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Japan's newest bachelor, Yu Darvish, is about to get busy.  The bachelor has a number of suitors and Darvish will get to see which one likes him the best, monetarily speaking.  The bidding deadline for Darvish is 5pm today, Wednesday.

Over the next few days we will hear rumours and speculation as to which team bid what amount.  The actual final decision might not be announced until Monday.  There are several steps to go through:

Teams submit their bids by 5pm today.  The Yankees, red Sox, Rangers, Cubs, Nationals, Mariners and Blue Jays are all expected to bid.

Darvish's team, the Nippon Ham Fighters, evaluate the bids and they can either accept the top bid or decline the top bid.  It is 99.99999% certain that they will accept the top bid.  However they don't get paid until Darvish signs with a team.  The winning bidder migth not be named until Monday.

Once the (Ham) Fighters accept the bid, the winning team and Darvish have 30 days to negotiate a contract.  This could fall apart at either end.  Darvish is no doubt looking for big dollars.  The rumour is that he also would prefer to play for a West coast team.  Darvish could choose to not sign and stay in Japan.  The (Ham) Fighters would presumably not be happy to have him back.  

The two teams could fail to agree on a contract.  The posting process favours the selling team.  North American teams have to bid high to get the player and that reduces what they are willing to pay the player directly.  The player, Darvish, might consider the contract offer to be insulting.  Much of the press about Darvish suggests he has a big ego and satisfying him might be difficult.  Last season the A's were unable to come to terms with another Japanese player.

 

So over the next few days there will be many rumours and some facts.  Once the winner is announced there will be many more rumours until 11:59pm on the 30th day when a deal might be done.

Jeff Passan from Yahoo Sports has some background here.

The Bachelor - Yu Darvish Style | 189 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 05:08 PM EST (#248736) #
It seems to me that the Ham Fighters might not accept the top bid, having seen what happened last year when the A's outbid everyone else and did not reach a deal with the player.  The Ham Fighters have an interest in both receiving the maximum posting fee and in Darvish agreeing to terms.  Obviously, the chances of the second event occurring vary with the underlying financial resources of the club.
melondough - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 05:33 PM EST (#248740) #
But the Nippon Ham Fighters don't get to see who made the bid.  If they like the number my guess is that they will accept it.  I am shocked that the Red Sox did not bid (accroding to Boston Globe).
Mick Doherty - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 05:40 PM EST (#248743) #
Just for the record, the team's name is "Fighters" not "Ham Fighters." The team sponsor is Nippon Ham. So, then, Nippon Ham : Toronto :: Fighters: Blue Jays.
melondough - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 05:41 PM EST (#248744) #

Reposting this challenge here....

Just for fun I would like to suggest the following challenge.  Name the team and the posting amount. Person closest gets bragging rights.

My Rules (just for the heck of it):


Answers should include winning team name and amount (ie one line responses without explanation will make it easier to scroll through guesses)

All guesses must NOT end in the number 0.

Alll guesses must be in by 8pm tonight or before the winner is leaked/announced (whichever comes first).

melondough - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 05:49 PM EST (#248745) #

Bid guestimates made so far (taken from other thread and cannot be changed once made):

Melondough: Cubs $56,990,005

Greenfrog: Rangers $67,502,011

John Northey: Rangers $52,000,025

Mylegacy: Yankees $81,250,249.22 (I looked over the spelling of this one three times)

Mike Forbes: Nationals $55,500,001 (defaults to $1 at end)

Come on everyone lets have fun with this.  Takes 1 minute to make a guess (again just team name and amount if you want to play this game - no explanaton needed)

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 05:51 PM EST (#248746) #
I clicked on a new tab and added MLB homepage for a while.   I expect an announcement here first.   You notice when the Darvish $20.0 MM per year talk started.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 05:57 PM EST (#248748) #
New York Yankees 68 million. They have been too quiet for a team in desperate need of starting pitching.
85bluejay - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 05:57 PM EST (#248749) #
Nationals - 30 mil.
Landomar - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 05:58 PM EST (#248750) #
Yankees: $71,111,112
bpoz - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 05:58 PM EST (#248751) #
NYY $73,000,123. They cannot be quiet forever.
Kelekin - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 05:58 PM EST (#248752) #
Twins, Red Sox, and Orioles officially did not make bids.
Jonny German - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 06:00 PM EST (#248753) #
Blue Jays: $36,000,003

(AA's newest ninja move)
Kelekin - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 06:02 PM EST (#248754) #
Nationals: 46.1M.
rpriske - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 06:05 PM EST (#248756) #
Rangers $53, 025, 025
Ryan Day - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 06:10 PM EST (#248757) #
"Just for the record, the team's name is "Fighters" not "Ham Fighters.""

Technically correct, but this ignores the fact that "Ham Fighters" is funny.
Kelekin - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 06:13 PM EST (#248758) #
I would think a match-up between the Lehigh Valley IronPigs and the Nippon Ham Fighters would be quite a porker.
bpoz - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 06:27 PM EST (#248759) #
Kelekin. Thanks for the laugh!!!
raptorsaddict - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 06:43 PM EST (#248760) #
I like it!

In a previous post, I wrote: Darvish: 67.5m posting, 6 years at 10 (127.5).

Based on what I heard about the ability of his team to kick back part of the posting fee to me, this might end up being distributed differently. But my total remains 127,500,001.

raptorsaddict - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 06:45 PM EST (#248761) #
Oh, and WE win, by the way!
Mark - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 06:49 PM EST (#248762) #
Have to play:
Blue Jays : 38,120,001

melondough - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 07:03 PM EST (#248764) #

14 bid guestimates so far updated below (1 hour remains to post your bid):

Melondough: Cubs $56,990,005

Greenfrog: Rangers $67,502,011

John Northey: Rangers $52,000,025

Mylegacy: Yankees $81,250,249.22 (I looked over the spelling of this one three times)

Mike Forbes: Nationals $55,500,001 (defaults to $1 at end)

Whiterasta80: Yankees $68,000,001

85bluejay: Nationals $30,000,001

Landomar: Yankees $71,111,112

bpoz: Yankees $73,000,123

Jonny German: Blue Jays $36,000,003

Kelekin: Nationals $46,100,000

rpriske: Rangers: $53,025,025

rapportsaddict: Blue Jays 67,500,001

Mark: Blue Jays: $38,120,001

92-93 - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 07:11 PM EST (#248765) #
I have no clue who'll win but I like the 35-40m projections.
melondough - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 07:13 PM EST (#248766) #
Apparently the Yankees did NOT bid according to Buster Onley. Are we really to believe this? Why would someone in their front office leak this if not true. If true then three of your guesses will be wrong but I think most of you will be happy to be wrong if it means Yankees not getting Darvish.
92-93 - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 07:14 PM EST (#248767) #
Deep breaths, people. Olney tweeted that the Yankees DID post a bid.
hypobole - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 07:16 PM EST (#248769) #
Blue Jays $47,450,000. Rogers should be able to derive as much ancillary revenue from Darvish as any team in baseball considering the amount of marketing people and business connections they have.
Kelekin - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 07:17 PM EST (#248770) #
I read that wrong, too.

Angels and Rays did not make bids, which makes 5 teams officially out.  (and, more importantly, that 3 AL East teams did not make bids)

melondough - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 07:18 PM EST (#248771) #
Yankees DID in fact bid. The site where I saw it now corrected themselves (they originally had the word "not" which they have nowhere deleted). Sorry for the misinformation.
DaveB - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 07:24 PM EST (#248772) #
Yay, a contest.

Mariners: $50,000,001.

MrPurple - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 07:25 PM EST (#248773) #
$81 235 658     Blue Jays

Just because if I am right on this one it will be awesome. Oh and I vote for Ham Fighters all the way, soooo much better name.
Gerry - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 07:27 PM EST (#248774) #
Nationals $52.3M
melondough - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 07:31 PM EST (#248775) #
According to DKnobler tweet "sources say the Fighters were very excited about high the bid was".  Wonder if this means we will get a decision tonight.
CeeBee - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 07:31 PM EST (#248776) #
Blue Jays - 43,000,005
blu-j - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 07:32 PM EST (#248777) #
Mariners: $55,000,010 (trying to reverse-jinx for the Jays, couldn't pick them)
bball12 - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 07:35 PM EST (#248778) #
Haven't a clue who will get him - but where ever he lands - it has disaster written all over it.

I just hope it isnt the Blue Jays that pay for him.



Ron - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 07:39 PM EST (#248779) #
Yankees - 101 million + A Deter Jeter Gift Basket
melondough - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 07:42 PM EST (#248780) #

So I thought I would follow Don Nomura Twitter http://twitter.com/donnomura since he is a player agent in Japan.  Though it must be mentioned that he also tweeted last week that his sources told him the Jays won the posting on the Japanese second baseman that the Yankees actually won the rights to.  I am banking on him having some contacts in Japan to break the news/leak first (hopefully correctly).

melondough - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 07:51 PM EST (#248781) #

Less than 10 minuets left in this bidding game and we have 21 bid guestimates as updated below.  Get your bids in now if you have not yet!

Melondough: Cubs $56,990,005

Greenfrog: Rangers $67,502,011

John Northey: Rangers $52,000,025

Mylegacy: Yankees $81,250,249

Mike Forbes: Nationals $55,500,001

Whiterasta80: Yankees $68,000,001

85bluejay: Nationals $30,000,001

Landomar: Yankees $71,111,112

bpoz: Yankees $73,000,123

Jonny German: Blue Jays $36,000,003

Kelekin: Nationals $46,100,000

rpriske: Rangers $53,025,025

rapportsaddict: Blue Jays 67,500,001

Mark: Blue Jays $38,120,001

hypobole: Blue Jays $47,450,000

DaveB: Mariners $50,000,001

MrPurple: Blue Jays $81,235,658

Gerry: Nationals $52,300,001

CeeBee: Blue Jays $43,000,005

blu-j: Mariners $55,000,010

Ron: Yankees $101,000,001

dan gordon - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 07:54 PM EST (#248782) #
Rangers $56,666,666
greenfrog - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 07:59 PM EST (#248783) #
I'm a bit confused by this (from MLBTR): "Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports reports (on Twitter) that the Fighters plan to accept the posting bid no matter how large it is."

