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Oh great. The Royals.

If the Jays were a couple of games closer to the teams they're (theoretically) chasing, I would be psyched for this one. Christmas in August. Finally a break from the schedule maker. But now that the Jays need a miracle instead of a mere .700 run, this has all the trappings of one of those mid-September series at home against another eliminated team, and it's not even September yet.

At least you'll get to read about KC ace Luke H. from Tennessee and his dreaded one-seamer, Ryan Shealy getting his chance to shine, a 31-year-old rookie Disciple of Gagne and a guy who can jump over a car if you follow us...

On to the Advance Scout!

General: Again, we can't tell you how totally excited we are over the Kansas City Royals. We'd just follow Pistol's lead on this if we could ... Some recent headlines? "Can 100 losses be avoided?", "Sloppy Royals fall apart", and Rob's personal favourite, "Royals do all the little things wrong in loss" ... One of those dreary stories contained this hilarious line: "If you want optimism, the Royals are 7-8 in the last two weeks." ... Rany Jazayerli, tell us what you really think: "Buddy Bell is a joke as a major league manager. He has always been a joke. I see no reason to think he will stop being a joke in the future." ... Bell has not read Moneyball -- oh, calm down, says Rob, I bet most of you have never read Macbeth -- and went on to say there’s more to baseball than stats, which is a very reasonable thing to say. And while we're on the topic of reasonable things to say, what was his exact quote? "There’s so much more to this game than just stats and OPS, PMS, whatever it’s called." ... Scored 10 runs in the first inning on Wednesday, but ended up losing 15-13 anyway as "Nasty" Mastny picked up his second save with 15 strikes on 19 pitches, including two strikeouts. Right, the Royals. Sorry ... The Royals are planning to spend about $250 million to improve their stadium. In related news, Harvey's is now going to serve their food on fine silverware ... Slogan appears to be "Your Team. Your Town", one notch above "New York Mets. Our Team. Our Time." ... A while back, there was much praise for new hitting coach Mike Barnett's early results with the Royals hitters. Well, KC was so bad in April (Barnett was hired May 2), you'd figure they would revert to being merely below average sooner or later. To wit, here's a sampling of Super-Secret 100% Accurate Advance Scout Dialogue for you. Scout 1: "Of course it's probably good ol' regression. But the important thing is that the public perception in KC is that it's Barney." Scout 2: "You're right, it certainly can't be the players." ...

Luke Hudson: Started the year as a reliever, but has enjoyed a nice 5-1 run as a starter ... Made his first start of the year at home against the Jays on July 7, defeating A.J. Burnett ... There will still be a few players in the Jays' lineup seeing Hudson for the first time, as Hillenbrand, Hinske and Adams all started in the first Hudson game ... Hudson is currently KC's best University of Tennessee alum named Luke H., but for the Royals' sake, hopefully the other Vol on their 40-man roster assumes that title soon ... Looks like Roy Halladay without the superhuman command. Hudson's BIP stats are similar to Doc's, with a (slightly lower) groundball rate in the 50s and a (slightly higher) line drive rate in the low 20s, but Hudson gives up more walks and gets fewer K's ... Hudson has a hard fastball that tends to be around 93 and occasionally hits 95, but his go-to pitch is a nasty two-seamish sinker out of a split-ish grip that runs 88, 89 and has a ton of movement when it's on. According to the Royals' excellent TV play-by-play team, Bob Davis and Paul Splittorff, the Royals don't really know what to call it because of the wide difference in velocity from the four-seamer. Pitching coach Bob McClure suggested "one-seamer," because the way Hudson holds it, you see one seam between his index and middle fingers. Whatever it is, Hudson tried turning it into a changeup, but couldn't slow it down enough for it to be effective, so he uses it as a second fastball instead ... McClure loves that pitch: "Sometimes he'd throw that pitch and it'd drop off and guys would be looking over to their dugout, saying, 'What in the world was that?'" ... Has a curve that breaks from 1 to 7 and hits the high 70s, as well as a straight change, but the fastballs are his bread and butter ... Tell me that's not Roy Halladay (aside from the 5.77 ERA) ... If that's not enough, Hudson was born twelve days after Doc ... Pitched well last Friday, but he got an extra couple of days off for a "dead arm" ... As a kid, his neighbour didn't appreciate the homemade batting cage in the Hudson backyard: "So he took us to court and we ended up rallying the whole neighborhood and we won the case. I remember me and my brother speaking up in court -- Will was about 8 years old, I was about 12. It was as nervous as I've ever been but it all worked out." ... The 1 in Hudson's aforementioned 5-1 record as a starter was an absolute massacre. Hudson gave up 11 runs in the first inning on August 13 vs. Cleveland - first time that's happened "since Kid Nichols of the Boston Beaneaters was zinged for 12 runs by the Brooklyn Bridegrooms on Sept. 21, 1897" ... That start saw Hudson rack up a dazzling -9 Game Score. Beat that, Russ Ortiz ...

