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Sam and Kelekin did a great job yesterday with their draft board.  They didn't get everyone they wanted but getting two of their "wants" in a competitive draft is pretty good.   They are back with their day 2 wish list.  Drafting for day 2 starts at noon today.  Sam and Kelekin will add capsules of some of the drafted players in the comments section as the day progresses.

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Rounds two to fifteen of the 2012 MLB Draft will take place on June 5, 2012.  After what was a solid first day of drafting the Jays will look to day two of the draft to continue to add high upside talent.  In past drafts, teams drafting early on day two would have likely contacted prospects to re-evaluate bonus demands, and in most cases there would have been an early rush on those prospects that had fallen due to signability.  Some teams seem to have set themselves up to perhaps take a run at some of the prospects with bonus demands, but it appears as though most have  blown their bonus allotments on their first pick(s).  I don’t know if I have a great handle on where the Jays sit at the moment.  I think all their picks so far are signable, yet I don’t know if there are any major bargains of the lot.  Davis might get done below slot and maybe Stroman, but Smoral will want some money and both Nay and Gonzales will want to be paid to forgo college commitments to Arizona State and Texas respectively.  In sum, I don’t think you’ll see the Jays going after any of the guys that are considered tough signs. 

 

 



Area scouts in the new CBA world will have a lot more to do here with the overall success of drafts.  Getting a handle on whether kids want to play pro ball and the relationships cultivated between the families and the organization will be much more important with the new rules.  In the coming rounds you’ll really see the area scouts earn their money. 

 

Kelekin and I have listed some names here that might be of some interest to the Jays.  The names we feel are the combination of signability, projectability, and high-end tool prospects.

 

Some links:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/?srch=byNatRank&top=500&submit=Search#

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/5/25/3042924/2012-mlb-draft-players-with-signability-questions

 

http://mlb.mlb.com//news/article.jsp?ymd=20120605&content_id=32777766&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

 

Jake Barrett RHP Arizona State

 

Many in these parts will remember this name.  Barrett was drafted by the Jays back in 2009 in the third round and was one of a number of high draft picks not signed by the Jays that year.  Barrett re-enters the draft this year with many of the same questions that plagued him coming out of high school, namely will he be able to start long-term.  When I checked in on Barrett last year he was starting and struggling with his command.  Kelekin informs me he has since switched back to relieving and has since found his control and dominated.  The velocity from high school is still reported to be there with a fastball that sits mid-90s with some good sink and he has developed a nice looking slider to put together a pretty darn good junior season at Arizona State as the teams closer.  The delivery needs some real work but he’s got some good stuff and may be another “Blue Jays special.”  For those wondering, that’s what Tony LaCava is calling relievers being drafted by the Jays and converted to starters.  My understanding is that Barrett would have to have signed a form allowing the Jays to re-draft him.  I presume this is merely a formality, but who knows. 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sx9nVpbItdQ

 

http://www.twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1012-Profiles-of-the-Top-22-Pitchers-for-the-2012-MLB-Draft-Jake-Barrett

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/#list=draft

 

 

Chris Beck RHP Georgia Southern

 

Beck’s name was in discussion for the first round early on in the draft cycle.  He had a big Cape season, but has since faltered this spring possessing perhaps the most “lead” of all draft prospects this year.  Beck has a solid pitchers frame, a solid repertoire and delivery yet has been extremely hittable this draft season.  There’s still some projection there and a lot to like.  Pro instruction may do him well.  Pitchers that can hit 95mph consistently on the radar gun will dry up fast in this year’s draft so do expect Beck to go soon on day two. 

 

http://baseballprospectnation.com/2012/04/04/scouting-report-chris-beck-rhp/

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJV6uOyIJ10

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/#list=draft

 

 

Carson Kelly 3B/RHP HS Oregon

 

A good looking 3B prospect and pitching prospect.  Wonder if the Jays go after him considering the selection of Nay.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/#list=draft

 

 

Hunter Virant LHP HS California

 

 

Adam Brett Walker 1B/OF Jacksonville

 

 

Duane Underwood RHP HS Georgia

 

 

Chase DeJong RHP HS California

 

 

Tom Murphy C Buffalo

 

 

Kyle Twomey LHP HS California

 

 

Skye Bolt OF HS Georgia

 

 

Preston Tucker 1B/OF Florida

 

 

Onelkis Garcia LHP Cuba

 

 

Cody Poteet RHP HS California

 

 

Ryan Kellogg LHP HS Ontario

 

 

We will have some more names and some write ups on these guys in the early afternoon for everyone. 

 

 

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Once again thanks to sam and Kelekin for some outstanding work on the draft.

2012 Draft Batter’s Box Day 2 Player Board | 221 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Beyonder - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#257805) #
Thanks to you all for your hard work. In anyone's travels, have they come across a copy of the MLB draft rules? Keith Law just posted something about pre-arranged draft deals resulting in a forfeiting of the pick, and I wanted to see the reference. He says it is rule three, but all I can find online are summaries of the Rules.

While I was looking, I did find a copy of the new Basic agreement. Previously we only had access to the summary document. Here's the link:

http://mlb.mlb.com/pa/pdf/cba_english.pdf
Gerry - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#257806) #

Before the draft report cards come out, I would like to go on the record and say that I think they are a waste of time and ink.  I have several reasons for thinking this:

1. Prospect evaluation is very unpredictable and the further you are from the major leagues the more uncertain it is.  We know most of these picks will never have a long major league career but the evaluators write as if they are guaranteed performers.

2. Most draft report cards give high grades to teams with high picks or lots of picks.  Well duh! 

3. If it is not for the reasons in #2 then a team will get a high draft mark for picking a player lower than how the writer ranked them.  Let's say BA ranked Joe Smith as the tenth best player, but Smith didn't get picked until pick number 28.  BA will say "team 28 got great value in that pick, getting tenth talent with the 28th pick."   I would put it this way "I guess 17 teams had a different opinion on the value of Joe Smith so BA I think you messed up that evaluation".  Remember how we like our experts... as a society we like experts with strong opinions so we will get definite opinions.  It doesn't mean they are right.

4. And finally on my little rant, there is very little difference between the 12th and 13th pick in a draft so getting excited over one rather than another is silly.

 

There are a few situations where a team can be criticsed for a pick as the Cubs were for picking Hayden Simpson a few years ago.  But those situations are rare.  We should welcome the new picks into the system and hope they develop into productive major leaguers.

ayjackson - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#257807) #
B+, Gerry.
CeeBee - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#257809) #
Well put Gerry. I think it's human nature to have to rate everything as well as predict the future.. Then we can go back when we get lucky and say "I told you so and so would be a star". Nobody brags about their failures and mistakes though.... go figure.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#257812) #
I think Jays fans have been spoiled a bit by the extra picks in recent drafts. The extra picks make following the draft pretty fun, as they open up different ways to go about getting the players the team wants. Barring a qualifying offer to EE or KJ (or perhaps a compensation pick for failing to sign someone like Smoral), next year's draft could feel a bit barren by comparison.
ColiverPhD - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#257815) #

It is great to see that SUNY Buffalo catcher Tom Murphy was drafted by our Blue Jays; especially since I earned my Ph.D. from SUNY Buffalo.   Not that that is important, of course, but it is just nice to see.  He is a srong hitther, good power.  He also has a decent skill-set behind the plate.

Best of luck Tom...welcome to the Blue jays!

Anders - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#257816) #
Before the draft report cards come out, I would like to go on the record and say that I think they are a waste of time and ink. I have several reasons for thinking this:

Well said. The only thing I would say is that I think it would be interesting to evaluate how well teams do at working around the rules imposed by the new CBA. The draft is (theoretically) about picking the best possible players, and like you said, all analysts can really analyze is how well teams did according to the analysts own rankings, which if anything are probably not as good as those done by the majority of the teams. However, the artificial structure imposed by the new CBA adds another dimension for evaluation; it will be interesting to see how well (if at all) teams take advantage of the rule, and which teams do the best at getting most bang for their buck (admittedly still a subjective thing to measure).

ColiverPhD - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#257817) #
I meant strong hitter...guess my excitement hindered my typing skills.
ColiverPhD - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#257818) #
Now, let us draft a player from Niagara University!
Forkball - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#257819) #

Jays take Chase DeJong in round 2, a tall RH HS pitcher.

I was guessing that we'd see college players with the bonuses rapidly decreasing, but I guess not yet!

Gerry - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#257820) #
With Beck and Underwood gone, the Jays pick Chase DeJong, another of sam and Kelekin's preferred choices.
Noah - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#257821) #
you guys nailed it again, DeJong's the pick.
MatO - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#257822) #

It is great to see that SUNY Buffalo catcher Tom Murphy was drafted by our Blue Jays;

?

sam - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#257823) #
I liked DeJong also with one of the supplementary picks. He's got a lot of projection left and I think should sign here in the second round. He's not Aaron Sanchez, but he has some real projection left. The fastball is high-80s right now, touching low-90s with two solid off-speed pitchers. With a lot of the Jays draftees, he could be someone completely different in a couple years.

http://www.coast2coastprospects.com/chase-dejong.html

http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=177973

The Jays now have one more "protected" pick. Interesting to see what they do here with this last pick. I think they might go after one more of the somewhat tough signs here.
sam - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#257824) #
Alford might be the hardest signing of the draft. I don't even know it's worth telling you about his tools because he is reported to be that difficult of a sign. The pick is protected.
MatO - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#257826) #
Tom Murphy drafted by Colorado.
Brent S - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#257827) #
Well said Sam. Instead of providing a description, I'll just post this.
sam - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#257828) #
I was really pushing for Onelkis Garcia. He goes a pick after Alford. Unless something has come up in the past couple weeks, expect Alford to go to college. Southern Miss isn't exactly a first round NFL pick machine so who knows. Alford is an athlete who is still learning the game.
ColiverPhD - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#257829) #

MatO...my error.  I saw Murphy's name listed and I thought that he was selected by Toronto.  That is what I get for just making a quick glance.  My apologies to the Batter's Box Community.

hypobole - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#257830) #
"There are a few situations where a team can be criticsed for a pick as the Cubs were for picking Hayden Simpson a few years ago. But those situations are rare."

Gerry, for the most part you're correct, but on this point I have to disagree. It's been fairly commonplace for teams would to lesser projected talent, to save money usually, but also for other reasons such as the famous JPR overruling of his scouts to take Rickey over Tulo because we didn't need a middle infielder.
Forkball - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#257831) #
Alford might be the hardest signing of the draft. I don't even know it's worth telling you about his tools because he is reported to be that difficult of a sign. The pick is protected.     So is this a 'hope for the best', but most likely the Jays are essentially deferring the pick a year?
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#257832) #

From what I've heard there is almost a 0% chance of Alford signing... this could be to free up money for Smoral.

