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According to foxsports.com, the Blue Jays appear to have signed their new closer for 2011 as they have reportedly come to terms with right-handed reliever Octavio Dotel on a one-year deal plus an option.  A tip of the Jays graphite cap to Bauxite dan gordon for the heads-up!

Octavio Dotel spent time with Pittsburgh, the Los Angeles Dodgers, and Colorado in 2010.




Dotel has been in the majors since 1999 when he began his career with the New York Mets after signing with them as a free agent in 1993.  Dotel was actually a starter for the Mets as he went 8-3 with a 5.38 earned run average to help the Mets reach the National League Championship Series.  Despite giving up a run in the top of the 15th inning, he was the winning pitcher in Game 5 of the NLCS against the Atlanta Braves after Robin Ventura's infamous "grand slam single".  He was dealt to Houston with outfielder Roger Cedeno for lefty Mike Hampton and former Jays outfielder Derek Bell in the off-season.

A native of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic, Dotel spent four seasons with the Astros and proved his versatility in 2000 by making 16 starts and earning 16 saves after filling in for the injured Billy Wagner.  He stayed in the pen as a set-up man for Wagner and helped pitch the Astros to the 2001 playoffs.  He then asserted his dominance by leading National League relievers with 118 strikeouts in 2002.  Dotel also was among the six pitchers who no-hit the Yankees in 2003.  After posting 14 saves with Houston to start 2004, he was involved in a three-way trade that saw Carlos Beltran wind up in Houston, former Jays catcher John Buck land in Kansas City, and Dotel going to Oakland.  The 6-foot, 220 pound hurler nailed down another 22 saves for a 36 save season.  In 2005, he only earned 7 saves with the A's thanks to Tommy John elbow surgery.  He wound up with the New York Yankees in 2006 but struggled in 14 appearances with an ERA of 10.80.

Dotel reasserted himself in 2007 with Kansas City by earning 11 saves in 24 appearances but he was traded again at the July 31 deadline to Atlanta for fellow pitcher Kyle Davies.  Dotel's Braves career lasted all of nine appearances thanks to a shoulder strain.  In the off-season, he had to pack his bags again as he landed in the Windy City.  With the Chicago White Sox in 2008 and 2009, he had just one save but he made a combined 134 appearances and saw the post-season again in 2008.

Last season, Dotel was closing games for the Pittsburgh Pirates and nailed down 21 saves for the Bucs before he was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers July 31st for pitcher James McDonald and outfielder Andrew Lambo.  However, when the Dodgers fell out of the NL West race, he was sent packing to Colorado for minor league utilityman Anthony Jackson.  He earned one save with the Dodgers but none with the Rockies.  He lost his only decision in Denver and had an ERA of just over 5.00.

The 37 year-old Dotel has a career record of 49-43 with a 3.75 ERA and 105 saves.  He has struck out 10.9 batters per nine innings but has walked 4.1 batters for every nine frames.  His career WHIP is 1.256.   According to fangraphs.com, Dotel throws a fastball around 91-92 miles per hour with a slider around 81-82 MPH and the occasional changeup at 77-78 MPH. 

Toronto marks Dotel's 11th team in what will be his 13th major league season.  The Jays hope he can replace Kevin Gregg's 37 saves from last season but with a lot more efficiency and a little less excitement.  It will be interesting to see which uniform number Dotel winds up with.  He has worn #29 five times, #26 three times, #28 two times, #35 once, and #41 once.  Numbers 29, 26, and 41 are spoken for (Dustin McGowan, Adam Lind, Pat Hentgen) but 28 and 35 are now open with the departures of Shaun Marcum and Lyle Overbay.   It would be weird seeing someone wear 28 right after Marcum's departure but it wouldn't surprise me if that's the number Dotel chooses given his affinity for numbers in the 20's.
Jays Check In Dotel | 116 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mylegacy - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 01:32 AM EST (#228179) #
Pity the guy can't get lefties out.
92-93 - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 01:37 AM EST (#228180) #
From 2008-2010 lefties hit .272/.393/.531 vs. Dotel - let's hope Farrel uses him judiciously.
TamRa - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 01:46 AM EST (#228181) #
I can see his value (more so even when i figure that $2.5 mil i the cost of a type B draft pick in Alex's ind) but i really hope he's not the guy we expect to save 30-something games. I hope he's the insurance policy in case no one else proves able to.


brent - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 02:50 AM EST (#228182) #
I know most are concerned about who will be the closer. I'm more worried about who will be brought in for the high leverage situations in the 7th or 8th innings. Janssen and Frasor aren't good candidates for that, I think. Unless there are future signings, I would hope the manager will just play the platoon advantage out of the bullpen for optimum match ups.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 07:35 AM EST (#228183) #

A.A. must be trying his best to be a lottery protected draft pick in 2012.   The signing of anyone 35 or older, not named Roy Halladay or Mariano Rivera, smacks of desperation by any G.M.   This is just another J.P. and Frank Thomas signing example again.    

The Rajai Davis acquisition is an upgrade on Fred Lewis and DeWayne Wise.   It might make this team an 85-win team.   The acquistion of Carlos Villanueva for a P.T.B.N.L. (which might be getting more expensive) might make this a 85-win team.   In fact, nothing prior to this signing makes this team better than an 85-win team, maybe less. 

This signing might not make this even a 80-win team.   Anyone who considers this signing as making this team better losers any respect I previously had for them.

DRising - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 07:50 AM EST (#228184) #
I hope when it comes to closing games, the Jay's go with "Don't ask Dotel" policy despite the signing...
Nick Holmes - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 08:34 AM EST (#228185) #
I can't believe it took six whole posts to dust off that pun!
As mentioned upthread, I think how he's used will give us a good idea of the current Jays bullpen philosophy. Should make for some good debate.
Forkball - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 09:08 AM EST (#228186) #
A.A. must be trying his best to be a lottery protected draft pick in 2012.  

Sweet!  Baseball has a draft lottery now!

The signing of anyone 35 or older, not named Roy Halladay or Mariano Rivera, smacks of desperation by any G.M.   This is just another J.P. and Frank Thomas signing example again.   

I'm not sure how signing a decent reliever to a modest contract for one-year can be compared to signing a DH to an expensive two year contract with an easily vested third year (which they ultimately had the benching and releasing of Thomas to avoid paying).

The Jays are building for the long term.  AA has been saying that for 14 months or so now, and his actions point to that as well.  If they were playing to compete in 2011 they certainly wouldn't have traded Marcum for a minor league player not likely to even see Toronto before September.  So what do you do in the short term?  Fill in the holes with stop gap players that might have value for you down the road.  Like signing Alex Gonzalez for one year and flipping him for Escobar.  Or collecting a draft pick when Buck left after his one year contract.  Or collecting a draft pick when Gregg will leave after his one year contract.

The Dotel signing has very, very little to do with 2011.  Much like the Gonzalez, Buck and Gregg contracts had very, very little to do with 2010.  Sure they helped the team in 2010, but the Jays weren't winning anything important with or without them just like they aren't winning anything with or without Dotel in 2011. 

But now the Jays have a starting shortstop and two draft picks in the 45-60 range in what is said to be an exceptionally deep draft from the three 2010 signings.  Odds say that one of those two players is going to work out.  And any player that works out is giving you 6 years of a young player at discounted salaries (compared to FAs), with a few of those years likely in their prime.  The Dotel signing is the same thing; sure he may help the team in 2011, but he's more likely to help the team years from now if the Jays are able to get a draft pick for him or trade him for a prospect.  And if it doesn't work out all it costs is a little bit of money.  Virtually no risk, potential modest-to-high reward, and he fills a hole on the team in the present.

Works for me.
85bluejay - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 09:15 AM EST (#228187) #

Trading Gregg For Dotel,Supp. pick & 1 mil - interesting and a value decision - I believe the pick will be of much more

longterm value than either pitcher - If Dotel has a reasonable year he could be flipped or another pick - I like the way

AA is copying the Red Sox exploitation of the system to gain extra high draft picks  - this is a terrific way to help build

an excellent farm system. I don't think this will have much of an impact on the Jays season - of course, I said that

about Gonzalez,Gregg & Buck last winter. Perhaps against LH, Purcey will get to audition his ability as a closer. 

85bluejay - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 09:19 AM EST (#228188) #

Forkball,

Excellent Post

greenfrog - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 10:27 AM EST (#228189) #
Looks like a reasonable signing to me. I wonder about the draft pick, though. If Dotel regresses a bit this year (quite possible for a 37-year-old), wouldn't it be in his interest to accept arbitration, rather than hit the open market again? Unless he has a great year, how many teams will be willing to give a 38-year-old reliever more than a one-year, $4M contract (ie, the amount he might command in arbitration)?
Mick Doherty - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 10:30 AM EST (#228190) #
Years ago, I remember being amused by the then-record (held, if I recall, by  the old pitcher Bob Miiller) for "most teams played with" -- at the time 10. This is Dotel's 11th team -- I'm sure someone has more than that now, but have no idea how to look it up. Anyone know who holds the record and what the number is now?
Ryan Day - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 10:50 AM EST (#228191) #
Most Franchises Played For.

Matt Stairs, Ron Villone, and Mike Morgan share the lead with 12, so Dotel could take quite the lead if he plays for a few more years.
johnny was - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 11:05 AM EST (#228193) #
Stairs signed a minor league deal with the Nationals a few weeks back, so if he makes the team out of spring training and you consider the Expos and Nationals different teams, we've got a clear front-runner.
katman - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 11:06 AM EST (#228194) #

"Trading Gregg For Dotel,Supp. pick & 1 mil."

Absolutely nails the core of this signing. Dotel will be very much like Gregg in save situations... not expecting more efficiency, or fewer drama moments, and the lefty number are concerning. Wish we had signed Arthur Rhodes instead - better upside all around, incl. trade deadline stuff.

Let's hope Purcey continues to develop...

christaylor - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 11:25 AM EST (#228195) #
"Let's hope Purcey continues to develop..."

Other than the possible pick, that's one reason to like this signing -- Dotel will be very easy to throw in to a LOOGY (or loogy-type) role if Purcey takes a great leap forward.

