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At this point, we can be pretty certain of the identities of nine of the ten teams that will proceed to the post-season. The murkiest situation is in the AL Central, where the White Sox hold a two game lead on the Tigers. However, all but one of Detroit's remaining games are against Minnesota and Kansas City. The White Sox have to play the Angels and Tampa Bay seven times before this thing is over. I wouldn't count the Tigers out just yet.


So let's hand out the individual awards.

AL MVP

In the batter's box, Miguel Cabrera has emerged as the most powerful force in the game. And you have to respect the way he moved to a position he hadn't played in years in order to accommodate the Tigers' shiny new free agent. You also have to respect that he fought the position to a draw, which was more than said free agent could do across the diamond.  Nevertheless, this one's a no-brainer to me, and I'm pretty sure that Trout will make the fans of Anaheim forget all about Salmon. By the way, most guys who have seasons this good at age 20 go on to have even better seasons. Gulp.

1. Mike Trout, Los Angeles
2. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit
3. Robinson Cano, New York
4. Adrian Beltre, Texas
5. Justin Verlander, Detroit

NL MVP


The defending World Champs said good-bye to their legendary (if enormously irritating) manager. They also lost one of the two greatest players in team history. Chris Carpenter has yet to throw a pitch, and Lance Berkman has played in just 31 games. They won't quite match last year's 92-70 record, but they're going to the post-season anyway. And the remarkable play of their backstop is a big reason why. As the four straight Gold Gloves acknowledges, the third Molina has long been recognized as one of the outstanding defensive players at his position - but over the past two seasons, he has unexpectedly developed into quite the offensive force. And he's got 12 stolen bases! He's a Molina! How can this be?

1. Yadier Molina, St. Louis
2. David Wright, New York
3. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh
4. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee
5. Buster Posey, San Francisco


AL Cy Young

Two exceptionally well-qualified candidates, accompanied by a rather worthy group of also-runs. I wouldn't want to say either Verlander or Price has been better than the other guy - the quality they've given their teams this year has been too evenly matched. But Verlander's given his team 36 more innings of that quality, which is a pretty big deal.

1. Justin Verlander, Detroit
2. David Price, Tampa Bay
3. Chris Sale, Chicago
4. Matt Harrison, Texas
5. Jered Weaver, Los Angeles

NL Cy Young

The MLB award voters have always hated knuckleballers. They've also never much liked players on New York teams, at least not if there was a reasonable alternative. But Dickey's been as least as good as anybody else and he's worked the most innings. I don't see what else you can do, but I expect they'll think of something.

1. R.J. Dickey, New York

2. Kyle Lohse, St. Louis
3. Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati
4. Matt Cain, San Francisco
5. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles


AL Rookie of the Year


The only controversy is whether Trout should be eligible for the award. Well, Darvish and Cespedes are eligible - it would be very, very wrong if Trout wasn't.

1. Mike Trout, Los Angeles
2. Yu Darvish, Texas
3. Yoenis Cespedes, Oakland

NL Rookie of the Year


The kid's been really good. Not historically great, but darn good.

1. Bryce Harper, Washington
2. Wade Miley, Arizona
3. Norichika Aoki, Milwaukee


AL Manager of the Year

Obviously, Showalter's going to win - he's going to get a lot of the credit for his team's phenomenal record in one-run games. This skill - which consists mostly of being very, very lucky - is not something he's demonstrated at any previous point in his lengthy managerial career. Prior to this season, Showalter's teams had a losing record in one-run games; it is in fact entirely normal for successful managers to have a worse record in one-run games than they do overall. But the Orioles, finally, really are a much improved team this season, and Showalter can take some credit for that.

1. Buck Showalter, Baltimore
2. Robin Ventura, Chicago
3. Joe Girardi, New York

NL Manager of the Year

Why was this man out of work for so long? Okay, he can be more than a little prickly - way, way more! - to deal with, if you're a general manager. But all he does, and all he's ever done, is win. Which helps general managers keep their own jobs.

1. Dave Johnson, Washington
2. Mike Matheny, St. Louis
3. Dusty Baker, Cincinnati

And it makes a little more sense to choose All-Star teams at this time of year, no?

American League

C -  Joe Mauer, Minnesota. A nice bounce-back season. Apologies to Santana, Wieters,  and Pierzynski.
1B - Albert Pujols, Los Angeles. This year both Encarnacion and Fielder were probably a little better at the plate than Albert the Still Pretty Great (although there's a large Ballpark Effect working against Pujols.) But EE spent more time at DH than at first, and Fielder (possibly the worst defensive player I've seen in a generation) should have.
2B - Robinson Cano, New York. What a player. I really admire Pedroia and Kinsler, and Kipnis is pretty impressive. But there's no argument for anyone else here.
3B - Miguel Cabrera, Detroit. The greatest hitter in the game, who just edges out the great defender with the very, very good bat,. After Cabrera and Beltre, there's a pretty large fall-off, although Longoria and Lawrie will likely have something to say about that next year.
SS - Elvis Andrus, Texas. It's a really tough one. Jeter has the best bat, but not much glove; Ryan has the best glove, but not much bat. The best two-way players were Andrus and Aybar, and I'm not sure which comes ahead of the other. Except alphabetically...
LF - Josh Willingham, Minnesota. Gordon is a great defensive player, and a pretty good hitter. But Willingham shares a birthday with me, so there.
CF - Mike Trout, Los Angeles. He leaves Josh Hamilton, Curtis Granderson, Austin Jackson, and Adam Jones in the dust. In the dust. Holy crap...
RF - Tori Hunter, Los Angeles. Between Hunter, Alex Rios and Josh Reddick, there's not a whole lot to choose from.
DH - Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto. Better him than Adam Dunn. Actually, Billy Butler and David Ortiz were the only full-time DHs who were actually good (and Ortiz missed as much time as Jose Bautista this season.)
SP - Justin Verlander, Detroit. By a nose over Price and Sale.
RP - Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay. Where did that come from?

National League

C - Yadier Molina, St. Louis. Apologies to Buster Posey, who came up with an outstanding comeback season.
1B - Joey Votto, Cincinnati. He missed so much time that it's a good thing he'd already lapped the field. Given half a chance David Cooper would be about the fifth best first baseman in the whole damn NL.
2B - Aaron Hill, Arizona. Back on track, evidently, and he was just a little better than Phillips this year. Darwin Barney's defensive numbers are pretty eye-popping.
3B - David Wright, New York. Back on track, although he didn't really fall very far to begin with. Apologies to Chase Headley (where did that come from?)
SS - Jose Reyes, Miami. The best two way player. Is it possible that the NL doesn't have a great defensive shortstop these days?
LF - Ryan Braun, Milwaukee. The biggest difference between Braun and Melky? One of them beat the rap and one of them didn't.
CF - Andrew McCutchen, Pitsburgh. Apologies to Michael Bourn, who's been really good for the Braves. But McCutchen is a special player.
RF - Jason Heyward, Atlanta. Just turned 23 and he's already a grizzled vet beside Trout and Harper. Will be surprised if he doesn't win multiple MVPs.
SP - R.J. Dickey, New York. Edges out the good, if somewhat unglamourous, group.
RP - Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta. Just a little better than Chapman.
Awards Watch | 117 comments | Create New Account
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Mike Green - Thursday, September 20 2012 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#263637) #
A.J. Burnett, B.J. Ryan, C.J. Wilson, D.J. Carrasco...R.J. Dickey?  Close but no cigar.  I guess R.A. Dickey is better than Rob Dickey or something.

Yadier Molina has indeed had a great year, and would be a worthy MVP choice.  He got the big contract in 2008 and has improved quite a bit since then.  Who would have thought that he might end up as a better player over his career than Joe Mauer?

I would take Gordon over Willingham.  I do think that the defensive statistics accurately capture the huge gap between them, which more than offsets Willingham's power advantage.



Chuck - Thursday, September 20 2012 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#263640) #

I would take Gordon over Willingham. 

BBRef has the defensive gap so great between the two that Gordon is out WARing WIllingham 4.9 to 3.1.

