Since July 28th:

Laffey has had one good start and two stinkers.  Villanueva can't win, and Alvarez hasn't won.  The bullpen has stunk up one game (the 10th).  Since 03 July, Cecil has two poorly pitched N.D. and three decently pitched losses.  

Travis Snider is traded (30 July), about the same time Adam Lind (July 26th) starts having back problems and Arencibia (July 25th) was Injured.  Oh yeah, doesn't Bautista officially go on the D.L., about this time,after being out since the 17th.

On the 20th we acquired Happ, Lyon and D.Carpenter.  On the 30th we acquire Lincoln and Delabar.

Sometimes your depth is just not good enough, and the depth's depth is just not good enough and the depth's depth's depth is just not ready.  One consolation in the 14 games since is the three wins, two losses by one run, one loss by two runs and 5 losses by three runs.  They are not getting badly beat every time.

Gomes and Mathis are the catchers, not offensive assets.  Gose and Hechavarria are bodies to fill spots not offensive assets.  No one called up replaces people left, so how they do will show what we need. 

From April 5th to May 19th, Toronto is 23-18, and in contention.  They go to 24-24 (1-6) by 27 May, as 35 ER are given up by our Starters in 30.33 IP, and are still in contention.  From the 28th of May to the 28th of July, Toronto is 27- 25 (andlosing half the Team to injuries, and are still in contention.   Since then they go 3-11 and fall totally out of contention.  So when they are average or a little better, the Team is 50-43, and when they stink, the Team is 4-17.

This Team has better pitching than some people think, it just wasn`t good enough nor deep enough to take advantage.  If, instead of 4-17 they only go 11-10, this team is 61-53, just 6 games out of the Division lead, but only 1/2 game out of the Wild Card.

And someone thinks this Team has no pitching!

I found this http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/2012/08/12/alex_anthopoulos_toronto_blue_jays_off_season_needs/ item to be encouraging.

Morrow and Romero, plus two or three acquisitions, will form the Starting Rotation (4 or 5).  With Drabek and Hutchison missing all of 2013 (most likely scenario), our depth of field is lacking.   Henderson Alvarez is our 5th or 6th Starter; Brett Cecil becomes # 6; our # 7 Starter is someone named who.   Maybe Chad Jenkins becomes a viable # 7 Starter or a # 7 Reliever.   This lack indicates to me, that Three Starters will likely be acquired.

The Kids, as a group, have been struggling, while trying hard.  These Kids form the depth of this Team going forward.   Some are much closer, without naming the obvious names, to being ready than some others.  Morrow will return; Bautista will return; Lawrie will return; Frasor will return; Lind will return; Arencibia may not.   As to whom shall be called up in September?   Not Stroman, unless he's on the Team going forward.  The 40-man Roster will be the cast of characters chosen.   This is basically going to be a depth audtion for most, but for others, a decision gets made on who is to be removed from the 40-man this offseason.

John

 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=177 doesn't go anywhere.

John

It's bizzare, your link doesn't work?  My Copy and Paste does?

My preference for Free Agent Pitchers are (in order): Zach Greinke (RHP), (28); Brandon McCarthy (RHP), (29); Edwin Jackson (RHP), (28); Shaun Marcum (RHP), (30) and that's it.  No one else looks better than Henderson Alvarez, unless someone is seeing something I'm not.

Now as for a Trade or two, assets are meant to be used.  Trading two Top Stud prospects et al (4 or 5 more) for a Star Pitcher should be a no brainer.  That shouldn't "strip" the system as some fear, because if we can't do that, our minor system sucks.

2013 must be the year.   Bautista will, at some time, start to decline - slowly or rapidly - it will happen.   While he's still very effective, we must take advantage of his abilities.   Either "go for it", or Trade Him while his value is still high.   It's simple, one or the other - pick one.

I have to admit to being cynical about AA's weekend comments.  First, i would simplify his comments this way:

The offense was at the top of the league before guys got hurt so we think we are good there for next year.