Also, Chase DeJong is the cousin of former Jay Jordan DeJong.

sam - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#257835) #
Look for the Jays to continue a run of drafts where they've taken the best Canadian prospect. Ryan Kellogg should be coming off the board here in the next round or two as someone who will likely sign quick and well below slot.
Brent S - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#257836) #
Marc, the Perfect Game description for Alford states the following:

Not only was Alford in a very comfortable situation regarding school and his sports future, the new CBA draft rules limit the flexibility that teams have in buying talented dual sport athletes out of their second sport. That situation seems to have changed recently, though. Perfect Game was told this week by a cross checker from a National League team that Alford is “back on the market” amidst talk that the person who issued the “no interest in professional baseball at this time” statement wasn’t authorized to do so and that Alford is now telling scouts he is open to discussions. That is potentially good news for professional baseball, as Alford could develop into a dynamic baseball player if he decided to dedicate himself to the sport full-time.

greenfrog - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#257837) #
Slot for Alford is $424,400. Maybe the Jays can come up with more money for Smoral and/or Alford by signing one or more early selections (Davis, perhaps) for less than slot. Or they could offer the savings from those selection(s) to Alford if Smoral turns down the Jays' offer.
Beyonder - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#257838) #
"From what I've heard there is almost a 0% chance of Alford signing... this could be to free up money for Smoral."

It can't free up money becasue they lose the cap space if they don't sign Alford no?
MatO - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#257840) #
Yes they lose the cap space.  The only positive way that the Alford pick can affect other picks is if he signs for under slot.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#257842) #
that is a very encouraging quote, Brent S.
Brent S - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#257844) #
And so it begins. Jays pick Tucker Donahue from Stetson University. Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis are completely at a loss for words when talking about this guy -- not on their radar at all. He's not listed on BA's Top 500.
MatO - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#257846) #

Donahue's a college senior who sucked in 2012.  Obviously a tactical move.

sam - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#257847) #
Not much out there on Donahue. Has worked out of the bullpen at Stetson. I'm sure this is a signability pick, so the Jays have likely created some room here. He is a sinker baller with a low-90s fastball. Guys who can sink the ball in the high-80s, low-90s usually have a good chance to start.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/college/2011/06/tucker-donahue-delivers-hatters-into-rematch-with-gamecocks/
ayjackson - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#257848) #

Punt.

Beyonder - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#257849) #
Well that's my understanding also MatO. I'm finding it strange that there is so much discussion about the new rules but no one seems to have a copy of them.
Beyonder - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#257850) #
Now there's a strategy. Draft the equipment manager from some junior college and offer him 10 grand and the chance to say he got drafted. Pocket remaining cap space and use to sign others.
ayjackson - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#257851) #
Slot for Donahue is $307,800.  We'll see if they can sign him for $100k or less.
MatO - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#257852) #
Drafted in the 38th round last year by Texas.  Lousy control.  I see nothing that would indicate he's actually improved since his Junior season.  Was there no better college senior available?
Gerry - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#257853) #

From BA:

After an excellent junior season, Donahue slumped as a senior at Stetson. He had split time between the rotation and bullpen in 2011, but he was a full-time reliever this year. At his best, Donahue has good life on his sinking fastball, which generally sits at 90-92 mph. As a reliever, Donahue doesn't have to rely much on his fringy slider and changeup.

Lylemcr - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#257854) #

I like Alford for the 3rd round.  If I remember, Norris was supposed to be 100% unsignable last year.  Nice gamble. He is a good athlete

 

CeeBee - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#257855) #
Since Donahue throws in the low 90's and is an actual college player I suppose it would keep MLB from caring too much. The equipment manager... I imagine Bud would be all over it and the Jays would pay one way or another.
Gerry - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#257856) #

Players have to be registered for the draft.  To be registered you need a track record.  Some teams were reported to have looked at registering their interns but that was rejected by MLB.  That might be a joke but teams have probably looked at such alternatives.

 

Moe - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#257857) #
I guess the plan is to go with high upside guys who might not sign for all the protected picks and then nothing for rounds 4-10, creating a lot of cap room. If it works, that would be perfect way around the new system. Of course, the problem is that you spread your budget over very few players whereas in years past there was the odd guy in later rounds who got some nice bonus.



ayjackson - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#257858) #
I think you can still go overslot up to $250k post round 10 for the Drew Hutchison types...so there is some potential assets in the later rounds.
Moe - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#257859) #
And anther:

Brad Delatte, JR from Nicholls State, LHP


Moe - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#257860) #
Sorry, SR -- of course.

Those advanced Rookie teams will be crowded this year.


Forkball - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#257861) #

Brad Delatte, LHP, Nichols St.  Another senior reliever taken.  I think the strategy is clear now.  Although maybe Delatte will be good enough for a cup of De coffee.....

The last two picks have slots of $540k.  The Jays will probably sign them for $20k each and use that money elsewhere.

Given the success rate of players beyond the top 50-100 players this is probably the soundest strategy.  Load up on the best players early and then use the money from later picks to sign them.

I haven't been paying attention to other teams.  Is this a common strategy, or unique to the Jays?

Forkball - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#257862) #
I think you can still go overslot up to $250k post round 10 for the Drew Hutchison types...so there is some potential assets in the later rounds.       If you exceed $100k after round 10 it counts towards your top 10 round bonus allocation.    http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-preview/2012/2613426.html
MatO - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#257863) #
I see the Red Sox took a college senior in the 5th round as well.
Gerry - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#257864) #

If you want to save some cash you have to do it in an early enough round that you save some serious cap room but not too early that you let good quality players go to other teams.   The sweet spot seems to be the fourth or fifth round.  When universal free agency is discussed the opinion appeared to be that the top quality players would get their big dollars but the mid-level guys would not.  That appears to be happending here, teams are making room to pay the players they really want to sign and the rest are getting much less dollars.

You are also seeing the approx cut-off for a HS player to pass on a scholarship.  The Jays could have picked a HS player in the fourth and fifth rounds and paid them the $400k or so but it appears that either that is not enough to keep said player from college or it is not enough to keep a really good HS player from college.

 

MatO - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#257865) #
I suspect we'll see nothing but college seniors through the 10th round.  Starting with the 11th round will we see the Drew Hutchison type guys being selected since there will be essentially a $100,000 deductible on each pick?
Moe - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#257866) #
That appears to be happending here, teams are making room to pay the players they really want to sign and the rest are getting much less dollars.

I agree. Of course, that creates an opportunity for an alternative approach: spread your money evenly across 12 upper-mid tier guys that are otherwise screwed. Odds are one or two will work out which is about the same as picking 4 late first round/supplemental guys. Depending on the state of your system, your division etc, that could be a winning approach as well.


ayjackson - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#257867) #

If you exceed $100k after round 10 it counts towards your top 10 round bonus allocation.

For some reason I had $250k in my head.

Moe - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#257868) #
And another Senior: Eric Phillips, 3B, Georgia Southern.

I wonder what their price tag is? They know the teams must sign them or else no surplus is generated to be redistributed to other slots.

soupman - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#257869) #
what if the big names don't sign this year? Seems like this could end up being a lost class if two or 3 of the top guys choose school...

please tell me i'm being silly!

Geoff - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#257870) #
Phillips became the all-time hits leader for Georgia Southern University a few weeks ago with his 327th hit.

He is looking forward to beating Tony Fernandez's 1583 hits by 2024.

Kelekin - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#257871) #
Yeah - three straight picks outside of the top 500 is interesting.  One of the good ones, Hunter Virant, seems poised to go to college.  Eight "top 100" players still on the board.
Greg - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#257872) #
Perhaps these "strategic" signees will be extra-motivated to prove they're legitimate prospects and come out like gang-busters

...which is me desperately searching for a reason to be excited!

Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#257873) #
I have put together my predictions for the expected signing amounts:

Pick Pick Expected Bonus 17 DJ Davis $1,500,000 22 Stroman $1,300,000 50 Smoral $1,500,000 58 Nay $600,000 60 Gonzales $900,000 81 DeJong $600,000 112 Alford $2,600,000 145 Donahue $40,000 175 Delatte $50,000 205 Phillips $50,000 235 Senior $50,000 265 Senior $50,000 295 Senior $20,000 325 Senior $20,000

This gives a gran total of $9,280,000 or $2800 under the maxi amount without losing draft picks. Now this is the only realistic scenario we sign Alford I can see it, and if he does not sign I can see the Jays re-allocating his amount into making sure they sign Smoral and take a few Drew Hutchinson type picks past the tenth round.

Kelekin - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#257874) #
On the flipside, if you can't get Alford under contract, your draft looks significantly weaker to have picked a bunch of mid-round guys in earlier rounds.
eldarion - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#257875) #
I absolutely love this strategy - leave it to AA and his staff to come up with a way to ensure that they can draft and sign the high upside players they want. If they can sign Alford, it will be a coup from everything I'm reading online.
Kelekin - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#257876) #
Bolt, Poteet, and Kellogg still on the board.
CeeBee - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#257877) #
College seniors that are basically fill-picks can't have much leverage. Pay me slot or I'll get a real job? Who but the most stubborn wouldnt take (25-100?)grand plus the chance to play a year or more of minor league ball.
metafour - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#257878) #
On the flipside, if you can't get Alford under contract, your draft looks significantly weaker to have picked a bunch of mid-round guys in earlier rounds.


It doesn't look any weaker because we drafted 6 guys in front of Alford including 3 guys who are legitimate 1st round talents (Stroman, Davis, Smoral).  Even without Alford we added huge talent.
Kelekin - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#257879) #
Here are the stats for our Round 4-6 picks.  Based on these, Phillips is actually intriguing, but the first two are very clear signability mid-late round players:

2012:

Donahue - 5.20 ERA, 27.2 IP, 6.18 BB/9, 8.78 K/9, 1.70 WHIP
Delatte - 2.86 ERA, 34.2 IP, 4.67 BB/9, 9.09 K/9, 1.21 WHIP
Phillips - .391/.459/.563, 5 HR, 29 SB, 25:15 BB:K

Career:
Donahue - 5.47 ERA, 123 IP, 5.98 BB/9, 8.03 K/9 1.74 WHIP
Delatte - 5.21 ERA, 131 IP, 4.93 BB/9, 7.88 K/9, 1.60 WHIP
Phillips - .366/.432/.511, 20 HR, 73 SB, 87:66 BB:K

The Baseball Cube's aggregate statistical rankings had Phillips as the 6th best statistical hitter in the Southern Conference last year and his numbers this year are about the same.  Not too sure why this guy has no profile, he could be a steal.

eldarion - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#257880) #
From www.perfectgame.org:

ALFORD IS A 6-2, 220-POUND outfielder and shortstop from Petal, Miss., who Perfect Game ranked as the nation’s 46th top 2012 prospect before the PG National – a ranking that is sure to rise. A PG blogger at the event identified him as a player who “is very strong and showed a fast bat with good power potential.”