On the topic of BBRef, it was quite odd to hear an interview yesterday with Sean Forman on CBC's As It Happens -- those just seem like two worlds that have little business colliding. The interview was focused on the tracking of MLB's 500,000th error. Next year's pet project will be MLB's 100,000 HBP. Really.

The Trout vs. Cabrera vote will be an interesting barometer of the inroads made by sabermetrics into the mainstream. Recent votes, like Felix Hernandez's 13-win Cy Young, would not have been imaginable a decade ago and should give Trout supporters some basis for hope.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, September 20 2012 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#263644) #
Mags, if you think the postseason is set, then someone adjusted your coffee - ish beverage.
If you are permitting Detroit into consideration, You should include LA Dodgers and Milwaukee to the NL Wild Card race.
Dewey - Thursday, September 20 2012 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#263645) #
I would take Gordon over Willingham.  I do think that the defensive statistics accurately capture the huge gap between them, which more than offsets Willingham's power advantage.

Well, yeah; maybe.  But he doesn’t have the right birthdate!   You ditzy stat-heads just don’t *get* being a fan, do you?  :)  :)  :) ;) ;) ;)  [just in case]
John Northey - Thursday, September 20 2012 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#263646) #
I'd love to see Milwaukee finish the comeback. On August 19th they were 12 games under 500, 12 1/2 behind the 2nd wild card (Pittsburgh). They've gone 22-6 since, 2 games better than anyone else in MLB (San Fran 20-8). Now they are 2 1/2 behind the Cardinals for the last playoff slot.

Coming from behind is always fun to watch, as long as it isn't your team that is falling back (!$&@ 1987).

Poor Pittsburgh. They looked like a contender but now are 500 and could finish sub-500 for the 20th straight year - ever since Barry Bonds left for San Francisco. Maybe they should sign Bonds for the last days to try to break the curse :)
Oceanbound - Thursday, September 20 2012 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#263648) #
Posey has had a better offensive season than Molina practically across the board, so you must think the defensive gulf between them is huge to rank Molina 1st in the MVP race and Posey 5th. I think most people would have Posey ahead of Molina, actually.
zeppelinkm - Thursday, September 20 2012 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#263649) #
I'm one of those who would vote for Posey over Molina. Posey's been absolutely incredible this year.
Magpie - Thursday, September 20 2012 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#263651) #
Posey has had a better offensive season than Molina practically across the board

It's been a little better, not a lot; stuff like 22 HRs instead of 20, .334 BAVG instead of .322, and it's slightly undone by Posey hitting into twice as many DPs.
John Northey - Thursday, September 20 2012 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#263652) #
Lots of interesting stats when you dig into the NL right now.

OBP: Joey Votto 471 (!) He just has 425 PA this year but has 80 walks including 17 intentional. Only Bonds (4 times) & Giambi (twice) have had higher OBP's in the 2000's, and just 3 times in the 90's did someone do better (Olerud in '93, Frank Thomas, and Edgar Martinez in the shortened '94 and '95 seasons).

Won/lost %: lead by Lohse - now that just is funny

K/9: 11.128 by Strasburg but he will be off the leaderboard at seasons end as he is shy of 162 IP. Would've been 19th all time - Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez each had a season over 13K per 9 (2001/1999 respectively).

Stolen Bases AL: Rajai Davis is 2nd with 44 to Trout's 46.
James W - Thursday, September 20 2012 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#263653) #
Posey spends half his games hitting at AT&T Park. Jayson Stark's favourite stat seems to be that Encarnacion has an many home runs at home as the entire Giants team.

I would also vote Posey over Molina... well, I'd also have Braun and McCutchen over Molina too.
Thomas - Thursday, September 20 2012 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#263658) #
Given how open the NL MVP race is, it's funny how the (probable) 2 man race in the AL is attracting nearly all of the media/internet attention.
TimberLee - Friday, September 21 2012 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#263675) #
Without studying the final numbers (impossible at the moment), I had Posey among the front-runners for MVP.
Chuck - Friday, September 21 2012 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#263678) #
I would imagine that given (a) the general undervaluing of defensive ability and (b) the lack of trust in single year DWARs (hell, in multi-year DWARs for that matter) that arguments the likes of Posey vs. Molina will always favour the better hitter.

As I said above, Cabrera vs. Trout will be a very interesting litmus test. And now that Hamilton is suffering from sinus and vision problems, and figures to be well rested heading into the playoffs, the triple crown is all the more available to Cabrera. Can Cabrera win the triple crown and not win the MVP? Ted Williams did so twice, losing to a Yankee both times, so it would not be unprecedented.
Mike Green - Friday, September 21 2012 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#263682) #
You are probably right, Chuck.  One area of Molina's defensive superiority over Posey is pretty clear: base thieves are 37-33 against Molina and 80-36 against Posey. 

Sometimes the voters are strange though. In 1944, Marty Marion was the MVP on account of his glove despite being the third most valuable player on his own team.  And he was a long, long way behind Musial. 

Predicting who will be the MVP is a bit like predicting which pop song will make it to the top of the charts.

Chuck - Friday, September 21 2012 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#263683) #
Call me MVP Maybe?
John Northey - Friday, September 21 2012 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#263684) #
Generally for MVP you start with the RBI leader, then if he has issues (low batting average, attitude, losing team) you could go any which way.

Cabrera has a strong negative defensive rep, but has played 3B without complaining which is a plus. He leads in RBI by 7 at the moment and probably more when all is said and done given Hamilton will be rested a lot now. Trout won't get to 100 RBI (price of being a leadoff hitter) and is in his first full season so voters might go 'we will see better from him, lets give it to Cabrera'. I'd be surprised if it isn't Cabrera at this point.

In the NL Braun has the steroid controversy otherwise would be a strong candidate for helping the Brewers come back, tied with Headley who has a 284 avg which is OK but not 300. Soriano could win the RBI crown but his team is well out of it and he is hitting 260 which is too low for many voters (unless you are a shortstop in a weak year). That makes it ideal for a catcher/pitcher/shortstop due to defense or amazing year. No pitcher in the NL is 'super wow' thus catcher is where it will probably be.
Mike Green - Friday, September 21 2012 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#263685) #
Call me MVP Maybe?

Hell, that's nothing.  It's actually a nice pop tune underneath all the gloss.  It might not be the Buster Posey or Yadier Molina of pop tunes, but at least it aint the Mike McCoy, like Silly Love Songs was.
Chuck - Friday, September 21 2012 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#263687) #

Cabrera has a strong negative defensive rep, but has played 3B without complaining which is a plus.

Yes. He'll get serious props for changing positions, particularly to one he is not terribly well qualified to play (it just makes him more sympathetic). However, the narrative where he morphs from selfish drunk to selfless team player will lose much of its lustre if the Tigers don't win their division. Of course, the Angels missing the playoffs and Trout's September swoon (you know, when the games count twice as much) will greatly interfere with his whole Fred Lynn narrative.

JB21 - Friday, September 21 2012 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#263695) #
John, RBI's? Average? Surely the voters aren't still basing their decisions on these two metrics.
Oceanbound - Saturday, September 22 2012 @ 12:37 AM EDT (#263699) #
Jon Paul Morosi wrote an article recently where he said Cabrera was a lock for the AL MVP, because "He leads Trout in the batting race, .333 to .327. He leads Josh Hamilton in the RBI race, 130 to 123. And now that he’s clinched his first 40-homer season, he’s only one behind Hamilton at 41." So yes, voters still cling to those numbers, no matter how absurd it may be.
Magpie - Saturday, September 22 2012 @ 03:04 AM EDT (#263700) #
Generally for MVP you start with the RBI leader

Not so much anymore. Since 2000, only two AL RBI leaders have won the MVP: Alex Rodriguez in 2007 (he also led the league in HR, R, SLUG, and OPS+) and Jason Giambi in 2000 (he led the league in OBP, OPS+, and he also caught absolute -fire in September to lift his team into the post-season.)

