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A ton of stuff to report.

Albert Pujols is signing with the Angels for 10 years at $25 million + per year.
Evidently the Vernon Wells contract isn't hampering them too much, as they are also reported to be signing CJ  Wilson for 5 years, $75 million.

Miami/Florida continued its busy offseason by signing Mark Buehrle to a 4 year, $58 million deal.

In Toronto news, the Blue Jays DFA'd Brian Jeroloman again in order to make room for Kelly Johnson, who accepted arbitration.
The team also rumored to be involved in negotiations around Gio Gonzalez. (h/t @mlbtr)

The Jays also didn't take or lose anyone in the Rule 5 Draft, though they did select three players in the minor league portion of the draft - Gabriel Jacobo, Hector Alvarez and Javier Avendano

More as it develops.

Getting to the Jays first:

Alex Anthopoulos indicated that he was happy no matter what Johnson decided; while he may have ultimately preferred the draft picks, Johnson is a strong candidate to bounce back in 2012, and figures to be a much better player than Luis Valbuena. He had a terrible 2011 and was still worth more than 2 fWAR, and he has consistently walked and hit for power. The only thing that has really fluctuated is his batting average on balls in play, and his 2011 mark was .40 points below his career average. If he can play decent defense and hit .250/.350/.450, a slightly optimistic mid-point between his 2010 and 2011 seasons, he will be a valuable piece at second base.

No one should be too surprised that the Jays lost Brian Jeroloman, as the team has made it abundantly clear that it does not really consider him a long term piece. The writing was really on the wall when the team acquired Jeff Mathis, although I feel sorry for Brian, and this must have been quite a roller coaster.

Lastly, it makes sense that the Jays would be interested in Gonzalez. He is relatively young (26), relatively good (6.7 fWAR last two years),  and relatively cost controlled - he is a super two player, meaning he is under team control but arbitration eligible for the first time this year. The asking price is reportedly two top prospects and two mid-range prospects, and while the Jays certainly can pay that, it's not clear that they would want to. Oakland's stadium is also a fairly generous park for pitchers, and Gonzalez has out-performed his peripherals by at least half a run in each of the last two years. This type of player is always extremely valuable, and Anthopoulos could just take his lumps and sign a veteran for the year as a bridging measure. Also for what it's worth, I don't think a single AA Blue Jays trade has ever leaked beforehand, so take all of this with a grain of salt.

In the Minor League Rule 5, the Jays took three players. Gabe Jacobo is a 24 year old first baseman in the Angels system who hit .270/.309/.419 last year in AA. He doesn't walk much or hit for much power.  Hector Alvarez is a 20 year old catcher who's had 330 sub-.700 OPS PA spread out over two years of Rookie Ball with the Mets. Javier Avendano is a 21 year old right handed pitcher from the Cards system with fewer than 100 professional innings spread out over two years. He's posted big K numbers but has control problems.

The Angels moves meanwhile make them a stronger team with one of the best rotations in the Majors, with Wilson, Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana  (who the team may be trying to trade.) However their payroll is now officially approaching ridiculous, with some $130 million committed to 8 players in 2012 (Pujols, Wilson, Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu, Santana and Weaver.) All of those hitters are on the downside of their careers, though only Weaver and Wells go beyond this year. Are they better than the Rangers though? I'm not sure. Nevertheless they should be pretty good in 2012.
Winter Meetings Day 4 | 58 comments | Create New Account
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Gerry - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 12:05 PM EST (#248172) #

The Jays are talking with Oakland about Gio Gonzalez (or Cahill); to the Mets about Niese; and reportedly to the Angels about Ervin Santana.

The Jays had 4 major needs this off-season, 2B; backup catcher; closer and another SP.   Three done, one to go.

AA was reportedly upset about losing Nestor Molina, he might be doubly upset when he has to pay for one of those pitchers.

greenfrog - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 12:13 PM EST (#248176) #
I like Gonzalez the best of those arms (admittedly I don't know much about Niese, apart from BRef), but with his control issues (4.1BB/9IP in the minors and in 2010/11) Gio isn't exactly an ace or maybe even a #2, although his other component stats are good and he has pitched 200+ innings in his last two years. I guess it depends whether AA thinks he'll continue to improve, regress, or stay the same. As the moment, I would say he's a solid #3, edging into #2 territory.
John Northey - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 12:27 PM EST (#248177) #
B-R had the Angels at $131 million for 2012 already. Add in Pujols (roughly $25 mil per) and Wilson ($15 per) and you're up to $171 million. That's $10 million more than the Red Sox have been for the past 2 years and right up there with the Phillies (B-R has them at $173 mil last year, Cot's has them at $165).

