For the first time in my entire life, I received nothing even remotly baseball-related for Christmas. Suckitudageness! Make me jealous, fellow Bauxites ...

I have my standing Christmas booty - I order my BA Almanac, their Prospect book and renew my subscription.

Face it - Santa's my bitch! Time for a Merry Christmas Scotch.

Actually, I don't usually get baseball-related stuff, but this year Santa, knowing about my Toronto Star 80-game pass, sent me a small pair of binoculars. I guess he knows about the view from the 500 level (and my unwillingness to buy new glasses because I'm cheap). Smart guy.

My son gave me the 2010 Strat-O-Matic cards (to be delivered in February). He is now a rival manager in our league but we excuse any perceived conflict of interest. There were a couple of baseball magazines in my stocking too, and someone gave me a little Fenway Park replica for some reason, and a squeezable "stress ball" baseball, apparently because a need was sensed.

Season's greetings and best wishes for 2011 to everyone here.

The missus came through for me again on the baseball front with Blue Jays gift cards.  I also put some Christmas money towards the purchase of two Toronto Star Passes.  April cannot get here soon enough!  Merry Christmas, everyone!  Especially you, Mick! ;D

"For the first time in my entire life, I received nothing even remotly baseball-related for Christmas. Suckitudageness! Make me jealous, fellow Bauxites ."

I almost never receive baseball themed gifts, but this year was different. I have never owned a Jays jersey - too expensive and I don't really look that great in them - but the first thing I saw when I opened my gift from my parents was a Jays jersey.

The second item was a little Jays cap with the words "Baby's First Hat". Today's our due date!

The last part of our gift is that my parents are taking my wife and I down to Minneapolis in May for two Jays games, gas and hotels included.

One the best gifts I've ever received.

Well Baseball America gave the jays a Christmas present this year, Elliot just tweeted that BA has ranked the Jays the 4th best farm system.

"Baseball America Prospect Handbook in Jan will rank Blue Jays as the 4th best farm system in MLB. They were 28th 13 months ago. #Jays"

It looks like AA was working over Christmas. 

ESPN is reporting that Octavio Dotel is close to a deal to be the Jays closer in 2010.

The deal would be almost identical to Dotel's $3.2 million base salary in 2010, with nearly half a million in performance-based incentives.

"We only need some minor details to complete the deal," the source said.

Dotel, 37, had 22 saves and a 4.08 ERA in time with Pittsburgh, Los Angeles and Colorado in 2010. He struck out 75 batters in 64 innings, while walking 32 and allowing 52 hits.

 

 

I feel exactly about this deal lke i felt about Gregg, Buck, and Gonzalez.

Given how those turned out, I'll reserve any negative comments. I'm neither enthused, nor displeased.

At least he's not such an "obvious" closer that if an internal candidate pushes for the job he can't be supplanted.

Dotel has kinda interesting splits:

Vs Lefties:    22.2 innings pitched, 28 hits, 18 walks, 19 SO's, and an era well over 5.00
Vs Righties:  41.2 innings pitched, 24 hits, 14 walks, 56 SO's and an era well below 3.00

37 years old, 6' 220 pounds - hope we don't face too many lefties in the ninth.

Dotel would make the Blue Jays a better team, so I'd be happy. He's also a possible Type A if he spends the full 2011 as TOR's closer.

I wonder if the BA ranking was made before or after the Lawrie trade.

Without knowing anything about Elias's ranking of Dotel in 2010, this looks like another potential Gregg-type move. Reliever pitches in Toronto for a year. Reliever signs elsewhere the following year as a Type B free agent. Toronto adds supp round pick. Worst case scenario is that the Jays shore up their 'pen for a year with no draft compensation (teams might not be interested in Dotel after 2011, or he might be a Type A, or the Jays might not want to risk offering him arb).

Santa brought me a lump of coal.  Again.  So he's been DFA'd.

Is Octavio Dotel fungible?  This is the most important aspect of his signing by far.  "Fungible" is a legal term used to describe goods which replace unavailable previously contracted-for goods. 

Doesn't really refer to people although in the case of relief pitchers, with a bit of a stretch, it could.  Assuming a relief pitcher is just a failed starter who is now part of the bullpen inventory, then he could possibly be viewed as "goods" or "product" like a lump of brainless flesh out there on the mound. 

