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As has so often been the case this year.


We knew the offense would come down eventually. And boy has it crashed hard (excluding last night's game). Fortunately, this team has a good enough rotation that a losing streak like last year's season-killer just isn't very likely.

Marcum has been the stopper this year, going 6-1 in games after the Jays lose. But what's nice about this year's team is that Marcum doesn't need to be the stopper. There are four guys in the rotation who can go out and dominate on any given day, and with Jesse Litsch back and Scrabble rounding into form in AAA, even the 5th spot looks promising. Let's take a look at the four guys who have consistently been in the rotation this year, with some funtistics courtesy of Fangraphs.


Player Season G IP K/9 BB/9 H/9 HR/9
BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR
Shaun Marcum 2010 14 92.1  
6.53 1.75 
8.21 0.78 0.282 73.60% 40.70% 7.00% 3.31 3.47 4.04 2.1
  Career 103 489 7.01 2.93 8.32 1.29 0.277 77.90% 40.50% 11.50% 3.83 4.56 4.41 5.9
Ricky Romero 2010 13 90.1 9.07 3.39 7.57 0.6 0.299 76.30% 55.60% 9.80% 3.29 3.16 3.21 2.4
  Career 42 268.1 7.78 3.79 8.99 0.8 0.317 75.70% 54.50% 11.90% 3.96 3.93 3.8 5.1
Brett Cecil 2010 10 64.1 6.58 2.24 6.72 0.7 0.242 71.90% 44.30% 6.70% 3.22 3.41 3.99 1.5
  Career 28 157.2 6.62 3.08 9.36 1.26 0.302 73.40% 43.30% 11.60% 4.45 4.57 4.4 1.9
Brandon Morrow 2010 13 70 10.29 4.89 8.36 0.64 0.338 67.30% 40.20% 7.40% 5.14 3.6 3.99 1.5
  Career 144 267.2 9.55 5.58 7.63 0.94 0.297 73.90% 36.60% 9.00% 4.27 4.31 4.53 2.7


As you can see, the highest xFIP among these four guys is Marcum's 4.04, and when you have four sub-4 ERA guys (in skill, not results), that is a great rotation. Although, "four sub-4 guys" is kind of cheating, since three of those four guys are basically right at the 4 mark.

The one who isn't is Ricky Romero, who has been the best of the Jays' starters this year. Romero has improved across the board: his strike-out rate is up by over a K an inning while his walk rate is down a little and his hit rate is down a lot. Romero also has by far the best GB% of these guys. He does it all, and looks like an excellent pitcher.

A brief aside: the "career" numbers listed above do in fact include 2010 numbers, so it's somewhat inaccurate to say, for example, that Romero's K-rate has increased by 1.3/9. In reality, it's increased by more than that; his pre-2010 K rate would be less than 7.78.

Marcum, the most experienced of the bunch, has been mostly the same guy as he was pre-injury, but has significantly improved his already-excellent control, which has brought his xFIP down around 4.

Cecil has been great for a second-year pitcher, especially of late, but has had a little BABIP luck and his 3.22 ERA will probably go up a bit. Still, his performance has been excellent, particularly his control. Cecil always posted good K-rates and GB rates in the minors, and if he can go back to that formula to a greater extent as he gains experience, he could be very good.

We all know the story with Morrow. When he can locate, he dominates. This year, his walk rate is down (though still very high at 4.89/9), and his xFIP indicates he's had some bad luck. Still, with a guy with Morrow's stuff, one is always left dreaming about what could be. Fortunately, Morrow's last few starts have shown that he may be starting to turn a corner. But even if he doesn't, a guy who posts an xFIP around 4 is a major league starter.
TDIB 15 June 2010: Marcum to the Rescue | 44 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 15 2010 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#217008) #

Cecil has been great for a second-year pitcher

2nd best OOPS in the AL. And with the weak hitting Padres up tonight, I fancy his chances to pass Cliff Lee for top spot.

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 15 2010 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#217009) #
I am not sure how much adjustment of the xFIP stat goes on.  Underlying it is an assumption that the pitcher will give up an average HR/Fly rate, but I am not sure whether average in-season HR/fly rates are used.  There has been a very large drop in the HR/fly rate this year, and so xFIP may be a less reliable indicator than usual this year. 
Matthew E - Tuesday, June 15 2010 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#217011) #
I have a question that maybe someone here knows the answer to.

