So, What Next?

Friday, June 15 2012 @ 02:40 PM EDT

Contributed by: Anders

The Phillies are in town for the weekend, but due to injury and scheduling Toronto only gets one of Philadelphia's big 3, Cliff Lee. Lee is winless in 10 starts despite ERAs and FIPs right around 3; though the Phillies offense really isn't that bad for the NL, it's no longer the juggernaut it once was. Philadelphia and Toronto are actually in pretty similar positions as we speak, albeit on differing sides of a curve. Toronto's been a game better, but both teams are hanging around just under .500, with positive run differentials, and yet both reside in the cellars of their tough respective divisions, 6.5 and 9 games out with lots of teams to catch. At some point in the next month both teams are going to have to decide whether they should go for it, whether they're going to just hold on, or whether to pack it in for the season. I say that both teams are at differing points in the curve because for Toronto this was supposed to be their first season on the cusp of something; they have a young team, plenty of talent in the minors, and look to be on the way up. The Phillies are the mirror image of this. This year or the next might be the last in which they can realistically hold things together. They're old, and in the offseason they're going to have to pay Cole Hamels $20 million a year, at least. Much of their young talent has been used up bringing players like Hunter Pence or Roy Halladay over, and these guys are only getting older.

So, what to do?

Well, I don't care quite as much about the Phillies - yes, they're getting Utley and Howard and Halladay back, but by that point they might be 14 games out. Feel free to talk amongst yourselves. No, it seems like a good time to look beyond this series for the Jays a bit. Toronto is, in all likelihood, not going to make the playoffs this year. Yes it's still early, but they're in a tough division, have lost a lot of their starting pitching, and probably aren't going to do anything to replace it.

We're right around the time when people start talking about which teams are going to be buyers, sellers or holders. From what I've seen, Toronto so far has been ending up in the "too soon to tell" column's, which I think is probably not the case. If anything, the Jays will probably be buyers and sellers. Due to the expanded playoffs and relative parity (only 4 teams are 10+ games out in their divisions, and the biggest division lead right now is 4), few teams are really out of it; overall it will likely be a slow trade season, at least to start. Probably not in Toronto though. Since the beginning of Alex Anthopoulos' tenure, the Jays have been about as active as any club in baseball, trading for Brandon Morrow, Brett Lawrie, Sergio Santos, Mike Napoli and subsequently Frank Francisco. They've also made in season trades each of the last two years, acquiring Yunel Escobar and then Colby Rasmus and Kelly Johnson in mid-season. There's a pretty common thread to all these trades though, which is buying low on undervalued assets and trying to acquire as much value as the team could. Just about the last thing I expect the club to do is to trade prospects to acquire proven veterans who will be gone at the end of the year, especially now that there's limited draft pick compensation.

So what is Toronto going to do? Or what should Toronto do? First of all, it wouldn't surprise me if Toronto dealt non-core talent. I doubt if anyone is looking for a catcher with an OBP below .275, but let's just say one way or another I wouldn't be buying an Arencibia shirt any time soon. Edwin Encarnacion's played well, and Kelly Johnson's been awful since around the time he missed a couple of days, and one or two of those guys could go. At the same time, it wouldn't surprise me if the Jays spent some of their precious talent to try to get someone like an Eric Hosmer (not that the Royals would trade him) or Logan Morrison or Yonder Alonso, or even a Josh Johnson.

No General Manager would ever come out and say it, but if I had to guess, I think the Blue Jays were hoping for the best in 2012 but were willing to let things take their course. This has been something that every Jays fan has been saying for years, but next year is the year. The club is young and has a lot of talent, both in Toronto and Las Vegas, and I almost certain that they aren't willing to part with anyone of huge significance to improve the team for this year only. Of all the trades Toronto has made, the only guys they've given up that you would really like to see in a Jays uniform today are probably Edwin Jackson, Mike Napoli and Shaun Marcum, and two of those guys were acquired and shipped out in what were essentially three way trades; the Napoli deal didn't work out, but Jackson was a free agent at the end of the year and the Jays could have signed him if they wanted to; they still have Rasmus, so that's a check in my book. Meanwhile Marcum brought back Brett Lawrie, and I don't think any fans here are screaming for a do over. Most of the other guys the Jays traded will or have ended up in middle relief; ironically the Jays could probably use them right now, but I think they're pretty happy with how things turned out. In any case, the point is that the chances of trading a Travis d'Arnaud or an Anthony Gose are, I think, pretty slim, unless someone good is coming back.

So while the next six weeks could be quiet, other than the AAA-MLB shuttle, I would be surprised if Toronto didn't make a trade before the deadline. I'd be equally surprised if they brought back someone who wasn't under 26 or had several years on their contract left. 2012, whether by design or happenstance, isn't going to be the Jays year, and I think they know this, so any moves will be with an eye towards the future, rightly or wrongly. The club has a lot of options, and I really have no idea what's going to happen. The only thing I'd bet on is that nobody is going to even have an inkling about anything that's going to happen before it actually happens.

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