Wouldn't the Ham...er, Fighters *want* the bid to be as high as possible?
sam - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 08:04 PM EST (#248785) #
Mariners $68,000,000

melondough - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 08:04 PM EST (#248786) #
My guestimate game in now closed.  Thanks to the 22 for playing.  By the way Jon Heyman just tweeted that Yankees entered only a modest bid for Darvish and that all indications are that winning bid is sky high.
Mark - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 08:05 PM EST (#248787) #
Even if the highest bid was 10 million they would accept. In practice they don't have to accept the bid if they don't like it.
greenfrog - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 08:05 PM EST (#248788) #
From MLB Fake Rumors on twitter (this made me laugh):

"Mets accidentally bid $1,000,000,000 for Darvish."
braden - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 08:29 PM EST (#248790) #
One NBC Sports report said only four teams were thought to have bid: Jays, Cubs, Yankees, Rangers.

And if the Yanks submitted only a 'modest' bid, that could leave a 1/3 shot.

timpinder - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 08:33 PM EST (#248791) #
Marlins $70 million.
Mylegacy - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 08:37 PM EST (#248792) #
IF - that NBC report is true - Cubs win it for the bid I said the Yankees would pay. IF - it is WRONG - Nats win it for the bid I said the Yankees would make.
melondough - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 08:39 PM EST (#248793) #

Guestimate Game Results below by team in numerical order. 

Number of bids: 24 (Sam and Timpinder were late entries but becaue of the democracy we have here I will count them)

Number of teams chosen: 7 (Jays, Yankees, Rangers, Nationals, Mariners, Cubs, Marlins).  Guess I was alone in predicting the Cubs but I think they are going to win because GM has experience with process (Dice K).

Most guessed team: Blue Jays with 6 guesses (Yankees next with 5 guesses while Rangers tie Nationals for 3rd with four guesses each)

Highest 3 bids: Ron $101,000,000(NY), Mylegacy $81,250,249(NY), MrPurple $81,235,658(Jays)

Lowest bid: 85bluejay $30,000,000(Nats)

Blue Jays (6 bids):

MrPurple: $81,235,658

rapportsaddict: $67,500,001

hypobole: $47,450,000

CeeBee: $43,000,005

Mark: $38,120,001

Jonny German: $36,000,003

Yankees (5):

Ron: $101,000,000

Mylegacy: $81,250,249

bpoz: $73,000,123

Landomar: $71,111,112

Whiterasta80: $68,000,001

Rangers (4):

Greenfrog: $67,502,011

dan gordan: $56,666,666

rpriske: $53,025,025

John Northey: $52,000,025

Nationals (4):

Mike Forbes: $55,500,001

Gerry: $52,300,001

Kelekin: $46,100,000

85bluejay: $30,000,001

Mariners (3):

Sam: $68,000,000

blu-j: $55,000,010

DaveB: $50,000,001

Marlins (1):

Timpinder: $70,000,001

Cubs (1):

Melondough: $56,990,005

 

Thomas - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 08:41 PM EST (#248795) #
Nationals $59 million.
TamRa - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 08:54 PM EST (#248797) #
Latest update on MLBTR lists the following teams as reported to have not made a bid:

Marlins
Mets
Yankees (Heyman disagrees, calls bid "modest")
Rays
Angels
Twins
Red Sox
Orioles


If the Yanks and Red Sox are truly out - and the Rangers don't win (although some feel that ballpark would hurt him) then I can be content if we lose out on a good effort.
grjas - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 08:56 PM EST (#248798) #
Nice to have a thread without incessant whining about payroll parameters. Hopefully the fact they bid at all will calm down the yelping.

Am too late to make the official list, but what the hell- the Jays and $50mm.  Rogers is in a Christmas spending mood. I hope.

Mylegacy - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 08:57 PM EST (#248800) #
Tamra - if he's in the NL - Yu know I don't care.
johnny was - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 09:42 PM EST (#248804) #
FYI, Dick Griffin says, "According to Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos, the winning bid will be announced on Dec. 22 at 5 p.m."


Dave Rutt - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 09:57 PM EST (#248805) #
That'd be the official announcement, but word will certainly trickle down before then. It'd better, my productivity depends on it.
Lylemcr - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 10:18 PM EST (#248806) #

It looks like it is Jays or Rangers. I think it will be rangers for 56 million.

Sherrystar - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 10:26 PM EST (#248807) #
If it's the Rangers, go luck to Yu pitching in that park.
youngid - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 11:06 PM EST (#248809) #
Jays: $41,634,112.34
sam - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 11:13 PM EST (#248810) #
You'd expect a leak by now, I think the lack of one might be good news for the usually tight-lipped Jays.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 11:45 PM EST (#248811) #
  • If you go here: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/deadline-for-darvish-bids-4pm-central-today.html you get this:
  • The Giants did not bid on Darvish, according to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link).
  • The A's didn't bid on Darvish, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (on Twitter).
  • The Marlins did not bid on Darvish, according to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald (on Twitter).
  • The Mets didn't place a bid, Howard Megdal of the Journal News reports.
  • The Yankees' bid is modest, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (on Twitter). Indications are the winning bid is "sky high."
  • Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports reports (on Twitter) that the Fighters plan to accept the posting bid no matter how large it is.
  • The Nippon Ham Fighters were very excited by how large the high bid was according to Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com (on Twitter). Still no word on the the money, though.
  • The Yankees did post a bid, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (Twitter link). 
  • The Rays did not bid, according to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times (on Twitter).
  • The Angels did not bid on Darvish, according to MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez (on Twitter).
  • Three MLB executives speculated that the Blue Jays and Rangers are candidates to win the bidding for Darvish, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter).
  • The Twins did not bid on Darvish, according to Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune (on Twitter).
  • The Red Sox did not bid on Darvish, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe (on Twitter).
  • At least one team submitted a bid on Darvish, according to Jack Curry of the YES Network (on Twitter).  Nippon, which doesn't know the identity of the MLB team that won the bidding, must decide whether to accept the high bid by Tuesday.
  • One MLB official expects an announcement  regarding the winning bid tonight or tomorrow morning, tweets Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post.
  • The Orioles are not bidding on Darvish, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports (on Twitter).
  • Darvish has more leverage than any previous player coming from Japan to MLB, one executive tells Yahoo's Jeff Passan, because the righty seems willing to stay with the Fighters.  In October, my poll of five agents and one team executive showed that they felt he has the leverage to extract a five or six-year deal worth $72-75MM from the winning team, on top of a posting fee for the Fighters ranging from $30-55MM.  Passan's survey of six executives suggests the Rangers and Blue Jays are favorites for Darvish and the Nationals, Yankees, and Mariners may submit bids.  Darvish appears to have a strong preference for the West Coast.  Passan feels that the higher the posting fee gets, the less likely Darvish is to sign.
  • In a poll of over 26,000 MLBTR readers yesterday, 27% felt the Yankees would win the bid, followed by 17% for the Blue Jays and 15% for the Rangers
  • Ryan C - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 02:13 AM EST (#248815) #
    If Heyman is correct, then I don't like the Blue Jays chances since I cannot fathom AA making a "sky high" bid on anything.


    Forkball - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 08:51 AM EST (#248816) #
    I'm obviously late to the party here, but I think how Dice-K played out will scare teams off enough where the bidding will be lower, say $44 million to the Mariners.  (If I remember correctly, the Red Sox were about $20 million higher than the next highest bidder).

    I know the Rangers and Jays are considered the favorites, but as a few people guessed, I think the Nationals and Mariners will have just as much chance to win.  And really, AA hasn't acted like the type that will go beyond a specific number in other dealings so I'd be surprised if he's the high bid (as it's usually irrationally high like most free agents).

    And if the bid is indeed 'sky-high' I'd guess that it's either the Nationals or Rangers (and my official prediction is probably low).
    rpriske - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 08:53 AM EST (#248817) #

    If it was AA saying when the announcement would come then they at least think their bid is competitive.

     

    I don't think 'sky-high' means what some people think. I also think some of these guesses are ridiculously high. Remember that anything over 51.1 (If memory serves) would be the highest ever, which would make the bid 'sky-high'.

    TamRa - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 08:56 AM EST (#248818) #
    "If Heyman is correct..."

    First time for everything.

    I can't remember the last time he mentioned the Jays in a rumor and was correct so I have a low opinion.
    Flex - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 09:19 AM EST (#248819) #
    If "sky high" is true then I suspect it's the Rangers.

    Too bad. All I want for Christmas is a Yu Darvish.
    braden - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 09:27 AM EST (#248820) #
    Per Jim Bowden, the Jays (and Rangers) did submit bids.
    damos - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 09:33 AM EST (#248821) #
    My guess - Rangers win with $62 million.
    John Northey - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 09:44 AM EST (#248822) #
    I'm wondering if the Jays did what I suggested. Namely bid extra high then lowball in the contract and force the Japanese team to give up most of its posting fee to get the player to sign on the dotted line. After all, $20 million is better than $0 although not as nice as potentially $40-60 million.
    bpoz - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 09:56 AM EST (#248823) #
    Nice strategy John N. Is that poker or chess.
    melondough - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 09:57 AM EST (#248824) #

    I'm wondering if the Jays did what I suggested. Namely bid extra high then lowball in the contract and force the Japanese team to give up most of its posting fee to get the player to sign on the dotted line. 

    John did you find it somewhere that this is actually permitted?  If so does it permit the Japanese team to pay Darvish a lump sum or an annual amount?  Also does it permit them to pay the winning MLB team (i.e. rebate them) in order to make the signing more likely?

    I see that about 7 hours ago Jim Bowden tweeted that MLB is expected to make the Darvish winner known this morning.  Seems odd that he is the only one who posting that.  Wouldn't there be some sort of mention of this on another site/tweet?  Anyone see anything posted elsewhere?