And while rivals.com has Winston ranked the No. 1 dual-threat quarterback prospect in the land, Alford isn’t far behind. In fact, rivals.com ranks him No. 2 (No. 105 overall regardless of position).

He had received nine D-I offers through June 19, with in-state schools Ole Miss and Mississippi State among them. Other notables that have offered include Alabama, LSU, South Carolina, Texas and Nebraska.

On Sunday, Alford wasn’t thinking about any pending decisions that need to be made.

“Right now I’m trying not to worry about it,” he said. “I’m just trying to be a kid and have fun and be young, and when the time comes I’ll make that decision.”

Like Winston at Hueytown High School, Alford put up ridiculous quarterback numbers during his junior year at Petal High School.

He passed for 1,399 yards and 16 touchdowns and added 1,253 yards and 19 TDs on the ground. He was named the Mississippi Gatorade Player of the Year, a rare accolade for a junior.

Alford said right now he probably enjoys playing football a little bit more, but added, “I still have a passion for the game of baseball.”

Alford’s father, Anthony Alford Sr., said the family will wait and see how the 2012 MLB draft unfolds before any decisions about Anthony Jr.’s future are set in stone.

“Right now he’s just being a kid, trying to do ‘em both,” Anthony Sr. said. “Whatever season it is, he just pours whatever he’s got into it. As a father, I’d say it will be baseball, but I love football, as well.”

Starling and Bradley in 2011. Winston and Alford in 2012. Whatever decision those young athletes ultimately make, all four will emerge as winners.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#257881) #

These are the slots for the Jays' 1-10 round picks

1. $2,000,000
1.  $1,800,000
1S  $1,000,000
1S $884,100
1S $857,200
2. $620,300
3. $424,400
4. $308,700
5. $231,100
6. $173,200
7. $145,000
8. $135,400
9. $126,400
10. $125,000

I find it hard to imagine the Jays can get both Smoral and Alford done... but you never know.

Kelekin - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#257882) #
Parmley is another speedy guy like Phillips and was a draft-eligible sophomore, so it would be interesting to see if he signs or if he goes back for another year.  Showed speed and a decent eye, not fantastic contact.  This isn't quite a "sign for cheap" pick as expected.
ayjackson - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#257883) #

I would think that the Jays aren't just pulling numbers out of a hat - that they have spoken to advisors and have a "sense" of what they would sign for if they went earlier than expected.

Correct me if I'm wrong through, but isn't the signing deadline for college seniors midnight before the next rule 4 draft?

Moe - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#257884) #
Parmley is another speedy guy like Phillips and was a draft-eligible sophomore

Parmley is listed as SR and DOB Dec '89, sounds like SR to me.


sam - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#257885) #
Gerry is right about the bonus and drafting strategy. I don't want to say the draft is over as there are plenty of college seniors who have had great professional careers, but it would seem college seniors with little upside will be the picks the rest of the way. There might be a high schooler here and there, but not any big names. Don't let these picks fool you into thinking that the Jays will now have the money to get Alford and all the guys taken early on. These guys won't be getting 20K to sign and will likely get $100,000 or thereabouts. Even with that money I don't know if that's enough for Alford and co.. Call me skeptical.

These next two or three years will be tough on teams and the draft. There simply isn't the talent level in the college ranks at the moment so this span from the fourth round will be slim pickings for the next couple drafts. As these kids go to college though in a couple years there might be some more prospects coming out in these rounds.

The Jays are a number of teams who went high school/flashy tools early and now signability with their un-protected picks. The one difference is the Jays were one of the last teams, if not last to take the kid with the real bonus demands in Alford.

Gerry is right as well, it's incredibly hard to evaluate this draft class. There are a lot of positives and it should be fun to watch these guys (if they sign) to come through. Like Sanchez, Nicolino, Marisnick, Syndergaard, Norris, Murphy, Comer, Musgrove, and Thon, I wouldn't read too much into their longterm future and stats until they reach Lansing at the earliest. For virtually all the high school kids that's two-three years down the road. It's another group of athletic kids to add to the system, which is really exciting.

I don't know if many of these kids drafted this year break the Jays' top ten prospects. Stroman probably works his way in there, but I'm not sure any of the other guys crack the top ten.

My current top ten looks like this although I'm sure people may disagree with it:
1. d'Arnaud
2. Gose
3. Sanchez
4. Marisnick
5. Nicolino
6. Stroman
7. Norris
8. Hechevarria
9. Syndergaard
10. Stilson

The depth and upside in the system is simply unbelievable. I mean the Gulf Coast team this year could run out a whole lineup and rotation of guys with all-star potential. The Bluefield team too should be very good and depending on which high school prospects they send to Vancouver, that team should have a nice blend of college kids from this year's draft and maybe a couple high end high school kids from past drafts. There are also a lot of really solid prospects along the way who all have some very real potential to play in the Majors for a fair bit of time. Guys like Sierra, McDade, Beck, Crawford, Gomes, Carreno, Dyson, McGuire, Jenkins, Gracey, Loup, Jimenez, Nolin, Woj, Knecht, Crouse.

I'm excited for this class and I think most of these guys get signed. Jorge Soler is still on the market and the Jays will likely get one or two of the top guys in this year's Latin American crop. So at the end of the day, even with some graduations from the ranks or trades, the Jays still have one of the top systems in baseball. The Jays do play the long game with these kids so be patient.
MatO - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#257886) #
Looks like Parmley played at a Juco for 2 years and then at Liberty for 2 more.  Maybe that's where the confusion comes.  He's listed as a senior.
Gerry - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#257887) #

To paraphrase Kramer, from Seinfeld; But they (the Blue Jays) know, and they are the ones making the picks.

I assume the Jays think the have enough to get both done.  This year, with the way the slotting system works, you can't really do an either-or.  If one of them doesn't sign, the money goes back into next years pool, you can't allocate it to the other pick.   You can allocate your savings on below slot picks but you cannot allocate the slot value.

It could come down to a game of chicken between Smoral and Alford's advisors.  They will know the Jays have say $1M in savings on their below slot picks.  They will each want it for their guy.  The Jays might initally try to split it.  But let's say they offer $600k to one player.  If that player takes it then the Jays have only $400k left for player 2.  If player 1 refuses the $600k offer, the Jays could offer that $600k to the other player and then there will be only $400k left for them.  Having two hard to sign players could give the Jays more leverage and it allows them to play off both players advisors against each other.   We will never know details of the negotiations but the late hours of July 13th could be interesting.

On the other hand those players might have let their demands be known and one of them could sign early.

Kelekin - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#257888) #
Sorry - TheBaseballCube has Parmley as a 20 year old which is where my confusion came in.

ayjackson - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#257889) #

By what percentage can they exceed their bonus allotment without surrendering a pick?  And at what financial penalty (75% up to 5% over, but what beyond that?)

Gerry - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#257891) #
There is a report out there that the Astros asked Mark Appel if he would take $6M if he was the number one pick.  The slot value is $7.2M.  The Astros were saving money so they could sign someone else who turned out to be Lance McCullers.  Appel said no and he dropped to #8 with a slot value of $2.9M.  Could he have cost himself $3M yesterday?  It might not be a surprise then that he refused to talk with reporters after the draft.
MatO - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#257892) #

Rounds 4 through 10 of the draft at the Jays' picks - 145, 175, 205 etc. has produced 9 players since 1965 with a career WAR over 5 (10 if you include Texeira who was a 9th rounder out of HS but didn't sign).  That's out of 350-400 total picks.  I'm sure the Jays are aware of that.

Gerry - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#257893) #

ay: Here are the new rules from BA:

Teams that exceed the signing budget by 0-5 percent will pay a 75 percent tax on the overage. Teams that go over by 5-10 percent will pay the same tax and lose a first-round pick in the next draft. Teams that go over by 10-15 percent will pay a 100 percent tax and lose a first- and second-round pick. And finally, teams that go over by more than 15 percent will pay the 100 percent tax and lose their first-round picks in the next two drafts.

MatO - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#257894) #
Tucker Frawley, C, senior, Coastal Carolina,  3.9 GPA in Physics.
sam - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#257895) #
Little surprised the Jays or any other team hasn't gone after Ryan Kellogg. He has a commitment to Arizona State--a fine baseball program, and his bonus demands have likely scared away some teams. The Jays have made it a priority to get these kids into the system, but Kellogg must have been asking for a couple hundred thousand to forgo the scholarship. Great example of a guy easily signable in the past, but now not under the new rules.
Moe - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#257896) #
And finally, teams that go over by more than 15 percent will pay the 100 percent tax and lose their first-round picks in the next two drafts.

That is such a big tax that you would have to do it for one really crazy year. Go over by a lot, pay a lot of money and loose your picks. No point in going over by 16%.

The Jays strategy this year is indeed very risky. I'm sure they know the SRs will all sign this week for a moderate amount (called 5 min before and ask "would you sign for x") but if all those savings are not enough to get the big names, this could be a horrible year.

And I agree with sam, even if these kids sign, they are not top 10 material at this point.


Richard S.S. - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#257898) #
By 4.999999999999%.
CeeBee - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#257899) #
How many players/agents will rue the day. Looks like crazy money is a thing of the past except for those not a part of the draft.
Moe - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#257900) #
How many players/agents will rue the day. Looks like crazy money is a thing of the past except for those not a part of the draft.

Isn't the total bonus pool about the same as last year's total spending? I know it's very top heavy but if you can get the no.1-5 guys signed for what it historically took (i.e. less than current very high slot), you have some money to pay a 1S or 2nd rounder as in the past, see Astros. The new system is harder on the top teams who have slots 14-30 because there is much less room to create surplus but the draft is supposed to help the weaker teams.

 
rfan8 - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#257901) #
I would think the Jays draft some guys after round ten that have higher upside in case Smoral / Alford don't sign.  They could use the extra money saved from rounds 4-10 on those guys.
sam - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#257902) #
Once we get past round ten look to see some of the high school kids with bonus demands to come off the board. For the Jays, the savings from these college kids drafted now and the $100,000 allowed for any pick after round ten can be used without going over the bonus threshold. These kids can act as a further leverage should Alford, Smoral, Gonzales, DeJong, or Nay decide to ask over-slot.

The Jays have likely created a $500,000-$750,000 surplus here with these draft picks from rounds 4-10. That could (and likely will go to Alford, Smoral, DeJong, Nay, Gonzales). I think Davis signs a bit below slot so there is money there as well. If one of the early picks refuses to sign, a guy drafted here after round ten could well see some of this surplus cash.
sam - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#257903) #
rfan8, exactly what I was thinking! Might see a little bit of a run here on those guys starting in round eleven.
jester00 - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#257904) #

re: sam and rfan8

 

I thought there was a 100k cap on picks after round 10?  I didn't think they could use any money saved from earlier rounds.  Is that not correct?

