Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
It must be Data Table time.

As we all remember, the 2008 Blue Jays had a below average offense.

That's putting it kindly. They scored a measly 714 runs - only three AL teams scored fewer and none of them played in the AL East. An average AL team scored 775 runs. Behold...


TOTAL    AB   R    H   TB   2B 3B  HR RBI  BB   SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP  BAVG  OBP  SLG  OPS   RC  RC/27
Texas    5728 901 1619 2647 376 35 194 867 595 1207  81 25 37 54 63 117  .283 .354 .462 .816 944  5.73
Boston    5596 845 1565 2503 353 33 173 807 646 1068 120 35 28 62  70 147  .280 .358 .447 .805  903  5.59
Minnesota    5641 829 1572 2301 298 49 111 791 529  979 102 42 52 72  36 142  .279 .340 .408 .748  779  4.74
Detroit    5641 821 1529 2504 293 41 200 780 572 1076  63 31 30 44  44 144  .271 .340 .444 .784  838  5.11
Chicago Sox  5553 811 1458 2485 296 13 235 785 540 1016  67 34 28 47  63 157  .263 .332 .448 .780  802  4.91
Cleveland    5543 805 1455 2351 339 22 171 772 560 1213  77 29 43 49 103 123  .262 .339 .424 .763  803  4.89
NY Yankees   5572 789 1512 2381 289 20 180 758 535 1015 118 39 31 39  80 149  .271 .342 .427 .769  805  4.97
Baltimore    5559 782 1486 2384 322 30 172 750 533  990  81 37 27 48  42 111  .267 .333 .429 .762  793  4.87
AL AVERAGE   5580 775 1493 2344 306 29 162 738 537 1060  94 35 34 49  58 136  .267 .335 .420 .755  781  4.78
Tampa Bay    5541 774 1443 2341 284 37 180 735 626 1224 142 50 23 52  68 111  .260 .340 .422 .762  812  4.96
LA Angels    5540 765 1486 2287 274 25 159 721 481  987 129 48 32 50  52 140  .268 .330 .413 .743  743  4.58
Toronto    5503 714 1453 2198 303 32 126 681 521  938  80 27 48 56  59 150  .264 .331 .399 .731  722  4.43
Kansas City  5608 691 1507 2226 303 28 120 650 392 1005  79 38 32 36  50 144  .269 .320 .397 .717  687  4.20
Seattle    5643 671 1498 2195 285 20 124 631 417 890  90 32 36 42  38 137  .265 .318 .389 .707  683  4.12
Oakland    5451 646 1318 2009 270 23 125 610 574 1226  88 21 30 35  48 126  .242 .318 .369 .686  647  3.93
The Blue Jays came by their ineptitude the old-fashioned way - they earned it. They received below-average production from all nine offensive positions, a feat matched only by the utterly pathetic hitters who work for the Oakland A's, whose offense was as far behind Toronto's as the Jays were behind the AL average.

It should be noted that the saga of the 2008 Jays offense is a two-part story. In the first 74 games, they scored 297 runs. That projects to a total of just 650 runs over the course of the season - almost as bad as (gasp! shudder!) Oakland. John Gibbons and Gary Denbo walked the plank at that point. Cito Gaston and Gene Tenace took over, Adam Lind was summoned to put Brad Wilkerson (and all the rest of his) out of our collective misery, and PRESTO! Over the last 88 games, the Jays scored 417 runs.

How good is that? Consider this, me hearties - had they scored like that all year long, they would have plated 867 runs. Only one team in the AL scored more. The Jays did this despite being without their best hitter in 2008 (Vernon Wells) for 27 of those 88 games. (Wells missed an identical stretch of games in the season's first half as well.)

Gaston, as everyone knows, is a former hitting coach. He also has two former ML hitting coaches on his staff. This didn't hurt, but it was more likely his managerial approaches that helped turn the offense around. It was pretty simple - they stopped giving away baserunners by hitting into double plays and getting thrown out stealing. Through June 20, the day of the managerial change, Jays had grounded into a grisly 84 double plays in those first 74 games. Had they continued at that pace, they would have hit into 183 of the accursed things and comfortably established a new major league record for GDPs. Happily, that record survives, and you'll be keen to know its 174 and it was set by the 1990 Boston Red Sox, who - surprise, surprise - were a largely RH hitting team who didn't strike out a whole lot.

Anyway, Toronto grounded into just 66 DPs in the 88 games after Gaston took over - that's one of the better rates at staying out the DP in the entire league. It works out to about 121 GDPs over a full season.

Okay, let's go round the league by position and see where there's room for improvement. (Hint - "everywhere!")

CATCHER    AB   R   H    TB  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB   SO SB CS SH SF HBP GDP  BAVG  OBP   SLG   OPS  RC  RC/27
Minnesota    629 108  206  275  36  3   9  96  84   56  1  1  1 11   2  25  .328 .402  .437  .839  110  6.42
Cleveland    595  93  165  274  43  0  22  86  56  167  0  0  4  3  15  16  .277 .353  .461  .813   95  5.56
Texas    598  90  165  254  41  0  16  91  55  157  2  5  4  5   9   6  .276 .343  .425  .768   88  5.10
Chicago Sox  653  73  182  263  34  1  15  65  24   87  1  0  4  5   9  14  .279 .311  .403  .714   79  4.19
LA Angels    513  74  117  223  17  1  29  92  66  160  9  5 10 10   8   5  .228 .320  .435  .755   76  4.63
Tampa Bay    594  65  164  237  34  0  13  77  47   82  0  4  5  5   3  19  .276 .330  .399  .729   73  4.25
AL AVERAGE   586  70  151  230  32  1  15  73  50  117  3  2  4  5   8  16  .257 .321  .392  .714   72  4.16
Detroit    581  61  147  225  24  6  14  65  49  126  8  2  7  5   5  11  .253 .314  .387  .701   71  4.08
Toronto    580  71  142  224  34  0  16  75  51  101  2  1  5  5   7  15  .245 .311  .386  .697   69  3.90
Baltimore    584  60  142  222  27  1  17  77  44   91  0  0  2  6   6  12  .243 .300  .380  .680   66  3.73
Kansas City  585  65  138  224  42  1  14  78  43  151  7  3  0  5   8  15  .236 .295  .383  .678   64  3.61
Oakland    607  57  158  209  29  2  6  47  45  106  2  3  3  1  11  22  .260 .322  .344  .667   63  3.56
Seattle    576  50  145  217  28  1  14  68  29   72  2  2  3  4  10  14  .252 .297  .377  .674   62  3.59
Boston    565  47  123  193  28  0  14  55  69  172  0  1  1  3   6  19  .218 .308  .342  .650   58  3.34
NY Yankees   547  62  126  183  33  0   8  45  36  108  4  0  8  5  12  24  .230 .290  .335  .625   50  2.92
Hey, you think the Yankees missed Jorge Posada? Well, screw 'em. If you're taken by surprise wjem a 36 year old catcher gets injured, I've got to ask one question: you expect to live forever?