Ryan Howard (2006) was only other RBI king to win the MVP in the current millennium; Howard also led the NL in homers.
Magpie - Saturday, September 22 2012 @ 03:10 AM EDT (#263701) #
This millennium, the league-leading stat most frequently boasted by MVP winners is Slugging Percentage (13 MVPs). It's followed by OPS+ (10 MVPs), OnBase Pct and Runs Scored (8 MVPs each), BAVG and HRs (5 MVPs each). And finally, RBIs (3 MVPs)
Thomas - Saturday, September 22 2012 @ 08:53 AM EDT (#263703) #
It's actually a nice pop tune underneath all the gloss

I'd go even further than that. I think so would Drew Hutchison, too.

Waveburner - Saturday, September 22 2012 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#263714) #
robertdudek - Saturday, September 22 2012 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#263718) #
By the way, most guys who have seasons this good at age 20 go on to have even better seasons. Gulp.

How many 20-year-olds have had seasons this good?
robertdudek - Saturday, September 22 2012 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#263719) #
Reply:

None.

Trout is about to break the all-time WAR record for 20-year olds, currently held by Alex Rodriguez at 9.2. Trout is sitting on 10.3. Al Kaline is third at 8.0; Mel Ott is in fourth place 7.3.

In fact, Trout will beat the top 21-year old, Rogers Hornsby (9.7 WAR) and top 22-year old, Ted Williams (10.1 WAR).

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_bat_season.shtml

Why is his WAR so high? It is a unique combination of hitting, base-running and defense.

Magpie - Saturday, September 22 2012 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#263720) #
None

That might depend on whether you regard WAR as a precisely calibrated measuring instrument or a crude tool best suited for rough estimates. But I absolutely agree that what Trout's done this year can stand comparison to the greatest seasons ever by a 20 year old, along with Ott, Kaline, and Rodriguez.
robertdudek - Saturday, September 22 2012 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#263722) #
That might depend on whether you regard WAR as a precisely calibrated measuring instrument or a crude tool best suited for rough estimates.

Even assuming it is a crude estimate, show me a better metric and we'll use that one.
grjas - Saturday, September 22 2012 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#263723) #
I sure hope this team is just mailing it in at this point, otherwise we are really screwed next year.
hypobole - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 12:21 AM EDT (#263724) #
Although most calls for change involve Farrell and/or Murphy, the guy I'd be least sad to see leave is Walton.
Magpie - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 12:37 AM EDT (#263725) #
Even assuming it is a crude estimate, show me a better metric and we'll use that one.

Come on, what's wrong with the stuff I pull out of my nether orifice?

Somewhat more seriously, or as seriously as you're ever going to get from me, I think that any metric that depends on a theory of the game is always going to be problematic. (Hey, it might not be my theory!) And obviously metrics that yoke together a series of theories on the various parts of the game are going to multiply those problems exponentially. There's a real use for a Great Statistic, something that expresses in a single integer all the various things a baseball player does. It's absolutely ideal for certain crude operations (like what percentage of Tampa Bay's talent came from trades, what percentage from the free agent draft.) A single integer is needed for that kind of analysis. I don't much like it for anything else, though. The game seems too complicated to me.

I suspect sometimes that the convenience of having a single integer catch-all makes us a little lazy. Instead of examining a player's entire record, we check the WAR listings and take the rest on faith. It's just so handy. So easy. I think just having such an integer - which even I think we need to have and use - so available and so handy creates the illusion that all this is pretty easy to understand. I think there might be a trap there. I sense danger. My spidey-sense tingles as I approach.

Or maybe I just don't care! Or not enough, anyway. Was Mike Trout's 2012 better than Rodriguez's 1996, a generation ago? Better than Kaline's 1955, Ott's 1929, before any of us were born? Maybe, but who the hell actually knows? How could anyone even presume to know? How much closer can we really come except to say that they were all in the same general ballpark? And beyond that - I guess I don't care all that much.

I realize that all this might be pretty curmudgeonly of me. (Whoa. Did I just invent a word?)
hypobole - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 01:47 AM EDT (#263726) #
Buster Onley has an interesting take on the Miggy/Trout MVP debate. After quoting Ron Gardenhire stating "He (Cabrera) is the best player in the American League. He should be the MVP", Onley points out most field managers agree with Gardenhire. Yet almost all the front office people he's spoken to would vote Trout as the MVP.
Thomas - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#263727) #
And it's not quite the same, but who would you rather have build the Blue Jays? John Farrell or Alex Anthopolous? If I was going to ask one of them to make an evaluation between the performance of two players, I know who I'd ask.
John Northey - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#263729) #
WAR is nice but there are multiple version and other tools too.

FanGraphs WAR:
NL Leaders: Braun 7.8, McCutchen 7.4, Posey 7.0, Wright 7.0
AL Leaders: Trout 9.5, Cabrera 6.9, Verlander 6.2, Cano 6.0

Baseball Reference WAR:
NL Leaders: Braun 6.8, Molina/McCutchen 6.7 each, rest 6.3 or less
AL Leaders: Trout 10.4, Verlander 6.9, Cano/Cabrerea 6.6 each

Note how FanGraphs has 4 NL'ers better than all but Trout, 8 who are better than all but Trout & Cabrera & Verlander while B-R has 2 AL'ers better than all NL'ers and 4 better than all but 3. FG has Molina as an also ran, but BR has him as just 0.1 back. Verlander is in 2nd for BR but him at 6.2, well back.

Also noteworthy is both systems have the MVP's as Braun & Trout, with Trout being a mile ahead of the field. Braun has nearly no shot I figure (this isn't the NFL where they don't care about drugs) and the Pirates collapse kills McCutchen (although it didn't kill George Bell's shot in 1987). Posey or Molina would be my bet with Posey being the favourite due to the Giants being playoff bound for certain while the Cards are in a battle (not a big one, but a battle) for the 2nd wildcard.
Mick Doherty - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#263730) #

I realize that all this might be pretty curmudgeonly of me. (Whoa. Did I just invent a word?)

Nope, Mags. You've pulled a fair share of "words" out of that aforementioned nether orifice of yours in recent (and not-so-recent) postings, but "curmudgeonly" is, in fact, a proper English term.

So there! :-)

Mike Green - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#263731) #
There are two 20 year old centerfielders who had comparable seasons to Trout.  Mantle and Cobb.  But Trout was born in August (and did a lot of his damage at age 21) whereas Mantle was born in October and Cobb in December.  Trout's career is certain to be less valuable than that of Mantle or Cobb! He's got less than a 50% chance of being an inner circle Hall of Famer...
greenfrog - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#263732) #
Cabrera might drive in 140 this year (at his current pace, he's projected to play 161 games).

Meanwhile, Trout is on pace to score 129 runs in 137 games. Had he played a full season (say, 161 games), his projected runs scored total would be 152 (actually 151.6) runs. While "RBIs drive big cars," as Hinske liked to say, that is very, very impressive. To put it into perspective, Rickey Henderson never scored more than 146 runs. Robbie Alomar topped out at 138 runs, Ty Cobb at 147, A-Rod at 143, Tim Raines at 133, Pete Rose at 130.

Trout is my MVP (for reasons of sheer excellence across the categories of offense, defence and base running). Cabrera is having a very fine season, but Trout is having a better one.
greenfrog - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#263733) #
Also, why is my iMac automatically changing "baserunning" into "base running" when I type? So much for computer "literacy."
dalimon5 - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#263734) #
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/columnists/view/20120922mike_trout_makes_history_multidimensional_miguel_cabrera_is_one-dimensional/srvc=sports&position=also
greenfrog - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#263735) #
Off-topic, but this might be useful starting-point material for a future thread. Jim Bowden's top-ten managerial candidates (ESPN Insider, so I'm omitting all of the commentary):

Ryne Sandburg
Dave Martinez
Mike Maddux
Bo Porter
Tim Bogar
Joe McEwing
Pat Listach
Torey Lovullo
DeMarlo Hale
Terry Francona

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post?id=5015
Oceanbound - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#263736) #
I have to wonder how much of the Cabrera for MVP crowd is influenced by the belief that a rook like Trout hasn't earned the right to be MVP yet.
Chuck - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#263737) #

so I'm omitting all of the commentary

Because it is Jim Bowden, thank you.