Beyonder - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#257905) #
Jester. After the tenth round, any surplus over 100g counts against your cap room..
sam - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#257906) #
No, no cap. Any bonus over $100,000 goes towards the overall draft pool. Does that make sense?

If the Jays draft player A in round 11 and give him a $800,000 bonus. They have to find that $700,000 in the bonus pool of picks in rounds 1-10.

In theory the Jays can offer every pick after round 10 $100,000 and it would not count against the bonus pool of $8,000,000 and change. But, if the Jays go over $100,000 after round 10, that difference has to come out of the allotment for rounds 1-10. Make sense?

So what rfan8 and I are saying, "well the Jays have clearly created some room in their bonus pool these last five or six picks. That room can either go to the picks prior, namely Alford and Smoral, or it can go to someone selected here after round ten." With Smoral and Alford there's a "free" million and $424,400 respectively to work with (their allotments). Whereas here, after round ten, there's a "free" $100,000 to work with.

Complicated, but picking a high schooler here with some projection might be wise.
Kelekin - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#257907) #
It's interesting to see in a few years how this new drafting system will play out.  College ball will certainly have more talent, as many more HSers will have no incentive to start a baseball career. 

It's also so strange to now have to witness players that were usually 20th rounders or later being drafted so early on, such as Jordan Leyland.
jester00 - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#257908) #
OK, got it.  Thanks guys.
sam - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#257910) #
Quickly here before round eleven starts some names you might see come off the board if our theory holds:

Jameis Winston OF HS Alabama
Skye Bolt OF HS Georgia
Ryan Kellogg LHP HS Ontario
Cody Poteet RHP HS California
Freddy Avis RHP HS California
C.J. Hinojosa SS HS Texas
Trey Williams 3B HS California
Mitchell Traver RHP HS Texas
Hunter Virant LHP HS California
Walker Buehler RHP HS Kentucky
James Kaprielian RHP HS California
Clate Schmidt RHP HS Georgia
Taylore Cherry RHP HS Ohio
Ryan Burr RHP HS Colorado

I'll try to comment here. Avis and Winston I doubt sign regardless of money. I quite like Schmidt, but again he seems destined to hit and pitch in college. Burr could be a guy who follows a similar career path as Gausman out of the same state.
Beyonder - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#257911) #
Kelekin. It should be fascinating. I think you are right about the college game. A number of talented high school players who would have signed under the old regime are now going to college. What should happen is that as the talent level in the college system increases, more college players will get drafted earlier on. This will in turn force even more high school players into the college system (since there will be fewer large payouts available) strengthening the college ranks even further, to the point where fewer an fewer high school players get drafted every year.
sam - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#257912) #
We just took a guy out of Navy. I'm sure he's not that bad of a prospect as Asher Woj... was out of the Citadel, but this is a little much.
Kelekin - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#257913) #
Which, I'm honestly not opposed to.  Football and Basketball have been pushing players to college, and I think it's just a generally good idea to do so these days.

Alex Azor, our 10th rounder is 23 years old.  He had a really solid sophomore season, but has stagnated since.  He's definitely a contact-only hitter.  He struck out only 39 times during his college career with 698 Plate Appearances.  He might be one of those players who looks good early on in Vancouver/Lansing but struggles past that.

sam - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#257914) #
Not to be outdone, the Dodgers followed by taking a guy out of Academy of the Arts University in San Francisco, with the Red Sox quickly following suit by taking a guy out of Army.
scottt - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#257915) #
All the guys pushed up to college will eventually compete with High School kids down the line. By then, they will have lost a lot of leverage.

With the picks being protected, teams could just go after the best talent available.

Not looking good for Boras.
sam - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#257916) #
Grant Heyman was made for Batter's Box. He has his own website!

http://grantheyman.com/
Brent S - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#257917) #
Did you guys know that Grant Heyman, the Jays' 11th round pick, is "one of New York’s most versatile High School Athletes."

Or, that's what his personal "Athletic Resume" says at least.

TheBunk - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#257918) #
I'm guessing all the seniors the Jays picked are 20,000 guys. There's no reason to take seniors who are slightly better and may demand slightly more when it's potentially the difference between Alford and no Alford.
Kelekin - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#257919) #
There it is - the Jays pop Kellogg.  Hopefully he's good with 100k or he's off to college.
TheBunk - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#257920) #
Kellogg is a very smart pick. Probably more of a 200,000 guy but the added prestige of being drafted by his(presumably) favorite team might get him at 100,000.
TJ Caino - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#257921) #
Hopefully they can Snap Crackle him a contract...

It is entirely possible they have extra $ in the pool to offer Kellogg more than 100K.
Kelekin - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#257922) #
I would argue that our 6th and 8th rounders might get slightly more than 20K, but not much more.  The others...yeah.  To get drafted that early, you must have some form of contact to make sure they'd accept a small amount.
TheBunk - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#257923) #
Good point.
TheBunk - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#257924) #
John Silviano is about as off the board as it gets. Didn't make the gigantic honorable mentions for players outside the top 500 in Florida.
Kelekin - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#257925) #
So all in all, we managed to pick BA's #10, 20, 24, 36, 45, 86, 101 prospects in the draft. 

Even if you made the assumption that the 4th-10th rounders would sign for 20K each, that leaves a draft pool of 8.69M.

If Davis, Stroman, Nay, Gonzalez, and DeJong all signed at slot, that would leave 2.8M for Smoral and Alford.  I think you would need to be closer to the 3.5-4M range to even have a shot at signing both.
TheBunk - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#257926) #
My thinking is that Davis and Gonzales will be below slot. Unsure on Nay.
China fan - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#257927) #
Kelekin, do see any possibility that the Jays pay the "tax" for excess spending to sign these guys?
92-93 - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#257928) #
There might be considerable savings to be had between DJ Davis & Marcus Stroman, perhaps as much as 500k.
sam - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#257929) #
It will be fun and nerve-wracking watching these signings play out in advance of the July 16th deadline. Andrew Tinnish was on the Jays' broadcast a few days back saying he thinks a lot of guys will be signing early and getting out to play. Not sure if that will necessarily be the case with the Jays' picks. Neither of our first round picks were really considered a reach and first rounders do tend to wait a bit to see the bonus amounts of other first rounders. I think Matt Smoral goes down the line and Tyler Gonzales with a scout for a dad probably waits to see where some of the other guys are signing. Mitch Nay could be done early. Alford will of course go down to the wire and I'm not too sure about DeJong. Tinnish was quoted as saying he would be starting negotiations with the draft picks today so who knows what's going to happen.
Kelekin - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#257930) #
While I see Davis going underslot, I don't think Stroman goes much underslot.  He may be diminutive, but he was a consensus top 10-15 pick and went below where he was expected to go.

I don't know if any team risks going over-slot, but it will be really close for teams like Toronto, Washington, and Houston.
Beyonder - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#257931) #
The added dynamic this year is that there is a fixed pool of money available. If I were an agent, I don't know if I would be advising my clients to wait it out. They could be left with nothing. The dominant strategy may be to sign early while money is available.
Gerry - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#257932) #
The expectation coming into this years draft was that all players would be asked what they would sign for. If that happened then Davis and Stroman would have a price established which might speed up their signing.
Kelekin - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#257933) #
Also, with reports that Houston may be signing Correa for around 5M, I could see them getting McCullers done easily now. 
sam - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#257934) #
One more round to go today. I'm sure Tinnish may have some more info for us tonight.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#257935) #
Chris Toman just tweeted that DeJong wants to go pro badly and is "95% signing".
sam - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#257936) #
Gerry that's a good point. As Kelekin has pointed out, it has been a good haul if you follow the rankings. More information will come out in the following days, but signing all these guys might be a bit beyond the Jays budgetary constraints. I don't think any of the prospects are worth the first round penalty and I doubt the Jays will want to pay the tax either.

At this point the Jays have grabbed four of the 20 or so prospects Kelekin and I had listed.
Kelekin - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#257937) #
I'd have to wonder if an interesting draft strategy for rounds 11+ would be to just take all high schoolers that have any form of potential, and hope they develop into something.  If you get a bunch of guys signing out of high school for under 100K, you never know what they could turn into.  Usually a college player is more defined.
Spifficus - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#257939) #
Also, I wonder if they're doing it for counter-leverage to Smoral and Alford, to show that they have somewhere they can funnel the saved money from the other slots if they don't choose to take it.
TheBunk - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#257940) #
Seems like AA's strategy, three of the guys he's drafted post 10th round are juuuuust outside BA's top 500, and athletic. So 100,000 guys who you teach to play baseball.
ramone - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#257941) #
Thought I'd post this, hopefully the writer is wrong about Alford:

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/eye-on-baseball/19269090/the-blue-jays-anthony-alford-and-baseballs-lost-opportunity
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#257942) #
I really like the Jays' strategy in this draft.

The Jays' draft aside, the players who are losing out this year are those who would otherwise have been drafted in the $400K, $300K, $200K, etc. slots but weren't because teams (by drafting lesser prospects who will cost much less) are effectively stockpiling money to pay the more elite prospects chosen in earlier rounds. Some of these mid-range prospects might have signed for amounts in that range but instead are getting squeezed. Presumably they will end up settling for less money (i.e., as a later pick) or re-entering the draft in a future year.
Thomas - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#257943) #
The Jays aren't the only team to use this strategy this draft. There were a lot of teams grabbing college seniors and names way off the board in the latter half of the first 10 rounds. I think the Jays appear to have done a fairly good job at maximizing the high-end return under this system, but they weren't the only team to grab low-end later to potentially compensate for going overslot earlier in the draft.
Beyonder - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#257944) #
It's tough to assess the strategy without knowing what these guys have agreed to sign for. It's only a slight overstatement to say they've punted the last steven rounds of the draft so that they can sign Alford and Smoral. If they fail to sign both, they will have risked an awful lot of talent. Goldstein went on the fan 590 earlier today to say that starting in the fourth round, the jays began drafting guys who were not close to the quality the round number should warrant.
John Northey - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#257945) #
A strategy that would be interesting, that I don't think anyone is using but will have to see rankings afterwards, would be to draft a ton of guys who drop out of the top 10 rounds but who were viewed as first round talent that just wouldn't sign for slot in rounds 11 and beyond. Then go very aggressively after them. Sign more than 2 and you have covered the 'lost picks' in future years with talent today. Your budget goes coo-coo this year, but you save the money in the next 2 years and jump start a farm system. By waiting until round 11 you also have a good fall-back position should they not sign - ie: you don't lose any budget for the guys you though could sign.