You will also note that AL catchers combined to hit 17 triples last season, not quite as many as Jose Reyes of the Mets managed all by himself.

Anyway, it will be very interesting to see what Michael Barrett makes of his new lease on life. Barrett used to be a very good hitter for a catcher - certainly better than Barajas (or Gregg Zaun, for that matter). It wasn't all that long ago. He didn't hit a lick in San Diego, but that been known to happen, San Diego's current park being the toughest place to hit in major league history. Barrett's a man coming back after a life-changing and career-threatening experience. He's still only 32 years old - younger than Rod Barajas (never mind Zaun.) Catcher, however, is the one position that Gaston has consistently favoured the better defender over the better hitter.

FIRST BASE    AB   R   H   TB   2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP  BAVG OBP  SLG  OPS   RC  RC/27
Detroit    644  91  195  349  42  2  36 125  58 128   3  0  0  8  3   18  .303 .359 .542 .901   122   6.80
Boston    622  95  194  323  44  5  25 109  64 115   4  5  0  8 11   16  .312 .382 .519 .901   121   7.06
Tampa Bay    590  91  144  287  32  3  35 116 111 177   5  1  0  9 11   8  .244 .369 .486 .855   114   6.41
Minnesota    630  98  185  309  48  5  22 124  74  89   0  1  0 11  3   20  .294 .365 .490 .855   111   6.19
LA Angels    610  92  185  301  39  1  25  93  56  52   6  1  0  8 10   21  .303 .367 .493 .860   107   6.32
NY Yankees   565  78  139  260  26  1  31 106  76 143   2  2  1 12 20   10  .246 .349 .460 .809    95   5.54
AL AVERAGE   599  83  160  268  33  2  24  92  69 117   2  2  2  7  8   16  .265 .345 .446 .791    92   5.26
Baltimore    601  91  149  263  27  0  29  89  81 100   0  1  0  7  3   10  .248 .337 .438 .774    91   5.06
Cleveland    600  69  157  245  26  1  20 100  64 107   0  1  1  7 15   15  .262 .344 .408 .752   85   4.81
Chicago Sox  581  79  133  248  24  2  29  86  88 122   3  0  1  6  8   19  .229 .335 .427 .762   84   4.71
Texas    602  89  155  273  38  1  26  87  53 138   1  3  5  2  4   16  .257 .321 .453 .774    83   4.68
Toronto    584  78  153  235  33  2  15  69  76 124   1  2  3  5  4   25  .262 .348 .402 .751   79   4.54
Kansas City  606  75  168  240  26  2  14  70  38  86   4  4  1  3  5   20  .277 .324 .396 .720   72   4.15
Oakland    569  68  134  206  29  5  11  63  68 119   1  1  8  5  5   8  .236 .320 .362 .682    69   3.93
Seattle    587  62  142  214  25  1  15  57  60 138   3  6  6  3  4   15  .242 .315 .365 .680   65   3.67
A funny thing happened to Lyle Overbay in 2008 - the southpaws caught up to him. Prior to last season, Overbay had always hung in reasonably well against the sinister fellows - he sacrificed most of his power, but always managed to maintain most of his batting average. Even after last season's dismal performance against lefties (.215 with 0 homers), he still sports a career .272 mark against southpaws (he's .284 against the Normal Guys.)

Is it a one-year blip? Is it a bit of carry-over from having his hand broken and a season ruined by a left-hander? Is this something that happens to you when you turn 31? A bit of all three? I don't expect a strict platoon here, but I expect Overbay will be "rested" against the tougher lefties. I think Gaston will give him a chance, though, to show that he can still carry the whole job. If he can't, we'll see some Jose Bautista.
SECOND BASE   AB  R    H    TB  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP  BAVG  OBP  SLG  OPS    RC  RC/27
Boston    680 123  218  329  56  2  17  85  53  55  20  1  7 10   7  19  .321 .371 .484 .854   122   6.50
Texas    687 125  208  327  48  7  19  83  56  91  29  3 10  7   8  17  .303 .359 .476 .835   119   6.11
Baltimore    648 112  194  295  56  9  9  61  83 112  40 10  3  7   2  10  .299 .377 .455 .832   118   6.47
Detroit    665 107  206  283  40  5   9  73  53  59   9  1  6  4  10  16  .310 .367 .426 .793   104   5.65
Tampa Bay    675 100  186  263  32  9   9  56  75 139   8  6  4  4   6   2  .276 .351 .390 .741   98   5.01
AL AVERAGE   638  91  180  261  38  4  12  70  52  93  15  4  8  6   6  13  .281 .338 .408 .746    89   4.82
Kansas City  636  69  193  260  46  3   5  55  39  82   7  4  5  4   6  13  .303 .347 .409 .756    88   4.98
Toronto    642  81  179  250  35  3  10  76  54  85  11  2 12  5   7   9  .279 .339 .389 .728    88   4.67
Seattle    644  82  187  272  41  1  14  85  34  78   9  1  7  9   2  12  .290 .324 .422 .746    87   4.71
Minnesota    648 104  179  249  31  3  11  72  57  99  13  5 22  7   3  15  .276 .334 .384 .719    84   4.29
LA Angels    598  79  162  226  40  3   6  58  41 121  22  5  1  6   7  16  .271 .322 .378 .700    72   4.16
Chicago Sox  596  76  158  259  25  2  24  92  26  86  11  8  8  4   4  14  .265 .298 .435 .733    71   4.05
NY Yankees   622  73  165  251  35  3  15  74  27  72   2  4  2  5   5  20  .265 .299 .404 .702    68   3.74
Cleveland    583  74  145  191  23  4   5  63  64 118   8  4 17  5  10   9  .249 .331 .328 .658    67   3.74
Oakland    606  72  136  204  26  3  12  52  70 107  19  3  6  2   6  13  .224 .310 .337 .647    67   3.55
Around this time last year the Jays were thinking - geez, five teams in the AL East and we got the worst production of the five out of our second baseman? And this was after Aaron Hill's outstanding 2007 campaign. Since when do we find the best hitters in the infield at second base, anyway? But that's how it was. It was as if it was 1920 or something, when the sluggers were at second base and the glove wizards played third. It was a very tough group in the AL East back in 2007- you had Roberts in Baltimore, Pedroia in Boston, Cano in New York, and Upton in Tampa. A few things have changed. Upton's an outfielder now, and Cano stopped hitting like Alex Rios.