 

hypobole - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#263738) #
Chuck, that sounds like the kneejerk reaction you see in every Bowden column in the comments section. Bowden has his strengths and weaknesses. Anything SABR related seems to be out of his league, but on certain matters, such as his predictions of FA deals last winter, he was extremely accurate.
Chuck - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#263739) #
I'm willing to ignore all Jim Bowden and risk missing the odd pearl.
greenfrog - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#263740) #
and risk missing the odd pearl

The Jays missed an odd pearl in the 2009 draft, when they chose Chad Jenkins instead of the guy chosen five picks later. But hey, I'm sure they don't mind.
greenfrog - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#263741) #
BJ Upton second half (before today's game): 252/304/535

Colby Rasmus second half: 181/242/284

You can't sugarcoat it - since June, Rasmus has barely been keeping afloat. If his ceiling really is a 700 OPS (and he has fallen well short of that mark in each of the last three months), he isn't going to last.
Chuck - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#263742) #

By this time of the year I'm long past the point where I've had more than my fill of Buck Martinez and Pat Tabler and can only hope that even half of the brain cells that have been destroyed on their watch regenerate over the off-season.

As is their wont, team defense is measured in exactly one way: number of errors. The Rays lead the AL in errors. Ipso facto, their team defense is poor. No mention is made that the Rays' defense is tied for second best in the majors in turning balls in play into outs.

Chuck - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#263744) #
I stand corrected. TB's defensive effiency is 4th in the AL, 6th in the majors. Their opponent BABIP is 2nd in the majors which is what I was mistakenly looking at.

Still, the characterization of their team defense as worst in the league is nowhere near accurate.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#263745) #
BJ Upton second half (before today's game): 252/304/535

Colby Rasmus second half: 181/242/284


You can't sugarcoat it - since June, Rasmus has barely been keeping afloat. If his ceiling really is a 700 OPS (and he has fallen well short of that mark in each of the last three months), he isn't going to last.


Yeah.  Rasmus is still young, and there's a lot o thunder in that bat, but he's a whole block of WTF at this point.  If Mottola is co-hitting coach next year as has been suggested, I'd like to see what he can do with Colby.  If he turns in another year like this one, he could be on the way out.
robertdudek - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#263746) #
There are two 20 year old centerfielders who had comparable seasons to Trout Mantle and Cobb But Trout was born in August (and did a lot of his damage at age 21) whereas Mantle was born in October and Cobb in December Trout's career is certain to be less valuable than that of Mantle or Cobb! He's got less than a 50% chance of being an inner circle Hall of Famer...

Care to explain the bolded part, Mike?
robertdudek - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#263747) #
I suspect sometimes that the convenience of having a single integer catch-all makes us a little lazy.

Do you mean a "catch-all" as in saying that one season is "as good as" another, or do you mean something different.
robertdudek - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#263748) #
My position is that no 20-year old, or 21 year old or 22 year old has ever had a season as good as Mike Trout.

Can anyone provide any actual evidence to cast doubt on that assertion? Or should the rules of logic and evidence be thrown out the window.

Go ahead, give me your best Karl Popper and falsify my assertion.

robertdudek - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#263749) #
There are two 20 year old centerfielders who had comparable seasons to Trout.

What do you mean by "comparable"? Do you mean  - of similar quality/value or do you mean that the type of player is similar. If the former, I'd like to see your evidence; if the latter, I think there are plenty of differences between these ballplayers to make them not particularly comparable.
Hodgie - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#263750) #
Re: Rasmus

For what it is worth, after today's game Rasmus' wRC+ on the year stands at 85. The heretofore over-matched Anthony Gose ....... 79.

John Northey - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#263751) #
Not sure how you get those figures so fast Hodgie, guess they can be figured out by hand. Pre-today's game (via FanGraphs) I get the following...
Player: wRC+, wOBA, OPS+ (B-R)
Rasmus: 87, 300, 88
Gose: 74, 283, 61
Sierra: 92, 307, 87
and for fun...
Snider: 97, 314, 96
Thames: 81, 288, 84
Mastroianni: 103, 322, 90

Gose was 2-4 with a double today, Sierra 0-4, Rasmus 0-4.

Sierra, pre today, actually was the best hitting of the 3 by all 3 measures. Snider was better than all of them though, while Mastroianni was better still by 2 of the 3 measures. Bet you could've made money betting on Mastroianni having the best wRC+ and wOBA of all those those players assuming 100+ PA each.

Funny how Griffin was talking about extending Rasmus earlier but now probably wouldn't admit to it. It would take a lot of guts to do a long term deal with him now - although if you did you'd get a discount vs waiting until he has a good year again. Seems clear Rasmus, unless something changes, is a 90 OPS+ hitter who is slg heavy. Useful, but not a key piece going forward unless he is an amazing defensive player.

If AA is tired of underperformance I wouldn't be shocked to see Rasmus traded before he gets too old for 'potential' to matter. A team stuck deep in the basement of their division, such as Houston, might be worth talking to about a 'potential package' of Rasmus/Escobar/Lind as all 3 have shown All-Star level talent before but all 3 are slumping bad this year (Rasmus for 2 years, I won't get into Lind). Who'd replace them? Now there is the big challenge. Clear holes are LF/2B/1B or DH (EE at one, someone at the other). Trade Rasmus & Escobar and SS and CF are open too. If you really believe in Gose & Hech then they take over CF & SS respectively, and you still have 3 holes to fill. If you feel Rasmus & Escobar will recover then Gose to LF and Hech to 2B allows you to focus on 1B or DH plus the starting rotation.

Not an easy decision to make. Mediocre is the deadliest thing to be - just ask Ash or JPR. From contenders in June to having just 2 teams worse in the AL (Min & KC), 4 teams in the NL (Miami, Cubs, Colorado, Houston). Hard to believe people were thinking the Marlins could be in the playoffs and some silly person thinking the Rockies could (oops).
greenfrog - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#263752) #
Maybe Rasmus and a few others (Lawrie?) can spend some time with Luis Mercedes, Cano's hitting coach, this off-season.

http://blogs.eagletribune.com/smittyonbaseball/2012/07/29/q-and-a-edwin-encarnacion-talks-about-hitting-being-friends-with-pujols-and-more/

Eagle-Tribune: Did you do anything differently this past offseason to help make yourself a better hitter?

Encarnacion: Definitely, yes. I worked out with Luis Mercedes, the same hitting coach of Robinson Cano. We worked out this offseason, and I think that’s all the difference for me for this year. He made me get my swing shorter and finish with two hands so I can stay more inside the ball.
James W - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#263753) #
While it's not my place to speak for Mike Green, I read the bolded sentence (and the following one) as being facetious.

If you start setting the bar at players like Mantle or Cobb, you've got a pretty good chance of ending up below that bar.
Hodgie - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#263754) #
John, you can get up to the minute updates via Fangraphs player pages (at the top). For the more OCD among us the updates are live, or so I have heard.
John Northey - Sunday, September 23 2012 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#263755) #
Luis Mercedes doesn't appear to be connected to any particular team at the moment. Wonder if the Jays would be smart to offer him a job as a roving instructor - based in the Dominican where he lives but having the odd flight into the US or Canada to coach guys (spring and a trip mid-season) plus doing work in the winter by guys flying down to his area to work out. No coach will be ideal for all, but if it keeps Encarnacion on track I'd offer him a $100k a year just to keep him available - it would clearly pay off handsomely if he helps just one player or keeps EE on track for one more year.

In truth, I've felt a personal hitting coach for each ML player would easily be worth $100-200k each for a club. $2.5 mil=$5 mil and it might be able to help guys do better while the ML hitting coach keeps an eye on the in-game stuff and co-ordinates with the other coaches. The individual coaches could even just be 'eyes in the sky' for the 'real' hitting coach, providing guidance on details that he might not have time for with each guy.
TamRa - Monday, September 24 2012 @ 04:04 AM EDT (#263756) #
there would definitely be something to that in the sense that you could give them scouting duties or some other work when there main focus wasn't at bat.

