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The Toronto Blue Jays look to beat this man to start off the series at Fenway Park.

Boston Red Sox hurler Felix Doubront gets some work in from the bullpen at Target Field April 23



Tonight:  RHP Felix Doubront (8-3, 4.30) vs. RHP Henderson Alvarez (3-6, 4.31) at 7:10 p.m.

FanGraphs.com says Doubront throws fastballs, cutters, changeups and curveballs.  His fastball averages 92 miles per hour, his cutter is around 87 MPH, his changeup is about 85 and he drops hooks around 76.  He beat the Jays in Toronto back on June 2 and is 2-0 lifetime against the Blue Jays.  Doubront is 5-1 with a 3.19 earned run average on the road but at Fenway, his ERA jumps to 5.59 with a 3-2 mark. Kelly Johnson is 3-for-7 lifetime versus Doubront while Jose Bautista is 2-for-9 with two home runs.  Jeff Mathis is 2-for-3 with a HR while Brett Lawrie and Edwin Encarnacion are each 2-for-6.  Rajai Davis is 0-for-5.

Tuesday:  RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-2, 6.00) vs. LHP Aaron Laffey (0-0, 3.00) at 7:10 p.m.

Dice-K's vast repertoire of pitches includes a fastball around 91 MPH, a cutter averaging 89, a slider and changeup hovering around 80 with the odd splitter around 86. He's 7-1 lifetime against the Jays, including a perfect 4-0 at Fenway.  Omar Vizquel owns Matsuzaka to the tune of 2-for-3 for a .667 average.  Yunel Escobar is 2-for-10, Bautista is 2-for-16 and Adam Lind is 3-for-20.

Wednesday : LHP Jon Lester (4-5, 4.48) versus LHP Ricky Romero (8-1, 4.34) at 1:35 p.m.

This is a rematch of the April 11 matinee in which Romero outdueled Lester at the Dome.  Lester throws the gas at 92 and combines that with a cutter around 90.  His changeup clocks in around 86 and his curve is about 76.  He's 10-5 lifetime versus Toronto with a 3.08 ERA.  Vizquel mashes Lester at a .500 clip in his two career at-bats.  Escobar is 6-for-19 and Jeff Mathis is 2-for-7.  On the flip side, Bautista is 8-for-42, Johnson is 0-for-8 and Brett Lawrie is 0-for-5.

Notes:  The Jays are 3-3 against Boston this season with all six games played in Toronto...Brent Lillibridge will wear #23 for the Red Sox after coming to Boston in a trade for Kevin Youkilis.  Righty Zach Stewart, the former Jay, is to report to AAA Pawtucket.



The Jays won't be facing Kevin Youkilis, batting here against the Twins earlier this season, but he's still in the American League as the color of his Sox changes from Red to White.

Boston Red Sox - June 25-27 | 112 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
greenfrog - Monday, June 25 2012 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#259317) #
I think leaving Alvarez in after his apparent back injury (which did not look trivial) was incredibly dumb, as was letting him pitch into the 6th inning. It looked as though he may have injured his elbow - I wouldn't be surprised if this was the result of compensating for the injury sustained earlier in the game.
uglyone - Monday, June 25 2012 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#259318) #
Bautista murdered that ball. murdered it.
dan gordon - Monday, June 25 2012 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#259319) #
They confirmed that he left with elbow soreness.  They were pointing to the inside of his elbow, which is where the ulnar collateral ligament is - you know, the Tommy John one.  Let's hope it's not a tear, or we could be down to one of the original 5.
Chuck - Monday, June 25 2012 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#259321) #
I wonder what Tomo Ohka is up to.
BlueJayWay - Monday, June 25 2012 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#259322) #
Scott Richmond recalled.
sam - Monday, June 25 2012 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#259323) #
I noticed that Brett Lawrie and Colby Rasmus did a little handshake thing at home plate after Rasmus' homerun today. Anyone else see this? Maybe the unspoken rules of the game have changed, but I got to think that there might be some who don't take to kindly to that display on the field in front of the pitcher.

For the dugout that stuff, no?

I think it's different than the muscle flew Bautista and co. do, no?
eudaimon - Monday, June 25 2012 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#259324) #
Time to give Jamie Moyer a shot. I feel like he can still pitch. (Colorado seems like the worst place for a guy like him). Either way it'd be a fun ride. Scott Richmond has a 5.5 ERA in AAA, so I'm not sure how good he'll do in the bigs.
Beyonder - Monday, June 25 2012 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#259326) #
I saw that Sam. Lawrie looked really into it. Colby, not so much. I'm pretty sure that's Colby's first handshake dance.
Thomas - Monday, June 25 2012 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#259327) #
Tonight's very difficult trivia question: Who was the major league batter Scott Richmond faced last year in his only appearance for the Jays?

A giant no prize to anyone who gets this without looking it up.
John Northey - Monday, June 25 2012 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#259329) #
Romero and Drabek both are likely to get a talking to from the team over cursing they did on Twitter over fan comments about Romero being pr-scheduled for Tommy John surgery. Good old gallows humour but sure can understand why they didn't see any humour in it.
92-93 - Monday, June 25 2012 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#259330) #
I find the muscle flexing to be far worse than the Lawrie/Colby handshake if you're worried about showing up the other team.
PeteMoss - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 12:03 AM EDT (#259332) #
They've done this before... no one cares. Ortiz does his little point to the sky routine... Bautista/EE do their flexing thing. Who cares.
Nolan - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 12:08 AM EDT (#259334) #
I have seen Colby and Brett do that handshake at least one other time. Against the Martins I believe it was; and for the record, I thought Rasmus was having fun with it.
85bluejay - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 12:21 AM EDT (#259335) #
According to MLB Trade Rumors, there's a report saying the Jays have signed Jaime Moyer
acepinball - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 12:27 AM EDT (#259336) #
Rasmus and Lawrie have had a few opportunities lately to high five after the former jacks a bomb. Good to see two of the younger guys having a good time. Although I'm sure the time will come when Lawrie saves his cheerleading for a more appropriate time.
electric carrot - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 12:30 AM EDT (#259337) #
Hey look, you can fit the AL East neatly on top of the AL Central without changing any of the positions around.  It's official, last place in the East is equal to first place in the Central.  I think Neil Young said "I've been first and last ... " but I don't think he meant at the same time.



sam - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 12:49 AM EDT (#259340) #
Travis d'Arnaud hurt himself tonight as well, as per Davidi.
TamRa - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 12:49 AM EDT (#259341) #
Yup. Moyer arrives in Vegas. He could probably do as well as Richmond tomorrow night.