If Aaron Hill comes back and hits the way he did in 2007 - all will be well. But if he comes back and hits the way he did in 2006, the Jays could be better off with Mighty Joe Inglett. This is Hill's age 27 season and he should be highly motivated (nothing like having the game taken away from you to make you appreciate it - see Michael Barrett for the same story.)
THIRD BASE    AB  R    H    TB  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP  BAVG  OBP  SLG  OPS    RC  RC/27
NY Yankees   612 107  173  313  38  0  34 104  68 135  18  4  0  4  12  19  .283 .364 .511 .875   112   6.47
Tampa Bay    621  81  171  322  44  4  33 106  62 150   8  2  0  8   8  15  .275 .345 .519 .863   110   6.12
Boston    626  87  176  296  46  1  24 116  66  99   3  2  1 10   7  18  .281 .351 .473 .824   102   5.66
Baltimore    645  96  184  308  39  2  27 117  50  92   4  6  3  7  11  17  .285 .344 .478 .821   101   5.47
Kansas City  602  88  160  262  39  3  19  72  72 146  11  2  2  6   6   8  .266 .347 .435 .782    95   5.40
Texas    590  84  166  277  40  4  21  90  51 140   3  2  4  6   4  13  .281 .339 .469 .809    92   5.42
Detroit    591  94  153  254  35  3  20  89  73 129   8  7  2  6   7  13  .259 .344 .430 .774    87   5.00
AL AVERAGE   600  83  160  259  36  3  19  85  60 121   9  4  2  6   6  13  .266 .337 .430 .767    87   4.94
Seattle    624  81  160  269  34  3  23  78  56 111   8  2  0  4   3  13  .256 .319 .431 .750    85   4.63
Toronto    585  84  149  231  35  4  13  72  65  94  12  3  2  6  13  16  .255 .339 .395 .734    80   4.59
Chicago Sox  575  69  152  254  35  2  21  84  48  94   1  7  3  5   4  14  .264 .323 .442 .765    77   4.57
Minnesota    576  69  163  230  34  6   7  91  47  97   4  4  1 15   1  14  .283 .330 .399 .730    75   4.45
Cleveland    572  80  149  217  33  1  11  70  47 123   4  2  9  1   7   7  .260 .324 .379 .703    72   4.22
LA Angels    630  82  162  193  16  3   3  34  69 121  32 15  3  0   6  10  .257 .336 .306 .643    68   3.68
Oakland    555  59  124  194  31  0  13  65  70 162   5  0  3  4   1   8  .223 .310 .350 .659    64   3.70
It sure wasn't Scott Rolen who turned around the Toronto offense when Gaston took over on June 20. In the month of July, Rolen batted a lusty .163 with zero home runs. In early August they put him out of his misery and moved him to the DL. On the field, they shuffled Marco Scutaro over to third base and put John McDonald into the everyday lineup. This switch - McDonald for Rolen - actually represented a marginal offensive improvement, as McDonald did manage to bat .225 in August. I submit that the previous sentence is the most humilating thing that has happened to Scott Rolen in his professional career. At any rate, he returned in September with a "new swing," and by gosh - he hit .307 in September. Counting on him to play 140 games seems delusional - that's why Jose Bautista is on the team. It won't be John McDonald picking up those at bats. Not this time.

SHORTSTOP     AB  R    H    TB  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP  BAVG  OBP  SLG  OPS    RC  RC/27
Texas    699 111  198  285  37  4  14  88  59 117  10  0  2  5   2  20  .283 .339 .408 .746    95   4.77
Cleveland    641 110  181  309  48  4  24  97  48 134   4  3  4  6   4  27  .282 .333 .482 .815    94   5.09
NY Yankees   651  96  192  262  28  3  12  72  59 103  10  5  9  4   8  27  .295 .359 .402 .761    89   4.81
Chicago Sox  685  96  193  254  35  1   8  58  56  72  21  6  3  9   1  16  .282 .333 .371 .704    85   4.31
Tampa Bay    589  66  161  229  28  5  10  57  35  99  22  5  5  5  11  12  .273 .323 .389 .712    75   4.35
Boston    556  57  149  200  37  4   2  59  70 107  13  5  5 10  14  19  .268 .358 .360 .718    74   4.49
LA Angels    630  87  169  239  30  5  10  74  32  94  16  4 12  3   6   9  .268 .308 .379 .688    74   3.97
Detroit    599  89  161  237  26  4  14  67  50  83   7  3  6  5   1  19  .269 .324 .396 .719    73   4.17
AL AVERAGE   612  79  163  230  32  3   9  65  45  95  11  4  7  6   5  18  .265 .317 .373 .690    71   3.94
Toronto    589  64  151  193  33  0   3  58  48  71   5  1 16  6  12  10  .256 .322 .328 .650    65   3.62
Oakland    616  73  149  220  45  1   8  70  53 111   8  4  0  4   3  18  .242 .303 .357 .660    64   3.47
Seattle    599  72  164  227  36  3   7  52  24  51   6  5  6  6   2  23  .274 .301 .379 .680    61   3.47
Minnesota    573  63  145  198  27  4   6  62  42 102  14  5  9 11   3  15  .253 .302 .346 .648    60   3.40
Kansas City  619  78  154  217  26  5   9  56  28 100  10  4  3  4   1  16  .249 .281 .351 .631    57   3.09
Baltimore    518  46  113  143  18  3   2  44  27  92   3  5 13  4   3  18  .218 .259 .276 .535    34   2.04
The Jays were almost league average in production at shortstop, despite the fact that John McDonald started 52 games there (and went .211/.259/.274 while he was at it.) Marco Scutaro had a thoroughly average year by his own standards, and he's 33 years old now. He gives you competent defense (he's still a better second baseman) and league average offense for the position. A bit of slippage is possible, but I'd be shocked if it's enough to get Johnny Mac anything close to regular playing time. Which is always a good thing for the offense.