This brainlessness could work well for all concerned, because everyone knows that pitchers can't think and pitch at the same time. 

 

Dotel would make the Blue Jays a better team, so I'd be happy. He's also a possible Type A if he spends the full 2011 as TOR's closer.

That would be BAD

His being a Type B would be GOOD.

"Fungible" is a legal term used to describe goods which replace unavailable previously contracted-for goods.

I probably shouldn't feed the troll... but... if you've been watching baseball long enough, as I recon you have, you'll know that it is dead simple to find some effective relief pitching, Frasor can do it, Purcey can do it. JP built effective 'pens in his sleep. That's all folks mean when people tend to use the technical, usually in the economic not legal sense, term fungible.

I'll add a caveat, which again all Jays fans who are long in the tooth enough to remember, will remember -- non-FA elite options: Henke/Ward/Eichhorn... et cetera. These guys aren't fungible but even still ought to be let walk if they become too expensive (see: Paplebon). There's no reason a priori why Roenike/Stewart/Purcey/Zep could not make up the core of an elite pen with the parts already in place.

If you think some of the long dollar contract that have been thrown at relief pitching this year are good ideas. I have another name from the Jays past that works as wonderful example: Jason Speier.

In fact, I'll go a little further -- when AA said in his recent FAN590 interview that he thought his biggest need was someone to pitch the 9th, I surely hope that he meant "someone who'll pitch the 9th and rack up enough saves to be a type B", the Gregg (and Olivo) moves are enough to make me think that this is what he mean. Because if he or any other Jays GM decides to pull a BJ Ryan again... well... it'll drive me to drink.

Dotel sounds like a good, although unspectacular pickup.  This is similar to the Gregg deal last year - veteran reliever who can close on a 1 year contract and potentially bring back further assets if he does well.

I wonder if teams would ever contract with a player on a one year contract that they won't offer arbitration if a player is a Type A in return for the player declining arbitration if they're a Type B player.

I think building a good bullpen is like investing. You want to buy hew to the strategy of buying low and selling high, and always be on the lookout for value. Downs is a perfect example. The Jays bought low (retrieving him from the scrap heap), and sold high (after several brilliant seasons, when Downs was a Type A, was in his mid-30s, while there was still a robust market for him). They did the same thing with Speier. Ditto Gregg, although with him it was more of a quick flip. With B.J. Ryan, they did the opposite: JP bought high on a 30-year-old reliever (a five-year, $45M contract?) with a herky-jerk delivery who was coming off two seasons (albeit outstanding ones) with fairly high inning totals.

christaylor, well put. Bravo. The only reasonable defense for bringing in a ninth-inning specialist to close -- like Dotel -- would be if the guys running the show believe the bullpen needs to have a clearly role-defined structure, starting from the top down. Dotel is a reasonable stopgap to do that. Paps at $10-12M? Not so much.

And just because I am overly ambitious where it comes to bloggy "correctness,"  let's fix one name error -- it's Justin (not Jason) Speier ... remember "Just Inspire"? :-)

Hello BumWino,
As usual your opinion makes interesting reading for me. The definition of "fungible" was informative, I did not know it was a legal term.

When you used the word "brainless" it sounded insulting but upon further thinking it could be reactionary, like Zep sticking out his bare hand to catch that ball which caused his injury, I have seen that reactionary move succeed many times. "No brainer" is another term that can be confusing, WAS choosing S Strasburg & B Harper would be an example, a pinch runner for L Overbay who was intentionally walked to set up a double play is considered a no brainer, the pick off throw is missed and the runner at third scores the winning run. With no pinch runner the same error causes the same winning result. Of course the pinch runner may get picked off and you win anyhow because the next batter gets a hit. No matter what you do a successful result makes a manager or player look smart.

Mr Wino I have concluded that you are very intelligent. Economics is an area where you understand more than I do, unfortunately da Box is not the place for it but at times various Governments make moves that they say are smart so I wonder if they all are just going through a string of bad luck. I wish I was smart enough to know.

Dotel really amounts to very little, one way or the other. 

Hi, bpoz

Hope you and yours had a great time this Christmas.

You're the only Bauxite who possesses a modicum of natural humility.  That's very refreshing on these baseball blogs.

Two brief points. 

I majored in economics and published business magazines for 25 years, but never came across the word "fungible" before visiting this site.  So I looked it up in the Oxford Concise.

