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It's time to play.


Yesterday Dave the Rook reminded me that I had asserted prior ownership to this whole snakes and ladders concept. I don't have particularly fond memories of the game, by the way - but now it reminds me of my beloved Mott the Hoople:

In '72 we were born to lose
Slipped down snakes into yesterday's news
I was just about to quit...

Anyway. Every year some teams improve by 10 games (climbing the Ladder!) and some teams decline by 10 games (slipping down the snakes.) It's usually around four teams a year in each group. Last season six teams climbed the ladders, and only three slipped down the snakes.

Can we see this coming? Well, we can try and we do. Last year's little contest produced a seven-way tie, as that's how many Bauxites identified four teams whose fortunes in 2007 would change dramatically. Alas, I didn't include a tie-breaker. This year, I will.

Anyway, let's give it up for Pistol, CeeBee, Hollywood Hartman, Mike Green, Nick, toperkris, anders. Everyone who played got at least one right, and I can stop mocking my class of 2005 comrade. Rob, ya done better than me!

Last year, I thought it would be fun to track just how often each team has played our little game over the past decade, and when I discovered the hectic roller coaster ride that has been the path of the Detroit Tigers, I automatically included them in my 2007 group. Oops.

Anyway, here is our summary of the last decade:

2007
ladders (6) - Chicago Cubs (+19), Cleveland (+18), Arizona (+14), Colorado (+13), Boston (+10), Seattle (+10)
snakes (3) - Chicago White Sox (-18), Minnesota (-17), Oakland (-17)

2006
ladders (4) - Detroit (+24), L.A. Dodgers (+17), N.Y. Mets (+14), Minnesota (+13)
snakes (5) - St. Louis (-17), Cleveland (-15), Chicago Cubs (-13), Atlanta (-11), Washington (-10)

2005
ladders (7) - Arizona (+26), Chicago White Sox (+16), Milwaukee (+14), Washington (+14), Cleveland (+13), Toronto (+13), N.Y. Mets (+12)
snakes (4) - Texas (-10), Chicago Cubs (-10), San Francisco (-16), L.A. Dodgers (-22)

2004
ladders (6) - Detroit (+29), San Diego (+23), St. Louis (+20), Texas (+18), Anaheim (+15), Cleveland (+12)
snakes (5) - Montreal (-16), Toronto (-19), Kansas City (-25), Seattle (-30), Arizona (-33)

2003
ladders (4) - Kansas City (+21), Chicago Cubs (+21), Milwaukee (+12), Florida (+12)
snakes (4) - Detroit (-12), St. Louis (-12), Arizona (-14), Anaheim (-22)

2002
ladders (6) - Anaheim (+24), Montreal (+15), Atlanta (+13), Cincinnati (+12), Boston (+11), Pittsburgh (+10)
snakes (6) - Detroit (-11), Milwaukee (-12), San Diego (-13), Cleveland (-17), Chicago Cubs (-21), Seattle (-23)

2001
ladders (6) - Seattle (+25), Chicago Cubs (+23), Houston (+21), Philadelphia (+21), Minnesota (+16), Oakland (+11)
snakes (6) - Baltimore (-11), Chicago White Sox (-12), Kansas City (-12), N.Y. Mets (-12), Detroit (-13), Cincinnati (-19)

2000
ladders (9) - Chicago White Sox (+20), St. Louis (+20), Florida (+15), Kansas City (+13), Anaheim (+12), Seattle (+12), San Francisco (+11), Colorado (+10), Detroit (+10)
snakes (6) - N.Y. Yankees (-11), Cincinnati (-11), Philadelphia (-12), Arizona (-15), Texas (-24), Houston (-25)

1999
ladders (4) - Arizona (+35), Cincinnati (+19), Oakland (+13), Florida (+10)
snakes (4) - Anaheim (-15), N.Y. Yankees (-16), Chicago Cubs (-23), San Diego (-24),

1998
ladders (8) - Chicago Cubs (+22), San Diego (+22), N.Y, Yankees (+18), Houston (+18), Boston (+14), Toronto (+12), Texas (+11), St. Louis (+10)
snakes (6) - Pittsburgh (-10), Montreal (-13), Detroit (-14), Seattle (-14), Baltimore (-19), Florida (-38)


The bolded teams, of course, are your World Series champions. While it seems reasonable enough to find six teams winning it all who had improved by 10+ games that season, it's somewhat startling that three of the last ten world series champions were among that season's handful of teams who declined by ten or more games.

