Well Rotoworld is reporting the following,

Blue Jays are going to prepare Scott Downs as a starter coming out of spring training, they mention he is still most likely to pitch in relief and this is just being done because it is much easier to transition him back to relief rather than the other way around.

They also are reporting that the Jays plan on using Halladay less in Spring training to save more of the miles on his arm for the games that count.

Thats all i got

Kapler will manage the Red Sox South Atlantic League club in Greenville this summer.

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2006/12/kapler_to_retir.html

Blue Jays are going to prepare Scott Downs as a starter coming out of spring training

Praise the Lord! JDog, you just absolutely made my day, heck, you've made my weekend!

Gibby's going to have alot of work this spring compared to last year when he knew who his 24 guys were and only had to decide on the last guy(turned out to be Pete Walker, a guy I would love the Jays to bring back on a try-out but I would have much too much respect to string him along...).

He's got 8 guys auditioning for 2 rotation spots and some of them plus others like Accardo, Romero, Rosario and Tallet vying for 4 spots after Ryan, Frasor and League! Then there's the back-up catcher's duel and to a lesser degree the rounding out of the bench. I can't wait til March!

   Interesting analysis in Friday's Star about the performance of bargain-bin free-agent pitchers last year.  Since the Jays have signed two of this category of pitcher for 2007, and since they could be relying heavily on bargain-bin pickups for 40 per cent of the starting rotation this year, it's interesting to look at how these kinds of acquisitions fared in 2006.   The Star looked at 10 of the bargain signings of last year who had an average base salary of $1.45-million.   The average for the 10 pitchers was 113 innings pitched and five-and-a-half wins.  Not bad, but not great.  A separate chart shows that almost all of the 10 pitchers had ERAs of between 5 and 6.6.   Not very encouraging.

   The Star takes a more optimistic spin by focussing on the Colorado Rockies, who signed Josh Fogg and Byung-Hyun Kim from the bargain bin.  They totalled 327 innings pitched and 19 wins last year -- pretty good numbers, although their ERAs were around 5.5. 

   I'm sure the Jays will be ecstatic if they get 19 wins and 327 innings pitched from Thomson and Ohka this year.  But those were definitely the exceptions, not the rule, last year -- as the Star's own research confirms.

  Here is the link to the story:  http://www.thestar.com/Sports/article/175181

Apparently the Rockies are talking with the redsox about trading helton for possibly Craig Hansen and two prospects.  This would not be good for the Jays, that would be one scary lineup.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6414656 

I would imagine that a broken down 33/34-year old Helton would still likely present an upgrade over a healthy, 28-year old Youkilis, but would that incremental upgrade warrant the cost? Wouldn't those dollars be better used where they could provide more leverage?

Should the Red Sox acquire Helton, that would make Hinske all the more redundant on that roster, with Youkilis sliding into the backup 1B/3B role. Maybe the Jays could get Hinske back and drop Stairs? This has been discussed before, but Hinske would be a versatile supersub and could easily log between 200 and 300 AB.

As I see it, the Red Sox roster will be composed as follows:
C (2): Varitek, Mirabelli
DH (1): Ortiz
1B/3B (3) : Helton, Lowell, Youkilis
2B/SS (3): Pedroia, Lugo, Cora
OF (4): Ramirez, Crisp, Drew, Pena

If they intend to carry 12 pitchers (and who doesn't these days?), there's no room for Hinske.

On the Todd Helton talks...

Here's a tidbit I picked up on a link from the MLB Rockies site Bio-Page of Todd; "A back problem that flared before the 2005 season, a strained calf muscle that sent him to the disabled list late that season, and a stomach ailment last season (06) that forced him to the DL early and robbed him of strength and power all year led to the health concerns."

Also Rotoworld is LESS than enthusistic, mentioning that the Yourkster had the same away from home OBP as did Todd.

Todd is still an interesting player BUT this guy is not the monster he used to be, he is a shadow of his former self. No big deal if the Sox get him.

Todd is still an interesting player BUT this guy is not the monster he used to be, he is a shadow of his former self. No big deal if the Sox get him.

If the Helton deal happened, how likely would a Hinske release be?

I mean, that team's got plenty outfielders and corners already, and it's not like they're looking for a DH.

I'd welcome Hinske back with open arms. I've been an official Batters Box chicken little on 3B depth this offseason.

From the Thomas interview:

Frank Thomas to Jays fans: "Buckle Your Seatbelts!"