There are now 4 teams in the $160+ category (Yanks, Red Sox, Angels, Phillies) and the Mets & Dodgers (once new owners take over both) are yet to be heard from.
sam - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 12:30 PM EST (#248178) #
I know it's early days when it comes to the Darvish market, but a number of teams seem to be ruling out a bid already. It might come down to us and the Yankees. It just seems like the best option for the jays
Anders - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 12:32 PM EST (#248180) #
I know it's early days when it comes to the Darvish market, but a number of teams seem to be ruling out a bid already. It might come down to us and the Yankees. It just seems like the best option for the jays

I think the Rangers are a pretty logical thought for Darvish also.
krose - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 12:35 PM EST (#248182) #
FYI

#Bluejays selected RHP Javier Avendano, LF Gabriel Jacobo, C Hector Alvarez in minor-league phase of Rule 5. Lose nobody. #jays

wilnerness590
via twitter on Dec 8, 2011 at 11:14 AM
JB21 - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 12:38 PM EST (#248184) #

Via MLBTR's

The Dodgers won't be bidding on Darvish, tweets Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times, but A's assistant GM David Forst wouldn't rule it out in talking to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.  Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News hears the Rangers aren't willing to gamble $100MM on Darvish.  The Red Sox are unlikely to be involved, GM Ben Cherington told reporters.

Gerry - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 12:40 PM EST (#248185) #

The Jays have been talking up Brett Cecil at these meetings, they have been saying what great condition he is in, losing weight, etc.

Could the Jays be talking up Cecil so they can trade him?

John Northey - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 12:43 PM EST (#248186) #
If it is down to the Jays and Yankees and Rangers does it make sense to just make a crazy bid, lowball Darvish and keep him away from the AL for a year or two?

This is where AA has to be super-sneaky. He needs to have someone in the other teams front offices tell him what their bids are going to be so he can decide if it is worth it to 1) outbid them and 2) how low he can go while still winning.

A big issue now also is it looks like salaries are starting to climb as teams look at that $189 figure and are shooting to get close to it. That means that the Jays need to lock up talent now as the free draft pick days are over, as is the ability to sign 100's of international free agents.

Darvish should be interesting. He is appealing to the Yankees as the posting fee doesn't count towards luxury taxes. He is also appealing to the Jays as they'd be able to control him for 6 years and his age/talent fits perfectly into this team. Plus Texas and the like will be digging in of course. Luckily the Mets & Dodgers are in ownership flux and the Mariners are in a bad place (about as far from contending as it gets) otherwise those 3 would be serious contenders. Plus, of course, one has to think the Angels are done at this point - but who knows eh?
John Northey - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 12:54 PM EST (#248188) #
Interesting minor league picks. Few of them ever get to the majors but once in awhile you get a Goose Gozzo (big help in '89s division title).

RHP Javier Avendano: Entering his age 21 season, 4 years in the minors but just 2 1/2 in NA. In NA he has 11.3 K/9 and between 3.4 and 5.9 BB/9 (depending on level). This sounds like a kid a team normally would be a bit excited about - live arm, fairly young, bit wild but fairly effective. Should be in low A or full-season A next year.

1B Gabriel Jacobo: Entering his age 25 season, has just 86 games in AA so far. 284/327/470 lifetime in the minors but almost always older than normal for his level. Has 359 games at 1B, 13 at 3B (all last year), and 2 in LF. Filler.

C Hector Alvarez: Entering his age 21 season. Only 27 games in NA after 138 in the VSL and DSL. Has yet to post a 700 OPS at any level in any season. 36% CS rate. Not much of a prospect on the surface, but at his age who knows?

I see one guy with a future, one who might but unlikely, and a bit of filler at 1B/3B/LF.
Gerry - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 01:04 PM EST (#248191) #

The Jays might have a hole at 1B in AA.  Mike McDade will probably move to AAA.  Jon Talley might not be ready for AA.  Yan Gomes is an option but he is a PT catcher as is Sean Ochinko.

The same applies to backup catchers.  If Gomes is the backup in AA, and Ochinko deserves a shot at AA, who is the backup in Dunedin?

So at least 2 of those players fill a roster hole but are not players to get excited about.

greenfrog - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 01:22 PM EST (#248194) #
Everyone keeps linking the Jays to Darvish, but I just don't see it happening. Rightly or wrongly, I think Rogers will see him as involving too much money and risk, at least at this stage in the rebuilding/rebranding. I think the comments to the media have been aimed at mollifying a fan base that is going to see the Jays pass on all the big names.
baagcur - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 01:51 PM EST (#248197) #
Consider me unmollified. The fact that the Angels are prepared to go big based on a TV deal only puts Rogers failure to use their cable cash in starker perspective
krose - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 02:06 PM EST (#248201) #
John: Thanks for the info on the minor league pick ups.
John Northey - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 02:17 PM EST (#248203) #
Krose: no problem. I dig into that stuff because I'm curious and it is easier to get thoughts put together by typing them out I find. My curiosity and determination to clear my head during the work day helps provide all kinds of info :)

As to Darvish - I really do want the Jays to get him, but also don't want them to blow $20 mil a year on a guy who isn't likely to be at the ace level. But if they feel he is that type (and the evidence says he is) then I really think Rogers will regret not giving the cash as it would jump TV ratings in BC (high Asian content there) and could help the Jays win more too (thus increasing ratings everywhere).