Did the 1993 Blue Jays get to go to the White House to meet the President?

I have a vague memory that they didn't, and part of the subtext of this memory is that Clinton wasn't really interested in congratulating a Canadian team, although obviously that wasn't the reason given. I believe that the '92 team did meet Bush, but somehow I got the idea that the '93 team was shafted out of a presidential visit.

Can anyone confirm or deny?

Sano - Tuesday, June 15 2010 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#217015) #
John Lott reports that "Jays have signed 14 draft picks, including RHPs Sanchez & Syndergaard (both 1A's), 3B Hawkins (3) and OF Knecht (Toronto boy/3A pick)." From his Twitter feed.
MatO - Tuesday, June 15 2010 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#217017) #
AA mentioned this morning on the FAN that he expected that McGuire would not be a quick sign.  He'd likely wait and see what others were signing for.
Dave Rutt - Tuesday, June 15 2010 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#217019) #
There has been a very large drop in the HR/fly rate this year, and so xFIP may be a less reliable indicator than usual this year.

Good point, Mike. I'm not sure how much HR/fly rates vary over time, but assuming they do to some extent, it doesn't seem like it would be too hard to use some sort of constantly-updated weighted three-year average.
TamRa - Tuesday, June 15 2010 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#217020) #
is any source actually listing the 14? I don't think more than 7 or 8 have been rumored to this point.



uglyone - Tuesday, June 15 2010 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#217023) #

the boys at Scout came up with the release:

 

The TORONTO BLUE JAYS have signed 14 of their selections in 2010 First Year Player Draft, including 34th overall pick RHP AARON SANCHEZ, 38th overall RHP NOAH SYNDERGAARD and round 3A selection Canadian OF MARCUS KNECHT. A complete list follows.


RD              PICK    POS     PLAYER
1A              34      RHP     SANCHEZ, Aaron
1A              38      RHP     SYNDERGAARD, Noah
`       3                 93      3B      HAWKINS, Christopher
3A              113     OF      KNECHT, Marcus
19              576     RHP     GARRETT, Travis
23              696     OF      GOMEZ, Angel
24              726     OF      MELENDEZ, Ronnie
30              906     OF      MCQUAIL, Stephen
32              966     2B      FERMIN, Andy
34              1026    RHP     POWELL, Tyler
35              1056    RHP     BARNES, Daniel
40              1206    RHP     BERL, Brandon
42              1266    RHP     PERMISON, Drew
49              1476    2B      ABRAHAM, Matt

 

and I would add that Nicolino, Marze, and Permison have all agreed to deals, even if it's not official.

uglyone - Tuesday, June 15 2010 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#217024) #
I meant Murphy, not Permison, sorry.
Mick Doherty - Tuesday, June 15 2010 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#217029) #

It's okay, uglyone -- it's easy to make a Permison slip.

Thank yew. Thank yew verra much. I'll be here all week, try the veal.

Mick Doherty - Tuesday, June 15 2010 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#217030) #

And a note on the thread article ... that's a really fine rotation. But I wonder, seriously now, among my Yankee fan brethren and Red Sox nation nemeses ... if you asked even the most serious of those fans, the guys who can name all 25 guys on the roster plus 10 at AAA -- to name the Blue Jays rotation and offered $100 bill as a prize ... how many could do it? How many, seriously, could get even one?

Projected typical answer: Um, lessee ... Halladay not there any more, right? There's that kid, what'sisname, Merkin. Um, nope, I got nothin' ...

finch - Tuesday, June 15 2010 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#217031) #

Just pulled this off Baseball America:

Syndergaard signed for $600,000. That's less than MLB's 2009 slot recommendation of $858,600 for the No. 38 choice but more than the money he would have received if he has gone in the fourth or fifth round as expected.

Sanchez' bonus wasn't immediately available but we'll report it when we get it. Last year's slot recommendation at No. 34 was $918,000.

 

It's interesting that Syndergaard signed under slot. Hopefully that frees up some money to sign Dick Thon

John Northey - Tuesday, June 15 2010 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#217034) #
So for 2011 what would the rotation order be? Who are the Jays of the past that these guys make you think of (role on team that is)?