It will be interesting to see end results.
John Northey - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#257946) #
As to draft quality, I did this earlier but here is an expanded to cover round 1 to 10 all-time for the Jays using WAR (not exact, but useful for stuff like this)...

1st round: Halladay, Carpenter, Green, Moseby, Vernon Wells, Stewart are 20+'s, Rios, Hill, Romero and Karsay are the others at 10+. So out of 58 first rounders, 6 reached the 'star' level, and 10 total were successes (10+ WAR) to the level it would take to make them worth a big bonus - 17% or less than 1 out of 5.

2nd round: David Wells (49), Derek Bell (11) and all others are under 4. 2 out of 40 (compensation picks) who were worth the pick, or 5%.

3rd: Olerud (53), Key (49), Marcum (13) with just 3 more over 5 (Weathers, Stynes, Myers) so 3 out of 38 or 8%

4th: None above Janssen at 4

5th: Stieb (53), Hentgen (30), Michael Young (24), Timlin (17) then no one over 2.

6th: Borders at 2 is as good as it gets.

7th: Casey Blake at 22.5, No others over 2

8th: Just 4 reached the majors, none with a WAR above 0

9th: Jesse Barfield 37.2, Glenallen Hill 8.1, Jeff Hammonds 7.3 (did not sign)

10th: Ryan Freel 7.9, Josh Phelps 2.4. Yan Gomes is here too.

35 drafts, just 2 guys in round 6-10 had 10+ WAR. So 175 players, 2 who were more than backup/platoon/one or two year wonders and a 3rd who was a World Series MVP. Yeah, I can understand punting those rounds. Round 3-5 produced 7 guys with 10+ out of 108 drafted or just shy of 7%.

Given the Jays have (under AA) gone for star quality I can see why they'd say 'screw it' to rounds 3-10 in an effort to afford better rounds 1 & 2 guys. You might miss a Stieb or Key or Hentgen but odds are that money is better spent in round 1. Of the round 3-5 successes I think only Olerud had a high bonus demand as he was 1st round talent (pitching and hitting) but everyone thought he was going to continue college.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#257948) #

I don't know how badly picks 17, 22, 50, 58, 60 and 81 want to play Professional Baseball now, but they account for $6,304,400.00 of Toronto's $8.830,800.00 budget.   I do know $424,400.00 will not sign pick 112, that I can guarantee.   Top two-sport athletes are all talent and ego, and want to be paid the money to prove it, good luck to A.A. to try.   A.A. needs major mojo magic to sign all these. 

Picks 145, 175, 205, 235, 265, 295 and 325 (courtesy pick - age 24 and a 4-6 year tour in the navy) account for the remaining $2,526,400.00 in the Jays' budget.   I can see them possibly signing for as little as $50,000.00 to $125,000.00 if they want to play Professional Baseball now, or for some, join the economically strained work force as fresh inexperienced rookies.

However, I don't know how badly picks 355, 385, 415, 445 and 475 want to play Professional Baseball, but $100,000.00 each won't cut it.   Where does the money come from?

The first signings will be important, who and how fast indicate A.A's success or failure.

ayjackson - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 11:53 PM EDT (#257952) #

So what rfan8 and I are saying, "well the Jays have clearly created some room in their bonus pool these last five or six picks. That room can either go to the picks prior, namely Alford and Smoral, or it can go to someone selected here after round ten." With Smoral and Alford there's a "free" million and $424,400 respectively to work with (their allotments).

I think this is wrong.  If you don't sign Smoral and Alford, their allotments are removed from your bonus pool.  You don't have a free million and $424k to work with.  You do have the money saved from the underslot signings in rounds 4-10 and that savings can be allocated to high ceiling players after round 10, if you can't use it on Smoral and Alford.

ayjackson - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 12:03 AM EDT (#257954) #

If Davis, Stroman, Nay, Gonzalez, and DeJong all signed at slot, that would leave 2.8M for Smoral and Alford.  I think you would need to be closer to the 3.5-4M range to even have a shot at signing both.

There's also $440k available (5% of pool) by exceeding the allotment prior to losing picks.  The tax is 75% of the overage or $330k, which seems like a small amount to pay to clinch a deal with either of those two players.  Would Smoral take $1.8m and Alford $1.4m?

 

 

sam - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 12:07 AM EDT (#257955) #
ayjackson, I apologize if what I wrote seemed complicated. Everything you say is correct, the "free" money refers the the money already set aside for the pick. Do you understand now?
Thomas - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 01:07 AM EDT (#257958) #
A strategy that would be interesting, that I don't think anyone is using but will have to see rankings afterwards, would be to draft a ton of guys who drop out of the top 10 rounds but who were viewed as first round talent that just wouldn't sign for slot in rounds 11 and beyond.

There aren't "a ton" of first round talent guys left in round 11. That's less a strategy and more wishcasting.

For example, Hunter Vibrant was ranked 53rd by Baseball America and was the highest rated player available in Round 11. The next highest ranked player left, discounting James Winston, since selected was Derick Velasquez at #74. Now, even assuming those ratings by Baseball America are shared by most teams in the industry, which Gerry correctly points out is probably often not the case, the best any team could do would be to draft the 53rd and 64th player and then hope that makes up for the harsh penalties, which seems very, very unlikely.

John Northey - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 06:57 AM EDT (#257962) #
Thomas...good point. Some were talking of first round talent not being drafted due to the new limits but that obviously didn't happen. If it did then that strategy could work. Guess MLB teams didn't trust that quality guys would go to college.
Paul D - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 07:22 AM EDT (#257963) #
I think an interesting strategy would be to try to draft Boras clients in each round.
Moe - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 07:43 AM EDT (#257964) #
Some were talking of first round talent not being drafted due to the new limits but that obviously didn't happen.

I think it's mostly 2-4 round talent that wasn't drafted as much as in the past. Since this is the first year under the new system, different teams played different strategies. With baseball being a copy-cat industry (although not as a much as basketball), I expect that trend to be even stronger next year. Great for top guys and college seniors who might get a little more than in the past but bad for 2nd tier guys.

Although if everyone does that, it opens the door for an interesting deviation: only draft these 2nd tier guys. Save a lot on the 1st pick so you can go over slot all the way down. Maybe pick up 12-15 2nd tier guys. Given the uncertainty surrounding HS players, if you pair that with good scouting, you probably do just as well on average picking 12 2nd tier guys than picking 2-3 1st tier guys. 


Moe - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 08:04 AM EDT (#257966) #
DeJong is apparently getting 1S money, so about 300k more than slot. That's not much but it makes it just a bit harder to get Alford.

85bluejay - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#257975) #

Excellent work Sam & Kelekin, you made the draft really enjoyable -Though not as exciting as last year, overall I like this draft & the draft strategy - in the AL East the jays need high ceiling talent and since the jays aren't getting it in FA then it's the draft/trade route - hope Davis turns out better than our last foray into speedy outfielder (Eiland/Brisker/Wilson) - a couple of questions

Is there any concern that Davis &b Gonzales were 2 of the 3 oldest HS drafted on day 1 given the studies linking age with future success? 

If Stroman ends up a BP guy as most draft analyst seem to suggest, how much of a disappointment would that be?

Of the HS guys the jays drafted in the 11-15 rds., whom do you like best & if Smoral/Alford take a pass,which of those is likely to command the most money?

 

  

John Northey - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#257977) #
A good question for those of you who are strongest on the amateur scene... which players the Jays drafted would be worth losing a pick over?  Any worth losing 2 picks over?  Or a group of them that would be worth it?

No question that is a strategy someone will use - if not this year then next - to draft high end talent and write off a pick or two in the future.

Forkball - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#257979) #

Great for top guys and college seniors who might get a little more than in the past but bad for 2nd tier guys.

I'm guessing these college seniors aren't doing better, they're just getting drafted earlier with similiar bonuses.

Although if everyone does that, it opens the door for an interesting deviation: only draft these 2nd tier guys. Save a lot on the 1st pick so you can go over slot all the way down. Maybe pick up 12-15 2nd tier guys. Given the uncertainty surrounding HS players, if you pair that with good scouting, you probably do just as well on average picking 12 2nd tier guys than picking 2-3 1st tier guys. 

Interesting thought, but, at least taking the Jays strategy of starting the senior picks in round 4, you're looking at players outside of the top 100.  That's a lot of lottery tickets without much upside.  Maybe you get a Ryan Roberts type out of it, but Ryan Roberts isn't an expensive player to acquire.

Moe - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#257984) #
No question that is a strategy someone will use - if not this year then next - to draft high end talent and write off a pick or two in the future.

I don't think this year's group fits that bill. But if you decide that before the draft and go crazy (like the Jays last year or even more), it makes sense. Especially if you're doing well this season and can expect to pick towards the end of the first round next year.


Moe - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#257987) #
If Stroman ends up a BP guy as most draft analyst seem to suggest, how much of a disappointment would that be?

If you get a solid RP with pick 22, you did ok. If you get a star closer, you did well.

Gerry - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#257990) #
If DeJong is getting over slot then how do the Jays sign both Smoral and Alford?  The only way is if Davis is taking less than slot.
Anders - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#257993) #
If DeJong is getting over slot then how do the Jays sign both Smoral and Alford? The only way is if Davis is taking less than slot.

I think that teams are going to have to hire game theorists to help out with these negotiations. The Jays are going to have a significant amount of money to go over slot with thanks to the 7 college seniors; they could just tell Dejong, Smoral and Alford that the first two to sign get the money, and they don't mind eating the pick until net year (they're protected, no?) The Jays would lose that pick's slot money, but if they are $1 million over they would just divide it between 2 players as opposed to 3. There is a loss in value by deferring a pick for a year, but it might be made up for in having that extra pick as it increases a teams pool to work with the following year, which would give the Jays much more flexibility to take high upside tough-sign guys. Then again, they might sign all three. I wonder how this strategy will work in deeper years.

Moe - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#257995) #
If DeJong is getting over slot then how do the Jays sign both Smoral and Alford?  The only way is if Davis is taking less than slot.

My guess is that they plan on getting one of those guys this year, more likely Smoral. They liked Alford and the pick was protected so they took him in case Smoral is not taking all the money they saved for him.

The Jays probably saved 1m in rounds 4-10. If we assume that DeJong is a wash with Davis and the other 1/1S guys are a wash as well, that leaves enough money for Smoral (2m) and maybe 2-3 guys from 11+. If Smoral doesn't sign, they can offer Alford 1.5m and if he says no sign another few 11+ guys (in fact, one of the 11+ guys said something to the effect that him signing depends on who else the Jays can get to sign). Sound strategy since Smoral and Alford are protected.

Note, there is also about 400k excess spending possible without loosing a pick next year.



Forkball - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#258001) #
If DeJong is getting over slot then how do the Jays sign both Smoral and Alford?  The only way is if Davis is taking less than slot.