Magpie - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 01:14 AM EDT (#259342) #
I don't think Scott Richmond is a major league starter, but I certainly think there should be a role in the bullpen for him. He's essentially a very tall Octavio Dotel - he eats right handed batters for lunch, but the lefties have him for dessert. He's a ROOGY! His career MLB splits: vs RHB .213/.252/.367, vs LHB .313/.388/.579.

Unfortunately, I doubt this organization is going to actually put him into the role he's best suited for, which will probably cost him several million dollars.
TamRa - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 01:39 AM EDT (#259343) #
Here's a thought, totally out there for the obvious reason to be stated at the end of this post, but still:

Jeff Passan's comment on potential trade targets has this comment about the situation with Cole Hamels:

"He wants CC Sabathia money. The Phillies are buried underneath the weight of $105 million owed to Ryan Howard, $87.5 million to Cliff Lee, $39 million to Jonathan Papelbon, $22 million to Jimmy Rollins, $20 million to Roy Halladay and $15.28 million to Chase Utley. That's almost $290 million owed to players all 31 and older."

So...

1. Would the Phillies be willing to trade Doc in order to free up money to extend Hamels?

2. would the Jays be willing to add a potential $50+ commitment to bring Doc back assuming they thought they had a legitimate window of opportunity right now in the next 3 seasons ('12-'14)

3. Assuming the answer to both of the above is yes, can they make such a deal without giving up players they consider core, particularly d'Arnaud?

For instance, Say Gose (whome the Phillies hated to lose) and Syndergaard (replacing the value of Drabek) and say Jimenez or Perez? They would hate to lose Gose but should be able to handle the other two easily enough and I'm guessing the Phillies wouldn't make the deal without getting one of Gose or d'Arnaud back.

4. would the Jays consider it worth that kid of price to bring him back, given age and possible decline in effectiveness over the contract terms? also, Would they feel comfortable with the possible effect on clubhouse chemistry given the comments after Doc left about everyone relaxing? Can it be assumed that Doc would no-longer be seen as the god-like being he was before and that would not be an issue?

5. Assuming we've gotten this far, would Doc waive his airtight no-trade clause to come home? Would he now see the Jays as more likely to put him in the post-season than the Phillies going forward?

whatever reality says, there's a little alternate universe playing out in my mind in which the answer to all these is: YES!!
katman - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 02:55 AM EDT (#259344) #
I like the Richmond as ROOGY idea, but he may be shanghaied into the starting rotation first. At least until Moyer is deemed ready.

Moyer does seem like the perfect guy for Cecil to learn from. Until recently, I'd have said that it doesn't matter, Cecil won't be here long term. But the way the rotation is shaping up for 2013, the tutelage may not be a bad idea. Ugh. This pain may well last beyond the next couple of months.

Hope AA has some magic left under that hat. My take: sell anyone you think you have to. I see Oliver and EE both moving by the trade deadline, and maybe KJ too.

China fan - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 03:01 AM EDT (#259345) #
"....Unfortunately, I doubt this organization is going to actually put him into the role he's best suited for...."

No fear, Magpie. Farrell explicitly stated that Richmond was called up to be a multi-inning reliever. He was promoted to replace Coello, and I'm sure that decision was made before the Alvarez injury. So far, Farrell is saying that Alvarez might not miss a start. And if he does miss a start, I'm sure the Jays won't decide on his replacement until Friday -- by which time the situation could have totally changed again, with new acquisitions or whatever.

Farrell has been obsessively hoarding Villanueva and Perez as long as possible, and now he's got Richmond as another long-relief option. He's clearly terrified of the scenario where Laffey or Chavez or Cecil gets hammered in the 1st inning and he needs another 8-inning performance from his bullpen.

But with Villanueva and Perez now so fully rested (5 or 6 days for each), it might finally be time to give them a start. They're starting to become better options than Chavez or Laffey.
TamRa - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 03:11 AM EDT (#259346) #
"I see Oliver and EE both moving by the trade deadline, and maybe KJ too."

the Jays have an option on Oliver next year - my bet is he doesn't go anywhere.

China fan - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 03:15 AM EDT (#259348) #
As for Jamie Moyer: there's no need to get agitated by the acquisition, he might be merely the next Vladimir Guerrero, brought in for a look. But, for what it's worth, he's pitched 16 innings in AAA this season (for Baltimore's affiliate) and recorded 16 strikeouts -- and zero walks. Maybe some help for the bullpen?
85bluejay - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 08:05 AM EDT (#259352) #

On the potential to acquire Doc - NO!NO!NO! - I've been one of AA's biggest supporters but if he makes that deal, I would have lost a lot of faith - I'm not giving up those type of assets both in prospects & finances for a guy in his declining phase -and it would take away from my pleasure when the Jays are in the World Series & having Halladay at home never having made the trip  -Anyways , I'm confident that AA won't make such a trade.

someone mentioned it earlier and I support that approach - it's time to batten down the hatches,don't make any trades where you overpay and take stock at the allstar break - if we become sellers, the jays have some quality pieces and it's a seller's market.

Moe - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#259354) #
For instance, Say Gose (whome the Phillies hated to lose) and Syndergaard (replacing the value of Drabek) and say Jimenez or Perez? They would hate to lose Gose but should be able to handle the other two easily enough and I'm guessing the Phillies wouldn't make the deal without getting one of Gose or d'Arnaud back.

I don't mind getting back Roy but not for the same assets the Phillies gave the Jays. He is older and seems to have entered his decline phase. Also, remember the Phillies did not give up Gose for him but the lower ranked Taylor. I would think that you give up at most one high ranked advanced guy or some guys further away. To take the above package, it's either Gose or Syndergaard, Jimenez and say Knecht. And given that Roy is currently injured and did not pitch that well before he hit the DL, that's a pretty risky trade.



Beyonder - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#259362) #
I don't put Gose in remotely the same category of prospect as D'Arnaud. Seems we've been talking about his tools for years, but he's never been able to put the bat on the ball with any consistency. Lost in all the talk about the raft of prospects in Vegas is the fact that Gose is actually having a very disappointing year. Even the flash of power that he showed last year seems to have dissapeared. If I had to trade one of our big-name guys, he's absolutely the one to go.
TamRa - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#259364) #
"I would think that you give up at most one high ranked advanced guy or some guys further away. To take the above package, it's either Gose or Syndergaard, Jimenez and say Knecht."