The caution would be, though, that you'd want to avoid the committee effect. Start giving a guy too many mixed messages and you can really do a number on his head. In such a situation I might even make sure the on-staff "hitting coach" did almost nothing in terms of teaching hitting but was just a facilitator for the work the players needed to do in accordance with their individual plans.



TamRa - Monday, September 24 2012 @ 04:09 AM EDT (#263757) #
Seems clear Rasmus, unless something changes...

He was 25 this year. there's every possibility things change.

See for reference: Gordon, Alex (among others)

not to say it's a lock, of course, but I'd argue we're a LONG way from saying "this is all Rasmus is"



John Northey - Monday, September 24 2012 @ 06:13 AM EDT (#263758) #
I remember years ago doing a study that showed players, as a rule, once they made the majors would have 2 seasons that were 20 OPS+ points below their average and 2 seasons that were 20 OPS+ points above with the rest being in eyeshot of their average. The peak year could come as early as 21 or even in the mid-30's (pre-Bonds).

For an example, A-Rod: average is 143, over 163: 2 years, below 123: 3 full and 2 partial (59, 149 PA) over 19 years. His 2 most recent both being below average. Before that his last year sub-par was at age 21. Often guys retire after that but he has, literally, $114+ million reasons to keep going ($30+ for reaching milestone home runs). Another long term Yankee, Jeter, has one year more than 20 over, and 1 full and 1 partial sub (partial is just 51 PA).

Now, use this rule on Rasmus: He has 3 years between 88 and 89 OPS+ and one year at 132. That puts too many at 88/89 for that not to be in his range so his mid-point best case would be 88+20 = 108 OPS+. More likely his mid-point will end up being sub-100 though at this stage I suspect.

Now, +/- 20 OPS+ points is a heck of a range I admit, but using it shows Rasmus has a very limited peak potential, that his 132 is one of his outliers thus a multi-season all-star or HOF'er he won't be. If this season was a 120 we'd have hope that he just had 2 bad years early on and would not have another until much later. Sadly, those years are now strongly looking like part of the range. Of course, that range includes 120 seasons so there is hope he can be very valuable still but on average we should not expect more than a 105 OPS+ which, if he is moved to LF or RF for Gose, will not be that valuable.
Mike Green - Monday, September 24 2012 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#263759) #
Care to explain the bolded part, Mike?

It was my off-centre sense of humour, Robert (hence, the exclamation mark).  I really have no idea how good idea Trout might be.  When a career starts and you see the possibility of a player who is an amalgam of Cobb, Mantle and Mays (lower peak than Mantle but a longer career, more D than Mantle and Cobb but less than Mays), rational analysis seems a little cold for the task.  Now comparing Albert Pujols with Jimmie Foxx and Lou Gehrig is a whole other story...
Richard S.S. - Monday, September 24 2012 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#263760) #

To evaluate Prospects for the purpose of trade, no two G.M.s will have the same opinion on anyone.   The player(s) acquired will vary according to the caliber of prospects required, with each G.M. looking for different things.   A.A. will be looking for a top-of-the-rotation acquisition in trade.   What he will have to give up in trade will vary depending on the G.M. involved.   What A.A. has to offer:

1) Will not include Yunel Escobar as the quality-plus value he once had (MLB-quality SS, with team-friendly contract, and up to 3 years of control) has plummeted or depressed any value he once had.   At present he's at the PTBNL or Cash value in a trade, at best a lower-level 2nd-tier prospect.

2) Will include Mlb-Ready Prospects such as Adeiny Hechavarria, Anthony Gose, Travis d'Arnaud and even Moises Sierra have top trade value (Hech, Gose and Sierra gained value with MLB experience).   These are the players most G.M.s are interested in.

3) I really don't have any idea of who interests who.   A.A. will be the one to know which of our other prospects are available.   (As for last year's Latos and Gonzales trades, it's possible A.A. didn't have the right people to trade.)

 

At present, Toronto has the #7 pick in next year's draft (which is of little interest to anyone).   Toronto will go over two million fans in their final homestand (which also interests no one).   And I can't think of any thing else to make these last view games pass easier.

greenfrog - Monday, September 24 2012 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#263761) #
Rasmus could still turn it around, but the trend this year (second half collapse) is not good. If his new unorthodox batting stance made sense, you would think he would be starting to consolidate at this point. Instead, other teams seem to have figured out a way to exploit it (hard stuff in, pitches away, breaking stuff down).

In any case, yes, give him a full chance to get untracked. Unfortunately, he's going to be a free agent in 2015, so if he figures it out in 2014, he might not be back after the season.
John Northey - Monday, September 24 2012 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#263762) #
Thinking about 2013, what free agents could be worth checking out for the holes at 1B/2B/LF/starting pitching? Using http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=177

1B...
Lance Berkman: over 100 OPS+ every year but his first, 128 this year, but loves St Louis.
Jason Giambi: under 100 OPS+ 3 of past 4 years, no interest
Casey Kotchman: 2 good seasons, 4 bad ones, no interest
Carlos Lee: Down to a 91 OPS+ for 2nd of 3 seasons
James Loney: see Carlos Lee but just 74 this year
Mike Napoli: Back to normal, 111 OPS+ vs career 127 (boosted by last season) - at age 30 will be looking for big payday.
David Ortiz: would be shocked if not in Boston
Carlos Pena: Remember when people thought the Jays should've signed him? 96 OPS+ now
Jim Thome: 41 years old, 116 OPS+ as PH/DH

Gotta say, none of those jump out at me outside of Ortiz (170 OPS+ this year) and Berkman but both are very happy where they are so I don't see it for either.

Anyone up to digging into the other slots?
greenfrog - Monday, September 24 2012 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#263763) #
Someone like Willingham to play DH/LF (while EE mans 1B) could be a good option. But Willingham would only make sense if the Jays were really going for it in 2013 and 2014, as he wouldn't come cheap (maybe Nicolino and a couple of lesser prospects?).

Probably better to try to identify the next Willingham, rather than pay a premium for the current one.
John Northey - Monday, September 24 2012 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#263764) #
Quick thought - Melky Cabrera, would you sign him? From age 20 to 25 he was a sub-100 OPS+ hitter, backup outfielder. Then had a 121 in KC and this year was at 157 in San Francisco before he was caught on drugs. Just entering his age 28 season, plays LF/RF/CF thus isn't a stone glove (CF main position in 2011) but ratings aren't great. Depends on steroid discount I guess.

B.J. Upton also interesting - CF with a 105 lifetime OPS+ but just entering his age 28 season next year and you'd steal him from the Rays.

Starting pitchers in the 20's (figuring AA is after youth)...
29 going on 30: Edwin Jackson, Francisco Liriano, Brandon McCarthy, Anibal Sanchez, Carlos Villanueva

Liriano is an interesting risk candidate, Jackson the most stable of that group.
Chuck - Monday, September 24 2012 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#263765) #

Lance Berkman: over 100 OPS+ every year but his first, 128 this year, but loves St Louis.

I have read that it's either retirement (likely) or a swan song in Houston as DH.

Thomas - Monday, September 24 2012 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#263766) #
That's what I've heard about Berkman, too. As much as he loves St. Louis, he loves Houston even more. But, man, that's a depressing franchise to go to for a veteran on a last hurrah. Still, he'd get to DH, which may convince him he could handle another season.
greenfrog - Monday, September 24 2012 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#263767) #
I see several potential strategies for the Jays this off-season:

1. The "Cincinnati" strategy: trade top prospects for a young controllable front-rotation SP (like Latos). Trade more prospects to further bolster your staff (Sean Marshall)

2. The "Baltimore" strategy: keep all of your top prospects; root around for some unheralded but useful mid-rotation candidates in the FA, IFA and trade markets - try to piece together a wild card contender with duct tape, string, bubblegum, etc.