The bullpen, with the new additions, is in a good place too and it is fine for next year.

The rotation is the one spot where the Jays need help, up to three new starters would be good.

OK, so how are we going to get these new starters?  The choice comes down to free agency or trade.  An AL East quality starter is not going to be ready internally next year.

I am not optimistic about free agency.  The pool is limited.  Free agents can name their preferred location and their price.  AA has never indicated he would be willing to go crazy with spending on free agents.  A free agent on a one or two year deal at a competitive contract?  Sure he would be all over that.  But why should we expect a reasonable free agency period for pitchers this fall?  There are a couple of teams with new owners and deep pockets which will also inflate contracts.  So before we get all excited about Zach Greinke get me excited about Rogers increasing payroll, or AA being willing to bid high, or AA being interested in long term free agent contracts for pitchers.  I don't see it for the big name guys.

This gets me to the second option, trades.  I suspect this will be the approach AA will take.  So who is tradeable?  I see the following: JP Arencibia; Yunel Escobar; Anthony Gose; Jake Marisnick; and a couple of the young pitchers.  Arencibia and Escobar can be traded because there are internal options, I am not saying they are equally valuable internal options, just from a body perspective.  Rasmus makes one of Gose or Marisnick expendable, and pitchers always have value although A ball pitchers have less value that those in AA.

If AA trades Arencibia and Escobar, then his argument that the 2012 offense was #1 and will be fine in 2013 is gone, unless you believe d'Arnaud and Hechavarria will provide equal value in 2013.

So my cynical view if that the Jays will not sign a "top" pitching free agent.  They might sign a marginal guy, they will try for trades but you have to give up value to get value and giving up value will have a cost.

AA is talking a page out of Beeston's book, the future is bright, don't look at the present.  Remember there are years of playoffs coming.

It should be accepted by everyone that the chances of Syndergaard, Nicolino or Sanchez being a 200 inning-ready MLB Starter in 2015 is remote, if ever.  As good as they are, they have a long, long way to go.   There is no reason not to make any one of them available in a Trade.

Trading d'Arnaud makes better sense than trading the established Arencibia when you are "going for it".   Rasmus blocks Gose.   Gose's abilities are wasted in LF, Sierra can do that job well.   Does Hechavarria have more trade value than Escobar?  Maybe not.

Offering Syndergaard (most asked for), d'Arnaud (injury-prone?) and Gose as the main items of your (5-7 player) package should get your Stud Pitcher, especially from a Team not ready to contend.   Minnesota, Seattle, Kansas City, Miami, Chicago, Houston, San Diego and Colorado might be open for dealing.   The other Teams are harder to read.   I can see a big Trade happening.

As for Free Agents, I can see A.A. being able to got up to $20.0MM per season as well as up to 6 years with one or two option years, if he really means what he says.  Other than Greinke, I won`t give anyone that kind of money.

Two points to remember:

1) 9/11.  The border used to be like crossing the street.  Now it`s very intrusive.   As the Guys at Baseball Central At Noon said, all thing being equal ...then said Toronto has to buy those problems away (spend the money).   Anthopoulos must understand just how much more he must pay to get Top Free Agents to come here now.  He needs to offer $3.0MM - $5.0MM more per year; and 2-3 more years with option years.

2) Jose Bautista saying, ``trade me``.   If I`m Bautista, after this injury, I want a Trade if the Rotation is not much, much better.   If that happens, I don`t see how A.A. stays as GM.

Baseball: Who the heck knows what's gonna happen?

It's truly wonderful that way, isn't it? I mean, you can see Humber throw a perfect game, Davis turn a good read into a catch of the year contender, Kevin Frandsen hitting a homer off of Strasburg, or countless other improbable events on any given night.

Yeah, the offense does seem to have some holes for 2013.  2B, LF, and 1B/DH will need attention.