But that is exactly what I did - Gose is highly ranked, Syndergaard is further away.

Gose is a guy we could spare in the right deal because Rasmus has staked his claim, apparently, and Marisnick should be ready to follow him if and when he leaves. Yes that's a gamble on Jake's development but counting on either prospect is a gamble.

Offering them a catcher that is further away also works in that we would presumably give d'Arnaud a long leash and they have an established guy. If youy were getting a guy who was 2 years or 3 away, then that would be a proper timeline.

I do agree with the comment that we should be giving less than what the Phillies gave us given relative age and ability which is why I was trying to imply that this was not underpaying but perhaps too rich.

But trading one of the young pitchers (and I'd much rather give them Wojo as Noah) will not kill us and the catching depth is well above average. Basically it's Gose and a couple of guys we can spare, but which would be more valuable to them than to us.

And whatever WE think of Gose, judging by reports the Phillies love him.
Kasi - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#259365) #
Vegas is a hard place to hit home runs in because the ball park is so huge. I think Gose is doing quite well, dropping his K rate slightly while still doing what he does best, getting on base and stealing bases, all the while playing top defense.

Anyone have any info on what D'Arnaud got injured with last night? It was sliding into second to break up a DP. Hope he didn't do anything dumb like slide head first and get his hands injured.
TamRa - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#259366) #
RE Moyer.

Don't know about the rest of y'all but I'd be more confident tonight if Moyer were the starter than I am with Laffey. obviously both are shakey options but still, if that's my only two options then I go with the old guy without much hesitation.
whiterasta80 - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#259367) #

I would also prefer to just throw Moyer into the rotation.  People are talking like a 5.70 ERA and 5 1/3 innings per start is a bad thing.  As sad as this is, I would take that from our 5th starter in a heartbeat right now.

BlueJayWay - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#259368) #
So right now, Blue Jays are 38-35 and tied for last in the division.  The White Sox are 38-35 and lead the Central.

Balanced sched, anyone?  No divisions?  Would be nice....

whiterasta80 - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#259369) #

When you think about it, it is actually pretty amazing that we are 3 games over .500.  We've had just a ridiculous amount of injuries both in the rotation and the bullpen, Bautista was useless for a month, ditto Rasmus. Escobar has been below par all year and you could argue that KJ and JPA have been too (less surprising). LF and 1B were absolutely brutal and just when we start getting average production out of our 1B we inexplicably decide to give that up.  That's not even addressing the issue of John Farrell's management which I truly believe has cost us at least 4 games. 

Actually, come to think of it, how on earth are we not dead last in MLB? 

eldarion - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#259370) #
I don't Gose is having a disappointing year by any metric. His OPS is up again for the fourth consecutive year - after making significant leaps to A+, AA and now AAA - and he's hovering around.800. I think that's terrific for a speedster centre fielder. Obviously, the Vegas factor comes into a play when looking at his numbers but he is striking out a reduced rate as compared to last year which is a good sign. He's leading the PCL in stolen bases and, I believe, in triples. And...he's doing all of this at the ripe old age of 21 with excellent defence, by all reports. Remember: D'arnaud is 23. He has a couple of years of growth and development on Gose. I'd be extremely leery of giving up on Gose. I'm surprised at how many people doubt him given his exploits in the minor leagues at such a young age.
eldarion - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#259371) #
Agreed, whiterasta80. It's pretty remarkable the Jays are where they're at.
whiterasta80 - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#259373) #

Re: Gose.  I think this whole comparison to Rasmus at the same age thing has had an effect.  The thing is, Rasmus was freaking incredible at virtually every step of his development- almost Trout-ian. 

Gose is still a very good prospect who is doing everything right, he's improved every season he's been in the minors and I expect that to continue.  I wouldn't move him for anything less than a 1B type pitcher.

Beyonder - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#259374) #
I haven't forgotten Gose's age. An 800 OPS puts him firmly in the bottom half of qualifying batters in the PCL. It is not terrific by any stretch. His extra-base power has evaporated. He's actually on pace to steal fewer bases than last year.

I'm not saying give up on him. I'm just saying at this point we should not be remotely surprised if his tools never materialize. I will be shocked if D'Arnaud's don't.

If other teams are high on Gose, he would be the first guy I would deal. With travis we don't have a pressing need in Left, and we have a guy two levels down who is likely a better prospect in Marisnick.
Beyonder - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#259376) #
...and he leads the league in strikeouts.

So much for his revamped third strike approach.
whiterasta80 - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#259377) #

Gose's total steals are down... His success rate is up, presumably against catchers with better arms. I will take that!

As for his power?  An .800 OPS is above league average for a guy whose calling card isn't power.  And while he isn't hitting as many HRs, he is well on his way to having more extra base hits this season. He doesn't have to hit 20 HRs to have value to a team. 

Beyonder when you say you "haven't forgotten about age", but then state that Marisnick is a better prospect.

Given that they have never been at the same level at the same age I'm not sure it is fair to compare Marisnick and Gose.  Regardless, until someone shows success at AA, I tend to trust the more advanced prospect. 

I agree that Rasmus' emergance coupled with Snider mean that we could move Gose in the right package and not compromise our team, and I certainly wouldn't advocate trading Rasmus simply because he looks ready. But I would personally be surprised if Gose didn't end up being a valuable major leaguer (Rajai Davis in a worst case).  

Lylemcr - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#259378) #
After watching Alvarez last night, I really wonder if Moyer or Richmond wouldn't be better long term.  The kid has to go down to AA to work on something and it is working for him here.  He will be back in a month or two, but send him down to get his head straightened out.  They have to think long term.
Hodgie - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#259379) #
Lost in all the talk about the raft of prospects in Vegas is the fact that Gose is actually having a very disappointing year.

Based on what criteria, that he isn't Mike Trout or Wil Myers? This season Gose has done the following:

  • maintained his good walk rate (10.5%)
  • cut down his strikeouts (21.3%)
  • leads the league in stolen bases (29) while doing so successfully at a 85% clip
  • Compiled a 117 wRC+ despite his horrendous April (.583 OPS)
He has done this despite being only 21 years old and the second youngest player in the PCL. If that is disappointing the bar is being set WAY to high.

