*Agree re Rangers over Yanks

*I don't think the Tigers are better than the Rays or the Red Sox and might not be better than the Jays. Two amazing hitters and one amazing starter es, but I don't think many of the rest are above average.

*I don't think the Red Sox are as good as most do and i think Bobby V will only make things worse.

*I think the bottom 8 teams are seriously bad, and there's a bit of separation between the top 3 and the rest of the good teams.


I'd have it something more like this

1. Rangers
2. Yankees
3. Angels
4. Rays
5. D'Backs
6. Phillies
7. Red Sox
8. Blue Jays
9. Tigers
10. Reds
11. Giants
12. Marlins
13. Brewers
14. Cardinals
15. Nationals
16. Braves
17. Indians
18. Royals
19. Dodgers
20. Rockies
21. Padres
22. Pirates
23. White Sox
24. A's
25. Cubs
26. Twins
27. Mariners
28. Mets
29. Orioles
30. Astros

Thanks Mick. But I do not understand how this works.

1)Seems weird to me that the top NL team is #7 ranked. 5 teams from each league make the playoffs. But if the top 6 AL teams win 95+ games but the top team in the NL only wins 94 games then fine.
2) The #12 Blue Jays are the 7th best AL team. The NYY have to be very much better than Texas, LAA & Detroit to be ranked #1 when the scheduling is considered.

The Braves are ranked way too low and the Tigers are too high. 

It's really, really nice to finally see the Jays ranked ahead of Milwaukee. The last couple of years they have been constantly right behind them.

Cincinnati is probably ranked too low. The talent distribution in the NL has definitely leveled off. I think every division in the NL is wide open. 

So confusing. Zaun on PTS today saying he had the jays at "anywhere from 85 to 95 wins" and of the starters (presumably excluding Cecil) that if McGowan stayed healthy "this is a special group"

What happened to the notorious negativism?

The Braves are ranked way too low and the Tigers are too high.

No kidding. You'd do better just flipping them. I don't really think the Braves are the 4th best team in the majors, but I do think Detroit would have their hands full just to finish 3rd in the NL East.

The part I find hard to fathom in all the various rankings is how high people are putting the Rays.  Yes, I know the starting rotation is outstanding, although I do think that if any of their starters regress (which we keep forecasting for mere mortals on other teams), there is only great defense to back them up.  Their hitting will not be much stronger than last year, if at all, and their bullpen could be significantly weaker than last year.

How far back of them the Jays end up will depend heavily on our rotation back end - we will greatly outhit them and our bullpen will greatly out-pitch them.  And given the way that Romero, Morrow and Alvarez are pitching to start the season, I think we will go head to head with them in the top of the rotation.

Finally, I think last year, Farrell was too green as a manager, and so the Rays had a big advantage in the dugout.  I see Farrell coming on strong now, and that gap is closing.

We will see.

I really don't think the Rays are much better than, say, the Tigers. In my opinion there's less difference between 4 ad 12 than there is between 4 and 2

but you have to put then in SOME order.

Interesting that after Cecil got pounded yesterday Farrell mentioned Carreno and Jenkins as the two guys who might be in line for the 5th starting spot. Hutchison and McGuire were specifically mentioned as going to AA unless something crazy happens.

Shi Davidi points out that Hutchison still has some things to work on:

Pitching prospect Drew Hutchison will open the season with double-A New Hampshire and though he impressed in camp, manager John Farrell says he was sent down with some specific things to work on.

"What we saw down in (Fort Myers against) Boston, there were times when he got behind in the count that his delivery became a little bit more deliberate," said Farrell. "It was a little exposed after getting two quick outs, he ended up walking (Darnell) McDonald on a 3-2 pitch, fell behind the next hitter, and he went from a 1.2 delivery time to a 1.5, 1.6 and it was quickly a stolen base.

"So it's the nuances of the game, and that's part of normal maturation and a young pitcher whose got 15 innings in double-A. We want him to season a bit more."

Okay, we were right: Cecil has been demoted to AA.

Carreno has been promoted to replace him. Laffey sent to Vegas.