If we just re-sign Johnson, and acquire an OF to compete with Davis for playing time, then we'd look alright.  Johnson is inconsistent, but he's capable of hitting very well, and we'd just have to hope we'd get one of his better years next season.  A proven, consistent hitter at 2B is not going to be easy to acquire, and Johnson is likely going to be the best option for us.  A legit big bat 1B or DH instead of Cooper or Lind would be nice, but improving our rotation should be the priority.

Escobar, Johnson, Bautista, Encarnacion, Rasmus, Lawrie, Cooper, Arencibia, Davis/someguy

That's respectable enough, and if we fix our rotation, that group has enough talent to succeed if things go well.  The d'Arnaud, Hechevarria, Gose, Sierra group at AAA is also interesting depth to have for potential pleasant surprises during the season (Gose and Hech clearly aren't ready now, but perhaps they will be during 2013 at some point).

Last year Villanueva developed a "tired arm" and had to be pulled from the rotation.  If this happens again in the next 7 weeks then his dream of a big payday likely goes up in smoke. There is some incentive for him to sign earlier rather than wait for FA.

Theoretical question.  What does Gose have to hit to make him a viable centerfielder, with Rasmus moving to left? ZIPS has him at .230/.295/.365, and I think that would do it, with his defensive and baserunning contributions.  

It's taken you 4.5 months, but I see you've come around MG. ZIPS' projection of Gose before 2012 was .230/.300/.374. When I suggested that the team was better on the field with Rasmus/Gose/Bautista rather than Thames/Rasmus/Bautista I was scoffed at because Gose wasn't ready for the major leagues. When Gose gets called up and I point out the folly in rushing up a prospect who clearly isn't ready when the team has no chance to compete, there of course becomes a whole new set of reasons why it makes sense to have an undeveloped prospect up in the major leagues. So it goes around here.  

and nobody is condemning him to the "never will hit" garbage bin.

I haven't been in these parts for a while, but does such a sentiment truly exist about Gose? I would have thought that the prevailing opinion would be that he's not ready yet, but that given his advanced level for his age that it was just a matter of time, maybe another year.

IMO people still don't consider Gose's age enough.

If this is indeed true, then it is unfortunate. Age is a huge determinant of future success.

What does Gose have to hit to make him a viable centerfielder, with Rasmus moving to left? ZIPS has him at .230/.295/.365, and I think that would do it, with his defensive and baserunning contributions.

That Rajai Davis would be squeezed out of a starting job in this scenario is, of course, irrelevant. So I will dismiss that as an impediment to this plan.

And while Ramus is, subjectively, a good center fielder, though perhaps not a great one, he would lose value playing in left field. But that said, any outfield with Gose in it must have Gose in center field.

A legitimate question is -- and I don't presume to know the answer -- would Gose's development continue at the same pace in the majors as it would were he to spend the next year in AAA instead? And I am thinking about more than just issues related to confidence. While I suppose it seems self-evident that the best way to learn to hit major league pitching is to face major league pitching (a position that many argued during Snider's many demotions), is it not perhaps in Gose's best interest to learn to cream AAA pitching first before then seguing into facing major league pitching fulltime. Again, I don't pretend to know what the right answer is here.

I would rather give Gose another year in AAA, keep Rasmus in CF, and go get a LF who can legitimately hit in the 5 or 6 spot and play half-decent defense - even just a 1-year guy who's a free agent after 2013.  Whether they can get such a player or not, I don't know.  Given Gose's age, I think it is highly likely that he develops into a good mlb hitter.

Surprised to hear AA say he thinks the offense is set for next year.  After Lawrie, Rasmus, Bautista and EE, I'm not all that impressed with the rest.  When you're that top-heavy, you're very vulnerable to injury, as just a couple of your big bats being hurt leaves you in a difficult situation.  I think there is a good chance that D'Arnaud gives them another good bat.  Sierra is hitting well in a small sample size here, but looking at his AAA numbers this year and his AA numbers last year, I doubt he's ready to hit well enough to be a mlb outfielder next year.