Smoral's pool amount is $1.00 million.  How much over that do the Jays really need to go? 

I think it'll be tough for the Jays to get Alford signed, but I think the rest will all be signed pretty easily.

 

Gerry - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#258002) #
I saw a tweet from Smoral today that said he was on his way to Dunedin.  What for?  It could be to be schmoozed by the Jays.  It could be for a pre-negotiation physical.  It could be to sign based on a pre-draft deal.  Who knows?
Gerry - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#258003) #
It appears that Nye is headed for Dunedin today too and he seems ready to sign.
sam - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#258005) #
Thank you for the comments. Just to answer a few questions here. No pick in this class is worth loosing a first rounder next year or paying the tax.

DeJong was always going to get slightly over slot and I wouldn't be surprised if Gonzales did as well. I don't have a good feel of how much Nay will sign for. He was one of several prospects to work out exclusively for the Jays so I do wonder if there was some sort of agreement before hand. Davis' slot was $2 million. I wouldn't surprised if the Jays try to get him done for $1.3-1.5 million. Smoral and Alford will both want serious money. My guess is Stroman gets slot unless there's some agreement that he pitches in the big leagues this year, in which case he could sign for less and take the major league money as a "bonus."

The college guys selected from rounds 4-10 should all sign below slot. I think a lot of the guys will get between $50,000-100,000. I gather most will make their way to Vancouver this summer. I'm in Vancouver right now and I'll try to get out to some games and chart/do write-ups of the action.

I think the Jays have done well here from rounds ten on. A lot of these guys will not sign for $100,000. A few, however, might sign for a little more than that. A lot of these guys are physically immature, but it's not hard to dream on a lot of them. Ryan Borucki, for example, is a skinny 6'4 LHP out of a high school in the Chicago area. Check out the article below.

http://mundelein.suntimes.com/sports/13001818-419/baseball-bluejays-draft-mundeleins-borucki.html

Here's him throwing in front a whole swath of scouts.

http://www.prepbaseballreport.com/profiles/IL/Ryan-Borucki-8120375496

I don't know if I believe 92mph, but it's not hard to dream on the frame and clean arm action that he might put it altogether. I like him as a prospect a lot.

Ryan Kellogg as well is an Ontario kid with a big frame and college commitment to Arizona State. He shows a good feel for pitching and will likely gain a bit to the fastball. Another guy pro teams would love to get into their system and get pro instruction and just let the body develop. As was mentioned too, the enticement of playing for the home club might be enough to get him signed. I imagine though he was looking for 3rd-5th round money.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKZszAflElE

Matt Rose a RHP out of a high school north of the old Dodger complex in Vero Beach Florida is another tall lanky kid with a ton of projection. A guy the Jays could have scooped up for a couple hundred thousand and just let develop. He has a commitment to Georgia State.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLC0Za_x34A

Anyways there are a few guys here that could feasibly sign for the $100,000, although most I think will go to college unless a team offers a bit more.

Keep in mind though, there were 125 picks (rounds one to three) that were "protected" in this draft. Of those picks, 55 were of college or junior college players. Once round four came along teams unanimously started taking college seniors who presumably will sign well below slot and perhaps below $100,000. For these kids then, especially after seeing how teams are approaching the new rules, they've got to honestly believe that come three years from now, or next year if they're going to JuCo, that they will be one of the best 50 odd college players in the country. Now that number may rise, but if there's any doubt that you're not going to be one of those guys, take the $100,000 and scholarship money all teams offer as part of the deal if pro-ball doesn't work out.
sam - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#258006) #
I don't know what the Nationals are doing here. They have drafted virtually every player that is unsignable. There's no guarantee that Giolito signs and the college guys they've taken are not "cheap" picks either. Now they're taking all the difficult signs. There is every chance they come out of this draft with one or two "prospects" instead of a half dozen or more.
sam - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#258007) #
This might be best put in another thread, but a couple reports on guys potentially signing.
Matt Smoral - "Heading to Dunedin"
Mitch Nay - Heading to Dunedin"
Chase DeJong - "95% signing"
Zak Wasilewski - Saying he'll sign. http://bdtonline.com/localsports/x234185576/Wasilewski-chooses-Blue-Jays-over-Gamecocks
- He, like Borucki, has had an elbow scare in recent months.
92-93 - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#258008) #

My guess is Stroman gets slot unless there's some agreement that he pitches in the big leagues this year, in which case he could sign for less and take the major league money as a "bonus."

Very intriguing idea. If the Jays guarantee him September action, that's essentially another 80k, and even more when you consider the value to Stroman of knowing he'll burn an option in 2013.

Please elaborate on what you said about Nay working out exclusively for the Jays. Is this common?

eungar - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#258009) #
interesting thought... would it be worth it for the jays to take a guy like jameis winston in like the 40th round and get him to sign for like $10,000 and say you can play football but in the event that you decide to play baseball we have your rights? maybe in the next 3 years he decides, like jeff samarzidja(sp) that he doesnt want to play football and wants to play baseball. then the jays get a guy with a ton of potential and even if he stays with football its a small investment to make for a potentially very large reward.
sam - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#258010) #
Wasilewski has had an ACL tear and elbow tear before 18.
Beyonder - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#258011) #
Anders. That sort of offer could not work because the amount of money the team can offer hinges on who signs. If Smoral signs for example, he expands the size of the potential offer pot a good deal more than Alford.

It's worth running through a scenario to see how this could play out. I would negotiate in the following order:

1) Deal with Stroman and Davis and try to get them under slot. (Hope to achieve savings of 600G)

2) Skip over the sandwich and second-round guys, and Alford.

3) Hopefully they have selected someone in the fourth round who is a very cheap and easy sign. Sign him. Then use that precedent to negotiate the lowest possible deals. Proceed round by round, all the way up through the draft. (Aim for savings of 800G)

4) Sign Nay and any others you can for anything up to their slot amount. Tell these guys that if they demand more than 90% of their slot amount, then they will just have to wait until the first round of bargaining is complete. At that point the Jays can see how much money is left, and make another allocation. Hopefully this will put some pressure on the draftees to sign early and at some discount.

5) Be prepared to exceed the cap to the tune of 4.9% (saving 440G)

6) Then go after Smoral, Alford, and DeJong (in that order). The team would have at least 1.84 million to play with, plus their respective slot allocations.

If they can do much better than this I will be surprised.

If this is all they can drum up, I can't see the Jays signing all three. Smoral alone (and for some reason I see him as the priority) will eat up 1 million of that amount. From there we see whether Alford will sign for the remainder (about 1.2 million including his slot amount). That would leave DeJong with nothing more than his slot amount (which he might take if you believe the stories about his interest in signing).

sam - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#258013) #
92-93, Chris Sale did this a few years back where he signed almost immediately at about slot with the understanding that he would get out and play earlier and also be a bit quicker to the big leagues. It worked out for him and he got some big league innings that year out of the bullpen.

Teams do often hold private-invite workouts. The kids obviously have to agree to come and they are usually held at a club's home ballpark or a major league stadium on the road, or sometimes minor league stadiums. Usually these are held closer to the draft and are an opportunity for the higher ups to see kids and talk to them frankly about signing and such. The workouts usually consist of a few of the better players in an area. The Jays have usually held these in California when the big club has made their way out there. Kids do have to be careful when attending them. Two years ago I believe a middle infield prospect from California who ended up going to the Indians, I believe it was Tony Wolters attended one put on by the Jays. His school district got wind of it and suspended him for the rest of his high school season. Buck Martinez was on the broadcast last night saying he saw Nay in person recently. Jamie Campbell as well said he saw Stryker Trahan. The only opportunity these guys could have seen these kids was if the Jays had them in recently for some kind of workout.

Teams will also host open events. It's a good way for an area scout to get some familiarity with the kids in an area and coaches love the events for they gain a professional contact, especially if the scout uses the team's home field, which the coach can then market to future players. This honestly means nothing, but everyone wins here as kids feel like they're getting exposure, coaches feel more important, and the scout can quickly assess whether any of the kids are worth following.

The MLB scouting bureau will also holds events where several teams, if not all, will have area guys at the event. The events are an assembly line of ball players. Outfielders will run sixties, throw from the outfield, and perhaps get a few swings off a pitcher. Everything is very controlled. Infielders will run sixties, take a few ground balls and a few swings. Pitchers will get a twenty to thirty pitch opportunity to show arm strength, and catchers will run a sixty, take a few swings (if lucky), and throw the ball down to second a couple times. Scouts are looking for fast guys, big players who look good in a uniform, good arms, and quick bats. Kids don't get drafted based on these events, but someone who shows well at a Bureau event might get a "follow" from an area scout at a high school or summer league game. The kids who go through this process are often not the big-time prospects, but plenty of guys have got their start here.
Gerry - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#258014) #
According to Peter Gammons, Matt Smoral's aunt used to work in baseball operations for the Indians when John Farrell was there.  Gammons says that Smoral and the Jays have agreed to a deal, per Mike Cormack it's for $1M which he says is slot.
Beyonder - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#258015) #
Wow. That's fantastic. All I heard during the draft was how Smoral was one of the big sliders due to signability concerns. Fantastic value if correct. Makes Alford and DeJong much more likely.
92-93 - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#258016) #
Thanks Sam. I misinterpreted what you said to mean the Jays were the only team working out Nay before the draft.

I got the sense Cormack was just informing his followers what slot was for Smoral, not that he was reporting Smoral had signed for it.
Beyonder - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#258017) #
Yeah. After reading the tweet I agree it's unclear. I asked him to clarify, but we'll find out one way or another soon.
sam - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#258018) #
On Winston, what you're proposing doesn't work. My understanding, with the new rules, the ability to draft a two-sport player and pay him a pro-rated bonus where you give the kid $4 million, but actually $2 million is applied to the pool is not in the rules and not possible. Zach Lee was recently drafted by the Dodgers and my understanding was the $5.25 bonus he got was somewhat backloaded and protected should he decide to give up baseball part way through his minor league career and return to football. Attracting the two-sport star to baseball is one of the major issues of the new CBA. Also, your exclusive rights to a player is only until July 16th. At that point, Winston is not able to be drafted until his junior year of college if he stays registered. My understanding is the Rangers are thinking about building some sort of relationship in which Winston plays football at Florida State and not baseball, yet still plays professional baseball at some point. This is an interesting way of getting around the new rules. Winston would still have to sign a professional contract, which would likely mean him forfeiting any athletic scholarship money from Florida State. He cannot play baseball at Florida State under any circumstances in this situation. It's an option, but one which the pro baseball people, college football people, and the family would have to agree on. Essentially the Rangers would be giving Winston $100,000 to risk injury and blunting of baseball development with no guarantee of him honouring the contract long term as starting quarterback at Florida State he might have a shot at the NFL draft in three years time. The flip side of course is he doesn't cut it at Florida State in the next few years and picks up a bat full-time. Winston is the no. 2 HS QB in the nation.
Beyonder - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#258021) #
MCormack has clarified: he doesn't know how much Smoral signed for, just that he signed.
Spifficus - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#258024) #
It looks like an amusing race between the Mets and the Jays to see who selects more high schoolers. Jays are ahead 21-20.
PeterG - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#258025) #
Tyler Gonzalez has agreed to sign for slot and is off to Dunedin. This according to John Lott.
85bluejay - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#258026) #

with this CBA, if you sign a guy from the 9th round for say $150 thousand - the entire amount counts against your pool money but if you sign a guy from the 11th round to the same amount, only 50 thousand counts against your pool  - so teams are exploiting this loophole , I expect it will be tackled in the next CBA

How about  SS Kenny Diekroeger - turned down 2mil out of high school - gets drafted in the 4th rd this time, apparently on merit - that's a big hit

Beyonder - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#258027) #

I don't think that's quite right 85Bluejay. If you sign a guy in the ninth round for 150G, his slot amount (say 135G) is added to your pool, and you are either required to make up the 15G overage through savings obtained through other signings, or you must pay the penalty.