1) Romero - Key = stable solid ace
2) Marcum - Clancy = very good, more experience but not a ton of it
3) Cecil - Guzman = tons of talent, looks like an ace early on but something makes me feel like he could fade fast ala Guzman
4) Morrow - Hentgen = talented, could even have a Cy season in him, but ace days will probably be no more than one season

The 5th slot is a battle with Litsch having first shot at the Jim Gott type role (skilled, deserves more of a shot) followed by Rzep then by the legion of super-prospects.
westcoast dude - Wednesday, June 16 2010 @ 02:11 AM EDT (#217035) #

Interesting comps, John.  I see Cecil as Key, but Romero as the next Blue Jays Cy Young winner. I hope Kyle Drabek makes the rotation next season--if not this September-- as Litsch is merely average compared to the first four. Marcum is the heart and soul of the rotation and I love his style and attitude. Morrow is like A.J. Burnett but more poised. Staying with the Yankees comparisons, Sabathia may break down soon, he's gravitationally challenged.  Next season, the best rotation in baseball could be north of the border.   Eliminate E5, say goodbye to Overbay, move Bautista to third base, Wallace to first base, Snider to the outfield, keep Gonzo at shortstop, good things will happen.

The Yankees shelled Doc tonight. It is heretical to say this, but could it be that the Blue Jays dumped him just before his slow decline?  Was the SI cover the kiss of death a la Zack Greinke? Yeah, I know he pitched a perfect game last month, but I'm sorry, the Yankees just aren't that good.

 

slitheringslider - Wednesday, June 16 2010 @ 03:38 AM EDT (#217036) #
Morrow's stuff is way better than Hentgen's. At this stage of his career he is basically AJ Burnett, but if he can harness his stuff and throw strikes he can be a top 5 pitcher in baseball. IMO a better comp for Hentgen would be Marcum. Both are smart pitchers without fantastic stuff.
Chuck - Wednesday, June 16 2010 @ 06:20 AM EDT (#217037) #

but I'm sorry, the Yankees just aren't that good

#1 in offense, #3 in defense... sure seems pretty good

westcoast dude - Wednesday, June 16 2010 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#217038) #

Pretty good, I'll grant you, but not that good.  The Blue Jays waunder off into the wilderness of flyover country and end up in San Diego, where everyone on the Padres team has a ridiculous second or third generation baseball pedigree. Cecil makes one mistake or it might have been an entirely different result. Padres are going to the World Series, but let's see how Ricky Ro pitches in the rubber match, hopefully with Jose Molina behind the dish. I might have to take a page out of Mylegacy's book and uncork the Laphroaig for this one, straight up.

Damn Yankees are golden sombrero artists with a short right field porch and a jetstream.  Badaboom.

John Northey - Wednesday, June 16 2010 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#217039) #
Agreed, now that I think a bit more, AJ = Morrow seems a lot better comparison. Marcum = Hentgen also fits a bit better than Clancy, although Clancy was a guy who could be an ace but rarely was seen as one (near no-no, always very good but never seen as best around).

Fun to compare based on how a player 'feels' rather than straight stats. Gregg = Koch? Can save a lot but never feel secure when he is out there doing it.
bpoz - Wednesday, June 16 2010 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#217040) #
Wonderful, fun question John Northey. I am in my late 50s and have been a big bluejay fan from the beginning.

I must have misunderstood your question because I have to disagree with you on your comparisons.Their pitching stuff and inner character seems very different to me.

Key did not throw hard, incredible high curveball and ice water in his veins. Errors never bothered him. He just calmly got that 4th out.

Tom Cheek kept calling C Carpenter Clancy in a game he was doing. He thought they were close to identical. Clancy had trouble in the 1st two innings but then settled down. He was also very strong and could throw a lot of pitches without tiring. Incredible innings eater. I think Marcum's arm is fragile, he really tires at about 100 pitches.

Guzman throws harder than Cecil. I don't know exactly what variety of pitches he threw and he could be wild. IMO Cecil has the ability to learn new pitches fast, therefore I believe he will get a lot better. David Cone threw a lot of different pitches and from different arm angles.

Hentgen was intense, a lot of shouting and fist pump gestures. He also threw a lot of complete games. You could see his leadership.

Cecil believes in himself he said " this year I am not afraid of anyone" and I can see that.

Romero has great stuff but I want to see him dominate in a big game against NYY/TB/Bos. Guzman dominated in the 92 & 93 playoffs.