    BalzacChieftain - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 10:06 AM EST (#248825) #
    I'm guessing AA has a contingency plan if the Jays do not get Darvish. He's made it quite well known that he's after an SP. Knowing the rumour mill may be completely false as per the usual when it comes to the Jays' supposed interest in Beltran, it makes sense to see the Jays go after him and then trading an OF (Snider or Thames) + prospects for a starting pitcher if the Yu bid falls through.
    greenfrog - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 10:17 AM EST (#248826) #
    The Cubbies certainly could be an aggressive bidder. Landing Darvish would allow Epstein to make a big splash and give him a big arm for the first half-dozen years of his GM tenure. Plus, Epstein may have gotten used to having lots of spending room on his credit card in Boston and may be craving some retail therapy.
    melondough - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 10:21 AM EST (#248827) #

    Plus, Epstein may have gotten used to having lots of spending room on his credit card in Boston and may be craving some retail therapy.

    This is exactly what I said and is why I guessed Cubs with a bid of about $57M would win. Very surprised that nobody else here picked the Cubs.  I thnk if the Jays win the bid that they will actually go all in and sign Beltran as well.

    melondough - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 10:27 AM EST (#248828) #

    I just got a neat Holidays Greeting Card from my Blue Jays account rep.  Nicely done.

    https://mlb411.mlb.com/greetingcards/html/trevor.johnson@bluejays.com_20111215101538.html

    Anders - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 10:41 AM EST (#248829) #
    I'm wondering if the Jays did what I suggested. Namely bid extra high then lowball in the contract and force the Japanese team to give up most of its posting fee to get the player to sign on the dotted line. After all, $20 million is better than $0 although not as nice as potentially $40-60 million.

    There is no way that this is allowed. And even if it was, there are presumably 10 other teams that would easily beat that price, so why wouldn't the team just keep Darvish for another year and re-post him, or complain to MLB that it was a bad faith bid and ask to negotiate with the second team.
    greenfrog - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 10:42 AM EST (#248831) #
    I would be happy if the Jays win but my gut feeling is that they probably submitted an Anderson Cooper bid (ie, "keeping them honest"), maybe in the $30-50M range, rather than a "sky-high" one.
    John Northey - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 10:46 AM EST (#248832) #
    Sadly I cannot find the article I read way back when (during Dice-K) that said it could be done. Logically though there is no reason a team in Japan couldn't do so via various means if they aren't allowed to do so directly. They could give the player an 'exit bonus' (ala most CEO's), a contact to a close relative who gives it to the player, pay it to a numbered company the player owns for 'marketing' purposes or something.

    Lots of ways around rules if you really want to do so. Plus, of course, Beeston is well known for being creative with accounting rules - from his famous 'I can turn a $2 million profit into a loss and get every accounting firm to agree with it' line to the Roger Clemens 'forced trade' clause. If Beeston wants something, he normally gets it (outside of Al Leiter).
    greenfrog - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 10:47 AM EST (#248833) #
    Latest from MLBTR. Make of it what you will:

    9:43am: There's "buzz" that Toronto had a "whopper of an offer," according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (on Twitter). Grant suggests the Rangers bid in the $40-49MM range.
    braden - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 10:50 AM EST (#248834) #

    I've got a feeling the Jays are the high bidder. It would totally fit in with AA zigging when you expect him to zag.

    John Northey - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 10:51 AM EST (#248835) #
    As to why 10 other teams wouldn't do what I suggested - same reason people didn't become free agents after playing out their 'option year' back in Ruth's day. No one thought of doing it, or were not willing to risk doing it.

    As to re-posting - Darvish is a Japanese free agent after this season so they couldn't re-post him, plus he'd be one more year away from being a full-free agent and able to keep 100% of the posting fee for himself. Bad faith? More of a case but the rules clearly do not prevent it and, like when Oakland won a posting but didn't sign the player, they could end up with $0 should they push it. Given their situation (most say they are a cash poor team right now) they'd grumble but live with it as long as it was profitable for them.
    ayjackson - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 11:00 AM EST (#248836) #

    I came across that too John, but don't remember where.  Nippon Ham might have to get involved to get the deal done.  Smart tactic from bidding team, knowing that their number is the total number (say $120m) and bids high enough to ensure it wins, then lets the posting team pay compensation to Darvish.

    Daniels and Anthopoulos were in Japan this year.  I wonder if either of them had discussions with Nippon Ham at that time.

    Wildrose - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 11:12 AM EST (#248837) #
    Sadly I cannot find the article I read way back when (during Dice-K) that said it could be done. Logically though there is no reason a team in Japan couldn't do so via various means if they aren't allowed to do so directly. They could give the player an 'exit bonus' (ala most CEO's), a contact to a close relative who gives it to the player, pay it to a numbered company the player owns for 'marketing' purposes or something.

    I'm with Anders on this one. My recollection from the Dice-K contract situation is directly opposite to the one you have John, the thought of circumventing the posting fee by giving a kick-back to the player was bandied about quite frequently on Primer back in the day. The general consensus was sure you could do it, but if anybody from MLB or the Japanese league ever got wind of it - game over. The miscreants would face severe penalties, similar to what the NBA did to Kevin McHale and the TWolves over Joe Smith.

    I guess if you were desperate enough you could try it, but is it worth losing you're job over? 
    John Northey - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 11:16 AM EST (#248839) #
    Someone at BBTF says it is against the rules to pay some of the posting fee to the player. Over there they also have everyone sub-$50 but the Jays above $50 mil. If so then this winter just got a whole lot more interesting.

    If the Jays win, would it be smart to do a 10 year deal instead of a 5-6 year one? Then you increase your exposure (more money to Darvish) but you also guarantee he is here for pretty much his entire prime (age 25-34 seasons).
    FisherCat - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 11:29 AM EST (#248840) #

    Slight Correction to your explanation of the Team Name...

    Hokkaido is a region in Japan akin to Ontario being a province of Canada

    Nippon Ham is the commonly used name for the company "Nippon Meat Packers" like saying Rogers is short for Rogers Communications

    Fighters is the team name, like the Blue Jays.

    Soooo, to put it another way, the home town team would look as follows:

    "Ontario Rogers Blue Jays"  weird huh?

    DaveB - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 11:30 AM EST (#248841) #
    As to re-posting - Darvish is a Japanese free agent after this season so they couldn't re-post him

    According to NPB Tracker,  a reliable source of information, Darvish is not a free agent until after the 2014 NPB season.


    ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 11:41 AM EST (#248842) #
    I've remained skeptical about both the advisability, and likelihood, of the Jays signing Darvish.

    One of the 'rules' winning Rotisserie owners go by (I know this only by observation, unfortunately) is that they avoid guys switching leagues because the imagination almost always exceeds the reality. In this case, it's much worse than a guy coming from the NL to the AL, in that not only is the quality markedly lower, but also pitchers seldom pitch on 4 days rest. Darvish usually pitched once a week. I'd be even more vigilant after the Matsuzaka breakdown.

    I think he's likely to be wildly over-priced and thus a mis-allocation of resources. Reading some of the estimates of a 100 to 130 million cost for six-years of a second starter seems totally at odds with everything Anthopolous should and does stand for. It seems like the sort of deal for the Yankees, for whom money is easily replaceable and who are already in the playoff mix right now, or the Nationals, who did the Werth contract.

    I'd be much happier with Gio Gonzalez. Although some have commented about his home park, his road era last year was 3.62, which means a lot more to me at least than Darvishes numbers. It means less to me that Darvishes numbers are better than Matsuzaka's than it does they were compiled in a much lesser league against much lesser hitters, and usually on 6 days rest.

    I also wonder about the extent to which Darvish is interested in coming to Toronto - a team that is neither on the west coast, nor in a major market, nor even in the United States.

    I truly hope Toronto didn't bid $50 million for him. There's a reason the Red Sox apparently passed.
    Gwyn - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 11:52 AM EST (#248843) #
    I'd be even more vigilant after the Matsuzaka breakdown.

    DiceK was heavily over-worked as a youngster, Darvish has had a completely different career in terms of workload.

    Anders - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 11:59 AM EST (#248844) #

    Sadly I cannot find the article I read way back when (during Dice-K) that said it could be done. Logically though there is no reason a team in Japan couldn't do so via various means if they aren't allowed to do so directly. They could give the player an 'exit bonus' (ala most CEO's), a contact to a close relative who gives it to the player, pay it to a numbered company the player owns for 'marketing' purposes or something.

    That is like saying logically there is no reason why the Yankees couldn't offer Fielder a 10 year, 10 million dollar contract, and then have YES pay him a 200 million dollar endorsement deal so that the Yankees could avoid paying the luxury tax, or hire his mother and pay her $20 million a year to write a blog - "Today Prince ripped the seat of another pair of pants." Clearly MLB would never allow this, regardless of whether there are written rules or not. So there is an extremely logical reason why teams don't circumvent the rules. Not that the world is a logical place, but it would be pointless to have a system that was so easily contravened.

    92-93 - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 12:00 PM EST (#248845) #
    I too do not understand the enthusiasm about a player at that price that the majority of people have never even seen pitch. If you're going to tell me years 6-8 represent a huge risk on Fielder, let me point out that years 1-5 represent an even bigger risk on Darvish. If Darvish's posting fee is anywhere the value of Mark Buehrle's total contract that's just nuts.
    John Northey - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 12:14 PM EST (#248846) #
    I think it all depends on a ton of factors. We all know that Ichiro, for example, was easily worth double what he was paid (posting plus salary) for his early years. We also know that most postings have resulted in guys who were good but not worth the money (Dice-K the most famous) while some were total disasters (Kei Igawa the most expensive).

    Darvish is viewed as unique. He has build, raw stats, and youth on his side. I don't think a player his age has come over yet, especially not one with his pedigree. Plus if you look at the Jays record they are willing to pay to get talent in the door ($500k for a sandwich pick for example, and taking on Teahen's contract to get Rasmus) with the notable exception of their top draft pick last year. If AA regretted not spending $30 million to get the Cuban pitcher a couple years ago one wonders how far he'd be willing to go for a guy with more of a track record.

