Texas also received Adam Eaton in the Adrian Gonzalez/Chris Young deal. Not that he makes the return that much better for the Rangers, since he threw 65 innings and immediately left as a free agent. I think you've nailed the big three in your article. Those are all awful trades. The other ones that come to mind are merely bad or were defendable at the time (although the Mulder one was defendable and wouldn't look so bad if not for injury).

In terms of net loss, another bad one that immediately springs to mind is Minaya dealing Sizemore, Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips for Colon. I can understand why he did it, but I always thought it was more likely Montreal would be moved than contracted, so I was shocked to seem them mortgage their future like that for one playoff push.

Larry Beinfest of the Marlins, who I consider to be a good GM, truly messed up when he sent Derrek Lee to the Cubs for Hee Seop Choi adn Mike Nannini.

Note that by coincidence the Cubs are beneficiaries of both - I know Jim Hendry has pulled off a stinker or two himself, but I will let somebody else handle that one.

The Yankees have one of the worst top picks ever in Brien Taylor, and recent free agent signings like Carl Pavano, Kei Igawa, Kyle Farnsworth, Roger Clemens (2007) and Jaret Wright certainly haven't worked out. Pitching : it's hard to buy or draft.

Epstein : J.D. Drew. Yes it's early and Drew has never been this bad before, but that much money for a below average Right fielder? The Gagne trade could turn out to be a low point for him, with Gabbard already providing decent major league results.

Terry Ryan : his strange passion for terrible veteran signings: Batista, Ponson, Rondell White, Ramon Ortiz,  and throw in letting Nick Punto stay on the team this year (.197/.285/.253) in a starting role without releasing or demoting him.

I've been fond of Pittsburgh getting Jason Bay and (one brilliant season of) Oliver Perez  in exchange for Brian Giles.  But while Giles power seems mostly gone, he's still been an OBP machine with the Padres.  I'm guessing Bay would never have put up the numbers he has if he'd been stuck in Petco Park, either.

"How about the worst moves of the best GMs, Beane, Schuerholz, Dombrowski and Shapiro?"

I wouldn't have Dombrowski as one of the best GMs. He drafts well and makes some decent trades, but also makes some insane free agency signings. (Percival and Vina turned out horribly, but even his great signings-Pudge and Ordonez were incredibly risky-26 million a year for guys who were very injury prone and were very likely to be declining anyway... they just happened to turn out very well for him.)  

"In terms of net loss, another bad one that immediately springs to mind is Minaya dealing Sizemore, Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips for Colon"

That's the worst one! What makes it even worse is that six months later, they dealt Colon for Rocky Biddle, Jeff Liefer, and El Duque. El Duque didn't pitch an inning with them. So, the trade became:

Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, and Cliff Lee for half a year of Colon, Rocky Biddle, and Jeff Liefer. I don't see how it can get much worse than that. It could end up up to be one of the worst trades in baseball history. (Although Texas combining to trade Chris Young, Travis Hafner, Adrian Gonzalez and Termell Sledge for Einer Diaz, one year of Adam Eaton, Otsuka, and a prospect is just an atrocious couple of moves.) 

Also, that convoluted 3-way trade that wound up with Beane sending away both Carlos Pena and Jeremy Bonderman and receiving Ted Lilly, John Ford-Griffin and Jason Arnold. We know that those latter 3 wound up with our own Blue Jays for assorted odds and sods, but in the end Beane did not get much out of those two at all.

Both were highly regarded prospects at the time, though Pena's recent success is surprising, given how many previous opportunities he's had.

I don't think Jim Duquette was the GM, wasn't it Steve Phillips? I believe Jim Duquette may have worked under Phillips, but I may be mistaken here.

I'm not as sold on Pelfrey. He has a great arm but the question has always been about his ability to gets swings and misses with a breaking ball. From what little I've seen and based on the numbers he's put up I'm not sure there's been much progression. He may still become really good, but I think the window is closing somewhat.

Ricciardi's drafts:

2002 - Russ Adams at 14th overall.  Mets take Kazmir at 15, A's take Swisher at 16 and Phillies take Cole Hamels at 17.  Presumably Adams was drafted for safety and signability, but what a classic example of penny wise and pound foolish.  For a few hundred thousand more, we could have had a really good player.  Imagine a rotation of Halladay, Burnett, Marcum, McGowan and Kazmir or Hamels.  WOW!  Swisher would be pretty nice in LF had we picked him.  Hopefully JP would not have traded Kazmir for Zambrano like Jim Duquette was stupid enough to do!

