Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Now that the Jays have stopped losing to Kansas City and we have all emerged, trembling, from under our bedcovers, here's my $.02 on the Jays' first half. As usual, all opinions are exclusively my own, but I'm happy to share if you like.




Lyle Overbay
Hitters are more predictable than pitchers, and Overbay is more predictable than most hitters: he's pretty much guaranteed to be around .300 with good plate discipline and medium-range power. One happy consequence of moving to Ted Rogers' Hitters Paradise is that some of Lyle's gap doubles are clearing the wall in Toronto: he's likely to hit 25 or more homers this year, easily beating his career high. His only real flaw is that other American League teams have first basemen who hit for more power.

By the way, Dave Bush is better off out of Toronto. His 4.34 ERA in Milwaukee would likely translate into a 5+ ERA if he were still here, what with the DH and all, and he'd probably be giving up more home runs than the 10 he's surrendered while pitching for the Brewers. So cry no rivers for him.

Russ Adams
I don't know what happens next. He's obviously too good for the minors: his .338 average in Syracuse was easily higher than that of anybody else playing for the SkyChiefs. But he's not doing anything well in a major league uniform: he's not hitting for average, he's not reaching base, he's not hitting for power, and he's not fielding particularly well. I get the impression that he has weaknesses in his game that major league pitchers can successfully exploit. He could still turn it around, but you've got to think that the reaper is knocking at his door.

John McDonald
Aaron Hill has proven that he can play shortstop in the majors, which pretty much means that Johnny Mac has no discernible job function. He's playing second every now and again, picking up for Adams, but is otherwise rooted to the bench. I wonder: does he wish he were back in Detroit?

Aaron Hill
He has passed a lot of tests already. He's proven he can play third base, second base, and shortstop. He's worked through a hitting slump and made adjustments, and he's starting to hit the way he did when he first came up. I still have no idea what kind of hitter he is going to be - at first, I thought he was going to be the next Paul Molitor, but now I'd say that he looks more like a young Robin Yount. He'll need to develop a bit more power and patience to become a star - but, right now, there is no upper limit on how good he can become.

Troy Glaus
Many big bombers tend to hit in streaks and slumps, and it looks like Glaus may be one of those. He also may believe that it's his job to lead his less experienced teammates to the Promised Land, which means that he feels that he has to hit a long bomb every time up. He doesn't have to do that. All he has to do is keep the line moving.

Memo to John Gibbons: hitters tend not to do as well when forced to play a defensive position that is too demanding for them. In other words: do not play this man at shortstop ever again. Thank you.

Shea Hillenbrand
Has gone through streaks and slumps, and is now exactly where you'd expect him to be: around .300, with medium-range power and below-average plate discipline. If the Jays wind up dumping players in August, Shea is likely to be the first to be thrown over the side.

Reed Johnson
He's now gone through half a season hitting over .350 and reaching base over 45% of the time. He has line-drive power, can play all three outfield positions, and is 8 for 9 stealing bases. Of course, he puts up these outrageously wonderful numbers because he normally only plays in conditions that are optimal for him. But, still: wow.

Frank Catalanotto
Has 38 walks so far this season, which is one shy of his career high. He seems to have learned to lay off pitches that he used to foul off - give Mickey Brantley credit for that.

An interesting question: if the Jays decide to reload for 2007 and dump players, do you let Cat go? He's 32 now, and he's probably at his peak value. Could the Jays get a good starting pitcher for him?

Vernon Wells
I have a sinking feeling that we won't see him in a Toronto uniform after 2007. His long-term contract means that he's been working for relative peanuts, given his performance. To his credit, he hasn't complained, but you've got to assume that he'll want to try to extract every dollar, pound, franc, kopeck, or yen out there when given the chance. I suspect that he'll want to go to Texas - he's from that part of the world, and his buddy, Michael Young, plays there. Enjoy it while it lasts, people.

Alex Rios
All along, my semi-serious criticism of J.P. Ricciardi is that he hasn't been lucky enough. Who could predict that his emerging star would contract a serious bacterial infection? This, like Kevin Mench's line drive, is the act of a capricious and spiteful Baseball God.

While Alex deserves to be on the All-Star team, he's still got a ways to go before he can be considered a proven star. From now on, opposing pitchers will no longer challenge him with fastballs; they'll throw him tantalizing off-speed pitches just out of the strike zone to see whether they can find a weakness that they can capitalize on. You have to expect that Rios, like Wells and Delgado before him, will see his numbers drop while he learns to adjust to the new pitching patterns. But they both eventually rebounded, and I assume that Rios will, too. Will likely take over centre field and the #3 slot if Wells moves on.

Eric Hinske
You have to give him credit. He waited patiently and worked hard, and seized his opportunity when it came. I don't see him being a long-term solution - right now, as in his rookie season, he's playing at the upper limit of his abilities, and over time he'll sink back to his usual level. But he's no longer dead weight: he's made a significant contribution to the Jays' 2006 season. Given what he can do - play three positions, pinch-hit and pinch-run - he'll likely have several more seasons in the majors in a part-time role, and he'll deserve them.

Bengie Molina
Molina isn't a better player than Zaun - he doesn't hit better or throw better, and he obviously doesn't run better. But Zaun wears down if you play him too much - he's not young - and it's obviously much better to have a mix of 65% Molina and 35% Zaun than 80% Zaun and 20% Quiroz or Huckaby, even if Gregg might be a better #1. Molina doesn't strike out much, by the way: he's fanned only 21 times so far, which ranks him 10th on the team.

Gregg Zaun
He hasn't complained about his demotion, he reaches base, he can switch hit, and he has power. And he recently bowled Robert Fick over at the plate. What more could you ask for?

The only downside is that he is now 35: he's a young 35, as he hasn't played much, but you've got to think that he can't last too much longer. Recall what happened to Darrin Fletcher and Greg Myers: they were very good, then suddenly they weren't.

Chad Mottola
I hope he enjoys his week or two of major-league life, and that all those years slogging through the minors are worth the trouble.

Offense, Summary
Their numbers are inflated by their home park, but the Jays are still hitting the ball far better than any of us expected. And only Johnson and Zaun, and maybe Hinske, are hitting over their heads (assuming that Rios's improvement is for real). Credit goes to J.P. for building a better mousetrap.

Roy Halladay
I have no idea whether, statistically, the Doctor is the best pitcher in baseball. And I admit to being biased. But, speaking as a Blue Jays fan, I say this: I would not trade Halladay for any other pitcher in baseball. I say he's the best. To fans of Johan Santana or Jose Contreras: have a raspberry on me. Phhhphpt.

A.J. Burnett
Despite being the same age as Halladay, he's clearly not a finished product: his stuff moves so much that he doesn't always have a handle on it. Despite this, he has a tremendous strikeout-to-walk ratio so far, with seven walks and 34 strikeouts in 35 1/3 innings. This indicates that he is bringing plenty to the table.

Strangely enough, I'm not worried about him any more. He didn't pitch that well in his last two starts, but his defense let him down both times. (I think there were botched double play balls in both starts. Turning two outs into zero is hard on a pitcher.) The upside, of course, is his wondrous start against Washington, in which the hitters looked totally overmatched. He isn't going to become Roy Halladay Part II, and he probably won't deliver the sort of performance you normally expect from someone making his salary (i.e., Roy Halladay Part II). But he'll be good enough, I think.