Regarding our governments, most of the moves they make are designed to get themselves re-elected.  Exceptions to this are in the areas of national security (war, terrorism, etc.) and natural disasters (floods, forest fires, mine cave-ins, etc.), in which cases our federal and provincial governments of any political stripe have generally provided altruistic, effective leadership and have almost always proven to be up to the task.  Paradox of democracy, I guess.

Ooops. Mea culpa. Justin Speier... I fine myself one cuttlefish.

Rosenthal reports the Brewers signed Saito for what seems to be a similar amount to what was reported for Dotel.

I'd rather have him than Dotel personally.

Well, we don't really know if the Jays had the option of choosing.  But the age and injury history could have played a role if they did have the option.

It's also not hard to think the Brewers might be a more popular choice than the Jays right now if Saito had a choice between the two.

Alas, I am not an economist, nor did I study it in school. A humble English major...

However, I did used to research and write economics papers for university students. They paid me money for the service. That was probably wrong of me...

"That would be BAD...His being a Type B would be GOOD."

I remain unconvinced of this...Jason Frasor's (poor, IMO) decision doesn't prove anything to me.

Speaking of fungibility - a few weeks ago Mike Francessa of WFAN in NYC gave a lesson on it as it pertained to Cliff Lee.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2iFhZSy2Cno

TamRa, I believe you are saying or hinting that certain players are entitled to a position like Closer or CF due to past history or something like that and if they are removed from that position, negativity results in varying degrees.

I have often felt that to be the case. George Bell "felt insulted IMO" when asked to DH. Again IMO only, BJ Ryan may also have felt that he should be the closer even when he no longer was successful and it was time to try other players in the closer role. This concept, if it exists is too dangerous for the 2011 Jays bullpen.

The way I see the Jay's pen so far is:-
1) NO dominating players that are guaranteed a spot because we have no dominating relief pitchers by reputation.
2) Fraser & Dotel (if signed) have 2 of the 7 spots on the Opening day roster because of their expensive contracts. If there are 7 better pitchers than them, IMO their roles will change but they will still be on the team at the expense of 2 better pitchers than them.
3) M Wilner says that ST performance means little. He explained his reasoning. Like late in a game minor leaguers are playing. So sometimes a pitchers performance counts and at other times it does not.
4) The most important thing for me is that we have many unproven arms and it is possible that some of them will make a dramatic improvement to the level of dominance. If we get 2-3 of them then room in the pen has to be made, even at the risk of other players feeling slighted. Some of J Roenicke, S Richmond, D Purcey, R Lewis and possibly others could do that, in which case there will be problems regarding Fraser & Dotel.
I saw a problem last year for Purcey, in that as the 7th man in the pen he faced 1 batter between Aug 1-7 and K'd him, but he was rusty IMO. So IMO the 7th guy's record is not a true evaluation because he pitches in those kinds of unfair situations. Maybe W Abreu has such minor & ML results due to this kind of playing time.
So if Janssen goes on the DL for 3 weeks and R Lewis replaces him and does extremely well a tough decision has to be made.
So I am saying in a long worded way that, there can easily be 4 better pitchers than Fraser & Dotel in the pen and that making them the 5,6,7 guy will be a problem

Dear Mr. Magpie, don't ye fret now.

Having majored in economics, I don't really consider myself too, too terribly well-educated at all, I don't. 

Further, even economists, themselves, consider economics as a discipline to be dry as a popcorn fart.  Only thing in the world more boring is chartered accountancy. 

You were right to take money for those economics papers.  If you were internalizing as you went along, you can probably still remember the shape of the demand curve for premium single-malt scotch.  

Er, my friend, Mylegacy, knows it, too.  Whether or not he ever ploughed his way through Economics 101. 

Incidentally, I really liked all the English Lit profs I ever met.  Borderline wackos, often much more lefty than your garden-variety Commie.  I could really relate to those dudes!

Sir, speaking as a former English prof myownself, I can only conclude from your very, very troll-like ramblings that insults directed your way in response to such ramblings are, in fact, very much (even fungibly) called for.

Mick Doherty

Oh, come now, Mick, who are you trying to kid?  Everybody knows that they don't let the Irish teach English.  All your kind is good for is carrying around gigantic crosses, acting silly, and weeping in your whisky when someone starts quoting the eminently dreary Yeats.  I know.  I'm Irish, too.