Meanwhile, don't you think someone in Baltimore was calling Cal Ripken and saying "come back, Cal! Please! I don't care how old you are, you can still hit better than these guys." Juan Castro, Freddie Bynum, and Brandon Fahey were the culprits. 

LEFT FIELD    AB  R    H    TB  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP  BAVG  OBP  SLG  OPS    RC  RC/27
Chicago Sox  610 116  165  325  30  2  42 112  77 112  10  5  2  4  21  19  .270 .369 .533 .902   118   6.69
Boston    651 112  185  298  35  3  24  98  69 153  16  6  1  7   9  12  .284 .357 .458 .815   108   5.82
Seattle    644  85  188  304  46  2  22 110  60 111   4  4  0  5   3  14  .292 .353 .472 .825   105   5.79
Baltimore    606  80  164  285  29  4  28  89  55 114   4  2  2  2   4   5  .271 .334 .470 .805    97   5.53
NY Yankees   644  83  183  275  32  3  18  92  60 108  17  5  3  2   5  12  .284 .349 .427 .776    97   5.29
AL AVERAGE   622  86  166  267  32  4  20  87  62 122  10  5  2  6   6  14  .266 .336 .430 .766    89   4.91
Oakland    597  72  143  241  27  1  23  94  92 171   6  2  2  6   5  12  .240 .343 .404 .747    87   4.79
Cleveland    612  82  163  258  43  2  16  78  58 119   4  5  2  6  13  14  .266 .340 .422 .761    87   4.83
Kansas City  632  73  178  260  40  6  10  77  52 101   9  6  3  4   3  17  .282 .337 .411 .749    84   4.66
Texas    617  84  152  248  35  5  17  87  67 134  11  2  3  8   6  10  .246 .322 .402 .724    83   4.46
Detroit    604  85  144  272  31  2  31  82  67 159   2  6  0  5   4  14  .238 .316 .450 .767    83   4.55
Tampa Bay    641 104  166  257  23 10  16  80  54 112  29  9  0  5   4  14  .259 .318 .401 .719    81   4.31
LA Angels    619  71  162  249  30  3  17  86  51 106   7  5  1 12   4  21  .262 .316 .402 .719    75   4.06
Minnesota    634  85  174  244  29  4  11  72  40 116  14  5  1  5   7  20  .274 .322 .385 .707    75   4.10
Toronto    593  68  153  228  22 10  11  56  61  98   8  3  4  9   2  18  .258 .325 .384 .709    73   4.12
Damn, that was ugly. Travis Snider has to be better than that. Right?
CENTRE FIELD  AB  R    H    TB  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP  BAVG  OBP  SLG  OPS    RC  RC/27
Cleveland    658 105  180  334  43  6  33  90  91 133  36  6  0  4  10  5  .274 .368 .508 .876   133   7.02
Detroit    664 121  183  312  33 15  22  78  79 146  16  4  5  2   4   8  .276 .355 .470 .825   115   5.99
Texas    643 101  180  308  39  7  25 117  71 137   8  3  2  6   5   9  .280 .353 .479 .832   111   6.01
Boston    622 102  181  269  33  8  13  66  60  93  40 11  9  4   5  13  .291 .356 .432 .788    98   5.50
Tampa Bay    609  98  158  232  37  2  11  71 105 153  46 16  5  7   3  14  .259 .367 .381 .748    93   5.10
LA Angels    627  92  171  280  42  2  21  87  56 124  21  5  0  2   6  18  .273 .337 .447 .784    92   5.13
AL AVERAGE   629  90  169  259  32  5  16  75  58 121  25  7  4  4   5  14  .269 .333 .412 .744    87   4.73
Toronto    655  92  185  287  38  2  20  89  43  84  17  6  0  8   4  28  .282 .327 .438 .765    86   4.56
Seattle    637  88  178  232  31  4   5  49  49  89  32  4  5  2   5  14  .279 .335 .364 .699    80   4.40
NY Yankees   612  76  160  239  20  4  17  66  50  90  27  5  5  4   5  13  .261 .320 .391 .711    78   4.32
Chicago Sox  579  82  138 240 34 1 22 73 69 136 7 2 4 3 1 19 .238 .319 .415 .734 75 4.24
Minnesota 667 85 173 243 29 7 9 71 31 155 34 12 4 3 7 9 .259 .298 .364 .662 72 3.67
Baltimore 620 81 165 240 25 7 12 68 35 128 14 4 2 5 8 18 .266 .311 .387 .698 72 3.95
Oakland 600 61 156 218 30 7 6 61 31 130 22 4 4 5 1 14 .260 .295 .363 .658 63 3.56
Kansas City 612 72 164 197 12 3 5 70 37 94 24 10 13 5 8 11 .268 .316 .322 .638 63 3.46


Vernon Wells was generally outstanding at the plate in 2008.  Problem is, he missed two months of the season, and for some reason Alex Rios stopped hitting when he moved over to replace him. Rios played 62 games in CF, and hit .257 with 4 HR. That's probably random chance - his slumps coincided with Wells' injuries (let's not get into the impact of Wells' absence from the batting order behind him - but hey, who knows?)