Ted Lilly
In 2004, he was consistently good. In 2005, he was consistently awful. This year, he's been alternately very good and quite bad, which averages out to sorta okay. Still, 16 home runs and 52 walks in 101 2/3 innings means you can't fully trust him with the family silverware. Likely to be gone after 2006, as somebody is going to overpay for him.

Casey Janssen
Shed no tears over the collapse of Josh Towers, as he basically has been cloned. Janssen gives up fewer hits and walks a few more batters, but his K/IP ratio, his home runs allowed, and his ERA are comparable to what we could have expected from Towers before he blew up real good.

Janssen's long-term prognosis is icky: he's struck out 39 in 78 innings, which is exactly one hitter every two innings (otherwise known as the Michalak Line). Basically, this isn't good enough. He'll either have to start missing more bats or the Jays will have to find somebody better.

Ty Taubenheim
The problem that Gibbons, Ricciardi, and the Jays face is that Syracuse is a much easier place to pitch than Toronto. Throughout the Jays' history, there have been many, many pitchers who have pitched great in Syracuse, only to get bombed in the Show. Such pitchers often get summoned to Toronto, returned to Syracuse, called back up again, and so on and so on; this is called the Micheal Nakamura Shuttle, after the former reliever who made several of these round trips earlier in the decade.

Taubenheim is one example of a pitcher who did much better in AAA than in the bigs: his ERA in the 'Cuse was 1.36, and his ERA in Toronto is 4.89. Mind you, 4.89 isn't all that bad for a rookie pitcher, in an extreme hitters' park, facing the pressure of pitching for a team that is trying to win. But it's not good enough to beat the BoSox, so off to the bullpen or Syracuse he goes.

His K/IP ratio in Syracuse might have been a clue: he only struck out 24 in 39 1/3 innings. This isn't exactly dominant; he was probably just locating his pitches well and fooling less-experienced hitters. In The Show, they hit those pitches.

Gustavo Chacin
Before he went down, his numbers weren't all that good, which suggests that his absence isn't hurting the team that much. (Of course, his bad elbow might have been affecting his numbers.) Still tied for third on the team in wins, but that was due mostly to good run support. I still haven't opened my vial of Chacin cologne yet. I'm afraid to.

Josh Towers
Not only was he bad, he was historically bad: virtually nobody gets a chance to rack up an ERA over 9.00 in 12 starts. Most pitchers get dumped long before that. His 16 home runs allowed is still tied for the team lead. It's cruel to think of where the Jays would be if Towers had only pitched at replacement level.

More proof that Syracuse numbers aren't a reliable indicator: Towers' ERA in AAA is 2.66.

B.J. Ryan
Showed signs of being an ordinary pitcher in his last outing: he actually gave up baserunners and runs, which we're not used to seeing. As others on this site have pointed out, Ryan is likely to go into a slump eventually: virtually nobody is this good for this long. Fingers and Eckersley had entire seasons like this, but that's about it. Heck, Willie Hernandez won an MVP award in 1984 with an ERA over twice as high as B.J.'s, and that was in an era that was more pitcher-friendly.

Justin Speier
Has now outlasted almost two complete sets of bullpen pitchers. He was a teammate of Ligtenberg and Adams, and he has remained while Frasor and Chulk have been sent out. His unorthodox delivery affects his control, but makes him tougher to hit than his erstwhile teammates. Seems well-suited to the eighth inning.

Scott Schoeneweis
For some reason, I think of him as having been better than his numbers show him to be. His K/IP ratio is off, which suggests that he might be tiring.

This is as good a place as any to mention that there aren't any Jays relievers who are "vulturing" wins: no Blue Jay reliever has more than two wins right now. The starters have either been very good or very bad, so there haven't been many opportunities for relievers to come into tie games in the middle innings.

Jason Frasor
I think he belongs in the majors. His Syracuse numbers are overwhelming: he's fanned 19 in 9 1/3 innings, and his ERA is 0.96. One warning sign, though: he has walked six batters in those 9 1/3 innings, which suggests that he doesn't have his command yet. And it was this lack of command that caused him to be sent out in the first place. If he comes back, I predict that he won't be any better than when he left.

Pete Walker
Injured again. At this point, I contend that his arm isn't resilient enough to take the strain of a major league job, especially on a team where the manager loves to switch pitchers. I'm not expecting anything from him after this.

Vinnie Chulk
As always, he's similar to Frasor, but in a slightly diluted form. He has struck out 43 batters in 31 innings in Syracuse. I think he's better than Tallet or Downs, and he probably should be welcomed back.

Brian Tallet
Then again, it might not make much difference: Tallet, Chulk and Frasor all have roughly similar major-league numbers. Managers do like left-handed pitchers, though: hitters don't see as many of them, and are more likely to be flummoxed. Tallet has had a lot of walks and a fair number of strikeouts, which suggests good stuff but poor command.

Brandon League
League will probably be more of the same: his Syracuse ERA is respectable, but not as good as Frasor or Chulk's, and his K/IP isn't as good as either of theirs. One good sign: he hasn't allowed a home run all year. Keeping the ball down is essential to success in the Rogers Centre, also known as Ted's Happy Fun Launching Pad.

Scott Downs
Absolutely generic replacement-level left-handed pitcher. Slightly more valuable than some of his bullpen mates because he can go deeper into ballgames (on the days in which he is not being thoroughly pounded by opposing hitters). Has held his job and stayed healthy all year, which puts him ahead of a lot of people.

Shawn Marcum
The best of the available AAA candidates. Marcum's K/IP ratio in Syracuse is better than anyone else's, and he has shown tremendous control. There's a job waiting for somebody if he can step up and take it.

Dustin McGowan
Still has overpowering stuff, but I don't expect somebody with a 4.68 ERA in Syracuse to be able to help the big club right now.

Francisco Rosario
There are many, many pitchers in organized baseball who can throw hard but aren't exactly sure where the darn thing is going. Rosario is one of those pitchers. Many young phenoms never find the range (where have you gone, Mo Sanford?), but it's easier to teach a hard thrower to find the plate than to teach a control artist to throw harder.

Pitching, Summary
Not good enough. The Jays have two holes in their starting rotation and unreliable middle relief. They won't beat Boston and New York with that. J.P. has to either find a starter ASAP or reload for 2007. End of story.

Overall
As I've said before, we can't expect it all to happen in one year. The gap between the heavy hitters in the AL East and everyone else requires a considerable investment of time and money to overcome. The first step is to build a slightly better team and stabilize the club's finances at the mid-market level; the Jays appear to have done that. After that, they can mobilize their resources for a final push.

One worry: the Jays don't appear to have much help immediately available in the farm system. (Minor-league gurus, feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.) This means that they are at the peak of their current success cycle. To contend in 2007, they may have to open Mr. Rogers' wallet a little wider.
Halfway Home | 63 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#150520) #
I can't say that I agree with the pitching summary.  I am happy with the middle relief , and will be happier when Chulk and Frasor return, and I am cautiously optimistic about the 4-5 starters.