2005 - My personl favorite, Ricky Romero with 6th pick!!!  All the experts had us taking Tulowitski - all J.P. had to do was listen, but nooooooo.  He takes another lower risk, low ceiling type pitcher.  If they televised the MLB draft like the NBA one, I'm sure the crowd reaction would have been similar to when the Raptors overpicked Arraujo.  Oh yes, some players picked after Romero?  Troy Tulowitski at #7 by Colorado, Cameron Maybin a #10 by Detroit and Jay Bruce at #12 by Cincinnati.

There are others, but I am trying to limit myself to players picked right around Adams and Romero.  The Jays had a good 2007 draft in my opinion, but I doubt J.P. will be around when/if Arecibia, Ahrens or Cecil, Tolisano make the majors.

J.P's drafts overall, have been horrible.  2004 produced Adam Lind and Casey Janssen and 2003 produced Aaron Hill and Shaun Marcum.  That is the sum of any significant home grown talent on the Jays' 40 man roster at the moment, although I believe Travis Snider will be a stud once promoted.

Of course hindsight is 20/20 and these players still have many years to analyze before judgement coan be considered final, but drafting Adams and Romero seem like fantasticly horrible blunders.

"That's absurd."

How can you say that my comment around J.P’s drafts being horrible is absurd?  Have you done any research, or are you going off intuition?

Here are the players drafted during his tenure that have made the majors.  He has seen 15 of his picks from 2002 to 2004 promoted to the majors and none from his 2005 or 2006 drafts.  I’ll leave the 2007 draft out for now as it is far too soon to evaluate it for major league readiness.  It does look promising though.

Of the 15 players listed below, only David Bush, Aaron Hill, Shaun Marcum, Adam Lind, Casey Janssen and Jesse Litsch look like they will stick around and be average to above average major leaguers.  With Bush and Litsch, I’m likely being too generous as they both compare favorably (unfavorably?) to Josh Towers

2002

Russ Adams – 1st round, 14th overall

*David Bush – 2nd round, 55th overall

**Adam Peterson – 4th round, 116th overall

Jordan DeJong – 18th round, 536th overall

2003

Aaron Hill – 1st round, 13th overall

Josh Banks – 2nd round, 50th overall

Shaun Marcum – 3rd round, 80th overall

Jamie Vermilyea – 9th round, 260th overall

***Tom Mastny – 11th round, 320th overall

Ryan Roberts – 18th round, 530th overall

2004

*Zach Jackson – 1st round, 32nd overall

Curtis Thigpen – 2nd round, 57th overall

Adam Lind – 3rd round, 83rd overall

Casey Janssen – 4th round, 117th overall

Jessie Litsch – 24th round, 717th overall

*Part of trade to land Lyle Overbay

**Traded for Shea Hillenbrand

***Traded for John MacDonald

As for players drafted in 2002-2006 that have not been promoted to the majors yet, here are their organizational rankings in the 2007 Baseball America Prospect Handbook

2002

Nobody from this draft that has not already made the majors ranks top 30, so it is safe to say this draft was a total waste of time and money!

2003

Nobody from this draft that has not already made the majors ranks top 30, but we likely have two pretty decent players in Aaron Hill and Shaun Marcum. 

Hill’s career OPS+ is 90 and his top comparable through age 24 was Ken Oberkfell.  I think that is harsh, but I’m not prepared to accept Hill will be a star just yet.

Marcum is having a breakthrough year, but I’d like to see him do it again before I consider him a strong #3 or #2 type pitcher.  He already seems to be running into a wall, but in his defense, he is 9.1 innings short of his career high of 157 established in 2005 between Syracuse and New Hampshire.

2004

David Purcey – 1st round, 16th overall.  He ranks 9th in the organization and his 2007 season has been a disaster.  Still walks too many and will likely slip in the 2008 guide,

Ryan Klosterman – 5th round, 147th overall.  He ranks 14th in the organization and 2007 was also a disaster as evidenced by his .584 OPS at AA New Hampshire.  I bet he will not be top 30 next year.

Chip Cannon – 8th round, 237th overall.  He also regressed in a repeat year at AA New Hampshire.  He’s still an above average offensive player, but his all or nothing stats at age 26 in AA ball does not bode well for his future.  I suspect he will fall out of the top 30 as well.

