Come on! The Blue Jays are undefeated when Buck Coats is in the starting lineup.
Well, youneverknow....
There's not all that much I miss about the Elias Baseball Analyst, but there are one or two things. They used to a nice chart for each team showing the team's W-L record for every player at every spot in the starting lineup, both offensively and defensively. Some teams still provide that information, updated each day in the Daily Game Notes. Texas and Toronto, alas, are not among them. So I had to do all of this myself.
It strikes me that this should be quite interesting for the Blue Jays, who haven't exactly been running the same lineup out there on a regular basis. Lyle Overbay is the only thing resembling an automatic every day player - he's been at first base for almost 94% of the team's games. Scott Rolen has been at third base for just over three quarters (76%) of the team's games. The rest has been pretty fluid as they say, or ought to. Rios in RF, Wells in CF, Stairs at DH, Barajas at C each appears more than half the time, less than two-thirds.
Let's begin with the raw W-L numbers for each player, when he's in the starting lineup.
Now we'll break it down by position:
I'm thinking you might have some questions about Vernon Wells and David Eckstein. The team has a better record when they're not in the lineup, and this is despite the fact that the men who take their places in the lineup are inevitably weaker hitters. The Jays are 22-33 with Eckstein at short, 21-15 when Scutaro plays there, and 11-7 when John McDonald gets the starts.
What do the raw defensive numbers suggest? Hard to tell. McDonald has the best raw Range Factor (4.32), while Scutaro and Eckstein are more or less a wash (4.12 and 4.04) respectively.) Scutaro actually has the best Zone Rating (.861) by a considerable margin (McDonald is .814, Eckstein is .804).
McDonald hasn't been catching a break by working Roy Halladay games. Which probably has a lot to do with why the Blue Jays are allowing more runs per game when McDonald starts at short than when Eckstein or Scutaro start there. McDonald has started 6 games behind A.J. Burnett (1 at 3b) and 5 behind Jesse Litsch (1 at 3b.) He's started behind Halladay and Marcum three times apiece, twice behind Purcey, and once behind Richmond, and Parrish. (He's missed all of Dustin McGowan's starts.)
Why do we care how many home runs are being hit? Because there's nothing a shortstop can do about them. The Jays pitchers haven't allowed nearly as many home runs when Scutaro is at short as they have when Eckstein is out there. And John McDonald has seen balls go flying into the seats at an even higher rate.
The raw numbers in centre field suggest that Alex Rios has surpassed Vernon Wells as a defensive centre fielder - Rios has a big edge in Range Factor (2.74 to 2.14), and has a better Zone Rating as well (.918 to .868) When Wells is out, most of the playing time goes to Brad Wilkerson. That's hardly an offensive upgrade - in 2008, Wells has been a better hitter than Rios and a much better hitter than Wilkerson. Do the Jays have a better record when Wells is out because of the defensive upgrade?
Well, who the hell knows. We do know this - they've given up a few more runs when Rios plays centre. Home runs have nothing to do with this time:
I'm not sure why I even bother trying to make sense of this team...
Well, youneverknow....
There's not all that much I miss about the Elias Baseball Analyst, but there are one or two things. They used to a nice chart for each team showing the team's W-L record for every player at every spot in the starting lineup, both offensively and defensively. Some teams still provide that information, updated each day in the Daily Game Notes. Texas and Toronto, alas, are not among them. So I had to do all of this myself.
It strikes me that this should be quite interesting for the Blue Jays, who haven't exactly been running the same lineup out there on a regular basis. Lyle Overbay is the only thing resembling an automatic every day player - he's been at first base for almost 94% of the team's games. Scott Rolen has been at third base for just over three quarters (76%) of the team's games. The rest has been pretty fluid as they say, or ought to. Rios in RF, Wells in CF, Stairs at DH, Barajas at C each appears more than half the time, less than two-thirds.
Let's begin with the raw W-L numbers for each player, when he's in the starting lineup.