As for 2007, there is pitching in the system that is likely to be ready by mid-season, and most of the offensive core will be returning.  The crunch will likely come after 2007. If fans are hoping for a nice long run at competitivenss, bums in seats during 2006 and 2007 will be the best thing for that. 
AWeb - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#150521) #
This is a great, evven-handed review of the Jays right now. I have one quibble:

Aaron Hill: there is no upper limit on how good he can become.

Now that's optimistic. He could be Robin Yount? Hill at this point is basically reproducing the year Homer Bush had in 1999. High average, very little power, not many walks. Yount did hit like this until he was 23, until he "broke out" at 24, and Hill is just 24 (Bush was 26 when he hit .320 for the Jays), and he does seem to hit the ball harder than Homer "another soft single to centre" Bush ever did. But this is the first time I've heard someone say Hill has that sort of upside. Hopefully, you are correct sir.

Your observations about the ease of Syracuse pitching should be internalized by those among us, including me, who are constantly disappointed in the performance of new pitchers from the minors. We see it happen again and again, but for some reason think it will be different when the next pitcher who has been semi-dominant in AAA makes their way to the Jays. If the Josh Towers observation doesn't make it sink in, nothing will.
Chuck - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#150525) #
Vernon Wells... I have a sinking feeling that we won't see him in a Toronto uniform after 2007.

As I see it, either Wells will sign an extension at the end of 2006 or will not be in Toronto in 2008.

From Wells' point of view, I would imagine that he'd be enthusiastic to talk extension with Ricciardi after this season, one that figures to easily be his best. While he may well believe that he is now a bona fide 950 OPS hitter (and perhaps he is), he may still fear that a return to an 800 OPS in 2007 might severely hurt his FA market value. That said, I'm sure he'd like the opportunity to explore going to Texas, the current center fielder notwithstanding. (Aside: why is everyone pretending that Matthews is so young? He'll turn 32 this summer. I hardly see him keeping up his current success and posing a roadblock as a 34-year old CF in 2008.)

From Ricciardi's point of view, he's certainly got to be pleased at Wells' performance-to-dollars ratio, but will have to seriously decide whether he truly believes Wells to be a $15M a year player. While he does have Rios in his back pocket to take over in CF, he will face immense pressure to re-sign Wells. Trading Wells before or during 2007 will not go over well with either the players or the fans. Letting Wells play without a future contract in 2007 may not go over well with Wells, especially given how proactive Ricciardi has been with extending other players.

My prediction: Wells signs a 5/75 contract after the 2006 season that will override the team's $5M commitment to him in 2007.

But I've been wrong before.
Mylegacy - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#150527) #

Lyle Overbay
We control him for 07 and 08. When Lyle hits a home run his face lights up. He's going to like the next few years here and we're going to enjoy seeing his "career" year 30 homers before Snider takes the bat out of his hand.


By the way, Dave Bush is better off out of Toronto. Agreed. See League, McGowan and Rosario below.


Russ Adams
I know what happens next. He's a good athlete, good ball player and a good guy. He'll come around in the second half. Hill and Adams will be mainstays for years.

John McDonald
Yawn.

Aaron Hill
He'll need to develop a bit more power and patience to become a star - but, right now, there is no upper limit on how good he can become. He's our number two hitter of the future and will rival Robbie Alomar.

Troy Glaus
Many big bombers tend to hit in streaks and slumps, and it looks like Glaus may be one of those.


When we got him I went to his old teams fan sites and they almost all said the same thing. He hits 35 to 40 bombs and walks. As the season goes on you'll tire of him striking out with the bases loaded or walking to load the bases when there was a guy on first and third.


Shea Hillenbrand
Has gone through streaks and slumps, and is now exactly where you'd expect him to be: around .300, with medium-range power and below-average plate discipline. If the Jays wind up dumping players in August, Shea is likely to be the first to be thrown over the side.

Reed Johnson
He's now gone through half a season hitting over .350 and reaching base over 45% of the time. He has line-drive power, can play all three outfield positions, and is 8 for 9 stealing bases. Of course, he puts up these outrageously wonderful numbers because he normally only plays in conditions that are optimal for him. But, still: WOW!!

Frank Catalanotto
Frankly I think Frankie is a thing of beauty. If we ever get to the Holy land in these next few years the Cat will be a big part. Mr Rogers sign this man and Reed. You will regret it big time if you don't.

Vernon Wells
We won't see him in a Toronto uniform after 2006. He'll take the money and run. We all know it. JP will get what he can this off-season when Wells turns down our best long term offer.

Alex Rios
All along, my semi-serious criticism of J.P. Ricciardi is that he hasn't been lucky enough. Who could predict that his emerging star would contract a serious bacterial infection? This, like Kevin Mench's line drive, is the act of a capricious and spiteful Baseball God.

While Alex deserves to be on the All-Star team, he's still got a ways to go before he can be considered a proven star. From now on, opposing pitchers will no longer challenge him with fastballs; they'll throw him tantalizing off-speed pitches just out of the strike zone to see whether they can find a weakness that they can capitalize on. You have to expect that Rios, like Wells and Delgado before him, will see his numbers drop while he learns to adjust to the new pitching patterns. But they both eventually rebounded, and I assume that Rios will, too. Will likely take over centre field and the #3 slot when Wells moves on.
 

At least a 50/50 chance that Rios isn't back in any meaningful way till next year. If so...sigh...there goes any chance of the post season.

Eric Hinske
You have to give him credit. He'll be a KEY part of the 07 team either at DH, FB, TB, RF...er you get it...


Bengie Molina
Molina isn't a better player than Zaun - he doesn't hit better or throw better, and he obviously doesn't run better. But Zaun wears down if you play him too much - he's not young - and it's obviously much better to have a mix of 65% Molina and 35% Zaun than 80% Zaun and 20% Quiroz or Huckaby, even if Gregg might be a better #1. Molina doesn't strike out much, by the way: he's fanned only 21 times so far, which ranks him 10th on the team.

Gregg Zaun
He hasn't complained about his demotion, he reaches base, he can switch hit, and he has power. And he recently bowled Robert Fick over at the plate. What more could you ask for?

The only downside is that he is now 35: he's a young 35, as he hasn't played much, but you've got to think that he can't last too much longer. Recall what happened to Darrin Fletcher and Greg Myers: they were very good, then suddenly they weren't. 
 

Coulda, woulda, shoulda been the number two man behind one of Cash and Quiroz by now.

Chad Mottola
I hope he enjoys his week or two of major-league life, and that all those years slogging through the minors are worth the trouble. Reminds me of a lesser Glaus.

Offense, Summary
Their numbers are inflated by their home park, but the Jays are still hitting the ball far better than any of us expected. And only Johnson and Zaun, and maybe Hinske, are hitting over their heads (assuming that Rios's improvement is for real). Credit goes to J.P. for building a better mousetrap.

Roy Halladay
I have no idea whether, statistically, the Doctor is the best pitcher in baseball. And I admit to being biased. But, speaking as a Blue Jays fan, I say this: I would not trade Halladay for any other pitcher in baseball. I say he's the best. To fans of Johan Santana or Jose Contreras: have a raspberry on me. Phhhphpt.