3. The hybrid "Washington" strategy: trade prospects for a talented young SP (like Gio) but also sign a capable FA starter (Edwin Jackson)

4. The throw-caution-to-the-wind or "Miami" strategy: overpay for a bunch of free agents and hope for more good than bad

5. The "Oakland" strategy: trade your key marketable commodities (Gio, Cahill, Bailey) for prospects and other pieces, all the while stealthily building a playoff contender

Of course, these aren't perfect Platonic models (Cincy also signed a pricey FA closer in Madson), but they are a few templates for how AA might approach the off-season. Personally, I'm inclined towards #2 (maybe even #5), which keeps the long-term plan intact. I don't want to go through another 20-year drought if the next year or two doesn't work out.
Mike Green - Monday, September 24 2012 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#263768) #
It is funny that the Rays are so far behind their Pythagorean (5 games short), with a good bullpen and Maddon managing.  The 2008 club which went to the World Series was probably no better than this one, but outperformed Pythagoras by 5 games. 
Magpie - Monday, September 24 2012 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#263772) #
It is funny that the Rays are so far behind their Pythagorean (5 games short), with a good bullpen and Maddon managing.

Just bad luck, that's all. They're 20-26 in one-run games, and a good bullpen and a good manager guarantees absolutely nothing in one-run games.
TamRa - Monday, September 24 2012 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#263773) #
was reported last wee the Jays were scouting Anibel Sanchez and Brett Anderson during the Oakland/Detroit game.

I have a little trouble believing they could get Sanchez in under their 5 year ceiling but, in theory, adding those two would be a complete game changer.

TamRa - Monday, September 24 2012 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#263774) #
"1B..."

If the Nats let LaRoache go, he'd jump to the top of that list maybe.

there's not a lot of options I like, and i don't have time to review my list but...for LF I like Nick Swisher if the Yankees unexpectedly hesitated on him, for 2B there are no "good" free agent options and frankly, pressuring Esco to slide over (given his poor ability to take a stand right now) would be better than any of them but if you were going that way - Infante, Keppinger, and Scutaro are basically your only decent choices.


Oh, and I'm not really averse to Cabrera, particularly at a discount in years/dollars...but I have a feeling the Jays will steer clear.
TamRa - Monday, September 24 2012 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#263775) #
Rasmus could still turn it around, but the trend this year (second half collapse) is not good. If his new unorthodox batting stance made sense, you would think he would be starting to consolidate at this point. Instead, other teams seem to have figured out a way to exploit it (hard stuff in, pitches away, breaking stuff down).

In any case, yes, give him a full chance to get untracked. Unfortunately, he's going to be a free agent in 2015, so if he figures it out in 2014, he might not be back after the season.


My understanding is that Rasmus has been playing through groin issues pretty much the whole second half - is this untrue?

(might also account somewhat for Johnson's lousey season too, but Johnson doesn't have Rasmus' theoretical upside.
Mike Green - Monday, September 24 2012 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#263776) #
Just bad luck, that's all. They're 20-26 in one-run games, and a good bullpen and a good manager guarantees absolutely nothing in one-run games.

I agree.  A good bullpen and a good manager may help your odds some, but perhaps not as much as we might think. 
John Northey - Monday, September 24 2012 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#263777) #
I see the good pen as reducing runs allowed, thus creating more close games (or blowouts in your favour). Too much effort is put into trying to understand 1 run games.

In 1992 the Jays with Ward/Henke and many other top relievers (Wells, Timlin, Eichhorn) they were playing 583 ball vs an overall record at 593. In 1998 with a pen including closer Myers (dumped late in season), Quantrill/Pleasac (good), and Risley/Pearson (horrid) they played at a 622 clip vs overall 543. Go figure.
Chuck - Monday, September 24 2012 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#263778) #

A good bullpen and a good manager may help your odds some, but perhaps not as much as we might think. 

Wrong, Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.

Buck Showalter is inspiring his team as if he were friggin' Tony Robbins. The Orioles are 16-2 in extra innings and 27-9 in 1-run games. And they'll surely repeat this next year to prove their detractors wrong. Right? Right? They will, won't they? C'mon, we've got a Hollywood narrative here. Don't go and mess it with your cold-hearted mathematics and statistical variance and whatnot.

 

greenfrog - Monday, September 24 2012 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#263779) #
My understanding is that Rasmus has been playing through groin issues pretty much the whole second half - is this untrue?

Not to be unduly cheeky, but was he also playing through groin issues during the second half last year, when he hit 182/230/344?

If he has been playing through groin issues in 2012, why haven't the Jays rested him in what is clearly a non-contending season?

And if Rasmus, Lawrie, Johnson, Lind and Escobar - all of whom are 30 or younger - have dealt with significant groin, back and/or oblique issues this season, what does this say about the calibre of the playing surface in the RC?
ayjackson - Monday, September 24 2012 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#263781) #

The hybrid "Washington" strategy: trade prospects for a talented young SP (like Gio) but also sign a capable FA starter (Edwin Jackson)

I'm ayjackson, and I endorse this strategy.

Mike Green - Monday, September 24 2012 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#263782) #
I am tomthomson, and I endorse the strategy as well.  With the proviso that a capable DH is also acquired and Adam Lind assigned to paint beautiful landscapes in a remote location. 
Waveburner - Monday, September 24 2012 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#263784) #

I'm beginning to believe John Farrell is among the worst managers the Jays have ever employed at handling pitchers.

Seriously what on earther was he thinking today? Romero has been awful most of the season and was struggling with command big time in the fifth, walking the bases loaded after a double. He somehow flukes his way out of it and is now through five innings in line for a win and sitting at 93 pitches.

So what do you do? Well send him out again of course. To face three more batters while not recording an out. But at least he made it to that magical 100 pitch mark, right Farrell? 

I'd really be happy to see him go, whether they can swindle compensation out of the Red Sox or not.

John Northey - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 12:51 AM EDT (#263785) #
For free agents, FanGraphs has a leaderboard for potential free agents which is nice to go through.

Tops for WAR? Michael Bourn Atlanta's CF. 4 years in a row of 4+ WAR despite OPS+ sub 100 in all but one season (103 last year). That is a very valuable player who might be undervalued. Trade Rasmus for whatever, put Bourn in CF with Gose fighting to move there as well with one of them in LF. His value from FG is in the $20 mil range, but that low OPS+ might keep his price down. He'll be interesting.

At 2B Scutaro is #1 with 2.1 WAR and no one else over 1. Might be cheap and worth getting.

Adam LaRoche is #1 at 1B at 3.3 (next is 1.8). 114 lifetime OPS+, entering age 33 season...hrm...he is tempting but only on a short deal.

Hmm... What about Ichiro? Of course with Gose & Davis we already have him and a lot cheaper.

Starters we already know - Greinke and Peavy top of group, Hiroki Kuroda among others on the next tier. Kyle Lohse is interesting with his solid control (sub 2 BB/9), Ryan Dempster always interesting too. Anibal Sanchez has a poor ERA and poor W-L but solid FIP and xFIP so he'd be a tempting target too. 7 guys in the 2's, 4 in the 3's, and the 2 in the 4's. Not a ton out there but some that could be good targets.
China fan - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 06:39 AM EDT (#263786) #
"....Seriously what on earther was he thinking today? Romero has been awful most of the season....."

It's not such a mystery, if you give it any thought. There's a pretty simple explanation. It was a meaningless September game, and nobody really cares about the win. The only important thing is helping Romero to figure things out, so that he's ready for next season. You don't do that by yanking him after 5 innings. Romero was routinely capable of throwing over 100 pitches a game in the last couple of seasons, so why prevent him from doing that yesterday? Farrell obviously knows that Romero needs to develop the confidence to throw 100 pitches, even in close games. Helping Romero to overcome his difficulties and prepare for 2013 was far more important than who wins the game. If the Jays were in a playoff race, Romero would be in a shorter leash, but not in a meaningless game.