RIGHT FIELD  AB    R	H   TB  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP  BAVG  OBP  SLG  OPS    RC  RC/27
Texas 638 107 202 364 52 4 34 134 69 123 8 2 1 8 5 13 .317 .383 .571 .954 140 8.01
Baltimore 618 110 188 301 51 1 20 88 101 115 10 7 0 1 2 10 .304 .403 .487 .890 125 7.37
Boston 615 106 167 286 34 8 23 94 93 123 20 4 2 6 6 13 .272 .369 .465 .834 111 6.20
Detroit 638 84 198 318 38 2 26 113 62 96 1 5 0 5 3 23 .310 .371 .498 .870 110 6.33
Chicago Sox 638 101 180 339 44 2 37 102 51 122 4 3 0 5 8 20 .282 .340 .531 .872 109 5.99
NY Yankees 648 100 188 292 39 4 19 104 73 112 22 10 0 2 1 13 .290 .362 .451 .812 105 5.81
AL AVERAGE 625 94 176 287 37 4 22 90 64 119 12 5 2 4 5 15 .281 .351 .459 .809 99 5.57
Toronto 626 85 178 279 46 8 13 79 52 130 21 6 1 10 3 8 .284 .337 .446 .783 97 5.37
Minnesota 619 112 170 262 30 10 14 91 75 114 20 8 8 3 8 12 .275 .359 .423 .782 96 5.35
LA Angels 635 91 184 299 37 3 24 94 54 98 7 6 0 3 2 25 .290 .346 .471 .817 95 5.31
Cleveland 600 99 155 261 38 4 20 83 53 136 13 3 5 4 11 14 .258 .328 .435 .763 85 4.80
Kansas City 634 79 172 274 41 5 17 81 44 135 5 4 1 3 7 15 .271 .324 .432 .756 85 4.66
Oakland 647 83 169 263 31 3 19 78 45 118 11 1 1 4 10 17 .261 .317 .406 .724 82 4.33
Tampa Bay 557 77 136 246 18 4 28 74 66 148 14 3 1 2 6 13 .244 .330 .442 .771 82 4.92
Seattle 638 75 180 232 20 4 8 40 55 96 17 6 4 4 4 10 .282 .341 .364 .705 81 4.44

While Alex Rios was having a nice productive season as a right fielder (.312/.361/.499) he did have to move over to CF for two months, which left RF to be patrolled by the Ghost of Brad Wilkerson. The Texas right field situation is an interesting story. This was the best production any AL team received from any position, and what makes it odd is that the Rangers didn't have anything remotely close to a regular right fielder. David Murphy, who gets listed as the regular, only started 43 games in RF. Josh Hamilton and Marlon Byrd each started 33 games there, Nelson Cruz 31 times and Milton Bradley 19.

DH	      AB  R    H    TB  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP  BAVG  OBP  SLG  OPS	   RC  RC/27
Texas 565 100 170 279 39 2 22 80 104 147 8 5 2 6 18 11 .301 .421 .494 .915 125 7.87
Boston 590 106 161 289 39 1 29 116 98 115 3 0 1 3 5 17 .273 .379 .490 .869 111 6.56
NY Yankees 571 94 161 263 34 1 22 80 77 108 12 4 1 1 12 9 .282 .378 .461 .839 103 6.40
Baltimore 591 89 162 290 44 3 26 108 51 105 4 2 1 8 3 9 .274 .331 .491 .821 96 5.58
Chicago Sox 562 102 138 272 29 0 35 97 95 161 3 2 0 4 4 21 .246 .356 .484 .840 95 5.69
Minnesota 580 87 156 254 29 6 19 94 67 123 0 1 1 5 2 10 .269 .344 .438 .782 88 5.25
AL AVERAGE 580 83 148 253 30 2 24 88 69 125 5 2 1 5 7 15 .256 .339 .435 .774 86 4.99
LA Angels 597 83 162 261 21 3 24 89 52 90 7 2 2 5 3 13 .271 .330 .437 .767 85 4.92
Tampa Bay 570 72 140 244 32 0 24 78 56 131 8 4 0 7 12 10 .246 .322 .428 .751 80 4.66
Oakland 564 84 129 224 18 1 25 64 89 163 4 0 0 4 5 12 .229 .337 .397 .734 79 4.60
Cleveland 584 73 138 227 38 0 17 85 65 143 4 4 0 10 16 13 .236 .324 .389 .713 75 4.20
Toronto 579 73 143 242 24 3 23 94 61 135 2 2 2 2 7 20 .247 .325 .418 .743 75 4.35
Kansas City 598 71 160 267 29 0 26 86 32 90 0 1 0 2 5 26 .268 .309 .446 .756 73 4.23
Detroit 583 74 127 226 19 1 26 77 74 127 9 3 0 3 5 22 .218 .310 .388 .697 68 3.76
Seattle 589 58 130 197 20 1 15 77 39 118 3 1 3 4 5 17 .221 .273 .334 .608 51 2.81

Those Seattle numbers boggle the mind. The only positions in the entire American League that performed worse than the Seattle designated hitters were the Yankee catchers and the Oriole shortstops. Jose Vidro accounts for about half of those at bats and as bad as he was, the other guys they tried were even worse. Jeff Clement, who had the next biggest chunk of DH at bats, batted .111 in the role. Ibanez, Beltre, and Johjima combined to hit .167 when they were DHing on their days off.

In Toronto, neither Frank Thomas nor Matt Stairs could reproduce their fine 2007 seasons. I didn't quite see that coming, although curiously enough I also seem to be unable to reproduce any of my own outstanding triumphs from back when I was young and full of vigour. In retrospect, it seems clear that pulling the plug so quickly on Frank Thomas was the smartest thing J.P. Ricciardi did in 2008. We all thought so at the time, as I recall.