Which do folks think is more likely that Dotel has more than 20 SV or Purcey more than 10? I think the latter... which could spell mighty good things for the way the 2012 pen shapes up. The team needs some cheap internal arms in the pen to step up if the window is going to open in 2012... in addition to Hill/Lind bouncing back with Lind finding a home at 1B, Lawrie forcing his way up to a call up, JPA being at least a league average C, Bautista not regressing substantially (and resigning), Drabek grabbing a starters job, Morrow taking the next step to becoming an elite pitcher. Snider breaking out.

Do I think an aggressive AA could have made 3-4 moves to put the 2011 Jays in a position of being a dark horse for a playoff spot sure... it would have required nabbing all of Greinke, Jenks, Beltre, re-signing Downs, keeping Marcum, and adding someone better than EE (Dunn). Could have worked, but no sense in pondering it now. AA has been consistent. This move fits.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 12:03 PM EST (#228196) #
I've always liked Purcey and remain optimistic, but it's hard to be too certain about him. He looked like he'd taken a big step forward with his control in 2008, but then he came back in 2009 and couldn't hit a morbidly obese hippo.

Of course, it's also tough to speculate on the bullpen without knowing much about Farrell. Does he want one closer, will he be situational, or will he go with whoever's hot? Does he favour a veteran presence or will he take chances with a younger, inexperienced reliever? How much is he going to emphasize L/R splits?

I suppose you could get some clues by analyzing Boston's bullpen usage, but that's still not the whole story.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 01:00 PM EST (#228197) #

So what do you do in the short term?

A.A. said he was going to improve the Bullpen, which in my humble opinion hasn't happened yet.   A.A. said he was going to improve our OBP, which hasn't happened yet.   If you disagree, you're deluded (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/deluded).

The Dotel signing has very, very little to do with 2011.

At this point, in-house talent sucks.   This means A.A.'s most likely Closer will be Jonathan Papelbon, this season or next. 

...I like the way AA is copying the Red Sox exploitation of the system to gain extra high draft picks...

Boston's exploitation of Draft Picks start with:

1) Not keeping Stud / high Type A Free Agents that want long-term contracts like Adrian Beltre.

2) Trading Mid-Season for Stud / high Type A Free Agents and playing them out of position so they won't accept arbitration like Billy Wagner.

Alex will never have a top Type A free Agent that let`s him sign 1ST Round Pick(s) and still have a top 16ish - 30ish pick.   So far, our Type As are so insignificant that we won`t have an extra 16-30 pick.   Jose Bautista having another monster year might give us a top Type A pick if we let him go, otherwise Type B is all we`ll get.

 

Forkball - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 01:23 PM EST (#228198) #
I wonder about the draft pick, though. If Dotel regresses a bit this year (quite possible for a 37-year-old), wouldn't it be in his interest to accept arbitration, rather than hit the open market again?

For Type B free agents the players have frequently agreed with the teams to decline arbitration if offered. 

I'm not crazy about this being allowed, but everyone has the same rules.  Frankly, they should just scrap this compensation nonsense altogether.
Mike Green - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 01:54 PM EST (#228199) #
Dotel's mug in that photo is worth at least 1.5 K/9IP. 
Chuck - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 02:00 PM EST (#228200) #

If you disagree, you're deluded  (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/deluded).

This is not an ESL site. The words you use are in most everyone's lexicon. Do you truly believe that a world like deluded is beyond most people's comprehension? 

Anyone who considers this signing as making this team better losers [sic] any respect I previously had for them.

And who exactly is it you purport to respect?

Original Ryan - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 02:29 PM EST (#228201) #
This means A.A.'s most likely Closer will be Jonathan Papelbon, this season or next.

I don't see how that could be considered the most likely scenario.  It could happen (anything is possible), but I haven't seen anything to indicate that the Blue Jays will actively pursue Papelbon if/when he becomes available.
92-93 - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 03:02 PM EST (#228202) #

A.A. said he was going to improve the Bullpen, which in my humble opinion hasn't happened yet.

Did he say this in reference to his current squad sans Gregg & Downs? If so, the signing of Dotel improved the bullpen. I have a hard time believing AA said he was looking to improve on the 2010 bullpen considering it was very possible 4 of the mainstays would be gone (Gregg, Downs, Frasor, and Tallet).

Dave Till - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 03:02 PM EST (#228203) #
I'm not too stressed out about this signing. He doesn't make a big dent in the budget, and he might be able to help in certain situations. Not sure about him as the closer, though - I hope that AA finds another pitcher or two for the bullpen. The Jays need a Plan B (and maybe Plans C, D and E) if Plan A doesn't work out. Fortunately, marginally competent relief pitchers are not hard to find.
85bluejay - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 04:06 PM EST (#228204) #

If you disagree, you're deluded

anyone who considers this signing as making this team better losers any respect I previously had for them.

Brilliant!! So, either posters agree with you or you will smite them with some derogatory remark - LMAO.

rtcaino - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 04:15 PM EST (#228205) #

Brilliant!! So, either posters agree with you or you will smite them with some derogatory remark - LMAO.

Well you guys can do what you want, but I ain't riskin gettin smitten.

CeeBee - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 05:39 PM EST (#228206) #
Nothing like a little humor to brighten up a dreary winter day. :)
Oxygen8 - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 05:43 PM EST (#228207) #
the more i look into the dotel deal the more i like it. it turns out that he had an oblique strain in spring training that had him somewhat rushed for opening day. his april numbers were inflated because of this and ballooned his overall numbers. if you look at may to august he had a whip of 1.07.

here's my support.

http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100315&content_id=8794690&vkey=news_pit&fext=.jsp&c_id=pit

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=doteloc01&year=2010&t=p#month

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NGQw0hU3tk&hd=1
Flex - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 06:04 PM EST (#228208) #
I guess there's no way to know how his lhb/rhb splits might have improved over the year, is there? His numbers might have improved because his team(s) started using him better.
Alex Obal - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 06:11 PM EST (#228209) #
Maybe the Jays can try to give him a changeup during the spring, hmm?
Oxygen8 - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 07:41 PM EST (#228210) #
monthly left/right splits as requested.

may whip rhb-0.78 lhb-1.20
june whip rhb- 0.50 lhb-2.31
july whip rhb-0.64 lhb-1.29
aug. whip rhb-0.95 lhb- 1.50

the rhb numbers are eye popping. outside a rough patch in june i can easily live with the lhb numbers considering how he does against righties.

mix in a manager that understands pitching and how to use guys effectively and it looks to me like some more AA magic.

fo your reference the links are for may to august. remember to throw out april because of the oblique strain and september, well, i'm a little exhausted with the game if my team isn't in it too!?!

enjoy!!!

http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_splits.jsp?playerID=136734&statType=2&splitSet=1&c_id=col&sitSplit1=5

http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_splits.jsp?playerID=136734&statType=2&splitSet=1&c_id=col&sitSplit1=6

http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_splits.jsp?playerID=136734&statType=2&splitSet=1&c_id=col&sitSplit1=7

http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_splits.jsp?playerID=136734&statType=2&splitSet=1&c_id=col&sitSplit1=8
bpoz - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 07:56 PM EST (#228211) #
92-93, You mentioned something like Gonzalez,Ortiz & Drew of BOS coming up to bat in the 9th. Sorry if I am wrong about my interpretation of what you said.

So if the 9th save situation means facing someones' tough LHBs, then most people feel that Dotel is at a disadvantage. Please correct any wrong facts or understandings by me.
SO regarding touch LHBs:-
1)Do we also have tough LHBs. Lind & Snider so far.
2)In 2010 how would Gregg do and did we use Downs instead because this is his strong suite. Was a combo used instead.
3) Assuming the 2010 & 2011 Jays manager knows these historical strengths & weaknesses relating to batter/pitcher. Is he allowed to use combo strategies or does he have to bring in HIS closer because not to do so is some how insulting, and this causes bigger problems in the clubhouse.
Did not rookie Timlin get the last out (Save) in the 1992 WS against Atlanta.

Maybe temps like Fraser & Dotel are just insurance for time until the elite talent is acquired.
Ozzie & Jenks, according to Jenks had a deteriorating relationship as the 2010 season came to its conclusion.
I feel that some kind of baseball etiquette exists regarding a struggling player.
Thomas - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 08:12 PM EST (#228212) #
Not sure about him as the closer, though - I hope that AA finds another pitcher or two for the bullpen.

I don't know, Dave. I think the bullpen, for better or worse, is probably nearly settled at this point.

There are six pitchers who are basically guaranteed spots in: Dotel, Frasor, Camp, Janssen, Villanueva and Purcey. The seventh spot is open, but the Jays have a plethora of candidates that include Carlson, Roenicke, Rommie Lewis, Abreu, Ray and Richmond. Plus, by the second half of the year, there may be candidates from the minors, most notably Farina. I expect Carlson's the favourite, but not guaranteed a spot in the same way the other six appear to be.

Now, there'll be injuries and maybe trades that necessitate using several of those other candidates, but I don't think the bullpen is particularly shallow. I'd be fine if the Jays spent the year figuring out exactly what the team has in Roenicke and whether Ray can be an effective middle reliever and so forth.

Flex - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 10:13 PM EST (#228213) #
Thanks, Oxygen8, that gives some useful perspective. He's not always terrible against Lefties. Combined with his RHB efficiency, that plays, I think.
Quwyetr - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 10:53 PM EST (#228214) #
I am with the majority here. This signing is very low risk, especially when you consider that at worst Dotel can be put into a LOOGY role quite effectively. Plus the possibility of a supplemental pick for him a year down the road, this looks like a pretty solid short term signing to me. It is not like he was signed to 3 years at 4 million per or anything like that, so I don't see how anyone can really be against this.
Quwyetr - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 11:12 PM EST (#228215) #
Correction to my post, I meant the righty equivalent of a LOOGY; a ROOGY if you will.
rtcaino - Wednesday, December 29 2010 @ 11:36 PM EST (#228216) #
Thanks, Oxygen8, that gives some useful perspective. He's not always terrible against Lefties. Combined with his RHB efficiency, that plays, I think.

I'm sure this was previously referenced: over the past three years, Lefties have 'slashed' .272/.393/.531/.924 verses Dr. Octavio. So perhaps he is not *always* terrible against Lefties... But he has predominately been so over the past 3 seasons.