I'd like to see them sign Villanueva - I think he's got a reasonable chance to be a quality starter for a modest dollar figure.  I don't get the talk about offering him the $13 million or whatever it would take to guarantee a draft pick - he'd take that in a heartbeat, and he's not worth nearly that much.  I've always liked Marcum, but he's not exactly the healthiest guy around.  Any chance Janssen could be a starter?  They seem to have a lot of depth in the bullpen now, assuming Santos is healthy next year, and especially if they sign Lyon.  Janssen seems to finally be 100% after the shoulder surgery, and he has the repertoire of a starter.

Zaunie just mentioned the idea of Janssen moving back into the rotation next year in a Fan 590 interview.  He likes the idea and I agree.  If they resign Lyon, they still have a strong bullpen of Santos, Lyon, Lincoln, Oliver, Delabar, Frasor(?), Perez or Loup, and maybe a guy like Happ if he's not starting.  You could have Janssen, Morrow, Romero, Villanueva and a free agent signing like Marcum in the rotation.  Happ is your depth guy in case of injury to a starter and Alvarez gets some development time in AAA until he is needed in the big leagues at some point. 

Alternatively, maybe you can package Happ and a prospect or 2 for a left fielder.  It would be nice to get a guy who can be a legit leadoff hitter, and by that I mean a guy with a high on base percentage, and play some good defense in left.  Then you can move either Rasmus or Lawrie down to the 5 hole.  More people on base means more RBI's for Bautista and EE.  When you've got 2 big power guys like that, you want to maximize their value by getting lots of baserunners in front of them.

I did hedge by saying that Villanueva had "some" incentive to sign early not that he would.

This off-season he got himself ready for it.

How do you prepare to pitch 200 innings when the most you've pitched is 114 in your mlb career and could he please reveal his secret to Blue Jays management.  We should have those Lansing pitchers on the program.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Farrell is gone after this year. 

Funny, my guess would be the exact opposite (not that I care one way or another if Farrell stays or go).

Firing Farrell would make him a sympathetic figure what with all the injuries he's had to deal with. That would make AA, and by extension Rogers, the villain in this piece. And why invite bad PR when the team's misfortunes can already be laid in the lap of Providence?

Farrell seems to have his fair share of bad luck.  He chose Lincoln to face Dunn-Rios one night and Dunn homers; he chose Oliver to face Dunn-Rios the next night and Rios homers.  I think both pitchers are effective enough to not follow strict platoons.

Same with the EE injury.  EE saw plenty of time in ST in LF; try it in a game?  Yep, injured.  99% of the time a manager gets away with that.  Christ I remember Troy Glaus playing SS.

At what point does a better draft pick balance out the potential hit to attendance & TV ratings, or the perception of the team by free agents?

I take the point, but I think the primary reason the Jays have a perception problem with the vast majority of free agents is that the Jays have no interest in offering them a major league contract.

Quick thought about the Jays' injuries.  I know that it seems that Lawrie, Morrow and Bautista will likely return in the near or nearish future, but they're not back yet.

Has anybody, at any time in 2012, returned from the disabled list to appear in a game for the Jays?  I mean, it's bad luck to have the staggering number of DL'd players the Jays have had.  But it would seem to be truly awful luck to have each and every DL stint to be, heretofore, permanent.

If we exclude guys who were on the minor league disabled list, I believe Ben Francisco is the only one.

Several posters on the Box expressed that opinion last year, when we saw Dewayne Wise get meaningless September at-bats and when he was taken off the 40-man. I don't think he's that good a hitter, of course, but, as was noted on here several times, Mastro's got several traits that could make him an effective 4th or 5th outfielder. He didn't have a future in Toronto because of the team's infatuation with relievers, but he could carve out a few years in the majors.