Marcum...I cannot think of any of our past greats that did not throw hard and dominate.

IMO Morrow is better than AJ Burnett. I want to give him more time. He is still learning, he is doing great but right now Molina deserves some credit too.
ayjackson - Wednesday, June 16 2010 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#217041) #

Apparently, both Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard signed for well below slot.  (Surprising in Sanchez' case.)

Sanchez for $775k ('09 slot - $918k); Snydergaard for $600k ('09 slot - $859k).

martinthegreat - Wednesday, June 16 2010 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#217042) #
The Yankees are "that" good. Have you seen their lineup? Without A-rod it's not quite as crazy but it's still fairly impressive, in the sense that having a near limitless budget can be impressive. You can predict a slow decline on one start anyways. Small sample size anyone?
lexomatic - Wednesday, June 16 2010 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#217043) #
look at cecil's babip. at .242 i expect some serious regression. into the still decent for 2nd year pitcher in al east 4.50 range
John Northey - Wednesday, June 16 2010 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#217047) #
That is a surprise as I thought Sanchez was supposed to be a tough sign. Guess this is what those extra scouts are for too - to find those guys who really, really want to get started on their careers thus saving tons of cash while getting high quality.

The more saved this way the more available for those really hard signs like Thon.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 16 2010 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#217048) #
Cecil's BABIP is .250.  His line-drive rate is low at 15% and his pop-up rate is high, so while the BABIP is a little lower than expected, it's not much.  His HR/fly rate is a little low too, but again not hugely so as HR/fly rates are down throughout the league.  Last night's grand slam was quite an equalizer, a ball that had it been a little to the right would probably have been a sac fly.

From a development perspective, the club has got to be happy that Cecil settled in after the grand slam and threw 6 innings so that the bullpen is in decent shape. 

ayjackson - Wednesday, June 16 2010 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#217049) #

Ben Badler at BA is reporting that not only are the Jays expected to sign Adonis Cardona out of Venezuela for $2.8m on July 2, but are co-favourites (with the Pirates) to sign top international pitcher, Luis Heredia, out of Mexico (when he turns 16 in August).

 

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 16 2010 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#217052) #
AY, that link is behind the subscriber wall.
ayjackson - Wednesday, June 16 2010 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#217059) #

Apologies, I didn't think I had logged in.

christaylor - Wednesday, June 16 2010 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#217068) #
Doc? Long slow decline? Surely you jest or at least didn't watch the start: he hung a couple of curveballs and in general his pitches other than his fastball weren't doing what he wanted them to do. It happens, even to Doc.

I know he seemed like he was invincible as a Jay but Doc would throw up a clunker of a start every once in awhile, one start against TB where he was bailed out by the offense after giving up a bunch of runs comes immediately to mind -- in June of 07, if memory serves (I actually memory didn't serve, I originally typed 08).

Other posters are bang on -- these Yankees ARE just that good. Last year, this and probably next year, are going to be remembered as teams will all-time great offenses. I really don't care how much money the team has to spend (Rogers has as much or more if they wanted to) the Yankees have made some really good decisions with their dollars. These aren't the Yankees of yester-year where bad money decisions (Pavano) were papered over with cash. They've spent a ton of cash but certainly have spent it wisely.
Matthew E - Wednesday, June 16 2010 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#217071) #

I really don't care how much money the team has to spend (Rogers has as much or more if they wanted to) the Yankees have made some really good decisions with their dollars.

Let's draw a distinction, though. The Jays have (theoretically) a lot of money to spend because Rogers has a lot of money to spend. The Yankees have a lot of money to spend because the Yankees have a lot of money to spend. You and I couldn't care less, but it's a big deal for the people who actually control this money, and rightly so.

Spifficus - Wednesday, June 16 2010 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#217081) #
Asher Wojciechowski has signed now, as well. No terms in the press release on the Jays' site.
TamRa - Wednesday, June 16 2010 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#217086) #
I really don't care how much money the team has to spend (Rogers has as much or more if they wanted to) the Yankees have made some really good decisions with their dollars.

And some bad ones. As has often been pointed out, the difference the Yankees' money makes is not that they can afford to spend it well, it's that they can afford to spend a lot of money poorly and still be able to do what they want.


Magpie - Wednesday, June 16 2010 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#217093) #
Marcum...I cannot think of any of our past greats that did not throw hard and dominate.