Anyway. I don't think this is a league average offense. I think it's a little better than that. It's probably not quite as good as what we saw over the final 88 games, but I think they should score roughly 100 more runs than they did in 2007. I think they'll get over 800 anyway. The pitchers are going to have a little more room to work with this time around.
The Blue Jays Offense | 30 comments | Create New Account
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CeeBee - Saturday, April 04 2009 @ 08:13 AM EDT (#197836) #

Excellent read on the hitters, Magpie. Can't say I disagree with much of anything and I am quite excited about watching all the rookies and near rookies this year. With a lot of new young faces as well as a full year of Cito, Gino and Dwayne it should at least make for some fun baseball and who knows, maybe more excitement than most are predicting.

ayjackson - Saturday, April 04 2009 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#197837) #
Magpie = Captain Feathersword???
Glevin - Saturday, April 04 2009 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#197838) #
I think that generally coaches influences are overstated and Gaston's influence on the offense was a lot more about chance than about a management change. (One or two players maybe will see a change when a coach notices something wrong, but even that is pretty rare.) Rios hit better under Gibbons in 2007, Overbay had his career year under Gibbons in 2006, and so on, so how does it make sense that they forgot to hit with  Gibbons in the first half of 2008? I still don't think this is a team that will finish with an above average offense, but I think they will be just about close to average at about every position.
scottt - Saturday, April 04 2009 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#197839) #
The one thing that bothers me most is Snider hitting 9th every day.

Overbay has had a terrible spring. He's hitting .167. Obviously, it's because he's coming off surgery. I see no reason to give him AB against lefties in April. He's hasn't played like a gold glover either. Bautista and Millar have looked bad too. And Snider has not looked like an improvement over Lind. Over time, Overbay should head, Snider should learn but the other two will still stink.

Rolen will probably not last the year, but I like the numbers he can put on a good month.

Our outfield should be crazy good. It really should.

We got 2 lefties in the rotation and a bag of them in the pen. I really hope this translates as more wins. 2 of our 3 right handed starters should be alright and I just hope that Richmond can keep .500 line in his temp job. His peripheral numbers are not that bad, but the guy never seems to catch a break.

Anything could happen in the pen. I don't think we'll have an automatic 7-8-9 closing squad this year.



 

christaylor - Saturday, April 04 2009 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#197840) #
Easily and by a wide margin -- the best article on our favoured blue corvids on the WWW!
christaylor - Saturday, April 04 2009 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#197841) #
...by which I mean to say -- the author stays away from what he knows nothing about, which is, whatever that is... but is probably: the pitching.
Anders - Saturday, April 04 2009 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#197842) #
...by which I mean to say -- the author stays away from what he knows nothing about, which is, whatever that is... but is probably: the pitching.

I wouldn't discount Magpie so quickly! There's still tomorrow to come.

Still, I think it is well worth noting that there are reasons to not be completely pessimistic when it comes to the Jays offense this year. Steps forward across all three outfield positions and at DH seem possible, as do they at second and perhaps third. This team is never going to lead the league - there just isn't enough power - but they have a number of decent hitters, and that Cito magic.

As for Snider hitting 9th - he has 20 odd ML games under his belt, and I don't think it's a huge worry if he starts the season in a lower batting slot. Over the course of an entire season batting 9th over 6th might cost him 60 PAs, and I doubt he will bat 9th the entire time anyway...
Gerry - Saturday, April 04 2009 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#197846) #
The Jays final spring game is on TSN right now, Ricky Romero pitching.
Ron - Saturday, April 04 2009 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#197848) #
Here's the PECOTA for the Jays hitters:

Scutaro:.5HRS 255/.331/.358
Hill: 8HRS .260/.317/.385
Rios: 19HRS .275/.332/.459
Wells: 16HRS .267/.323/.435
Lind: 14HRS: .272/.326/.458
Rolen: 12HRS .260/.335/.420
Overbay: 10HRS: .255/.322/.396
Barajas: 6HRS /.241/.303/.392
Snider: 23HRS: .252/.326/.446

Bautista: 12HRS .244/.326/.415
McDonald: 1HR .223/.277/.301
Millar: 14HRS /.231/.320/.407
Barrett: 5HRS: .251/.312/.383

According to PECOTA, the Jays are going to have trouble hitting for average, getting on base, and hitting for power.

Overall, the Jays hitters as a group are weak. I know Gaston has said Overbay and Rolen need to have bounce back seasons. The problem is both players are no longer in their prime years and have suffered serious injuries. If Rolen does go back to hitting like he did in his prime, would the Jays still want to dump his salary? It would be a lot easier to move his contract but the Jays view themselves as a contender in 2010 and trading a productive Rolen without a replacement would seem like a backwards move.

I'm predicting Adam Lind turns the corner and has a good season. Outside of July, he was a sinkhole last year but he has hit at every level in the minors. I believe starting the season in the majors without the threat of a demotion will do him a world of good.

Mike Green - Saturday, April 04 2009 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#197849) #
The PECOTA projections this year are weird.  For instance, Alex Rios' OBP the last 3 years has been .349, .354 and .337.  He is 28 years old.  PECOTA has him at .332 for 2009, whereas CHONE/ZIPS has him at .342/.347.  I'll take the CHONE/ZIPS consensus. 
christaylor - Saturday, April 04 2009 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#197851) #
I just saw Aaron Hill make an incredible play up the middle off a stung ground ball off a "bunter"... truly, Hill is the best all-round 2B in the AL East. Debate?
Magpie - Saturday, April 04 2009 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#197853) #
Hill might be the 5th best 2b in the division. Its a very good group.
92-93 - Saturday, April 04 2009 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#197857) #
Pedroia > Roberts > Hill > Cano > Iwamura
Mike Green - Saturday, April 04 2009 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#197860) #
This is Aaron's age 27 season.  Right now, he is obviously behind Pedroia and Roberts, but subjectively, I still feel that he can be a very good to great player.  A wise man once compared Hill to Jeff Kent, with a little less O and more D.  Kent was a good player in his 20s and then turned it up a notch. 
Nolan - Saturday, April 04 2009 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#197862) #
Scutaro:.5HRS 255/.331/.358
Hill: 8HRS .260/.317/.385
Rios: 19HRS .275/.332/.459
Wells: 16HRS .267/.323/.435
Lind: 14HRS: .272/.326/.458
Rolen: 12HRS .260/.335/.420
Overbay: 10HRS: .255/.322/.396
Barajas: 6HRS /.241/.303/.392
Snider: 23HRS: .252/.326/.446


I'd take the over on Hill, Rios, Wells, Rolen and Overbay.  To hit those predictions, they all basically have to continue or revert back to their lowest level of play.  Wells and Rios, maybe not quite as much, but that's still a bad season for them.

