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Yesterday we looked at the placement of minor league catchers for 2012 and it was relatively straightforward.  Today we look at first basemen and the picture is much more muddled.

 



Las Vegas

Vegas is the first team with a logjam at first base.  There is no spot for David Cooper in Toronto and so he is ticketed to return to AAA.  Mike McDade played well in AA last season, very well before he hurt his knee, and he is due for a call-up to AAA.  So what do the Jays do?  They have three options:

1. Keep both players in AAA and have them alternate between 1B and DH

2. Keep Mike McDade in AA

3. Release and/or trade one of them

These decisions are not made in a vacuum, are there other DH candidates on the AAA roster?  Are there other first basemen ticketed for AA?  Is there an active trade market for Cooper or McDade and would the Jays be willing to trade them?

To partially answer those questions, there are no priority DH candidates in Las Vegas; there are a couple of players who could play first base in AA but again, not on a priority basis; there is no real trade market for David Cooper unless the Jays wanted to dump him, the trade market for McDade could be stronger than for Cooper.

Cooper is two years older than McDade, Cooper will turn 25 next month while McDade will turn 23 in May. 

Does McDade deserve to play in AAA?  I think he does.  Your opinion on this issue might come down to how you interpret McDade's 2011 season.  McDade hurt his knee mid-year and needed surgery after the season to repair it.  His stats appear to confirm that with an 880 OPS before the all-star break and an OPS of 561 after.  David Cooper, in his second season in AA had an OPS of 769, McDade's full season OPS was 785.  The pre and post all-star numbers really show up in the power department.  McDade's isolated power was 525 before the all-star break and 294 after.  You could claim that the league caught up to McDade, or that he got into some bad habits, but my money is on the knee injury sapping his power.  Because of that I believe both Cooper and McDade will be in Las Vegas in 2012.


New Hampshire

So who plays first base in AA?  Dunedin in 2011 had Jon Talley as the regular first baseman.  Talley only hit .241 but did walk and hit 20 home runs.  Sean Ochinko, who we mentioned yesterday, in the catcher discussion also played some first base in Dunedin and he had the same OPS as Talley, with a higher batting average and less power.  In this case there is some pressure from behind as KC Hobson is headed for Dunedin putting pressure on Talley and/or Ochinko to move up. 

I think Ochinko and Talley will both move up.


Dunedin

KC Hobson didn't stand out in Lansing last season but he is 21 now and it's time to keep pushing him to see how he reacts to the promotion.  Hobson was a sixth round draft choice, the same as Mike McDade. First base is a power position and Hobson hasn't shown big power, but he is still young.  Mike McDade has his breakout season at age 20.  Can KC Hobson have his at age 21?


Lansing

First base will be an interesting choice by the Jays. Balbino Fuenmayor could be back, or Art Charles, Eric Arce or Kevin Patterson could get the promotion. Patterson played in Vancouver in 2011, a level that is close to that of the Midwest League.  Charles and Arce played in Bluefield and the GCL.  For those reasons either Balbino or Patterson look like the favourites to me.   Arce has possibly the most potential and if the Jays agree he could get the job but given that he just tunred 20, he might have to wait a while.

Tomorrow is middle infield day.

2012 Minor League Players - First Base | 16 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
TamRa - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 05:08 AM EST (#251018) #
I don't think I'd push up Hobson yet until he showed me something. Keeping either Ochinko or (more likely) Talley there for part of the season until Hobson (or someone) proved they deserved the job.

On the other hand, Dunedin being notoriously pitcher friendly, it would be interesting to see what both guys would do in AA.

There was a minor league free agent named Gabriel Jacobo who's 24 and has no place in AAA who could take up some slack in NH.

Kevin Nolan spent some time at 1B I believe and could spot in some place. Likely at Dunedin.

One option if you don't want to push Hobson is to skip Kevin Patterson who's actually not only older than Hobson but older than Talley over Lansing to Dunedin. His .859 OPS was the highest on the Vancouver squad among those who'd played at least 10 games.


I think if it was me I'd go:

LV - McDade / Cooper (1b/DH rotation)
NH - Ochinko (age considerations) and Jacobo with an eye towards promoting Tally if he starts off well for the first couple of months. another consideration here is Yan Gomes who will probably need to play 1B some.
D - Tally / Nolan - with an Eye towards promoting Hobson if he figures it out or Patterson of Hobson continues to progress slowly when Tally moves up.
L - Hobson / Patterson
V - Art Charles
Lugnut Fan - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 08:28 AM EST (#251020) #
I agree with TamRa in that I believe Hobson is probably going to start the season in Lansing, with expectations that he would be moved at some point during the season.  He was extremely inconsistent and his patience at the plate was poor at times.  I think Fuenmayor's time may be up with the organization as well.  If he starts in Lansing, it would be the fourth straight season that he would break camp as a Lugnut.
fozzy - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 09:17 AM EST (#251022) #
Not to beat it to death and into the ground again, but it's tough to look at this list and make an argument against bringing Prince Fielder here, long term be damned.

Is there anything besides money (or lack thereof) in play here?

Matthew E - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 09:53 AM EST (#251026) #
Not to beat it to death and into the ground again, but it's tough to look at this list and make an argument against bringing Prince Fielder here, long term be damned.

Is there anything besides money (or lack thereof) in play here?


Sure there is. Doubt about whether Fielder's body type is going to allow him to continue to perform at a high level over the course of his contract. Granted, that's only something to worry about in combination with the money, but that doesn't make it not a real concern.
wacker - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 09:55 AM EST (#251028) #
I'm curious to see what talley can do going into what is his second full year being strictly a first base man. He's a big man with good height and big power. Some of those 20 homers were tape measure shots.
fozzy - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 12:02 PM EST (#251040) #
Sure there is. Doubt about whether Fielder's body type is going to allow him to continue to perform at a high level over the course of his contract. Granted, that's only something to worry about in combination with the money, but that doesn't make it not a real concern.