Team              ladders!    snakes!    Seasons

Chicago Cubs 4 4 8
Detroit 3 4 7
Arizona 3 3 6
Seattle 3 3 6
LA Angels 3 2 5
St. Louis 3 2 5
Montreal/Washington 2 3 5
Cleveland 3 2 5
San Diego 2 2 4
Texas 2 2 4
Cincinnati 2 2 4
Kansas City 2 2 4
Milwaukee 2 2 4
Chicago White Sox 2 2 4
Florida 2 1 3
NY Mets 2 1 3
Houston 2 1 3
Minnesota 2 1 3
Oakland 2 1 3
Toronto 2 1 3
NY Yankees 1 2 3
Boston 3 0 3
San Francisco 1 1 2
Baltimore 0 2 2
Atlanta 1 1 2
LA Dodgers 1 1 2
Philadelphia 1 1 2
Pittsburgh 1 1 2
Colorado 2 0 2
Tampa Bay 0 0 0

The Devil Rays, of course, remain the perfect model of consistency over the past ten years. Age cannot wither, nor custom stale, their infinite ineptitude.

Anyway - history tells us that each year at least four teams will climb the ladder and another four will slide down the snake.  Tell me who. and we need a tie-breaker. So which team will make the biggest move (up, down, I don't care.)

Hmm. There's a real good chance that won't settle anything, although it will be our first option. We'll have a second tie-breaker! How many games will be saved by B.J. Ryan?

That should do the trick.

Snakes and Ladders 2008 | 33 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
mathesond - Monday, March 24 2008 @ 08:10 AM EDT (#181349) #
Most improved: Cleveland, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Arizona  

Least improved: St. Louis, Atlanta, Colorado  

Biggest mover: Reds

Ryan saves: 31

Mike Green - Monday, March 24 2008 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#181351) #
Four of each?  Yikes.  I have the Rays improving 19 games, and I seriously doubt that there will be 3 other ladders.

ladders: Tampa, Kansas City, Cubs and Dodgers (the last two are real longshots)
snakes: Cardinals, Seattle, Florida and Angels (the last two are real longshots)

Greatest Move: Rays +19
Ryan's save total: 10 (although he is effective in August and September)

ChicagoJaysFan - Monday, March 24 2008 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#181353) #
ladders: Tampa, Yankees, Brewers, Braves (I have trouble picking anyone that is really going to improve by 10 this year though)
snakes: Cardinals, Indians, Phillies, Padres.  Not that I think the Indians, Phillies, and Padres are bad, I jus think they've got room to drop (the Indians would still win 86 games if they do 10 games worse).

Biggest mover: Indians

Ryan's saves: 20

youngid - Monday, March 24 2008 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#181355) #
ladders:   Tampa Bay, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee, LA Dodgers
snakes:  Detroit, Texas, St. Louis, Colorado

Detroit's pitching is very shaky for a team that's supposed to contend

Magpie - Monday, March 24 2008 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#181357) #
Me too

ladders: Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Texas
snakes: St Louis, Seattle, Arizona, B----n R-d S-x

Biggest Mover - Seattle, in the direction of Down (-13)

Magpie - Monday, March 24 2008 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#181358) #
Second tie-breaker: Ryan with 18 saves
Sheldon - Monday, March 24 2008 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#181360) #
ladders
Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, LA Dodgers

snakes
Seattle, Phillies, Chicago White Sox, Washington

Biggest Mover - Chicago White Sox - Down

BJ Ryan gets 24 saves.
Zao - Monday, March 24 2008 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#181361) #

ladders: Tampa, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Oakland.

snakes: Colorado, Seattle, Boston, San Diego

 