Kyle Yates – 13th round, 387th overall.  He ranks 15th in the organization and he too regressed statistically in 2007, although not the freefall experienced by Purcey and Klosterman.  At least Purcey could blame injuries!

2005

Ricky Romero – 1st round, 6th overall.  He ranks 3rd in the organization.  Was 3-6 with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP at AA New Hampshire.  This is arguably the worst top 10 pick in 2005.

Brian Pettway – 3rd round, 86th overall.  He ranks 22nd in the organization.  Posted a .796 OPS in a repeat year at A Lansing.  Compares well against league OPS, but a 24 year old at A ball does not get me excited.  I see a 4th outfielder at best.

Ryan Patterson – 4th round, 116th overall.  He ranks 4th in the organization.  Posted a .754 OPS in 441 at-bats at AA New Hampshire as compared to a .749 OPS in 187 at-bats at the end of 2006 at AA New Hampshire.  Not sure what to make of this guy, especially since he missed some time to injury.  His 2008 season is likely make or break.

Eric Fowler – 5th round, 146th overall.  He ranks 11th in the organization.  Went 4-4 with a 7.20 ERA, 2.03 WHIP and an 21/18 K to BB ratio.  All dismal numbers – does not look like he’ll be appearing in the Rogers Centre without a ticket stub.  He’ll likely repeat AA at age 25.  Baseball America had him profiled as a back end starter or middle reliever before his 2007 bomb of a season.

Paul Phillips – 9th round, 266th overall.  He ranks 21st in the organization.  Went 4-1 as a reliever for A+ Dunedin, with a 6.33 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and a 25/10 K to BB ratio.  Pitched well at Lansing, but struggled at Dunedin.  Throws hard and projected as a 1st or 2nd round pick as an amateur before missing 2003 and 2004 due to labrun surgery.

Anthony Hatch – 13th round, 386th overall.  He ranks 17th in the organization.  Posted a .723 OPS at A+ Dunedin, which is slightly above league average.  Seems to profile as a utility guy.

2006

Travis Snider – 1st round, 14th overall.  He ranks 2nd in the organization and I think most Jays fans know about this guy.  Projects as a middle of the order hitter and has done nothing but pound the ball as a pro.  Posted a .902 OPS for A Lansing, which is insane in the Midwest League.  He should have been league MVP and he turns 20 in February!!! 

Brandon Magee – 4th round, 120th overall.  He ranks 7th in the organization.  Went 9-8 with a 3.90 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and a 76/54 K/BB ratio for A+ Dunedin.  Another guy who is a little old for his league.  Another guy who likely projects as a #3 starter at best and more likely a back end guy or middle reliever.

Brian Jeroloman – 6th round, 180th overall.  He ranks 30th in the organization.  Solid defensive catcher, drew 85 walks and had a .759 OPS thanks to all those walks.  Guys who don’t hit for average or power but have high walk rates are virtually guaranteed to be unable to replicate that in the majors – see “Russ Adams” for reference.  Backup catcher perhaps?

Chase Lirette – 16th round, 480th overall.  He ranks 29th in the organization and posted a 5-5 record with a 4.42 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and a 41/19 K/BB ratio for A Lansing.

Kyle Ginley – 17th round, 510th overall.  He ranks 19th in the organization and posted a 7-6 record with a 4.72 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and a 129/41 K/BB ratio for A Lansing.  Not exciting me here either!

Graham Godfrey – 34th round, 1,020th overall.  He ranks 18th in the organization and posted a 6-7 record with a 3.97 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and a 74/36 K/BB ratio for A Lansing.  The 2007 season was his first as a pro and he is 22 already.  Throws hard and I’m curious to see what he does next season.

To sum up, I look at our depth and I really do not see how our drafts can be evaluated as anything other than about a C- or a D.

Since 2002, our minor league talent rankings have gone as follows:

2002 – 13th

2003 – 6th

2004 – 8th

2005 – 15th

2006 – 25th

As the talent left behind by the Gord Ash administration made the majors or fizzled out, the J.P. Ricciardi drafts replaced them and the results speak for themselves in my opinion.

I don’t feel like doing this for the other A.L. East teams, but a quick scan tells me that New York, Boston and Tampa Bay have all done a much better job of acquiring talent, even if we exclude the Japanese imports.