Incidentally, judging by Twitter, many fans thought Farrell was an idiot for calling in Lincoln with the bases loaded and nobody out. If the Orioles had won the game, many people would be outraged at Farrell's decision. But Lincoln did the job, and the Jays won. It would be nice if Farrell's critics would be fair enough to praise him for the decisions that work too.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 07:50 AM EDT (#263789) #
Why give Farrell credit for making the right decision when that's his job. When he makes the lucky decision you should, however, give him credit.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#263790) #
Frankly, the free agent market looks pretty crap for the most part. I would give Greinke 6/$130M but that's about it (he'll undoubtedly get a bigger contract than that). Maybe Peavy if you can get him for 3 years (he'll probably get four). Maybe Jackson if his market value hasn't inflated too much this year.

Keep in mind that a ton of good-to-excellent pending FAs were recently locked up: Hamels, Cain, Phillips, Molina, Aybar, Quentin (plus of course Votto, who wasn't yet a pending FA). And there's no Darvish available this year.

I honestly think just about everyone else is a pipe dream (either they're not very good, or they're (a) likely to prefer another destination or (b) going to cost more than the Jays are or should be willing to pay - e.g., Swisher, Sanchez). There is a lot of money flowing in baseball right now and there are going to be some questionable acquisitions this winter by teams desperate to get in on the playoff races. The scrimping Jays are going to be dealing with a lot of sticker shock.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#263791) #
One more competitor for starting pitching this off-season, per MLBTR:

Royals owner David Glass wants his team’s starting rotation to improve in 2013, and he’s prepared to spend if that’s what it takes to upgrade the Kansas City pitching staff. Glass told Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star that the starting rotation will get better in 2013.

“What I’ve always said is when we get to the point where we’re competitive,” Glass said, “we’ll do what we have to do to improve our position. Yes, we’ll do what we need to do. We are committed to improving our starting pitching.

Glass said the Royals will contend if they can upgrade their rotation. The bullpen and position players “stack it up against anybody” in the American League Central in Glass’ estimation. The owner indicated a willingness to operate at a loss from a financial standpoint if necessary.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#263792) #
Q: would you pick up Rajai Davis' 3 million option for 2013 (the buyout is 500K)?
China fan - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#263802) #
It's a good question for a poll, Mike. And obviously it depends somewhat on the payroll parameters, since I wouldn't give $3-million to Davis if it prevented the Jays from signing a good starting pitcher -- although you'd have to think that the Jays aren't miserly enough to refrain from a key acquisition because they lacked $3-million. So, yes, I'd keep Davis for next season for $3-million, on the assumption that the Jays can easily afford it and Davis is a pretty good 4th OF and pinch-runner at a minimum. I'm also assuming that Davis isn't the full-time LF next season.
robertdudek - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#263804) #
Q: would you pick up Rajai Davis' 3 million option for 2013 (the buyout is 500K)?


Yes. I think he is a valuable 4th outfielder and since the minimum salary is something like 400K that is a net spending of only 2.1 million. Not bad for a proven commodity in his prime years.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#263806) #
Easily I'd pick up Davis' option. Marginal cost is $2.5 million ($3 mil less the $500k buyout as you must spend $500k no matter what). In truth it is more like $2 mil as you have to have someone use that roster slot. So is he worth $2 million more than a AAAA guy? I would think so.

FanGraphs though doesn't. In his 2 years as a Jay they list Davis as a negative value last year ($1 mil to the bad) and +$2 mil this year. His fielding and hitting are both negatives both years while his baserunning is a major positive both years. However, from 2007-2010 he easily was worth $2+ mil over a replacement level player. Entering age 32 season so he is probably near the end but still useful if his defense is seen as decent by the coaches.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#263807) #
I would do, too.   I wouldn't say that he is a good 4th outfielder at this point in his career, though.  He has hit pretty poorly each of the last 2 years, and he doesn't contribute that much with the glove either (Magpie would say that he is terrible; I would split the difference between the observations and the statistics). The role he is good enough for is the platoon outfielder/pinch-hitter.  He shouldn't get more than 230 PAs in a season, with no more than 60 PAs against RHPs.

What the question illustrates is payroll expectations.  If you are going to pay 3 million (2.1 net) for that kind of performance, what does that say about what a competitive payroll ought to be.

Chuck - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#263808) #
I think the risk of signing Davis is that he somehow becomes the team's starting LF in 2013. If he's not around then he can't serve as an unofficial Plan B.
China fan - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#263811) #
Chuck, I don't get the logic. Do you prefer a 4th OF who is worse than Davis -- i.e., so bad that he could never be perceived as a possible starter -- to prevent the possibility of ever having the 4th OF pressed into duty as the starter? Isn't it better to have a 4th OF who could be -- if you squint hard enough -- a possible starter or temporary injury replacement for a few games?

Or are you suggesting that a $3-million salary would automatically create a temptation to make him a regular? Not sure if I'd agree with that either.

The only way to prevent the 4th OF from ever becoming a starting OF is to have one who is so bad that he can't ever be perceived that way. And I don't think we want that.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#263813) #
The GM was responsible for the shortage of LF options this year.  In 2013, assuming that Gose is not ready to start the season anyway, you can add LHH left-fielder to DH, second base, and two starters to the shopping list.  And the budget for that will be...
CeeBee - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#263815) #
I'd pick up the option and use him as the 4th outfielder/pinch runner. He can play all 3 outfield positions without looking too terrible and that + his speed should be worth it.
China fan - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#263820) #
"....In 2013, assuming that Gose is not ready to start the season anyway, you can add LHH left-fielder to DH, second base, and two starters to the shopping list...."

Which is almost exactly what Ken Rosenthal has just reported. That's the shopping list, and Rosenthal says that Anthopoulos will be aggressively trying to fill those needs. That's good news -- if he has enough money to do it.

The shopping list is fairly obvious. And the Jays are declaring their intentions to do it. Now we'll see. If they fail to do most of their intended shopping, we'll know that the money isn't there. But, to be fair, let's wait and see. It's a much bigger test than the last off-season, when the Jays could have conceivably seen themselves as still rebuilding.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#263822) #
Well, I felt that the club was a lot closer in the 2011-12 off-season than they are now. 
Chuck - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#263824) #

Chuck, I don't get the logic. Do you prefer a 4th OF who is worse than Davis -- i.e., so bad that he could never be perceived as a possible starter -- to prevent the possibility of ever having the 4th OF pressed into duty as the starter?

Davis is little better than replacement level which does not warrant a few million dollars. So he's overpriced for what he brings, and on a team with dreaded payroll parameters, that's money not well spent.

And the organization has seen fit to give him 800 PAs in two seasons suggesting that he looks to them like a plan B starter, not a reserve pressed into duty. If he were signed it would be an indication to me that the team is less than serious about addressing their LF need. They could yabber in the off-season how he's really a 4th outfielder, but I personally would anticipate another 400 PAs of replacement level performance in 2013 when a real LF wasn't signed.

By not signing Davis they would be forcing themselves to address LF properly.

John Northey - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#263825) #
Is the team above average at the various slots other than LF/2B/DH and 2 starters? Position:tOPS+ (OPS+ vs league average):Player OPS+

CA:94:JPA 86 /Mathis 68
1B:113:Encarnacion 152
2B:88:Hechavarria 73
3B:101:Lawrie 93
SS:86:Escobar 74
LF:105:Gose 62 /Davis 79
CF:108:Rasmus 86
RF:104:Bautista 136
DH:109:Lind 86

Ugh. So well above at RF/1B. Within 10 at 3B & CA, within 15 at 2B & SS, 20+ off at LF/CF/DH

This suggests a CF might be needed more than someone at 2B if you assume Hech hits like he has so far. In truth I'd hold out more hope for all 3 of Escobar/Hech/JPA reaching average (for their position) than any one of Gose/Davis/Rasmus/Lind in 2013.