    We'll know soon enough I'm sure.
    melondough - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 12:16 PM EST (#248847) #

    Come on...stop already with the second class runner up mentality of hoping that the Jays make ONLY prudent cost conscious transactions. It's only money and Rogers have plenty of it. Regardless of how well he pitches I can't imagine he will be a dud and he is so closely followed in Japan that the Jays could probably make a good portion back in the first few years on increased attendance revenues and merchandise alone.

    As for his desire to come to Toronto...who knows? But I can imagine Paul and Alex sitting down with him and saying "kid you won't only have a city behind you but the whole country". I am just thinking about how much national exposure the Jays will get. I highly doubt they would be left off the Game of Week when Darvish is pitching during prime time.

    Think about all the benefits over and above the performance he will bring to the team. Other free agents would likely look at Toronto as a better destination to consider, attendance revenue home and away would rise, buzz would sky rocket, and this could very well be the first step in successfully convincing Rogers to spend now on other parts to build a winner now.

    Let’s think big and forget the downside risk for once. The upside is just too large to ignore.  I still don't think the Jays will get him though.  All this buzz is just that...buzz.  Where does a Dallas Morning News guy get his information that nobody else has?  Gut still says he goes to Cubs with crazy high bid.

    Mike Green - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 12:18 PM EST (#248848) #
    Like many (I am sure), I have seen the video, read the many, many scouting reports and reviewed the statistical record.

    I thought when Matsuzaka was posted that he would be good for an ERA between 3.5 and 4.  That was pretty much where he was the first two seasons.  And that was in a higher run-scoring environment than obtains today.  I think that Darvish is likely to sit between 2.75 and 3.25, as long as he is healthy.  Every pitcher is a gamble (due to the very significant risk of injury), but if you are going to gamble on one, Darvish is the one I would do it for.



    ayjackson - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 12:19 PM EST (#248849) #

    A couple of thoughts.

    1.  How much would Strasbourg have gone for if there were no draft?

    2.  Given we have a draft and a capped Latin Market, how much is the opportunity to have exclusive rights to a player outside of the draft and Latin Market worth? 

    We saw $30m for Chapman.  There's much more known about Darvish and he seems much more the finished product.  Plus, there are no places (options) left to spend the developmental cash.

    greenfrog - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 12:26 PM EST (#248850) #
    Another tweet from Evan Grant:

    Evan_P_Grant Evan Grant
    @ryan_the_great No am not saying Jays won. Am speculating based on buzz they bid over $50 mm.
    1 hour ago

    Sounds like the guy really doesn't have a clue.
    Ryan Day - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 12:28 PM EST (#248851) #
    "I don't think a player his age has come over yet..."

    Nomo was only 26 in his first MLB season, though he did it through a contract loophole.
    sam - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 12:32 PM EST (#248852) #
    I understand that teams have not been formally notified whether they won the bidding or if Darvish's team will be selecting the bid, but I suspect that teams probably have a good idea by now. You've got to believe that the lack of information has AA written all over it
    Ryan Day - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 12:39 PM EST (#248853) #
    I think that's giving AA a bit too much credit. Virtually no one is talking about how much they did or didn't bid, and no one seemed clear on whether the Yankees had bid or not until after the deadline - and people are always talking about what the Yankees are doing.

    Anthopoulos does not have super powers, or his own private CSIS squad.
    James W - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 12:46 PM EST (#248854) #
    Sounds like the guy really doesn't have a clue.

    He's the writer who voted Michael Young 1st in the MVP voting.

    ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 12:47 PM EST (#248855) #
    DiceK was heavily over-worked as a youngster, Darvish has had a completely different career in terms of workload.

    I would be hesitant about ascribing with certainty Matsuzaka's difficulties to his differential workload. There is a difference between pitching on 4 and 6 days rest. If there weren't, I'm sure the Japanese team would be happily pitching Darvish on 4 days all the time. I don't know how much of Matsuzaka's difficulties, if any, arose from his early workload and how much, if any, arose from switching to 4 days rest. I don't know if anyone does. But I would not assert any certainty that it was only a result of early workload and assert that there is no issue in switching from 6 days rest to 4.

    I also note that Darvish has thrown 200 innings a year since he was 20, except for 2009 when he had arm problems and I don't have his pre-age 20 innings.
    Ron - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 12:50 PM EST (#248856) #
    We also know that most postings have resulted in guys who were good but not worth the money (Dice-K the most famous)

    As a Red Soxs fan, I feel like Dick-K has been worth every single penny.  I've mentioned this before, but when people judge contracts they never take into account the biggest question, did the player help the team win the World Series? I still remember his hit off Josh Fogg to break the game open during Game 3 of the World Series. A championship creates a lifetime of memories that can never be taken away. If the Jays signed Fielder to a 8 year contract and he helped the Jays win the World Series the first season but hit like Mike McCoy the next 7 seasons, the contract still would have been worth every penny.
    Mylegacy - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 12:52 PM EST (#248857) #
    As I understand it - the Ham FIghters have a series of "numbers" - no names of teams are tied to the "numbers" - IF they accept the highest "number" they notify MLB in NY (right now it's 9.47 am here in BC - that makes it 11.47 PM in Japan - if I've done that right). Obviously, if they didn't notify MLB during the day they surely aren't going to do so until sometime tomorrow (their time) - we've got at least another 10 hours before MLB is notified.

    So we wait.

    NO BODY knows S*IT.

    Me included: I suspect that AA made a GOOD bid based on his assessment of Yu's "value." That's why I think our bid is in the mid to high $40 million area. Until we hear I still think the Yankees have the bid.

    John Northey - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 01:01 PM EST (#248858) #
    But if the Sox had a bit of bad luck and lost in 2007 would've Dice-K been worth it?

    I was able to accept losing Jeff Kent, losing out on Randy Johnson (the Rickey trade cost the guy the Mariners wanted - if Gillick was a bit slimier he would've canceled the Rickey trade but he was a man of his word), losing Jimmy Key, enduring Jack Morris 1993 due to winning the two world series. Were those all good moves? Some yes, some no. If the team wins it all everything is good. If not it isn't. But AA and other GM's have to evaluate based on getting chances at the title, as once the playoffs begin it is a heck of a crapshoot.
    Richard S.S. - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 01:03 PM EST (#248859) #
    If only to drive us crazy : http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/latest-on-yu-darvish-bidding-process.html : 9:43am: There's "buzz" that Toronto had a "whopper of an offer," according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (on Twitter). Grant suggests the Rangers bid in the $40-49MM range.
    Rich - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 01:11 PM EST (#248860) #
    I hope the Jays roll the dice on Darvish with an outrageous bid.  No question it's a big risk, but I think it's one worth taking under the circumstances.  This is a good club, not a great one, and it could use more elite-level talent, which Darvish has a chance to be.  Rogers is one of the wealthiest owners in the game and we have repeatedly heard the club does have the dough to bump the payroll significantly.  If the Rangers don't get him I'll be surprised but I don't have an issue with the Jays spending $100 million or more (bid and contract) to try and make it work.
    greenfrog - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 01:14 PM EST (#248861) #
    But was it a flame-broiled whopper of a bid?
    ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 01:23 PM EST (#248862) #
    It's only money and Rogers have plenty of it.

    True, but I doubt Rogers has plenty of money as a result of 'devil-may-care' investment decisions where an investment of 100 million or more is made without likelihood of return. The fact that Rogers has money in its communications business doesn't mean it'll be enthusiastically tossed away in its baseball business. I imagine they're all the more aware of that after a number of expensive contracts ended up in the red column, with players either not playing or playing for other teams on Rogers' dime. I'm sure they make those decisions in a sensible business-like fashion, which may disappoint some of the fans, but that's why we're fans and they're guys running a successful business.

    My guess is that they rely on Anthopoulos and Beeston virtually entirely to make those calls, and I don't think either of those guys are going to adopt the 'Rogers has lots of dough so let's just spend it without regard to return' approach either.
    ayjackson - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 01:27 PM EST (#248863) #

    right now it's 9.47 am here in BC - that makes it 11.47 PM in Japan - if I've done that right

    Tokyo is 14 hrs ahead of EST.  So they'd be 17 hours ahead of you.  Right now, it's 1:30pm in Toronto, and 3:30 am (Friday) in Tokyo.  They've had a full business day to mull it over so far.

    Ron - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 01:30 PM EST (#248864) #
    But if the Sox had a bit of bad luck and lost in 2007 would've Dice-K been worth it?

    My answer would be no although it could change depending on what happens this seasons. I'm sure there are people out there thinking that going by my logic the Zito contract was worth it for the Giants because they won the World Series. My answer is no because he wasn't even on the post season roster.

    To use another example, I think the Rasmus trade was worth it for the Cardinals. Rasmus could morph into Bonds the next 3 seasons and it still wouldn't change the fact the trade helped the Cardinals win the World Series.
    gnor - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 01:36 PM EST (#248865) #
    I just completed my registration, so Hi everybody, and I am enjoying the comments.
    I also didn't get in on the bidding lottery, so here is my take anyway. The closest comparable is Dice-k, and Boston bid $51.5 mil, so anybody bidding on Darvish will figure other teams will beat that. Look for the winner to be in the $60-65 million range. Darvish is also bigger, taller, younger, and better than Dice-k, so we can figure he will want another $60 mil over 6 years. Some team is going to commit to a a front loaded $125-130 million for a pitcher that has yet to throw a major league pitch.
    Let's put that in perspective: You could hire 1.5 Mark Buehrles for that, who would pitch over 1700 innings, if he continued at his present rate. You could hire Doc, or Cliff Lee for 6 years at their present Phillies pay scale. There are also a lot of younger pitchers out there that make less money that can do the same job.
    Given this, I am really hoping that The Blue Jays don't win the bidding war, because I think there are a lot better ways for them to spend their money.


