Mills pitched well in Vegas his last start, seems like maybe he's figured the ground ball out thing. Trystan Magnuson is hot in Denedin and Kenny Rodriguez had a good debut for New Hampshire. These are green shoots.
Randy Ruiz' lack of promotion is puzzling, as this year's Mencherson retread killed the Blue Jays again yesterday. Why not reward success?
Lyle Overbay was 1 for 12 to begin the year with an intentional walk. Nope, he wasn't exactly what we needed either.
Ryan could not throw a strike and couldn't break 86 on the generous YES gun. He was throwing fastballs outside the zone between 82-84. What exactly are they supposed to say? I don't know what they can do, but he can't pitch in the major leagues at this point, his arm is shot. He may as well be trying to throw a frisbee for a strike, had Ransom not swung at pitches out of the zone he would have walked the first two batters in the 5th on 8 pitches.
Getting back to Ruiz for a moment, somebody mentioned that he's redundant as long as Millar is on the team because he's a "left masher".
He's actually hitting RHP better than LHP this year.
Sterling and Waldman went on and on about how poor Ryan has been
Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Sterling and Waldman might be idiots, but even they realize you can't put Ryan in major league games. His injuries have sapped him of the ability to pitch at this level. The average AA starter has better stuff then he does right now, and would throw more strikes.
To bring Ryan into a close game is suicide, you may as well just waive the white flag.
So... who does J.P. try and dump, since the Jays are clearly not contenders any more?
Wells would be the obvious choice, but nobody will take him. Overbay? Think there would be any market for Barajas?
Trading Rios would be a mistake since that would be selling low for a player that should bounce back.
Just wondering how much longer Cito will continue to run BJ Ryan out to the mound?? I cringe every time I see him getting up in the pen! I'm curious what others are feeling about the situation...........
JP and others in the organization have consistently pointed to 2010 as their year. Therefore players that are critical for 2010 will not be traded. Lyle Overbay could possibly be traded with Adam Lind moving to firstbase and Snider to LF. Other than that a bullpen arm or two could be dealt, not Ryan who has no value. Scutaro and Barajas could be traded if the Jays believe they will not be able to keep them in free agency, but Barajas has become Halladay's personal catcher and that counts for something.
I would predict the Jays do nothing at the deadline, maybe one bullpen move but that will be it.
These are the players that I think realistically could be moved:
Bautista
McDonald
Tallet
Frasor
Accardo
None of them are going to bring back anything too interesting.
If you needed any more proof that Yankee stadium is a band box...... Johnny Mac with a HR in the 7th.
Don't know if you were watching, but that was a legit homerun. And it went to left field, not right field where there appears to be a constant air stream pushing routine fly balls into the stands.
Per Bastian, Russ Adams has cleared waivers and has opted for free agency.
Best wishes to him. His versatility might be better suited to a NL team.
I don't wanna hear no negative vibes about the Jays. We could EASILY have won 3 of these four games with the Yanks.
Scutaro, Hill, Lind, Rolen, Overbay, Wells, Rios, Barajas and Bautista may be the BEST - for sure in the running for the best - 1 through 9 in the AL. The bullpen IS struggling and stretched - true. However help is on the way. The starters are THIS close to being a wonderful PLUS going forward - more on that later.
IF - we can resign Scutaro we're SERIOUS contenders for the next 3 to 5 years AT LEAST.
We now have TWO ACES - Halladay and Romero are as good a one two punch as there is. Period.
We have NINE other starters here or on the cusp. IF - I am right the top three of those plus the TWO ACES will give us an AL TOP 5 - 5 starting pitchers. The Top nine others in ORDER (as I see them) are 1) Marcum (back by August), 2) Rzepczynski (I PREDICT THIS GUY IS AN ACE AND AT 23 READY TO START PRODUCING NOW - if you haven't read the scouting report at the following DO IT NOW - bleacherreport.com go MLB - go to the Jays - go to "Archives" and you'll find a FANTASTIC report on him (I tried to link it but I can't get it to work). 3) Cecil - an EXCELLENT starting pitcher - he'll be and ACE with us for years. 4) Tallet. 5) Richmond. 6) Purcey. 7) Mills. 8) Ray and 9) Castro.