Rotation with ERA+ (100 is league average of course, 95 solid for starters).
Morrow: 130 (woohoo)
Romero: 74 (yikes)
Alvarez: 87 (meh)
Happ: 92 (meh)
er... is there a 5th who isn't a pending free agent?
Given the Jays aren't going to a 4 man rotation I'd put this super high on the list. Given the guy expected to be the ace has been horrid this year I'd also say this becomes a priority area. Happ has 3 years of 118+ ERA+ behind him, Alvarez has the skills and is very young so both have hope but Romero...ugh...lets hope.
China fan - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#263826) #
But the obvious solution is for the Jays to acquire a good starting LF and also keep Davis as a back-up, no?

This, incidentally, is what Rosenthal is saying -- that LF is on the shopping list. (I don't think LF would be on the shopping list if the Jays were content with having Davis as the starter next season.)
China fan - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#263827) #
(The above comment was in response to Chuck's post.)
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#263829) #
By not signing Davis they would be forcing themselves to address LF properly.

Assuming that there is an actual answer available, within "payroll parameters". What if all the "definitely better" players start at $10M+ and are signed at way-over-value?

Then, if we cut Davis, we're forced to use Gose/Sierra in LF - same as today.

Incidentally - Sierra has an OPS of 872 in 50 AB against LHP. Gose is 696 IIRC. Both are around 599 against RHP.

What we need is a left-hitting player who hits RHP well to platoon with Sierra for a year or two until he learns to handle RHP. Don't look now, but Adam Lind has managed a 768 OPS in 200+ PA this year against RHP. Assuming that the platoon is never perfect, it might be worth around a 750-775 OPS combined from LF next year (modulo below-average defense), for basically a sunk cost. That might be plan C...


Chuck - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#263830) #

But the obvious solution is for the Jays to acquire a good starting LF and also keep Davis as a back-up, no?

It would be, except that I don't trust them to do that. I think that having Davis around gives them the sense that LF is a little less urgent of a problem. I may be 100% wrong and overly cynical about this, but that's my fear, Rosenthal's characterization of AA's off-season to-do list notwithstanding.

Base stealers are easy to sell to the public (Zaun, for instance, calls Davis a "game changer") and often too much temptation for a team where other more expensive skills, like getting on base and hitting with power, are truly needed.

TamRa - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#263842) #
Not to be unduly cheeky, but was he also playing through groin issues during the second half last year, when he hit 182/230/344?

I think most everyone would agree that the post-trade period last year was basically a write-off in terms of his performasnce. the team basically admitted he needed fixing but they didn't have time to do much about it.


If he has been playing through groin issues in 2012, why haven't the Jays rested him in what is clearly a non-contending season?


Most of that was during the period when Bautista, Lind, and Lawrie were all already out of the lineup and they were desperate for warm bodies.  That's not the case now, but it's not impossible the pain might have led to bad habits which lingered after the injury? I really don't know, just spitballing so to speak. I do worry that the "very hot/very cold" pattern looks too much like Lind for my comfort.


And if Rasmus, Lawrie, Johnson, Lind and Escobar - all of whom are 30 or younger - have dealt with significant groin, back and/or oblique issues this season, what does this say about the calibre of the playing surface in the RC?

No argument from me on that. i can only hope the team is paying a lot of attention on that point.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#263844) #
The park surface could be a factor. Lets hope they don't address it by saying 'city of Toronto, please pay to fix it even though we own the park and the team'.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#263847) #
The park surface surely has to be a factor. When an opposing team (like Texas this year) rest a bunch of key players during their visit to Toronto, and their manager explicitly says that he has injury concerns about the turf, which his players hate playing on...well, it doesn't seem to be such a subtle problem.

And didn't John McDonald break (or badly sprain) an ankle after catching it in a seam linking two pieces of turf? In my view, the stuff is repellent. It's one reason I increasingly avoid the RC.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#263849) #
And if Rasmus, Lawrie, Johnson, Lind and Escobar have dealt with significant groin, back and/or oblique issues this season, what does this say about the calibre of the playing surface in the RC?

The turf had nothing to do with Lawrie's injury - he hurt himself diving into a camera bay.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#263853) #
I imagine the RC turf isn't helping Lawrie's health record. Per rotoworld (2012):

Aug 27th:

Brett Lawrie (oblique) remains without a timetable to return to game action. Lawrie is going through limited baseball activities after feeling renewed soreness in his oblique last week. "He's still going through strengthening, some range of motion, no full batting practice as of yet, to get back closer to potential game activity," Blue Jays manager John Farrell said. "Every movement on the baseball field, whether it's defensively or offensively, that core area is going to come into play. It can be a little bit of a slippery slope if you go a little bit too fast, and then you set them back even further." It's looking like Lawrie won't return until well into September.

July 8th:

Brett Lawrie (back) is not in the Blue Jays' lineup Sunday. Lawrie left Saturday's game with lower back tightness. "It just kind of kicked in," he said. "From the beginning of the game it was just a little tight. It’s in one spot in my back. I just figured the best thing to do was get out of there." Lawrie had been expecting to play Sunday, but the Jays will play it safe. He should be fine for the start of the second half.

June 20th:

Brett Lawrie left Wednesday's game with right knee soreness. Lawrie hurt himself when he slid into third base in the seventh inning. He said the knee "tensed up" on him, but he doesn't expect to miss any playing time. "It's not enough to make me not play, but at the same time, I just thought it was time to throw some ice on it," he said. "And tomorrow we've got an off-day, which is good. We can obviously treat it tomorrow and ice it all day and then be back in there the next day."

Whether or not the turf is a significant factor, if this is going to be typical of early-20s Lawrie, imagine how he'll be holding up on the concrete in five, ten or fifteen years.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 25 2012 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#263854) #
Q: would you pick up Rajai Davis' 3 million option for 2013 (the buyout is 500K)?

For a really fast Corey Patterson? No. No. No no no. NOOOOO!!!!. Spare me...

greenfrog - Thursday, September 27 2012 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#263939) #
How about declining Davis's option and trading for Peter Bourjos? Fourth OF with significantly better defence than Rajai, and the Jays can use him as a decent stopgap in centre if Rasmus really has gone into the tank.

In the meantime, Gose can spend a half-season or more in Buffalo refining his game (probably a full season in AAA is warranted). I'll be disappointed if Gose is a starting outfielder for the Jays next spring (which, to my mind, would be the product of the Jays' cheapness more than anything, and could well mess up yet another prospect).
John Northey - Thursday, September 27 2012 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#263941) #
Well, there are major differences between Gose and Snider.
Gose: 5 seasons in minors, including 482 PA in AAA and 587 in AA, 574 in A+. First in majors in age 21 season
Snider: 3 seasons in minors, 70 PA in AAA, 423 in AA, 66 in A+

So Gose has 2 more seasons in the minors, over 1000 PA in AA/AAA combined vs Snider's 493 PA in AA/AAA. That is a big difference.

Of course, Gose has hit for a 63 OPS+ so far as a rookie in 163 PA vs Snider's 114 in 80 PA. That means Gose is a lot more likely to say 'hey, I need help to succeed, better listen to those coaches'. Could Gose use more AAA time? Probably. Does he need it as much as Snider did? Don't think so.

Still, for 2013 I agree that a more stable LF would be nice.
greenfrog - Thursday, September 27 2012 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#263943) #
John, are we watching the same games? Gose is talented and fast, but he is clearly not ready to hit consistently in the majors. He may yet get there, but why fast-track him? Why not let him play CF (his natural position) everyday in Buffalo? Or do we need another lesson about promoting prospects too quickly? Saving a buck doesn't seem like much of a justification in the long haul.
ayjackson - Thursday, September 27 2012 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#263949) #
FREE ANTHONY GOSE!

(Too early?)
greenfrog - Friday, September 28 2012 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#263957) #
How about:

FREE THE JAYS' PAYROLL (SO THAT THE TEAM DOESN'T HAVE TO RUSH ITS PROSPECTS TO THE MAJORS)!
Mike Green - Friday, September 28 2012 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#263958) #
If you're talking payroll, you want to choose words that are incapable of misinterpretation.  There is no free lunch.  LIBERATE THE JAYS PURSE-STRINGS NOW...
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