Beyonder - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#259381) #
Could we come up with a better example of confirmation bias and overvaluing our own prospects if we tried?

1. Re: an 800 ops being good for guys for whom power is not their calling card. You will have to look pretty hard to come up with a subset of batters in the PCL for whom an 800 ops is good --power or no power.

2. Re: Cutting down on strikeouts. Perhaps, but he still has a stranglehold on the league lead by a good margin. Again, for a guy who has very little power.

3. Stolen bases. Fine, but again, fewer than last year.

4. Batting average below the league average. For a guy with Gose's speed, it is not acceptable to bat .290 in the PCL.

All in all, this season has not been a step forward for Gose. I call that a dissappointment.

Again, I'm not ready to give up on him. But you have to squint pretty hard to see this season as a successful one.
Gerry - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#259382) #
I am not going to belabour the point but I do see this year as a step forward for Gose.  If you asked me to pick Rasmus or Gose today I would pick Rasmus but that doesn't negate the progress Gose has made this year.
Hodgie - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#259383) #
The fact that Gose leads in total strikeouts is largely a function of his leading the league in plate appearances by a comfortable margin. His current K% rate ranks 13th in the league and he is closer to 53rd place than he is 1st amongst qualified batters.
Oceanbound - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#259384) #
Gose is having such a disappointing season that he got selected for the Futures Game.
John Northey - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#259385) #
So, at 21 Gose...
A) sets personal bests in batting average (29 points), OBP (24 points), and Slg% (12 points)
B) does this while being the 2nd youngest in his league (AAA PCL)
C) steals at the best percentage success rate of his career as well
D) walks at his 2nd best rate (barely - 1 tenth of a percentage point from his peak)

I have serious trouble pushing that down as a 'disappointment' even in the crazy PCL environment.

Btw, in the PCL the averages are 279/345/432 and Gose is hitting 291/373/427.  Vegas as a team is hitting 309/377/471, so that must be what you were comparing him to Beyonder, not the league. 

uglyone - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#259386) #
I agree that Gose's overall performance this year is not quite up to what he did last year....but it's actually quite close, and after his horrific April this year it's quite encouraging that he's already coming close to last year's performance....and improving in a couple of key areas.

First off, I always like using wRC+ - it adjusts hitting numbers to league average, includes baserunning, and includes park effects.

Last year was a breakthrough year for Gose offensively, and this year he's coming close to that level again.

2009 (A): 106wRC+
2010 (A+): 103wRC+
2011 (AA): 124wRC+
2012 (AAA): 117wRC+

And again, after his disturbingly awful April, the fact that he's already back near last year's level by mid June is actually pretty impressive.

he also is showing a legit improvement in strikeouts, without suffering any loss in walks.

2009 (A): 6.1bb%, 19.2k%
2010 (A+): 7.8bb%, 23.0k%
2011 (AA): 10.6bb%, 26.2k%
2012 (AAA): 10.5bb%, 21.3k%

After improving steadily in the walks department as a minor leaguer, he's maintained his very good 10+ bb% this year. That's very encouraging. He's also cut his Ks significantly - from a very worrying 25+ % last year, to a much more manageable ~20% this year. That is a big improvement in one of his weakest areas.

His stolen bases are down slightly, but that's after a mysterious black out in steal attempts the last month or so, which might have been related to injuries. He's back on track stealing 5 bases in his last 3 games, though.

Also encouraging that when it comes to the Vegas effect, Gose isn't beneffitting from it. His .874 road ops is worlds better than his .736 vegas ops.

What is becoming clearer this year, though, is that Gose has a ton of work to do vs. LHP. .874ops v. RHP is great, .526ops v. LHP is horrendous.

I'd say his overall performance this year is comparable to last year's breakthrough year, with a key improvement in his weakest area (Ks).
uglyone - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#259387) #
"I don't put Gose in remotely the same category of prospect as D'Arnaud. Seems we've been talking about his tools for years, but he's never been able to put the bat on the ball with any consistency."

Age 18

D'Arnaud (Rk): 151pa, 2.6bb%, 15.2k%, .259babip, .241/.278/.348/.626, .294woba, 77wRC+
A.Gose (A): 572pa, 6.1bb%, 19.2k%, .324babip, .259/.323/.353/.676, .331woba, 106wRC+

Age 19

D'Arnaud (A-/A): 267pa, 8.6bb%, 14.6k%, .340babip, .305/.367/.464/.831, .374woba, 133wRC+
A.Gose (A+): 574pa, 7.8bb%, 23.0k%, .339babip, .262/.332/.393/.725, .326woba, 103wRC+

Age 20

D'Arnaud (A): 540pa, 7.6bb%, 13.9k%, .273babip, .255/.319/.419/.738, .336woba, 109wRC+
A.Gose (AA): 587pa, 10.6bb%, 26.2k%, .332babip, .253/.349/.415/.765, .364woba, 124wRC+

Age 21

D'Arnaud (A+): 292pa, 6.8bb%, 21.6k%, .312babip, .259/.315/.411/.726, .332woba, 107wRC+
A.Gose (AAA): 362pa, 10.5bb%, 21.3k%, .376babip, .291/.373/.427/.800, .369woba, 117wRC+
Anders - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#259388) #
2. Re: Cutting down on strikeouts. Perhaps, but he still has a stranglehold on the league lead by a good margin. Again, for a guy who has very little power.

This information is a) somewhat meaningless without context, and b) not true.

I don't know how hard this is people. Gose does not in fact lead the PCL in strikeouts - he's second, by a wide margin, 30 behind the #1, who does strike out a lot. Moreover, Gose is first in the PCL in plate appearances. His K%, which he has cut down, doesn't even place him in the top 20. Geez.

http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=4&qual=y&type=0&season=2012&team=0&players=0&sort=15,d

jjdynomite - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#259389) #
Gose's value is one thing, but I don't understand the logic of trading top prospects for a 35-year-old who makes $20 million/season and had an ERA+ of 99 in 11 starts... and then fell to a 2+ month injury.

I love Doc, but this isn't the NHL/NBA where average teams are playoff-bound. The only core Jay at his peak/near decline is Joey Bats; everyone else has room for improvement (I don't count Kelly Johnson as a core piece).