Doyle Alexander, of course. He even featured the same out pitch as Marcum (and it was Dour Doyle who taught the circle change to the rest of the staff, most notably Jimmy Key.)
bpoz - Thursday, June 17 2010 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#217117) #
Thanks Magpie.

Doyle Alexander always used to make me nervous until I read that he "planned his way" through the lineup. What this meant was that if a hitter was good he gave him nothing to hit and did not mind walking him. Then he would pick a guy that would swing at anything and get him to strike out. He also planned a double play ball. Somehow he always seemed to get through 7 innings giving up 2-4 runs and it looked to me like he was on the verge of being pulled.

Who did he fight with when he was a Yankee?

Jays traded him to Atlanta for Duane Ward. After a couple of years Atlanta traded him to Detroit for John Smoltz.

Speaking of trades... Let me word this properly. IF A TEAM WINS SOMETHING SIGNIFICANT IT DOES NOT MATTER WHAT THEY GIVE UP!!! Comments anyone?

Detroit traded Smoltz but made the 1987 post season.

Jays traded J Kent to the Mets for David Cone and won the 1992 World Series.

Jays traded Mike Young to Texas for Esteban Loiaza to help get into the post season. Did not work.

Expos traded Randy Johnston to Seattle for Mark Langston.

I agree with the Expos trade even though they did not win it all.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 17 2010 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#217118) #
MatO, do you have any pronunciation tips for "Wojciechowski"? "Asher Woj" would work for me, if it works for him. 
ayjackson - Thursday, June 17 2010 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#217119) #
Someone posted it the other day as Wo-chay-COV-ski I believe.
Gerry - Thursday, June 17 2010 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#217120) #
For the older bauxites, you could try the Barney Miller pronounciation.
uglyone - Thursday, June 17 2010 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#217126) #

 

go with WOJI - COWSKI

Mike Green - Thursday, June 17 2010 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#217127) #
It was "Detective Stan 'Wojo'  Wojciehowicz", according to wiki, Gerry.  Wojo would be good too, I guess, but I'll try to get it right.
Matthew E - Thursday, June 17 2010 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#217129) #

IF A TEAM WINS SOMETHING SIGNIFICANT IT DOES NOT MATTER WHAT THEY GIVE UP!!! Comments anyone?

I sort of agree. Flags fly forever, after all, but I wouldn't say that it doesn't matter what you give up. Sure it matters. But it could still be a worthwhile trade. Take the Kent/Cone trade. The Jays arguably got a World Series out of it, at the cost of a potential Hall of Famer in Kent. I think it was a good deal. I don't think that the loss of Kent is negligible.

Now go ask the Tigers if it was worth losing a potential Hall of Famer in Smoltz so that they could have the privilege of being bounced out of the ALCS in five games by the Twins. This is all hindsight, of course, but even so I don't think you can call Smoltz's value an insignificant detail.

What this tells me is that you shouldn't make any moves to put your team over the top until your team is legitimately ready to go over the top.

Gerry - Thursday, June 17 2010 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#217131) #
I guess I am an older bauxite, as proof my memory is going.  Thanks Mike.
92-93 - Thursday, June 17 2010 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#217134) #
If it's a worthwhile trade (in otherwords, the trade that puts you over the top and helps you win something significant like the World Series) it doesn't matter what you give up. The standard example is Hanley Ramirez, and I can't imagine many Red Sox fans are lamenting his loss in the acquisition of Josh Beckett that led to the 2007 WS championship.
Matthew E - Thursday, June 17 2010 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#217136) #
I don't think we're disagreeing about much, if anything. I'd evaluate all these one-more-piece trades about the same way that you would. I just think it's worth mentioning that a) there's a difference between the Red Sox organization with Ramirez and the Red Sox organization without Ramirez, and b) saying that you're happy to pay a price is not the same as saying that the price you're paying doesn't matter.
MatO - Thursday, June 17 2010 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#217152) #
Sorry.  I've been out most of the day.  Wojciechowski is properly pronounced Voy-che-hov-ski.  Actually much easier to pronounce for English speakers than Rzepczynski but I know nobody's going to pronounce it that way.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 17 2010 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#217154) #
Thanks, MatO. 
TDIB 15 June 2010: Marcum to the Rescue | 44 comments | Create New Account
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