C'mon Jays - take the big risk!
baagcur - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 02:28 PM EST (#248205) #
Do Chinese and Koreans root for Japanese? I think he will be novelty interest for everyone.
More wins are the best bet for increasing interest
Flex - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 02:39 PM EST (#248207) #
Could the Jays be talking up Cecil so they can trade him?

I think this is a very reasonable assumption. And it relates to a move that's already happened. Is it coincidence that the Jays traded Nestor Molina just a week or two after John Farrell and Sal Fasano and several other people couldn't stop talking about how great Molina was and how he might just be closer material.

Suddenly Molina jumps up to near the top of the prospect pile in many eyes, and just as suddenly, he's gone.

I wonder. Is Anthopoulos the kind to orchestrate that kind of strategic PR job? I'd kind of like it if he was.
sam - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 02:40 PM EST (#248208) #
I wouldn't be surprised if the Orioles bid big on Darvish.
Mylegacy - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 02:45 PM EST (#248209) #
OK

Gut check time!

Which do you want:

OPTION A: We get 26 year old Gio Gonzalez - it costs us his contract - lets say 3 Million as a super two AND McGuire, Nicolino and (Marisnick OR Gose.)

OR :

OPTION B: We LOSE Gio Gonzalez and $134 Million ($67 posting $67 five year contract) - WE GET 25 year old Yu Darvish, McGuire, Nicolino and (Marisnick or Gose). The $67 million can be written off a long period of time only the  $13.4 per year costs against the cap.

SERIOUSLY: Just how good is Gio outside of his former home park? Wilson for 77+ over 5?

After next years draft the Jays will NEVER be able to steal picks like they've done til now. DO WE WANT - DO THE JAYS WANT - to lose Molina, McGuire, Nicolino and (Marisnick or Gose) for Gonzalez and Santos? HOW LONG - will our prospect surplus last at that rate? SURELY - we have to keep these prospects until they are SO GOOD we can REALLY get gold for them (or until AA knows they won't be gold and before others do).

AA - I TRUST YOU. But losing FOUR top prospects for the return we can get for them this year is JUST a BRIDGE TOO FAR! Take up a friggin' collection from the fans - I'll give $500 bucks to the team if you set up a donation system and IF you get Darvish - I bet I'm not alone either!

sam - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 02:57 PM EST (#248210) #
I'll donate money for Darvish!
rpriske - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 03:11 PM EST (#248211) #

Dn't worry about Jeroloman. He'll sign with Pittsburgh tomorrow.

 

And they will DFA him on Tuesday.

 

In other news, we'll be seeing Jesse Carlson... as a member of the Boston Red Sox.

greenfrog - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 03:16 PM EST (#248212) #
Rogers is a wealthy public company - no need to pass around a collection plate. Better to organize a petition threatening to cancel subscriptions and boycott games en masse unless they put an end to the "cheap Jays." With lots of PR in the Canadian and US media. That might get their attention.
John Northey - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 03:26 PM EST (#248214) #
If it takes a $67 million posting fee to get Darvish then baseball revenues must be drastically up or he is the 2nd coming of Roger Clemens/Greg Maddux/Randy Johnson/Pedro Martinez. $26.8 mil a year for an unproven commodity would be a crazy big risk. Going over $20 per is big imo ($50 mil post + $50 over 5).

It will be interesting to see who wins the posting and how much they bid. I'd love it if the Jays win though as that would make the rotation that much stronger (Darvish-Romero-Alvarez-Morrow-battle for last slot with prospects up the wazoo coming in).
92-93 - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 03:29 PM EST (#248216) #
Flex, that's a nice theory, but Marco Paddy is the clear wrench. He knows exactly what the Jays thought of Nestor Molina.
TamRa - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 03:30 PM EST (#248217) #
OPTION A: We get 26 year old Gio Gonzalez - it costs us his contract - lets say 3 Million as a super two AND McGuire, Nicolino and (Marisnick OR Gose.)

OR :

OPTION B: We LOSE Gio Gonzalez and $134 Million ($67 posting $67 five year contract) - WE GET 25 year old Yu Darvish, McGuire, Nicolino and (Marisnick or Gose). The $67 million can be written off a long period of time only the $13.4 per year costs against the cap.
-----------------------------------

Darvish.
Slam Dunk.