If you sign a guy in round 11, the slot amount is 100G, but there is no difference in the way the overage is treated.
85bluejay - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#258028) #

85bluejay - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#258029) #

Beyonder,

Perhaps - but my understanding is that the pool money a team is allotted is based on the picks it has in the top 10 rounds - starting with the 11th round, that money doesn't count as part of a teams pool money - it's a flat 100 grand for every pick in every round - you are penalized if you pay more than 100 grand with the excess amount counting against your pool money

eg.  your pool amount is 10.5 mil  - pay 150 grand to 9th rounder - entire amount goes against pool amount

                                                        pay 150 grand to 11th rounder  - only excess 50 grand counts against your pool amount   

the flaw is that a teams pool money is only based on the slot amounts for the top 10 rounds.  

Marc Hulet - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#258031) #
Interesting... From Baseball America: 

Stetson righthander Tucker Donahue has already signed for a four-digit bonus; Donahue declined to give the exact amount.

“I’d say 10 of the 15 all asked if I would sign for something like that. As a senior, I knew it could happen. I figured the high draft round sticks with you. I thought it was worth trading a few grand to be a higher-round pick. Money disappears, but I will forever be a fourth-round pick.”

...That is a very big savings... around $300,000.

lexomatic - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#258032) #
Consider me disappointed if Stroman goes to the pen.
Anyone else seen this yet? very positive


http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/pitchers-of-the-2012-draft-first-round-analysis/


sam - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#258033) #
Marc Hulet would be referring to this article:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/06/talking-with-seniors-who-signed-cheap/
scottt - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#258034) #
To have any pool money to spent on round 11 and beyond, you must have signed someone under slot in the first 10 rounds.

You could pick 10 cheap guys and go for broke, but there might not be much left.
85bluejay - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#258036) #
For whatever it's worth, Keith Law is saying Smoral deal is close to 2mil 
Beyonder - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#258037) #
85bluejay. A teams cap is the sum total of the individual slot allocations for all of the players it signs. The jays cap is about $8,840,000' but only if it signs all 14 of its picks. If they fail to sign Dj Davis for example, their cap automatically decreases by 2 million (his slot allocation amount).

Players signed after round ten can be offerred anywhere up to 100G, but any overage counts against the cap.
Kelekin - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#258038) #
If Smoral signs for 2M, that will sure make the Alford deal rather tricky. 
92-93 - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#258039) #
They should still be able to offer Alford around 2m if they can get Davis/Stroman for underslot deals.
scottt - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#258040) #
I would think you need to sign the under slot guys first or you might paint yourself into a corner.
PeterG - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#258041) #
Tinnish has said that most of the college seniors have signed but names won't be released yet. Donahue for under 10K has already leaked.
sam - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#258042) #
Davidi is also saying all those seniors are signing for four figures. If Smoral is signing for $2 million and Gonzales "at slot" or thereabouts and DeJong at supplemental money, then in my spread sheet the Jays are still roughly $50,000 in the red of the people signed.

If you believe all these reports, any money for Alford will have to come from Davis, Stroman, or Nay.
Gerry - Wednesday, June 06 2012 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#258043) #
Gregor Chisholm has a transcript of Tinnish's comments on his blog.

http://gregorchisholm.mlblogs.com/
Moe - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 02:58 AM EDT (#258045) #
Marc Hulet would be referring to this article:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/06/talking-with-seniors-who-signed-cheap/


Interesting article. And interesting how these kids differ. I would have thought more like Barraclough (STL draftee) -- give me a little more than you normally would for SRs and we both win. But Donahue's thinking of forever being a 4th rounder is appealing as well.

How much do you make in the minors. All of these kids have degrees, often in business, so it's not like they won't find a job. If playing in the minors pays 40k/year, they might be better off working. Of course, if you believe you'll make it, it's a different story but the odds are heavily stacked against them.


Moe - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 03:07 AM EDT (#258046) #
I don't think that's quite right 85Bluejay. If you sign a guy in the ninth round for 150G, his slot amount (say 135G) is added to your pool, and you are either required to make up the 15G overage through savings obtained through other signings, or you must pay the penalty.

If you sign a guy in round 11, the slot amount is 100G, but there is no difference in the way the overage is treated.


There is no difference how the overage is treated, the slot is just lower in round 11. However, the important difference is how the underage is treated. If you sign a 9th rounder for 10k, you have money to redistribute to other picks, if you sign an 11th rounder for 10k, there is no such benefit.

This system is very poorly designed and open to a lot of manipulation. Which of course is not surprising. It's a compromise between the hard slot and the no limit guys. It would have been more sensible to add 3m to everybody's pool (100k*30, or less) and make all 40 rounds subject to the cap. Then teams could have still saved budget by drafting seniors in rounds 25+ and overall there would have been less gaming.

 
Beyonder - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 08:18 AM EDT (#258047) #
I think the solution is obvious: hard slotting as in the nba. I'm sure the owners asked for this but could only obtain the watered down version in place today.
ayjackson - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 08:22 AM EDT (#258048) #

If the senior discounts all sign for $10k or less, that would give the Jays $1.17m in extra bonus.

If all picks sign, the Jays could exceed the $8.8m cap by $0.44m and only pay a $0.33m tax (small price to pay, I'd say, especially for Alford). 

So just under $1.6m is available for overslot signs, without consideration of possible underslot signs in the first three rounds.

Beyonder - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#258049) #
I guess we can subtract Smoral's million dollars over slot from that number. Not a lot to work with.
John Northey - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#258050) #
I wonder if teams will make a bit of an agreement with some guys to give them a shot at higher levels than they'd have been likely to reach otherwise - especially pitchers.  IE: a college senior normally would be looking at Vancouver or another short-season A ball league to start (and end) their career at.  But if you told a guy you'd give him a shot in AA or AAA in the pen then some of these guys might go for it in the same way the one guy was excited about being a 4th round pick.  These are guys who know the odds of them getting a ML shot is slim to none, but saying you reached AAA (and being able to prove it of course) and was just one step from the majors could be a big selling point to get them to sign for next to nothing.  The manager at AAA puts the kid in for an inning or two in blowouts, then you demote him back to low A for the rest of the year and release him at seasons end (most likely) and he has his story and the team has its bonus space.
whiterasta80 - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#258051) #

It will be interesting to see how blatant the Jays get with gaming the system. Theoretically, Donahue and company could be called up in September and make up much of the money that they "lost" when they signed for cheap.  Dirty pool yes, but I don't see anything other than the 40 man roster preventing the Jays from doing so.

Brent S - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#258052) #
I think there is a more elegant solution to the draft: instead of having a one year bonus pool, replace it with a five year bonus pool that is adjusted for the previous year's win/loss record.

That way, teams who may not like a particular year's crop of players have the ability to become more creative and pool their resources.

Anders - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#258053) #
It will be interesting to see how blatant the Jays get with gaming the system. Theoretically, Donahue and company could be called up in September and make up much of the money that they "lost" when they signed for cheap. Dirty pool yes, but I don't see anything other than the 40 man roster preventing the Jays from doing so.

Well, specifically making any pre-draft or side deals like this is prohibited, I'm pretty sure, and if a team were caught I'm sure they would be punished. Not that that ever stopped anyone.

85bluejay - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#258054) #
If it comes down to Alford vs spreading the saved pool money on a slew of the projectable HS draftees , I'm leaning towards multiple HS draftees - I'm weary of a 2 sport guy whose first love is football - he takes the money, knowing he can always quit and go back to college football. I want the Jays to sign Alford but not go overboard  & miss out on the other HS talent they drafted
Anders - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#258055) #
Also, for what it's worth, Keith Law thought the Jays had one of the three best drafts in the AL, and wrote pretty effusively about it, even in relation to his other top teams.
greenfrog - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#258056) #
No doubt the Jays' first preference would be to sign Alford, but getting a comp pick next year could work out well for them too, as they could use the same aggressive strategy (college seniors in rounds 4-10) with the extra pick. They can simply spend the surplus slot money on the comp pick for Alford (#113) or on another early-round selection instead of on Smoral this year.

But who knows - maybe Alford gets signed somehow.
Beyonder - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#258057) #
Anders. The point you just made is another reason why it would be interesting to see the actual Rules prohibiting pre-arranged deals. I suspect the prohibition only covers actual agreeements, and not things like "If we drafted you and offered you ten grand, then called you up to double AA, would you sign?"

From what I can tell, no one in the media has seen the actual rules. Everyone is going off of BA's synopsis of the Rules.
PeterG - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#258058) #
How about a new thread on draft signings and rumours.
John Northey - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#258059) #
I wonder if, with all this gaming of the system this year, if we'll see a rule adjustment with a minimum amount that must be offered to each pick as well.  IE: cap of $1 mil means a basement of $500k or something.  So if a 4th round pick is allocated $500k then you must pay them $250k or more.  Then you'd see the seniors being drafted high and given a $5,000 bonus go away very quickly.
Forkball - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#258060) #

I think there is a more elegant solution to the draft: instead of having a one year bonus pool, replace it with a five year bonus pool

I read a month or two ago about Scott Boras proposing something like that.

hypobole - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#258061) #
I don't see why any special treatment was or would have had to be offered to these college seniors. These are guys who may have been drafted 20 rounds later if at all. I'm sure the Jays talked to a number of these guys and asked if they would accept what they were offering. If they said yes, they were picked and if they said no, they weren't. It's not like there is a no-tools college senior shortage.
China fan - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#258062) #
Why are people talking about September call-ups of first-year prospects? The Jays will be in a fierce battle for the playoffs in September! There won't be any room for marginal prospects, even with expanded rosters.
hypobole - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#258063) #
Also, I don't understand why so many are having problems with the Jays strategy of diverting the limited financial resources allowed by the CBA from players with limited skills and abilities toward those who do possess them.
Forkball - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#258064) #

I wonder if, with all this gaming of the system this year, if we'll see a rule adjustment

I'd be surprised if anything changes.  The goal is to keep overall bonuses down and that's being accomplished.  Cheap seniors should have been an obvious strategy to funnel money elsewhere.  If they didn't want money funneled around there would be hard slots. 

