New York Mets 2007 Season Preview

Wednesday, February 28 2007 @ 07:50 AM EST

Spring training means worn-out cliches, sun-burned Caucasians, and friendly players if you happen to go to a game in Arizona or Florida. It also means BB's annual season previews. We hope you enjoy them this year. We begin with the Mets.

You might think that the Mets would be a prohibitive favourite in the NL East after a 97 win season, with contributions from a core of young players that rank among the best in the majors. They shouldn't be.

So, why not exactly, Mr. Jones? First, they out-performed their Pythagorean, and in this case, I think the Pythagorean record (91-71) is a better reflection of where they were. Second, they may very well have real difficulty in the run prevention side of the game this year, due to Pedro Martinez' injury and a lacklustre defence.

The offence- outfield

Before we get started, a word of thanks to our sources. Chris Dial has done a fine job of defensive rating, and you will find ratings for the various Mets here. David Pinto has Probabilistic Model of Range ratings at his Baseball Musings website, which are also very useful. For offence, we will use Tangotiger's Marcel projections found on the Hardball Times website.

The Mets' outfield is anchored by Carlos Beltran, merely the best centerfielder in the game, with power, plate discipline, speed and fielding ability aplenty. At his sides will be some combination of Moises Alou, Shawn Green, Endy Chavez, and Lastings Milledge. There is the potential for an interesting offence/defence and left/right platoon at both corner outfield positions. Alou figures to get most of the work in leftfield. He has aged remarkably well, posting remarkably consistent offensive numbers throughout his late 30s. He is now 40, and we will see how good he has been to Father Time. Chavez is a fine late inning defensive replacement and occasional starter against right-handed pitching. Old friend Shawn Green has slowed down, and no longer throws well, as a result of injuries. He can still hit though, and figures to get more time than the young 'do-ragged Milledge. Milledge might do well in a platoon/late inning defensive substitute role, at least to begin the season. Funny how what goes around, comes around for Shawn Green.

Marcel projects 574 plate appearances for Carlos Beltran, 560 for Green, 438 for Alou, 408 for Chavez and 292 for Milledge. My estimate is that the Beltran figure is a little low (let us say 600), the Green figure is very high (I expect Green will get about 450 plate appearances), Alou is about right, Chavez is somewhat high (325 for Endy) and Milledge is about right. With those changes, here is the statistical package for the outfield, with Dial defensive rating being 2006 figures in runs saved/150 games:

Player	Projected PA	Projected BA/OBP/SLUG	Dial
Beltran	600	.272/.362/.513	+10
Green	450	.275/.346/.451	-6
Alou	438	.291/.356/.513	-12
Chavez	325	.281/.328/.400	+25
Milledge	292	.273/.341/.435	none

Milledge was at least an average (if erratic) fielder, using other measures and by observation.

The infield

The Mets' starting infield is set: David Wright at third, Jose Reyes at short, Jose Valentin at second, Carlos Delgado at first with Paul Lo Duca catching. Wright and Reyes are among the most valuable young players in the game. Valentin had an excellent offensive and defensive season at age 37 in 2006; his backup in 2007 will likely be Damion Easley who can still hit but is a liability in the field. The amazing Julio Franco, who must have a ring before he retires, backs up Carlos Delgado. Ramon Castro will fill in for Paul Lo Duca as required, and bears more resemblance to Randy Knorr than Ken Huckaby. That is a good thing. Here are the 2007 Marcel projections and 2006 Dial ratings for the regular infielders:

Player	Projected PA	Projected BA/OBP/SLUG	Dial
Wright	590	.312/.384/.536	-10
Reyes	625	.293/.338/.453	+10
Valentin	434	.238/.314/.432	+21
Delgado	571	.273/.366/.534	+3
Lo Duca	525	.291/.338/.406	-5

The offence overall

The Mets scored 831 runs in 2006. If the projections are right, they should score 20-25 more in 2007. Somehow I do not think so. I am not really comfortable with the assessment for the older Mets, and have them marked down for 830 runs again in 2007.

The defence

The keys to the defence are the continued good health of Jose Valentin, and the maturation of Lastings Milledge. If Valentin and Milledge are in the lineup, the defence should be just fine. On the other hand, a right side of the diamond of Easley, Delgado and Green for any length of time will not be good news for particularly right-handed pitchers on the Mets. The prospect of ground ball singles in the 3-4 hole, and runners on first and third over and over again, could get discouraging.

The starting rotation

With Pedro Martinez out until at least the All-Star break after rotator cuff surgery, the Mets rotation lacks, to put it kindly, shape. Tom Glavine turns 41 before the season starts but is, I guess, the "ace" of the rotation. Too bad that it is 2007 instead of 1997, but the noticeable uptick in his K rate to a healthy 6.0 in 2006 suggests that he may have a season or three left in him. El Duque follows him, and can probably be counted on to remain an adequate pitcher in his (ahem) late 30s, provided his neck injury turns out to be minor. Behind these two are a number of possibilities: John Maine, Oliver Perez, Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber, Chan Ho Park, Dave Williams, and Aaron Heilman.