 DITTO!

A.J. Burnett
Despite being the same age as Halladay, he's clearly not a finished product: his stuff moves so much that he doesn't always have a handle on it. Despite this, he has a tremendous strikeout-to-walk ratio so far, with seven walks and 34 strikeouts in 35 1/3 innings. This indicates that he is bringing plenty to the table.

Strangely enough, I'm not worried about him any more. He didn't pitch that well in his last two starts, but his defense let him down both times. (I think there were botched double play balls in both starts. Turning two outs into zero is hard on a pitcher.) The upside, of course, is his wondrous start against Washington, in which the hitters looked totally overmatched. He isn't going to become Roy Halladay Part II, and he probably won't deliver the sort of performance you normally expect from someone making his salary (i.e., Roy Halladay Part II). But he'll be good enough, I think.

Ted Lilly
In 2004, he was consistently good. In 2005, he was consistently awful. This year, he's been alternately very good and quite bad, which averages out to sorta okay. Still, 16 home runs and 52 walks in 101 2/3 innings means you can't fully trust him with the family silverware. Likely to be gone after 2006, as somebody is going to overpay for him.

Casey Janssen
Shed no tears over the collapse of Josh Towers, as he basically has been cloned. Janssen gives up fewer hits and walks a few more batters, but his K/IP ratio, his home runs allowed, and his ERA are comparable to what we could have expected from Towers before he blew up real good.

Janssen's long-term prognosis is icky: he's struck out 39 in 78 innings, which is exactly one hitter every two innings (otherwise known as the Michalak Line). Basically, this isn't good enough. He'll either have to start missing more bats or the Jays will have to find somebody better.
 

See comments on McGowan and Rosario.

Ty Taubenheim
Ugh, see comments on...wait for it...Rosario and McGowan.

Gustavo Chacin
Before he went down, his numbers weren't all that good, which suggests that his absence isn't hurting the team that much. (Of course, his bad elbow might have been affecting his numbers.) Still tied for third on the team in wins, but that was due mostly to good run support. I still haven't opened my vial of Chacin cologne yet. I'm afraid to.

Josh Towers
Not only was he bad, he was historically bad: virtually nobody gets a chance to rack up an ERA over 9.00 in 12 starts. Most pitchers get dumped long before that. His 16 home runs allowed is still tied for the team lead. It's cruel to think of where the Jays would be if Towers had only pitched at replacement level.

More proof that Syracuse numbers aren't a reliable indicator: Towers' ERA in AAA is 2.66.

B.J. Ryan
Showed signs of being an ordinary pitcher in his last outing: he actually gave up baserunners and runs, which we're not used to seeing. As others on this site have pointed out, Ryan is likely to go into a slump eventually: virtually nobody is this good for this long. Fingers and Eckersley had entire seasons like this, but that's about it. Heck, Willie Hernandez won an MVP award in 1984 with an ERA over twice as high as B.J.'s, and that was in an era that was more pitcher-friendly.

Justin Speier
Has now outlasted almost two complete sets of bullpen pitchers. He was a teammate of Ligtenberg and Adams, and he has remained while Frasor and Chulk have been sent out. His unorthodox delivery affects his control, but makes him tougher to hit than his erstwhile teammates. Seems well-suited to the eighth inning.

Scott Schoeneweis
For some reason, I think of him as having been better than his numbers show him to be. His K/IP ratio is off, which suggests that he might be tiring.

This is as good a place as any to mention that there aren't any Jays relievers who are "vulturing" wins: no Blue Jay reliever has more than two wins right now. The starters have either been very good or very bad, so there haven't been many opportunities for relievers to come into tie games in the middle innings.

Jason Frasor
I think he belongs in the majors. His Syracuse numbers are overwhelming: he's fanned 19 in 9 1/3 innings, and his ERA is 0.96. One warning sign, though: he has walked six batters in those 9 1/3 innings, which suggests that he doesn't have his command yet. And it was this lack of command that caused him to be sent out in the first place. If he comes back, I predict that he won't be any better than when he left.

Pete Walker
Injured again. At this point, I contend that his arm isn't resilient enough to take the strain of a major league job, especially on a team where the manager loves to switch pitchers. I'm not expecting anything from him after this.

Vinnie Chulk
As always, he's similar to Frasor, but in a slightly diluted form. He has struck out 43 batters in 31 innings in Syracuse. I think he's better than Tallet or Downs, and he probably should be welcomed back.

Brian Tallet
Then again, it might not make much difference: Tallet, Chulk and Frasor all have roughly similar major-league numbers. Managers do like left-handed pitchers, though: hitters don't see as many of them, and are more likely to be flummoxed. Tallet has had a lot of walks and a fair number of strikeouts, which suggests good stuff but poor command.

Brandon League
At worse, League should have been our closer now. At best, he should be right up there with Roy. A MASSIVE disappointment.


Scott Downs
Absolutely generic replacement-level left-handed pitcher. Slightly more valuable than some of his bullpen mates because he can go deeper into ballgames (on the days in which he is not being thoroughly pounded by opposing hitters). Has held his job and stayed healthy all year, which puts him ahead of a lot of people.

Shawn Marcum
The best of the available AAA candidates. Marcum's K/IP ratio in Syracuse is better than anyone else's, and he has shown tremendous control. There's a job waiting for somebody if he can step up and take it.

Dustin McGowan
He should be right up there with Roy. A MASSIVE disappointment.


Francisco Rosario
He should be right up there with Roy. A MASSIVE disappointment.


Pitching, Summary
Not good enough. The Jays have two holes in their starting rotation and unreliable middle relief. They won't beat Boston and New York with that. J.P. has to either find a starter ASAP or reload for 2007. End of story.

Overall
As I've said before, we can't expect it all to happen in one year. The gap between the heavy hitters in the AL East and everyone else requires a considerable investment of time and money to overcome. The first step is to build a slightly better team and stabilize the club's finances at the mid-market level; the Jays appear to have done that. After that, they can mobilize their resources for a final push.

One worry: the Jays don't appear to have much help immediately available in the farm system. (Minor-league gurus, feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.) This means that they are at the peak of their current success cycle. To contend in 2007, they may have to open Mr. Rogers' wallet a little wider.
js_magloire - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#150528) #
I have no idea whether, statistically, the Doctor is the best pitcher in baseball.

I love Roy Halladay. But I think right now the best pitcher in baseball is Francisco Liriano. However, I'm not sure if his great success is at least partially helped by the league not having seen him.

Despite being the same age as Halladay, he's clearly not a finished product

Urg. Then why would the Jays have invested so much if he's good but not a finished product. I've been patient with him for being injured half a year, so I expect better than altnernating good-and-bad starts this year and henceforth.

As others on this site have pointed out, Ryan is likely to go into a slump eventually:

I don't know about a "slump" per se, but Ryan is bound to at least maybe give up a few runs here and there, maybe a loss or a BS here or there, but he'll still be very very good. Hopefully guys stop hitting him.