Runelvys Hernandez: Named his son Runelvys Jr. and his daughter...well, we're not sure. Hopefully not Runlysa Marie ... In 2003, was named Opening Day starter after winning a coin flip against Jeremy Affeldt, and was actually the first pitcher to win three games in the majors that year. Unfortunately (if you want to put any stock in pitchers' W-L records), he would win only four more in '03 ... Started 2006 with a bang in his return from injury on April 27, locking down the Twins over seven two-hit innings. Matt Stairs liked what he saw. "He took the mound with an attitude. Maybe what he has gone through is a learning experience that shows him the big leagues is not easy. Hopefully, Runelvys realizes that now and goes on to win 20 games for us." Unfortunately, the learning experience continues. Hernandez has only won twice since and his ERA sits at 7.50 ... Four sweetest words in the English language: More walks than strikeouts ... Hernandez seems to get in walk trouble because he can't get ahead of hitters with his inconsistent fastball. It's usually around 89-91 but doesn't do anything special ... Hernandez' best pitch is a looping changeup that runs at around 80. He also throws a mid-80s slider. When Hernandez gets ahead, he's very tough; if the hitters can't just lay off anything that isn't a fastball, Hernandez does well ... The Royals' broadcasters like to say Hernandez rarely has both his command and his stuff going at the same time ...

Odalis Perez: The lefty gave up only two runs over seven innings against Cleveland Tuesday in what was probably the best start of the year for him ... One-third of the Royals' return for Dodger reliever Elmer Dessens, who is pretty much the same pitcher statswise, except he's not starting ... Earlier in his career, he was one-third of the Dodgers' return from the Braves for Gary Sheffield ... The Dodgers signed him to a three-year extension heading in to 2005 after ERA+ years of 126, 89 and 127 ... Is building up his arm strength as a starter, and is becoming one of the Royals' best inning eaters. He went 4 innings in his AL debut against the White Sox, then 5, 6, 7 and 7 in his next four starts. He was allowed to throw 117 pitches in his second-most-recent start, a 5-4 loss to the White Sox ... Won't overpower anyone with his fastball, which is usually around 90, but has some solid breaking stuff and rarely gets into walk trouble ...Throws a circle change in the low 80s that tails down and away from righties; he also has a cutter in the high 80s which he throws often to righties, and a high-70s breaking ball that he uses as an out pitch against lefties ... The changeup and cutter are probably his two best pitches, as he's actually been slightly tougher on righties over the course of his 7-year career (.263/.316/.420 for lefties, .259/.309/.409 for righties) ... Resolves at-bats quickly; he's thrown a very efficient 3.6 pitches per batter in 2004, 2005 and in LA this year. His 4.1 in KC is probably going to fall back to that mark ... Is one of two MLB players to have Odalis in his full name, the other being Miguel Odalis Martinez Tejada. Fine, you come up with something to say about the Royals' starting pitchers ...

Joey Gathright: We are contractually obligated to point out that he has the ability to jump completely over a car ... Beats the ball into the ground; his GB% is usually above 70 ... His speed is making him hit-lucky for the third year in a row: he's at 14.6% LD and .275 BABIP. He still hasn't homered in the majors and his offense still doesn't amount to much more than hitting grounders to the left side, and I wouldn't want him as an everyday player on my team, but how many guys are more fun to watch? ... Can jump all the way over a car. Isn't that awesome? ... Has made a concerted effort to draw more walks this year; he's walking 11.6% of the time. If he can just cut down on his strikeouts, he's got a very bright offensive future. With his results on balls in play and baserunning speed, Gathright could be a massively annoying leadoff hitter in the Scott Podsednik mold ... For some reason, Gathright's only 5-for-10 stealing bases in KC ... Did we mention he can jump over a car? ...

Ambiorix Burgos: Ambiorix Wayne Burgos has blown 12 saves this year, used primarily as a closer...but not exclusively. By my count, he's been taken out of that role at least three times this year, and Joe Nelson is being used more in the ninth right now ... He's 22, but in his two major-league seasons he's posted K rates above 9. This is promising, especially given his 15.5 and 16.0 LD% over those two years. If he can find consistent command and avoid fits of walk-madness, the Royals will have a solid closer on their hands for the next five years ... Derek Jeter on Ambiorix: "He is not a guy you want to fall behind; he throws 97-98 mph" ... Out pitch is a sharp splitter, but he's also comfortable dialing up the fastball and throwing it by hitters with two strikes; he whiffed Travis Hafner that way last night ... Has pitched three nights in a row, so he's unlikely to see action tonight ...

David DeJesus: Oddly, he's one of the least effective basestealers in the game, with 17 steals in 36 attempts over his career. This year, he's 3-7 ... He's the Royals' Hank Aaron Award nominee ...

John Buck: Wyoming native has thrown out 38% of basestealers this year, a career high; he's in his third year and has consistently improved at throwing runners out ... Is a very safe bet to hit about .240 with average power while providing that solid defense. He's the least of the Royals' worries ...

Paul Bako:
Full name is Gabor Paul II Bako. I don't believe it for a second ...