By September Halladay, Romero, Marcum, Rzepczynski and Cecil will be our starters and IF we resign Roy they'll be our primary five starters for at least the next five years!
In the SHORT TERM - we need a break or two - WE'RE DUE. Keep the faith. This team is destined for great things!
I don't wanna hear no negative vibes about the Jays. We could EASILY have won 3 of these four games with the Yanks.
But they didn't. They also easily could have been swept.
Scutaro, Hill, Lind, Rolen, Overbay, Wells, Rios, Barajas and Bautista may be the BEST - for sure in the running for the best - 1 through 9 in the AL.
Really? Then why are they tied for 6th in the American League in runs scored per game?
IF - we can resign Scutaro we're SERIOUS contenders for the next 3 to 5 years AT LEAST.
You do realize that Marco Scutaro will never play another 81 games like the last 81 games and that he's 33 years old right? If they CAN resign Scutaro? He's not exactly going to get A-Rod money.
We now have TWO ACES - Halladay and Romero are as good a one two punch as there is. Period
Romero has had a nice half season. Let's not lose our minds.
We have NINE other starters here or on the cusp. IF - I am right the top three of those plus the TWO ACES will give us an AL TOP 5 - 5 starting pitchers. The Top nine others in ORDER (as I see them) are 1) Marcum (back by August), 2) Rzepczynski (I PREDICT THIS GUY IS AN ACE AND AT 23 READY TO START PRODUCING NOW - if you haven't read the scouting report at the following DO IT NOW - bleacherreport.com go MLB - go to the Jays - go to "Archives" and you'll find a FANTASTIC report on him (I tried to link it but I can't get it to work). 3) Cecil - an EXCELLENT starting pitcher - he'll be and ACE with us for years. 4) Tallet. 5) Richmond. 6) Purcey. 7) Mills. 8) Ray and 9) Castro.
How is Marcum going to be back in August? Zep has thrown 88 innings above the Midwest League. It's INSANE that he's starting in the major leagues tomorrow. Could be one of Riccardi's 5 biggest mistakes, and that is saying something. I love Cecil, but come on... he's pretty far away from 'EXCELLENT' at this point. They have a chance to have a good rotation the next 3 years, they also have a chance to be in this same situation 3 years from now where they are starting pitchers with 88 innings above Low-A.
By September Halladay, Romero, Marcum, Rzepczynski and Cecil will be our starters and IF we resign Roy they'll be our primary five starters for at least the next five years!
Could you punch up the team that used 5 primary starters for 5 years. Has it ever happened in the history of the 5 man rotation?
There's only one place to trade Doc - Texas. They have the excess of prospects to meet the price that the Jays must hold out for. And Doc's from Texas. And Texas longs for a pitching staff.
But let us not discuss this anymore.
Doc from Denver?? How did I miss that all these years.
As for Marcum, I expect velocity and command issues too, which is why I'm glad to see him back early working through those issues this year.
Zip getting the call isn't ideal, but the other options (Burres, Purcey and Castro) haven't been pitching very well lately. What's Ben Sheets status these days? Is he from Texas?
"We have to see what's out there," Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi says. "I'm not saying we're going to shop him. But if something makes sense, we at least have to listen. We're (leaning) more toward listening than we've ever been."
We have to remember that under Rogers the Blue Jays have been managed as a commercial business. I believe Rogers generally tries to manage the Jays to break-even and uses the Jays as a marketing vehicle for Sportsnet and their other products.
With regard to a possible Halladay trade I have three thoughts:
1. Is Paul Beeston trying to buy the Jays? There have been rumours that he is interested and he has made little or no progress on hiring a replacement for himself. If he is interested, and did buy the team, the Jays would probably have to operate at a profit and might not be able to affford Halladay.
2. The Jays must be hurting in this economy and the payroll is likely under pressure. The Jays and Rogers get revenues from ticket sales, sponsorships and TV revenue. Tickets sales are down this season although I did hear someone suggest that revenues are not down as much but I find that hard to believe, it's not like the Jays were giving tickets away last season. I believe MLB may have changed how attendance is reported but still the crowds have been visibly disappointing.