I'm not a big fan of Pete Walker, Scot Downs, and Scott Schowenweis. I do think that Tallet has a distinct pattern of pitching well for 1 inning then crumbling, so perhaps he should be converted from long-inning guy to set up man? Other than that I like the rest of the young arms doing what they're doing right now.

My prediction: Wells signs a 5/75 contract after the 2006 season that will override the team's $5M commitment to him in 2007.

That's interesting. I love Wells but I don't know if I'd pay him that much. He's likely playing at his upper limit right now, and maybe the Jays can reel him in for almost max money? I would give 5 years/65 mil. And hire a hypnotist: "you love Toronto...the fans love you. You want to stay here."
hugo - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#150529) #

I agree the pitching just isn't there to keep up with the Sox/Yankees.  The funny thing, though, is that I think the Jays would probably be the most dangerous of the three in a playoffs.  I would put Halladay/Burnett/Lilly above Mussina/Johnson/Wang and Schilling/Beckett/Wakefield, and their lineup is better than the Yanks (at least at present) and the Sox as well, at least arguably.  The Bullpen would be a huge concern, though neither the Yankees nor the Sox have a shut-down pen either. 

In fact, if you can expect replacement level pitching from the 5th spot for the rest of the season, Chacin comes back strong, and Burnett stays healthy, you could argue that the Jays are very much in it.  The cost of losing on a gamble like that would be forgoing the chance to trade Lilly, who, if made available, could be one of the best pitchers on the market or Cat, who could be a huge help to a number of teams.

Ski - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#150530) #
Given at how Vernon (and Troy Glaus for that matter) are apparantly still upset over JP publically ripping them after the Royals debacle, would that have any bearing on his desire to want to stay longer?  It can't help, thats for sure.
Mick Doherty - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#150531) #
Dave, nothing on field management or front office management?
js_magloire - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#150532) #
What exactly makes the Rogers Centre a homerun hitting park? The fences are symetrical and not too far. The weather is controlled or hot, making the ball more elastic. And the dome blocks wind from blowing towards homeplate, and only allows it to blow towards the fences. (Is this right?) Well I wasn't sure if the RC was just an anomaly because of better hitters - because often in park factors in different years, parks drastically differ, except for the obvious defensive ones like PETCO, etc. Homerun rates have drastically increased the last five years and overal run rates have remained on average in the top 10 or so.

2006: Rogers Centre 1.024 park factor (runs), 12th place
2005: 1.039, 10th place
2004: 1.128, 4th place.
2003: 1.105, 7th place
2002: 0.989, 14th place
2001: 1.152, 6th place

2006: rogers Centre 1.346 homerun factor, 3rd place
2005: 1.255, 5th place
2004: 1.117, 7th place
2003: 1.162, 9th place
2002: 1.104, 12th place
2001: 0.954, 20th place



Magpie - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#150533) #
And the dome blocks wind from blowing towards homeplate, and only allows it to blow towards the fences. (Is this right?)

Yes. At STATS, we note the wind velocity and direction. In the RC, it is always South or South-East - which is blowing out to centre. It's been that way for just about every game I've been to in the last fifteen years. Maybe once every couple of years, I have to enter a "Left-to-Right" for Wind Direction.
Bruce Wrigley - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#150534) #

Given at how Vernon (and Troy Glaus for that matter) are apparantly still upset over JP publically ripping them after the Royals debacle, would that have any bearing on his desire to want to stay longer?  It can't help, thats for sure.

If you're basing this claim on the article that Bob Elliott wrote, the one in which Wells is quoted as saying nothing more than "He runs this team so he can say what he wants," I'd suggest you've been the victim of excessive journalistic creativity.

Elliott is either lying, or Vernon Wells is the world's greatest mime... how else does he come up with "The body language said he wants to return home to Arlington to play with the Texas Rangers."  His BODY LANGUAGE said "Texas Rangers"?  Did he spell it in sign language?  What a load of crap.

My own take - but I don't have the pulse of the dressing room, I only get what's filtered through the working press - is that the players got hot at Ricciardi for saying what he did and pointing fingers, admitted that he was 100% right, and got on with it.

And if I were Wells, I'd want to go home too.

Bruce Wrigley - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#150535) #
Prevailing winds on the lakeshore always come off the water - some have theorized though that the stacked-together parts of the open roof act as a wind scoop that pushes outfield flyballs down, making the RC a better HR park with the roof closed.
MatO - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#150536) #
Is there a feud going on between Richard Griffin and Jeff Blair?  In Griffin's Sunday column, Griffin reported that the KC Royals had pulled the media credentials of reporters who asked tough questions opon the firing of Allan Baird.  Griffin then went on to write that if the Jays had done that then the only one reporting on the team would be the national baseball writer for the Globe.
Bruce Wrigley - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#150537) #

Yet more of the idiotic sniping between various members of the media, looks like.  Yes, the Star's nattering nabobs of negativism appear to have it in for the more realistic Blair and have for a while.  This is all part of the endless low-level feuding that goes on between the Toronto papers, carried on at a microscopic level (by which I refer to the stakes contested as opposed to the brainwave activity of those concerned, although in the Star's case, if the shoe fits...)

Dave Till - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#150540) #
I am startled, and fascinated, by Griffin's jab at Blair in his column. I don't particularly care whether the baseball writers ask tough questions: what I want is to find out stuff I didn't know, either about the game or about the players. Blair is as good at that as anyone, and better than some.

Mick, you asked me about my opinion of the front office and field-level management, so here goes. :-)

John Gibbons appears to be starting to get over his obsession with pitching matchups, which means that he is not burning out his bullpen any more. This has led to slightly improved performances from the middle relievers (which have been a little better than I made them out to be in my original article). He is still one of the most active managers the Jays have ever had - he loves to set runners in motion. He's the anti-Cito in that regard.

The toughest part of a manager's job is the most invisible part - the ability to keep the respect of the players. As far as I know, Gibbons still has that. And it may only be a coincidence, but the Jays' two losses to KC happened while Gibbons was out of town.

As for J.P.: we all know by now that he is not a natural diplomat. This isn't the first time he's said whatever is on his mind at the time, and probably not the first time he tempered his comments after cooling down a bit. The Jays do have a history of settling for modest improvements, and it probably doesn't hurt to hold their feet to the fire a bit. (This might explain the endless sequence of middle relief swappages - if you don't get the job done, you're outta here.)

Much of what a GM does happens behind closed doors, which makes it difficult to accurately estimate how well J.P. is doing. We can't tell what trades he has turned down, for example.

I believe that the development of a successful farm system requires a bit of luck - you can scout and project all you want, but it's impossible to accurately determine which 18-year-old is going to become the next superstar. As I've said above, J.P. has been tremendously unlucky during his time here. To win, he'll need some lucky breaks (as everyone does).
Mike D - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#150542) #

some of Lyle's gap doubles are clearing the wall in Toronto

This may be true on occasion, but I'm more optimistic about Overbay's power surge.  Yes, Overbay hits virtually all of his home runs at home, but he sure hits some long home runs at home.  The sensational Hit Tracker Online lists Lyle's average HR distance at 411.4 feet, which is no wall-scraping distance, and his bomb off Ramon Ortiz was measured at 451.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Lyle hit some more longballs away from home in the second half.