    Ducey - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 01:38 PM EST (#248866) #

    As a Red Soxs fan...

    Security!

    Lylemcr - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 01:47 PM EST (#248867) #

    Part of me wonders if Darvish is different than other free agents.

    1. He doesn't cost picks

    2. Budgeting - A big chunk of the money is needed upfront.  Because of contracts that were off the books last year, I wonder if there is a little more one-time money available.  The Jays don't want to sign a contract like Vernon Wells again, because it might cost them when some of thier young players start asking for raises.

    Just saying...

    ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 01:55 PM EST (#248868) #
    creates a lifetime of memories that can never be taken away

    If Rogers is to become a charity and start putting hundreds of millions into the business of 'creating a lifetime of memories', regardless of the likelihood of a business return, then I can think of a lot a ways to donate $100 million better than 'creating memories' for online baseball fans. RIM, for example, is likely on the brink, and there are a lot of K-W jobs that could be saved in the short-term at least, with a $100 million charitable donation.

    Better still, World Vision offers the opportunity to sponsor children throughout the world and $100 million would go a long way. I'm sure posters here can nominate numerous pet charities for someone else to give their money to. 'Creating a lifetime of memories' seems like the advertisement of wedding photographers, or Mastercard, more than an investment strategy in a baseball team. You might as well begin with "Money's no object - actually your money's no object where my memories are concerned.
    Rich - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 02:06 PM EST (#248870) #
    True, but I doubt Rogers has plenty of money as a result of 'devil-may-care' investment decisions where an investment of 100 million or more is made without likelihood of return. ...I'm sure they make those decisions in a sensible business-like fashion, which may disappoint some of the fans, but that's why we're fans and they're guys running a successful business.

    My guess is that they rely on Anthopoulos and Beeston virtually entirely to make those calls, and I don't think either of those guys are going to adopt the 'Rogers has lots of dough so let's just spend it without regard to return' approach either.


    You raise a number of interesting points about which reasonable people can disagree.  Obviously Darvish is a risk but I'm not sure I would characterize signing him as being "without likelihood of a return".  We can argue about his chances of succeeding but I would suggest there is the possibility of a very large return indeed.

    Yes, Rogers is a very successful business and they certainly do know how to make money.  We still pay attention to professional sports because as fans, we at least hope that the owners of our teams genuinely want to win championships (as Rogers claims they do).  Sometimes this may mean taking a financial risk and / or investing money in the product in the hopes of on-field success.  This is the perfect opportunity to acquire a potentially elite talent without having to pay in players, prospects, or draft picks - the cost is cash and Rogers is one of the wealthiest owners in the sport.  So how much do they actually want to win baseball games?  Fans have been waiting since the day Ricciardi was hired for the club to acknowledge it was time for them to content and here were are, 8 years later, still wondering if that day has come yet or if we are still waiting on our much-lauded farm system.

    As for AA and Beeston, if the Jays did make a bid as all reports seem to indicate then they obviously feel Darvish would provide a sizable ROI.


    gnor - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 02:07 PM EST (#248871) #
    I like your thinking, which is why I don't think the Blue Jays are going to get into any high cost, long term deals like committing to Darvish anytime soon. While Rogers likely has the money to buy and sell The Steinbrenners before breakfast, they also have to account for their money, and satisfy their shareholders. They have repeatedly stated that they have "flexibility", and never have they said that they have "loads of cash". There's a difference. They have also said that they have flexibility if "it makes sense". To me, spending Sabathia-like money on a pitcher that has never thrown a pitch in The Show, or paying Fielder top dollar to hit 15 more homers than Adam Lind doesn't make sense. There are far more cost-effective ways to get the job done.
    There are 2 ways to buy your veggies: you can go to the market and buy them off the shelf, or you can put in a garden and grow them yourself. The home-grown variety are cheaper, better for you, and infinitely more satisfying. Pass me the hoe, please.

    whiterasta80 - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 02:17 PM EST (#248872) #

    Daisuke could have came close to earning his contract if not for injuries.  His first 2 seasons on that contract actually were pretty good.  It was only once the injuries started taking their toll that he fell off the map. Those injuries may also have brought to light motivation issues, but that's another discussion. 

    Regardless, this is a guy who finished 4th in ROY and Cy Young voting his first two seasons. Darvish is a risk, no doubt, but he should give at least some value even if things don't work out as well as they should. The best case scenario is he is the pitching equivalent of Ichiro, and he gives us the next in a long line of Cy young calibre aces, relegates Ricky to 1B/2 and makes us competitive. 

    Rich - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 02:21 PM EST (#248873) #
    paying Fielder top dollar to hit 15 more homers than Adam Lind doesn't make sense. There are far more cost-effective ways to get the job done.

    I respectfully disagree.  It's not just the 15 extra homers that make Fielder worth the money - it's also the .415 OBP versus Lind's .295.  So Lind is cheaper but he's also much less productive.

    The Jays do have a lot of homegrown, cheap talent with more on the way and I'm all for that.  As Bill James wrote when the Jays signed Morris and Winfield (paraphrasing here, it was 20 years ago): you don't build a good team by signing elite free agents but it can be an effective strategy for good teams that have a few holes to fill.  I would say the Jays aren't that far off from being a playoff team and adding a talent or two like Darvish or Fielder may well pay a very large return.
    melondough - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 02:23 PM EST (#248874) #

    Fangraphs actually just posted their analysis of who would be comparables. They started with 11 pitchers age 25 that pitched at least 150 innings last year: Price, Cueto, Zimmermann, F.Hernandez, Harrison, Gallardo, G.Gonzalez, W.Davis, Gee, Jurrjens, and Collmenter. They then filtered that down from there by removing the lefties (Gonzalez, Price, Harrison) as well as those not as proficient as Darvish in inducing a ground out (Gee, Jurrjens, Collmenter and Davis).

    That left them with 4 pitchers – Hernandez, Zimmermann, Cueto, and Gallardo. They ask the question: “If these pitchers were on the open market what kind of contracts would they demand?”

    They note that Darvish could make as much as $8 million in arbitration in Japan next year and that he will need a short term raise to come to North America. Another fair point is that the $52 Million paid to Dice K on his 6 year deal is worth closer to $60 Million today with inflation taken into account (by the way they also note that the second best bid on Matsuzaka was $40 Million back in 2007).

    So I would say that a 6 year $60M contract is a bare bones minimum (and it will take more I am sure) and they feel $100M over 5 years including posting fee would be the number to consider.  As he states in the article “if you think that is too much for Darvish, note the floor of the four players, represented by Cueto, is not too far from $100 Million himself”.

    As they say, young pitchers are worth a lot of money and imply Darvish could indeed be Zimmerman or better.  They ask the question "how much would you pay for the 25 year old Jordan Zimmerman if all it took was cash?" How would you answer this question?

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/how-much-would-yu-pay-for-jordan-zimmermann/

    hypobole - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 02:46 PM EST (#248875) #
    What difference does it make that the majority of us haven't seen Darvish pitch? The majority of Jay fans never saw Brett Lawrie play in Vegas, yet the hype that preceded his major league arrival was tremendous. That's the way it is. People get excited about draft picks who have never played beyond high school. But if scouts say a player is tremendous, the fan base of the team picking him can't help but be enthused.

    Re: Dice-K. He had an ERA+ of 160 his second season after a 108 his MLB rookie year. What derailed him was injuring himself at the World Baseball Classic and refusing to tell the Sox. He altered his delivery to compensate, causing further injuries, and has never regained his form.

    If the Jays/Rogers don't think they can recoup a sizable portion of their bid, it won't be high. I'd have to think they've thought of numerous ways to make money off the Darvish brand, both here and abroad.
    markham_jay - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 02:52 PM EST (#248876) #
    A lot of mixed emotions.  I'd be excited to see Darvish on the team but I'm also apprehensive in seeing +20(?) million a year gambled on a unestablished MLB player (if it was King Félix I'd be all for it).  You can't overlook the impact on future spending if, in a worse case scenario, the player is a bust.  Whatever happens I've got faith in AA and his scouts that they performed their due diligence in the matter.

    Now, I don't want to delve too much into race or the demographics of Toronto or the fact that the Asian population is make up of different ethnicities - some of whom don't like each other all that much - and all that crazy stuff that shouldn't be talked about in a baseball forum but I gotta chime in quickly and lay to rest the notion that a couple people might have that signing Yu will draw in the Asian crowd.  That's generic thinking akin to believing that having a Canadian superstar on the team will draw in lots of Canadian fans -  and the last time I was at a game with Lawrie the place was still half empty (I even checked the boxscore to ensure this was before his finger fracture as his absence from the lineup could very well have been the reason why the attendance was so poor).  Previous posters have said, and evidence has confirmed, that players/big FA signings offer at best only temporary boosts in attendance.  Only a winning team will sustain the fans.
    ayjackson - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 02:55 PM EST (#248877) #
    Every starting pitching prospect in baseball is asked to move to a 4-day rest pitching pattern at some point when they near the majors.  This may indeed lead to injuries, but it's not a Japanese thing, so Dice-K's experience is pretty irrelevant on this point.
    greenfrog - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 03:04 PM EST (#248878) #
    I have to say, I'm amazed in this age of information that wants to be free, twitter, leaks, etc. that we still don't know who won the bidding. I'm dying here!
    braden - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 03:07 PM EST (#248879) #
    The Cubs have apparently "stepped up" their pursuit of Fielder today. I wonder if that could signal they don't see themselves winning the bid.
    Ron - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 03:25 PM EST (#248881) #

    If Rogers is to become a charity and start putting hundreds of millions into the business of 'creating a lifetime of memories', regardless of the likelihood of a business return, then I can think of a lot a ways to donate $100 million better than 'creating memories' for online baseball fans. RIM, for example, is likely on the brink, and there are a lot of K-W jobs that could be saved in the short-term at least, with a $100 million charitable donation.