If the marketing department doesn't take that quote and make it the slogan of the 2007 Toronto Blue Jays there's something seriously wrong here.

even as a shadow of his former self i could reasonably see a 330 avg 420 OBP with like 45-50 2b and 12-20 HR over a full season. it's the fenway effect.

The humidor effect notwithstanding, Coors is still a pretty good place to hit (though, admittedly, not what it once was). It's hard to imagine Fenway helping Helton more than Coors.

  Actionjackson, you are focusing on the career record of Thomson and Ohka, and you are saying that their career record is more important than the injuries they suffered in 2006 and the continued uncertainty that those injuries have created for their chances in 2007.   But no general manager in the major leagues could afford to think that way.   The health and reliability of a pitcher is a key factor in determining his value to any team.  In fact, the Star's analysis is interesting because it looks at the MARKET VALUE of the 10 pitchers, which is similar to the market value of Thomson and Ohka because the injuries to Thomson and Ohka have affected their value.  Major-league managers have assigned a value of between $500,000 to $1.5-million to all of these pitchers, including Thomson and Ohka and the 10 pitchers last year, so it is not a comparison of apples and oranges.  You're trying to say that you are smarter than all of the major-league managers and that you are confident that Thomson and Ohka are worth much more than any of the 10 free-agent pitchers last year who got similar salaries.  Perhaps you are right -- there's always a chance -- but you must at least concede that the Star's comparison has some analytical value.   If Thomson and Ohka have lost some of their pitching ability because of injuries in the past 12 months, their career record is not very relevant.

As a matter of interest (to some) Todd Helton's overall 2006 stats were 302/404/476 his splits:

Home 338/445/531  Away: 266/360/421

Quite a difference.

Interestingly, if he was replacing Lowell (with Youkilis moving from 1st to 3rd to let Todd play 1st), Lowells overall 2006 stats were 284/339/475 and his splits were: Home: 260/327/436 Away: 310/352/514

What does all this mean? It means we've got just too many d*mn numbers to think about. 

Frank Thomas' splits from 2006:

Home:  242/347/549 OPS: 896

Away:    302/417/541 OPS: 958

This guy is gonna mash with the Jays HOME and AWAY!

If Hill is capable of playing a reasonable big league SS,  a role JP was considering for him earlier in the offseason. signing Belliard would help in a variety of ways:

a) It would remove the rally-busting hole at SS in our lineup;

b) Having Hill, Belliard, and one of the existing SS options on the roster would allow Hill to spot Glaus at 3rd base if necessary;

c)  Hill has far more value to the franchise at SS than he does at 2nd base. This offseason has shown that established  2nd baseman are far cheaper than established SS. 

Such a move would be predicated on an assessment of Hill's defensive capabilities but a kid that athletic should be given a chance to establish himself as a big league SS, particularly when the current alternatives are so lacklustre offfensively.

    Actionjackson -- here's what we agree on:  Thomson and Ohka have the ability to be #3 starters -- if their health allows it.   But it's a gamble, because their health is unpredictable and they could be complete busts.   If their health doesn't work out, they won't even make the rotation.  They have a big upside and a big downside.   Does this make them more valuable than a solid predictable #5 starter?   Not necessarily.   You like the signings of Thomson and Ohka because you're fixated on their career performances and you think that the gamble will work.    I like the signings too, but only because I'm an optimist by nature.  The Jays tried to get Lilly and Meche, who would have been much less unpredictable than Thomson and Ohka, but they failed, so now they are really rolling the dice.  Let's at least admit that it's a very unpredictable gamble. 

    As long as you're fixated on the upside of Thomson and Ohka, you could give some credit to the Star article, which mentioned several scrap-heap reclamation projects of past history who succeeded brilliantly:  Chris Carpenter, Pete Schourek and Dave Stewart, all acquired for minimal cost who went on to be among the top pitchers in their league (for a season or two, anyway).    I suppose there's even a chance that Thomson and Ohka could follow that route. 

    I'd like to know more about how the Jays make a medical assessment of pitchers such as Thomson, Ohka, Burnett, Carpenter, etc.     Medical analysis is becoming so crucial in this game.  If you guess wrong (Carpenter), the team will be kicking itself for years.  If you guess right, you can end up with a great pitcher for a minimal price.  