And I may be the only one but I still think AA & Co. would give the same answer.

I see no objective reason for the widespread assumption the Jays will sit that process out.

Just so much knee-jerk negativism IMO.
sam - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 03:31 PM EST (#248218) #
The problem with Kelly Johnson is he has a lot of JD Drew in him. I had a Red Sox friend who once told me watching a whole season of JD Drew would suck any joy out of baseball. I think what he meant was JD played the game in a monotonous, predictable way. You always knew he would take the first pitch, or in any crucial point in the game he'd approach the at-bat just like any other and if he struck out he would ho-hum back to the bench. I think Kelly Johnson brings a lot to this club, especially OBP, but I have a horrible feeling that a season of him and Colby Rasmus might be difficult to take. In many respects, they're the anti-Lawrie.
Flex - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 03:33 PM EST (#248219) #
Just read the North of the Border blog in which Gregor Chisholm gives us a Q&A with Anthopoulos and in it, Alex says something very odd. This Q&A was done Thursday morning, after Kelly Johnson accepted arbitration.

Q: On Wednesday you said you would consider Johnson in LF. Is that still the case?

A: “Right now we don’t have a second baseman — he would be the second baseman as of right now."

He went on to talk about taking advantage of an opportunity if it presented itself. But those first words out of his mouth seem strangely contradictory and maybe revealing. Maybe it's just a case of odd wording on his part. But I found it strange.

Thoughts?
92-93 - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 03:34 PM EST (#248220) #
That's a very good way of putting it, sam. It's a very bland style of baseball. But the bottom line is if he puts up the #s he did in 2007, 2008, or 2010 no one will give a damn. John Olerud wasn't exactly bursting with enthusiasm out there.
TamRa - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 03:41 PM EST (#248222) #
on Johnson - don't overlook the possibility the Jays could still trade him. St. Louis, Minnesota, Detroit, Colorado, florida?



On another note - the Pirates only paid Bedard $4.5 mil - assuming for the sake of this point no Darvish, that's a deal i'd have signed.

wonder if you could get Harden for something similar to that?
DaveB - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 03:44 PM EST (#248223) #

Regarding the Minor League draft, Avendano is certainly the most interesting of the three pickups. He was a $100,000 IFA signing by the Cardinals in 2007 and in 2009 was in the top 15 of Baseball America's best Venezuela Summer League prospects. He was on the shelf a couple of times this past season with Batavia and pitched only 14.1 innings, but finished up with several good relief outings (1 ER, 0 BB, 12 K in his last 8.2 IP). Here's a comment from Scout.com's Cardinals' writer Dustin Mattison:

"Avendano put together one of the most dominating performances in the Cardinals minor league system in 2010. Pitching as a 19-year-old, the only thing that slowed him down was an arm injury in mid-season ... He throws in the high 80’s, low 90’s with developing secondary stuff."

So, two good short-season efforts, both marked by arm/shoulder soreness.

Another Venezuela note: Anthony Gose's busy off-season is continuing there with Aragua. He joined the team last weekend for presumably the rest of their season (end of December). Los Tigres de Aragua have quite the list of former players: Rod Carew, Mariano Riveira, Miguel Cabrera, Paul O’Neill, Torii Hunter, Jim Edmonds, Rico Carty, Larry Parrish, Dave Concepcion. Maybe something will rub off on Gose.

Regarding Gonzalez, Darvish ... I'm all for going after Darvish but I don't think the cost fits what AA seems to have outlined, nor do i think he'll be good enough to justify it. But it's not my money, so sure, why not try to at least win the posting bid and see what happens. Gio Gonzalez is not worth the projected talent cost, in my opinion. I think many fans will be underwhelmed by the starting pitcher AA picks up this off-season. One guy who I think fits is Brandon McCarthy. He was the A's best pitcher this year per Fangraphs (4.7 WAR) but it was his first good season, he's 28 and a FA next year. He's projected to get an Arb award of $3.3 million for 2012. It won't take much to acquire him (maybe a decent prospect or two along the lines of Jimenez, Sanchez, Jenkins), but if you buy into the "new" McCarthy and he delivers again, he would be a bargain at that price and AA would have the inside track on extending/re-signing a guy who won't be as expensive as many more prominent pitchers. If he can sustain what he did last year McCarthy's a very solid 2-3 starter.

Aside from McCarthy, I think the Jays are likely to end up with someone younger, cheaper and with projected improvement: Niese, Minor, Leake types. But who knows.
TamRa - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 03:47 PM EST (#248224) #
"If it takes a $67 million posting fee to get Darvish then baseball revenues must be drastically up or he is the 2nd coming of Roger Clemens/Greg Maddux/Randy Johnson/Pedro Martinez. $26.8 mil a year for an unproven commodity would be a crazy big risk. Going over $20 per is big imo ($50 mil post + $50 over 5).