Sponsorship revenue is down but he big question is on TV revenue. Here is an extract from Rogers Q1 financials:
The decrease in Media's revenues for the three months ended March 31, 2009, compared to the corresponding period of 2008, primarily reflects revenue
declines at Publishing, Radio and Television driven by the soft advertising market
Rogers Q1 media revenues were down by 7% compared to last year. The advertising market has not become better in Q2 so let's say revenues are down by 10%. There are no signs of a recovery and revenues are likely to stay soft. Rogers will be under pressure to maintain their results so why would they increase payroll? They might look to reduce their payments to the Blue Jays by at least 10% to reflect the softer financial market.
But even bigger than the impact of the recession is the financial profile of the team. Since Rogers has owned the team attendance has been over 2 million per season but unless the Jays are consistently in first place attendance doesn't appear to change. When the Jays were in first place in April attendance did not improve.
So it is not unlikely that Rogers might have said, (1) the Jays cannot beat the Yankees or Red Sox; (2) the payroll change does not co-relate with attendance; (3) Rogers needs improved financial results from all its divisions; so (4) cut payroll, aim for .500 and lets make money off the $2 million who show up and the TV viewers.
3. Finally, as much as I love Halladay and the value he has delivered to the team, what are the prospects for a 32 year old pitcher with 2000 innings and a lot of heavy workload in his arm? While Doc has delivered tremendous value to the Jays, will he continue to deliver it trhough age 37? I don't know the answer to this question but I am sure the Jays have analysed it and have an opinion. Someone here could look at comparables and see how they held up through age 37.
Putting a kid with 88 innings above Low-A into the major league rotation on the road against the best offense in the league is ridiculous. There is no defense for it. This is a recipe for disaster. It might not be tonight, but what is the reward? He's not going to pitch them back into the race. This is a huge risk almost no reward proposition.
If you accept risking this kid's career so that you don't have to see Burres a few more times... that's so short-sighted it's hard to fathom. If you agree with this insanity, then JP Riccardi is exactly what you deserve as a General Manager. There is as much direction to this organization as a good Wakefield knuckleball.
I don't get the hand-wringing about Rzepczynski being ruined as a result of being rushed to the majors. It's not like he's fresh out of high school. He's 23, turns 24 in late August. He's older than Brett Cecil. He's 6 months younger than Jesse Litsch and Brad Mills. He's 10 months younger than Ricky Romero.
Maybe he's not ready yet. But he was pitching the best of the candidates for promotion, and that's what should count. If he has any future as a major league pitcher, he ought to be able to handle it if he has a rough outing.
It's a simple risk/reward proposition. There is substancial risk. There is almost no possible reward.
When you choose to take a substancial risk where there is almost no upside, you are making a stupid decision.
There is a good chance that this doesn't hurt him in the long term, but there is a chance that it does. Why risk the future of someone so promising?
Did rushing Jeremy Bonderman to the majors do him any good? How about Edwin Jackson, who needed to be traded for pennies on the dollar because he was rushed? Look at the Mariners who are determined to ruin Brandon Morrow with this type of move.
Look at it this way, if the best choice you have to start tonight is someone who spent all of 2008 in the Midwest League, that's an INDICTMENT of your general manager.
Mike - Of course you pay attention to a player's development path. Not everyone develops at the same rate nor along some predetermined schedule, nor are teams infallible in assessing how to bring them along after signing them . I suggest that it doesn't matter what the Blue Jays' intentions were two or three years ago insofar as how fast they were going to move Rzepczynski along. The fact is that his performance has warranted his being the next callup. My comments about his age were to underline that he's not a raw kid, in which case you want to be more careful.
To call the choice of tonight's starter an indictment of JP defies reason and good sense. Watch kid pitch. He could make you eat your words tonight.
Kid can throw a no hitter tonight. Won't change my mind.
Last I checked the Jays came into the season knowing that some of these pitchers were already hurt. Marcum, McGowan, Janssen were already on the shelf. Purcey and Romero both had the potential to not be able to stay in the rotation. They have had a few more injuries, but how is it not on Riccardi that his 'depth' like Burres is so terrible. Why hasn't he acquired anyone? '
They continue to cycle through pitchers who are not ready to start in the major leagues. Cecil, Mills, Ray... none of them ready.