R Billie - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#150544) #

I would be careful about basing Overbay's power on distance.  Wind plays a big part on distance and the wind in the Roger's Centre as discussed above is unique in that it is either non-existent or blowing out towards CF almost every game.

If you were watching the homerun derby last night they had a short blurb from a physicist who stated wind had a very signficant effect on distance.  A favourable wind could add 35 feet to the distance of a well hit ball...a headwind could subtract 35 feet.  That's a difference of up to 70 feet on a flyball in a park that offers mostly favourable winds as opposed to one that offers unfavourable winds.  Those 410 foot homeruns could turn into 360 foot doubles or outs in some road stadiums.

I like Aaron Hill a lot but he's shown less patience and power than I thought he would.  But then so did Rios for two whole years.  Being able to add that power and a few more walks will determine whether Hill can turn into more than a solid but unspectacular regular...i.e. a Paul Molitor type which I was hoping for when he first came up.

Adams' struggles at the plate are a mystery to me.  But he has a history of having poor first halves in the minor leagues.  And his K/BB ratios aren't too bad in the big leagues.  I think despite the fact that he seems like a down to earth and coachable guy, he very easily falls into bad mechanical habits both in the field and at the plate.  He's not anywhere close to maximizing his abilities at the moment.  Instead of a level or slightly downward swing that most successful linedrive hitters employ, he seems to use an uppercut flyball swing.  He seems too concerned with hitting the ball in the air and pulling the ball instead of just hitting the ball on a line where it is pitched.

He's ok in the minor leagues but he gets to the big leagues and starts falling into the same patterns which big league pitchers readily exploit.  Because of his pull happiness he's become quite prone to down and in breaking balls recently.  I think Adams will eventually return to being the OK hitter he should be at the very least.  Whether he can discipline himself mechanically and mentally to be more than that is hard to say...he's passed 25 years old so if he's going to do something it has to be in the next year or so.  I get the feeling he's going to be more of a late bloomer, quite possibly with another team.

AWeb - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#150546) #
RBillie, the great thing about the site that gives the home run distances is that they calculate "standard distance", which tries to take into account the wind, temperature, and altitude. I'm not sure if they can account for the launching pad the dome has been, but they do try. Anyway, Overbay has one of the longest standard distances as well (Alex Rodriguez leads this category, at 416 ft. I've said it before, the lack of landmarks in left field Yankee stadium makes it hard to tell how very far he hits it ), at 409 ft. Glaus ranks slightly higher. So while it is possible that Overbay will lose some HR to the environment in the 2nd half, his distances in the first half seem to be legit.
Jordan - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#150547) #
Instead of a level or slightly downward swing that most successful linedrive hitters employ, he seems to use an uppercut flyball swing.  He seems too concerned with hitting the ball in the air and pulling the ball instead of just hitting the ball on a line where it is pitched.

This was Adams' propensity in the minors, too. I remember doing all those minor-league reports, going through play-by-play accounts and seeing a lot of "R Adams flied out to center," from Double-A on up. He's speedy and has pretty good bat control, so if he hit more groundballs, he'd probably bump his average up a good 15-20 points. But I don't know that you can reconstruct a player's swing like that at the major-league level.

All that said, I simply don't believe Adams is a .229 hitter. He's got one of the lowest BABIPs on the team, whle his line-drive percentage is middle-of-the-pack, better than Hillenbrand, Cat, Glaus or Wells. Hill struggled horribly after his position switch, then came around with gusto. Adams isn't as good a hitter as Hill, but I still predict he'll come back strong in the second half, so long as the team shows faith in him.
R Billie - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#150548) #

I think part of the problem is a lot of those balls in play are lazy flyballs and even some of the harder hit balls are in the air but not deep enough to be doubles or homeruns.  I think Adams has to pattern himself after Catalanatto...a guy who can hit low liners and grounders to the opposite field and will occasionally turn on an offspeed pitch inside for power.  Once he proves he can hit the ball consistently, he will get more respect, draw more walks, hit in more favourable counts, have an opportunity to pull more hitter's pitches, etc.  It will snowball for him.

Around this time last year I think I was bemoaning the fact that Adams forgot how to use left field for getting base hits and the same thing is probably in order this year.  When he does get hits he seems to pull them...he has to see the ball longer and that will also keep him from swinging over those inside breaking balls as well.

Skills - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#150549) #
That hypnotist? I'd try Roy Halladay.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#150550) #
When Adams went down to Syracuse, he did hit the ball on the ground about 50% of the time instead of the 36% that he has this season in the majors.  Maybe Gibbons has to pull a Whitey Herzog and fine Adams $10 for every ball in the air, and reward him with $10 for every ball on the ground.  I agree that he does need to play. 



Mike Green - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#150552) #
Actually, I don't think the wind is the reason for the RC's homer-happy status.  The HR/fly rate in the RC was very high in April and May, and has been falling.  Closed-dome conditions, and in particular humidity,  have more to do with it, I think.  If I'm right, the pitchers will get a much-needed boost until September.
ken_warren - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#150554) #
I agree the pitching just isn't there to keep up with the Sox/Yankees.  The funny thing, though, is that I think the Jays would probably be the most dangerous of the three in a playoffs.  I would put Halladay/Burnett/Lilly above Mussina/Johnson/Wang and Schilling/Beckett/Wakefield, and their lineup is better than the Yanks (at least at present) and the Sox as well, at least arguably.  The Bullpen would be a huge concern, though neither the Yankees nor the Sox have a shut-down pen either.

We need to take defense into account also.  The Blue Jays are "very weak" defensively by  any reasonable measure you care to use at 3B, SS, 2B, C, and RF when Rios is not out there.  They are OK at LF and 1B and good at CF.  Certainly a lack of range has to be a part of the reason why so many Blue Jay pitchers have such ugly ERA(s).  I bet Burnett was expecting Hudson at 2B, and Koskie at 3B when he agreed to come to Toronto.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#150556) #
As for the Wells' contract situation, 5/75 would likely require an interesting distribution of salary, or a budget increase.  For 2008, the Jays already have $45 million committed for Halladay, Glaus, Burnett and Ryan.  They'll have quite a few players who will be arbitration eligible including Alex Rios (in his 5th year). 

It's possible, but like I said, they're going to need more bums in seats.

Magpie - Wednesday, July 12 2006 @ 12:57 AM EDT (#150559) #
The Blue Jays are "very weak" defensively by  any reasonable measure you care to use at 3B, SS, 2B, C, and RF when Rios is not out there.  They are OK at LF and 1B and good at CF.

I certainly don't agree with all of that. The Jays are not very weak at 3b when Glaus plays - his range is roughly league average, and he is very good at starting the 543 DP.  Hill is certainly not in the same class as the best AL shortstops - he's been about as good as Jeter. Adams at this point is indeed a below average second baseman, and that's also a problem. The catchers haven't been very good at throwing out base stealers, but Varitek and Pierzynski have actually been worse - and contrary to the subjective impression people probably have,  the Toronto catchers do not allow more wild pitches and passed balls than everyone else - quite the contrary, in fact. Overbay is definitely a better first baseman than Youkilis, Giambi, or Konerko. And the outfield defense is above average without Rios, and possibly as good as any in the AL with him.