If AA has license to blow money on past-their-prime players, it truly has to be the FA route, not mortgaging the farm.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#259391) #
Gose K% looking - 2011 - 8.8%, 2012 - 7.7%
Gose K% swinging - 2011 - 17.6%, 2012 - 13.6%

Ryan Day - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#259392) #
Comparing Gose to D'arnaud makes you wonder why Gose is in AAA to begin with. D'arnaud's moved up conservatively, about what you'd expect for guy with talent but (for the first few years) without great results.

But after 11 games in rookie ball, the Phillies started Gose in full-season A-ball at 18. He wasn't very good, but they moved him to A+, where he also wasn't very good. It's all very nice to be "good for your age", but Gose has always been very raw and unpolished, yet pushed quite aggressively.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#259393) #
The players currently on the Jays' roster with experience against Dice-K have hit a combined 141/168/217 against him in 95 PA (thanks, BRef).

The Red Sox players who have faced Laffey have hit a combined 306/382/408 against him.

Still, games aren't won or lost on paper. And Dice-K has never faced Rasmus or Lawrie...
BalzacChieftain - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#259394) #
It may make good sense to promote a player quickly who has plus defense and plus speed, as those tools peak at a younger age than others. For the ML club to realize the value of those tools, promotion generally needs to be swift. As those tools begin to decline, hopefully the value of the hitting tool increases.
whiterasta80 - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#259395) #
Yes and No Balzac. It is not when those tools begin to decline that is relevant but whether or not those tools decline after his controllable years. Carl Crawford comes to mind as an example, the Rays got out at just the right time.  There isn't a dire need to promote Gose this season, we just have to make sure we don't keep him down there until 27.
BalzacChieftain - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#259397) #

Fair points. I, for one, am not encouraging an immediate call-upto the bigs, but am rather not in disagreement with the plan the organization(s) has had for him thus far concerning his agressive rise through the minors.

whiterasta80 - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#259402) #
I would agree with that assessment.  Its not like he's played so poorly as to merit a demotion at any stop in the minors.
Beyonder - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#259403) #
Yes uglyone. Precisely. And if you recall, D'Arnaud was not regarded as an elite prospect until his age 22 year, when he blossomed. Gose may do that as well, but that is certainly not the most likely progression. At least prior to his breakout last year D'Arnaud had flashed an above average hit tool. At no level and at no time has Gose done this.

We have seen some small improvements in his walk and strikeout rate. His power has evaporated. For Las Vegas, his batting average is mediocre (as it has always been). We can keep bringing his age up but at some point you need to see some actual production.

My criticism of Gose is actually pretty mild (dissappointing year so far -- not the prospect D'Arnaud is). The fact that it has prompted such a viceral response might be an indication that we're having trouble distinguishing objective assessment from wishful thinking.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#259406) #
Not sure I can agree.

His wRC+ has shown him to be a well above average player in both AA and AAA, even as one of the youngest players in the league at each levl. And this while being a premium defensive players at a premium position.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#259408) #
If you're slapping ratings on tools based on minor league stat lines you're doing it VERY wrong.
Beyonder - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#259409) #
I'm not rating his tools. His tools are fantastic. I'm saying at some point he has to put it together before he can be considered in the same breath as D'arnaud. He hasn't so far.
China fan - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#259410) #
".....The fact that it has prompted such a viceral response might be an indication that we're having trouble distinguishing objective assessment from wishful thinking...."

Or it might just be an indication that people are annoyed that you're stubbornly persisting with an inaccurate argument.

I'm just an observer in this debate, I didn't begin with any preconceptions, but I have to say that most of your criticisms of Gose have been effectively refuted in this thread.

In your last post, you've reduced your argument to just two remaining points: a) you say that Gose has a "mediocre" batting average. But it's generally agreed that batting average is a pretty outdated metric for assessing a batter. And even if it's not an archaic metric, Gose has a .291 BA, which doesn't seem mediocre. Your other point is that, b) his "power has evaporated." But in fact his SLG has increased from .353 to .427 since 2009, which hardly seems to be evidence of evaporation.

I don't think you're going to win this debate.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#259411) #
Hopefully it's more like a conversation than a debate, and conversations don't have winners or losers.  Personally, I wouldn't describe Gose's 2012 so far as either a significant step forward or backward.  It certainly would have been open to the club to let him repeat double A at age 21 for a few months to see if he could dominate the league.  They decided against it, presumably because of his defensive talents. 
Beyonder - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#259412) #
"stubbornly persisting with an inaccurate argument."

I think you've really got to pull that one out sparingly China Fan. I haven't been posting on the board as long as many here, and my opinions are certainly not as sophisticated as many of you, but they are all held in good faith. I have been wrong many times on this board, and admitted it every time when called on it.

In this case, my position is pretty mild one. Gose is having a dissapointing year, and he's not close to the same calibre of propsect D'Arnaud is. Disagree, please. But these are issues about which reasonable people can disagree without being stubborn. This is a Blue Jays Prospect fan site. I don't think I am the first person to suggest that we might be getting a little bit carried away in our enthusiasm sometimes.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#259414) #

I'm not rating his tools. His tools are fantastic.

That's exactly what you just did. At least prior to his breakout last year D'Arnaud had flashed an above average hit tool. At no level and at no time has Gose done this. 

So I'll repeat - "If you're slapping ratings on tools based on minor league stat lines you're doing it VERY wrong."

Magpie - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#259429) #
Gose is having a disappointing year

That may or may not be true, but even if it is - so what? He's 21 years old. This expectation that kids will take a smooth steady path to their ultimate destiny is just weird. Devon White himself didn't become Devon White until he was 28, there were many backward steps along the way. Don't sweat it. Patience...
hypobole - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#259431) #
Gose is having a disappointing year

All depends what your expectations were. I figured his home runs would go down without the short porch in right, and his doubles would go up with Vegas' spacious outfield and high fences. I'm actually pleasantly surprised by his hitting, but my expectations were different. We both are correct re: Gose's results vs our personal expectations.
CSHunt68 - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#259436) #
"Could we come up with a better example of confirmation bias and ...valuing our own prospects if we tried?"
I agree wholeheartedly, beyonder. Buuuuuut, probably not in the way you meant.
Your main arguments in this line of discourse have all been refuted. Best to move on.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#259437) #
I wonder if Aaron will have the last laff.
Beyonder - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#259438) #
Seriously. Which of my arguments have been refuted? The one where I say the Gose has been disappointing, or the one where I say D'arnuad is a superior prospect? The second of the two is almost indisputable. The first, as other posters have pointed out, is a matter of what your expectations are. Other posters have agreed that the year so far is neutral. That's not far off what I'm saying. So no, I won't move on.

