Most of the remaining closers don't interst me. K-Rod is a headcase and I have no interest in chasing Madson at this stage. I don't want to give up assets for Street or Baiiley either.  I'd be all over Soria if e became available but I don't see it happening. 

So I say pick up Ovideo/Leo Nunez or go in house.  We absolutely need an elite closer to be a championship level team but I'm not convinced we're any more likely to get one on the open market than we are trying a few options from our system (Janssen, Molina, McGowan...). Besides, that's Prince's money right?

I am not going to argue that the Jays couldn't use a better firstbaseman, because they could. But barring Fielder (who they are NOT going to sign), the upgrade over Lind is not as great as the upgrade they can EASILY get at 2B (because even average or slightly below is a big upgrade) and the bullpen.

The potential bullpen showed in the example is bad. They need at least three new bodies... including someone who can close. (That does NOT mean they have to go buy a name closer, but they need somebody who is better than what they have now.)

Off-topic but can anyone recommend a good beginners book on advance baseball statistics? Or a good website where one can go to understand WARP?WAR/VORP etc.?

Thanks in advance

I want to preface this by saying that as a casual baseball fan, I’m not entirely familiar with all of the sabermetrics in baseball. However, as an accountant I definitely respect using numbers to objectively analyse players.

I follow a few Blue Jay blogs and it seems as though the consensus is that spending big money on a closer is a waste of money.  A proven closer might pitch 4% of all of the available innings at the cost of 10% of the team’s budget (or more). I can see the huge opportunity cost of tying up money in a “proven” closer when you could use the money on a premium position AND find a pitcher who can close out games with similar results at a fraction of the cost.

That said, isn’t the point of baseball to win? By adding a quality reliever, I see an opportunity to add wins to the win column. In basketball, most games come down to the final two minutes and the difference between winning and losing comes down to the execution of a few possessions. Isn’t that the point of having a closer? AA has been quoted saying that blown saves are detrimental to team morale. If the right reliever was available, is it wrong to think that maybe they could make the difference between another season of building versus a season of playoff contention?

Thanks guys.

John, I think the issue a lot of Sabr inclined people have is that it doesn't seem that paying big bucks for a closer makes much of a difference versus a good reliever.  So, if Papelbon would have saved 2 more games than Jansen, you can use the money you would have spent on Pap to get more than 2 wins somewhere else.  Joe Pos did a study looking at the Yankees, and in the 20 years prior to having Mariano, their save percentage was 0.3% lower than with Mariano.  

Here's some of the Pos stuff on closers:

http://joeposnanski.si.com/2010/08/31/how-much-do-closers-mean/

Losing out on Papelbon hurt, as he was the closest thing to a Closer like Mariano Rivera that was available.  Everyone else is a full step down.   The only alternative now is K-Rod http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodrifr03.shtml or http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francisco_Rodr%C3%ADguez_(baseball,_born_1982) .   Of course A.A. talks a good game since this offseason started, but I don't think he's ready for the "Big Deal", the high risk move - Dollars - Length of term - he's got to give on one.

I will consider the gap in the $120.0 MM to $150.0 MM range for roster salary, that was talked about at one time, to be the monies used to "sign our own".   I will consider the gap in the $100.0 MM to $120.0 MM range to be monies used for "the big piece - to take us to the World Series".  Now to the finer details:

We're looking at maybe $60.5 MM as salary for 2012 (Romero, Morrow, Alvarez; Janssen, Litsch, Villanueva; Lind, Escobar, Lawrie, Arencibia, Encarnacion; Bautista, Rasmus, Davis; Teahen, McGowan, Hechavarria, and one of Thames or Snider) needing: Top Closer, one other Top Reliever, quality 2B, Backup Catcher, to fill out the roster.   Everything else is being filled in-house (2 Starters, 2 Relievers, Infielder) at maybe $2.5 MM more.  As for a Reliever: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/giants-trying-to-trade-affeldt-or-ramon-ramirez.html  ($3.0-$5.0 MM), 2B: can always be Johnson ($6.0-$6.5 MM), Backup Catcher: Josh Bard (34); Ramon Castro (36); Rob Johnson (28); Jason Kendall (38); Dioner Navarro (28); Ivan Rodriguez (40); Kelly Shoppach (32); Chris Snyder (31); J.R. Towles (28); Jason Varitek (40); ($1.5-$3.0 MM) and Closer: "needing a track record", $10.0-$12.0 MM).   The 2012 salary could be $83.5 MM - $89.5 MM) and that a fair distance from $100.0MM which should be our main operating range.

Is Dioner Navarro available in FA?  I'd sign up for that for 20 games per year.

I'm curious as to whether the market for Reyes and Fielder is all that strong.  I wouldn't mind at all if we could sign them to a 5-year deal.  They'd both be inline for another long term contract at the end of that.

Losing out on Papelbon hurt

Sometimes, I think it's a sin when I feel like I'm losing and I'm winning again.

the Jays as one of the favorites to get Cespedes (along with the Nationals and Cubs), and if so, they would flip Rasmus to the Royals

That would be possible, if Bowden didn't reveal it.

I want to preface this by saying that as a casual baseball fan, I’m not entirely familiar with all of the sabermetrics in baseball. However, as an accountant I definitely respect using numbers to objectively analyse players.

I follow a few Blue Jay blogs and it seems as though the consensus is that spending big money on a closer is a waste of money.  A proven closer might pitch 4% of all of the available innings at the cost of 10% of the team’s budget (or more). I can see the huge opportunity cost of tying up money in a “proven” closer when you could use the money on a premium position AND find a pitcher who can close out games with similar results at a fraction of the cost.