Doug Mientkiewicz: Hustling infield fan favorite has been shut down for the year due to a lower back strain and "weakness in his legs," according to David Boyce of the Kansas City Star ... This clears up playing time for the Royals' new first baseman ...

Ryan Shealy: Finally getting his chance to emerge from the shadow of Todd Helton ... Acquired from the Rockies along with righty reliever Scott Dohmann in exchange for Jeremy Affeldt and Denny Bautista ... Buddy Bell likes his approach at the plate: "He’s got a pretty good feel about what he’s doing out there. When there’s a man in scoring position he cuts his swing down. He knows the situation and doesn’t over swing. It’s unusual for a young player. He’s a smart kid" ... Maybe Shealy looks mature because he's 26 going on 27. His birthday is Tuesday ... He's downplaying the fact that he only has two homers thus far: “They (home runs) kind of just show up. Anybody who hits home runs will say that. The more you think about them, the less they tend to show up. I will try to put a good swing on it, and everything else will take care of itself” ... He's showing off his patience to the tune of 4 pitches per PA; this probably contributes to the fact that he strikes out almost a quarter of the time, but that figure should go down ... At 6'5" with long arms, Shealy is an inviting target at first base for infield throws ... Is a righty-throwing first baseman ...

Emil Brown: Came out of nowhere - like, there was nothing in his minor-league stats at all to suggest he'd be an average major leaguer - to claim a spot in the Royals' lineup. And he went on to be one of the Royals' few consistently good performers, batting .286/.349/.455. This year? He's doing the exact same thing, batting .288/.350/.455 (no misprint!), with a slightly lower strikeout rate. He's also an excellent basestealer, 16-20 in the past two years and 36-46 career, and a decent defensive leftfielder. And he'd been out of the majors for three full years after last surfacing with the Padres in 2001. It really is true: Youneverknow ...

Andy Sisco: Is actually going by "Andrew Sisco" this year. Sounds nice and intimidating, like his figure but unlike his stats ... The 6'10" lefty, a Rule 5 draft pick a year ago out of the Cubs' system, posted a 9 K rate last year while holding hitters to a .243/.343/.350 line. This year, not so much; he was demoted in July ... His arsenal sounds like it should be overpowering on paper, particularly to lefties - a low-90s fastball (though he can reach back to throw harder), with a splitter and a curveball from a high release point - but the command issues are still nagging ... Since his return on August 8, he's contributed a 2.45 WHIP to the KC bullpen ...

Jimmy Gobble: The Royals' other lefty is striking out a third of the lefties he faces and holding them to a .225 OBP ...

Joe Nelson: Righty reliever is in his third tour of duty in the majors. He had short appearances with Atlanta in 2001 (2.0 IP) and Boston in 2004 (2.2) before earning a full-time gig in the Royal pen this year ... He's actually been very effective; he is holding batters to .223/.310/.357 with backwards platoon splits ... Uses Eric Gagne's Vulcan Change, possibly the coolest pitch in baseball. It's like a splitter, except with the ball held between the middle and ring fingers; the pitch moves almost screwballishly and doesn't spin. Nelson only throws 90 mph, so it's not deadly deadly, but that pitch has been very effective for him so far ... Will probably go for the save tonight, if the opportunity arises ...

Mark Teahen: Wrote the following for MLB.com's Player Perspectives: "I'm now hitting in the middle of the order. It's nice that my coaches know I'm capable of that role but, frankly, it also shows that we need to develop as a team more and have more guys who can hit in the middle of the order." ... Slugging percentage has skyrocketed this year: only Carlos Beltran's SLG has increased more this year than Teahen's, according to the Royals' Department of Exotic Statistics ...

Esteban German: A pleasant surprise, hitting .313 in 211 PA as a backup infielder. Has 26 walks and 33 K's. He's primarily a second baseman; if he could play short, he'd be battling Berroa for the starting SS job in 2007 ...

Mike Sweeney: The captain is rounding back into form. He was out with a bulging disc in his upper back, but Bell says his bat speed is as good as it's ever been ... He's a Royal lifer. This is Sweeney's 12th year in Kansas City. I wonder if his number will get retired. He's 33, his career line is .302/.373/.498 with 1304 hits and 186 homers in 4311 at-bats. He's a model of consistency - he's posted an .850+ OPS seven years in a row, and though he's only at .769 in 124 at-bats this year, there's still plenty of time to catch up ...

Advance Scout: Royals, August 25-27 | 9 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Friday, August 25 2006 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#154134) #
Check out the leverage indices of the relievers.  When almost all are below 1, you know the club is bad.  They get way behind early and often.  And when they get ahead by 10 runs, it's still not good enough.

"Waiting for Gordon" (Beckett by way of the Barenaked Ladies) sums up their plight.


Craig B - Friday, August 25 2006 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#154135) #
I honestly wonder if Sisco might be a better pitcher if he forgot about the walks and just pitched.  Seems to me he'd be a lot harder to hit if he were concentrating on making good pitches rather than getting it in the zone... it used to be that a lot of relievers would walk six guys per nine innings and still have moderate success...
Advance Scout: Royals, August 25-27 | 9 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.