Player W L Pct
Parrish 4 0 1.000
Coats 1 0 1.000
Burnett 14 10 .583
McDonald 12 9 .571
Wilkerson 26 20 .565
Halladay 12 10 .545
Barajas 34 29 .540
Lind 21 18 .538
Inglett 26 23 .531
Hill 28 25 .528
Rolen 44 40 .524
Rios 53 50 .515
Stairs 38 38 .500
Stewart 22 22 .500
Velandia 1 1 .500
Scutaro 44 45 .494
Overbay 51 53 .490
Wells 29 34 .460
Marcum 8 10 .444
Thomas 7 9 .438
Zaun 23 30 .434
McGowan 8 11 .421
Litsch 8 11 .421
Eckstein 26 36 .419
Mench 6 14 .300
Purcey 1 3 .250
Thigpen 0 1 .000
Diaz 0 1 .000
Richmond 0 1 .000
Now we'll break it down by position:
C 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf dh p TOTALAnd now we'll break it down by spot in the batting order:
W L W L W L W L W L W L W L W L W L W L W L
Zaun 23 28 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0 2 - - 23 30
Barajas 32 27 1 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - 1 0 - - 34 29
Thigpen 0 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0 1
Overbay - - 51 53 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 51 53
Stewart - - - - - - - - - - 18 18 - - - - 4 4 - - 22 22
Wilkerson - - 1 1 - - - - - - 7 3 1 1 17 15 - - - - 26 20
Hill - - - - 28 25 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 28 25
Rolen - - - - - - 44 40 - - - - - - - - - - - - 44 40
Eckstein - - - - 0 1 - - 22 33 - - - - - - 4 2 - - 26 36
Wells - - - - - - - - - - - - 29 34 - - - - - - 29 34
Rios - - - - - - - - - - - - 24 21 29 29 - - - - 53 50
Stairs - - - - - - - - - - 4 4 - - 2 4 32 29 - - 38 37
Scutaro - - 2 0 11 16 8 12 21 15 1 2 - - - - 1 0 - - 44 45
Inglett - - - - 16 13 2 3 - - 2 2 1 0 4 5 1 0 - - 26 23
Lind - - - - - - - - - - 20 18 - - - - 1 0 - - 21 18
Mench - - - - - - - - - - 2 9 - - 3 3 1 2 - - 6 14
McDonald - - - - - - 1 1 11 8 - - - - - - - - - - 12 9
Thomas - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 7 9 - - 7 9
Velandia - - - - 0 1 - - 1 0 - - - - - - - - - - 1 1
Coats - - - - - - - - - - 1 0 - - - - - - - - 1 0
Diaz - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0 1 - - 0 1
Burnett - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 14 10 14 10
Halladay - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 12 10 12 10
McGowan - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 8 11 8 11
Marcum - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 8 10 8 10
Litsch - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 8 11 8 11
Parrish - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 4 0 4 0
Purcey - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1 3 1 3
Richmond - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0 1 0 1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
W L W L W L W L W L W L W L W L W L W L
Zaun - - - - - - - - - - - - 5 6 12 17 6 7 23 30
Barajas - - - - - - 2 0 8 7 4 9 8 8 9 4 3 1 34 29
Thigpen - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0 1 0 1
Overbay - - 1 2 2 1 6 6 9 7 18 21 13 14 2 2 - - 51 53
Stewart 11 7 3 7 - - - - 1 1 4 3 3 3 0 1 - - 22 22
Wilkerson 6 4 0 1 - - - - 1 1 1 0 5 6 9 7 4 1 26 20
Hill - - 19 13 1 3 - - 0 1 2 2 6 6 - - - - 28 25
Rolen - - - - 9 12 15 11 0 2 16 9 3 5 1 1 - - 44 40
Eckstein 13 19 7 3 - - - - - - - - - - 0 5 6 9 26 36
Wells - - - - 0 1 24 29 5 4 - - - - - - - - 29 34
Rios 10 10 - - 43 38 0 1 - - 0 1 - - - - - - 53 50
Stairs - - 5 6 0 1 8 8 19 18 6 5 - - - - - - 38 38
Scutaro 3 7 14 19 - - - - - - 3 0 6 4 11 9 7 6 44 45
Inglett 12 9 6 5 - - - - - - - - - - 3 0 5 9 26 23
Lind - - - - - - - - 1 2 0 2 6 1 7 6 7 7 21 18
Mench - - - - - - 0 1 4 4 1 4 0 3 1 2 - - 6 14
McDonald - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0 1 12 8 12 9
Thomas - - - - - - - - 7 9 - - - - - - - - 7 9
Velandia - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1 1 1 1
Coats - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1 0 1 0
Diaz - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0 1 - - 0 1
Pitchers - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 3 6 3 6
I'm thinking you might have some questions about Vernon Wells and David Eckstein. The team has a better record when they're not in the lineup, and this is despite the fact that the men who take their places in the lineup are inevitably weaker hitters. The Jays are 22-33 with Eckstein at short, 21-15 when Scutaro plays there, and 11-7 when John McDonald gets the starts.