I suppose Carreno got the edge over Hutchison/Jenkins/McGuire because he has more AA experience and a bit of MLB experience. But to throw him into the number 3 slot in the rotation (as the Jays are apparently planning to do), with Drabek in the number 5 slot, has to be a risky proposition. Drabek can be eased in, because the Jays only need a number 5 starter once until late April, but Carreno has never started in the majors before -- and he'll need to make at least two or three starts until McGowan is ready.

I'd assume that Villanueva and Perez were also considered for Cecil's spot in the rotation, but neither is stretched out. They'll be more valuable in long relief if Carreno can only go for 4 or 5 innings in his starts.

I'm glad Cecil was sent down. That was just a train wreck waiting to happen, and it's good we caught it early. Let him work out his kinks, or try at least, in the minors.

If they do not skip starts at all, the "#3" starter faces Cleveland and Baltimore, while the "#5" starter faces Boston and Tampa Bay. I don't know if Drabek is the best choice to face Boston and Tampa Bay, but I think he's a better option than Carreno.

Well, they do have the flexibility to mix up Drabek & Carreno to some degree. As the #5 starter, Drabek would start on the 10th, then not again until the 21st; Carreno would go on the 8th, 14th, and 19th. If Carreno gets blown out in his 1st two starts, you could start Drabek on the 19th, then call up someone else to be the fifth starter on the 21st.

But because of off-days, the Jays won't need the 5th starter until April 21 (after the Boston game on April 10). So it seems to me that Carreno will get two starts and Drabek will get only one start in that period.

(I was responding to James, not Ryan, in that last post.)

But because of off-days, the Jays won't need the 5th starter until April 21 (after the Boston game on April 10). So it seems to me that Carreno will get two starts and Drabek will get only one start in that period.

As I understand it they haven't determined who they are skipping in the rotation yet (though presumably it's between Drabek and Carreno.)

As I mentioned in the other thread, the Jays need someone to pitch on April 14 against Baltimore, and it can't be Drabek because he pitches on the 10th against Boston. So it has to be Carreno again. He gets two starts, Drabek gets one start, and then the Jays can flip them around on April 21 if they want.

That's if I'm reading the schedule correctly. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

I'm encouraged that the team is considering skipping a starter with the off-days on the 12th and 16th. It wasn't a move I thought they would do.

I like the move in the sense of not wasting more major league time on Cecil. I just don't like the "last-minute-ness" of it. It smacks of desperation and a lack of foresight. If Carreno was always part of the plan, I would have liked to see him pitching to major league hitters in ST. This seems like a move that has a high-probability of backfiring and making the Jays look like fools.

"As I mentioned in the other thread, the Jays need someone to pitch on April 14 against Baltimore, and it can't be Drabek because he pitches on the 10th against Boston. So it has to be Carreno again. He gets two starts, Drabek gets one start, and then the Jays can flip them around on April 21 if they want.

That's if I'm reading the schedule correctly. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong."

You're wrong.

5 - Romero
6 - off
7 - Morrow
8 - Carreno
9 - Alvarez
10 - Drabek
11 - Romero
12 - off
13 - Morrow
14 - Alvarez (4 days rest)
15 - Drabek (4 days rest)
16 - off
17 - Romero
18 - Morrow
19 - Alvarez
20 - Drabek
21 - ???

That's probably a week, maybe two, too early for mcGowan so I expect Carreno might get 2-3 more starts, which is not enough time for the league to catch up with him to any great extent (assuming the possibility that they would at some point)

Yeah, I had corrected myself in the other thread, hours ago.

Also, I don't think you can assume that Drabek will definitely get the start on April 15. It depends on their performance in their first starts. If Drabek gets shelled in his first start, and if Carreno does well in his start, it's not inconceivable that Carreno, rather than Drabek, will get the start on the 15th. I agree that Drabek is the favorite at this point, but assumptions about the Jays rotation have a way of crumbling fast.

Thanks TamRa for the SP schedule. I have always liked Alvarez ever since that great year in Lansing. So now I know his days to pitch & who the opponent is. I like to be fair to all Jays prospects & players but somehow I end up with favorites. I suppose I should hope that all 3 of Drabek, Alvarez & Carreno become aces but asking for even one is probably asking for a lot. Still at the moment I have expectations for Alvarez.

But you never know ... I seriously misjudged Kelvim Escobar & Woody Williams. I would not be too shocked if Williams had comparable results as our 2nd best SP last year. Of course it would be his 2nd full year to be fair.