Maine seems likely to be a league average starter. Heilman, coming off surgery for right lateral epicondylitiis (a.k.a. tennis elbow), probably would be, if the club converted him to the rotation instead of using him in the bullpen. As for the others, "potential" is the operative word. Pelfrey was a first round pick in 2005, who first pitched pro ball in 2006. He looks very good, but has a grand total of 14 AA and AAA starts. Ideally, he would throw half a season in triple A. Humber is coming off Tommy John surgery and has even less higher minor league experience than Pelfrey. If it were my club, I would be wanting Humber in the pen and Heilman in the rotation in the not so distant future, but old habits die hard.

It is easy to imagine a positive scenario for the Mets pitching situation. The season begins with Glavine, Hernandez, Maine, Heilman and Park or Williams in the rotation, Oliver Perez in the bullpen as a long man, and Pelfrey in the rotation and Humber in the bullpen in triple A. By June, Perez and/or Pelfrey are ready to take the place of Park/Williams, and with luck, not long afterwards, Humber is ready to assume the set-up role. Anything Pedro Martinez contributes would then be gravy. As an "Air Pig" in the Chinese astrological system, I believe all of this can happen. For more literal people, the appropriate sign is the question mark.

The bullpen

The Mets have a good and deep bullpen. Billy Wagner is their closer, and a fine one he is. From the right side, Duaner Sanchez had an excellent year in 2006 ended prematurely by a shoulder separation sustained in a car accident while Guillermo Mota had an off-season. Heilman and Alay Soler will likely join them. Not so old friend Scott Schoeneweis and Pedro Feliciano join Wagner (Feliciano/Wagner, hmm...Light My Fire, Valkyries?) as the portsiders in the pen.

The modified Marcel pitching projections

I have taken some liberties with the Marcel pitching projections found in the Hardball Times; the modified projections are marked with an asterisk on the chart below. So, why already? I have reduced Glavine's ERA from 4.2 to 3.75 on the basis that it is consistent with his projected peripheral statistics and his proven ability to be better than average with runners on base. I have increased Maine's and Pelfrey's innings on the basis of the unusual extent of the opportunity for a young pitcher. I increased Maine's ERA from 4.2 to 4.7 on the basis that this is consistent with his peripheral statistics and history. I have reduced Park's innings on the basis that it shouldn't take the Mets more than 75 innings to figure out that they have better options. I have increased Heilman's innings, and projected modestly reduced performance numbers, on the basis that I expect to him make some starts over the season. Wagner's projected K/G and ERA, 9.3 and 3.20, might be a misprint. He's had 3 straight years with K/G in the 11-12.5 range and ERAs in the 1.5-2.25 range. There is no reason for that to change significantly. I have reduced Schoeneweis' ERA and improved his performance numbers to reflect his change to the weaker league and the fact that he will likely not start as he did in 2004.

Pitcher	IP	ERA	K/G	W/G	HR/G
Glavine	180	3.75*	5.3	3.0	0.9
Hernandez	153	4.82	7.8	3.2	1.2
Maine	150*	4.70*	6.9	3.6	1.4
Pelfrey	140*	4.50	6.7	3.5	0.9
Williams	106	5.05	5.9	3.3	1.4
Park	75*	5.15	6.5	3.7	1.1
Perez	127	5.07	8.6	4.6	1.4
Heilman	101*	4.10*	7.5*	3.3*	0.9*
Wagner	69	2.20*	11.5*	2.9	0.9
Sanchez	61	3.84	6.9	3.5	0.9
Feliciano	55	3.93	7.2	3.4	1.0
Schoeneweis	58	4.25*	6.4	3.8*	0.8
Humber	26	4.15	6.9	3.5	1.0

That totals 1300 innings with an ERA in the 4.3-4.35 range. Objectively, I estimate that the Mets will allow about 4.7 runs per game or 760 runs in the season. Subjectively, I expect Pelfrey to be much better than the projection, and allow the Mets to maintain last year's pace of about 4.5 runs allowed per game.

The totals

You read it here first. The Mets score 830 runs, allow 720 runs and win 92 games and the NL East title. Billy Wagner finally gets hot in the playoffs and they ride his arm (and those of Glavine and Pelfrey) to a World Series championship. But, don't bet on it, OK? I am pretty sure that the Braves will be better, and the Phils may be. The Marlins are probably a couple of years away.

Key players for the Mets this year: Jose Valentin, Lastings Milledge, Tom Glavine and Mike Pelfrey.

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