    Better still, World Vision offers the opportunity to sponsor children throughout the world and $100 million would go a long way. I'm sure posters here can nominate numerous pet charities for someone else to give their money to. 'Creating a lifetime of memories' seems like the advertisement of wedding photographers, or Mastercard, more than an investment strategy in a baseball team. You might as well begin with "Money's no object - actually
    your money's no object where my memories are concerned.

    I have no idea how this is even related to my post about Dice-K.
    Chuck - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 03:41 PM EST (#248882) #

    A championship creates a lifetime of memories that can never be taken away.

    Who would want to take them away?

    whiterasta80 - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 03:45 PM EST (#248883) #
    I'd love to take the Royals 1985 championship memories away, as well as the Athletics 1989 title.  Ditto the Red Sox 2 WS and every Yankees title that I've had to live through... but I guess I just hold grudges more than you do.
    ayjackson - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 03:45 PM EST (#248884) #
    Well I think the teams should know who was the successful bidder, so the rest of the offseason should start unfolding.
    greenfrog - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 04:02 PM EST (#248885) #
    @JonHeymanCBS
    signs strong jays & rangers did make serious bids for yu darvish. but could be a #mysteryteam. #yankees bid said modest.
    1 hour ago via web

    Must...stop...retweeting...
    85bluejay - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 04:17 PM EST (#248887) #
    Since the Jays don't comment on any rumours, it's easy for Agents/Media to link them to everyone - I don't believe any of it.
    Mike Green - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 04:18 PM EST (#248888) #
    This "#mysteryteam" business is a bit too groovy for me.  Mystery team is code for "I don't know what I am talking about". 
    melondough - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 04:44 PM EST (#248889) #

    If there is a tie then I would love to see MLB settle the bidding process with a riddle.  The first GM to get it right wins the rights to negotiate with Darvish.  Something like....

    "ok Anthopoulous and Ryan riddle me this...One night a King and a Queen go into a hotel room.  The next day three people come out.  How is this possible?"  I am guessing AA would put up his hand first.  

    Ok like Greenfrog I...must...stop..checking...tweets. I am going crazy!!!!

    Ryan Day - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 04:54 PM EST (#248890) #
    "I'm sure they make those decisions in a sensible business-like fashion, which may disappoint some of the fans, but that's why we're fans and they're guys running a successful business. "

    But MLB is full of teams owned by successful businesses (and businessmen). Arte Moreno isn't just some rube who stumbled on a chest of abandoned gold - he sold a company for billions of dollars, bought a baseball team, spent good money on it, and created a successful team. He recently signed a TV deal that could buy an entire lineup of Albert Pujols.

    Successful teams make money. They also cost money.
    melondough - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 04:56 PM EST (#248891) #

    I think Jeff Nelson has the IQ of a Nat!  Check out this video post just put up by MLB.com and his near insistence that the Jays will make the high bid purely with the intention to keep Yu away from NY.  More specifically low ball Darvish and thereby send him back to Japan. 

    How can he be so sure?  This frustrates me.  Was Nelson also a strong supporter of the claim the Jays were cheating this year?  At least Joe Sheehan acknowledges that the Jays are owned by the deep pocked Rogers Corp but he too idiotically implies the same thing.

    I would love to see the Jays successfully sign Darvish and see what Nelson says then.

    http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=20031293&c_id=mlb

     

    greenfrog - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 05:01 PM EST (#248892) #
    This is almost as bad as the Tyler Beede will-he-won't-he-sign drama...
    Mike Green - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 05:24 PM EST (#248893) #
    The IQ of a Nat?  Which one?

    My Grade 9 English teacher used to insult the class with "you have the intelligence of an amoeba in the infantile stage".  Gnats are, I guess, comparatively world-wise.

    melondough - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 05:29 PM EST (#248894) #
    Pat Gillick on the Fan590 right now talking about the bidding process and Darvish
    92-93 - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 05:34 PM EST (#248895) #
    One day that phrase might be: the IQ of a Newt.
    Thomas - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 05:43 PM EST (#248896) #
    This is almost as bad as the Tyler Beede will-he-won't-he-sign drama...

    I think it's worse than just Beede. Darvish is, by all reasonable accounts and projections, likely to be a #2 MLB starter. Tyler Beede was a very talented high school pitcher.

    Ron - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 06:01 PM EST (#248897) #
    The latest Goldstein podcast has an interview with Darvish's teammate, Bobby Keppel. He said Darvish has bulked up and is currently around 6'5 220 pounds. He said Darvish understands English better than he can speak it. Keppel said Darvish has 5 pitches and is probably a number 2 starter in MLB but could be better than that.
    katman - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 06:30 PM EST (#248899) #
    "One day that phrase might be: the IQ of a Newt."

    I'll take 140+, happily. Whatever you think of the man, his faults do not include a lack of raw intelligence.

    I find it incredibly tiresome when politizoids of either side start that nonsense. A person who differs from you politically can be quite smart, and mature people can acknowledge it without a problem.

    The application of this principle to sports commentary, where it is also valid and also missed too often, if left as an exercise for the reader.
    92-93 - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 06:43 PM EST (#248901) #
    Sheesh. You can't even make a pun about gnat and newts without someone misinterpreting something.

    It was a joke about the liberal media's tendencies to overrate the intelligence of Democratic presidents relative to their Republican counterparts, like the overwhelming assumption that Bush was a moron and Obama is a genius.

    From the TV debates one would assume Newt Gingrich is a rather astute fella.

    And now, back to your scheduled Yu Darvish fantasies.
    TamRa - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 06:44 PM EST (#248902) #
    " with the notable exception of their top draft pick last year. "

    Law has tweeted a few times that he'd learned the team and Beede had a disagreement over the health of his shoulder, it wasn't just money.

    "Come on...stop already with the second class runner up mentality of hoping that the Jays make ONLY prudent cost conscious transactions."

    I noticed that too. In one case, from the same poster who just spent most of a week decrying the lack of spending.
    greenfrog - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 07:01 PM EST (#248903) #
    I think someone on MLBTR posted that it took eight days for the winner of the Dice-K bid to be announced. So we might be in for a bit of a wait.
    TamRa - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 07:24 PM EST (#248904) #
    "2. Budgeting - A big chunk of the money is needed upfront. Because of contracts that were off the books last year, I wonder if there is a little more one-time money available. The Jays don't want to sign a contract like Vernon Wells again, because it might cost them when some of thier young players start asking for raises."
    ----------
    There's something that's not being said very much about this situation, and Dice-k:

    The posting fee is not accounted as salary. it's more akin to the signing bonus you pay to sign a draftee. While it's certainly possible to say a team can't afford, say, a $50 million layout for an investment, of whatever sort - it is nevertheless true that it is an investment, not payroll.

    And while that might seem an academic distinction to us, it matters to the team.

    In that regard, Dice-K has been a Red Sox player for 5 seasons. over the first 4, he averaged just over $7.8 mil per year and posted, collectively, a 4.18 ERA. For a handy comparison-

    *Mark Buehrle made $56 mil in all for the last 4 years for an ERA of 3.88, and was rewarded with another deal for almost as much.
    *Jake Westbrook made more than Matsuzaka for similar work
    *Ted Lily put up 4.52 over three season in Toronto and got a deal worth $40 mil and largely earned his keep in Chicago...

    Even if you factor in this year and divide by five the AAV for Dice-K only goes up to $8.33 mil

    In other words, dice K wasn't REALLY overpaid at all. Yes, he lost a season to injury - it happens. Jesse Listch and Sean Marcum lost a season to injury too, so what?



    Likewise, Darvish will probably get a contract not much more than Buehrle's on AAV, or Wilson's (which is said to be his goal. If one assumes and AAV of $15 mil then you have to ask yourself
    "Had i rather pay $13.5 mil a year to a 33 year old LH control artist (and Buehrle was widely advocated for here for a while) or $15 mil per for a 25 year old strikeout machine?

    That's an easy call to me.

    I'm sure that sounds like I'm just blowing off the posting fee - I'm not in the sense that I understand it's the cost of getting through the door that keeps a team like, say, San Diego from landing him - but if the teams do not consider it payroll I don't see why we should.
    TamRa - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 07:27 PM EST (#248905) #
    "I think someone on MLBTR posted that it took eight days for the winner of the Dice-K bid to be announced. So we might be in for a bit of a wait."


    Wilner was saying early on last night that Alex had said we were likely to find out Monday. ASlmost makes me wonder if he already knows and HE decided to tell the Fighters to hold their announcment until then for some reason (maybe because he has other moving parts going on he wants to line up before word gets out)

    Tinfoil hat territory probably but ...meh.
    Mylegacy - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 07:51 PM EST (#248908) #
    As I write this it is 4.44 PM PST here in Nanaimo and 9.44 AM in Japan.

    Hopefully they've had their eggs and tofu for breakfast and are now getting ready to make an announcement before they have sushi and tempura for lunch in a couple of hours.

    IF - we haven't heard by 6 PM their time (1 AM here in the Pacific Northwest) we'll have to wait until the window opens again in about 24 hours from now...Man this is KILLIN' me...

    Mylegacy - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 07:54 PM EST (#248909) #
    Just after writing the above...I go over to MLB Rumours and - they say the Ham Fighters are going to "accept" a bid just before the deadline on Tuesday.

    @##@$%%$#@*& and for good measure *&&^(*&%$$#$@@

    joeblow - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 07:57 PM EST (#248910) #
    Not going to "speculate based on buzz" because that's best left to professional reporters. Just have a couple probably non-original crumbs to add:

    - Adding Yu or another #2+ pitcher to the major league team may block some minor league pitchers but imho it significantly increases their value. There are a lot of them, they will get more seasoning and the ones the rise to the top will either move to the big leagues at the right time with reasonable expectations or have great value as trade chips.

    - John Farrell had a front row seat with Dice K and AA likes to gather information, so if there was anything to be learned from that signing, the Jays have probably learned it.

    - I know that Don Wakamatsu is American, but having a coach with Japanese ancestry might have some value in the Japanese market and in contract negotiations.

    melondough - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 08:07 PM EST (#248911) #

    Just after writing the above...I go over to MLB Rumours and - they say the Ham Fighters are going to "accept" a bid just before the deadline on Tuesday.