The signings of ohka and thomson remind me of the signing of Frank Castillo a few years back.  A 31 year old injury riddled pitcher signed for cheap on a one year contract .  We ended up getting 138 innings out of him with 10 wins and 5 losses.  It was a signing that could have gone either way.  In the end Frank was one of the better pitchers the Jays had that year.

I see a very good chance that we will get a similar performance from one of these two, while the other rides the DL.  If this happens the signing were still smart as the cost was low.  I would be very shocked if both pitchers disapointed.

Frank Castillo pitched very well for us in 2000(I believe) and it's a shame that he chose to sign elsewhere with Boston or Chicago(one of the sox) because he just sort of dropped of the map. What happened to his career post-Jays?
I can't believe that Ron Belliard is still available - perhaps GM's around major league baseball are realizing that second sackers/shortstops generally don't hit well so they may aswell try out youngsters within their systems and hope that they hit the jackpot (Cano) on something. I think Belliard could be had for a Bengie Molina type deal one year $3-4 mil to re-establish himself for next FA crop. He could provide solid D and 10-15 homers, 30-40 doubles, a .270-.280 average with a good slug. perc. for a middle-infielder(.420-.450).
I would definitely love to have Eric Hinske back since we're paying some $2 mil of his salary anyway. It'll be reassuring to have a bench of Hinske, Clayton(assuming Belliard signs and Hill stays at short), Fasano(stache!), J-Mac(Mr. Prime Minister).
I just noticed an interesting stat(one that's been sitting in front of me forever really): Johnson hit .319 in 461 AB, he only trailed off toward the end of the season in August and Semptember, which we can only attribute to the "laws" of averages. That is, it would have been practically inconceivable that he would continue to bat .340 through the last two months of the season. Nevertheless, I think if he had been a full-time player(500-550 AB's) and had he maintained say a .280 batting average(about his career average before last year), he would have finished with .312(if he maintained a .270 average which is unarguably his floor, he would have finished with .310). That's fantastic because when you take into account his .294 rookie average in 414 AB's and the growing pains of 2004/2005 where he batted roughly .270 over 935 AB's, this guy is certainly a .300 hitter. So perhaps we should stick with Reed Johnson for a full season - he deserves a chance - and let Lind(who arguably just had a hot streak to start his career which is not unlikely for some hitters: see Reed Johnson's first 3 months April-June '03, he batted .325 in 140 AB's & Aaron Hill's first 2 months May-June'03, he batted .358 in 131 AB's) play a full season at AAA.
If Johnson is for real as his 2006 season promises, we might have a stud here: how many .300 outfielders can also boast his versatility and above-average defense! This could also answer what some see as worries about Lind's eventual position as he can become our full-time DH in 2008, which supposes that his 2007 AAA season is a success. At this point Frank Thomas can either be dealt if his 2007 season is a success or stay as power hitter who comes off the bench frequently in pinch-hit situations(more like once every game!).

BUCKLE YOUR SEATBELTS!

"My point about the chart was what the heck is the writer grouping these pitchers together other than their salary level? Why not group them according to what they've done on the field?"

Because the article was about cheap starting pitchers not about cheap starting pitchers with higher ERA+. Ohka and Thomson are both huge health risks with declining K rates and were not exactly aces to begin with anyway. I like the signings, because they are cheap and carry low risk, but I don't think they are somehow way above guys like Fogg, Armas, and Helling just because they had a good ERA+ in the NL a few years ago. Both these guys (who are over 30) had ERAs of 4.82 and had major injuries while pitching in the weaker league.

 "Why put money into someone whose absolute ceiling is as a #5 starter? Thomson and Ohka, if things break right, could be #3s. You would never say that of the 7 I mentioned above. Why pay for chaff?"

Because sometimes you just need someone to eat innings and it isn't as though the upside for Ohka or Thomson is somehow much higher than that of Armas or Fogg anyway.  If you are expecting Ohka or Thomson to be #3 starters, you are going to be dissapointed. These guys were cheap for a reason beyond just being injured. I'd be suprised if either one has an ERA under 5.00.

Garth, I like the Frank Castillo analogy. ONLY, instead of one chance (Frank), we've got two chances to hit lightening in a bottle with both Ohka and Thomson. Also, both appear EAGER to return to effectiveness. With apologies to Bing Crosby, "Thou it's been said many times many ways..." it would be GREAT if both blossomed!