It will be interesting to see who wins the posting and how much they bid. I'd love it if the Jays win though as that would make the rotation that much stronger (Darvish-Romero-Alvarez-Morrow-battle for last slot with prospects up the wazoo coming in)."
-----------------

I don't think the team would look at that as a per-year costs.

Rather, consider - the new CBA just effectively took the option of spending an addition, say, $10 mil a year on amateur talent off the table - even if you have it, you can't spend it.

Either the team pockets that money, or the re-direct it. There are worse was to re-direct it than towards a posting fee for a once-in-a-generation talent (if that's what they think he is)

In the same way that the money spent on amateur talent is not considered against the MLB payroll, neither would the posting fee be.

So what you end up with is the money you might otherwise have spent on the draft and Latin American players over the next five years put in a pile and handed to the Fighters, then Darvish signed to a similar deal to what CJ Wilson got. say $15m a year.

which is, IMO, a no-brainer.
rpriske - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 03:51 PM EST (#248226) #

I would like the Jays to snag Darvish... but not for the $20M it seems like it will take. WAAAAAAY too much for a barely proven commodity.

 

I also wouldn't give Fielder 8 years.

 

Just because someone is good it doesn't mean they are worth what the market will give them.

John Northey - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 03:56 PM EST (#248227) #
Good point TamRa and that might be how AA and Beeston are trying to sell it to Rogers.

"We cannot spend the $10 mil a year we budgeted on ifa so lets blow 5-6 years worth to get a 'sure thing' which might help sell season tickets and jump enthusiasm across the country, thus sell more Rogers goods as well."

Eh, worth a shot if you are in their shoes. Annual cost would be $10-$15 per year, AA would try to toss in team friendly options for years 6/7/8 I suspect so the Jays would know he'd be theirs for his entire prime if desired.
Kelekin - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 05:22 PM EST (#248237) #
I like the pick up of Avendano.  The only Rule 5 pick I really wanted was Cesar Cabral, who is going to be a major league reliever, whether it is this year or next (pissed the Royals sent him to the Yankees).

In regard to this Gio Gonzalez talk - there is no way Gio Gonzalez is worth what we'd pay.  As far as I am concerned, the only time giving up a prospect for a starting pitcher makes sense is when you are getting a top tier starting pitcher.  Gonzalez has #2 potential, but he's still in between #2-#3 right now.  Obviously he is talented, but I just figure we're going to have to overpay for him.

That being said, I would prefer him over Niese...but I would've been happy just bridging the gap with Bedard.  I'd really like to see what McGuire, Hutchison, and Jenkins end up doing at the ML level (although Hutch/McGuire more so).
finch - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 05:59 PM EST (#248244) #
One thing I've learned about AA is that if it's talked about, it's usually not true. If there are prospects being moved, like Anthony Gose was to Houston, AA wants to be a part of those discussions.

Arizona was reportedly involved in talks with Oakland about Gio Gonzalez. There was an indication that Arizona might include Trevor Bauer. This is where AA jumps in and says, "Whoa, give me Bauer, I'll sweeten the pot a tad with my prospects. Give me the "A" type talent, and I'll give you 2 "B+" guys, etc. Keep in mind that Bauer can not be traded until January, or whenever he can be moved.
finch - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 06:05 PM EST (#248247) #
And in terms of AA not getting additional pick going forward is not true. I thought teams can trade the comp lottery picks to teams. I would think Toronto would be active on that front as well.
Thomas - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 06:33 PM EST (#248250) #
Jesse Carlson has reportedly signed a "split" contract with the Red Sox. I didn't expect him to be back. He had a good season in 2008, but has been injured and somewhat ineffective the past couple of seasons.
Mylegacy - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 06:59 PM EST (#248251) #
TAMRA - spot friggin' on! Well done!

Since we can't spend $10 million a year on any more Hechy's, etal under the new CBA - why not package the next 6 years of that for the BEST foreign prospect this side of Beijing! His yearly contract is DEFINITELY not going to be too severe. We've got him for 6 years - BUT we've got him for 6 years - so might as well set a contract for the full term - say - 6 years for 72 million? Or whatever AA can manage to get him for.
 

Mylegacy - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 08:11 PM EST (#248257) #
Did I mention 6 years?
Dave Till - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 08:46 PM EST (#248261) #
The Darvish thing fascinates me, because it forces the owner of a baseball team to make a choice - do I want to win, or do I want to follow a viable business model?