In case anyone was wondering, .924 would have been the fifth highest OPS in MLB last year. Ya, that ignores splits, and park factors, and contains data from three seasons - just saying it is a high number.
rpriske - Thursday, December 30 2010 @ 09:00 AM EST (#228217) #

The way this offseason has felt to me (in relation to the bullpen) is:

Step 1: "We can do better than Gregg AND we get a draft pick if we let him go! How can we lose?"

Step 2: "Uh, wow. It seems that relievers are going for more money than they are really worth to us. It doesn't seem wise to blow a bunch of money to get a bullpen piece."

Step 3: "Well, apparently we CAN'T do better than Gregg. Oh well. We still get the draft pick and we can get someone at his level for less..."

Flex - Thursday, December 30 2010 @ 09:27 AM EST (#228219) #
Count Griffin as not a fan of this move. Given the way the bullpen offseason has unfolded, he thinks the Jays should re-sign Gregg.

http://bit.ly/eWnY0K
Shane - Thursday, December 30 2010 @ 12:48 PM EST (#228220) #

Mr. rpriske has summed up how i've viewed the whole offseason/looking @ '11 approach better than I could have - and i'm fine this AA approach. Though I assumed after all the highend talent free-agent relievers signed, AA and some other gm's would pick off a few good dollar/talent level lesser relievers too.

Note in the Richard Griffin column, this is apparently the first move AA has made that Griffin doesn't agree with saying: "The dollar amount is not important, but Dotel’s role is. If the Jays are bringing him in as a closer, which is what his agent suggested strongly to ESPN, then that’s a mistake by the formerly bulletproof Anthopoulos."

China fan - Thursday, December 30 2010 @ 01:19 PM EST (#228221) #

I've got to disagree with Griffin on this.  First, a comment by a player's agent is hardly a reliable way of predicting AA's plans for 2011.  An agent is not an objective source of information on what a team is planning to do on the field, especially when the agent has a financial interest at stake.  Anyway AA would never give an ironclad guarantee that someone is going to be the closer -- he would never tie his manager's hands in this way.  If Dotel becomes the closer, it will be because he earned the job at spring training and in the early weeks of the season.  Does Griffin already forget what happened in 2010, when the closer's job switched hands several times before Gregg won the job?  Anthopolous would be crazy to guarantee that Dotel will be the closer for 2011 without seeing how Frasor and Purcey perform in spring training and in the early weeks of the season.

Griffin further weakens his case with this sentence:  "The Red Sox with Jonathan Papelbon, Bobby Jenks and Daniel Bard are in a league of their own."   Well, in fact, Jenks had a worse WHIP than Dotel in 2010, and Papelbon's WHIP was only marginally better than Dotel.   If Griffin thinks that Papelbon and Jenks are two-thirds of a brilliant closer combination, why does he scoff at the Jays for acquiring a pitcher whose numbers are roughly the same as Papelbon and Jenks?

Finally, Griffin claims:  "The bullpen needs to be better than it was a year ago."  How does he know that it won't be better?  Tallet is gone (which is addition by subtraction).  Dotel is about as good as Gregg.  And for all we know, Villaneuva could be as good as Downs.  As for the rest of the bullpen, it's quite possible that Camp, Purcey, Janssen, Carlson and Frasor (or some combination thereof) could improve in 2011.  Or the addition of Zep or Richmond could improve the bullpen.  It's too early to assume that the bullpen will not improve.

And of course the bigger point is:  why does the bullpen need to be better anyway?   Given that the Jays have traded Marcum and seem to be perfectly content to go with hitters such as JPA, Encarnacion, Hill and Lind in 2011, it's pretty clear that this will be a rebuilding year, a year of experimenting with rookies and seeing whether key players can bounce back.  If it's a rebuilding year, why does the bullpen need to improve?

rtcaino - Thursday, December 30 2010 @ 01:44 PM EST (#228222) #

Entering a rebuilding season with a deep draft, Griff also appears to have ignored the supplemental pick angle.

uglyone - Thursday, December 30 2010 @ 02:56 PM EST (#228223) #
I like the Dotel signing, but I'd feel much better if it was paired with a Fuentes signing. That would at least indicate that Farrell is intent on exploiting those impressive R/L splits.
TamRa - Thursday, December 30 2010 @ 03:02 PM EST (#228224) #
"Count Griffin as..."

I count Griffin as a source of warm, fuzzy, feel-good stories about the good old days, or some players personal backstory (i.e. Snider's Mom)

And that's ALL I count Griffin...

earlweaverfan - Thursday, December 30 2010 @ 04:22 PM EST (#228225) #
I like the Dotel signing, but I'd feel much better if it was paired with a Fuentes signing. That would at least indicate that Farrell is intent on exploiting those impressive R/L splits.

Tamra (in her blog) mentions Purcey as an intriguing, left-handed, in-house option.  Meanwhile, the Jays found out last year that Gregg (even in what I expect was his career year) needed to be spelled off as the closer, in order not to get clobbered due to sending him out two days in a row.  What if Dotel gets the call in 9th innings when it is predominantly righties he must face, and Purcey when it is predominantly lefites?  Dotel will still get most of the save chances, thus preserving his shot at a B type FA status next off-season, and the Jays will get a chance to see Purcey's potential as the ultimate closer, for when Dotel takes off.

If Fuentes can command a multi-year expensive contract, he may not be the ideal, given that I still think that either Purcey or Stewart could become an excellent full-time closer, within the next 18 months.

uglyone - Thursday, December 30 2010 @ 05:18 PM EST (#228226) #
thing is, Purcey is the only lefty in the 'pen right now (with maybe Carlson or Mills filling in the last spot I guess).

I was pretty impressed with Purcey last year, so I'm fine with him getting late innings, even a shot at the closer's role.

But even if he did, I'd still like to see a lefty to complement Dotel in even a setup role.

Before the Marcum trade, I would have been fine with Rzep and Stewart filling out the 'pen because IMO both could be ace relievers, and soon.....but after the Marcum trade, I'd guess we're going to need both of them as starters for the time being, so we might want to go out and add one more vet reliever for the short term at least - and that should be a lefty specialist, IMO, even if it's a cheaper option than Fuentes.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, December 30 2010 @ 05:34 PM EST (#228227) #

    If it's a rebuilding year, why does the bullpen need to improve?

You must be joking, you don't read any entries not current with today's date?   Maybe you don't read anything you don't like, or maybe you have a memory problem?   Maybe, none of that.   Baltimore won't be better than Toronto, next year.   Tampa Bay is cutting payroll severely, and may not be finished yet.   Boston's acquisitions might get them into the Post-Season, but might not.   New York's top stars are getting older and some might even be showing it.   New York misses out on Lee, Greinke, Crawford and Pettitte still can't decide what his 38.5 year-old body can take (to make the start of the season, he should have started getting ready December 1).   Toronto has a chance to finish 2nd, possibly challenge for the Wild Card:

1) Romero, Morrow, Cecil should be good to great.   With the right two additions to the Starting Staff (I'd prefer Litsch and Rzepczynski - you need to find out what you've got before July 1), this team could challenge.

2) Lind, Hill should be better, especially Hill, with his contract, maybe even great.   Escobar is great and if he regains his power - WOW.

3) Bautista should have a big year (but we don't know how big), possibly even huge.   Wells is Wells.   He was healthy in 2010; should start the season healthy.   This is Snider's breakout year (or we'll regret not trading him).   Davis is an upgrade on Lewis and Wise, plus he has speed.

4) Arencibia breaks out, with Encarnacion hitting 30 + HR.

At the start of the 2010 season, too many had the team hard-pressed to avoid losing 100+ games.   In case no one noticed, they won 85 games, without a bonified Ace, with almost a revolving door at 5th Starter, with a Closer who couldn't win back-to-back or two out of three games in a series, with a bullpen that finished 10th out of 14 teams and lost 2 of their top 3 relievers to Free Agency, with Cito Gaston's strange Managing, with Adam Lind no longer hitting to all fields and walking less than normal, with Aaron Hill's offensive and defensive woe, with a team that didn't walk (23/24 in bases-on-balls) or steal bases (28/29 in stolen bases).

Some of the above is self-correcting (see bold hi-lighting), and some has been taken care of.   Someone said, if you're not prepared for life's experiences, you deserve to be left behind.  

greenfrog - Thursday, December 30 2010 @ 07:00 PM EST (#228228) #
"I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been." -Wayne Gretzky

I think this is more along the lines of AA's approach. Rightly or wrongly (I think rightly), AA has decided that the team as currently constituted isn't good enough to win (and/or be consistently competitive). So he's skating to where the puck is going to be. Which is why he needs players like Drabek and Lawrie (and draft-pick-producing players like Gregg/Buck/Olivo/Dotel), not Ramirez and Beltre.
Ryan Day - Thursday, December 30 2010 @ 07:18 PM EST (#228229) #
"In case no one noticed, they won 85 games, without a bonified Ace"

I wouldn't want our ace, bona fide or not, to get bonified. It sounds painful.
John Northey - Thursday, December 30 2010 @ 07:20 PM EST (#228230) #
I'm glad AA isn't seeing the jump to 85 wins as something to go nuts over (unlike the Laughs..er..Leafs).

Checking Jays history...
+10 wins from previous year has happened 8 times not counting last year. 1980 and 1982 are hard to mix in due to the strike year. That leaves us with 6 seasons plus 1982...

1982: a jump of 41 wins, but given how bad they were in 1981 they'd still have had a 20+ game jump if they played 162 in '81 (yes, they were that bad). 1983 saw a further jump of 11 wins, but still sub-90.

1983: a jump of 11 wins, the Jays stayed at 89 wins in 1984 before their big jump to 99 in 1985.

1985: jumped to 99 wins from 89. Dropped by 13 the next season as Jimy Williams took over.

1987: jumped to 97 wins from 86. Dropped by 9 the next year after the horrid mess with Bell to DH/etc.

1996: jumped to 74 wins, but was coming off a strike year (18 win jump). Climbed by just 2 the next year.

1998: jumped by 12 wins to a post-WS years peak of 88. Dropped by 4 the following year.

2005: jumped by 13 wins to climb to 80. Another 7 win jump the following year.

So the Jays, outside of 1981-1982-1983 have never had 2 straight 10+ game jumps and that took a horrible year (would've been over 100 losses) at the start to make it happen.