If so many think this year has been such a raging success, tell me what aspects of his offensive game he has made major strides. I see a guy who still strikes out way to much for a guy with little power, and who hasn't shown an ability to hit for a decent average anywhere he's played. Any improvements he has made are incremental at best.

Gerry - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#259440) #
Beyonder..

Seriously I think you should quit this argument while you think you are ahead.

There have been many examples given above of Gose's improvements. But your argument is that his numbers are still not good enough. By my count that's two arguments.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#259441) #
Farrell's bullpen management tonight so far has been...curious. I wish he had just left Frasor in to get the last out of the seventh. Sigh.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#259442) #
that is the worst inning of bullpen management I have ever seen.

lets salty hit lefty, brings in perez a batter late, then pulls perez for david fricken' pauley after one batter and lets david fricken' pauley pitch the highest leverage situation of the game against Dustin Pedroia.

inexcusable managing there.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#259443) #
Yep.  Salty's homer wasn't exactly a blast, and if one is worried overly about Ryan Kalish with two outs and nobody on, that isn't great.  Bringing David Pauley into a high leverage situation isn't a great idea either. 
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#259444) #
Or a kinder, gentler version of what uglyone said.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#259445) #
Luis Perez had pitched 1 inning in the last 10 days before this game.

He was pulled after 1 batter so that we could go with Pauley and Richmond the last two innings instead.

Farrell literally handed this game to the Red Sox. Literally just gave up in a tie game in the 8th and handed it to them.

unbelievable.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#259446) #
that is the worst inning of bullpen management I have ever seen.

lets salty hit lefty, brings in perez a batter late, then pulls perez for david fricken' pauley after one batter and lets david fricken' pauley pitch the highest leverage situation of the game against Dustin Pedroia.


inexcusable managing there.


Terrible.  I have no idea why he sped through Frasor and (especially) Perez to get to Pauley.
smcs - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 10:58 PM EDT (#259447) #
Odd time for Farrell to start platoon matching. Especially considering Saltalamacchia is worse against lefties than righties and Pauley is better against lefties than righties. If Frasor gets Salty, it's still a 1-0 game with Francisco Cordero due to pitch the 8th. Crappy lose but get 'em tomorrow and win the series.
John Northey - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#259448) #
I'm thinking Perez is hurt and the Jays are trying not to DL him with such an injured staff.

No more than 2 games off from May 5th to June 11th, then 4 games off, then 2, then 4 off before seeing just 1 batter tonight. Now, over those last 3 games pre-tonight he threw 38-37-23 pitches before just 3 tonight so it could be he was just tired, but still it seems odd.

To pull a guy who has been fairly effective overall this year in order to bring in a guy who is probably #10 or so in your bullpen depth chart in a tight ballgame suggests there is something going on that we don't know. Hopefully I'm wrong and Farrell just had a bit of a brain cramp tonight using Pauley instead of letting Frasor and/or Perez face a couple more hitters.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#259450) #
I've said it once and I'll say it again - Bring Back Gibby.

For a former pitcher and pitching coach it's pretty amazing how clueless Farrell is when it comes to handling a bullpen.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#259451) #
Wow, and the big elephant in the room is ignored.   You're talking about pitching with (one of the many going) 6.0 IP with a 0.00 ERA and ignoring an offense that didn't show up after the 1st inning.  
Magpie - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#259452) #
If Frasor gets Salty, it's still a 1-0 game with Francisco Cordero due to pitch the 8th.

It's possible he didn't want to use Cordero three days in a row. (Holy crap - people wanted to see Coco in the game? I think my head just exploded.)

It's always easy to take the test when you know the answer. I wasn't complaining about most of it while it was happening. Laffey has hardly been stretched out, so replacing him made sense. Frasor's last outing was outstanding. But when he tossed that gopherball (Zaun vigourously defended both letting him pitch to Saltalamacchia, and the pitch that he threw him) I know I was irritated, I'd seen enough, I wanted him out of the game. So Perez comes in to get the LH batter and instantly gives up a double. I was irritated, I'd seen enough, I wanted him out of the game. Okay, David Pauley. Let's see what you got. We do have to find out, at some point. It turned out he had diddley. Sweet F.A.

It was seeing Pauley come back out for the next inning that made me yell at my TV.
PeteMoss - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 11:23 PM EDT (#259453) #
If you were going to use Perez.. you had to bring him in to face Saltalamacchia. That was the killer. Yanking after one hitter was the salt in the wound to bring in a guy just off waivers was the salt in the wound.
Magpie - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 11:36 PM EDT (#259455) #
Zaun's argument for having Frasor face Saltalamacchia was that he'd been batting right-handed all night (and almost certainly in BP as well), and it's tough when you get turned around in mid-game. Zaun was a switch-hitter himself, I'll take his word for it. My own feeling was that in a one-run game in Fenway Park, it's generally worth while making a switch-hitter bat left-handed.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#259456) #

Wow, and the big elephant in the room is ignored. You're talking about pitching with (one of the many going) 6.0 IP with a 0.00 ERA and ignoring an offense that didn't show up after the 1st inning.

Ridiculous. Offenses have bad nights, and so does pitching. What's inexcusable is the manager not putting his team in the best position to win the game, regardless of whether one aspect of the team game is struggling.

It's always easy to take the test when you know the answer. I wasn't complaining about most of it while it was happening.

Feel free to stop by the Batter's Box Chat during the game to hear me complain about Farrell's pen management while it's going on.

Magpie - Tuesday, June 26 2012 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#259457) #
it's pretty amazing how clueless Farrell is when it comes to handling a bullpen.

I haven't been dazzled by Farrell's handling of the pitching staff, but I do think that the biggest problem with the 2012 bullpen is the people in it.

Fun fact: the best Toronto bullpens of the last decade were the 2007 crew (2nd best relief ERA in the league) and the 2008 guys (best relief ERA in the league.) Jason Frasor was no more than the fifth-best relief pitcher on both of those teams (behind Accardo, Downs, Janssen and Tallet in 2007; behind Ryan, Downs, Carlson, and Tallet in 2008.) I guess he's moved up the depth chart since then.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 27 2012 @ 12:08 AM EDT (#259458) #
Not sure he's really any higher now than he was then.