On the one hand, the whole idea of paying a great whack of money just for the rights to pay a whole other whack of money is insane. But, on the other hand, if the Jays don't spend like crazy on Darvish or the equivalent, they lose ground to teams that do. The Yankees and the Red Sox - both of whom need starting pitching - will both likely post ludicrously large sums to try to get the chance to negotiate with him, and these are the teams that the Jays are trying to compete against. And this doesn't factor in wild cards such as the Angels, who are spending like a man who has been handed a billion dollars and told that he has one week to live.

I have no idea what the right course of action is. If the Jays behave rationally, they'll go back to being 81-81 again, and the goodwill engendered by the new uniforms will go to waste. If they don't behave rationally, they'll wind up hemorrhaging money, and might not win anyway. I'd like to see them go for Darvish, but I can see some team somewhere spending $40 million or $50 million just because they see the negotiation as a game that they hate to lose. Which leaves the Jays in the cold.

As for Kelly Johnson: they needed a second baseman. They now have one. It's all good.

92-93 - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 09:50 PM EST (#248265) #
Does it make any sense to be in on Yu Darvish and out on CJ Wilson? Seems like a tremendous risk to take just for some more upside.

I know scoring runs wasn't the Jays problem last year, but for me if they were going to make a big splash on the FA market it should have been on a bat, not an arm. The strength of the organization right now is the depth of its arms, and it's a lot harder to predict pitching performance than hitting, especially when the guy has no MLB track record. Unless the Jays were going to be involved with Sabathia I'm way more comfortable giving big money to a proven bat.

At this point I'd be happy if the Jays added guys like Josh Willingham & Rich Harden on one year deals.
CaramonLS - Thursday, December 08 2011 @ 10:49 PM EST (#248267) #
The thing about Darvish, is that if he is good, he can be worth his weight in dollars due to the expanded market the team is now appealing to.  There would be a good possibility of increased Japanese marketing streams coming into your stadium, more international merchandise sales, etc.

Looking at his Japanese numbers, he is a much better bet than Matsuzaka was.  I still think Matsuzaka would be a #2-3 pitcher in MLB if not for the injuries:

Matsuzaka

Darvish

Darvish has ace potential IMO.

Richard S.S. - Friday, December 09 2011 @ 12:51 AM EST (#248272) #

Players taken in the Minor League portion of the Rule 5 draft http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111208&content_id=26130902&vkey=news_tor&c_id=tor must be assigned to AAA or we might lose them.

I like Options A and B.   Why not?

On the Main Site http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/index.jsp?c_id=tor I found this http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111207&content_id=26115250&vkey=news_tor&c_id=tor but going here http://gregorchisholm.mlblogs.com/2011/12/08/day-four-saying-goodbye-to-dallas/  I found this:

Strictly trades to improve the bullpen or would you sign a free agent…

“I think it will be a combination of both. I think you’re always going to end up signing one or two free agent relievers. Sometimes it’s Minor League free agents and there are some guys we’re going to look at in trade too. So, getting those late innings eighth inning guys I see that being via trade rather than in terms of free agents but that could change as well.”

and I found this: 

Could you go to Rogers and ask for more funds

“We don’t need to. I have more than enough resources to put a good product and a competitive team on the field. It’s on me to be able to do it. There has never been an issue with that, there hasn’t been a problem at all with all of that stuff.

“That being said, if there’s something out there that makes a lot of sense, we always have the ability to go to ownership. They’ve always been willing to help and try to make the team better.”

and this:

Are you a better team now than at the end of the season

“I believe we’re a more talented team now but we still have holes. Our core talent continues to improve. We still need to fill in the remaining relievers, we’re hoping some of our younger players continue to take a stride forward. I would say the biggest thing is I don’t think we lost a core piece in the off-season so far, we added one. From my standpoint that’s an improvement because that’s what we need to do.

“I just would like to have depth. Casey did a nice job for us but we’re that much stronger if he can pitch in the seventh inning. The more we can solidify that bullpen and make it that much stronger the better off we’re going to be.

and this:

Depth to make another big deal?

“We’re pretty deep in terms of minor-league players, that being said we’re not looking to trade all of them. But the minor-leagues are there to either help the big-league club by coming up there and playing or to use them in trade, and not all of them are going to pan out. If you take a Baseball America top 30, all 30 of them are not going to be playing for you, we don’t have room. At some point players are going to be used in trade and I think from our standpoint, timing is very important, whether it’s where their value is, if they’re block. I think timing is very important.”

I like the idea of going after another Top Reliever (8th inning guy - EIG / backup closer).   Two long relievers (possibly Villanueva and Litsch), two Fireman (first guy of the bench - FGOB), Janssen, EIG, Santos.   This has to be worth 8 - 10 more wins.