Just taking a cursory glance around FA contracts signed the last couple of years, are there many players who seem like a good bet to sustain levels throughout their 5+ year contracts?

Even going young now requires a lot of talent to go the other way. At some point, if what we have isn't enough (and I personally don't think it is at 1B, now or down the road 3-5 years) it's gonna take a lot of $ or a lot of prospects, like Rizzo or Alonso. I think the days of Wallace for Gose are fewer and farther in between as the value of prospects increase.

I'd rather lose the money, and have a potential player to step up and take the reigns that have that younger player crap out and force a lesser player take the full load. But then again, it's not my money...
jgadfly - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 04:49 PM EST (#251091) #

Is it a bird?...  Is it a plane?...  Is it a barrel? ...  No it's SleeperMan ...

Flying under the radar ... hard not to miss at 6'1" & 240ish lbs ... Michael McDade !!!

Caution ! ...   Cheery Picking Alert !

Which switch hitting Jay prospect, who is also known for his outstanding defense,

                                                       and who in the last two seasons, has more hits, doubles, HR's, & RBI than number one prospect Travis d'Arnaud,

                                                       and who this past season reduced his strikeouts by almost a third in the same number of at bats from the previous year,

                                                      and who is also two months younger than the previously mentioned d'Arnaud,

                                                      and who also led the 2010 Arizona Fall League in doubles, was second in hits and finished third with a .375 batting average,

                                                     and who also led the Florida State League in HR's in 2010,

                                                     and who resmbles Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard and Rodney Dangerfield

                                                     and who still can't crack anybody's Top 20 Jays prospect list ?

 

 

 A  comparison ...

                                                      AVG    G    AB     R      H    2B   HR   RBI   BB   SO  OBP  SLG  OPS

d'Arnaud ... Pre All-Star            .315   69   248    48    78    23    12    37    24   55   .388   .552   .941

McDade .... Pre All-Star            .310   88   339    58  105    31    14    62    21   77   .355   .525   .880

d'Arnaud ... Post All-Star          .307   45   176    24     54    10      9    41      9   45    .346   .528   .874

McDade .... Post All-Star          .214    37  145    13      31      6      2    12     7    27    .265   .297   .561

d'Arnaud ...2011 NH EAS         .311  114  424   72   132     33    21   78    33  100   .371   .542   .914

McDade ....2011 NH EAS          .281  125 484   71   136     37    16   74     28 104   .328   .457    .785

d'Arnaud... 2010 DUN FSL       . 259   71  263    36     68      20     6    38    20   63   .315    .411   .726

McDade ... 2010 DUN FSL       . 267 128 480     60   128     22   21    64    27 141    .315   .448    .763

 

and here is a comp with David Cooper at New Hampshire ,,, 

                                                                                   AVG     G      AB    R       H     2B   HR    RBI    BB  SO       OBP      SLG    OPS

Cooper    age 22     2009 NH EAS                       .258  128   473    62  122     32     10    66    59   92       .340      .389    .729

Cooper    age 23     2010 NH EAS                       .257  132   498    59  128     30     20    78    52   74        .327      .442    .769

McDade   age 22        Pre All-Star                        .310   88    339    58   105     31     14    62    21   77         .355      .525    .880

McDade  age22      2011 NH EAS                        .281  125   484   71   136     37      16   74     28  104       .328     .457    .785

 

If McDade can put up  comparable numbers to Cooper in his hometown of Las Vegas, he will be getting a whole lot more respect from the prognosticators .

85bluejay - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 05:02 PM EST (#251095) #
There's a decent chance that 1B is Jose Bautista's home within the next 2 years.
wacker - Tuesday, January 24 2012 @ 05:39 PM EST (#251102) #
240ish? Is that wishful thinking or has he been on a very strict diet?
gabrielthursday - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 02:28 AM EST (#251139) #
I don't think there's anything wrong with letting McDade begin the season back at NH for the first month or so.  It would give both Cooper and McDade a little more playing time early in the season.  K.C. Hobson had excellent plate control, and I don't have any difficulty moving him up to Dunedin.  I'd like to see (after the first month or so):

Vegas: Cooper/McDade
New Hampshire: Ochinko/Talley/Gomes
Dunedin: Hobson/Jacobo
Lansing: Patterson/McQuail
Vancouver: Charles
Bluefield: Arce

Most of these guys are non-prospects right now, so if someone breaks out, there's really nothing standing in the way of moving up and getting playing time until you hit Vegas.



vonwafer234 - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 01:52 PM EST (#251163) #

I don't think you can demote Gabe Jacobo lower then Triple A where he finished off his season last year as a result of us taking him in the Triple A portion of the Rule 5 Draft am I right or wrong?

spud77 - Monday, January 30 2012 @ 01:50 PM EST (#251343) #
Where does Roan Salas fit in the 1B picture? Back in Vancouver or up to Lansing?
Gerry - Monday, January 30 2012 @ 02:33 PM EST (#251350) #
Salas didn't distinguish himself in 2011 so I see him back in extended and battling for a short-season job.
wacker - Monday, February 20 2012 @ 07:00 PM EST (#252061) #
http://s1149.photobucket.com/albums/o592/bafakak/Mobile%20Uploads/?action=view&current=IMG_0201.jpg

Who is this blue jay minor leaguer?
Gerry - Monday, February 20 2012 @ 07:38 PM EST (#252064) #
Jon Talley
wacker - Wednesday, February 22 2012 @ 10:58 PM EST (#252157) #
Large
2012 Minor League Players - First Base | 16 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.