Not to mention, it'd have to be something agreed on with the union.

I find it interesting that some people think the current setup has issues.  The big issue should be that bonuses are severely restricted.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#258072) #

Toronto signed 17 High School and 5 J1 (1st year College) picks after the 10th Round.   Some will take the $100 K because they want to play baseball more than anything else.   Seniors taken 4th - 10th rounds (7) and after 27th (3) will sign for whatever is offered to play Professional Baseball, to fill roster openings.   Not signing means Independant Ball or a Job, like us.   The money saved in the 4th - 10th rounds (approximately $1.175 MM) was to be earmarked for signings after 10th round.  

The money saved from underslot signings in first 3 rounds was to sign as many of those first picks as possible.   Reportedly going overslot on Smoral and DeJong (approximately $1.25 MM) means less money for the tougher signs.  Only the unreported picks - Davis, Stroman and Nay - might offer enough savings (approximately $2.0 MM needed) to sign all the first 7 picks.

Even with the over-budget margin of 4.999% (approximately $440 K), there might not be enough to sign as many as we would prefer.  The meat of the draft is the 11th - 25th rounds: 6 LHP; 3 OF; 1 C; 1 2B and 3 SS.   Without them, this draft class is thin.   It is possible to sign everyone they've drafted by going over budget big-time, just don't sign Davis.   You will lose your first round picks in 2013 and 2014 for going over-budget, but you will receive the 18th pick in next year's draft.  The rest is just money.

  

hypobole - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#258079) #
"Toronto signed 17 High School and 5 J1 (1st year College) picks after the 10th Round."

Did you mean drafted rather than signed? And you're wrong about the meat of the draft, it's the 1st 3 rounds. 11th round on are lottery tickets. As far as who to sign, the chances of Alford signing at the expense of Davis are next to zero. And it would be ridiculous to go over budget enough to lose 1st round picks in 2013 and 14, and the chances of Jays doing that are exactly zero.
PeterG - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#258083) #
Agree with Hypobole
MatO - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#258084) #
It's quite possible that the Jays will come out of the draft with 6 of their top 7 picks signed, the 7 seniors and whoever decides to accept $100,000 from the 11th round on (which may be nobody).  I don't think that's gaming the system.  The parties who are screwed by the new system are the middling college juniors who might have recieved $300K for signing in the 4th round (eg. Casey Janssen) and the Drew Hutchinsons, KC Hobsons and other HSers who fall outside the top 3 rounds.  What'll be interesting is the 2015 draft when you figure all these unsigned HSers are now college juniors and the regular crop of HS players all are available at the same time.  You may see the draft strategy change again.
eldarion - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#258085) #
Agreed with MatO; I think what we witnessed this year was a strategy specific to this transition period during which many high school talents decide to forego turning pro for college...in a few years, when there's a glut of college talent available to be drafted, we may see the intended effect of these rule changes come into play, i.e. little 'gaming' of the system, slot selections reflecting talent level.

On another note, I noticed that many mock drafts had DJ Davis going in the compensatory round. If that was his expectation as well, it's possible that the Jays were able to satisfy his demands at a level substantially lower than the $2 million cap for the 17th selection. I'm just guessing, of course, but it wouldn't surprise me to eventually see Davis signing for a surprisingly low amount.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#258087) #

This site just wiped out 15 minutes of work.

Thank you, I meant drafted not signed.   I stand by my opinion - it is an alternative A.A. might choose.

PeterG - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#258088) #
I doubt that alternative would even be considered, let alone chosen for reasons that Hyperbole has already explained.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#258089) #
Rounds 1 - 3 represent the cream of Toronto's Draft.   Rounds 4 -10, 21, 25, 28, 31, 32, 35 and 39 are usually the roster filling Toronto does every year.  Rounds 11- 17 were last year's 4th -10th rounds, usually the meat of Toronto's draft.  Rounding out last years top 20 rounds are this year's 18th -27th rounds.   Did you forget them?   Toronto doesn't draft Alford in the 3rd round unless they think they can sign him, not with really good pitchers still available.
Original Ryan - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#258090) #
I stand by my opinion - it is an alternative A.A. might choose.

What you're suggesting is that the Blue Jays go overbudget to sign a bunch of guys who likely aren't as good as the players the team would lose -- D.J. Davis and the likely first round selections in 2013 and 2014. Why would the team have any interest in doing that? They'd be shooting themselves in the foot. To echo what the others have stated here, it isn't something that Anthopoulos will do.

whiterasta80 - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#258095) #

It would require a very... very good draft year to decide to forfeit our picks. I disagree with the notion that AA would never do choose to overspend and forfeit picks: there may very well be years where it is worth doing so.  This, however, is not one of those years.

Re: Alford. 

I think they looked at the value at that slot and decided that it was worth the risk even if there was only a 25% chance of signing him. He also gives them leverage against their other picks (i.e. "Alford has said he will take 1.9... if you turn this offer down we're going to him").

MatO - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#258096) #
If a Bryce Harper type were to fall to the Jays at pick 17 due to contract demands,  then yeah I could see AA going over the cap and losing a couple of draft picks would be justified.  Not going to happen this year.
mendocino - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#258098) #
Matt Smoral signed  around $2 mill.
whiterasta80 - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#258099) #

MatO: Exactly my point. Never say never.

 One possibility that I haven't heard discussed (or may have missed) is whether we can arrange a two-sport deal with Alford where he plays short season for us and then goes and plays football in the offseason. Since it isn't requiring him to give up his football dream I would think he'd probably accept a small dollar value. He's just getting a bunch of money to stay in shape in the summer. Its like getting booster money but without the risk.  Is there any reason this can't happen?

I'm wondering if maybe Alford wasn't drafted so that we can sign him above slot, but so we can sign him for below slot.

 

MatO - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#258101) #
I've read that Texas would like to do that with 15th rounder Jameis Winston who's going to Florida as a QB.  Essentially paying him $100,000 to play baseball when he has a chance in the summer.  He could still play football for the Seminoles.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#258105) #
With Smoral, Gonzales, De Jong supposedly signed, Blue Jays are approximately $1.25 MM overslot.   If Nay takes slot, Davis needs to be in at $750 K to balance the budget.   To sign Alford, needs $2.0 MM at a guess.   His slot ($424,400.00), plus a 4.999% over- budget allowance ($441,400.00), plus under-slot savings of 4th - 10th round picks (approximately $1.17 MM) get it done.   Any savings made on Stroman's signing permits the signing of extra picks after round 10.   That's maximizing value.
PeterG - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#258106) #
Jays are nowhere near that amount overslot. Picks 4-10 are saving close to 1.2 mi. Donahue signed for 5,000 and Azur for 1,000. No way that Davis signs for anywhere close to that. He will get 2 mil slot or very close to it. Might be some savings on Ney, however.
greenfrog - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#258108) #
From BA's draft chat today with Jim Callis:

Brad (Toronto ON): Very pleased to see my team take some risks with their draft. Do you foresee them having a lot of trouble signing anyone in particular?

Jim Callis: Alford. I don't think they can buy him away from Southern Miss. But the Jays don't have to in order to have a great draft.
metafour - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#258109) #
Toronto doesn't draft Alford in the 3rd round unless they think they can sign him, not with really good pitchers still available.

I'm sure the intention is to get some sort of deal done with Alford; but at the same time if it doesn't happen they will gladly take the compensation pick in next year's stronger draft.  I'm sure that is the mind-frame they took when they decided to draft him.  You have to remember that we drafted 6 guys in front of Alford, 3 of which are easy 1st round talents, and they are all 99% likely to sign.  Failing to sign Alford doesn't really hurt this draft; worst case scenario they use the money that they had saved up for Alford on a guy or two taken after the 11th round that wasn't expected to sign otherwise.  They aren't going to surrender future draft picks to get Alford signed, lets just put it that way.
sam - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#258112) #
Thanks for the links everyone. PeterG, where are you seeing that Donahue and Azor signed for that much?
scottt - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#258113) #
I wonder why they didn't just give each team a pool of money to spend over slot instead of this system.

Also, in the next years, there will be fewer compensation picks to go along more talented college players.

sam - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#258114) #
Just saw Azor. Sorry. I've been keeping a spreadsheet of the signings so far. Based on some of the rumours and reports so far, of the reported/rumoured signed picks the Jays are still $25,000 or so in the red.
PeterG - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#258115) #
If all of the 4-10 guys sign for 4 figures as has been suggested, they will be about 1.2 in the black. There are interviews with each of these players on Scout.com where each one says he was called a given such an amount and asked if he would accept it before he was drafted. The Donahue figure came out in a published interview yesterday. If we can assume that the others involved were similar, then the Jays should actually be a bit more than 1.2 mil in the black. I feel that Ney will also sign for less than slot.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, June 07 2012 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#258117) #

With Smoral, Gonzales, De Jong supposedly signed, Blue Jays are approximately $1.25 MM overslot. If Nay takes slot, Davis needs to be in at $750 K to balance the budget.

To make it simple, consider picks 17, 50, 58, 60 and 81, but no other picks.   This math is accurate.   I am not cosidering the saving of rounds 4 - 10.   The provision is that if Nay is not an over-slot signing, we are unlikely to get any savings here.    Balance the other signings, the Davis signing needs to save $1.25 MM to balance the Budget.

To sign Alford, needs $2.0 MM at a guess. His slot ($424,400.00), plus a 4.999% over- budget allowance ($441,400.00), plus under-slot savings of 4th - 10th round picks (approximately $1.17 MM) get it done.

To make it simple, consider picks 112, 145, 175, 205, 235, 265, 295 and 325, but no other picks.   This math is accurate,   Alford's slot amount, plus the possible over-budget amount (but not losing a draft pick), plus savings for round 4 - 10 signings meet the $2.0 MM figure.

Any savings made on Stroman's signing permits the signing of extra picks after round 10. That's maximizing value.

To make it simple, consider picks 22, 355 and above, but no other picks.   If you don't go over-slot in signing Stroman, you'll need to be under-slot.   Any picks after the 10th round, not willing to sign for the $100 K, might appreciate those savings.   This is just showing best-case scenario, I'd be surprised if it works.   Of course I won't be the only surprised. 

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