SheldonL, I share your "Buckle your seatbelts" enthusiam! But one minor friendly point; since you thought that the question of what happened to Frank after he left the Jays was interesting enough to ask the question...why not Google him and find out and then share it with the rest of us? That way WE get your editorial comments AND your reporting. The rest of us win two ways!

CBC Interested in Jays

TSN is expected to televise between 20 and 30 Toronto Blue Jays games this year. A well-placed source said the CBC is interested in acquiring a game-of-the-week package. About 145 games in total will be carried on television, with Rogers Sportsnet picking up the bulk.

I would definitely enjoy hearing Brian Williams covering the odd Saturday game. It would certainly help CBC Sports' deteriorating sports coverage.

    Curt Schilling says he will pitch in 2007.    He's cancelled his retirement plans.  If he can't work out a deal with the Red Sox, he will try for a deal with another team -- but not the Yankees.  God bless him.

    If not the Sox or Yankees, is there a fit with the Jays? 

    Here is the link.    http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070129.wsptschill29/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball/home

 I misread the story.  He's announced that he wants to pitch in 2008 instead of retiring in 2008.  We already know that he will pitch for the Sox in 2007.

China fan, I cringe when I hear people say the Jays screwed up with Carpenter

Well said, actionjackson! I really hope that this puts to rest all the trash that people talk about the Jays' supposedly poor handling of Carpenter. One could compare it to Glendon Rusch and the Cubbies. He is not going to pitch this year at all because he's recovering from a serious blood clot ailment. Knowing that, the Cubs chose to release. Similarly, Carpenter was a prospect (or atleast a young pitcher) who showed flashes but never consistently put together strong pitching lines. So that culminated the risk for the cost-conscious Jays who at the time were losing millions of dollars(a reported $50 mil during JP's first year). No one could have seriously predicted at the time that he would be an above average pitcher let alone a potential Cy Young winner after his recovery. We don't see Houston or Florida fanscomplaining about having passed on Johan Santana(I'd hope atleast). Hindsight's 20-20, right?

Mylegacy, thanks, I needed that. According to thescore.ca, Frank Castillo has retired. He spent 2003-05 primariy in AAA after posting a 5.07 ERA in 163 innings with Boston in '02. He pitched decently in the first two years in AAA (ERA of 4.25 approximately) but in '05 he faltered with Florida's AAA afiliate in Albuquerque with a 5.53 ERA in 143 innings. He did get a start with the Marlins where he went  4 1/3 innings with 4 hits surrendered, 5 walks and 5 runs. The lone bright spot was his 4 K's. He's currently 37 but I guess he must have felt that his time had passed.

I can help but think that he pitched his best season during the 2000 season as our number 2 starter behind Boomer. he pitched 138 innings in 24 starts and posted a very respectable 3.59 ERA. He held hitters to 112 hits for an exceptional WHIP of 1.21; he also had 104 K's. Just for fun, imagine his projected stats for a full season's worth 32 starts. His stats would have been about the same as Tim Hudson's and certainly better than Boomer's, both of whom finished 2nd and 3rd behind Pedro in Cy Young voting. What's even more intriguing is that the Jays fell short of the AL East crown by a mere 4 and a half wins(Yankees won 87 in 161 games). Certainly, a team that boasted 7 players with 20 or more homers could have scrounged up 88 wins. Perhaps an AL crown could have clinched an MVP award for Carlos Delgado who threatened for a Triple Crown all year. He arguably had a better year than the juiced up Giambino...oh my, what could have been with 8 more starts/62 more innings!

The Jays have 5 guys currently that could hit 20 homers, perhaps there is an outside chance of two more guys reaching the mark. Quick trivia question: name the 7 players in 2000 with 20 or more homers. It's an easy one - try not to cheat(ie. don't google it)...

Oh, SNB got most of them. I find it hard to believe Gonzo ever posted 20, so I suppose Stewart replaces him, and I really don't believe Fletch ever got 20, but he must have. The outfield is covered, as is third base, first base and DH. Gonzo and Bush certainly didn't near 20, so through this reasoning, Fletch had to.

I remember hearing in the car about the excellence of Chris Michalek and having this opinion reinforced by my dad, saying he would be a part of the Jays successes. I also recall a young Brandon Lyon getting hot around these years, but I'm not totally sure if that would've been 2000.

Funny what the mind remembers: I remember the CBC Crew broadcasting Lyon's first start complete with the inning by inning reaction of his parents who had made the trip to Toronto.