Biggest mover: Tampa Bay

Saves: 17

electric carrot - Monday, March 24 2008 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#181366) #
snakes:
Oakland, Minnesota, Houston, Baltimore

ladders:
Texas, Tampa, Toronto, Cincinnati

Biggest mover: Cincinnati +12

Ryan Saves: 28

King Ryan - Monday, March 24 2008 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#181367) #
snakes: Seattle, Colorado, Atlanta

ladders: Tampa Bay, Detroit, Mets, Cincinnati

Biggest Mover: Cincinnati

Ryan Saves: 34

Mick in Ithaca - Monday, March 24 2008 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#181368) #
snakes: Cubs, Diamondbacks, Yankees, Mariners

ladders: Rays, Jays, Braves, Reds

Biggest Mover: Rays

Ryan: 22 Saves

Zach - Monday, March 24 2008 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#181369) #
ladders: Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Milwaukee, Cincinnati

snakes: Boston, Seattle, New York Mets, St. Louis

Biggest move: Seattle

Ryan gets 22 saves.
AWeb - Monday, March 24 2008 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#181370) #
snakes : Seattle, Boston, Philadelphia, Arizona

ladders: Tampa Bay, Texas, Cincinnati, Milwaukee

Tampa Bay biggest move, by 18 games

Ryan with 17 Saves
Clifford - Monday, March 24 2008 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#181372) #

ladders: Phillies, Braves, Dodgers, Jays

snakes: Florida, Baltimore, Minnie, Colorado

Florida declines by 18 (maybe more)

Ryan still throws across his body and gets 5 saves before the DL beckons

 

bgock - Monday, March 24 2008 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#181374) #
Scott Rolen out indefinitely with a broken finger
peiscooter - Monday, March 24 2008 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#181375) #

ladders:  Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, ChiCubs, Dodgers.

snakes:  Baltimore, Oakland, Colorado, St. Louis.

Tallest Ladder:  Tampa Bay with +14.

B. J. Ryan saves:  9.

ANationalAcrobat - Monday, March 24 2008 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#181378) #
snakes: Seattle, Colorado, St-Louis, Cleveland

ladders: Cincinnati, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, Tampa

Biggest mover: Rays, up

Ryan's save total: 20
3RunHomer - Monday, March 24 2008 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#181381) #
ladders: Tampa, Kansas City, Cubs, Toronto
snakes: Baltimore, Yankees, San Francisco, St Louis

Biggest Move: Yankees -19
Ryan's save total: 21
gabrielthursday - Monday, March 24 2008 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#181383) #
ladders: Rays, Reds, Jays, Royals

snakes: Mariners, Diamondbacks, Angels, Cardinals

Biggest Move: Rays +22

BJ: 32 Saves

ChicagoJaysFan - Monday, March 24 2008 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#181386) #
At a quick glance, I see that the Yankees and the A's have made appearances on some peoples list as snakes and on others as ladders.  Interesting.

For what it's worth, the Over/Unders article didn't predict much of a change for either (-.5 for NYY and -2.5 for OAK).
kinguy - Monday, March 24 2008 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#181387) #
ladders:  Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Texas

snakes:  Washington, Angels, St. Louis, Detroit

Biggest Jump:  Tampa Bay +13

BJ Ryan saves:  9
Anders - Monday, March 24 2008 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#181391) #
ladders Tampa, Cincy
snakes: Bal'more, Seattle, San Diego
Biggest mover: Tampa


Nick - Monday, March 24 2008 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#181393) #
ladders: Tampa Bay, Chicago White Sox, Texas, Cincinnati,
snakes: Baltimore, Seattle, Minnesota, San Francisco

Biggest Move: Tampa

BJ Ryan saves: 21

Alex Obal - Tuesday, March 25 2008 @ 12:09 AM EDT (#181396) #
ladders: Colorado, Tampa Bay, local jackass Ozzie Williams, Cincinnati
snakes: Baltimore, Seattle, Washington, Houston

Mudie - Tuesday, March 25 2008 @ 12:34 AM EDT (#181398) #

up the ladders: Rays, White sox, Reds

down the snakes: Oakland, Padres, Cardinals

biggest mover: Reds + 11

BJ save counter: 28

Alex Obal - Tuesday, March 25 2008 @ 12:42 AM EDT (#181401) #
Oh. Right. The Biggest Ladder will belong to Tampa Bay.