Kelekin - Friday, December 09 2011 @ 04:33 AM EST (#248279) #
It's interesting because bullpens fluctuate, so how do you determine it? Yes, we have Santos, but is our overall bullpen significantly better?  While we had the lowest SV% in the AL last year at 57, being in the middle of the pack of that stat might mean 3-5 more saves.  On the flipside, Toronto was among the best in not letting inherited runners score. 

Too many intangibles to make such an assumption.

2011 Bullpen
Francisco - Rauch - Dotel - Frasor - Camp - Janssen - Rzep - Villanueva

On paper, it was a pretty strong bullpen.
TamRa - Friday, December 09 2011 @ 05:36 AM EST (#248281) #
2011 Bullpen
Francisco - Rauch - Dotel - Frasor - Camp - Janssen - Rzep - Villanueva

On paper, it was a pretty strong bullpen.
----------------------

Actually, until the trade, it was. Francisco and Dotel both worked out fine after early struggles. Frasor was quite good, Janssen was even better, so was Zep, and Villianueva was good in relief before moving to the rotation.

Of 8 guys listed, six did perfectly reasonable work for the Jays. The overall results are skewed partly by the slugs we had to resort to after the trade, and partly by some short-lived struggles by Dotel and Francisco (the former almost entirely the manager's fault)
TamRa - Friday, December 09 2011 @ 05:49 AM EST (#248282) #
"must be assigned to AAA or we might lose them."

I saw that but I think it's a technicality. Players taken in the minor league portion routinely play below the "official" level the following season - possibly they are offered back but everyone kind of understands that it's a formality and you decline? maybe there's a roster requirement if you take them back (like taking them back means YOU have to keep them in AAA)?

I dunno.

What I do know is that we took a guy named Ivan Contrares in the AA portion last year and he spent every day of the season in Dunedin. And he's not the exception, that's what usually happens. But it's too late tonight for me to look up further evidence.
rpriske - Friday, December 09 2011 @ 08:48 AM EST (#248286) #
On paper it WASN'T a very strong bullpen. That's the point. This year's looks better, but I think they should still get another arm.
85bluejay - Friday, December 09 2011 @ 10:18 AM EST (#248297) #

Rogers has just spent $533m on MLSE - may not want to spend on Jays in near term - also the leafs become the apple in their sports eye & may not bode well for the Jays.

I think fans expecting the Jays to win the Yu Darvish sweepstakes or sign Prince are up the creek without a paddle - the watchword in the AA era has been "value" and I don't think either represent good value.

I wonder if St. Louis may be interested in Kelly Johnson & Adam Lind - if the price is right I would like the Jays to acquire Gordon Beckham & Kendry Morales.

cybercavalier - Friday, December 09 2011 @ 07:21 PM EST (#248351) #
Minor note: The Phillies signed David Purcey to minor league contract with invitation to spring training.
Ryan Day - Friday, December 09 2011 @ 09:57 PM EST (#248359) #
Speaking of former Blue Jays and position players turning to pitching: The Diamondbacks have signed Jason Lane with the intention of using him as a pitcher. (Only on a minor-league contract, but it's still interesting.)
Richard S.S. - Friday, December 09 2011 @ 11:39 PM EST (#248362) #

I wonder if St. Louis may be interested in Kelly Johnson & Adam Lind - if the price is right I would like the Jays to acquire Gordon Beckham & Kendry Morales.

You are joking right, or going crazy?  

Kendry Morales' http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2010/05/angels-dont-expect-kendry-morales-injury-to-end-his-season.html injury in 2010, was more serious than thought http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=moralke01&t=b&year= and might be career-ending!

Gordon Beckham gets more playing time http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beckhgo01.shtml , more experience and doesn't improve, just gets a little worse each year.  

Yu Darvish has huge value.   They think so: http://yankeesfansunite.wordpress.com/2011/12/08/hot-stove-targeting-yu-darvish/ , why don't you.

Paul D - Saturday, December 10 2011 @ 12:18 PM EST (#248371) #
Depending on cost, Morales and Beckham are exactly the kind of high risk move the Jays should be making.
Mylegacy - Saturday, December 10 2011 @ 02:34 PM EST (#248377) #
I know - it's way the s*it too early to even start thinking about this stuff - but - single malt has that effect on me - what can I say...

236 home runs anyone?