2011 is a 'lets hold the fort' year. The Jays should spend this year making sure they have the right kids and that the holes are really where they think they are before blowing the wad on fixing things. Yes, the Yankees/Red Sox/Rays all look open to being passed but the Rays could be a lot weaker in 2012 (if rookies who are given jobs don't lock it in, more vets will be let go) and the Yankees could easily make a major splash still ($200 million budgets do that) and I suspect the Red Sox will rebound in 2011.
Flex - Thursday, December 30 2010 @ 07:44 PM EST (#228231) #
Excellent analysis, as always John. I do worry that the expectations of the general populace are out of whack. The Star ran a poll recently in which they asked which Toronto team was likeliest to improve next season. The Jays were picked by an overwhelming margin. That reflects the positive atmosphere surrounding the team but I frankly don't see it happening. I worry a bit that if the team slumps to something under .500, which I think is possible and actually reasonable, the uneducated fan — the ones who fill the seats in waves — will stop coming at some point next year. Even though we know the team is headed in the right direction.

I suppose, though, that's not something I really should be worrying about. I should give my head a shake.
Original Ryan - Thursday, December 30 2010 @ 09:55 PM EST (#228232) #
I'm glad AA isn't seeing the jump to 85 wins as something to go nuts over (unlike the Laughs..er..Leafs).

Same here.  I know a lot of fans are disappointed that the Blue Jays didn't make a big splash this offseason, but ultimately AA has to do what he feels is best for the team long-term.  I just don't see the urgency to spend a bunch of money and maybe make a playoff run in 2011.  If AA does his job well, this team will be a contender for several years.  If using 2011 as a year to develop and acquire young players means that the Blue Jays will be better equipped to make a playoff run in future years, then I'm completely fine with that.

Shortsightedness was a hallmark of Gord Ash's failed tenure as G.M.  I really don't want to return to those days.
John Northey - Thursday, December 30 2010 @ 10:12 PM EST (#228233) #
The bandwagon fan tends to view things as 'what just happened' rather than 'what is likely to happen'. In Toronto it gets extreme with the Leaf addiction (they won a game, now they will break that 40+ year slump!).

I suspect fans would be more patient if there was a team that was doing well but the Raptors are doing horribly (11-20, but just 1 1/2 games out of a playoff slot, they play in the NL Central of the NBA world) and the Leafs are not a heck of a lot better at 13-19 (12 points out of playoffs thus actually in worse shape). The CFL/MLS/NLL are all specialized and not noticed by non-fans as a rule (I had to look up to see if the teams from Toronto are doing any good in those 3 as I had no idea how they were doing).

The Jays give fans hope for a really good team. Of the big 3 the Jays are the only ones to win it all in my lifetime (born in 1969) or even reach the finals. If MLB had a playoff structure ala the NBA/NHL the Jays would've been in the playoffs often (by 4 games last year) and things would be a lot different.

Jays standing for AL overall...
2010: 7th
2009: 11th (9 back of 8th place Tampa)
2008: 7th
2007: 7th
2006: 7th (kind of steady ain't they?)
2005: 8th (made it by 1 game)
2004: 12th (12 1/2 back)
2003: tied for 6th
2002: 8th (4 up on Cleveland)
2001: 8th (5 up)
2000: 7th
1999: 6th
1998: 5th (would've made it under the soon-to-be rules as 2nd WC)
1997: 11th (2 1/2 out)
1996: 12th (6 out)
1995: 13th (14 out)
1994: 6th (Texas would've been 11th but taken a slot as winner of the worst division of all-time in MLB, the 4 AL West teams in 1994 were the worst 4 in the AL thus Texas at 52-62 would've been in the playoffs if the strike didn't end it)

So, in the 17 seasons since the last WS win the Jays would've made the playoffs 12 times if the NHL/NBA system was in MLB rather than just 1 wild card. For comparison the Raptors have made the playoffs 5 times in their 16 seasons, and the Leafs in those past 17 years (lets make it 18 and skip this one) have made it 10 times (missed the last 5 in a row, likely to make it 6 straight).

Thus the Jays have been darn good vs the other 2 teams, but the system hasn't been on their side. Even with Bud's adjustment the Jays would've only made one playoff back in 1998. Of course, that team had a rotation of Clemens, Hentgen, Carpenter, Guzman, Williams with Escobar around also (plus Halladay breaking in that year) so it could've been a heck of a playoff and Clemens might have stuck around if the Jays were in the playoffs then.

Ah well. Could'a would'a should'a.
earlweaverfan - Thursday, December 30 2010 @ 10:13 PM EST (#228234) #
Excellent analysis, as always John. I do worry that the expectations of the general populace are out of whack. The Star ran a poll recently in which they asked which Toronto team was likeliest to improve next season. The Jays were picked by an overwhelming margin. That reflects the positive atmosphere surrounding the team but I frankly don't see it happening. I worry a bit that if the team slumps to something under .500, which I think is possible and actually reasonable, the uneducated fan — the ones who fill the seats in waves — will stop coming at some point next year. Even though we know the team is headed in the right direction.

I suppose, though, that's not something I really should be worrying about. I should give my head a shake.


Actually, Flex, the other Toronto teams could easily make that poll true by deteriorating even more next year than this.  Brian Burke, e.g., having played the short game that AA has steadfastly avoided, now finds himself in an ever-deepening hole.   He certainly has found out that if you play the short game and fail, even Leaf fans begin to get mad.  (Like the fall of the Berlin wall, this is an outcome I never expected to see in my lifetime.)

In any case, I am penciling in a modest gain of about 3-5 wins next season for the Jays mostly because of the AA acquisition that has received the least attention amidst all this fevered speculation, one named Farrell.  In part, because I like his background, because of the way he talks and carries himself, because he has picked a superb blend of old and new coaches, because of what the Red Sox people say about him, and because he seems to be a true partner to AA - an on-field/off-field combination of kindred spirits that will, I believe, pay real dividends from the get-go  I am afraid I lack statistical back-up for this, but I feel it in my bones.  (Of course, I must pray to the gods of player good health).

Will the fans understand what they are getting?  Will they be impatient at the level of a Bumwino, choosing not to attend any games until the team is ready to spend its way to glory?  That is an interesting question - really, any answer must depend on the capability known as "marketing".  (Richard S. S.:  almost any dictionary will give you a serviceable definition of 'marketing'). 

Of course, what needs to be marketed are the future benefits of an entirely new system - a system that delivers a contending team, year-in, year-out.  Richard, since you like quotations, try this one:  "It must remembered that there is nothing more difficult to plan, more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to manage, than the creation of a new system.  For the initiator has the enmity of all who would profit by the preservation of the old institutions and merely lukewarm defenders in those who would gain by the new ones."  Machiavelli treats you rather kindly there, wouldn't you say?

If I were the Jays, I would be giving the fans a rich stream of information over multiple media on the progress of the minor league teams and rising stars, so that they have real visibility on what lies ahead.  I would promote heavily the signing of all the draft picks in 2011.  If Snider, Escobar, Arencibia and Drabek start having great years, I would give them plenty of focus, too.  A youth movement is a very exciting thing, when people can see it unfold in front of them. In my opinion, the marketing of the Jays has been the weakest of the team's disciplines, and even there, I see evidence that AA and co. see the issue and are on it. 

Finally, I would manage every game one to make the most of the team the Jays have recently built - matching in-game strategy with exceptional young pitching, speed on the basepaths, and homerun after homerun.  What's not to like about that?

Stay tuned.
Richard S.S. - Friday, December 31 2010 @ 05:52 AM EST (#228235) #

...bona fide or not, to get bonified...

Thank you for the assist on the spelling of the word: bonafide.

...since you like quotations, try this one:...

Thank you.   Quotations can be found to fit any situation, depending on one's expertise.

2011 is a 'lets hold the fort' year.

Is 2012 a 'let's hold the fort' year?   Is 2013?  

I'm just going by what A.A. has said, ...making the Bullpen better, ...improving OBP, ...a D.H. who can take over at First Base if..., ...don't like Jose Molina as our # 1 catcher....   A lot of people have heard A.A. speak, and some can even afford tickets.   Tell me, is A.A. doing what he said, or is he, just possibly, lying?   Did he miss out on a Catcher or on Relievers, before John Buck's and Joaquin Benoit's expensive signings, by being preoccupied earlier?   Did he realize how difficult it can be to do almost anything?

 

brent - Friday, December 31 2010 @ 08:08 AM EST (#228236) #

I still think signing ManRam is the way to go on a building year. Just to have some extra excitement and buzz around the team would be welcome. Watching Escobar, bautista, Snider, Drabek was exciting. That's what the team needs to provide for the fans if they aren't going to be in the pennant race. (At least as long as Manny will sign a reasonable contract of course.)

China fan - Friday, December 31 2010 @ 09:37 AM EST (#228238) #

.....You must be joking, you don't read any entries not current with today's date?   Maybe you don't read anything you don't like, or maybe you have a memory problem?  

This is apparently an attack on me, since it quotes a previous post of mine.  But the attack is so incoherent, and filled with implausibilities, that I have difficulty in understanding the reasons for the smiting.  To quote a long-ago British politician:  It's like being savaged by a dead sheep.

Normally, to save myself time, I skip over Richard's comments.  But in order to avoid another smiting, I've pored over his latest comments very carefully, several times.  As near as I can figure out, he is convinced that Anthopolous is lying to us, and the Jays will be playoff contenders in 2011.   That's good news.   I'll try not to have another memory problem in the future.

rtcaino - Friday, December 31 2010 @ 10:05 AM EST (#228241) #

choosing not to attend any games until the team is ready to spend its way to glory? 

Or until the Rogers Center is ready to waive it's corking fee.

earlweaverfan - Friday, December 31 2010 @ 02:59 PM EST (#228244) #

Or until the Rogers Center is ready to waive it's corking fee.

http://lsr.mysurvey.com/wix/p796380904.aspx

I recently received this link to an online survey of Jays fans that many of you might be interested in.

It gives you the chance to provide your input on a whole host of diimensions of likes and dislikes about the Jays and the at-the-stadium experience.  In my own responses, I gave this great prominence as something that impedes my attending as often as I would like.

Let's all be sure to provide that input!


 

smcs - Friday, December 31 2010 @ 03:34 PM EST (#228245) #
Did he miss out on a Catcher or on Relievers, before John Buck's and Joaquin Benoit's expensive signings, by being preoccupied earlier?   Did he realize how difficult it can be to do almost anything?