Since 2010:

D.Oliver (41): 139.0ip, 8.9k/9, 2.1bb/9, 2.27era, 2.73fip, 2.95xfip
S.Santos (28): 120.0ip, 11.4k/9, 4.4bb/9, 3.53era, 3.12fip, 3.27xfip
C.Janssen (30): 153.0ip, 8.5k/9, 2.4bb/9, 2.94era, 3.30fip, 3.25xfip
J.Frasor (34): 152.0ip, 9.4k/9, 4.1bb/9, 3.67era, 3.66fip, 3.79xfip
L.Perez (27): 82.0ip, 7.9k/9, 3.4bb/9, 3.84era, 4.14fip, 3.71xfip
C.Villy (28): 119.2ip, 9.7k/9, 4.4bb/9, 3.38era, 4.16fip, 3.90xfip
F.Cordero (37): 172.2ip, 6.4k/9, 3.7bb/9, 3.44era, 4.17fip, 4.33xfip
*A.Laffey (27): 93.0ip, 4.5k/9, 3.5bb/9, 4.26era, 4.61fip, 4.67xfip
*J.Carreno (25): 21.2ip, 7.1k/9, 3.7bb/9, 1.66era, 3.31fip, 4.05xfip


Janssen/Oliver/Santos have all been a cut above, while Frasor/Perez/Villy/Cordero have been fairly interchangebly good but not great relievers the last while.
TJ Caino - Wednesday, June 27 2012 @ 12:33 AM EDT (#259459) #
that is the worst inning of bullpen management I have ever seen.

lets salty hit lefty, brings in perez a batter late, then pulls perez for david fricken' pauley after one batter and lets david fricken' pauley pitch the highest leverage situation of the game against Dustin Pedroia.


inexcusable managing there.

I was puzzled.
TJ Caino - Wednesday, June 27 2012 @ 12:35 AM EDT (#259460) #
I would be very interested to hear JF's logic on those moves.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 27 2012 @ 08:31 AM EDT (#259466) #
I wondered if Kelly Johnson had ever had as bad a month as June, 2012.  Sure enough, he had a worse month in June, 2009.  He was placed on the DL in July, 2009 with right wrist tendinitis and Bobby Cox attributed his June slump to the injury.

Assuming that he is healthy now (and that may be a big assumption), you don't really want him batting fifth until he recovers his stroke after the hamstring injury.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, June 27 2012 @ 08:35 AM EDT (#259467) #

Unless the first 3 words out of John Farrell's mouth are "I was wrong" I am not interested in hearing his logic. 

I suspect that he was trying to show confidence in the other guys in the hope that it would pay dividends down the line.  You can win with that style of managing (see Gaston, Cito) but I absolutely hate sacrificing today in favour of a theoretical tomorrow... run your best guys out there in the best situation and you will win more often I guarentee it.

In an earlier point I had said that I believed Farrell had cost us 4 games this season with his management... I guess I have to make it 5 now.

greenfrog - Wednesday, June 27 2012 @ 08:38 AM EDT (#259468) #
I don't think it's a case of "hindsight is 20/20" to ask why Farrell went Frasor-Perez-Pauley in a game that was at first 1-0 Jays and then 1-1 in the 7th inning with runners on and Pedroia waiting in the wings (about as critical a point in the game as you can imagine). I'm sure the Red Sox were thrilled to see Pauley instead of Frasor, Perez, Oliver or Janssen.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, June 27 2012 @ 08:39 AM EDT (#259469) #
We had an option who made alot of sense in the #5 hole.  Makes good contact, gets on base, has a little pop, is a lefty to balance out Bautista and EE.  Instead we optioned him to AAA in favour of a guy who has been outhit by John Macdonald for over a year.
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, June 27 2012 @ 09:16 AM EDT (#259470) #
I know I was irritated, I'd seen enough, I wanted him out of the game. So Perez comes in to get the LH batter and instantly gives up a double. I was irritated, I'd seen enough, I wanted him out of the game.

God help us if Farrell thinks that way.
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, June 27 2012 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#259471) #
It's always easy to take the test when you know the answer. I wasn't complaining about most of it while it was happening.

I was.  When he lifted Perez for Pauley I said "WTF are you doing Farrell??"  I'm still asking that question this morning.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 27 2012 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#259473) #
I guess Farrell had more confidence in Pauley after his outings in Miami than I had. 

Farrell has average raw material in the bullpen and has not got the most of it; one way or the other, he has regularly managed to have lesser pitchers throw in high leverage situations and better pitchers in low leverage situations.  Some of it has resulted from conventional usage, some from non-conventional (but illogical) usage.  Casey Janssen has been employed with a leverage of 1.2; you've got to be able to do better than that. 

Hodgie - Wednesday, June 27 2012 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#259482) #
I didn't particularly like Farrell's decisions post homerun and questioning those decisions is perfectly understandable but please spare me the "Farrell gave up" rhetoric, it is beyond insulting. That said, I am going to go out on a limb and predict that if the Jays only score 1 run today against the second highest scoring team in MLB they will lose. I also have it on good authority there is a good chance that the sun will come up tomorrow and that Revenue Canada will be expecting me to once again pay taxes this year.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 27 2012 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#259483) #
To be dead honest, this has happened a number of times with Farrell v. the Red Sox in particular, in terms of sending in the scrubs (both position players and relievers) in games that are nowhere near over.

Looks a lot like "giving up" to me.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 27 2012 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#259484) #
For the record, here's Farrell's explanation:

""Groundball pitcher in this ballpark, if we continue to let Luis (pitch) against (Brent Lillibridge, who was lifted for Nava), thatís his strength, thatís why Lillibridge is in that lineup,Ē Farrell said of why he went to Pauley""

That's right - his explanation was that he had to match up against BRENT LILLIBRIDGE (who, of course, was promptly pinch hit for by a hot lefty bat).

BRENT LILLIBRIDGE is the reason he felt he had to go to David Pauley in the highest leverage situation in a tie game.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, June 27 2012 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#259485) #
I also heard him use the language "that was the ballgame right there" in reference to the 7th inning.  I would imagine thats why Pauley was left in to give up 2 more runs (effectively killing any hope of a rally) in the 8th.
China fan - Wednesday, June 27 2012 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#259486) #
"....To be dead honest, this has happened a number of times with Farrell v. the Red Sox in particular, in terms of sending in the scrubs (both position players and relievers) in games that are nowhere near over...."