How is it not on Riccardi to go out and find some pitchers, I didn't realize that teams weren't allowed to make transactions once the season starts. He had a rotation FILLED with risk coming into the season, and got caught not being prepared.
I think it's time to call the Mets and see if Jose Reyes is available. Start with Reyes and Nieves. If you can't get better than that, you don't make a deal. (That said, I hate the idea of trading Halladay)
Notwithstanding JP's lack of committment to trading Halladay, he, or someone else expensive has to go by next season. They have 8 players locked up for $81 million next year:
They can't move Wells or BJ (I guess buyouts are options?).
If they want to have a $80 Million dollar payroll next year, they likely will need to move two of the above listed players, with Doc, Rolen and Rios the most obvious choices.
I just now see John had actually posted that dilemma earlier on in the thread. Apologies for missing that, but my friend and I were discussing this days ago.
Anyhow, I'll just add that losing Halladay will hurt more than any Jay in my lifetime of fandom. I've watched my favourite players leave and be traded and watched the World Series teams leave in various moves, but none will hurt more than Halladay and I don't see anyone on the team taking over his place anytime soon.
I would think they should be looking at moving Rolen. He is having a great year despite the mediacal mess in his shoulder(s). Trade him before he breaks down again.
Bautista could cover for him for the rest of the year. Not as well of course, but they are not going to the World Series.
This frees up $11.6 for next year likely allows them to keep Halladay et al. With BJ gone in 2011, a trade of Rolen would allow them to keep Halladay in 2011 and beyond.
Of course, with Wells salary jumping to $26 in 2011, they will be committed to Rios and Wells for $38 Million for two guys, an one has to wonder whether there is any point to keeping Halladay. That would mean they are committed to $53 Million for 3 players, with $27 million for the other 21.
Ugh. Maybe they should be gearing up for 2015 when VW's salary is off the books.
If they want to have a $80 Million dollar payroll next year, they likely will need to move two of the above listed players
The longer I think about this, I see no other options. They are going to have to move Halladay before the start of next season. I never thought it would come to this, but there is no other way to field a roster that can even win 70 games.
Those that think this team can compete in 2010, please explain how they can even field a 25 man roster without raising the payroll to $110 million?
Wells, Rios and Ryan have no value. If you waive them they wouldn't even get claimed. Hill and Downs are 2 of your more valuable assets, if you have to trade them to save their paltry salaries, you may as well shut down Skydome. You might be able to move Rolen's money.
There is but two choices:
A: They can keep Halladay and trade Hill, Overbay, Frasor and Downs. There will be no money for a shortstop or catcher. The roster will be paper thin and they would be a Halladay injury away from 100 losses. You'd have $65 million tied up in Halladay/Ryan/Rios/Wells/Rolen. That would leave you maybe $20 million left for the other 23-27 roster spots. That would be an average of $800k for the rest of the roster.
B: They can trade Halladay and Overbay. Then they have Ryan/Rios/Wells/Downs/Hill/Rolen making $57 million and maybe $28 million left to pay the other 21-25 roster spots. That's an average of about $1.2 million each. You'd also have the bounty from the Halladay trade which hopefully would be something like Hughes/Austin Jackson or Bucholtz/Anderson. I don't think you could get Hughes/Montero from the Yankees, but if they called with that offer, I don't see how you turn it down.
I really don't see how this ends well. What scenario C even gets them over .500?
I don't know if they can move Rolen. I know they can't get anything back for him, I don't even know if they could get someone to take the money.
Minnesota would be the team that could use him. Maybe you could get a player back if you took the rest of Crede's money this year and paid half of Rolen's 2010 salary. Maybe the White Sox would do something? Beckham seems to be settling in.
The Yankees/Red Sox/Rays/Angels have no use at all for him. Texas can't make payroll as it is.
The Dodgers don't need any help, the Cubs can't use him, the Mets don't need him, San Fran is set and Atlanta nope. The other teams aren't spending that kind of coin. I guess Colorado in the NL hasn't gotten much out of third base.
Maybe there are two homes for Rolen. Minnesota and Colorado. I can't see either of them paying with a player and that salary.