I think Lind, Scutaro, Barajas, and Snider are about right.  Scutaro probably has a bit more OBP in him and Barajas a bit more power, but overall about right. 

All in all, IMHO the Jays will outperform these predictions; perhaps not by an outrageous amount, but enough to make a difference.
Mike Green - Saturday, April 04 2009 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#197863) #
PECOTA's OBP projection for Overbay (.322) is wild.  He's 32 years old.  His OBP the last 4 years has been .367, .372, .315, and .358.  CHONE/ZIPS has it at .346/.350.  I would take the CHONE/ZIPS consensus in a heartbeat.

Nate Silver has been taking a reduced role in BP due to fivethirtyeight.com.  I'd bet that CHONE and ZIPS do a significantly better job with the offensive projections this year.

Glevin - Saturday, April 04 2009 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#197875) #
"PECOTA's OBP projection for Overbay (.322) is wild.  He's 32 years old.  His OBP the last 4 years has been .367, .372, .315, and .358.  CHONE/ZIPS has it at .346/.350.  I would take the CHONE/ZIPS consensus in a heartbeat."

You're right. Looking at his last few years, his age, etc...one would expect an OBP in the .350 range. I don't put much stock into these predictors. Just looking at the players, their ages, trends, etc...will give you just as good an indication of how guys will do. I'd say it's very likely the Jays will have an improved offense, but still one in the bottom five in the league. How many of the teams that finished ahead of the Jays last year are going to be worse than them this year? Maybe the Angels although a full season of Abreu over Gary Matthews will  make up for the loss of  a couple of months of Teixera. Below the Jays, Oakland has added Holliday, Giambi, Cabrera, and maybe a healthy Chavez (or, at least Nomar who is still better than Hannahan) so they are likely to vastly improve there. Even K.C. improved offensively. As mediocre as Jacobs and Crisp are offensively, they are a massive improvement on Gload and Gathright.  The only offense that I would guarantee being worse than the Jays is Seattle who was bad last year, have improved some places (getting rid of Vidro and Cairo and replacing them with anyone is a big boost) and gotten worse others (Ibanez was their best hitter, Griffey is much worse). Will the Jays be the second worst offense? Probably not, but they'll likely be in that tier.
Ron - Sunday, April 05 2009 @ 01:02 AM EDT (#197877) #
When I saw a State of BP Letter from Nate Silver, I thought he was going to announce he was leaving BP. With his political website taking off, he has branched out beyond baseball. I saw him in GQ and Maxim this month. I believe he was in Details last month and the word on the street is that he has a 2 book deal worth up to $700,000.

While PECOTA isn't 100 percent accurate, it's pretty close.

Here's a look at the PECOTA projects for Jays hitters in 08 and their actual numbers

Hill (.271/.325/.405) (.263/..324/.361)
Lind: (.267/.324/.443) (.282/..316//.439)
McDonald (.246/.288/.330) (.210/.255/..269)
Overbay (.265/.341/.423) (.270/..358/.419)
Rios (.280/.339/.468) (.291/..337/.461)
Wells (.270/.333/.454) (.300/.343/.496)
Rolen (.263/.331/.398) (.262/.349/..431)
Barajas (.245/.316/.433) (.249/.294/..410)
Scutaro (.257/.334/.383) (.267/.341/..356)

I was really impressed with the Rios projection. He was coming off a 24HR season and was entering the magical age 27 season. Many people thought he would take the next step in his development and perhaps become a sleeper MVP candidate. PECOTA actually had him regressing and that's what happened last season. He's the poor mans Vladdy.

Just for shits and giggles, PECOTA had Cliff Lee putting up a 5.06 ERA. Oops

Nolan - Sunday, April 05 2009 @ 01:47 AM EDT (#197878) #
With regards to Rios regressing last year, I really believe that is was the new batting coach's philosophy that screwed the start of his season.  His approach was completely different than previous years; he was trying to be more selective, but it seemed he watched good pitches go by and then resorted to hacking when he inevitably fell behind.  During the second half, he started reacting and swinging again and his numbers jumped.  I guess we'll have to wait and see if it was truly an improvement or just a hot streak.
Olerud363 - Sunday, April 05 2009 @ 05:31 AM EDT (#197886) #

PECOTA is ussually pretty good.  But this year something is fishy.   3 points....

1.  Basically as a group the projection system should have them at their career levels.  Older players regress a little more, Younger players improve.   But this year almost everyone is projected to have subpar seasons??  Why is Wells 2009 projection worse then the 2008 projection??  After re-establishing himself as a .300 hitter and posting a career low strikeout rate, the 2009 projection should take this into acccount.

2.  Also the projections are supposed to be based on comparables.  Wells' comparables are listed as Tori Hunter, Aaron Rowand, Carlos Lee, and Derek Bell.   Hunter, Rowand and Lee are all projected to have better seasons then Wells.  Aaron Rowand??  Inferior all his career, inferior last year, in a tough hitters park, 1 year older?????  Doesn't make sense statistically to project him better.

3.  Another projection system (zips) has better projections for the majority of players.  It would be interested to see if ZIPS is projecting a higher level for everyone (higher league offense) or just the Jays.  If the latter then the BP numbers seem even fishier.

The PECOTA projections are output as percentiles (from 0 to 100 which basically gives a range of projections from disaster to dream season) and the listed projection is the 50th percentile.  Mayby someone accidently (or more disturbingly on purpose) output the 40th percentiles for the Jays instead of 50...  They always seem down on the Jays... didn't one of their guys have a personality conflict with JP????

I suppose I should also mention that another Theory is that the Jays projections are low because they have to face the Boston, New York, Tampa Bay pitching staffs so much.  Don't know if this could have that drastic an effect though.

 

  

robertdudek - Sunday, April 05 2009 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#197889) #
Ryan Shealy cleared waivers.

Who would you rather have, Shealy or Kevin Millar?

JohnL - Sunday, April 05 2009 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#197890) #
Haven't seen a reference to this here.  The NY Times today has a big article on the front page of the Sports section on Halladay, titled "Simply the Best".