So I'd say they're below average in the middle infield, above average in the outfield and at the infield corners.
Jimbag - Wednesday, July 12 2006 @ 01:52 AM EDT (#150560) #
The outfield is in good shape - Rios, Wells and Johnson cover as much ground as any outfield in the AL, have better than average arms, and are obviously contributing at the plate. Catalanatto seems to be reading balls off the bat better this year, but his relatively weak arm is still a bit of a problem...though he's been so good offensively it's easy enough to overlook that. Hinske has been a surprise filling in for Rios, to say the least.

Around the infield, Overbay got over a bit of a slow start and has adjusted to the AL nicely. Glaus has lived up to his hype, I'm pleasantly surprised at his fielding ability and love his competitiveness. Hill has done an amazing job of fighting off an early slump and getting hot at the plate while adjusting to playing SS. Adams went from being referred to as "E-6" around these parts to having to try to fill Hudson's shoes at 2nd. That's not easy. And he hasn't made it look easy, either.

Behind the plate, I think Zaun will see more action in the second half. His numbers are too good not to. No disrespect to Bing, he's hitting well despite the obvious handicap of never ever conceivably getting an infield single, and while I think Zaun's a better defensive catcher he's managed to acquit himself pretty well, too.

As for the rotation - Chacin's been luckier than good so far, but he's got the stuff to win a few ballgames even without the insane support he's been getting. Towers...his ERA is 9.11 No need to break out the hand puppets to drive that point home. Taubenheim looks like he has promise, but I don't think he's quite there mentally yet...maybe some bullpen time and spot starts in the second half would be to his benefit. Janssen has been a bit of an enigma so far. He didn't look like he had the stuff to be a big leaguer in his first few starts - even when he got his first couple of wins. But then he started to look so comfortable out there that I started to think I had underestimated him. Now I'm second-guessing my second guess. Lilly has been pretty good this year...he's fallen victim to some bad luck (the start against Detroit), and he's authored his own misfortune (pretty much all his starts in the last half of May) - but lately he's been better, and I expect to see him continue in that vein for the rest of the season. AJ - I still haven't seen enough of him to know what to think. His early starts (pre-injury) were so short that I missed him (living in Vancouver has its shortcomings - I rarely get to see the first 3 innings of a weekday home game) and he hasn't exactly defined himself since coming back. Hopefully his arm is feeling good and he goes into the second half not feeling like he has to throw every pitch a million miles an hour to try to make up for the lost first half. He's got the arm, he just has to trust it.

I've gone on long enough, so I'll quit before I get into the bullpen. Besides, they confuse the hell out of me.


Mike Green - Wednesday, July 12 2006 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#150577) #
Here are more mid-season defensive numbers from Chris Dial at Baseball Think Factory.  Note MGL's UZR ratings in the comments for comparison purposes.
js_magloire - Wednesday, July 12 2006 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#150594) #
As optimistic as I am about the final half of the season, there is one more piece of unluckiness the Jays have to bear with. While its great for the Jays to play their divisional rivals as it seems like their only chance to catch them, they only play the Red Sox 7 times, and the Yankees - whom give them many more problems, feast on shoddy pitching, etc. etc. - well the Jays play them 13 times. And its not the 4 game home series that is coming up that worries me - perhaps with an injured Yankee squad and playing at home the Jays will do well - but its in the last two weeks of the season when the Jays play the yankees 6 times, when most of their injured players may very well be back (and given how good the yankees are in the stretch run). Sheffield and Matsui are Jay killers, and they could be back by then. Hopefully I'm wrong. Perhaps the Jays finish 2nd and at lest dislodge the Yankees somehow.
js_magloire - Wednesday, July 12 2006 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#150596) #
One more schedule anomaly. The Red Sox are 16-2 in interleague play. The Jays are 9-9 and don't have Josh Towers anymore and DO have AJ Burnett. Subtract that, and maybe the Jays can cook something up????

Also, I'm looking forward to August 18th, where a 4 game series and a double header between the Red Sox and Yankees ensures 5 games played between the two teams in 4 days. Hopefully they really really pummel eachother....On September 14th, they have another double-header 4 game series in 3 days.

But unluckily the Sox have 9 games left against the Royals. Let's all root for the Royals to get hot against them too!

Nolan - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 12:59 AM EDT (#150605) #

We need to take defense into account also.  The Blue Jays are "very weak" defensively by  any reasonable measure you care to use at 3B, SS, 2B, C, and RF when Rios is not out there.  They are OK at LF and 1B and good at CF.  Certainly a lack of range has to be a part of the reason why so many Blue Jay pitchers have such ugly ERA(s).  I bet Burnett was expecting Hudson at 2B, and Koskie at 3B when he agreed to come to Toronto.

I was reading some work by Chris Dial over at BTF on how players and teams stack up defensively over the frst half of the season and I found the results very interesting in regards to the Jays.   The Jays, as you have pointed out, are weak at 3B, but only when Hillenbrand is playing apparently; Gluas is at least average.   Also,  Aaron Hill is  considerably better than "very weak," it seems, as the Jays have a neutral score at SS - which can only mean that Hill has lifted the position out of the surely negative score that Adams wrought (the stats don't explicitely say this but it seems logical, especially noting Hill is listed as one of the least best defenders among all positions for his work at 2B).

Mike Green - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#150606) #
Actually, Nolan, Chris Dial's numbers indicate that Hill was fabulous at second base and below average at shortstop so far this year and that Adams was average at shortstop and way below avearage at second base.  There are questions about the accuracy of the Adams' rating in light of the small sample sizes.
Chuck - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#150609) #
Ruben Sierra was released. How long till he's back in pinstripes?
Bruce Wrigley - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#150611) #

I'm sorry, this has gotten ridiculous.  You can question it all you want, but the data is the data.  Defensive numbers at shortstop this year:

Adams 271 innings, 41 PO, 88 A, 10 E, 18 DP, .844 Zone Rating

Hill 281 innings, 42 PO, 80 A, 9 E, 14 DP, .804 Zone Rating

You can tell me all you want that Hill *looks* better than Adams.  But the defensive numbers - including the straight-up play-by-play data that go into calculating Zone Rating - are what they are and if you question their accuracy, I'd like to know on what basis.  I'm pretty sure the STATS scorer doesn't have his head you-know-where.

The data are accurate.  Period.  Maybe the numbers don't reflect the reality of the skills of the two players, but if you're going to try to tell me that Hill has better defensive numbers than Adams you're just plain wrong.  There is NO analysis of that data - I have tried - or the other PBP data out there, that can suggest that Hill has performed better than Adams at shortstop.  Adams turned more balls hit to short into outs than Hill has.

For what it's worth, I think Hill's range at short has looked somewhat limited so far, and I thought that Adams had an easier time of making plays far out to his left.  Hill should improve as he gets to know the hitters more.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#150612) #
It's a small sample, as MGL indicates in the comments appended to Chris Dial's article.  Adams' statistics at short over 2004-05  by any measure (David Gassko's Range, MGL's UZR, BP's Rate) were very poor.  Now, it may be that he improved in 2006, but it doesn't seem that the organization thought so and hence went to the trouble of converting him in mid-season. 