Escobar (R)    12 homers, 280 ave, 356 obp, 410 slg, 766 ops.
Johnson (L)    22 homers, 256 ave, 368 obp, 448 slg, 816 ops.
Bautista (R)    38 homers, 310 ave, 420 obp, 535 slg, 955 ops.
Lawrie (R)       38 homers, 316 ave, 335 obp, 525 slg, 860 ops.
Lind (L)            27 homers, 268 ave, 325 obp, 485 slg, 810 ops.
EE (R)              25 homers, 262 ave, 325 obp, 475 slg, 800 ops.
Rasmus (L)      24 homers, 262 ave, 330 obp, 485 slg, 805 ops.
Arencibia (R)   28 homers, 248 ave, 305 obp, 502 slg, 807 ops.
Thames (L)      22 homers, 264 ave, 312 obp, 485 slg, 790 ops.

eldarion - Saturday, December 10 2011 @ 02:40 PM EST (#248378) #
I think you would need to shave around 10 homers off of Lawrie's total...but, surprisingly, nothing else on that list looks out of the realm of possibility to me. I tend to forget that the Jays' lineup is quite decent, actually...in the hysteria around 'upgrading' during the off-season, it's easy to forget how potent a lineup they could potentially have.  
BlueJayWay - Saturday, December 10 2011 @ 06:25 PM EST (#248390) #
236 home runs anyone?

Escobar (R)    12 homers, 280 ave, 356 obp, 410 slg, 766 ops.
Johnson (L)    22 homers, 256 ave, 368 obp, 448 slg, 816 ops.
Bautista (R)    38 homers, 310 ave, 420 obp, 535 slg, 955 ops.
Lawrie (R)       38 homers, 316 ave, 335 obp, 525 slg, 860 ops.
Lind (L)            27 homers, 268 ave, 325 obp, 485 slg, 810 ops.
EE (R)              25 homers, 262 ave, 325 obp, 475 slg, 800 ops.
Rasmus (L)      24 homers, 262 ave, 330 obp, 485 slg, 805 ops.
Arencibia (R)   28 homers, 248 ave, 305 obp, 502 slg, 807 ops.
Thames (L)      22 homers, 264 ave, 312 obp, 485 slg, 790 ops.


Wow.  I hadn't realized there is that much power.

I'd definitely take the under on Lawrie.  Everything else actually looks pretty reasonable.  Shave 10 dingers off Lawrie, and just to be conservative 10 more off the total of everyone else, and you'd still have 216 dingers, just from those nine guys alone.  Factor in the other homeruns we'll get off everyone else sent to the plate, and I'd be disappointed if the 2012 Jays don't hit well over 200 bombs.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, December 10 2011 @ 06:27 PM EST (#248391) #
Then again, the 2010 Jays were one of the best homerun hitting teams of all time, but a low OBP sunk them.  The lack of on base ability is still the offense's biggest weakness.
TamRa - Saturday, December 10 2011 @ 11:33 PM EST (#248404) #
Escobar (R) 12 homers, 280 ave, 356 obp, 410 slg, 766 ops.
Johnson (L) 22 homers, 256 ave, 368 obp, 448 slg, 816 ops.
Bautista (R) 38 homers, 310 ave, 420 obp, 535 slg, 955 ops.
Lawrie (R) 38 homers, 316 ave, 335 obp, 525 slg, 860 ops.
Lind (L) 27 homers, 268 ave, 325 obp, 485 slg, 810 ops.
EE (R) 25 homers, 262 ave, 325 obp, 475 slg, 800 ops.
Rasmus (L) 24 homers, 262 ave, 330 obp, 485 slg, 805 ops.
Arencibia (R) 28 homers, 248 ave, 305 obp, 502 slg, 807 ops.
Thames (L) 22 homers, 264 ave, 312 obp, 485 slg, 790 ops.


For me - Johnson and Lawrie are likely too high, I still think Lind will rebound some (I'm apparently a sucked for Farrell and AA's excuse making)

Johnson - His average season before Arizona was 15 homers, he hit 3 in Toronto which is a rate that works out to 14 a year. and he had 10 road homers in 2010 in almost exactly the same at bats as he had at home (where he hit 16) - though in fairness it was almost even in 2011.

22 for him is probably the absolute ceiling, which he might reach but I'd take the under. - call it 18 or so at most.

Lawrie - If he has that year he ill flat set the AL on FIRE. I love being optimistic but I dare not hope he will so much as reach 30 this year - although i do believe in the high average prediction, and think you have the OBP at least 20 points too low.

Lind has his faults, but homers are not among them - 25-30 is what he hits when he's having a bad year. I put him more at about 32-33

Still, something in the 220's is a fine year.



Also, I still believe in Snider. I think Thames would do about what you suggest if he wins the job, but I think Snider would do more than that if HE wins the job.
bpoz - Sunday, December 11 2011 @ 10:14 AM EST (#248410) #
That is great, but only as a start. Now, how about tweaking it.

1) Where is the black hole? I think you cannot pitch around anyone.
2) Thames/Snider... we lose nothing. I like it.
3) Injuries. McCoy would be a downgrade at 2B & SS. JPA goes down, another down grade, but d'Arnaud in the 2nd half & all of 2013 is protection, depth & flexibility if JPA can be used in other positions as well.
4) Who will clog up our bases?

I really like where this is going.
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