Besides, you've got four mistakes in English in your run-on sentence.  First, "myownself" is not a word, just a term little kids use until they become comfortable with moi.  Second, there should be a comma between "ramblings" and "that".  Third, your use of "(even fungibly)" is nothing more than teasing nonsense.  Fourth, you ended your frickin' sentence with a frickin' preposition.  Geezus!!

 

Hi, bpoz...You're the only Bauxite who possesses a modicum of natural humility...

...christaylor

Really appreciated the uncalled for insult. Moron.

BW: As someone who had just managed to insult all but one of the participants on this site (most of whom keep their focus on baseball and not on themselves as individuals) its a bit rich telling someone else that his insult was uncalled for.

And as someone who has regaled us without end on your publishing career, your drinking habits, your academic degrees, and your personal peccadilloes too numerous to mention, its a bit rich setting yourself up as the judge of 'natural humility'.

As for your last three paragraphs - on the topic of baseball - you could actually be right.

I'd like to add: I just used the stock inter-phrase "don't feed the troll" which was intended as a descriptive term for the post, not as an insult to the poster.

As for the rest -- I'll leave the insult directed at me and hyperbole alone.

Forget the position that an expensive pen is never a good idea (probably true) and that (most) RP are fungible...it seems severely strange to want an expensive pen this year -- let the younger pitchers sort it out and find themselves during what is to be another building year. The 2011 pen will improve over 2010 pen via subtraction. Tallet himself was a -1.3 WAR player last year. A pitcher with an established 9th inning pedigree or no, the pen will be better. As you point out, the 2010 pen was mediocre, doesn't take much to improve over mediocre.

As for how it looks on paper, who cares, the games aren't played on paper. Even fantasy baseball tends not to be played on paper anymore.

Lots of educated people on this site... I myself am a Sociology and Political Science major, going to get a Masters in Sociology soon enough.

Of course, I would like to clarify this statement, by indicating my belief that "educated" is not necessarily synonymous with "intelligent," or that they are mutually exclusive. In short, I don't want to insult those who may not have a degree.

As for Dotel, a decent signing. Adds some bullpen stability, if nothing else. He's been an above-average pitcher for a while, with a few excellent years, but mostly in the solidly above average category. Control like Kevin Gregg, but more Ks. And yeah, we might get a type B pick. I would think he would possibly accept arbitration if he was a type-A, if only because of his age making it less likely that he would get a multi-year deal.

Mick D & BumWino, I am getting the impression that Irish parties are:-
1) Not tame.
2) The ebb and flow has massive peaks & valleys.
3) Not sure about this one, but I assume there is as much listening as talking at these parties.
4) I believe the Gents to be lively but how about the Lassies.
5) Is there a preferred drink. Irish wisky? What is it & what is it made of?

Two days past Christmas, New Year's not yet here, and the naughty/nice distinction seems nonetheless a very distant memory.  Pity.

I am already getting started on my baseball resolutions for 2011.  The first one will be to a little more patient in 2011 than I was in 2010.  I did a little better in 2010 than in 2009 in this regard, so it seems achievable.  I am (at least so far) not expecting much from the home nine next year.

bpoz

With regard to your interest in Irish parties, you only left out one important activity, the recreational fist fights.  It's very therapeutic.  Better than a trip to the psychiatrist.

Some people hold that the Irish are too dumb to feel pain; others have come to believe that the Irish frequently become too drunk to feel pain.  I've never given it much thought at all.  Just joined in the fray whenever the spirit moved me.

Chris, I didn't mean you actually were a moron, I just said it for effect.   You know, like you did with the "troll" stuff.

I just get frustrated with the direction the Jays have taken under Alex Anthopoulos, Paul and Nadir. 

If the 'effect' you're going for is to make regular readers tune out, good job.

that leaves Purcey--who faded badly over his last several Jays' appearances last season

That's a sloppy generalization more than an accurate reflection of his work, IMO. On June 25 Purcey gave up 2 runs in an appearance. From there two the end of the season, he only gave up as many as two runs in an appearance three times. In 25 appearances he gave up 11 earned runs, but 4 of those runs came in one appearance (of 1/3 of an inning) -take that away and his ERA for those remaining 24 appearances is 2.66

Eight of his last 11 appearances he allowed no runs charged to himself, and that's exactly as many as his first 11 appearances.