Straight Zone Rating has all kinds of issues.  Ball distribution (5-6 hole, at 'em and up the middle), how hard the ball is struck, positioning of the other infielders (particularly the third baseman).  Over this number of plays, there is no reasonable probability that the factors extraneous to the fielder's ability will not grossly affect the rating.  It's much like looking at a hitter's BABIP after 100 at-bats. 

js_magloire - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#150613) #
Wow that is surprising that Hill has made so many errors at SS. Maybe it's because his errors are not throwing errors as often, and not in as many crucial situations. I think he has a better chance to learn because he can at least throw routine plays to first base. But yes, the jays middle infield defence is shoddy and misses some double plays. But Hill is hitting over .500 in July, and also he is making a new transition mid-season.........

But the other thing I wanted to mention was, what are the chances of the Detroit Tigers having  a collapse, at least to come closer to the pack? THeir hitting looks pretty good, none of them are really hitting over their head, except for Marcus Thames (who the heck?), and the rest are hitting at their highest levels. But the pitching seems to be pitching over their head. Zach Miner is 6-1, and I looked at his AAA stats and they aren't that good. Mike Maroth, if he comes back, isn't that good. Jeremy Bonderman is having his career year, I guess he's capable of this. Kenny Rogers is in over his head I believe, he's bound to fall back to earth. Last year he started off hot too I believe. And Nate Robertson isn't that good. Verlander, however, is.

The Tigers went 8-0 against the Royals in the first half. But now the Royals have DeJesus back, their closer McDougal back, and they are not such a bad team, having a bunch of noteable guys, if they don't unload before the trade deadline. The Tigers have 10 games against them in the second half, 6 in the final 9 games. But besides that, the Tigers have a tough schedule, playing the White Sox 13 times and Twins 10 times (who are now better with Liriano and all). THey also play the Yankees and Red Sox a few times.

So here's to a Tigers partial collapse!


Bruce Wrigley - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#150614) #

Fine, but why are you questioning the accuracy of the numbers?  You know as well as I do that defensive performance is variable and subject at times to illusions of context.  If Freddy Sanchez is hitting .360, do you question the accuracy of his batting average because it's out of line with our perceptions of his ability?

Your comment wasn't about ability.

To assert that Hill has performed better than Adams at shortstop, it may be true, but it doesn't show up in the numbers and that needs to be dealt with honestly, not just dismissed with hand-waving about sample size.  If Adams performed so poorly at shortstop that he needed to be hauled off the position, I don't think it's unfair to point out that Hill hasn't performed  any better - not by my observation and not according to the data either.

Maldoff - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#150620) #

Wow, over on ESPN.com, "Insider" Keith Law completely rips up the Jays middle infield and middle relief in his article about what teams need to trade for.  To paraphrase (as it's Insider access only), he says that Hill has turned into a useful hitter, but Adams is a "cipher" on the team, providing no offense and weak defence. He suggests trading for a SS and moving Hill back to 2B.

As far a relievers, he say that BJ is the man, but the rest of the bullpen is terrible.  He indicates that Speier is struggling, and the team's next-best reliever was sent to the minors due to a fit of anger over his last pitching performance. He also calls Scott Downs and Brian Tallet "dreck", and they shouldn't be pitching important innings.

Four Seamer - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#150621) #

Maybe something has been lost in the paraphrase, and I'm sure he's trying to establish his bona fides as an objective observer, but that's decidedly poor form of Keith Law to use such personal language in reference to Adams, Downs and Tallet - men with whom he had a professional relationship only a few weeks ago.  Their performances can, and should, be fairly criticized, but "dreck" and "cipher" are pretty reprehensible words to use when talking about other people, let alone former colleagues. 

Anyways, if he considers that acceptable discourse, the Blue Jays are much better off without him, and ESPN much the poorer for having him.

 

Maldoff - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#150622) #
I wish something had been lost in the paraphrasing, but those were specific words (and he used cipher more than once - also on Wily Tavares and Brad Ausmus).
AWeb - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#150623) #
This might be a dumb question, but how is cipher a reprehensible word ? If your post above was all irony, I withdraw the question, but cipher is a person with little or no influence and/or importance. Has the word been used to mean something harsher?  Because in terms of Adams' contribution this year, the word seems fair to me. It sums up his lack of helpful contributions in any area so far this year. I hope he works it out, but really, Adams is hitting .229/.284/.339, and has made 12 errors playing about 2/3 of the time. Would "harmful to the team winning so far" be better?

Now dreck, that's a mean word. Garbage, waste, sewage, excrement. Certainly over the top describing anyone who happens to have a bad half of professional baseball. Tallet and Downs both share a common problem this year, and that's walking way too many. They shouldn't be pitching important innings, but the recent use of Tallet has shown he might be fine for 1 inning or less, and also Gibbons might be figuring that out. His last 6 outings like that : 3IP, 1 hit, 2BB, 3K. Obviously the smallest of small samples, but it might be he is not best suited to being a "long man", especially since the Jays have so many young starter/reliever types in the system. It is clear that having both Tallet and Downs in the bullpen is silly, they are giving roughly equivalent results in roughly equivalent roles, but we don't need two of them.

Four Seamer - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#150624) #

If Adams has been of no importance or influence this year, people should stop complaining about him.  It seems to me he has been criticized for being a negative influence, and for contributing importantly to a porous infield defence. 

Maldoff's reporting suggests Keith is breaking in a new thesaurus, so I'm not going to argue with him over the meaning of various words, but I stand by my earlier comment.  Civilized adults should not be describing other people, least of all people with whom they work or once worked, as ciphers.  There are other words which convey roughly the same meaning without any of the maliciousness or implied contempt.  

Chuck - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#150625) #
Wasn't Law part of the very management team that put Tallet, Downs, Adams, et al on the field in the first place? Of course, I'm sure he didn't have enough influence to get any specific player on or off the roster, but still, isn't there something you're not supposed to do in the same place you eat? Or at least ate?

His behaviour suggests that he's not angling to get back into MLB any time soon.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#150626) #
To be clear, I don't feel the same way about Adams at second as Adams at shortstop.  His initial defensive adaptation has been pretty good, and I am certainly not suggesting that he has no value over the long term.  He may very well end up as an adequate offensive and defensive second baseman if given a chance, but whether the organization is willing to wait to see how he does is another question entirely.
Frank Markotich - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#150630) #

I think we're being a little hypersensitive here. I mean, maybe Keith Law is a big meanie for calling Downs (5.14 ERA) and Tallet (5.79 ERA) "dreck", but I sure agree that those two guys shouldn't be pitching important innings.

And why should Law have to sugar-coat his comments because he used to work here. Is he not entitled to express his objective opinion? What does his having been part of the management team that hired Tallet and Downs have to do with anything? Do you think the management team was unanimous in its opinions on these players? For all we know, Law may have argued against it. This reminds me of the local reaction to Bob Costas in the 1989 ALCS.

 

Maldoff - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#150636) #

Yankees sign Sidney Ponson. Woohoo!!!

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2518391

Halfway Home | 63 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.