Just for clarity -- are you saying that Farrell tends to "give up" against his former employer? Because that's what you appear to be suggesting. If so, it's quite a serious allegation, since you're actually hinting that he's more loyal to the Red Sox than the Jays. Perhaps I'm misreading your comment, but that's what you appear to be implying. I'm sure that I'm not the only one who would read your comment this way, so I think you should clarify what you mean.
eungar - Wednesday, June 27 2012 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#259487) #
"....To be dead honest, this has happened a number of times with Farrell v. the Red Sox in particular, in terms of sending in the scrubs (both position players and relievers) in games that are nowhere near over...."

I didn't take it that way. I took it to mean that Farrell is over managing the games that are played against the Red Sox maybe feeling spite and a little extra competitiveness against his former club that also did't give him a manager chance when they had the opportunity.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 27 2012 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#259488) #

This argument is getting ridiculous

If anyone is interested in something different, Tom Dakers at BBB has a 2 part  interview he had with Dwayne Murphy.

http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2012/6/26/3118696/interview-with-blue-jays-hitting-coach-dwayne-murphy-part-one

http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2012/6/27/3120655/interview-with-blue-jays-hitting-coach-dwayne-murphy-part-two#comments

uglyone - Wednesday, June 27 2012 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#259491) #
No, i'm not saying he's tanking games.

just like players (or even fans) might fold a bit when losing against a tough opponent, i get the sense that farrell holds a bit too much respect for these red sox as well. there was a game earlier in the year when we were down 5-1 or something in the 7th or 8th and he treated it like a blowout and started bringing in the scrubs, and i got the same impression last night. Instead of fighting right through to the end like they would against another team they seem more willing to concede a game against the red sox.
China fan - Wednesday, June 27 2012 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#259493) #
Thanks for the clarification, but I still don't grasp the logic of it. Why would Farrell be more likely to "give up" against a struggling 4th-place team? You'd think he would be more competitive against one of his main rivals for the final wild-card position, not to mention the fact that he has the additional motivation of wanting to prove himself against his former employer. I really think your impression of Farrell "giving up" against a specific team is very questionable. It just doesn't make sense, when you consider all the factors.
85bluejay - Wednesday, June 27 2012 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#259494) #
I will say Valentine outmanaged Farrell last night - again, it seems the Red Sox  are lucky the Jays said no when they inquired on Farrell.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 27 2012 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#259498) #
David Pauley pitches the highest leverage at bats in a tied ballgame in the 7th and 8th innings yesterday, and now Luis Perez gets to soak up some mop-up duty in the late innings of today's blowout.

my brain hurts.
Dr B - Wednesday, June 27 2012 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#259499) #
Thank you hypobole. His comments about Lind's problem not being his swing but being too passive were interesting. Fangraphs (from lexomatic's link on the Musgrove thread) says he is too pull happy.

I also liked the "Those stats don't matter to me." line. If he's not picking the line-up does it really matter? I suppose having stats enables you to identify a weakness.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 27 2012 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#259502) #
It is really odd that (in particular) Romero, Frasor, and Villanueva have had such trouble throwing strikes this year.  Drabek  had the issue last year, and there is clearly an adaptation issue.  For the others to lose control formerly possessed is unusual.  Does anyone have any insights for the reasons for this?  If it was one pitcher, you would ascribe it to something specific to that pitcher, but that doesn't seem to be the case here.  
92-93 - Wednesday, June 27 2012 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#259503) #

David Pauley pitches the highest leverage at bats in a tied ballgame in the 7th and 8th innings yesterday, and now Luis Perez gets to soak up some mop-up duty in the late innings of today's blowout. 

This. John Northey tried to make the excuse that perhaps Perez is injured. Well, we can throw that one out the window. Farrell removed Perez after one batter in a tie game to go to Pauley only to come back to Perez the next day in a 10-4 blowout for 2 full innings. Incredibly poor bullpen management.

Perez, FWIW, looked fantastic in his 2 getaway innings today.

smcs - Wednesday, June 27 2012 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#259504) #
I think Romero is just in his own head. He thinks he has to be perfect, when pretty good will get the job done. Back in 2008, while Romero was repeating AA, Brian Jeroloman said:

Catching [Ricky] is very easy, it is easy to get on the same page as him, he doesn't realize how good he is, I wish he could face himself and that could make him understand how tough it is to hit against him. He has such dynamite pitches that sometimes he tries to do too much, sometimes he gets in his own way.

That quote has stuck with me, and I was completely non-surprised by how he pitched today.

His main difference from last year is that he stopped throwing his sinker/two-seamer for strikes, so he has stopped throwing it (or Brooks Baseball has classified him as throwing fewer sinkers, which is what I take to be his two-seamer) and he is facing slightly more lefties this year than last year.
John Northey - Thursday, June 28 2012 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#259520) #
All I can figure at this point when it comes to Perez is that for some reason Farrell has no confidence in him. 

Lets try to see why....
Perez in...
Very High Leverage (2.5+): 2 games, 2/3 IP total, got a K for his only batter once, allowed 4 runs in 1/3 IP the other (April 27)
High Leverage (1.5+): 6 games, 8 2/3 IP (4 IP in one), 1 run allowed, 5 H, 6 BB 6 SO (bit wild)
Medium Leverage (1+): 1 game, 1 2/3 IP no runs 1 walk 1 hit 4 K's
Low Leverage (.5+): 6 games, 6 2/3 IP, 12 h, 5 runs, 1 walk, 4 K's
Very low (under .5): 16 games, 20 IP, 11 H, 4 runs, 7 walks, 21 K's

Huh.  Over 50% of his appearances have been in as low pressure as you get (down 2+ or up by 4+) and he does well (1.80 ERA).  In 1+ situations (average or worse for pressure) he has been allowed to throw 11 IP with an ERA of 4.09 and 7 walks vs 11 K's (1 HR). 

That wildness in tight games must be why Farrell doesn't let him throw in those games much.  Best guess I have as to what is happening.  Clearly Perez does very well in the super-low pressure games.  At this point, given the wasted resource he seems to be Farrell should just let him start and see what happens - maybe the lower pressure at the start of a game will get us the 1.80 ERA guy instead of the 4 ERA guy.
Boston Red Sox - June 25-27 | 112 comments | Create New Account
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