What do the raw defensive numbers suggest? Hard to tell. McDonald has the best raw Range Factor (4.32), while Scutaro and Eckstein are more or less a wash (4.12 and 4.04) respectively.) Scutaro actually has the best Zone Rating (.861) by a considerable margin (McDonald is .814, Eckstein is .804).
McDonald hasn't been catching a break by working Roy Halladay games. Which probably has a lot to do with why the Blue Jays are allowing more runs per game when McDonald starts at short than when Eckstein or Scutaro start there. McDonald has started 6 games behind A.J. Burnett (1 at 3b) and 5 behind Jesse Litsch (1 at 3b.) He's started behind Halladay and Marcum three times apiece, twice behind Purcey, and once behind Richmond, and Parrish. (He's missed all of Dustin McGowan's starts.)
Player Innings Hits Runs ER HR H/9 R/9 Er/9 HR/9
McDonald 184 178 90 79 23 3.86 8.71 4.40 1.13
Eckstein 474.2 461 217 203 47 3.85 8.74 4.11 0.89
Scutaro 321.1 283 139 130 26 3.64 7.93 3.89 0.73
Velandia 10 3 0 0 0 0.00 2.70 0.00 0.00
Inglett 2 2 0 0 0 0.00 9.00 0.00 0.00
TOTAL 992 927 446 412 96 3.74 8.41 4.05 0.87
Why do we care how many home runs are being hit? Because there's nothing a shortstop can do about them. The Jays pitchers haven't allowed nearly as many home runs when Scutaro is at short as they have when Eckstein is out there. And John McDonald has seen balls go flying into the seats at an even higher rate.
The raw numbers in centre field suggest that Alex Rios has surpassed Vernon Wells as a defensive centre fielder - Rios has a big edge in Range Factor (2.74 to 2.14), and has a better Zone Rating as well (.918 to .868) When Wells is out, most of the playing time goes to Brad Wilkerson. That's hardly an offensive upgrade - in 2008, Wells has been a better hitter than Rios and a much better hitter than Wilkerson. Do the Jays have a better record when Wells is out because of the defensive upgrade?
Well, who the hell knows. We do know this - they've given up a few more runs when Rios plays centre. Home runs have nothing to do with this time:
Player Innings Hits Runs ER HR H/9 R/9 Er/9 HR/9
Wells 567 527 253 232 55 3.68 8.37 4.02 0.87
Rios 398 381 183 175 38 3.96 8.62 4.14 0.86
Wilkerson 20 15 10 5 3 2.25 6.75 4.50 1.35
Inglett 7 4 0 0 0 0.00 5.14 0.00 0.00
TOTAL 992 927 446 412 96 3.74 8.41 4.05 0.87
I'm not sure why I even bother trying to make sense of this team...