I think he has been very clear on the fact that he believes that building through free agency is not the way to go.  You build a core and push it over the top with that one free agent that might need to be overpaid.  Drafting, developing and trades are the way to get value.  Especially if the team is operating on a budget.  I think other GMs have become more wary of trading with him, but I know I have seen it reported that AA has talked to every GM and it is pretty much a safe bet to assume that anybody on the market, or talked about as being possibly available, AA has done his due diligence and found out the cost.  This offseason, the Jays have been in on Justin Upton, Mark Reynolds and Zack Grienke and have acquired Brett Lawrie.  I think he is acutely aware of how difficult it is to get moves done, so he has become very open to 3 and 4 team trades.  Look at the Halladay trade.  He had a limited number of teams he could talk to, and even further limited in who could meet the requirements.  I guarantee that he found out in those negotiations that Brandon Morrow was on the block and that the Mariners needed bullpen help because they thought they were close (I can't remember if that deal was done at the same time or shortly after the Doc trade).  I guarantee as soon as he realized that the Phils were not upgrading Michael Taylor to Domonic Brown or Anthony Gose, he was on the phone trying to turn Taylor around.  He is still kicking himself over not getting Aroldis Chapman and probably a whole host of other things that could not be done and we do not know about.

One thing I am certain of with AA is that he has at least kicked the tires and inquired and gave an honest look at everything in the hopes that something will help his team.  I believe that he has a natural work ethic and drive that most people (myself included) do not have.  Under his watch, I would never ever ever expect something like Wells for Sirotka.  When it comes to the free agency market, he has a philosophy of either getting out in front of the market, or waiting until after and he would rather be a year short than a year long.  The Buck, Gregg and Gonzalez signings are all reminiscent of the Cat and SS Loogy signings of years past that paid off for the Jays.
bpoz - Friday, December 31 2010 @ 04:11 PM EST (#228246) #
Happy New Year Everyone!!!

It seems us Bauxites don't always agree with each other.

I Know That We Live In A Democracy. But about 20 years ago while working as an unimportant clerk in an office in a vote or opinion of 10 to 1, I realized that if the 1 belonged to the BOSS then it won 1 to 0.

It seems AA has that 1 vote.

To Richard SS:-
1) You constantly suggest moves that will cost Big $ or highly regarded prospects. AA has done little of that. But you continue... So I admire your Passion,Patience and Persistence.
2) You are correct about there being a small window of opportunity in 2011 if things break Right for the Jays and Wrong for the competition. Would a 20% probability be reasonable? AND would that mean winning a playoff spot with under 95 wins, say 92.
3) I anoint you as MY leader in suggesting the Finishing Touch Moves as soon as we win about 93+ games in a season. I still hold to the 1-0 vote concept. You may lose out on the 2011 window, but I like your/my chances on the after 93+ win window.
On the OBP & Running improvements...I have no clue.

But the Bullpen...BOS looks pretty good...But how about the CWS No Jenks but M Thornton, S Santos, J Crain and C Sale looks V Good to me and it seems at a reasonable cost. Somehow an opportunity arose and young C Sale & sort of young S Santos, both power arms ARRIVED.

For the Jays Bullpen to become elite our youngsters have to do the same as the CWS. There was opportunity in 2010, Camp grabbed it but no youngster did. In 2011 I see bullpen opportunity again. We have many arms & can add more. AA & Farrell have player development skills so I expect success, maybe 6 but more likely 4 young success stories. I consider Fraser, Dotel & Camp as good but not elite relievers so similar performances are a reasonable expectation from a few of our youngsters. But the youngsters have to go beyond them and I see them as capable.

Mick Doherty - Friday, December 31 2010 @ 05:48 PM EST (#228247) #

or is he, just possibly, lying? 

Not necessarily in this or any specific case.  but generally, I hope he's at leastt good and practiced at that skill. A good and effective GM is as good and convincing a bluffer as the best card sharp ...

John Northey - Friday, December 31 2010 @ 10:51 PM EST (#228248) #
I'd love to see ManRam signed for 2011, on a one year with option contract. He wouldn't be blocking anyone, he'd provide a ton of offense and entertainment while costing nothing but cash.

Of course, any signing that won't cost a pick or anyone in the system and isn't for more than a year (plus options) is good to me. Assuming he doesn't sign a sub-700 OPS guy to replace a regular who is 25 or less.
92-93 - Saturday, January 01 2011 @ 07:35 AM EST (#228249) #
Derrek Lee on a 1 year deal for 8-10m is a nice addition for the Orioles. It shouldn't come as a surprise if BAL has the type of season TOR had in 2010. Roberts-Jones-Markakis-Lee-Wieters-Reynolds-Scott-Hardy-Reimold/Pie is a solid lineup, and there's enough talent between Matusz-Guthrie-Bergesen-Tillman-Arrieta-Britton and Uehara-MGonzalez-JJohnson to put together a formidable pitching staff. Matusz' 2010 2nd half under Showalter was ridiculous.
John Northey - Saturday, January 01 2011 @ 11:47 AM EST (#228251) #
2011 could be a 'all above 500' year for the AL east. If Tampa dumps enough players they could even do the first to worst torture without dropping below 500.
Mike Green - Saturday, January 01 2011 @ 12:45 PM EST (#228252) #
What 92-93 said.  The O's are playing to win in 2011.  It was a bit of a surprise that they didn't do so in the 2010 off-season.

They went 34-23 under Showalter at the end of last year, and they are a lot better now than they were.  It wouldn't shock me if they emerged suddenly as the Rays did several years ago when they had that great off-season.
Gwyn - Saturday, January 01 2011 @ 12:49 PM EST (#228253) #
2) You are correct about there being a small window of opportunity in 2011 if things break Right for the Jays and Wrong for the competition. Would a 20% probability be reasonable? AND would that mean winning a playoff spot with under 95 wins, say 92

In the last ten years 94 wins was the minimum needed for a playoff spot in the AL East ( and that only happened once). I don't see 92 being enough.
Craig B - Saturday, January 01 2011 @ 02:42 PM EST (#228256) #
Honestly? I'd be much more concerned about using Dotel as a late-inning reliever 15 years ago. These are the days of three-man-plus-a-catcher AL benches, and it's exceedingly rare for more than one spare to hit lefty. Used judiciously, Dotel's a pretty solid pickup.
SJE - Saturday, January 01 2011 @ 06:09 PM EST (#228257) #
Windows of opportunity opening and closing. Hope and a prayer: if the stars line up. Come I hope AA isnt operating under those terms, in fact he has stated numerous times that if you build a championship organization properly the window to win never closes. He also stated that he will never make a short term move that will jeopordize that future of the club. He wants to operate almost in a vacuum, not worrying what the opposition is doing or what his own payroll is at the present. Alot of questions have to be addressed, most of which have been already stated numerous times on every baseball blog. I believe alot of these could have been answered last year but because of the managerial situation the win-loss had more importance. Jays sign Dotel and everybody is talking about opportunities lost. Some suggest surrendering draft picks by signing type A relievers and one paper even suggested giving a comp. pick by bringing Gregg back. Toronto already has a professional sports teams that trades draft picks away while trying to build a championship team. How that going.
Mylegacy - Saturday, January 01 2011 @ 06:27 PM EST (#228258) #
Dotel is an OK to OK+ pick up. The guy's not elite - but he murders righties and it's the teams responsibility to limit the opportunity for lefties to murder him. Farrell is an ex-pitching coach - he'll handle it.

And now for something completely different: there is absolutely NO indication that the Jays have any interest whatsoever in Beltre - ipso facto - they MUST be stalking him. But - I think not. If Lawrie can play 3rd (hell who knows if Lawrie can actually play anywhere) he'll be there in 2012 - with Sweeney etal ready for a look in 2014 or so. But this mess at 3rd and in the field (where does Jose the Beast-ista play) can be fixed AA's way by getting Rasmus, Upton, Wright or some other young(ish) stud - at which point all else falls into place. I still think it might happen.

Mick Doherty - Saturday, January 01 2011 @ 11:25 PM EST (#228261) #

Rasmus I can see. though I doubt it. Upton, highly unlidely. Wright - no fracking way unless you give up WAY too much, and maybe not then. The Mets organization never had an even decent (possible All-Star)  third baseman until Howard Johnson, more than a quarter century  after they formed. Wright is their first bona fide stud at the position, and he's massively fan-popular in New York. He's as close to untouchable as anyone the Mets have had since Tom Seaver.

Who was, of course, traded  for a return the Mets likely regret to this day (the "headliners"  as I recall were Pat Zachry, Doug Flynn, Dan Norman and Steve Henderson) --- the Metsies aren't trading Wright for less than, say, Bautista,, a stud SP and four legitimate  prospects.

please note, I am NOT saying he is WORTH that ... just that the Mets won't move him.

John Northey - Sunday, January 02 2011 @ 01:09 AM EST (#228262) #
What did it take to win the AL East or get the wildcard since the wildcard came to exist?

2010: 96, 95 wins
2009: 103, 95
2008: 97, 95
2007: 96, 94
2006: 97, 95
2005: 95, 95
2004: 101, 98
2003: 101, 95
2002: 103, 99
2001: 95, 102 (West had 2 100 game winners)
2000: 87, 91 (talk about a window! Jays only 4 1/2 out)
1999: 98, 94
1998: 114, 92
1997: 98, 96
1996: 92, 88
1995: 97, 89 (adjusted to 162 game schedule)
1994: 100, 95 (adjusted to 162 game schedule)

So to get a window of opportunity where less than 94 wins is required you have to go back to 2000, 1998, 1996 or 1995. 4 times in the past 17 years a team from the east could sneak in with less than 94 wins.

So, given how rare it is to jump by 10 games two years in a row and given a big part of the Jays core is young pitching how much would you bet on either the Yanks & Red Sox & Tampa all collapsing AND the Jays improving by enough to make this work?