BJ Ryan: 33 saves

92-93 - Tuesday, March 25 2008 @ 02:51 AM EDT (#181406) #
ladders : Toronto, Oakland, New York (NL), Los Angeles (NL)
snakes : San Fransisco, Seattle, Baltimore, Colorado

Biggest ladder = Toronto +14

BJ Ryan : 24 saves
John Northey - Tuesday, March 25 2008 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#181421) #
So, 4 up and 4 down eh?
Going up...
Tampa Bay (anyone not picking them?)
Kansas City
Houston - after my preview of them I gotta pick them
Atlanta - sadly, back to division winners

Going down...
Baltimore - 105 losses I'm betting on
Cleveland - down to low 80's
Arizona - smoke and mirrors only go so far
St Louis - LaRussa is going down!

Biggest move - I'll go with St Louis collapsing completely (over 100 losses) - hey, play a pitcher in CF while the manager gets drunk and that is what you deserve.

Biggest growth is going to Kansas City - something in my gut tells me this.

BJ Ryan? I'll go with 20 saves as the Jays become one of the few teams to get two 20 save pitchers in the same season.
zeppelinkm - Wednesday, March 26 2008 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#181511) #

Up: Tampa Bay,  Cincinnati, LA Dodgers, Kansas City

Down: St Louis, San Diego, Oakland, Cleveland

Biggest Mover: The Ray's

Ryan's saves:  I'll say 10. I'm not optimistic he'll be closing games before the all star game. and when he does come back, I really hope they don't automatically give him the closers job back. He has to establish that he's still got it and I think by the time that happens the season will be will on its way. I do think he'll be an important contributor, when he is back in action at full strength.

#2JBrumfield - Monday, March 31 2008 @ 02:35 AM EDT (#181733) #

ladders - Mets, Reds, Rays, Jays

snakes - A's, Orioles, Phillies, Rockies

Biggest Mover - Jays +12

Ryan - 19 Saves

seeyou - Monday, March 31 2008 @ 04:35 AM EDT (#181734) #
ladders: Reds, Rays, Royals, Nationals

snakes: Cardinals, Orioles, Athletics

Biggest Mover: Royals +16

Ryan's saves: 22

King Ryan - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 12:09 AM EDT (#192956) #
ALRIGHT THEN....

King Ryan - Monday, March 24 2008 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#181367) #
snakes
: Seattle, Colorado, Atlanta


Seattle (-27) That was an easy one! Although I did not think they would be THAT bad. 

Colorado (-16) But still finished closer to postseason than us. : - (

Atlanta (-12)  I was worried about this one for a bit, but a 9-20 August saved the day.

So I correctly picked 3 of the 7 snakes.  The other snakes were:

San Diego (-26) Wow did I not see that coming.  Thought for sure the Giants would be the dregs of this division.

Cleveland (-15), who would have thought that Cliff Lee would have the season he did, and Sabathia the season he did, and yet the Indians would be .500?

Detroit (-14), the whole AL Central is completely wrong from the way it was supposed to be.

Washington (-14) Because 73 wins wasn't lousy enough. Set a record for all time low attendance in a new ballpark, but at least they aren't in Montreal!


ladders
: Tampa Bay, Detroit, Mets, Cincinnati

Tampa Bay (+31 [!])  The inverse of Seatlle, they were the easy choice, but I didn't think they'd be THAT good.

Detroit (-14) See above.

Mets (+1) Bah.

Cincinnati (+2) Not really sure what I saw in them.

So I got 1 of the 5 ladders.  The others were:

Chicago White Sox (+16) You know, I look at their team and I'm still not sure how they do it.

Houston (+13)  This is the Ladder team that surprised me the most.  I thought they would just be dreadful.  They were old, had no pitching and no depth.  I know who one of my snakes will be next year...

Florida (+13) I remember coming close to picking them, but I was just so sure about Cincinnati for some reason.

Chicago Cubs (+12) Dominant team this year.

Biggest Mover: Cincinnati

Oops.

Ryan Saves: 34

BJ Ryan (32) Hey that was a pretty good guess.   Thought he might surpass that total but then he completely lost his command

So yeah, how did you guys do?
King Ryan - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 12:19 AM EDT (#192957) #
Cheat sheet...
Snakes and Ladders 2008 | 33 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.