    My bet is that it will be leaked well before then

    melondough - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 08:24 PM EST (#248912) #

    "The growing consensus among officials with several major-league clubs is Toronto will surpass the Texas Rangers and win the negotiating rights to Japanese righthander Yu Darvish."

    http://rangersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2011/12/signs-point-toward-toronto-as.html

    To me this means zippo

    1990Jays - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 08:40 PM EST (#248913) #

    My bet is that it will be leaked well before then

    I'd take that bet, the identity of the team with the highest bid will not be leaked until the Fighters accept the bid. There are only a half a dozen people in the Commissioner's office privy to that information and those people are not gonna open their mouth and risk the ire of the Commissioner. There's a reason behind the secrecy anyways, Selig doesn't want the Fighters making their decision based on which team put in the highest bid, that's not how the posting system works


    1990Jays - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 08:42 PM EST (#248914) #
    sorry that should say probably about half a dozen people in the Commissioner's office
    Mylegacy - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 08:45 PM EST (#248915) #
    melondough says - in regards to the "Dallas News" story: "This means zippo to me."

    To me: Zippo mean lighters, lighters mean fire, and where they've fire there has to be something going on there!

    Eureka! The Jays have WON, The Jays have WON!!!

    I desperately need a wee dram - heck - I'll make it a double.

    Richard S.S. - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 08:45 PM EST (#248916) #

    Let's say Dec 25 would be on a Saturday (like last year), and Dec 26 would be on a Sunday (like last year).   Add two business day off to compensate for the Holidays.   Receiving the winning post after business hours on the Wednesday (before Christmas) means it's officially received Thursday.   Four business days could mean the opening of business on Friday (after Boxing Day) to complete the Official Four Business Days.

    If A.A. doesn't win the Darvish bid, he'll go right after the Starter he wants, because he knows the price (whether $$$ for a Free Agent or Prospect in a trade).   Whether he sign Fielder or Beltran might depend on the Pitcher.   If $$$, then he'll trade to fill any other pieces.   If prospects, then he'll spend $$$ to fill any holes.

    If he wins the Darvish bid, he'll sign him, the money will be there.   But any other holes will be filled by trading prospects.

    With Travis Snider, Eric Thames, Rajai Davis and Ben Francisco competing for two spots (LF and 4th OF), it makes Snider as best value to a trade.  With Anthony Gose and Moises (cannon for an arm) Sierra in AAA and Jake Marisnik, Marcus Knecht, Michael Crouse possibly in AA, it makes Snider expendable if needed.

    With Ricky Romero (Ace), New Acquisition, Brandon Morrow (break-out?), Henderson Alvarez (because he can), Dustin McGowan (until he can't) in the Rotation.   Jesse Litsch and Carlos Villanueva, in the Bullpen, are capable of starting if the need arises.   With Joel Carreno in AAA and Drew Hutchison, Deck McGuire, Chad Jenkins in AA, it makes Kyle Drabek and Brett Cecil expendable if needed.

    ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 08:56 PM EST (#248917) #
    Selig doesn't want the Fighters making their decision based on which team put in the highest bid, that's not how the posting system works

    Strong point. In addition, if the bid is going to be accepted, the Japan team is not going to do anything that sounds like 'Oh my God!! I can't believe we got this much money! We would have taken far less!", by accepting before the deadline. It's also why none of the MLB teams know - because if the news is leaked the Japanese team will know the name of the team.
    Richard S.S. - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 09:23 PM EST (#248918) #
    It is my understanding that the Highest Bid (and only the Higgest Bid) is presented to the Nippon Ham Fighters upon completion of the bidding process.   The Fighters get to decide whether or not they accept that bid as there are no other bids to compare it with.   Only MLB knows who made the bid (only 2 or 3 people) and they won't leak if they want to keep their job(s).   If anyone knows different, let me know.
    BlueJayWay - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 09:51 PM EST (#248919) #
    I'd take that bet, the identity of the team with the highest bid will not be leaked until the Fighters accept the bid. There are only a half a dozen people in the Commissioner's office privy to that information and those people are not gonna open their mouth and risk the ire of the Commissioner. There's a reason behind the secrecy anyways, Selig doesn't want the Fighters making their decision based on which team put in the highest bid, that's not how the posting system works

    That might be true, but the info to piece together who has the highest bid is privy to a lot more people than just a handful in the MLB office.  Each team knows what they bid, so if those numbers get leaked at the team level (at which probably many people know for each team) then the info could get out there.


    melondough - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 09:59 PM EST (#248921) #

    Only MLB knows who made the bid (only 2 or 3 people) and they won't leak if they want to keep their job(s). If anyone knows different, let me know.

    Well according to the New York Post the Blue Jays won the bid.  You may want to ask Mr. George A King that question.  http://www.twackle.com/sitebar?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nypost.com%2Fp%2Fsports%2Fyankees%2Fblue_jays_believed_to_outbid_yankees_2iwMCIwJ1gcFbjA9QYntaM%3FCMP%3DOTC-rss%26FEEDNAME%3D%26utm_source%3Dtwitterfeed%26utm_medium%3Dtwitter

    For the record I would bet that he does not know and in fact the article it titled "believed to outbid others".  And hence each site now puts there own spin on this article in order to (I have to assume) attract readers.  SI for instance points to this New York Post article as PROOF and titles their latest piece "Toronto Blue Jays High Bidder for Yu Darvish Negotiating Rights".  http://tracking.si.com/2011/12/16/report-toronto-blue-jays-high-bidder-for-yu-darvish-negotiating-rights/

    And now more and more publications declaring the Jays the clear cut winner (without any concrete proof): Baseball Time in Arlington just released their piece titled "The growing consensus is Toronto will win Darvish Rights".  http://www.bbtia.com/the-clubhouse/2011/12/15/the-growing-consensus-is-toronto-will-win-darvish-rights.html

    I agree with your comments 1990Jays.  It probably won't be leaked for the reasons you say and nobody really knows right now.  I actually thought about that too after I posted my last piece.  But I do have one question....why 1990?  Is this to prove you supported this team before they became WS champs?

    TJ Caino - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 10:09 PM EST (#248922) #
    So who currently knows the identity of the highest bidder? Only MLB? Or would they have notified the winning team by now?

    TJ Caino - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 10:13 PM EST (#248924) #
    Sorry: 3 - 6 people in the league office appears to be the going estimate.
    1990Jays - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 10:44 PM EST (#248925) #
    the exact number is irrelevant but only people in the Commissioner's office tasked with overseeing the bidding process know who the highest bidder is. I'm guessing Selig, a  senior executive (like a Kim Ng) that was put in charge of the process and a bunch of lawyers and support staff. Its extremely unlikely that someone among that group will leak anything to the media and risk losing their job.
    1990Jays - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 10:50 PM EST (#248926) #

    That might be true, but the info to piece together who has the highest bid is privy to a lot more people than just a handful in the MLB office.  Each team knows what they bid, so if those numbers get leaked at the team level (at which probably many people know for each team) then the info could get out there.

    Despite  the hundreds of rumors you'll see there's not a single pice of concrete information about a team's exact bid. Its not in their best interest  to reveal their bids and Selig probably told them to be quiet and let the process play out.
    uglyone - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 11:40 PM EST (#248930) #
    Welcome to the Great White North, Mistah Yu!!
    TamRa - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 12:14 AM EST (#248931) #
    "Strong point. In addition, if the bid is going to be accepted, the Japan team is **not going to do anything that sounds like 'Oh my God!! I can't believe we got this much money! We would have taken far less!", by accepting before the deadline.*** It's also why none of the MLB teams know - because if the news is leaked the Japanese team will know the name of the team."


    I don't see the value in that pretense. Everyone knows the Fighters are going to take whatever bid they get (unless it's insanely low and there's a high confidence it wasn't) and everyone knows the figure will come out after the winner is announced - what's to be gained by dancing for most of a week when there's nothing to be gained?

    We've been told that they only know one thing - the amount of the top bid - so there's no haggling over whether the player wants THAT team, there's no "do over" there's no picking the 2nd best offer instead (and no reason to)

    if they had wanted to forgo the money, he wouldn't have been posted - they WILL accept.

    So why the song and dance? Pocket your cash and move on people! the faster he signs, the faster the check clears.
    TamRa - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 12:19 AM EST (#248932) #
    From Richard's first link, you gotta love the quote which follows, whether you believe it or not:

    "According to several sources with knowledge of the situation, the Blue Jays made the monster bid on orders from owner Rogers Communications."



    uglyone - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 12:20 AM EST (#248933) #
    The people of Japan have a culture of honour and respect.

    Not of take the money and run.
    Ishai - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 12:35 AM EST (#248934) #
    If these rumours are true, I think this should work out very well economically for the Blue Jays. Yu should have a wide appeal in Toronto. Dude seems like he has an aura of something or other. I suppose Dice-K seemed that way until he came over and the myth of the gyroball disappeared to reveal a boring nibbler, but if Yu can pitch well enough (league average number 2), then the coolness of it all will help the Jays recoup their economic investment.

    If he is really good, then the move will generate faith and belief amongst a pretty cynical fanbase, and faith sells more tickets, ads, and merchandise than anything else. I think the Blue Jays really believe in the untapped potential of the Toronto/Canada(/Japan) marketplace and this move should stir that up a little bit.



    TamRa - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 01:21 AM EST (#248935) #
    listening to Blair's show today (on the site) and he said a LOT (persuasively, IMO) about the idea that the jays could easily re-coup their investment and more in marketing in Japan alone.