If Baltimore really thinks they can win the East in 2011 then all the more power to them. Lets hope they do some stupid things and trade their top prospects or lose a few draft picks in the process as the odds are even slimmer for them (trying to climb from 66 wins in 2010 and 4 straight sub-70 win seasons).
TamRa - Sunday, January 02 2011 @ 02:26 AM EST (#228263) #
I think the Rays WILL fall below the Jays this year, and the Red Sox will be the best team in the league. We don't need "odds" for both those to happen.

what we DO need is for the Yankees to be unexpectedly worse, and for no team in any other division to be better than the jays and that latter is where the odds come in. If you default, for the sake of argument, that the Twins and the Rangers repeat as division winners, then the Jays have to not only be better than NY - and anything can happen to one team in any given year - but also better than the Angels, A's, and White Sox at least.

It could happen - but you don't go all in on that possibility now. If we're in good shape in July then maybe you spend some chips on seizing the "window"

I, for one, don't put too much stock in the "consecutive 10 win leap" thing. just case a thing rarely happened in the past has no bearing on the present - but on the other hand, i don't think the team is remotely 10 wins better than it was last year - and i think the same 25 players as last year might not win 85 again. Or they might.

In any case, I don't see the makings of a 90+ win team here. and I DID see the 2010 results coming (though not HOW they came about f course)so I'm not just being a pessimist when I say that.



92-93 - Sunday, January 02 2011 @ 06:33 AM EST (#228264) #
As I have been saying all offseason regarding Beltre - there is no reason not to be pursuing him. He doesn't block anybody (please nobody mention Lawrie, someone who has never played an inning at 3B, as being blocked), he provides tremendous defensive value (mitigating the long term risk if his bat falls off), and the team can afford to heavily front-load a contract for him in a market that doesn't appear to have too many fits for him. The Blue Jays have had so many draft picks the last 2 years and will again this year that I really don't want to hear how acquiring Beltre would be a Leafs-like move of trading your draft picks away too early in a rebuilding process because you got excited - Losing the #21 pick when you pick 5 times in the top 80 anyway really isn't that big a deal, provided you keep the same draft budget. As mentioned, the upside of a Beltre deal is that he adds talent to your roster and makes you feel more comfortable moving talent like a Snider, Bautista, Hill, and/or Yunel if the right opportunity presents itself to improve. When you can add a 31 year old superstar defensive 3B with a career .290/.341/.496 line away from Safeco & Chavez Ravine for nothing but money, why do so many people seem to be against it?
Marc Hulet - Sunday, January 02 2011 @ 09:46 AM EST (#228265) #

My concern with signing Beltre would be A) He's entering his decline years (aged 32 in 2011) and will require a 4-5 year contract, and B) His two best years (5.0+ WAR) have both come in his free agent years. Taking out those two seasons, he is - at best - a 3.5-4.0 WAR player, which is taking his glove into consideration. That means he'll likely provide value of about $10-$13 million a season. The only impacting factor could be his time in Seattle; it's hard to know exactly how much playing there impacted his offensive numbers (His home/road splits over his career in Seattle were mixed).

 

rtcaino - Sunday, January 02 2011 @ 12:38 PM EST (#228266) #
He also, ahem, costs a first round pick and potentially blocks a top prospect in the near term.

Sorry, just not sure those considerations should be disregarded at this point.

Mick Doherty - Sunday, January 02 2011 @ 02:39 PM EST (#228267) #

 (please nobody mention Lawrie, someone who has never played an inning at 3B, as being blocked)

Lawrie doesn't have to PLAY third to be blocked by someone like Beltre. If the idea -- which I have heard but have no opinion on -- would be to move Hill to third when Lawrie is read to play second, same deal happens. (This is just an example and I have no opinion on it -- there are probably 10 other scenarios we could wrangle up in the same way.)

85bluejay - Sunday, January 02 2011 @ 03:42 PM EST (#228268) #

I would be Shocked & Confused if the Jays signed Beltre - The Marcum trade indicated to me that 2011 would be

another building year for the Jays and a Beltre signing is a win now move IMO - the back end of the Beltre contract is

likely to be a drag, so you're signing Beltre with the hope of winning now - Also, I think the draft pick is a significant

consideration and should be IMO. I'm out on signing Beltre - Now, an argument could have been made of keeping

Marcum and signing Dunn & Beltre and going for it, but that's gone with the wind. I'm happy with the offseason so

far & if we could acquire Alex Gordon cheaply, then terrific. 

 

Wishing all Bauxites all the best for the new year - Though I'm not  especially religious or superstitious,

I'm approaching 2011 with a bit of trepidation because 2010 was such a terrific year for myself in virtually every

way and so I'm thinking there must be a payback coming (hopefully NOT!) 

SJE - Sunday, January 02 2011 @ 08:07 PM EST (#228270) #
I agree with 85Blue Jay.  AA  has stated numerous times that he is building  an organization where the opportunity to win never closes. I am not surprised  or disappointed by the moves made or not made by AA this offseason. Sure the Jays could sign Beltre and Sorianno. Keep Marcum and sign him to an extension. Extend Jose Bautista. Pick up all the options on Aaron Hill and go for it now. Sounds to me a little bit like when we signed Burnett and Ryan and losing draft picks. You better not miss when do this. Result a depleted farm system and bunch of bad contracts. In my opinion , JP biggest mistake was jumping off his infamous 5 year plan to a win it now program. Remember when Hall of Fame general manager Pat Gillicks nickname was `Stand Pat`.
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, January 02 2011 @ 08:37 PM EST (#228271) #
There is absolutely no chance that the Jays are going to give up their first round 2011 draft pick, plus $80-100 million for 5/6 years for a guy heading into his mid-30's, who has a couple of career years in his contract years. None whatsoever. It would be sheer madness.


On the other hand, the Rangers' taking him will mean the Red Sox get yet another first round pick to go with the Tigers' first round pick for V-Mart. Their pick that aggravates me the most though, is the supplemental they get for Felipe Lopez. Jason Arnold anyone?

SJE - Sunday, January 02 2011 @ 08:41 PM EST (#228272) #
Unless I am wrong this will help the compensation the Jays will recieve for Scott Downs since the Angels will not be signing Beltre. Hopefully somebody besides the Angels signs Soriano.
Mick Doherty - Sunday, January 02 2011 @ 08:50 PM EST (#228273) #

Widely reported around DFW today that Beltre signing was a done deal.

Has not happened, probably won't happen, says Jon Daniels.

Original Ryan - Sunday, January 02 2011 @ 09:07 PM EST (#228274) #
I don't see the point of the Blue Jays signing Beltre.  He doesn't turn this team into a playoff contender; he's not the type of player who would bring a significant number of fans out to the ballpark; he's likely on the downside of his career; and while he might not block anyone in 2011 or 2012, he might block someone in 2013 and beyond when he's potentially a lesser player.  The Blue Jays would be able to say that they signed a big free agent this offseason, but that's about it.

Whether a contract is front-loaded or back-loaded is largely irrelevant (assuming the years and dollars are roughly the same, and after adjusting for the time value of money).
bpoz - Monday, January 03 2011 @ 10:46 AM EST (#228277) #
Well things seem to be slow in Jays Land. Maybe it is the lull before the storm.

So TamRa you say you saw the 2010 Jays good results. That was excellent vision.

I decided on 88 wins in 2010 and here is my thought process.
1) I just cannot predict a losing season for my Jays so I start off with 82. Then I threw in some wishful thinking and decided I liked 86, a little more wishful thinking got me to 88 wins.
2) But I did some analysis and evaluation of the team and decided.
a) S Marcum would have scar tissue issues after the TJ. Tallet would start and get maybe 10 wins with about 170+ IP. Morrow should start in AA because it is too big a risk of failure by learning in the Majors. So not much positives here.
b) Romero would get 17 wins as an improving young pitcher. I expected contributions from Cecil, Zep, Mills, Litch & Richmond because we were loaded with quality SP arms.
c) I liked the manager and believe in him. He said that we could have about 8 guys hit 20 HR. I always saw him as classy and so if he says something clearly then he believes it and I believe him. So I expected a strong offense led by Hill & Lind, breakout by Snider and comeback by Wells & EE. This is what most of my wishful thinking was based on. Oh yes Overbay actually performed as I expected.
d) I expected AA to trade any veteran that was having a good year at the July 31 deadline. Replacements could have come from the farm in JPA & various relief pitchers, but the team would have been weakened. IMO Y Escobar fell in his lap so he did it. Nothing good enough for AA was offered for Buck, Gregg, Fraser & Downs so he kept them for the extra draft picks, so now he can gamble on A Sanchez type of upside.
e) I expected some kind of innings limit on every SP but Romero.

I don't know how to judge defense and a bull pen. I still don't know how our 2010 defense was. I was sure 1 pitcher would have a great or career year, but IMO it did not happen, Camp was My biggest and only positive surprise. I liked Janssen's year coming off the shoulder surgery, all I was hoping for was a healthy 2010 for him so that he would contribute BIG in 2011.
So based on that personal analysis I will always pick a wins number based on my optimistic gut.
bmac - Monday, January 03 2011 @ 12:41 PM EST (#228280) #

Very interesting article on the relative value of long term contracts.

 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/03/sports/baseball/03score.html

 

Richard S.S. - Monday, January 03 2011 @ 12:41 PM EST (#228281) #

I'm not happy with Jose Molina being our Backup Catcher.   I'm really not happy, if for any reason, he becomes our #1 Catcher.   Unless A.A. has any surprises here, that's what we'll get.   My preference would have been to sign Russell Martin     (hint).   Oh yeah, he's a good catcher,too.

I like the signing of Edwin Encarnacion (even though he play only 2 games at 1st Base, ever) because I think he's hitting 30+ HR this year.   As the insurance policy for Adam Lind's inability / difficulty to play 1st Base, it really sucks.

Signing Octavio Dotel surprised me.   My preference as Reliever / Closer was Jesse Crain     (hint).   Young enough to be worth a chance.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see what A.A. does next.                                                                    

Original Ryan - Monday, January 03 2011 @ 02:04 PM EST (#228284) #
While I'm not a big fan of Jose Molina, I don't think his presence on the roster is a problem.  Most teams would be in trouble if their starting catcher had to be replaced with their backup, so Toronto is certainly not unique in that regard.  Further, if J.P. Arencibia went down with an injury or didn't work out, AA could make a mid-season acquisition for a catcher.  It's not something that necessarily needs to be addressed now.