Yes, his two worst outings happened "down the stretch" - a month appart (Aug. 7 and Sept 8) but that's not the same as getting hit around regularly for a month or more. also, the horrible outing was 5 days before he went on the DL and the two MIGHT be related.

More Purcey goodness:

*His season ERA without that 1/3 of an inning = 2.67
*he inherited 19 runners, 3 of them scored. After 6/25 he inherited 16, and ONE of them scored.
*almost half of his walks on the season happened from that bad outing until the end of the season and, again, may be injury/layoff related.
*In 10 AB in save situations, he allowed ONE baserunner.
*those two very bad outings came in the ninth inning each time. Absent those two (1/3 IP 4 ER, 1 IP 3 ER) he gave up 2 ER in 9 IP pitching in the ninth inning.
*in 12.2 innings pitching in the 8th, he was unscored upon.

In fact - I've impressed myself so much I'm gonna have to go and write my one post about it. We may already have the best candidate to close.

With Stewart and Roenike in Vegas and Zep in the rotation, that leaves Purcey---to join Frasor, Camp, Janssen, a long-man (Litsch?) and who else?  Villeneuva and Dotel?

K. Let's start by assuming R-Ro/Morrow/Cecil/Drabek/Litsch are your starters, (I like Zep better but the whole seniority thing might get in the way) and Stewart is indeed in Vegas building up his innings - here's what you have left, as of this writing:

Frasor
Camp
Purcey
Janssen
Carlson
Villanueva
Zep
Roenicke
Richmond
Mills
Reyes
Ray
Lewis

I think you can build a quite competent pen there.The biggest worry, IMO, is if Purcey is your closer, then Zep is maybe your next best LH option. so instead of signing Dotel maybe if Purcey is gonna get a legit shot at closing you'd need a decent lefty instead.

But there are ways to come up with such a guy.

In any case, the Frasor of the last couple of years (138 ERA+), and the Camp of the last couple of years (132), and the Purcey of 2010 (113) is a FINE set of pitchers for the 8th  and 9th, Janssen (113) is a perfectly reasonable option for the 7th.

That's the heart of an effictive 'pen. Few teams have guys you'd fall in love with as their 5th or 6th option.

A Dotel/Purcey two-headed monster as closer could work well too. Not sure is Dotel is your man with Gonzalez, Ortiz, and Drew due up.

[Purcey's] horrible outing was 5 days before he went on the DL and the two MIGHT be related.

But not in that case. Purcey went on the DL after he sprained an ankle trying to step on first base while attempting to catch an awful toss from Adam Lind. Healthwise, he was fine until then.

Lots of educated people on this site...

Indeed.  I happen to be the King of Sweden myself.

...is not a word, just a term little kids use until they become comfortable with moi.

"Moi" is not a word either, it's french.

Not a great joke, but you work with what you've got.  Anyway, adding Dotel at a reasonable price would be another good move from the AA playbook.  I'm very much a fan of his style so far.  But to be fair what he's doing right now (ie signing guys on the cheap that could have trade value or turn into draft picks) is the easy part.

But not in that case. Purcey went on the DL after he sprained an ankle trying to step on first base while attempting to catch an awful toss from Adam Lind. Healthwise, he was fine until then.

Indeed. While i was writing for the blog i looked it up and found that out - but distracted myself before i came back here and corrected the record.

Still, I'm SLIGHTLY inclined to think the bad outing in September might have had to do with the lay off, but i don't think he really even needs that excuse. Two bad outings in a year, a month apart, isn't a trend.

TamRa, very good analysis on D Purcey. I think someone presented an analysis on all our pitchers, breaking down performance in different situations.

So Purcey let 3 of 19 inherited runners score, I suppose that is good. I suppose if you have 1 inherited runner at 1st with 2 outs & he scores, it counts the same as 1 inherited runner at 3rd with none out and he scores. Does not seem fair to me. But we have rules for this type of analysis,but I don't know what they are. If he scores on an error or take the sure out at 1st etc... he still counts. Bases loaded, 2 out and they all score is called bad, but bases loaded none out and 1 inherited runner scores then that is a good outing. Both outings look the same on the box score. This is deceiving. So once again TamRa, thanks for your valuable information.
You presented the idea of throwing out a relievers bad outing if it is occasional, I fully agree with this, especially since all kinds of good and bad outings do not appear in the commonly presented numbers.