    If the winning bid is $54 mil that's 9 million a year. How hard can int be fore the Blue Jays to raise $9 mil per year among the Japanese if we sign Darvish? if not considerably more.
    92-93 - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 03:15 AM EST (#248936) #
    I know Blair & Wilner keep going on about how valuable Darvish is from a marketing perspective, but from what I can find on Dice-K I'm not buying it. It seems there's no added benefit via merchandise & TV rights, but that there may be opportunity in terms of specific sponsorship deals and in-stadium advertising.

    http://m.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/rob-bradford/2010/11/16/what-kind-bid-would-daisuke-matsuzaka-get-now

    http://www.portfolio.com/culture-lifestyle/culture-inc/sports/2007/09/17/Daisuke-Matsuzaka-analysis/
    Sano - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 04:29 AM EST (#248937) #
    Do you think this signing will rock the boat at all in the dressing room? Romero's certainly not making as much as Darvish will.
    R Billie - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 04:58 AM EST (#248938) #
    Darvish is a free agent (though one without a track record) so he's a special case. I don't think guys like Romero who signed secure deals well before free agency really would have an issue.

    It's an unusual situation but it's not like this is a guy fresh out of high school or college making that money.
    joeblow - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 08:38 AM EST (#248942) #
    If there's jealousy in the locker room, it wouldn't be the first time in baseball. They can get over that. I just hope Yu fits in with the guys and that the aura is not too Halladay-ish. It's hard to tell if he got special treatment in Japan (pitching on Sundays, etc), or if that was pretty standard.
    Forkball - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 08:56 AM EST (#248945) #
    I know Blair & Wilner keep going on about how valuable Darvish is from a marketing perspective, but from what I can find on Dice-K I'm not buying it. It seems there's no added benefit via merchandise & TV rights, but that there may be opportunity in terms of specific sponsorship deals and in-stadium advertising.

    Didn't the Jays have Japanese advertising on the fences when they played teams with Japanese players?  If that's the case there has to be some benefit to having that full time.
    melondough - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 09:05 AM EST (#248947) #

    If the Blue Jays don't win the bid there are going to be an awful lot of broken hearts here.  Again I have to point out that EVERY single tweet, and EVERY single article being written right now references one (that's 1) claim which was made by the New York Post. That in itself was not even a claim that the Jays won because they use words like "possibly" and "expected". 

    As much as I would be over the moon if they did win and sign Darvish, for me the Cubs are way too quiet.  Also I never trust what the Yankees say.  Someone claims they said they made a "modest bid".  What exactly does modest translate into in Yankee World?  If for nothing else then to save what sanity I have left, I refuse to get get caught up in all of this nonsense because it is still a bunch of writers with "sources" that are guessing.  I would strongly suggest you do the same until something more concrete comes out.

    I just noticed a new Darvish thread so sorry about posting this twice.

    R Billie - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 09:07 AM EST (#248949) #
    I think there's a difference in marketability between Daisake and Yu. The latter is younger and pretty much a celebrity/rockstar in Japan.
    uglyone - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 12:05 PM EST (#248974) #
    If the Blue Jays don't win the bid there are going to be an awful lot of broken hearts here.

    and so........what?
    ayjackson - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 12:07 PM EST (#248975) #

    so nothing?

    It just seems like an observation that these tweets can't help but get people's hopes up.

    uglyone - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 12:16 PM EST (#248979) #
    and what's bad about getting our hopes up?
    zeppelinkm - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 12:33 PM EST (#248980) #

    It's demoralizing?

    What response are you looking for uglyone?

    I would much prefer if these tweets weren't happening, if the Jays weren't the actual supposed front runners. I'd rather not have the false hope and be thrilled/surprised/happy if the announcement was made then have a week go by thinking "maybe, just maybe" only to realize it was all just speculation and conjecture.

    uglyone - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 12:38 PM EST (#248981) #
    Hmm. different strokes I guess.

    I am enjoying the idea that we are winning the Darvish sweepstakes. I am enjoying the speculation, the angst, the dissecting of what this may mean to our team's direction and possible other moves.

    and I doubt I will be on suicide watch if the rumours end up being untrue, so I'm not so worried about this apparent downside.

    zeppelinkm - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 01:01 PM EST (#248983) #
    What's the point in challenging a statement that simply says there will be a lot of broken hearts if we don't win. It's entirely true. It's just a statement. And yes, obviously different strokes for different folks.
    uglyone - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 01:12 PM EST (#248984) #
    I challenge it because I disagree with the sentiment of people trying to warn us against getting our hopes up.

    Screw that. My hopes are up, and I'm enjoying it.

    Why wouldn't I? the worst that can happen is that Yu remains a non-blue jay. big whup.

    Enjoy the ride. This is sports.
    electric carrot - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 01:15 PM EST (#248985) #
    if we don't get Darvish I'm going to get depressed.
    Flex - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 01:28 PM EST (#248986) #
    I have one hand on my computer mouse and the other on a razor blade. I'm good either way.
    markham_jay - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 06:55 PM EST (#249015) #
    It seems there's no added benefit via merchandise & TV rights (to sign Darvish), but that there may be opportunity in terms of specific sponsorship deals and in-stadium advertising.

    Yeah, I think all these perceived economic benefits are overly optimistic.  It's certainly no justification to overpay a player and expect that revenue to return to the team by some other means.  I too tried to find some data from the Ichiro and Dice-K deals to support this but all I could find was that the Red Sox couldn't even take advantage of the increased demand for ballpark advertising because all the signs for the upcoming season had been leased out prior to his signing.

    Anyways I'm enjoying all this Darvish speculation.  And if the solace of Darvish becoming a Blue Jay doesn't come maybe we can all find it in the wise words of Monty Python: "What do you got to lose? You know, you come from nothing, you're going back to nothing. What have you lost? Nothinnng!
    sam - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 07:33 PM EST (#249020) #
    If the most recent rumours are true, and the Jays did submit the winning bid of $48 million, then I'm going to believe everything hypobole has to say Jays-related in the future.
    bpoz - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 08:22 PM EST (#249028) #
    Its like waiting for a late delivery. THE PREGNANT PAUSE!!
    Richard S.S. - Saturday, December 17 2011 @ 02:24 AM EST (#249042) #
    Let's talk $$$$$.   Should Darvish become a Blue Jay, will the Team earn back the Posting Fee?   Those panels around the playing field that show advertising have been known to go for up to $300 K, or more, per 1/2 inning.   Now imagine a fee of $50 K to $300 K per the half-inning Darvish pitches - not being greedy, we'll assume Darvish pitches 6 innings (not the more likely 7+) - multiply that over 15 - 17 home starts (+/- 2 starts) - multiplied by 6 year contract.   Now tell me the Posting Fee is a waste of money ($27.0 MM - $162.0 MM) .   It's just $$$$$.
    TamRa - Saturday, December 17 2011 @ 04:21 AM EST (#249043) #
    I have no idea if the discussed price per panel is correct or not - but if you had the two panels behind home plate, at 50k per half inning (for a total of 100k)

    for 15 starts at 6 innings per start (a very reasonable expectation as that wouldn't even pro-rate to 20 IP over the season) then that works out to $9 mil per season, x 6 years of control totals $54 million in all.

    All other potential revenue streams aside.

    BUT

    In fairness, those panels will be sold anyway, so in order to make that EXTRA money you have to be able to sell them at $50k MORE than you could have otherwise sold them - i have not remotely enough business sense to know how possible that is.
    markham_jay - Saturday, December 17 2011 @ 01:11 PM EST (#249053) #
    Sox have Dice-K, but rivals reaping ad dollars 

    If advertisers bought the signs before the season started and even if they could pick the specific innings in which the ad would be displayed it'd still be a crapshoot projecting the starter over the course of 162 games with injuries and off days. 

    But on a brighter note, the Jays recuperated all of Jo-Jo Reyes salary in just his first start when he persevered through 3.1 innings.   Now that's a bargain.
    Richard S.S. - Saturday, December 17 2011 @ 02:55 PM EST (#249064) #

    Paul Beeston, as President, is responsible for the SkyDome/Rogers Center operations.   He has a good idea of what the Market will stand in advertising costs.   There can be 4-6 panels, behind Home Plate that could generate max $$$$$.   At the time Dice-K was pitching, I think $300 K, per panel, per 1/2 inning, was the going rate and any place he pitched got requests to advertise.  

    Assume increases of $50 K, or $100 K, or $150 K over the going rate would be possible.   At a minimum increase of $50 K per panel, but just one panel, times 6 innings (possibly 7+) per start, times approximately 15 Home starts (15-17+/-2), times assumed 6 year contract.    This gives you $27.0 MM (per $50 K, per one panel) over the course of the contract.   

    With 6 panels involved however, you'd earn: $162.0 MM over the life of the contract.    The posting fee ($50.0 MM - $75.0 MM) is recouped.   The Salary paid ($50.0 MM - $75.0 MM) is recouped.   And a minimum of $12.0 MM - $62.0 MM is added to Payroll ($2.0 MM - $10.3 MM per year) over the course of the contract. 

    At a larger increase of $100 K per panel over 6 panels, you'd earn: $324.0 MM over the life of the contract.   The posting fee ($50.0 MM - $75.0 MM) is recouped.   The Salary paid ($50.0 MM - $75.0 MM) is recouped.   And a minimum of $174.0 MM - $224.0 MM is added to Payroll ($29.0 MM - $37.3 MM per year) over the course of the contract.

    At a much larger increase of $150 K over each of 6 panels you'd earn: $486.0 MM over the life of the contract.   The posting fee ($50.0 MM - $75.0 MM) is recouped.   The Salary paid ($50.0 MM - $75.0 MM) is recouped.   And a minimum of $336.0 MM - $386.0 MM is added to Payroll ($56.0 MM - $64.3 MM per year) over the course of the contract.

    Now these numbers are assumptions of possibilities, which could put us in the NY Yankees territory for Payroll.    Attendance is the KEY.   1.6 million fans lets A.A. operate in the $70.0 MM payroll range, so 3.2 fans should let him operate in the $140.0 MM payroll range.   Adding in increased Darvish revenue as shown above...the future is bright.

    TamRa - Saturday, December 17 2011 @ 03:05 PM EST (#249065) #
    I'm not getting starry eyed - I'm just looking for a plausible explanation of a revenue stream that justifies the payout on the posting fee, not even the salary.

    I think that can be argued successfully.
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