That said, isn’t the point of baseball to win? By adding a quality reliever, I see an opportunity to add wins to the win column. In basketball, most games come down to the final two minutes and the difference between winning and losing comes down to the execution of a few possessions. Isn’t that the point of having a closer? AA has been quoted saying that blown saves are detrimental to team morale. If the right reliever was available, is it wrong to think that maybe they could make the difference between another season of building versus a season of playoff contention?

Thanks guys.

Your basketball thing is flawed because you're talking about a different sport.  Most games in baseball are won or lost far before the ninth inning.  Often an earlier inning, one in which the closer doesn't even appear, ends up being higher leverege.

I missed the part where Bowden said he'd be flipped to the Royals for Soria specifically. If the Jays could, for example, trade Rasmus and Lind and something else for Hosmer, that would be a trade well worth making. Of course, that's a fantasy trade that the Royals wouldn't do, but the point is that Royals do have a lot of intriguing pieces ignoring Soria. I agree that trading Rasmus solely for Soria makes little sense.

I wouldn't trade Rasmus straight up for Hosmer, let alone with Lind.

I'd be all over that trade.  I know Rasmus plays a more demanding position, but Hosmer looks like he's going to be a stud.  He has a good eye and his power should develop as he gets older.  I'm thinking Joey Votto in his prime with 25-30 homerun power but with a very high OBP.  I don't see Rasmus approaching that.  As for Lind, he makes $5 million per year 2011-2013 with a $2 million buyout in 2013, or a club option for 2014-2016 for $7 million - $8 million per year.  According to Fangraphs his value was $3.1 million in 2010 and $2.2 million in 2011, so as an add-on to a trade I'd have no problem parting with him if a replacement 1B came back.  It doesn't look like he's going to be a good value for the Jays going forward.

@ Bluejayway

I agree and respectively disagree.  Obviously basketball and baseball are two completely different sports but I don't think that the logic is all that flawed.  In any sport, if it's close at the end of the game the difference between winning and losing comes down to the execution of a few plays.  In any close game, the margin between winning and losing can be quite small which is why I don't completely hate the idea of a closer.

I haven't studied how to calculate WAR but from what I can understand (so take this with a grain of salt) it seems as though closers as opposed to other relievers are undervalued.  Any other reliever can give up a couple of runs and the team still has a chance to win because there are still inning(s) left.  If a closer blows it in the 9th inning, 50% of the time the game is done (home vs away).  For that reason, I think that the 9th inning should carry much more weight than other innings which could address the WAR issue with closers.  I've read the argument many times that "X closer has a WAR of 1 therefore he's only worth $4-5M", I don't think that WAR should be that linear.  I do see the value in sabermetrics in objectively evaluating a player.  But in life (and this is coming from an accountant) decision making isn't always quantitative.  There are qualitative intangibles in having a shut down guy in your bullpen that in my opinion seem to be overlooked.

Sorry for the late reply.  Cheers!

@ bluejayway & bpoz

I agree that more often than not, any lead in the ninth inning will tend to result in a W especially in a sport like baseball where a team might average 5 runs a game.

It's just that alot of the posts that I see tend to overexaggerate how pointless spending money on a closer is, which makes me pause for two reasons:

1) The Jays had 25 blown saves last year.  I see 2012 as an opportunity for the Jays to take a step forward when teams such as the Red Sox are taking a step back. 

Maybe for a lot of teams, a closer would not make sense as they have decent options in their bullpen.  But for the Jays, it seems as though if they were to have a stronger bullpen, it could be the best use of money in terms of buying some more wins especially with a young staff.  Unfortunately, the market for closers seems to be set pretty high which makes it a very expensive way to upgrade.  All in all, I'm not against spending the right money on the right closer if it made the difference between postseason contention and another year of rebuilding.

2) As I mentioned earlier, I've read far too often the argument that X WAR = X dollars therefore X closer is a waste of money.  It's too simplistic of an argument and in my uneducated opinion, for relievers it's a flawed methodology.

Cheers!

A few caveats about this number. I don't have the exact inning breakdown, but a number of those blown saves came before the 9th inning where the closer was a non-factor. It's also possible to have multiple blown saves in one game, so the number of games where the team blew a save was less than 25. Lastly, 8 of those blown saves came in games that the Blue Jays eventually won.

I won't deny that the bullpen was a weak spot for the team in 2011, but my point is that not all 25 of those blown saves led to losses, and not all of them would have been prevented with a better closer. Some of those blown saves could have been prevented by the starting pitching and/or offence giving the bullpen bigger leads to work with.

One of my biggest issues with closers is that they're really not that different from top non-closing relievers. Picking up a guy with the "proven closer" label is going to cost a lot more than a setup guy with similar numbers, despite the fact that most top relievers can slide into the closer role without much difficulty. Had Ryan Madson been a free agent last year, his salary expectations would have been considerably lower than this year, even though his numbers were largely the same from 2010 to 2011. The only difference between those two years was the inning he was primarily used in. There's a lot of talk about the "closer mindset" but it seems like most good pitchers possess it.

I've said it many times before here, but my preference would be to do away with the closer role and instead use the team's best reliever as the game situation dictates. That could wind up being in the 9th inning one day, but it could also be a bases loaded situation in a tie game in the 7th. Holding onto a guy for a three-run lead in the 9th is an inefficient use of a team's best relief arm. The 9th isn't the only inning where a ballgame can be won or lost.

Memory check!! Mike Timlin made the last out of the game in 1992 Atlanta. He was not one of our top 3 bull pen guys. Cannot remember why him but... great results.

Duane Ward pitched the 8th, and Tom Henke pitched the 9th (blowing the save) and got an out in the 10th.

bpoz

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