I like Jesse Crain and I'd have been happy if the Blue Jays had signed him, but he's from Canada in the same way that Alex Rios is from Alabama or Bruce Bochy is from France -- it's where he was born but he grew up elsewhere.
92-93 - Monday, January 03 2011 @ 02:11 PM EST (#228286) #
The only reason a team should care what passport a player carries is when it comes to determining whether the listed age is accurate or not. I'm happy the Blue Jays aren't targeting players because they are Canadian, and hope that wasn't a factor in moving Marcum for Lawrie.

I suspect the majority of people who would be against a Beltre signing would be in favour of spending half of the entire contract on an unknown international FA prospect they have never seen play once. People would have been ecstatic to see AA spend 30m on Chapman's signing bonus, but 60m on Beltre would be a travesty and a sign of AA jumping the gun. It's very confusing, and I'm still waiting for someone to explain to me why they would have a problem with Rogers spending more money to field a better team. It's like people don't want this team to get better lest it hurts their chances of competing for the playoffs in this magical 2014-2015 window.
Original Ryan - Monday, January 03 2011 @ 02:41 PM EST (#228288) #
It's very confusing, and I'm still waiting for someone to explain to me why they would have a problem with Rogers spending more money to field a better team.

I'd be happy to see Rogers spend money to make the team better.  I just don't think Beltre is the right guy to spend that money on.
Mike Green - Monday, January 03 2011 @ 03:17 PM EST (#228289) #
I agree, OR.  I don't think that Beltre is a good investment.  I do think that Orlando Hudson and Derrek Lee were, at the contracted salaries. 
TamRa - Monday, January 03 2011 @ 03:25 PM EST (#228290) #
I think - whatever one's view of the Beltre idea - that the supposition that it's a "win now" move is incorrect.

Beltre wants, it seems, at least five years. That is for his age 32-36 seasons.

This for a guy who's defensive value is one of the 2 or 3 best in the game, and who's offense over the last seven years rates a 116 OPS+

His 162 game averages over that time are 40 doubles, 29 homers, 98 RBI, and an .821 OPS

And since 2002, he's missed a significant portion of the season to injuries ONCE.


Now, for comparison - Scott rolen. Yes, rolen was a considerably better hitter over the seven seasons preceeding his age 32 season

Let me interrupt myself here, just because I find it interesting, to show you the 162 game average for each player:

Beltre on top, Rolen on the bottom:

689 - 634 - 181 - 40 - 2 - 29 -- 98 - 10 - 46 - 105 - .284 - .335 - .486 - .821
688 - 594 - 171 - 43 - 4 - 30 - 115 - 10 - 76 - 109 - .287 - .374 - .523 - .897

It's amazing to me that in the same number of plate appearances, 6 more XBH and 30 more walks could create such a difference in OPS. Anyway, the major difference between the two on offense over the heart of their career (in terms of production) is one more walk a week

Rolen however was more consistant.

On defense, however, they are much the same guy.

the point of this illustration is the common assumption is that Beltre is in the "decline phase" of his career, and Rolen is a handy example of a comperable player who is four years older (i.e. deep into that five year contract that's being suggested)

On defense, Rolen is not noticeably less proficent than he was at 31. Nor has he been at any point over the past four years.

I think the same can be confidently predicted re Beltre. Offensively, Rolen is down marginally, but despite the complaints from jays' fans in the unfortunate dog days of 2008, he's far from a burden offensively. Precise prediction in this case are silly, but if Beltre slipped to a comperable degree, he'd still be a somewhat above average hitter. Rolen's 7 yar average OPS+ was 131 and at 35 it was 129. Beltre's 7 year average was 116. Even if it drops to 110 or so, with that glove, he has a lot of value.

Now - will he have 15 mil or 16 or whatever he'd be making that year in value? Abstractly, no, but in the FA market of 2014 - quite possibly.

But that's not the point - will a 3B who is somewhat above average on offense with premium defense at a premium position make a significant contribution to a hoped for contending team?

Damn straight he will. And THAT is what we are worried about.

The simple fact is, either we're being told the truth that rogers will spend whatever it takes - in which case paying Beltre 5 mi more than he's worth in 2015 is irrelevant - or we're being lied to in which case we're not likely to ever contend anyway. But whatever his contract, it's not at all irrational to assume that even a somewhat declined Beltre will be a fine contributor to a presumed contender in 2012, 2013 and beyond.

Furthermore - what's your alternative? Where are the stud 3B prospects in our own system? The best hope kids down there will NOT be contributing at that level during the window we presume. Even lawrie, who will quite possible be a considerably better hitter than Beltre will never field remotely in his class.

Where are the stud 3B prospects we might trade for?

We could move Escobar over there - but who among us confidently predicts his offense will be even that good in 3-4 years? it's POSSIBLE but...

Barring a pipe dream about trading for, say, Zimmerman - what can we do that can reasonably be expected to provide premium 3B defense in 2,3,4,5 years, while hitting say 110 (OPS+) or better?

I don't see it.

Part of how you calculate the "worth" of a cost is not JUST an abstract "all things being equal" calculation, but the scarcity of the commodity in the market. with that factored in, no, $15 mil is not an astonishingly high price to pay for the set of goods called Adrian Beltre - either now, or in 2015.


IMHO.


92-93 - Monday, January 03 2011 @ 03:36 PM EST (#228291) #
Derrek Lee at around 9m was a good investment in a market that paid Encarnacion 2.5m with a team friendly option? For those crying for fiscal responsibility when it comes to Beltre, I beg to differ, as much as I'd rather have Lee than EE. Good talent like Beltre or Lee costs money, but you can't tell me Lee is anymore worth his contract than Beltre will be his when you consider this year's FA market. It's important to remember that Lee is a 35 year old coming off his worst season, whereas Beltre is a 32 year old coming off one of his best - there isn't much historical evidence to expect that to reverse, ignoring the fountain of youth 35 year olds have seemingly found over the last 10-15 years.
Mike Green - Monday, January 03 2011 @ 04:01 PM EST (#228293) #
Lee's is a 1 year contract for apparently $8 million.  Any reasonable projection system will have him hitting somewhere between his level prior to 2010 and his 2010 year (which was not by any means a collapse).  He remains an average defender at first base, and the club needs one of those. 

Beltre is looking at 5 years plus.  He has had precisely two good offensive years in his career,  and is a very good defender.  The likelihood is that he will be an average defender at 35 and a below average (or worse) hitter.  You do not want to be on the hook for $13 million or something like that for that kind of money.  Good clubs which spend money, like the Red Sox, try to avoid doing things like this (which is why they let Beltre go and acquired Gonzalez in the first place).   

92-93 - Monday, January 03 2011 @ 04:26 PM EST (#228296) #
Your approval of Lee @ 10m confuses me considering your stance on paying similar dollars to Manny Ramirez. The reasons you gave about a Lee deal being good are the same ones that led me to say I'd give Manny 20m on a 1 year deal, to which you responded he might get 500k. If we are throwing dollars at 1 year deals, why not get the better hitter? You're that desperate for average 1B defense?

The Lee deal is good in the context of one year signings never being a bad thing, but in terms of market value it's a stretch to say the Orioles are coming out ahead here. For the record I was a big advocate of one year deals prior to the 2010 season as well when Beeston decided it was time to take another step back instead of pushing forward till at least the trade deadline and re-evaluating from there. The Brandon Webbs & Derrek Lees are out there every year if you want to make your team better - the Blue Jays chose not to this offseason.
Mike Green - Monday, January 03 2011 @ 04:39 PM EST (#228297) #
Sorry.  I read that Lee's contract was reportedly for $8 million.  Every time you post, 92-93, the figure goes up by $1 million.  Obviously, if the figure is $12 million instead of $8 million, it's not as good a contract. As for Manny Ramirez at $20 million- why would anyone do that? The best case scenario is that he has a Thome-style resurgence.  Even that aint worth anything like $20 million.

mathesond - Monday, January 03 2011 @ 04:40 PM EST (#228298) #
I, for one, enjoy reading Tamra's posts, both here and at her blog. I find them informative and reasoned, even if I don't agree with all her conclusions. They certainly are a refreshing change of pace from most posts I read, here and elsewhere, and they are a big reason why I check on this site 4-5 times a day in winter.

92-93 - Monday, January 03 2011 @ 04:52 PM EST (#228300) #
Sorry for the lack of preciseness - in my world "around 9" is close to 10, but you're correct I should have been clearer.

Presumably one would sign Manny @ 20m for the same reason you'd sign Lee @ 10m - it's just money, it's a one year deal, and the player can significantly improve your lineup. If I said 15m instead of 20m, would that make it any easier to stomach? Or are you arguing that Manny doesn't represent a better offensive option than Lee? The 20m is a fabricated figure, but I've yet to hear you even say you'd give Manny 10m. Knowing your feelings on Lee, that makes no sense to me.

(And really - if the market for Manny is nowhere near 10m, what the hell is AA waiting for to sign him?)
earlweaverfan - Monday, January 03 2011 @ 05:18 PM EST (#228301) #
This year I have been following the off-season more closely than ever before, so I have a question that stems from that learning curve.  What happens when a FA way-overprices himself in the market, or when there just aren't any more teams looking for someone at their position, once the music stops playing?  What do they do?  What do their agents (Boras especially) do?

Help me by looking at some prime current examples.  Let's begin with the free agents who are expecting big, multi-year packages, but who are just way, too expensive in total dollars, number of years and the price of a first-round draft pick:
  • Rafael Soriano would only accept a chance to be a closer, am I right?  So, if Boston, Los Angeles Angels, New York, Texas, maybe Philadelphia (pre-Lee) and Chicago White Sox are the teams that really could afford him if they wanted him, but are all either well equipped with closers or have spent all their budget, or both - how does he land safely?  Tampa is unlikely to take him back, even at a much smaller price, because they just don't want to spend the money
  • Adrian Beltre is expecting an even longer, more expensive package, yet I don't really see a place where his desires can be met by a team with a sufficient (remaining) budget and who have such a strong need for a 3B - other than Toronto, and I am betting that Toronto has no interest in giving up the draft pick.  LA is dubious about any more big deals; Texas has an expensive 3B-man already and sounds unlikely, Oakland is not in the game, and Boston might have gone for him at a much smaller package, but they have now cast their lot elsewhere
Meanwhile, there are also some mid-range pitchers who might reasonably be expecting to win 3-year deals, but the dance is almost over and there does not seem to be a deal they are interested in, e.g.:  Gregg, Fuentes, and Pavano.  How do they end up making anything like their targeted packages?