It starts...
" Asked what makes Roy Halladay the best pitcher in baseball, the Yankees slugger Mark Teixeira widened his eyes with respect and wonder: “All his pitches start in the same place and end in a different place.”

I think the "link bug" is still here, so will just give the URL:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/05/sports/baseball/05halladay.html?

(The online version however is titled "Halladay is the Blue Jays' Only Sure Thing")

timpinder - Sunday, April 05 2009 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#197891) #
Shealy.
robertdudek - Sunday, April 05 2009 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#197892) #
Found this Jeff Blair piece via MLB Rumours. It features comments by JP regarding PEDs and aging (don't know if it's been linked to here before):

http://sports.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090403.wspt-baseball-preview-03/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball/home

Not to be a nit, but how was this not spotted:

Could this be the "greening" of Major League Baseball, as opposed to the "greenies-ing?" Are toxics being expunged from the system, especially now that baseball tests for amphetamines?

Mr. Blair, I am available to proofread for you - and I work cheap.



Mylegacy - Sunday, April 05 2009 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#197894) #

IF - the pitching holds - as it might - but is not likely to THEN - we WILL be competitive for a playoff spot.

BECAUSE...

Our offense is MUCH better this year. IN ORDER OF THEIR "BESTNESS:"

The BEST hitter on the team this year will be Scott Rolen - NO QUESTION. We are so used to Scott "JMAC" Rolen we don't remember  Scott "MVP" Rolen - in 2009 let me introduce you to Scott "MVP LITE" Rolen. Clearly, Scott's reworked swing late last year was not a mirage. We are going to LOVE this man. I predict he will hit 307/389/548 with 110 rbi's and 26 dingers.

Snider is a STUNNING STUD of STUPENDOUS SPLENDOUR - this is our NEW Delgado - a prodigious, gifted virotuoso with the wooden sword of manhood. Had not Rolen emerged from his injury induced slumber - even at the tender age of 21 - Travis would be  our best hitter. I predict 295/369/538 with 90 rbi's and 32 dingers (even starting the season hitting 9th - starting mid-April he will slowly be moved down to 5th by the All-Star break).

Rios is a too-cool, too-laidback one brick short of a load - superstar. Pity. Because if he was 10 pounds heavier and 10% more intense he'd be a true avenger. Even in the state we find him in now - I predict 310/352/512 with 95 rbi's and 27 walkabouts.

Wells - is just too fragile - however with the upbeat in the offense this year I expect to see Vernon have a very solid year. I predict 290/348/505 with 90 ribbies and 30 salami's on rye.

Lind - is going to become the all round hitter he was in the minors. When we drafted him he was considered to be the best bat in our system. This year at age 25 we see the "Man" emerge. I predict 300/350/500 with 83 rbi's and 20 homers.

Aaron "Dizzy Dean" Hill enters his age 27 season - dizzy free and healthily bulked up. Hill has a thickish trunk - one that bodes more power than most suspect. This year - even batting 2nd - we see it. I predict - 275/350/440 with 65 rbi's and 14 homers.

Overbay - the GOOD news is he's recovered from his broken hand! The BAD news is he's not recovered from his THREE hernia opperations this off-season. Fear not - by the All-Star break he'll be back to being his normal doubles machine. Over the FULL year - however - I expect him to hit 265/333/434 with 60 rbi's and 13 homers. Most of that in the second half.

Scutaro is GREATLY UNDERRATED - however - he's still only MLB average(ish). I expect 272/348/397 with 47 rbi's and 4 homers BUT with 100 runs scored. IF he had a better OBP he'd be a shoo-in for 120 rbi's with this team batting behind him.

Barajas is an empty power bat will little else. I predict 235/300/422 with 14 homers and 40ish rbi's.

Isn't it tomorrow yet?

Gwyn - Sunday, April 05 2009 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#197895) #
mlb.com is reporting Matt Clement has retired.  Matt we we never knew ya!

"I was talking to Matty," Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi said on Sunday. "His heart wasn't in it, you could just tell. He's come back from so much. He's come a long way, and I give him credit for that. I think he was just tired of fighting, to be honest with you."

westcoast dude - Sunday, April 05 2009 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#197896) #

Over at the New York Post, Joel Sherman writes what appears to be a gossip sports column  saying that the Red Sox are worried about the decline of Ortiz, Lowell and Veritek and want Alex Rios real bad.

"Toronto is willing to trade Rios in the division because it is financially distressed and the Red Sox are not only willing to take on the $59.7 million left on Rios beyoind this season, but also the $10 million owed B.J. Ryan next year. That enables Toronto to table the decision whether to set off a dramatic bidding war for ace Roy Halladay."

This comes from Bernie Madoff's town, no doubt it is Made Up, but it gives you an insight into somebody's wishful thinking. I see this as recognition that the Blue Jay's are being recognized as a surprising Dark Horse in a four-way race now that the rotation is suddenly nails. Verry interesting. Bring 'em on, baby.

TamRa - Sunday, April 05 2009 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#197898) #
"the Red Sox . . . want Alex Rios real bad."

Let me get this straight -  the guy that many Jays "fans" consider an overpaid chronic underachiever, the guy that many skeptical Jays followers don't seem the think is a difference maker on our team...

THAT guy is the guy the best run team in baseball is willing to take on Ryan's contract when they have no use for him just to get?


And why, again, would we want to trade such a player? let alone to a division rival?

 
Mike Green - Sunday, April 05 2009 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#197899) #
The Rios contract remains a good one.  Hitting .290/.345/.470 and playing excellent defence is worth quite a bit. 
timpinder - Sunday, April 05 2009 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#197900) #
I agree with Mike Green.  Rios is signed to reasonable contract and so is Hill, in my opinion.  There's no need to trade either of them.  Also, Rolen, Overbay and Ryan are going to come off the books after next season, so there isn't a dire need to move them.  I've mentioned it before, but if the Jays decide to trade Halladay it is Wells' contract that they should try to pawn off with him.  I thought that Wells' contract was fair at the time, but that's because his defense and health was fair at the time.  That contract is going to really hurt the Jays going forward. 
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