147268) #
Frank Catalanotto... He must have made an adjustment at the plate, as he's never walked this much before. What's he doing differently?

You can tell a lot about a player by his "attitude" when the count is 2-0 or 3-1. Some players see this as their count, and they are swinging at the next pitch, be it a ball or a strike. George Bell, Joe Carter, Vernon Wells... you know the profile.

In watching Frank Catanalotto this year, he no longer appears to be in that group. He's not looking for walks, per se, but is more accepting of them if they are being offered. Whether that means his other numbers will suffer, we shall see.

Another telling thing to me about hitters is how they handle the pitch sequence starting with a count of 3-0. Virtually all hitters take the 3-0 pitch, which the umpire will call a strike if it's within a foot of the plate. On 3-1, on the heels of a 3-0 count, it seems to me that the pitcher lets up and often doesn't throw a strike. Some hitters seem to anticipate this and are especially careful not to go out of the strike zone. I don't know how many times Catalanotto has been in this situation, but I saw him draw a walk a couple of nights ago this very way.
Cristian - Saturday, May 20 2006 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#147269) #
I've mentioned it him before: Craig Counsell.  He's perfect and will be available once Stephen Drew slithers up from Tucson.  Hopefully Glaus can sell Counsell on the Toronto and the team.
Chuck - Saturday, May 20 2006 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#147277) #
Greg Zaun... Now, playing in spots, he's refreshed, and he's hitting the snot out of the ball (to use a technical term).

A 250ish singles hitter who could draw enough walks to be a useful hitting catcher appears to have morphed (small sample arguments apply, as per usual).

He's being a lot more aggressive, perhaps the result of his Charles Atlas-inspired off-season. He's only walked 4 times, a very low amount for him, but has 10 extra-base hits versus only 9 singles. And he seems, at least to me, to be hanging out over the plate with Delgado-like bravado.

Of course, 100-200 AB from now, this story may change, and he may look like the Zaun we're more familiar with. But for now, let's enjoy the wrath of Zaun, and lets hope Gibbons can cut into some of Molina's playing time against RHP.



Chuck - Saturday, May 20 2006 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#147279) #
A.J. Burnett... And Duane Ward, among others, was initially diagnosed as having tendinitis.

Bill James once quipped that tendinitis is medical-speak for "don't really know what's wrong".

Scott Downs... "Thank you for purchasing this generic left-handed pitcher. With proper care and use, your generic left-handed pitcher should provide you with many years of trouble-free service. Be sure to store your generic left-handed pitcher in a clean, dry and room temperature environment. Once you have used your generic left-handed pitcher, be sure to allow plenty of time for rest and recharge. Warranty null and void if used to pitch to Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, or any other dominant right-handed power hitter. Do not taunt your generic left-handed pitcher."

"And when you're done with him, place him on the rotating carrousel and choose another. Don't worry, your generic left-handed pitcher will find a home, just as surely as you will give a home to someone else's castoff." Kinda like life as a place-kicker. Don't be buying a home until your career is done and don't get too close to your teammates.

Casey Janssen... And for those of you who still miss Dave Bush: this guy does exactly the same things Bush does, but doesn't allow home runs.

I must take issue here, Dave. Bush has found a way to miss bats. His K/BB ratio is 49/12 in 60 IP.

B.J. Ryan... Let us take a moment to meditate on B.J.'s numbers. 18 2/3 innings. 6 hits allowed. 4 walks. 20 strikeouts. Zero home runs allowed. One run allowed, period. An 0.48 earned run average. Ommmmmmmmmm.

And a cheesy run at that. Defensive indifference turned a single into a triple and a meaningless Sac Fly scored the run.

[Thanks for the column Dave. You have provided a terrific Saturday distraction. But now it seems the sun will not give way to rain and the grass must be cut. Sigh.]



Ron - Saturday, May 20 2006 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#147287) #
Here's my extremely small quick hits on the roster:

Russ Adams
According to my eyes, he's the worst defensive starting SS in the majors. He clearly doesn't have the arm to play the position and will make routine plays an adventure. His D has regressed from last season. Doesn't offer much with the bat either. I feel like there's a chance he won't be the starting Jays SS next season.

Frank Catalanotto
Has done a great job of taking borderline pitches for balls instead of fouling them off. If the Jays ever need a single in a tight game, there's no other Jay I would rather see at the plate than the Cat. He's what I call a professional hitter. It will be interesting to see if the Jays try to resign him in the off-season.