Where do people imagine that they will end up?


Mike Green - Monday, January 03 2011 @ 05:27 PM EST (#228303) #
If the club was playing to win in 2011 (and this would be a reasonable thing to do), you could do worse than signing Ramirez to fill the Thome role.  The Twins signed Thome for $1.5 million last year, and if you spent $2-$3 million this year for Ramirez, that would be OK.  The difference between Ramirez and Lee is that Lee has a defined role where he can contribute quite a bit (everyday first baseman), whereas Ramirez is (if all goes well) a DH/5th outfielder and maybe gives you 350 good at-bats.  It is unlikely that Ramirez is a better DH option than Lind against RHP at this stage in their careers and the club is committed to Lind anyway. 

I have said before that spending money in an effort to win in 2011 would have been reasonable, but then you wouldn't trade Marcum for Lawrie if that is what you were trying to do.   



Gerry - Monday, January 03 2011 @ 05:45 PM EST (#228304) #
The job of backup catcher for the Jays in 2011 includes two major responsibilities, play 40 games and mentor JP Arencibia.  Not all catchers are good mentors to younger players.  I assume Molina is and that is why he is on the 2011 roster.
Spifficus - Monday, January 03 2011 @ 05:58 PM EST (#228306) #
Manny didn't sign his last contract until the beginning of spring training, when it was widely accepted that he had only one suitor. I don't know why he'd go with a different approach this time. That time, he seemed to have a number in his head, and didn't budge until the market moved towards him. I can't see it being any different this time. Dollar-for-dollar, it'd actually be a tough call between him and Lee for me, considering Lee can still play 1b well, can take the field more often, and provide about as much power without any of the Mannyisms. The OBP and avg are tough to say no to, though...

As for Beltre, $60M seems quite low in this market. $80M / 5 years plus the team's highest pick in the draft for a player I consider more solid-good than star-level (his '10 and '04 are rather aberrant) and on the wrong side of 30? If the signing was to help sustain a contending team I might make the overpayment. This team isn't there yet, though, and a lot of things can happen on the way (such as Lawrie developing into a good 3b or 2b, Bautista might maintain enough of his bat to offset any defensive deficiencies, a trade, a better signing at 2b, etc). It just seems premature for a Beltre-type signing.
Mick Doherty - Monday, January 03 2011 @ 07:22 PM EST (#228309) #

I thiink Beltre ends up in Arlington and media speculation in NorTex corrobrates the possibility. Young would either be traded -- a terrible idea, he's The Captain -- or moved to a DH/1B/super-utility role

Want to bring Young back "home" to TO? Okay, how'bout ... Kyle Drabek?

8-P

Ryan C - Monday, January 03 2011 @ 07:36 PM EST (#228310) #

will he have 15 mil or 16 or whatever he'd be making that year in value? Abstractly, no, but in the FA market of 2014 - quite possibly.

Or quite possibly not.  That's the problem with signing guys to long term deals when you're building and not ready to contend; you can't predict the future.  Unless he's a "build the team around me" type of player, you just don't do it.  It's too easy to unintentionally hamstring yourself.  Short, team friendly contracts are what you want when you're in the building phase.  It's not enough to say that a player isn't going to be a boat anchor four or five years from now, that's not good enough.  Either he has to be a member of the core group or you have to have the ability to get rid of him when you need to.  Why saddle your future self, who is trying to build a contender, with an overpaid, potentially mediocre talent at any position.

Where are the stud 3B prospects we might trade for?

I don't know, even guys who do that kind of thing professionally for a living are pretty lousy at predicting what will happen three or more years away.

bpoz - Monday, January 03 2011 @ 08:00 PM EST (#228312) #
I am trying to figure out how AA spends money.
So far spending that AA has had a hand in:-
1) Only Romero & Lind are getting over $3mil per year. Please make any corrections necessary.
2) A Hech $10mil over 4 years is another big expense IMO.
3) $6 mil to Phillies in the Halladay trade is another big expense.

Everything else excluding buyout options has been under $3mil.

Fraser & J Bautista could cost AA over $3mil per year but that has not yet happened.

He gave big signing bonuses to his 2010 draft picks, $2mil D McGuire & $1.5mil D Thon.

He says that he will spend if it makes sense. I ended up being forced to figure out what this meant. I have concluded that the contracts have to make sense to AA not me or the numerous media people that I rely on for intelligence & knowledge. It seems that AA is either weak or unlucky at catching the big fish or maybe it is something else that I am missing out on.
TamRa - Monday, January 03 2011 @ 10:14 PM EST (#228319) #

Or quite possibly not. 

Actually, as I went on to say even if he's not that doesn't mean he's not a very valuable part of a contending team.

Beyond that, I think you are perhaps overlooking the insane escalation of the market. I could cite you several references.  A premium defender at an important  defensive position with a league average bat will almost certainly be a $14 million player in 2014, if he's not already.

That's the problem with signing guys to long term deals when you're building and not ready to contend; you can't predict the future.  Unless he's a "build the team around me" type of player, you just don't do it.  It's too easy to unintentionally hamstring yourself.

Except we have been assured in the strongest possible terms "the money WILL be there. IF Alex can justify the signing now, and AB happens to hit .220 in 2014, the assurences  have been that Rogers will spend what's necessary. not that I think Beltre will decline anything like that far, short of injury (and injuries can happen to any player on any contract) 

If we were dealing with the old budget-minded administration - no, I'd consider the risk of "hamstringing" too great. Am I naive to believe what they've told us? Maybe. But all i can work with is the available information.

  Short, team friendly contracts are what you want when you're in the building phase.  It's not enough to say that a player isn't going to be a boat anchor four or five years from now, that's not good enough. 

And that's not what I argued. I rather specifically (and apparently verbosely) argued he would be a KEY component of a contending team. It's pretty much the whole foundation of my argument.

Either he has to be a member of the core group or you have to have the ability to get rid of him when you need to.  Why saddle your future self, who is trying to build a contender, with an overpaid, potentially mediocre talent at any position.

I don't believe he is "potentially mediocre" - at worst he's a "potentially mediocre hitter" and that's the pessimistic view. Every team who wins, even with a "core group" has a somewhat older but talented veteran on the roster as well.

For instance, the Rangers are a young and exciting team full of players with potential to be "core" players. Having Michael Young (who isn't a great hitter OR defender) didn't hamstring them (with a highly over-priced contract on a team who's spent the last few years conscious of their budget. Now that same team is willing to make that $16 million a year commitment obsolete by signing the exact same player we're discussing.

Other examples might easily be cited. Building around a core of young talent is a very good strategy but it doesn't mean no veterans need apply. And take note, I'm AGAINST a lot of money for a one or two year deal - i argue this only in the context of Beltre being here when the Jays arrive at the place the Rangers are now.

92-93 - Monday, January 03 2011 @ 11:41 PM EST (#228323) #

This team isn't there yet, though, and a lot of things can happen on the way (such as Lawrie developing into a good 3b or 2b, Bautista might maintain enough of his bat to offset any defensive deficiencies, a trade, a better signing at 2b, etc).

As of now, Jose Bautista is a journeyman who prefers the OF with one good year under his belt that becomes a FA after this season. Brett Lawrie is a 20 year old who hit .270 in AA and has zero professional experience at 3B. This idea that Beltre shouldn't be signed because of them is akin to saying the Blue Jays shouldn't have drafted Deck McGuire in the past draft because they had Morrow-Marcum-Romero-Cecil and Litsch-Rzepczynski-Drabek-Stewart already taking up rotation spots. In the unlikely event of too much talent and not enough positions, there's always a trade partner out there. For all those people pencilling in Bautista in the lineup long term, I suggest a different way of looking at a Beltre signing - it's Beltre + 2 top draft picks (or a top prospect you could get in return for Bautista today) or Bautista + Rogers saving money on payroll. Why someone prefers the latter is beyond me, as is the notion that Bautista should be extended for 2 or 3 years at a price that is going to be north of 10m per annum whereas a Beltre signing would be madness - Beltre is only 18 months older and guarantees you stellar defensive value. Worrying about owing Beltre 25m in 2014-2015 shouldn't be the reason you don't pursue him today.

Spifficus - Monday, January 03 2011 @ 11:54 PM EST (#228324) #
None of that changes the way I see Beltre - a solid-to-good 3b who has had two star-level years. This isn't the type of person I'd go out and sign to 5/80 through their 36th birthday. It's fine to have the 'it's only money' mantra, but there are limits.

He's a 3-4 WAR player entering his decline phase... Am I missing something?
92-93 - Tuesday, January 04 2011 @ 02:00 AM EST (#228327) #
Yes - he isn't a 3-4 win player - he's a 3-7 win player. 3-4 over the last 5 years would be his basement, while it ignores his 5 WAR in 2006 and his 7 WAR in the most recent season of baseball. And hey, if he's only good in contract years, doesn't that mean he'll be incredible in 2015?
Spifficus - Tuesday, January 04 2011 @ 09:46 AM EST (#228330) #
I had missed his 4.9 WAR in '06 (and had rounded up his two 2.5's in Seattle), but was definitely chalking his 7 to a BABIP-induced anomaly. All the other numbers are in line with his typical year, but he had a 50 point head start in AVG. I don't put a .321 average in the likely-outcomes pile for his early-to-mid 30s years.

I know you were being glib, but I wish people would stop talking about the contract year crap, especially with Beltre. I mean, did he forget how to Step It Up in '09? I wonder if anyone actually believes in that stuff, or if it's just space-filler...
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, January 04 2011 @ 02:00 PM EST (#228340) #
You need to consider the win value for a 3-4 win player... it's less than what he's going to end up getting on the open market.
bpoz - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 03:49 PM EST (#228392) #
Another AA bullpen move. The FAN just reported Wil Ledezma LHP claimed from the pirates.
Mike Green - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 04:11 PM EST (#228395) #
Ledezma is the odd case.  A LHP who has been equally ineffective in his major league career against both lefties and righties.
Ryan C - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 05:50 PM EST (#228397) #

Question: does this mean that they have to keep him on the major league roster for the season?

Chuck - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 07:36 PM EST (#228405) #

Question: does this mean that they have to keep him on the major league roster for the season?

You're thinking of the rule 5 draft.

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