I don't know if they can move Rolen. I know they can't get anything back for him, I don't even know if they could get someone to take the money.
He is hitting .330 with gold glove defence (assuming gold gloves are given for good defence). There will be a market for him.
A prorated salary for this year would be about $3.5 million. Maybe JP throws in an extra $4 million in for next year or takes someone off their hands with an unreasonable salary in order to get some prospects.
Actually Jim, option B doesn't seem that bad. Buchholz/Anderson would be a good package and since they're surplus to the prospect rich Redsox, you might be able to squeeze another slightly less outstanding prospect out of them. Your rotation of Romero/Marcum/Buchholz/Zip/Cecil would cost about $2m. Anderson slots in nicely at 1B. Snider in at LF. And your bullpen of pluggers and non-descripts gets your roster filled out (with BJ and Rolen coming off the books at the end of the year).
I sort of think trading (again, we shouldn't even be discussing this putricity) to Boston makes some sense. Your not figuring in challenging them for the division in 2010, but in 2011, who's better a 34 year-old Halladay or Buchholz/Anderson. Further, in 2011, Halladay might have left the Sox for free agency. If that were the case, you'd have actually weakened the Sox.
There will be a market for him.
Based on what? Your hope that there is? Which contending teams with money need a 3b? How many of them can risk taking on an 8 figure 2010 salary with a player who has a bit of a timebomb in his shoulder?
Name the specific teams that create the market for Rolen. It makes no sense to take back a bad contract for Rolen, that's the only reason you are trading him... to shed payroll, it's not as though they have a replacement.
You guys are severely underestimating just how inflexible teams are with their payrolls right now. It's going to be a TERRIBLE year to be a seller. Prospects have never had more value, the low revenue teams are willing to shed payroll and get little back in return, there aren't going to be many buyers - even fewer who will take on big salaries past the end of this season.
The standard for running a major league team can't be ... we have no idea if these guys are ready, so let's run them out there and see what happens.
I think one pretty simple criteria for ready is sustained success at the upper levels of the minor leagues. Price isn't ready, he didn't pitch that well in AAA the first half of the year and the Rays are being extremely cautious with his pitch counts. Another way to determine if a pitcher is ready is to break him in as a long man out of the pen.
The Rays made some huge errors this season. The Jackson trade looks horrendous as does the Hammel trade. The way they are handling Price is puzzleing. The Rays are a different case then the Blue Jays, there is potential reward for them. If the Jays had a legitimate shot to make the playoffs then starting Rzepczynski makes a lot more sense.
Zep looked very good tonight. It's still a dumb move. Maybe not as dumb as letting League come out of the dugout, but how could Cito Gaston be expected to figure out what Magpie published weeks ago.
If he pitches well until the end of the year, was it still a bad move?
Yes. If I win Powerball does that make lottery tickets a smart investment?
Certainly there are organizations that aren't run by buffons. The Blue Jays are not one of them. Unless you think that spending half your budget on two mediocre outfielders which forces you into a situation where you may have to trade your best player to a competitor in the division is the mark of a well run organization.
What is this ... year 8 of the 5 year plan? The situation in 2010 is worse then when Riccardi took over. There is no defense for the guy, there has never been a cohesive plan nor is there one now.
I'll leave it alone, but this team is dead and buried until 2015 if Riccardi is allowed to stay and try and dig out of this mess. Hopefully he at least extracts value for Roy. If he overplays his cards like the Padres on Peavy that will just make things worse.
You can follow Riccardi into the abyss. It's always something else when it's JP.
It's injuries. Or it's a signing dictated from above. Or this was a great move at the time. Or it was Tosca. Or it was Gibbons. Or it was Hillenbrand. Or it's the media. Or it's 2010 is the season was always the target. Soon it will be Cito. When he botches the Halladay trade whose fault will that be? ESPN and Fox?
After 8 years of mediocre baseball with every sign pointing to things actually getting WORSE, there is one constant: Riccardi. When is it Riccardi?
I just read the option rules. My understanding is that if Rzepczynski stays up for the rest of the season then no option years are burned since he was never optioned back to the minors. That would make his call-up more palatable and he wouldn't likely ever be a super-two for arbitration either.