Troy Glaus
He has lived up to expectations. The Jays badly needed a player that was a threat to knock the ball out of the park everytime they step up to the plate. Glaus provides this. His defence has been a positive surprise. He does a good job at charging the ball and bare handing it to 1B.

Aaron Hill
Has performed better at the plate the past couple of games. If you look at his numbers, outside of his first 2 months in the bigs, his numbers are ugly. I don't see a lot of upside though. 2 years from now, he might be a utility player. A classic low risk, low upside college selection, something JP has perfected during his tenure as the Jays GM.

Shea Hillenbrand
Decent player that will be playing for another team next season. His 30 HR prediction will probably be as successful as Wells 30 stolen bases prediction last season.

Eric Hinske
Blah. Just waiting for his contract to run out. I thought he was going to become an all-star calibre player after his rookie season.

Reed Johnson
Fun player to watch. A perfect 4th OF.

John McDonald
Has only 1 extra-base bit this season. I don't even remember the last time he hit a dinger. It's probably been several seasons. All glove no bat. He shouldn't recieve more than a 100 AB's.

Bengie Molina
The only player in the league that can smoke the ball to the LF and RF wall and still get easily thrown out at 2B. The Gold Glove days are long gone. There's way too many passed balls (good thing a lot of them happened when nobody has been on base). Hits for a high average though.

Lyle Overbay
Professional hitter. I would like to see more homers and doubles but he's a walk machine. A pleasure to watch out in the field. I like Overbay.

Alex Rios
I would have traded Rios for Wilson in the off-season. I feel like his D is over-rated by Jays fans. He has a cannon but he has misplayed balls in the field. He has cooled off in the HR department but he's still getting a ton of doubles. I still don't know what Rios really is. Is he more like the player we saw last season or this season? Perhaps somewhere in the middle? You can count me as somebody that is still skeptical of Rios. He refuses to walk.

Vernon Wells
Look what happens when you have protection... okay I won't open that can of worms:)
Wells is having a terrific season.

Gregg Zaun
5HR's already!!! Has aged well. Good guy in the clubhouse. He wanted to hit the jackpot after this season so I could understand why he was frustrated when the Jays signed Molina. Should the Jays keep sign him in the off-season?

A.J. Burnett
At this point, this is the worst FA contract given out during the off-season. Everybody knew this was a high risk signing and so far it has blown up in the Jays faces. I got the feeling JP was frustrated when AJ was injured again. By reading his comments, I got the feeling JP thinks AJ has more of a mental than elbow issue. Things could interesting.........

Gus Chacin
Nibbles too much around the plate for my liking. Usually has a high pitch count by the 5th inning. Dr. Evil's a solid number 4 or 5 starter though.

Vinnie Chulk
Ummm............ hopefully we see you soon kid.

Scott Downs
A lefty reliever.

Jason Frasor
A much better pitcher than his current ERA indicates.

Roy Halladay
I'm a little bit worried at his low amount of K's. He's also a health risk which I'm sure Will Carroll points out. A true ace. Outside of Santana, there's no other SP I would want than the Doctor in the AL.

Casey Janssen
He can thank his low ERA to facing the weak hitting  Angels twice. Had trouble with the D-Rays and O's. Let's see how he does against the Red Sox, White Sox, and Yanks. Low K rate is a warning sign. I'm not sold on Janssen yet.

Ted Lilly
If he can keep this up ,he can look foward to a contract that's worth at least 21 mil over 3 years. Of course it won't be from the Jays though.

Dustin McGowan
Has looked awful with the Jays. I'm starting to cool off on him. If you asked me 6 months ago, I would have told you he had the potential to be a number 2 starter, now I don't think so. Sure he throws hard but he can't locate his pitches. Remind me of Brandon League when he was up with the big club. I'm not sure what the purpose was of coverting him to a reliever and than bringing him back as a starter. Very questionable move by the Jays brass.

Francisco Rosario
Has look excellent in his brief stint with the big club.

B.J. Ryan
Better than I expected. Unlike Batista, when Ryan comes into a game he doesn't nibble around. He pounds the strike zone and works quickly. Wham, Bam, Thank You Mam.

Scott Schoeneweis
Hopefully he turns it around soon. You'll be seeing him in another uniform next season.

Justin Speier
I like Speier. Hopefully he's back next season.

Josh Towers
I give him one more start before yanking him from the rotation.

Pete Walker
Great K/IP so far. A good pitcher for low leverage situations. Can pass as Mike Lowell's twin.

At the Quarter Pole, Part II | 10 comments | Create New Account
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